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January 2019: Slow start - Toronto real estate market charts

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January should've looked better than 2018 due to the start of the insured mortgages stress test last year. But no.

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January 2019: Slow start - Toronto real estate market charts

  1. 1. Toronto Real Estate Market Charts January 2019 Creative Commons license Scott Ingram CPA, CA, MBA Realtor Chalmers House by Blok 70
  2. 2. Toronto Real Estate Monthly Market Charts Introduction You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean?? Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number you’re seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREB’s broader GTA-wide aggregate figures. I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos, because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.  indicator points to heating up (favours sellers),  denotes cooling down (favours buyers)
  3. 3. Detached $1,174K / Semi $993K / Row $976K Jan vs. '18:  $86K (-7.1%) Jan vs. '14:  $315K (39%) 5 year CAGR: 6.8% - 2 months in a row < prior year, after streak of 5 positive months - Detached -8.8% and Row -9.4%, while Semi +6.1% 416 Average Sold Price (dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Condo Apt $591K / Condo Townhouse $696K Jan vs. '18: $58K (10.6%) Jan vs. '14: $239K (66%) 5 year CAGR: 10.7% - Unlike Houses, is well clear of prior year prices 1,2051,1981,204 1,245 1,305 1,2451,226 1,146 1,2241,2141,226 1,071 1,119 600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 Avg Sold Price - Houses 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 544 584 597 610 608 613 591 590 623 609 603 601602 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $000s 416 Avg Price - Condos (Apt & Town) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
  4. 4. 416 Residential Sales Volume (number of sold transactions in the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Jan vs. '18:  25.3% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 24%) YTD vs. '18:  15% - Jan 2018 (510) was a 24-year low, due to pull-forward of demand into Nov/Dec 2017. So this year bad if can’t even beat that - Lowest Jan total in last 24 years Jan vs. '18:  6.0% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 3.8% ) YTD vs. '18:  6% - 19 of last 21 months were lower than previous year - Dec 10% lower than 7 year avg, 2nd worst this year - Rolling 12 month sales down third straight month. Now at 18,310 – lowest since Feb 2015. 510 720 1016 1186 1097 1252 940 855 986 1307 982 502484 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sales - Houses (Det & Semi & Row) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg 989 1267 1745 1735 1944 1808 1605 1556 1454 1681 1554 959 930 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
  5. 5. 416 Active Listings (snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month) Jan vs. '18:  0.8% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 18%) YTD vs. '18:  1% - Within recent seasonal ranges, though at higher end and 18% above 7 Yr Avg. - Still lower than 24-year Jan median (1991) and avg (2180) Jan vs. '18:  6.5% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 31%) YTD vs. '18:  6% - Higher than last 2 years, but lower than any other Jan after 2001 - Active Listings 900 less than 7 Yr Avg 1580 1800 1995 2327 2835 2758 2506 2119 2874 2780 2434 1537 1592 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Active Listings - Houses 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg 1846 1982 2080 2425 2923 2946 2934 2648 2909 2846 2486 1710 1960 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Active Listings - Condos 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
  6. 6. 416 Months Of Inventory (active listings at month end ÷ sales for month) Jan vs. '18: 0.2 months (6%) Jan vs. 7 Yr Avg: 1.0 months (45%) - Highest Jan since 2009 (6.7) - Underlying: Detached 3.9 (3.8 in Dec), Semi 1.9 (1.3), Row 1.7 (1.9) Jan vs. '18: 0.2 months (13%) Jan vs. 7 Yr Avg: 1.0 months (-32%) - Only 2nd time in last 35 months > 2.000 - Record 23 months in row condos < houses. In 254 months before March 2017, this only happened 19 times in total. Current spread (-1.18) is 3rd highest ever 3.1 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.2 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.3 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 MOI - Houses (Det & Semi & Row) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.6 1.8 2.1 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 MOI - Condos (Apt & Town) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
  7. 7. 416 Average Days On Market (days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month) century21.ca/scott.ingram Jan vs. '18:  1.1 days (4%) Jan vs. 7 Yr Avg:  5.9 days (22%) - Last year followed seasonal patterns, just at high end of recent ranges - Highest Jan since 2009 (44). (Dec was since 2012) - 6 days higher than Jan avg of last 10 years of 26 Jan vs. '18:  0.2 days (1%) Jan vs. 7 Yr Avg:  7.3 days (-21%) - Highest since 2016 (39) but still 4th lowest in 24 years - Diverged lower from averages in spring 2016 and hae stayed low since - Was only one Jan <38 before 2017, so 22-27-27 of last three years are exceptionally low 31 23 16 16 15 17 22 23 19 18 21 27 32 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 DOM - Houses (Det & Semi & Row) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg 27 22 17 16 17 17 20 23 23 21 22 26 27 0 10 20 30 40 50 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 DOM - Condos (Apt & Town) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
