As in September, some indicators were good and some were bad, but there appears to be continued movement away from July bottoms.

1. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Charts
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
Realtor
Chalmers House
by Blok 70
Oct 2017

2. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
Introduction
You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??
Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number you’re
seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow will add
context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is the 416, so I
pull those numbers out of TREB’s broader GTA-wide aggregate figures.
I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos,
because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably more
interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I aim to give
you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.

3.  $7K YoY
-0.6%
 $32K MoM
-2.6%
Toronto Real Estate
Oct 2017 Quick Facts
Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats” (monthly information back to January 1996), Scott Ingram
- YoY House sales still -22% for Oct, but
improved since -42% in June
- MOI has improved from 3.3 in July to 2.3 in
Oct, Sold Over Asking has edged up 3
months in a row
- Average prices hovering back around 2016
levels for last 3 months (+/- 2%)
Mixed signals but improvements since July
⌂
 $90 YoY
+19.0%
 $7K MoM
+1.3%
- YoY Condo sales staying in -20% to -30%
range last 5 months, but Oct best (least bad)
since June. Last 5 months only down 5%
versus avg of prior 5 years.
- Prices staying around +20% YoY, held up by
low inventory – active listings still  35%
from 5-year norms

4. Detached $1,288K / Semi $948K / Row $947K
Oct vs. ‘16: $7K (0.6%)
Oct vs. ‘12: $470K (66%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 10.7%
- Sep to Oct avg prices typically  (14 of 22 years, avg
+1.6%), so -2.6% MoM is unusual and worst since 2008
- All driven by detached, as semi and row  vs. Sep
416 Average Sold Price
(Dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Condo Apt $555K / Condo Townhouse $637K
Oct vs. '16: $90K (19.0%)
Oct vs. '12: $201K (55%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 9.2%
- Three month increase streak. Sep to Oct has risen 12 of 22
years, avg +0.3% so this month surpassed at 1.3%
- MoM +1.3%: Apt +0.8%, Townhouse +4.2%
958
1,110
1,074
1,156 1,170 1,157
1,103
1,096
1,183 1,187
1,221
1,165
1,218
1,4391,432
1,455
1,373
1,268
1,177
1,088
1,211
1,179
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s Avg Price – Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
421
444
428
452 456 459
438
459 462
474 484 476485
524
562
590
573
559
541 546 557 564
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

5. 416 Residential Sales Volume
(number of sold transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Oct vs. '16: 22.1% (vs. Prior 5 years: 22%)
YTD vs. '16: 22.8%
- Apr sales lowest since 2009, May lowest since 2000, Jun-
Sep lowest since 1996 (start of monthly data). Oct lowest
since 2008.
- Oct 19% below 22 year average of 1,469 sales
Oct vs. '16: 21.9% (vs. Prior 5 years: 2% )
YTD vs. '16: 9.4%
- Comparisons to 2016 are tough (was 18% vs. 2015). Last
6 months have been within normal sales ranges.
- Unusual prices have held at above 20% YoY when volumes
down 20-30% last 5 months. Chalk it up to low inventory
(next slide).
1,889
2,102 2,065
1,319
1,162
1,508 1,532
1,393
714
623
1054
1638
1680
1588
1188
786 814
963
1193
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1,000
1,609
2,066
2,297
2,468 2,471
2,133
2,217
2,038
2,142
1,937
1,350
1254
1816
2565
2400
2271
1913
1480
1630
1521
1672
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

6. 416 Active Listings
(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Oct vs. '16: 70.1% (vs. Prior 5 years: 14%)
YTD vs. '16: 47%
- Active Listings are high, but have been back to within
seasonal ranges since April
- Houses were 37% of all 416 active listings last Sept – this
year were 48%
Oct vs. '16: 4.0% (vs. Prior 5 years: 35%)
YTD vs. '16: 33%
- First time Active Listings surpassed last year’s levels, but
are still very seasonably low – about 1,600 listings less than
2011-2015 average
1,168
1,300 1,392 1,452
1,633
1,456
1,283
1,119
1,629 1,612
1,307
599679
836
1228
2034
2941 2876
2574
2026
2715 2742
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
3,491
3,718
4,028
4,177 4,249
4,041
3,608
3,134 3,111
2,791
2,203
1,3971529 1443 1546
2148
2854
3074 3080
2682
2986
2907
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Condos
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

7. 416 Monthly Change in Active Listings
(net change in snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Oct vs. Sep avg change 2012-16: -120
- Some weird months this year (Apr, May, Aug)
- Only Oct in last 6 years to have  in Active Listings
- Sep and Oct being above average likely to do with Aug
sellers holding back until fall, hoping for market
improvements
Oct vs. Aug avg change 2012-16: -325
- This year declined less than usual from Sep to Oct, but
that’s welcome as still shortage of condo Active Listings
132
-86
103
602
706
220
6
-398
304
-79
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MoM Net Δ in Active Listings - Condos
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
80
157
392
806
907
-65
-302
-548
689
27
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
MoM Net Δ in Active Listings - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

