It was a pretty sad year for freeholds in 2018, but condos showed several signs of weakness too as the year closed out.

1. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Charts
Creative Commons license
Scott Ingram
CPA, CA, MBA
Realtor
Chalmers House
by Blok 70
Dec
2018

2. Toronto Real Estate
Monthly Market Charts
Introduction
You read sales last month were up x% over last year. What does that really mean??
Was last year a down year, an average year, or a record year? Is that GTA number
you’re seeing driven by the 416 or the 905? Is there a clear trend? The charts that follow
will add context and perspective to Toronto’s monthly real estate statistics. My focus is
the 416, so I pull those numbers out of TREB’s broader GTA-wide aggregate figures.
I also separate Toronto’s two distinct market segments: houses (freeholds) and condos,
because lumping them together obscures a lot of information, and you are probably
more interested in one than the other. With segmentation and some historical context, I
aim to give you a clearer vision of market movements and trends.
 indicator points to heating up (favours sellers),  denotes cooling down (favours buyers)

3. Detached $1,146K / Semi $940K / Row $861K
Dec vs. ‘17:  $54K (4.8%)
Dec vs. '13: $275K (41%)
5 year CAGR: 6.1%
- Ended streak of 5 positive months vs. last year
- First time this year price below 2016 level
- All driven by Detached -8.0%. Semi +4.0%, Row +2.9%
416 Average Sold Price
(dollar volume ÷ number of transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Condo Apt $594K / Condo Townhouse $653K
Dec vs. ‘17: $63K (11.7%)
Dec vs. '13: $230K (62%)
5 year CAGR: 10.1%
- Unlike Houses, is well clear of 2017 and 2016 prices
1,218
1,4391,429
1,455
1,373
1,268
1,177
1,088
1,215
1,1831,171
1,125
1,2051,1981,204
1,245
1,305
1,2451,226
1,146
1,2241,2141,225
1,071
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
421
444
428
452 456 459
438
459 462
474 484 476485
524
562
590
573
559
541 546 557 564 564
539544
584
597
610 608 613
591 590
623
609 602 601
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
$000s 416 Avg Price - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

4. 416 Residential Sales Volume
(number of sold transactions in the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Dec vs. '17:  25.3% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 24%)
YTD vs. '17: 15%
- 2 negative YoY month in a row after 5 consecutive
positive months. Largely due to 2017 late rush to beat
Jan 1 stress test implementation
- Lowest Dec total from Jan ‘96 to today
Dec vs. '17:  23.5% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 10.1% )
YTD vs. '17: 15%
- Ten of 12 months were lower than 2017
- Dec 10% lower than 7 year avg, 2nd worst this year
- Rolling 12 month sales dropped to 18,310 – lowest
since Feb 2015.
623
1054
1636 1680
1588
1185
786 811
956
1180 1169
675
510
720
1,016
1,187
1,097
1,252
940 855
987
1,311
988
504
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1254
1816
2565
2400
2271
1912
1479
1628
1518
1663
1779
1258
989
1267
1745 1735
1944
1808
1605 1556
1454
1686
1559
962
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sales - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

5. 416 Active Listings
(snapshot of properties available for sale at end of each month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Dec vs. '17:  14.8% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 20%)
YTD vs. '17: 10%
- Within recent seasonal ranges, though at higher end
- Low 2016 numbers look like the big outlier
- Still lower than 23-year median (1690) and avg (1939)
Dec vs. '17: 10.0% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 35%)
YTD vs. '17: 3%
- Second lowest October number since 2002
- Active Listings 900 less than 7 Yr Avg
- Following seasonal patterns this year – just at much
lower levels
679
836
1228
2034
2941 2876
2574
2026
2715 2742 2687
1805
1580
1800
1995
2327
2835 2758
2506
2119
2874 2780
2434
1537
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1529
1443 1546
2148
2854
3074 3080
2682
2986 2907
2697
1899
1846 1982 2080
2425
2923 2946 2934
2648
2909 2846
2486
1710
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Active Listings - Condos
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

