January 2020 has a lot of similarities with January 2017, which is a bit scary. Monthly Toronto real estate market reports with charts and observations.

1. Toronto Real Estate
Market Charts
January 2020
via Pixabay license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
Realtor
Photo by stanbalik

2. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
Introduction
You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??
Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number
you’re seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow
will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is
the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREB’s broader GTA-wide aggregate figures.
I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos,
because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably
more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I
aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.
 indicator points to heating up (favours sellers),  denotes cooling down (favours buyers)

3. Detached $1,370K / Semi $1,004K / Row $987K
Jan vs. '19:  $155K (13.8%)
Jan vs. '15:  $401K (46%)
5 year CAGR:  7.9%
- Detached at $1370K is highest Jan ever, and highest
month since June 2017
- 9 of last 10 months have been >10% YoY (avg 19.5%)
416 Average Sold Price
(dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Condo Apt $679K / Condo Townhouse $697K
Jan vs. '19:  $80K (13.4%)
Jan vs. '15:  $266K (76%)
5 year CAGR:  12.0%
- New record high price for condos
- Condos haven’t had negative YoY since Feb 2015 (59
straight months)
1,119
1,223
1,184
1,2641,282
1,243
1,1541,163
1,2691,2491,2601,264
1,273
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Sold Price - Houses
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
601
618 610
640 649 645 635
621
646
670 660 654
681.3
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Condos (Apt & Town)
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

4. 416 Residential Sales Volume
(number of sold transactions in the month)
Jan vs. '19:  14.8% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  7%)
YTD vs. '19:  15%
- Largest Jan freehold volume since 2017
- 9 of last 10 months +10% or more over prior year
Jan vs. '19:  12.5% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  5% )
YTD vs. '19:  13%
- Highest Jan volume since 2017 and 4th largest Jan ever
- 9 of the last 10 months with higher sales than prior year
927
1,166
1,547
1,835
1,989
1,725
1,852
1,602
1,680
1,811
1,554
1,024
1043
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town)
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 2020 7 Yr Avg
479
687
971
1,366
1,687
1,446
1,225
917
1,289
1,450
1,136
635
550
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 2020 7 Yr Avg

5. 416 Active Listings
(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
Jan vs. '19:  32.6% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  13%)
YTD vs. '19:  33%
- Had been above 7 Yr Avg. all last year, but last 3
months have dropped below
- 2nd lowest Jan ever behind only ridiculous Jan 2017
Jan vs. '19:  29.6% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  45%)
YTD vs. '19:  30%
- Record lowest Jan for last 25 years, and that’s saying
something since WAY less condos in the city then
- Last 6 months has really tightened
- Active Listings around 1,100 less than Jan 7 Yr Avg
1592
1792
2118
2633
2994 2918
2463
2147
2744
2510
1901
1046
1073
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Houses
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 2020 7 Yr Avg
1960
2114
2427
2699
3010 2949
2769
2448
2707
2442
1994
1297
1379
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Condos
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 2020 7 Yr Avg

6. 416 Months Of Inventory
(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)
Jan vs. '19:  1.4 months (-41%)
Jan vs. 7 Yr Avg:  0.2 months (-10%)
- Last 10 months were lower than prior year
- Last 2 months have dipped below 7 year average
- Only 2016 (1.7) and 2017 (1.1) were below in last 18
years
Jan vs. '19:  0.8 months (-37%)
Jan vs. 7 Yr Avg:  1.3 months (-49%)
- 7 months in row below prior year
- Below 2.000 45 of last 47 months
- Record 34 months in row condos < houses. In 254
months before March 2017, this only happened 19
times in total.
3.3
2.6
2.2
1.9
1.8
2.0 2.0
2.3
2.1
1.7 1.7 1.6
2.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 2020 7 Yr Avg
2.1
1.8
1.6 1.5 1.5
1.7
1.5 1.5
1.6
1.3
1.3 1.31.3
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Condos (Apt & Town)
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 2020 7 Yr Avg

7. 416 Average Days On Market
(days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Jan vs. '19:  4.9 days (-16%)
Jan vs. 7 Yr Avg:  0.7 days (3%)
- Back close to 7 year averages after riding above
most of last year
Jan vs. '19:  4.7 days (-17%)
Jan vs. 7 Yr Avg:  8.8 days (-28%)
- 2nd lowest January ever (last 25 years)
- Diverged lower from averages in spring 2016 and has
stayed low since
27
21
19
17 17
19
21 22
20 20 21
25
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Condos (Apt & Town)
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 2020 7 Yr Avg
31
22
18
16 15 16
21
25
17
18
21
29
26
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 2020 7 Yr Avg

