Toronto real estate market saw average home prices increase year-over-year in August 2018. Detached home prices rose 5.4% to $1,244K on average, while condo prices increased 7.8% to $585K. Home sales volumes were up slightly for houses but down for condos compared to the previous year. Inventory levels remained tight, with months of inventory at 2.5 for houses and 1.6 for condos. The market continued to show signs of stabilizing from the heated conditions of recent years.

1. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Charts
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
Realtor
Chalmers House
by Blok 70
Aug
2018

2. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
Introduction
You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??
Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number
you’re seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow
will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is
the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREB’s broader GTA-wide aggregate figures.
I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos,
because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably
more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I
aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.
 indicator points to heating up (favours sellers),  denotes cooling down (favours buyers)

3. Detached $1,244K / Semi $891 / Row $920K
Aug vs. ‘17: $59K (5.4%)
Aug vs. '13: $421K (62%)
5 year CAGR: 9.6%
- YoY percentage has improved 6 months in a row
- MoM drop of $80K (-6.5%) is second (to 2017) largest
Jul to Aug drop since 1996 (avg -2.1%)
416 Average Sold Price
(dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Condo Apt $585K / Condo Townhouse $617K
Aug vs. ‘17: $43K (7.8%)
Aug vs. '13: $231K (64%)
5 year CAGR: 10.5%
- MoM avg price change of -0.4% was first drop from
July to Aug since 2014, but pretty much at
median/avg of -0.3% since 1996
1,218
1,4391,429
1,455
1,373
1,268
1,177
1,088
1,215
1,1831,171
1,125
1,2051,1981,204
1,245
1,305
1,2451,227
1,147
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
421
444
428
452 456 459
438
459 462
474 484 476485
524
562
590
573
559
541 546
557 564 564
539544
584
597
610 608 613
592 589
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

4. 416 Residential Sales Volume
(number of sold transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Aug vs. '17: 5.9% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 16%)
YTD vs. '17: 19%
- Third positive YoY month for sales in a row
- 859 Aug sales is second lowest since 1996 (besting
only 2017), and 25% below the 23 year avg
Aug vs. '17:  3.9% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 3.7% )
YTD vs. '17: 17%
- Right back to negative YoY, after July was first positive
since April 2017 (14 negatives in a row)
- Lowest August since 2013
- Rolling 12 month sales of 18,890 steady last 4 months
623 1054
1636 1680
1588
1185
786 811
956
1180 1169
675
510
720
1,018
1,188
1,098
1,254
942 859
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1254
1816
2565
2400
2271
1912
1479
1628
1518
1663
1779
1258
990
1267
1745 1736
1945
1813
1612 1564
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

5. 416 Active Listings
(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Aug vs. '17:  4.6% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 8%)
YTD vs. '17: 18%
- Within recent seasonal ranges
- Low 2016 numbers look like the big outlier
- Excluding outlier 2016, average since 2011 is 2,114, so
this is right on
Aug vs. '17: 1.3% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 34%)
YTD vs. '17: 8%
- Lowest August number since 2001 (1962)
- Active Listings 1400 less than 7 Yr Avg (better than
~1700 off in recent months)
- Seem to be following seasonal patterns this year – just
at much lower levels
679
836
1228
2034
2941 2876
2574
2026
2715 2742 2687
1805
1580
1800
1995
2327
2835 2758
2506
2119
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1529 1443 1546
2148
2854
3074 3080
2682
2986 2907
2697
1899
1846 1982 2080
2425
2923 2946 2934
2648
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Condos
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

6. 416 Months Of Inventory
(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)
Aug vs. '17:  0.0 months (-1%)
Aug vs. 7 Yr Avg: 0.5 months (25%)
- Aug 2.5 is right at average since 1996
- As always, varies a lot by housing type. Detached 2.8
(Jul 3.0) / Semi 1.4 (1.7) / Row 2.3 (1.7)
Aug vs. '17:  0.0 months (3%)
Aug vs. 7 Yr Avg: 0.9 months (-35%)
- Third lowest Aug ever, behind last 2 years
- 29 of last 30 months have been below 2.00
- Record 18 months in row condos < houses. In 254
months before March 2017, this only happened 19
times in total
1.1
0.8 0.8
1.2
1.9
2.4
3.3
2.5
2.8
2.3 2.3
2.7
3.1
2.5
2.0 2.0
2.6
2.2
2.7
2.5
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.6
2.1
1.6
2.0
1.7
1.5 1.5
1.9
1.6
1.2
1.4 1.5 1.6
1.8 1.7
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

7. 416 Average Days On Market
(days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Aug vs. '17:  0.4 days (-2%)
Aug vs. 7 Yr Avg:  2.5 days (12%)
- Overall GTA DOM for all housing types is up from 25 in
July to 27 days so 416 better than 905 in this regard
- Still below historical Aug avg (since Jan ‘96) of 30
(and all months’ avg of 28.0 and median of 26.6)
Aug vs. '17:  0.1 days (1%)
Aug vs. 7 Yr Avg:  5.6 days (-19%)
- A touch behind last year (23. 3 vs. 23.2) for lowest
August from 1996 onwards.
- Well below historical Aug avg (since Jan ’96) of 38
17
11
9 8
10
14
21
24
20
18
21
25
31
23
16 16 15
17
22
23
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
22
17
12
10
12
15
20
23.2 22 22 21
23
27
22
17 16
17 17
20
23.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