6. 416 Months Of Inventory
(active listings at month end ÷ sales for month)
Dec vs. '17: 0.4 months (14%)
Dec vs. 7 Yr Avg: 1.1 months (53%)
- Highest Dec since Dec 2008 (7.8)
- Highest Nov to Dec rise (0.59) since 2008 (0.86)
- As always, varies a lot by housing type. Detached 3.8
/ Semi 1.3 / Row 1.9. Of those 3, Detached only one
to increase vs. Nov
Dec vs. '17: 0.3 months (18%)
Dec vs. 7 Yr Avg: 0.9 months (-33%)
- 33 of last 34 months have been below 2.000
- Record 22 months in row condos < houses. In 254
months before March 2017, this only happened 19
times in total. Current spread (-1.27) is second largest
ever, and highest since one month fluke of May 1996
1.1
0.8 0.8
1.2
1.9
2.4
3.3
2.5
2.8
2.3 2.3
2.7
3.1
2.5
2.0 2.0
2.6
2.2
2.7
2.5
2.9
2.1
2.5
3.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1.2
0.8
0.6
0.9
1.3
1.6
2.1
1.6
2.0
1.7
1.5 1.5
1.9
1.6
1.2
1.4 1.5 1.6
1.8 1.7
2.0
1.7 1.6
1.8
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 MOI - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

7. 416 Average Days On Market
(days from listed to sold, for those properties sold during the month)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Dec vs. '17:  1.9 days (8%)
Dec vs. 7 Yr Avg:  2.0 days (8%)
- Following seasonal patterns this year, just at high end
of recent ranges
- Highest Dec since 2012 (29)
- Still close to Dec average of last 10 years of 26
Dec vs. '17:  3.0 days (13%)
Dec vs. 7 Yr Avg: 5.5 days (-17%)
- Highest sine 2015 (35) but still 3rd lowest in 23 years
- Only one month this year (Oct) was lower than 2017
- Well below historical Dec avg since Jan ’96 of 43, or
last 10 years of 32
17
11
9 8
10
14
21
24
20
18
21
25
31
23
16 16 15
17
22
23
19 18
21
27
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Houses (Det & Semi & Row)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
22
17
12
10
12
15
20
23 22 22 21
23
27
22
17 16
17 17
20
23 23
21
22
26
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 DOM - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

8. 416 New Listings
(number of new MLS #s during the month – unfortunately includes re-listed properties)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
Dec vs. '17:  42.1% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 18%)
YTD vs. '17: 15%
- Last year saw higher new listings in Nov and Dec to try
to beat the Jan 1 stress test implementation
- terminations and re-listings distort this stat
Dec vs. '17: 27.0% (vs. 7 Yr Avg: 21%)
YTD vs. '17: 12%
- Only 2 months this year were higher than 2017
- 902 new listings in Dec were first month <1000 sicne
Dec 2002 month was lowest since Dec 2001 (781)
973
1459
2485
3336
4253
2846
1760
1310
2671
2359 2254
887
1074
1458
1895
2307
2885
2336
1815
1423
2712
2482
1671
514
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Houses
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg
1886
2096
3188
3588
4138
3385
2693
2253
2826
2645 2573
1235
1674
1886
2485
2867
3377
2855
2671
2298
2707 2777 2208
902
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 New Listings - Condos (Apt & Town)
2012 2013 2014 2015
2016 2017 2018 7 Yr Avg

9. 416 Sold Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥101% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
101% or more of asking Dec vs. ‘17:  2 pp
Month-over-month:  7 pp
- Seventh month in a row higher than last year
101% or more of asking Dec vs. '17:  4 pp
Month-over-month:  5 pp
- 2 months in a row lower than last year, after 4 in a
row higher
- Whole last half of year has been close to 2016 and
2017 numbers
59%
73%
81%
78%
59%
35%
22% 23%
26%
28% 29%
21%
19%
32%
37%
41% 40%
35%
27%
25%
35%
37%
31%
24%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Houses
2015 2016 2017 2018
41%
54%
71%
74%
58%
36%
24%
18%
23% 21%
23%
22%
22%
31%
34% 34%
32%
29%
25%
21%
24% 24% 22%
17%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold Over Asking - Condos
2015 2016 2017 2018

