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Toronto HPI - Sep 2017

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Latest MLS® Home Price Index statistics

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Toronto HPI - Sep 2017

  1. 1. Toronto MLS® Home Price Index Creative Commons license Scott Ingram CPA, CA, MBA REALTOR® Witches’ House by André Carrotflower Sept 2017
  2. 2. Toronto Real Estate Introduction Average prices hide a lot of information and are subject to volatility. What if a higher percentage of condos sold last month? Average prices can change if no underlaying prices changes at all changed but just the mix changed. What if a few $10 million homes sold last month? That would skew the average as well. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was created to be a more apples-to-apples look at changes in average price. Like the CPI features a basket of goods that remains constant, the HPI uses “benchmark” homes that feature a basket of attributes that remain constant. Then it tracks the prices of just those homes over time, so the effects of mix changes are minimized. Here’s an introduction to the HPI if you’d like a bit more background information. NEW
  3. 3. Comparison of YoY price increases century21.ca/scott.ingram You’ll notice the black line (416 average price) is more volatile than the HPI. It has reached lower lows (including a couple of negative dips) and higher highs than the orange HPI composite line. The average is more susceptible to fluctuations in mix. For example, March 2017 sales were 49% detached, while Sept 2017 was down to 26% detached – lower than the 31% last year. 27.7% 15.3% 28.6% 5.6% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Toronto housing – YoY price increases HPI Composite 416 Average Price
  4. 4. 416 HPI - Composite (MLS® Home Price Index: Composite uses fixed weighting of all underlying benchmark homes, including freeholds and condos) century21.ca/scott.ingram Sep vs. ‘16: $97K Sep vs. ‘12: $283K (56%) 5 year avg. annual growth: 9.3% - In first period of decline since Jul-Sep 2014 - HPI lower than 416 Sep avg price of $810K after 3 months of being higher - NB: The percentage numbers above may not match percentage change you would calculate from the numbers at left. Numbers at left were taken from static reports at time of issue and some percentages at right are be based off restated prior year numbers (when adjustments to benchmark homes or composite weighting are made). 617 621 634 647 666 676 682 685 691 706 714 720 720 737 779 817 830 830 808 790 788 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 HPI Benchmark - Composite 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 8.4% 8.6% 9.3% 9.9% 11.7% 12.7% 13.4%13.5%13.8% 15.8% 16.5% 17.6% 18.9% 19.9% 24.1% 27.7% 26.1% 24.2% 20.1% 16.7% 15.3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - Composite 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  5. 5. 416 HPI Composite vs. Components (MLS® Home Price Index: Composite uses fixed weighting of all underlying benchmark homes, including freeholds and condos) century21.ca/scott.ingram 15.3% 6.6% 8.7% 18.0% 26.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 416 housing – YoY HPI benchmark price increases HPI Composite SF Detached SF Attached Townhouse Apartment As you would expect, the HPI Composite sits in between its component benchmarks. Notably, this is the first time since the launch in 2012 that apartments are above single family detached houses.
  6. 6. 416 HPI – Single Family Detached (MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value of that basket of attributes over time) century21.ca/scott.ingram Sep vs. ‘16: $94K Sep vs. ‘12: $420K (62%) 5 year avg. annual growth: 10.2% Sep HPI $261K lower than Avg. 416 Detached price Sep HPI YoY increase is 2.2% higher than average 416 Detached YoY change 876 878 898 924 961 982 989 991 1,000 1,020 1,032 1,039 1,076 1,106 1,172 1,2261,229 1,205 1,146 1,1001,094 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Detached 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 11.3% 10.5%11.1% 12.3% 15.3% 17.1%17.2%17.3%17.3% 19.2% 20.0%20.2% 21.7% 23.3% 27.7% 29.7% 24.8% 19.8% 13.1% 8.2% 6.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Detached 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  7. 7. 416 HPI – Single Family Attached (MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value of that basket of attributes over time) century21.ca/scott.ingram Sep vs. ‘16: $88K Sep vs. ‘12: $310K (62%) 5 year avg. annual growth: 9.5% 680 689 702 718 745 760 764 762 762 779 791 799 820 834 878 920 928 919 879 850 845 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Attached 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 8.8% 9.3% 10.3% 11.3% 13.4% 14.9% 15.1% 15.1% 14.9% 16.6% 17.4% 18.1% 18.4%18.6% 22.5% 25.1% 22.1% 18.6% 12.9% 9.3% 8.7% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - SF Attached 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 SF Attached includes freehold semi-detached and rowhouses.
  8. 8. 416 HPI – Townhouse (MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value of that basket of attributes over time) century21.ca/scott.ingram Sep vs. ‘16: $115K Sep vs. ‘12: $254K (69%) 5 year avg. annual growth: 11.0% Townhouse includes condo townhouses. “Owners typically pay co-ownership fees for maintenance and enjoy exclusive access to a part of the lot” 455 453 465 474 490 494 501 509 515 524 531 534 543 543 568 602 628 631 633 624 609 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 HPI Benchmark - Townhouse 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 10.1% 9.5% 10.5% 11.8% 13.4%13.4%13.3% 14.7% 15.9% 17.5% 18.5% 19.4% 20.7% 18.6% 21.3% 26.1% 27.1%27.0%26.5% 22.9% 18.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - Townhouse 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  9. 9. 416 HPI – Apartment (MLS® Home Price Index uses a benchmark with attributes typical for the area, and tracks the value of that basket of attributes over time) century21.ca/scott.ingram Sep vs. ‘16: $103K Sep vs. ‘12: $1684K (54%) 5 year avg. annual growth: 9.1% Apartment includes condo apartments - The 2016 and 2017 growth rates are very out of character 346 349 355 359 364 366 371 375 380 388 392 397 405 417 441 464 478 485 481 478 480 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 HPI Benchmark - Apartment 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 4.9% 5.9% 6.8% 6.4% 6.9% 7.2% 8.5% 8.9% 10.0% 12.0% 12.9% 14.8% 18.0% 19.4% 24.0% 29.2% 31.0% 32.2% 29.4% 27.4% 26.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YoY Δ 416 HPI Benchmark - Apartment 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
  10. 10. Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant. I take a “Moneyball” approach to real estate, believing in the importance of both quantitative and qualitative trends – especially in this rapidly shifting real estate market. After having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music communities, I now combine my analytical skills and business savvy with my hometown knowledge and passion to help people like you find their next home. I work with the venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty Inc. brokerage on Queen St. West. @areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram Click for more fresh statistics and insight on Toronto real estate:

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