8. 416 New Listings
(number of new MLS #s during the month – unfortunately includes re-listed properties)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Aug vs. '17:  8.4% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 10%)
YTD vs. '17: 18%
- More new listings than last August, when everybody
thought sellers were holding out for September
- terminations and re-listings distort this stat
Aug vs. '17:  2.0% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 12%)
YTD vs. '17: 13%
- First month this year has been higher than 2017
- Condo new listings for Aug (2,298) the lowest they’ve
been since 2010 (2,253)
973
1459
2485
3336
4253
2846
1760
1310
2671
2359 2254
887
1074
1458
1895
2306
2885
2336
1814
1420
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1886
2096
3188
3588
4138
3385
2693
2253
2826
2645 2573
1235
1674
1886
2485
2867
3377
2856
2674
2298
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

9. 416 Sold Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥101% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
101% or more of asking Aug vs. '17:  3 pp
Month-over-month:  1 pp
- Slightly hotter than last year, but less hot than prior
years
101% or more of asking Aug vs. '17:  3 pp
Month-over-month:  4 pp
- Highest Aug in recent years (which probably means
history because SOA in condos is a pretty new
phenomenon)
- Converging to become close to 2016 and 2017 back
half of the year numbers
59%
73%
81%
78%
59%
35%
22% 23%
26%
28% 29%
21%
19%
32%
37%
41% 40%
35%
27% 26%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Houses
2015 2016 2017 2018
41%
54%
71%
74%
58%
36%
24%
18%
23% 21%
23%
22%
22%
31%
34% 34%
32%
29%
25%
21%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Condos
2015 2016 2017 2018

10. 416 Sold 20% Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥120% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
120% or more of asking Aug vs. '17:  0 pp
Month-over-month:  1 pp
- 20% SOA activity (and strategy of grossly underlisting)
looks to be moderating, with 2016 and the first bit of
2017 looking to be the outlier period
120% or more of asking Aug vs. '17:  0 pp
Month-over-month:  1 pp
- This practice is back to being rare in condos – the 4
months Feb to May 2017 stand out as a blip
18%
38%
45%
36%
17%
5%
3% 3% 3% 4% 5% 4%3%
5% 7%
9% 9% 6%
4% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Houses
2015 20% 2016 20% 2017 20% 2018 20%
3%
7%
20% 21%
9%
1% 1% 1% 1% 1%1% 2%
3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Condos
2015 20% 2016 20% 2017 20% 2018 20%

11. 416 Annual Price Increases
(December vs. prior December average price, and current month 2018 compared to Dec 2017)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
20 year House performance: 17 years 3 years (Avg $44)
20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $22K)
46
(11)
27 36
2
49
10 12
130
(51)
57
40
22 33
117
54
105
210
(39)
2219 12 20 12 3
19
7 11
42
(34)
60
20
4
(6)
29
17 22
65 63
50
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
$000s
$ Increases
Houses Condos
17%
(3%)
9%
11%
1%
13%
2% 3%
29%
(9%)
11%
7%
3% 5%
17%
7%
12%
22%
(3%)
2%12%
7%
11%
6%
2%
9%
3% 4%
17%
(12%)
23%
6%
1%
(2%)
9%
4% 6%
16%
13%
9%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
% Increases
Houses Condos

12. 5.50%
6.37%
7.64%
5.60%
6.21%
3.87%
3.66%
4.31%
5.12%
5.54%
5.05%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2016 2017 2018
416 Average Prices: 20 Year CAGR
Houses Condos
416 20-year Price CAGRS
(Current month vs. same month 20 years ago)
20 year House performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 5.93%; MoM change  37 bps
20 year Condo performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 5.47%; MoM change  24 bps

13. 416 Market Breakdown
1 year ago: Condos 60% / Houses 40%
5 years ago: Condos 50% / Houses 49%
10 years ago: Condos 48% / Houses 51%
20 years ago: Condos 36% / Houses 62%
As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new
condos are completed, transaction share should keep
shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter
home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.
While houses were only 38% of 2017 sales transactions,
they were 59% of dollar volume (35% and 64% in 2016).
Detached
69%
Semi
23%
Row
8%
Share of House Transactions - last 12 months
Houses
38%
Condos
62%
Share of Transactions - last 12 months
Apartment
88%
Townhouse
12%
Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months

14. Would you like to make better-informed real estate decisions? I believe knowledge is
power. So, I invest a lot of time researching and analyzing data and trends in the
Toronto real estate market. My Chartered Accountant (CPA, CA) side also compels
me to dig way deeper than most agents into the numbers on individual properties my
clients are interested in. If you would like to benefit from the same type of analysis and
insight that is sought by media outlets and institutional investors, reach out. Because
better information = better decisions.
Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
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