June 2017 - Major drop in sales: Toronto real estate market charts

Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Charts
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
Realtor
Chalmers House
by Blok 70
June
2017

Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
Introduction
You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??
Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number
you’re seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow
will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is
the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREB’s regionally-focused information.
I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses and condos, because
lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably more
interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I aim
to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.

 $112K YoY
+9.7%
 $100K MoM
-7.3%
Toronto Real Estate
June 2017 Quick Facts
Source for all numbers: Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) “Historic Housing Stats” (monthly information back to January 1996), Scott Ingram
- Cooling in Houses started mid-April,
accelerated in May, continued in June
- MoM price decline not unusual from
May to June (last 10 years in a row), but
this was largest % drop. As in May, also
due to less detached in the mix.
- Active Listings declined MoM, but all
indicators pointed towards cooling
Both markets cooling but houses more so
⌂
 $100 YoY
+21.8%
 $13K MoM
-2.2%
- Condo market more buoyant than
houses in most stats, though still cooling
- Low inventory holding condo market up.
Active listings still way down ( 42% from
5-year norms) and 37% sold over asking.
- Hot first 4 months mean YTD transactions
still  3% YoY despite drop-off in May and
June (2016 was all-time high at 23.7K)

Detached $1,387K / Semi $987K / Row $984K
June vs. ‘16: $112K (9.7%)
June vs. ‘12: $539K (74%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 11.7%
- May to Jun MoM  10 yrs in row, but -7.3% is largest
- Mix at Apr peak was 74.4% Detached, Jun at 70.8%
- MoM: Detached -4.7%, Semi -3.8%, Row -6.5%
416 Average Sold Price
(Dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Condo Apt $553K / Condo Townhouse $606K
June vs. '16: $100K (21.8%)
June vs. '12: $1901K (52%)
5 year avg. annual growth: 8.7%
- MoM -2.2%: Apt -2.1%, Townhouse -3.3%
958
1,110
1,074
1,156 1,170 1,157
1,104 1,096
1,183 1,187
1,221
1,165
1,217
1,4381,430
1,453
1,370
1,270
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
421
444
428
452 456 459
438
459 462
474 484 476485
524
562
589
572
559
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
$000s Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Residential Sales Volume
(number of sold transactions in the month)
June vs. '16: 42.0% (vs. Prior 5 years: 36%)
YTD vs. '16: 16.6%
- Prior 5 years stayed within 4% of the average 5-year
volume as 416 houses essentially have a fixed supply
- Apr lowest since 2009, May sales lowest since 2000,
Jun lowest going back to 1996 (start of monthly data)
June vs. '16: 22.3% (vs. Prior 5 years: 2% )
YTD vs. '16: 2.9%
- YTD was +21% after March, then 15%, 9%, now 3%.
- Still 3rd highest June sales ever.
- May or June are usually the peak Condo sales months,
so interesting if this year peaks in April
1,889
2,102 2,066
1,320
1,162
1,508 1,532
1,393
714
624
1058
1650
1704
1613
1198
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Houses (Detached & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
1,000
1,609
2,066
2,297
2,468 2,472
2,134
2,217
2,039
2,143
1,937
1,350
1254
1817
2569
2407
2286
1921
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Active Listings
(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
May vs. '16: 97.5% (vs. Prior 5 years: 19%)
YTD vs. '16: 26.1%
- Grew quickly from March to May, but decreased in
June, as is the seasonal norm, and back to within
recent 6 year ranges.
- Still not a record by any stretch. 2013 was higher
(2,961) and that year house prices increased 17%
May vs. '16: 23.9% (vs. Prior 5 years: 42%)
YTD vs. '16: 46.9%
- Active listings are moving back towards last year’s
levels, but are still very low – about 2,200 listings less
than prior 5 year average
1,168
1,300 1,392 1,452
1,633
1,456
1,283
1,119
1,629 1,612
1,307
599679
836
1228
2034
2941 2876
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
3,491
3,718
4,028
4,177 4,249
4,041
3,608
3,134 3,111
2,791
2,203
1,3971529 1443 1546
2148
2854
3074
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
416 Active Listings - Condos
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Monthly Change in Active Listings
(net change in snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
June vs. May avg change 2012-16: -126
- MoM changes in Active Listings have followed pretty
steady patterns with houses
- After hugely out of character rises in April and May
(5th and 4th highest MoM increases back to 1996),
appear to be back to seasonal norms
- Dropped a lot in 2nd half of June (was + mid-month)
June vs. May avg change 2012-16: +24
- At high part of range of recent history (highest since
234 in 2012) but appears back on trend
- Above trend would be good as still shortage of Active
Listings
80
157
392
806
907
-65
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
132
-86
103
602
706
220
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
0
500
1,000
Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Months Of Inventory
(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)
May vs. '16: 1.7 months (241%)
May vs. Prior 5 years:  1.1 months (81%)
- MOI has risen rapidly in last three months. June breaks
28 months straight < 2.0.
- Highest June since 2.6 in 2010 (June avg since 1996 =
2.0, all-month avg = 2.2)
May vs. '16: 0.0 months (2%)
May vs. Prior 5 years: 1.2 months (44%)
- 4th month in a row Condo MOI < House (last time was
Dec ’08). Difference of 0.8 is 3rd highest gap from 1996.
- MOI is rising, but 1.6 is a record low for Jun.
- Below 2.0 months for 16 consecutive months (record).
Last time under 2.0 was Jan 2009.
1.7
1.1
0.9
0.8 0.8 0.7
1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8
1.1
0.8
0.7
1.2
1.8
2.4
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
3.5
2.3
1.9
1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7
1.4 1.5
1.3
1.1 1.0
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Average Days On Market
(Days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)
June vs. '16:  3.4 days (33%)
June vs. Prior 5 years:  0.9 days (6%)
- Note: This statistic has become a lot less meaningful
with the recent massive increase in terminations and
re-listings of the same property. Only the DOM for the
listing that finally sells is counted by TREB.
June vs. '16:  7.2 days (32%)
June vs. Prior 5 years:  11.3 days (43%)
- Terminations epidemic not as prevalent in condos so
DOM a little more useful in condos
- DOM has risen last 2 months, but still a week less than
last year – and way below 38 average since 1996
24
15
13
11 12
10
13
15
12 12
14
18
17
12
9 8
10
14
0
10
20
30
40
50
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
39
31
24 23
22 22 23
24
23
21 21
23
22
16
12
10
12
15
0
10
20
30
40
50
Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