8. 416 New Listings
(number of new MLS #s during the month – unfortunately includes re-listed properties)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Jan vs. '19:  14% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  8%)
YTD vs. '19:  14%
- 2nd lowest Jan in last 10 years behind only 2017
- Terminations and re-listings distort this stat
Jan vs. '19:  18% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 24%)
YTD vs. '19:  18%
- Lowest in past 10 years by 100 listings
- Lowest Jan since 2000 (way less condos built then),
after Dec was lowest since 2001
1215
1376
1939
2759
3259
2575
1961
1512
2923
2385
1408
4731043
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Houses
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 2020 7 Yr Avg
1913 1905
2562
2944
3359
2793 2779
2191
2855
2561
1877
8741573
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Condos (Apt & Town)
2014 2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 2020 7 Yr Avg

9. 416 Sold Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥101% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
101% or more of asking Jan vs. '19:  14 pp
Month-over-month:  8 pp
- 18 of last 19 months higher than prior year
- Full year numbers: 2015 47% • 2016 60% • 2017 49% •
2018 34% • 2019 37%
101% or more of asking Jan vs. '19:  21 pp
Month-over-month:  16 pp
- Highest Jan number ever – even > start to 2017
- Condos turned it up last 6 months of 2019
- Days of SOA for a condo being just for unique
properties (11% for all 2015 sales) seem to be gone
(2016 21% • 2017 42% • 2018 27% • 2019 27%)
73%
81%
78%
25%
34%
36%
43%
41%
37%
34%
29%
42% 41%
35%
31%
39%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Houses
2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 6 Yr Avg
71%
74%
21%
24%
26%
31% 29% 28%
25% 25%
28% 27% 28%
26%
42%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Condos
2015 2016 2017 2018
2019 2020 6 Yr Avg

10. 416 Detached/Condo price ratio
(average price for detached divided by average price of condo apartment)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Current ratio: 2.08
Month-over-month:  0.06
- Average since Jan 1996 = 2.13
- Median since Jan 1996 = 2.06
- Max = 3.06, Min = 1.72
1.78
3.06
2.02
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Ratio of Avg Prices: 416 Detached/416 Condo Apt

11. 416 Price Gaps vs. Condo Apt
(average price for detached/semi/row minus average price of condo apartment)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Current Detached dollar gap: $691K
Prior month dollar gap: $707K ( $6K)
Prior year dollar gap: $583K ( $108K)
2 yrs prior dollar gap: $743K ($52K)
$433
$1,061
$691
$246
$568
$325
$199
$533
$308
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
416 Price Gaps vs. Condo Apt ('000s)
Detached
Semi
Rowhouse
Current Rowhouse dollar gap: $308K
Prior month dollar gap: $300K ( $8K)
Prior year dollar gap: $385K ( $77K)
2 yrs prior dollar gap: $533K ($125K)
Current Semi dollar gap: $325K
Prior month dollar gap: $348K ( $13K)
Prior year dollar gap: $403K ( $78K)
2 yrs prior dollar gap: $393K ($68K)

12. 416 Price CAGRs – Freehold
(Compound annual growth rate, current month vs. same month 5, 10, 20 years ago)
20 year House performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.28%; MoM change  21 bps
20 year Condo performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.19%; MoM change  32 bps
8.76%
6.96%
7.28%
10.93%
6.89%
8.32%
13.90%
6.05%
7.87%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
416 Freeholds - Average Price CAGRs
Houses - 20 year Houses - 10 year Houses - 5 year

13. 416 Price CAGRs – Condo
(Compound annual growth rate, current month vs. same month 5, 10, 20 years ago)
20 year House performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.28%; MoM change  21 bps
20 year Condo performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.19%; MoM change  32 bps
5.74%
7.28%
7.19%
5.62%
8.66% 8.12%
3.75%
11.26% 11.97%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
416 Condos - Average Price CAGRs
Condos - 20 year Condos - 10 year Condos - 5 year

14. 416 Market Breakdown
1 year ago: Condos 61% / Houses 39%
5 years ago: Condos 52% / Houses 47%
10 years ago: Condos 49% / Houses 50%
15 years ago: Condos 44% / Houses 55%
20 years ago: Condos 40% / Houses 58%
As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new
condos are completed, transaction share should keep
shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter
home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.
While houses were only 41% of 2019 sales transactions,
they were 58% of dollar volume (2018: 38% v. 55%,
2017: 38% v. 59%, 2016: 35% v. 64%).
Houses
41%
Condos
58%
Share of Transactions - last 12 months
Detached
70%
Semi
22%
Row
8%
Share of House Transactions - last 12 months
Apartment
86%
Townhouse
14%
Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months

15. Would you like to make better-informed real estate decisions? I believe knowledge is
power. So I invest a lot of time researching and analyzing data and trends in the
Toronto real estate market. My Chartered Accountant (CPA, CA) side also compels
me to dig way deeper than most agents into the numbers on individual properties my
clients are interested in. If you would like to benefit from the same type of analysis and
insight that is sought by media outlets and institutional investors, reach out. Because
better information = better decisions.
Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
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