Toronto real estate market saw house sales down 18% year-over-year in January 2018 while condo sales were up 20.7% year-over-year. Average house prices increased 1.2% to $1,284K from January 2017 compared to condo prices rising 12% to $543K. Active house listings increased 133% from January 2017 while condo listings rose 20.7%, indicating a shifting market with more house inventory and lower condo inventory.

1. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Charts
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
Realtor
Chalmers House
by Blok 70
Jan
2018

2. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
Introduction
You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??
Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number
you’re seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow
will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is
the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREB’s broader GTA-wide aggregate figures.
I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos,
because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably
more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I
aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.

3.  $14K YoY
-1.2%
 $74K MoM
6.6%
Toronto Real Estate
Jan 2018 Quick Facts
Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats” (monthly information back to January 1996), Scott Ingram
- Jan House sales -18% YoY, but nobody
was predicting fast start to year
- Haven’t had a period of consecutive
negative YoY months since Aug ‘08 – Apr
’09
- Unusual that active listings decreased in
month; first time since 2012
House & Condo markets continue to diverge
⌂
 $58 YoY
+12.0%
 $5K MoM
+1.0%
- YoY Condo sales are going to look
terrible, but take any other year to
compare and they’re strong
- Prices at +12.0% YoY is lowest mark since
last January (+15.2%)
- low inventory persists – active listings 
40% from 7-year average

4. Detached $1,284K / Semi $937K / Row $1,084K
Jan vs. ‘17: $14K (1.2%)
Jan vs. '13: $488K (71%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 10.9%
- 5 of last 6 months have been below prior years – and
more to come! But still well clear of 2015.
416 Average Sold Price
(dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Condo Apt $543K / Condo Townhouse $544K
Jan vs. ‘17: $58K (12.0%)
Jan vs. '13: $201K (59%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 9.7%
- March – June might be hard to reach but YoY
comparisons will still look strong in Feb
1,218
1,4391,429
1,455
1,373
1,268
1,177
1,088
1,215
1,1821,171
1,129
1,204
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
421
444
428
452 456 459
438
459 462
474 484 476485
524
562
590
573
559
541 546 557 564 564
538543
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

5. 416 Residential Sales Volume
(number of sold transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Jan vs. '17: 17.7% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 21%)
YTD vs. '17: 17.7%
- Slow start to year, likely due to headwinds from OSFI
stress test and mortgage rate increase
- Rolling 12 month sales of 13,240 is lowest in available
TREB data (from Jan 1996)
Jan vs. '17: 20.7% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 3% )
YTD vs. '17: 20.7%
- YoY comparisons for first 3 months will look tough
- Still above 7 year average
- Rolling 12 month sales of 21,291 is lowest since Apr 2016
623 1054
1636 1680
1588
1185
786 811
956
1182 1169
680
513
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1254
1816
2565
2400
2271
1912
1479
1628
1518
1663
1783
1262
994
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

6. 416 Active Listings
(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Jan vs. '17: 133% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 18%)
YTD vs. '17: 133%
- Unusual for listings to decline from Dec to Jan. First
time since Jan 2012.
- Above recent average, yet 6th lowest in last 23 years
- Houses were 30% of all 416 active listings last Jan – this
year were 46%
Jan vs. '17: 20.7% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 40%)
YTD vs. '17: 20.7%
- First Dec to Jan decline since 2009
- Active Listings above last year’s crazy-low levels, but
still 1,233 less than 7 Yr
679
836
1,228
2,034
2,9412,876
2,574
2,026
2,7152,7422,687
1,805
1580
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1529 1443 1546
2148
2854
3074 3080
2682
2986 2907
2697
1899
1,846
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Condos
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

7. 416 Months Of Inventory
(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)
Jan vs. '17: 2.0 months (183%)
Jan vs. 7 Yr Avg:  1.0 months (48%)
- Highest Jan since 2009 (6.7)
- Varies a lot by housing type. Nov/Dec/Jan:
- Detached 2.6 / 3.2 / 3.4
- Semi 1.5 / 1.3 / 2.3
- Row 1.6 / 1.9 / 2.1
Jan vs. '17: 0.6 months (45%)
Jan vs. 7 Yr Avg: 1.5 months (45%)
- Average since Jan 1996 is 3.0 so very low historically, 22
of last 23 months have been below 2.00
- Record 11 months in row condos < houses
- 2nd lowest January ever
1.1
0.8 0.8
1.2
1.9
2.4
3.3
2.5
2.8
2.3 2.3
2.7
3.1
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.6
2.1
1.6
2.0
1.7
1.5 1.5
1.9
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