416 Sold Over Asking
(Sold properties at ≥101% of asking price and Sold at ≥120%, as percent of total monthly sales)
101% over asking June vs. '16:  32 pp (solid lines)
120% over asking June vs. '16:  14 pp (dashed lines)
- House SOA continued to drop off from March highs,
accelerating through May and June
- Anecdotally, less agents are attempting the holding
offers strategy
101% over asking June vs. '16:  15 pp (solid lines)
120% over asking June vs. '16:  3 pp (dashed lines)
- Condo peak one month after house peak
- Condo SOA (37%) was higher than House SOA (35%),
which has to be a first
40%
53%
58%
66%
68% 67%
57% 58%
63%
60%
53%
44%
59%
73%
80%
78%
59%
35%
6%
10% 12%
18%
21% 19%
15% 14%
16% 15% 15%
11%
18%
38%
45%
36%
17%
5%0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
416 Sold Over Asking - Houses
2016 2017 2016 20% OA 2017 20% OA
over asking
20% over asking
10%
12%
16%
20%
24%
22% 20% 20%
24%
26% 27% 26%
41%
54%
71%
74%
58%
37%
0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
3%
7%
20% 21%
9%
3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
416 Sold Over Asking - Condos
2016 2017 2016 20% OA 2017 20% OA

416 Annual Price Increases
(December vs. prior December average price, and current month 2017 compared to Dec 2016)
20 year House performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $51K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.5%.
20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $20K). 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is  5.0%.
19
46
(11)
27 36
2
49
10 12
130
(51)
57
40
22
33
117
54
105
210
105
2
19 12 20 12 3
19
7 11
42
(34)
60
20
4
(6)
29
17 22
65
83
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
YTD
$000s $ Increases
Houses Condos
7%
17%
(3%)
9% 11%
1%
13%
2% 3%
29%
(9%)
11%
7%
3% 5%
17%
7%
12%
22%
9%
2%
12%
7%
11%
6%
2%
9%
3% 4%
17%
(12%)
23%
6%
1%
(2%)
9%
4% 6%
16%
17%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17
YTD
% Increases
Houses Condos

416 Market Breakdown
1 year ago: Condos 56% / Houses 43%
5 years ago: Condos 51% / Houses 48%
As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new
condos are completed, transaction share should keep
shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter
home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.
While houses were only 41% of sales transaction volume,
in 2016, they accounted for 64% of dollar volume.
Detached
73%
Semi
20%
Row
7%
Share of House Transactions - last 12 months
Apartment
89%
Townhouse
11%
Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months
Houses
39%
Condos
60%
Share of Transactions - last 12 months

Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
I take a “Moneyball” approach to real estate, believing in the importance of both
quantitative and qualitative trends – especially in this rapidly shifting real estate market.
After having built up 20 years of trust as an accountant in Toronto's art and music
communities, I now combine my analytical skills and business savvy with my hometown
knowledge and passion to help people like you find their next home. I work with the
venerable CENTURY 21 brand at the Regal Realty Inc. brokerage on Queen St. West.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
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June 2017 - Major drop in sales: Toronto real estate market charts

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