Condos had 51% less active listings at the end of December and Freeholds had 21% less than the average for the decade. That will likely put pressure on prices in the near future.

1. Toronto Real Estate
Market Charts
December 2019
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
Realtor
Chalmers House
by Blok 70

2. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
Introduction
You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??
Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number
you’re seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow
will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is
the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREB’s broader GTA-wide aggregate figures.
I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos,
because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably
more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I
aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.
 indicator points to heating up (favours sellers),  denotes cooling down (favours buyers)

3. Detached $1,363K / Semi $1,004K / Row $956K
Dec vs. '18:  $196K (18.4%)
Dec vs. '14:  $414K (49%)
5 year CAGR:  8.3%
- Dec up very high percentage YoY, but due to
anomaly low Dec 2018
- Over last 5 years, prices have grown $6.9K/month
416 Average Sold Price
(dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Condo Apt $656K / Condo Townhouse $643K
Dec vs. '18:  $53K (8.7%)
Dec vs. '14:  $266K (69%)
5 year CAGR:  11.0%
- Condos haven’t had negative YoY since Feb 2015 (55
straight months and 75 of last 76)
- Over last 5 years, prices have grown $4.4K/month
1119
1223
1184
12641282
1243
11541163
1269124912591264
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Sold Price - Houses
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
544
584
597
610 608 613
591 590
623
609 602 602
601
618 610
640 649 645 635
621
646
670 660 654
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

4. 416 Residential Sales Volume
(number of sold transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Dec vs. '18:  26.7% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  4%)
YTD vs. '18:  15%
- Big turnaround from historically low Q1, with 8 of last 9
months +10% or more over last year.
- July and Sept touched 7 year averages, but last 3
months have been -1%, -6%, -4%
Dec vs. '18:  7.3% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  7% )
YTD vs. '18:  2%
- After stretch of 21 of 23 months being lower sales than
previous year, are now at 8 of the last 9 being higher
510
720
1016
1186
1320 1252
940
855
985
1305
981
501
479
687
971
1366
1687
1446
1225
917
1289
1450
1137
635
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
927
1166
1547
1835
1989
1725
1852
1602 1680
1811
1555
1025
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

5. 416 Active Listings
(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
Dec vs. '18:  21.9% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  6%)
YTD vs. '18:  1%
- Has been above 7 Yr Avg. all year before November
- In August was 1.3% more listings than 2018, now 3
months later has taken dive to -21.9% lower
Dec vs. '18:  19.8% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  38%)
YTD vs. '18:  2%
- First 6 months had higher inventory than last year, last 5
months has tightened
- Lowest December since 1999 (1,113)
- Active Listings around 1,000 less than Dec 7 Yr Avg
1592
1792
2118
2633
29942918
2463
2147
2744
2510
1901
1046
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Houses
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
19602114
2427
2699
30102949
2769
2448
2707
2442
1994
1297
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Condos
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

6. 416 Months Of Inventory
(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)
Dec vs. '18:  1.4 months (-46%)
Dec vs. 7 Yr Avg:  0.2 months (-12%)
- Last 8 months were lower than 2018
- December was first month this year to dip below 7
year average
Dec vs. '18:  0.5 months (-29%)
Dec vs. 7 Yr Avg:  0.9 months (-41%)
- 6 months in row < 2018 after first 6 months all above
- Below 2.000 43 of last 45 months
- Record 33 months in row condos < houses. In 254
months before March 2017, this only happened 19
times in total.
3.1
2.5
2.0 2.0
2.1 2.2
2.7
2.5
2.9
2.1
2.5
3.1
3.3
2.6
2.2
1.9 1.8
2.0 2.0
2.3
2.1
1.7 1.7 1.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
1.9
1.6
1.2
1.4 1.5
1.6
1.8
1.7
2.0
1.7 1.6
1.8
2.1
1.8
1.6 1.5 1.5
1.7
1.5 1.5
1.6
1.3 1.3 1.3
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

7. 416 Average Days On Market
(days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Dec vs. '18:  1.5 days (6%)
Dec vs. 7 Yr Avg:  3.6 days (14%)
- September was only month this year below 7-year
average
Dec vs. '18:  0.9 days (-4%)
Dec vs. 7 Yr Avg:  4.0 days (-14%)
- Diverged lower from averages in spring 2016 and has
stayed low since
31
23
16 16 15
17
22
23
19 18
21
27
31
22
18
16 15 16
21
25
17
18
21
29
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
27
22
17 16
17 17
20
23 23
21
22
26
27
21
19
17 17
19
21 22
20 20 21
25
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