8. 416 Average Days On Market
(days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Jan vs. '17:  13.6 days (78%)
Jan vs. 7 Yr Avg:  5.9 days (24%)
- Highest since Jan ’11 (31)
- Still below historical Jan avg (since Jan ‘96) of 35 (and
all months’ avg of 28.0 and median of 26.6)
Jan vs. '17:  5.1 days (24%)
Jan vs. 7 Yr Avg:  9.1 days (25%)
- Third lowest Jan (22 last year, 26 in Jan ’10)
- Well below historical Jan avg (since Jan ’96) of 45
17
11
9 8
10
14
21
24
20
18
21
25
31
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
22
17
12
10
12
15
20
23 22 22 21
23
27
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

9. 416 Sold Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥101% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
101% over asking Jan vs. '17:  39 pp
- Lower than recent years – especially runaway 2017
101% over asking Jan vs. '17:  19 pp
- Behind crazy 2017, but SOA still twice frequent than
in the past
59%
73%
81%
78%
59%
35%
22% 23%
26%
28% 29%
21%20%
27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Houses
2015 2016 2017 2018
41%
54%
71%
74%
58%
36%
24%
18%
23% 21% 23% 22%22%
38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Condos
2015 2016 2017 2018

10. 416 Sold 20% Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥120% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
101% over asking Jan vs. '17:  15 pp
- 20% SOA activity (and strategy of grossly underlisting)
has quieted right down after early last year
101% over asking Jan vs. '17:  1 pp
- This practice is back to being rare in condos – early
last year stands out as a blip
18%
38%
45%
36%
17%
5% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 4%3%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Houses
2015 20% 2016 20% 2017 20% 2018 20%
3%
7%
20% 21%
9%
3%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%1% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Condos
2015 20% 2016 20% 2017 20% 2018 20%

11. 416 Annual Price Increases
(December vs. prior December average price, and current month 2018 compared to Dec 2017)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
20 year House performance: 17 years 3 years (Avg $46K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.7%.
20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $19K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 4.7%.
46
(11)
27 36
2
49
10 12
130
(51)
57
40
22 33
117
54
105
210
(35)
74
19 12 20 12 3
19
7 11
42
(34)
60
20
4
(6)
29
17 22
65 62
5
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
$000s
$ Increases
Houses Condos
17%
(3%)
9%
11%
1%
13%
2% 3%
29%
(9%)
11%
7%
3% 5%
17%
7%
12%
22%
(3%)
7%
12%
7%
11%
6%
2%
9%
3% 4%
17%
(12%)
23%
6%
1%
(2%)
9%
4% 6%
16%
13%
1%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
% Increases
Houses Condos

12. 416 Market Breakdown
1 year ago: Condos 58% / Houses 41%
5 years ago: Condos 50% / Houses 49%
10 years ago: Condos 47% / Houses 52%
20 years ago: Condos 35% / Houses 63%
As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new
condos are completed, transaction share should keep
shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter
home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.
While houses were only 38% of 2017 sales transactions,
they were 59% of dollar volume (35% and 64% in 2016).
Houses
38%
Condos
61%
Share of Transactions - last 12 months
Detached
71%
Semi
22%
Row
7%
Share of House Transactions - last 12 months
Apartment
90%
Townhouse
10%
Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months

13. Would you like to make better-informed real estate decisions? I believe knowledge is
power. So, I invest a lot of time researching and analyzing data and trends in the
Toronto real estate market. My Chartered Accountant (CPA, CA) side also compels
me to dig way deeper than most agents into the numbers on individual properties my
clients are interested in. If you would like to benefit from the same type of analysis and
insight that is sought by media outlets and institutional investors, reach out. Because
better information = better decisions.
Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
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