8. 416 Months Of Inventory
(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)
Oct vs. '16: 1.2 months (118%)
Oct vs. Prior 5 years:  0.7 months (45%)
- Bouncing around in last several months, but 6th month in a
row at or above recent ranges
- Sep to Oct typically falls, but this was largest since ‘13
- Detached highest at 2.7 (down from peak of 3.6 in July),
Semi at 1.4 (2.6), Row at 1.6 (2.6)
Oct vs. '16: 0.4 months (33%)
Oct vs. Prior 5 years: 1.0 months (38%)
- Average since Jan 1996 is 3.0 so still very low historically
- 19 of last 20 months have been below 2.00
- 8 months in row condos < houses beats old record of 6 from
2008 (happens <10% of all months since Jan 1996)
1.7
1.1
0.9
0.8 0.8 0.7
1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8
1.1
0.8 0.7
1.2
1.9
2.4
3.3
2.5
2.8
2.3
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
3.5
2.3
1.9
1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7
1.4 1.5
1.3
1.1 1.0
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.6
2.1
1.6
2.0
1.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

9. 416 Average Days On Market
(Days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Oct vs. '16:  6.5 days (55%)
Oct vs. Prior 5 years:  1.9 days (11%)
- Last few months falling into normal seasonal patterns
- Highest Oct since 2013 (2011 – 2013 all 18 or 19)
- Still below historical average (since Jan 1996) of 28.1 DOM
(median is 26.6)
Oct vs. '16:  0.6 days (3%)
Oct vs. Prior 5 years:  7.1 days (24%)
- First month higher than last year
- Still a week lower than previous 5 year average, and way
below average of 38 since Jan 1996
39
31
24
23 22 22 23
24
23
21
21
24
22
17
12
10
12
15
20
23
22
22
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
25
15
13
11 11 10
13
15
12 12
14
18
17
11
9 8
10
14
21
24
20
18
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

10. 416 Sold Over Asking
(Sold properties at ≥101% of asking price and Sold at ≥120%, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
101% over asking Oct vs. '16:  32 pp (solid lines)
120% over asking Oct vs. '16:  11 pp (dashed lines)
- Three consecutive MoM increases, though still at half of
last year’s number
- Climb from Sep of +3 pp is opposite direction of last year
101% over asking Oct vs. '16:  5 pp (solid lines)
120% over asking Oct vs. '16:  0 pp (dashed lines)
- Last 4 months SOA levels have been +/- 4 pp of 2016
10%
12%
16%
20%
24%
22% 20% 20%
24%
26% 27% 26%
41%
54%
71%
74%
58%
36%
24%
18%
23%
22%
0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
3%
7%
20% 21%
9%
3%
1% 1% 1% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Condos
2016 2017 2016 20% OA 2017 20% OA
40%
53%
58%
66%
68% 67%
57% 58%
63%
60%
53%
44%
59%
73%
81%
78%
59%
35%
22% 23%
26%
29%
6%
10% 12%
18%
21% 19%
15% 14%
16% 15% 15%
11%
18%
38%
45%
36%
17%
5%
3% 3% 3% 4%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Houses
2016 2017 2016 20% OA 2017 20% OA

11. 416 Annual Price Increases
(December vs. prior December average price, and current month 2017 compared to Dec 2016)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
20 year House performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $46K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.3%.
20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $21K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 5.1%.
19
46
(11)
27 36
2
49
10 12
130
(51)
57
40
22 33
117
54
105
210
15
2
19 12 20 12 3
19
7 11
42
(34)
60
20
4
(6)
29
17 22
65
88
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
YTD
$000s
$ Increases
Houses Condos
7%
17%
(3%)
9% 11%
1%
13%
2% 3%
29%
(9%)
11%
7%
3% 5%
17%
7%
12%
22%
1%
2%
12%
7%
11%
6%
2%
9%
3% 4%
17%
(12%)
23%
6%
1%
(2%)
9%
4% 6%
16%
19%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
YTD
% Increases
Houses Condos

12. 416 Market Breakdown
1 year ago: Condos 57% / Houses 42%
5 years ago: Condos 50% / Houses 48%
10 years ago: Condos 46% / Houses 52%
20 years ago: Condos 35% / Houses 63%
As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new
condos are completed, transaction share should keep shifting
towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter home” and
not held onto as long on average as houses.
While houses were only 41% of sales transaction volume, in
2016, they accounted for 64% of dollar volume.
Houses
38%
Condos
61%
Share of Transactions - last 12 months
Detached
72%
Semi
21%
Row
7%
Share of House Transactions - last 12 months
Apartment
89%
Townhouse
11%
Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months

13. Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
I take a “Moneyball” approach to real estate, believing in the importance of both quantitative
and qualitative trends – especially in this rapidly shifting real estate market. After having built up
20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music communities, I now combine my
analytical skills and business savvy with my hometown knowledge and passion to help people
like you find their next home. I work with the venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty
Inc. brokerage on Queen St. West.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
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