  8. 8. 416 New Listings (number of new MLS #s during the month – unfortunately includes re-listed properties) century21.ca/scott.ingram Jan vs. '18:  13.2% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 0%) YTD vs. '18:  13% - Last year saw higher new listings in Nov and Dec to try to beat the Jan 1 stress test implementation so Jan/Feb 2018 were lower than normal - terminations and re-listings distort this stat Jan vs. '18: 14.2% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 14%) YTD vs. '18: 14% - Dec 2018 was lowest since Dec 2001 so this has bounced back a bit - Still well below Jan norms 1074 1458 1895 2307 2885 2336 1816 1423 2712 2482 1672 515 1,216 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 New Listings - Houses 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg 1674 1886 2485 2867 3377 2855 2671 2298 2707 2777 2211 901 1912 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 New Listings - Condos (Apt & Town) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 7 Yr Avg
  9. 9. 416 Sold Over Asking (properties that sold at ≥101% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales) century21.ca/scott.ingram 101% or more of asking Jan vs. '18:  1 pp Month-over-month:  4 pp - 8th month in a row higher than prior year - Full year numbers: 2015 47%, 2016 60%, 2017 49%, 2018 34% 101% or more of asking Jan vs. '18:  2 pp Month-over-month:  3 pp - Whole last half of 2018 was close to 2016 and 2017 numbers - Days of SOA for a condo being just for special properties (11% for all 2015 sales) seem to be gone (27% for all 2018 sales) 73% 81% 78% 19% 32% 37% 41% 40% 35% 27% 25% 35% 37% 31% 24% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sold Over Asking - Houses 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15-'19 Avg 71% 74% 22% 31% 34% 34% 32% 29% 25% 21% 24% 24% 22% 17% 20% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sold Over Asking - Condos 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 15-'19 Avg
  10. 10. 416 Sold 20% Over Asking (properties that sold at ≥120% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales) century21.ca/scott.ingram 120% or more of asking Jan vs. '18:  2 pp Month-over-month:  4 pp - YoY increases in 7 of last 8 months - 20% SOA activity (and strategy of grossly underlisting) has moderated, with 2016 and the first bit of 2017 looking to be the outlier period 120% or more of asking Jan vs. '18:  4 pp Month-over-month:  4 pp - Interesting YoY jump in this practice for condos,with 5% beating recent Jan record of 3% in hot 2017 45% 3% 5% 7% 9% 9% 6% 4% 3% 7% 8% 6% 5%5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Houses 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20% 21% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Condos 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
  11. 11. 416 20-year Price CAGR (Current month vs. same month 20 years ago) 20 year House performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.17%; MoM change  16 bps 20 year Condo performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.96%; MoM change  7 bps 7.07% 8.21% 8.76% 7.99% 7.01% 7.17% 5.89% 5.74% 6.35% 6.50% 7.25% 6.96% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2016 2017 2018 2019 416 Average Prices: 20 Year CAGR Houses Condos
  12. 12. 416 10-year Price CAGR (Current month vs. same month 10 years ago) 10 year House performance: 10 year CAGR (as at current month) is 9.05%; MoM change  170 bps 10 year Condo performance: 10 year CAGR (as at current month) is 8.67%; MoM change  10 bps 7.94% 9.57% 10.93% 6.89% 8.47% 7.35% 9.05% 5.20% 6.09% 8.00% 6.74% 8.67% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2016 2017 2018 2019 416 Average Prices: 10 Year CAGR Houses Condos
  13. 13. 416 5-year Price CAGR (Current month vs. same month 5 years ago) 5 year House performance: 5 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.12%; MoM change  73 bps 5 year Condo performance: 5 year CAGR (as at current month) is 10.10%; MoM change  56 bps 9.81% 12.16% 13.90% 10.98% 6.12% 6.84% 4.97% 3.75% 7.18% 10.42% 9.68% 11.26% 10.66% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2016 2017 2018 2019 416 Average Prices: 5 Year CAGR Houses Condos
  14. 14. 416 Market Breakdown 1 year ago: Condos 61% / Houses 38% 5 years ago: Condos 51% / Houses 48% 10 years ago: Condos 50% / Houses 49% 15 years ago: Condos 42% / Houses 56% 20 years ago: Condos 38% / Houses 60% As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new condos are completed, transaction share should keep shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter home” and not held onto as long on average as houses. While houses were only 38% of 2018 sales transactions, they were 55% of dollar volume (38% and 59% in 2017, 35% and 64% in 2016). Houses 38% Condos 61% Share of Transactions - last 12 months Detached 69% Semi 23% Row 8% Share of House Transactions - last 12 months Apartment 90% Townhouse 10% Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months
  15. 15. Would you like to make better-informed real estate decisions? I believe knowledge is power. So, I invest a lot of time researching and analyzing data and trends in the Toronto real estate market. My Chartered Accountant (CPA, CA) side also compels me to dig way deeper than most agents into the numbers on individual properties my clients are interested in. If you would like to benefit from the same type of analysis and insight that is sought by media outlets and institutional investors, reach out. Because better information = better decisions. Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant. @areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram Click for more fresh statistics and insight on Toronto real estate:

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