June 2018 - Don't be deceived

Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Charts
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
Realtor
Chalmers House
by Blok 70
June
2018

Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
Introduction
You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??
Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number
you’re seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow
will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is
the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREB’s broader GTA-wide aggregate figures.
I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos,
because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably
more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I
aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.
 indicator points to heating up (favours sellers),  denotes cooling down (favours buyers)

Detached $1,354K / Semi $1,000K / Row $942K
Jun vs. ‘17: $23K (-1.8%)
Jun vs. '13: $456K (62%)
5 year CAGR: 9.6%
- YoY has shrunk last 4 months as move out of bubble
peak (-16.8% > -15.7% > -14.4% > -5.0% > -1.8%)
- May to Jun decrease -4.6% is median in last 9 years
416 Average Sold Price
(dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Condo Apt $606K / Condo Townhouse $665K
Jun vs. ‘17: $54K (9.7%)
Jun vs. '13: $243K (66%)
5 year CAGR: 10.6%
- First time condo monthly average has reached $600K;
first time above $500K was Feb 2017, $400K was May
2014
1,218
1,4391,429
1,455
1,373
1,268
1,177
1,088
1,215
1,1831,171
1,127
1,2051,1971,204
1,245
1,305
1,245
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
421
444
428
452 456 459
438
459 462
474 484 476485
524
562
590
573
559
541 546 557 564 564
539544
584
597
609 607 613
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
$000s 416 Avg Price - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

416 Residential Sales Volume
(number of sold transactions in the month)
Jun vs. '17:  6.5% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 25%)
YTD vs. '17: 25%
- First positive YoY month for sales this year
- Rolling 12 month sales of 11,408 is slightly up from last
month, and stopped skid of 8 record lows in a row
- 2017 & 2018 are lowest Junes in last 23 years
May vs. '17: 4.8% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 5.6% )
YTD vs. '17: 22%
- Lowest June since 2013, and below 7 year average
- Rolling 12 month sales of 18,837 is lowest since Apr 2015
623 1054
1636 1680
1588
1185
786 811
956
1180 1169
676
510
723
1,019
1,1921,124
1,262
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
416 Sales - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1254
1816
2565
2400
2271
1912
1479
1628
1518
1663
1779
1258
990
1268
1746 1739
1948
1821
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

416 Active Listings
(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
Jun vs. '17: 4.1% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 9%)
YTD vs. '17: 25%
- Within recent seasonal ranges; low 2016 looks like the
big outlier
- Like last month, is within 1% of this decade’s average
(for June is 2,730)
Jun vs. '17:  4.2% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 37%)
YTD vs. '17: 13%
- Active Listings still almost 1700 less than 7 Yr Avg
- Seem to be following seasonal norms this year – just at
much lower levels
679
836
1228
2034
2941 2876
2574
2026
2715 2742 2687
1805
1580
1800
1995
2327
2835 2758
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
416 Active Listings - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1529 1443 1546
2148
2854
3074 3080
2682
2986 2907
2697
1899
1846 1982 2080
2425
2923 2946
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
416 Active Listings - Condos
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

416 Months Of Inventory
(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)
Jun vs. '17:  0.2 months (-10%)
Jun vs. 7 Yr Avg: 0.6 months (36%)
- First month this year that was lower than last year
- Varies a lot by housing type. Attached very low:
Detached 2.6 / Semi 1.2 / Row 1.9
Jun vs. '17: 0.0 months (1%)
Jun vs. 7 Yr Avg: 0.9 months (-35%)
- Average since Jan 1996 is 3.0 so very low historically, 27
of last 28 months have been below 2.00
- Record 16 months in row condos < houses. In 254
months before March 2017, this only happened 19
times in total
1.1
0.8 0.8
1.2
1.9
2.4
3.3
2.5
2.8
2.3 2.3
2.7
3.1
2.5
2.0 2.0
2.5
2.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
416 MOI - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.6
2.1
1.6
2.0
1.7
1.5 1.5
1.9
1.6
1.2
1.4 1.5 1.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
416 MOI - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

416 Average Days On Market
(days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)
May vs. '17:  3.2 days (24%)
May vs. 7 Yr Avg:  2.0 days (14%)
- Highest June since 2013 (17)
- Still below historical June avg (since Jan ‘96) of 21
(and all months’ avg of 28.0 and median of 26.6)
May vs. '17:  2.0 days (13%)
May vs. 7 Yr Avg:  6.3 days (-27%)
- 2nd lowest June in last 23 years (and 5 days less than 3rd
place)
- Well below historical June avg (since Jan ’96) of 31
17
11
9 8
10
14
21
24
20
18
21
25
31
23
16 16
15
17
0
10
20
30
40
50
416 DOM - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
22
17
12
10
12
15
20
23 22 22 21
23
27
22
17 16
17 17
0
10
20
30
40
50
416 DOM - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