8. 416 New Listings
(number of new MLS #s during the month – unfortunately includes re-listed properties)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Dec vs. '18:  8.0% (vs. 7 Yr Avg:  22%)
YTD vs. '18:  4%
- After 7 months in a row within 5% of 7-year averages,
dropped down to -17% in Nov and -22% in Dec
- After Sept was +8% YTD, then dropped last 3 months
- terminations and re-listings distort this stat
Dec vs. '18:  3.1% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 22%)
YTD vs. '18:  0%
- Concerningly low
- 6 of last 8 months lower than last year
- Have to go back to 2001 to find Dec with lower new
listings (781)
1215
1376
1939
2759
3259
2575
1961
1512
2923
2385
1409
4730
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Houses
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
19131905
2562
2944
3359
27932779
2191
2855
2561
1877
873
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Condos (Apt & Town)
2013 2014 2015 2016
2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg

9. 416 Sold Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥101% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
101% or more of asking Dec vs. '18:  9 pp
Month-over-month:  3 pp
- 17 of last 18 months higher than prior year
- Full year numbers: 2015 47% • 2016 60% • 2017 49% •
2018 34% • 2019 37%
101% or more of asking Dec vs. '18:  10 pp
Month-over-month:  2 pp
- Condos turned it up last 6 months to be > 2018
- Days of SOA for a condo being just for unique
properties (11% for all 2015 sales) seem to be gone
(2016 21% • 2017 42% • 2018 27% • 2019 27%)
73%
81%
78%
19%
32%
37%
41% 40%
35%
27% 25%
35%
37%
31%
23%
25%
34% 36%
43% 41%
37%
34%
29%
42% 41%
35%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Houses
2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 15-'19 Avg
71%
74%
22%
34%
32%
29%
25%
21%
24% 24% 22%
16%
21%
24%
26%
31% 29% 28%
25% 25%
28% 27% 28% 26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Condos
2015 2016 2017
2018 2019 15-'19 Avg

10. 416 Detached/Condo price ratio
(average price for detached divided by average price of condo apartment)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Current ratio: 2.08
Month-over-month:  0.02
- Average since Jan 1996 = 2.13
- Median since Jan 1996 = 2.06
- Max = 3.06, Min = 1.72
Current dollar gap: $707K
Prior month dollar gap: $701K ( $6K)
Prior year dollar gap: $547K ( $160K)
2 years prior dollar gap: $712K ( $5K)
1.78
3.06
2.08
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
Jan
Apr
Jul
Oct
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ratio of Avg Prices: 416 Detached/416 Condo Apt

11. 416 Price CAGRs – Freehold
(Compound annual growth rate, current month vs. same month 5, 10, 20 years ago)
20 year House performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.07%; MoM change  7 bps
20 year Condo performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.87%; MoM change  2 bps
8.76%
6.96% 7.07%
10.93%
6.89%
13.90%
6.05%
8.25%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
2016 2017 2018 2019
416 Freeholds - Average Price CAGRs
Houses - 20 yr Houses - 10 yr Houses - 5 yr

12. 416 Price CAGRs – Condo
(Compound annual growth rate, current month vs. same month 5, 10, 20 years ago)
5.74%
7.28%
6.87%
8.66%
3.75%
11.26%
11.01%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov
2016 2017 2018 2019
416 Condos - Average Price CAGRs
Condos - 20 yr Condos - 10 yr Condos - 5 yr
20 year House performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.07%; MoM change  7 bps
20 year Condo performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.87%; MoM change  2 bps

13. 416 Market Breakdown
1 year ago: Condos 61% / Houses 39%
5 years ago: Condos 52% / Houses 47%
10 years ago: Condos 49% / Houses 50%
15 years ago: Condos 43% / Houses 55%
20 years ago: Condos 40% / Houses 60%
As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new
condos are completed, transaction share should keep
shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter
home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.
While houses were only 41% of 2018 sales transactions,
they were 58% of dollar volume (2018: 38% v. 55%, 2017:
38% v. 59%, 2016: 35% v. 64%).
Houses
41%
Condos
58%
Share of Transactions - last 12 months
Detached
70%
Semi
22%
Row
8%
Share of House Transactions - last 12 months
Apartment
86%
Townhouse
14%
Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months

14. Would you like to make better-informed real estate decisions? I believe knowledge is
power. So I invest a lot of time researching and analyzing data and trends in the
Toronto real estate market. My Chartered Accountant (CPA, CA) side also compels
me to dig way deeper than most agents into the numbers on individual properties my
clients are interested in. If you would like to benefit from the same type of analysis and
insight that is sought by media outlets and institutional investors, reach out. Because
better information = better decisions.
Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
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