10. 416 Sold 20% Over Asking
(properties that sold at ≥120% of list price, as percent of total monthly sales)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
120% or more of asking Dec vs. '17:  1 pp
Month-over-month:  1 pp
- Positive YoY in 7 of last 8 months
- 20% SOA activity (and strategy of grossly underlisting)
has moderated, with 2016 and the first bit of 2017
looking to be the outlier period
120% or more of asking Dec vs. '17:  0 pp
Month-over-month:  0 pp
- This practice is back to being rare in condos – the 4
months Feb to May 2017 stand out as a blip
18%
38%
45%
36%
17%
5%
3% 3% 3% 4% 5%
4%3%
5% 7%
9% 9% 6%
4% 3%
7% 8% 6% 5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Houses
2015 2016 2017 2018
3%
7%
20% 21%
9%
1% 1%1% 2%
3% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
416 Sold 20% Over Asking - Condos
2015 2016 2017 2018

11. 416 Annual Price Increases
(Q4 vs. prior Q4 average price)
century21.ca/scott.ingram
20 year House performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $45)
20 year Condo performance: 18 years 2 years (Avg $22)
34
10 11
41
25 30 21 31
77
(58)
86
45 46
13
106
65
91
239
(30)
27
14 14 14 19
4
17
5 12
41
(26)
51
18 20
(5)
30
10
23
60
80
47
(100)
(50)
0
50
100
150
200
250
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
$000s $ Increases
Houses Condos
12%
3% 3%
12%
7% 7%
5%
7%
16%
-10%
17%
8% 7%
2%
15%
8%
11%
25%
-2%
2%
9%
9% 8%
10%
2%
8%
2%
5%
16%
-9%
19%
6%
6%
-1%
8%
3%
6%
14%
17% 8%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18
% Increases
Houses Condos

12. 416 20-year Price CAGR
(Current month vs. same month 20 years ago)
20 year House performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.01%; MoM change  65 bps
20 year Condo performance: 20 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.04%; MoM change  0 bps
7.07%
8.16%
8.76%
7.66% 7.66%
7.01%
5.89% 5.74%
6.24%
6.53%
7.25%
7.04%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2016 2017 2018
416 Average Prices: 20 Year CAGR
Houses
Condos
Linear (Condos)

13. 416 10-year Price CAGR
(Current month vs. same month 10 years ago)
10 year House performance: 10 year CAGR (as at current month) is 7.36%; MoM change  182 bps
10 year Condo performance: 10 year CAGR (as at current month) is 8.57%; MoM change  5 bps
NEW
7.94%
10.03%
10.93%
6.89%
9.53%
7.36%
5.20%
6.38%
8.00%
6.07%
8.57%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2016 2017 2018
416 Average Prices: 10 Year CAGR
Houses
Condos

14. 416 5-year Price CAGR
(Current month vs. same month 5 years ago)
5 year House performance: 5 year CAGR (as at current month) is 6.12%; MoM change  292 bps
5 year Condo performance: 5 year CAGR (as at current month) is 10.10%; MoM change  104 bps
NEW
9.81%
12.54%
13.90%
10.65%
6.12%
4.97%
3.75%
6.46%
10.42%
9.49%
11.26%
10.10%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2016 2017 2018
416 Average Prices: 5 Year CAGR
Houses
Condos

15. 416 Market Breakdown
1 year ago: Condos 61% / Houses 38%
5 years ago: Condos 51% / Houses 48%
10 years ago: Condos 50% / Houses 49%
20 years ago: Condos 38% / Houses 60%
As the supply of houses is essentially fixed, and more new
condos are completed, transaction share should keep
shifting towards condos. Also, condos are often a “starter
home” and not held onto as long on average as houses.
While houses were only 38% of 2017 sales transactions,
they were 56% of dollar volume (38% and 59% in 2017,
35% and 64% in 2016).
Apartment
88%
Townhouse
12%
Share of Condo Transactions - last 12 months
Houses
38%
Condos
61%
Share of Transactions - last 12 months
Detached
70%
Semi
23%
Row
8%
Share of House Transactions - last 12 months

16. Would you like to make better-informed real estate decisions? I believe knowledge is
power. So, I invest a lot of time researching and analyzing data and trends in the
Toronto real estate market. My Chartered Accountant (CPA, CA) side also compels
me to dig way deeper than most agents into the numbers on individual properties my
clients are interested in. If you would like to benefit from the same type of analysis and
insight that is sought by media outlets and institutional investors, reach out. Because
better information = better decisions.
Your home is the single largest investment you'll make — trust it with an accountant.
@areacode416 century21.ca/scott.ingram
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