416 New Listings
(number of new MLS #s during the month – unfortunately includes re-listed properties)
May vs. '17: 17.2% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 14%)
YTD vs. '17: 22%
- Last year it appeared people were rushing to cash in
(terminations and re-listings were – and are still –
problematically distorting this stat)
- This year no sellers are rushing in; they may be waiting
until they see things are better
May vs. '17: 15.7% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 18%)
YTD vs. '17: 17%
- Condo new listings for June the lowest they’ve been
since 2009 (2,531)
973
1459
2485
3336
4253
2846
1760
1310
2671
2359 2254
888
1075
1458
1896
2310
2899
2357
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
416 New Listings - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1886
2096
3188
3588
4138
3385
2693
2253
2826
2645 2573
1235
1674
1886
2487
2866
3371
2855
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
416 New Listings - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

416 Sold Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥101% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
101% or more of asking May vs. '17:  1 pp
Month-over-month:  4 pp
- First month this year that exceeded last year
- Still, lower levels than recent years
101% or more of asking May vs. '17:  7 pp
- Converging to become close to 2016 and 2017 back
half of the year numbers
59%
73%
81%
78%
59%
35%
22% 23%
26%
28% 29%
21%
19%
32%
37%
41% 40%
36%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
416 Sold Over Asking - Houses
2015 2016 2017 2018
41%
54%
71%
74%
58%
36%
24%
18%
23% 21%
23%
22%
22%
31%
34% 34% 33%
29%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
416 Sold Over Asking - Condos
2015 2016 2017 2018

416 Sold 20% Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥120% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
120% or more of asking May vs. '17:  1 pp
- 20% SOA activity (and strategy of grossly underlisting)
looks to be moderating, with 2016 land the first bit of
2017 looking to be the outlier period
120% or more of asking May vs. '17:  1 pp
Month-over-month:  0 pp
- This practice is back to being rare in condos – the 4
months last Feb to May stand out as a blip
18%
38%
45%
36%
17%
5% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 4%3%
5% 7%
9% 9% 6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Houses
2015 20% 2016 20% 2017 20% 2018 20%
3%
7%
20% 21%
9%
3%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%1% 2%
3% 2% 2% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Condos
2015 20% 2016 20% 2017 20% 2018 20%

416 Annual Price Increases
(December vs. prior December average price, and current month 2018 compared to Dec 2017)
20 year House performance: 17 years 3 years (Avg $48K)
20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $23K)
46
(11)
27 36
2
49
10 12
130
(51)
57
40
22 33
117
54
105
210
(38)
118
19 12 20 12 3
19
7 11
42
(34)
60
20
4
(6)
29
17 22
65 63 74
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
$000s
$ Increases
Houses Condos
17%
(3%)
9%
11%
1%
13%
2% 3%
29%
(9%)
11%
7%
3% 5%
17%
7%
12%
22%
(3%)
10%
12%
7%
11%
6%
2%
9%
3% 4%
17%
(12%)
23%
6%
1%
(2%)
9%
4% 6%
16%
13% 14%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
% Increases
Houses Condos

416 20-year Price CAGRS
(Current month vs. same month 20 years ago)
20 year House performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 5.93%; MoM change  37 bps
20 year Condo performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 5.47%; MoM change  24 bps
5.50%
7.64%
5.60%
5.93%
3.87%
3.66% 3.79%
5.33%
5.00%
5.47%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
2016 2017 2018
416 Average Prices: 20 Year CAGR
Houses
Condos
Linear (Condos)

416 Market Breakdown
1 year ago: Condos 60% / Houses 40%
5 years ago: Condos 50% / Houses 49%
As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new
condos are completed, transaction share should keep
shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter
home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.
While houses were only 38% of 2017 sales transactions,
they were 59% of dollar volume (35% and 64% in 2016).
Detached
69%
Semi
23%
Row
8%
Share of House Transactions - last 12 months
Houses
37%
Condos
62%
Share of Transactions - last 12 months
Apartment
90%
Townhouse
10%
Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months

Would you like to make better-informed real estate decisions? I believe knowledge is
power. So, I invest a lot of time researching and analyzing data and trends in the
Toronto real estate market. My Chartered Accountant (CPA, CA) side also compels
me to dig way deeper than most agents into the numbers on individual properties my
clients are interested in. If you would like to benefit from the same type of analysis and
insight that is sought by media outlets and institutional investors, reach out. Because
better information = better decisions.
Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
Click for more fresh statistics and insight on Toronto real estate:

June 2018 - Don't be deceived

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