TMC Future Truck
Far Horizons
Spring 2017
GHG 2
IAA Commercial Vehicle in Hannover
ATA MC&E, SAE Comvec, and ELD Mandate
DOT Connected Vehicle Rules
DOT Autonomous Vehicle Guidelines
Technology Trending
Imagination (Backup Only)
Trucking’s
Mission
Move Freight
S afely
E fficiently
e X peditiously
GHG 2
Engine—Spark Ignited
Friction Reduction
Variable Valve Timing
Coupled Cam Phasing for Overhead Valve and Single Overhead Camshaft
Intake Cam {hasing for Dual Overhead Camshaft
Dual Cam Phasing for Dual Overhead Camshaft Engines
Variable Valve Lift
Discrete Variable Valve Lift
Cylinder Deactivation
Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection
Turbocharging and Downsizing
Engine Down Speeding
Engine—Combustion Ignited
Low Temperature Exhaust Gas Recirculation
Combustion System Optimization
Model Based Control
Turbocharging System
Engine Breathing System
Engine Parasitic and Friction Reduction
Integrated Aftertreatment System
Engine Downsizing and Down Speeding
Waste Heat Recovery
GHG 2
Aerodynamics
Active Grille Shutter
Innovative Plastics
Complete Vehicle Redesign (SuperTruck I and II)
Tires
Improved Rolling Resistance
Wide Base Singles
Tire Pressure Systems
Retreaded Tires
Transmissions
Optimizing Number of Gears and Gear Ratios
Gear Efficiencies
Shift Strategiess
Architectures (AMT, DCT)
Hybrid Powertrain Systems
Axles
Axle Efficiency
Gear Ratio
Tandem Drive Axle Improvements (6x2)
Weight Reduction
Material Substitution
Synergistic Effects—Reduced Power Demand
Variable Speed Limiter
Reduced Idling Time
Engine Shutdown with Alternate Power Source
during Hoteling
Idle Control Technologies
Tamper-Proof AESS, Tamper-Proof AESS w/
Diesel APU’ Tamper-Proof AESS w.Battery
APU, Tamper-Proof AESS w/ Automatic Stop-
Start, Tamper-Proof AESS w/ FOH Cold, Main
Engine Warm, Adjustable AESS w/ Disel APU,
Adjustable AESS w/ Battery APU, Adjustable
AESS w/ Atuomatic Stop-Start, Adjustable
AESS w/ FOH Cold, Main Engine Warm,
Adjustable AESS programmed to 5 minutes
Stop Start (different than above?)
Neutral Idle
Air Conditioning
Refrigerant Leakage
System Efficiency
Solar Control
GHG 2
Other Accessory Improvements
Predictive Cruise Control
Similar, not exact list for HD Pickups and Vans
Mild and Strong Hybrids
Electrification
Another List for Vocational Vehicles
Trailers
Aerodynamic Drag Reduction
Tire Rolling Resistance
Tire Pressure Systems
Weight Reduction
Tractors Will Be More Aerodynamic
More Electric, Better Air Conditioning
Super Duper Twoper for 21st Century
http://www.navistar.com/navistar/news/
Sept 28, 2016
http://www.volvotrucks.us/about-volvo/news-
and-events/high-tech-supertruck-exceeds-goals/ http://social.cummins.com/cummins-partner-peterbilt-supertruck-ii/
http://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko/
Daimler-Trucks-North-America-presents-the-all-new-
Freightlin.xhtml?oid=13520926
https://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/vehicle-technologies-office-21st-century-truck-partnership
GHG 2 Summary
Huge opportunity for competitive advantage for OEMs
Huge opportunity for confusion for fleets
Fleets should create their own basket of technologies
IAA 2016 & CES 2017—Electrifying
IAA 2016
Eaton
ZF
Meritor
Daimler
Dana
BWP
Iveco
Z Truck Concept
Voith
Volvo
MAN
FUSO
In Case You Think It’s All Hot Air
ATA MC&E, SAE ComVec, ELD Mandate
Increasing Feature War ala Engine ECUs
Connected
DOT Connected Vehicle Rules
NPRM Issues December 13, 2016
90 Day Comment Period
Light Vehicles 10,000 Pounds or Less
Start 2 Years after Final Rule
50% Year 1, 75% Year 2, 100% Year 3
Basic Safety Message (BSM) over DSRC
Time
Location based on defined Vehicle Reference Point (problem for tractors with varying trailer lengths)
Longitude, Latitude, Elevation
Movement
Speed, Heading, Acceleration, Yaw rate (Stability Control coming for truck tractors), path history, path
prediction, exterior lights, event flags
See SAE J2735
Vehicle Based Motion Indicators
Transmission state, steering wheel angle
Vehicle Size
Optional Data Elements
Excluded Data Elements
https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/us-dot-advances-deployment-connected-vehicle-technology-prevent-hundreds-thousands
DOT Autonomous Vehicle Guidelines
https://www.transportation.gov/AV
15-Point Safety Assessment
•Operational Design Domain: How and where the HAV is supposed to function and operate;
• Object and Event Detection and Response: Perception and response functionality of the
HAV system;
• Fall Back (Minimal Risk Condition): Response and robustness of the HAV upon system
failure;
• Validation Methods: Testing, validation, and verification of an HAV system;
• Registration and Certification: Registration and certification to NHTSA of an HAV system;
• Data Recording and Sharing: HAV system data recording for information sharing,
knowledge building and for crash reconstruction purposes;
• Post-Crash Behavior: Process for how an HAV should perform after a crash and how
automation functions can be restored;
• Privacy: Privacy considerations and protections for users;
• System Safety: Engineering safety practices to support reasonable system safety;
• Vehicle Cybersecurity: Approaches to guard against vehicle hacking risks;
• Human Machine Interface: Approaches for communicating information to the driver,
occupant and other road users;
• Crashworthiness: Protection of occupants in crash situations;
• Consumer Education and Training: Education and training requirements for users of HAVs;
• Ethical Considerations: How vehicles are programmed to address conflict dilemmas on the
road; and
• Federal, State and Local Laws: How vehicles are programmed to comply with all
applicable traffic laws.
Division of Federal and State Responsibility
Federal responsibilities include:
• Setting safety standards for new motor vehicles and motor vehicle
equipment;
• Enforcing compliance with the safety standards;
• Investigating and managing the recall and remedy of non-compliances
and safety-related motor vehicle defects on a nationwide basis;
• Communicating with and educating the public about motor vehicle
safety issues; and
• When necessary, issuing guidance to achieve national safety goals
State responsibilities include:
• Licensing (human) drivers and registering motor vehicles in their
jurisdictions;
• Enacting and enforcing traffic laws and regulations;
• Conducting safety inspections, when States choose to do so; and
• Regulating motor vehicle insurance and liability.
Hype, Adoption, and “The Chasm”
Title
Truck & Transportation Technology Trends
NewVehicleorMarket
Penetration
0%
15%
100%
Years Since First Reports
0 5 10 20 30
Where would you place these items?

Cameras

Virtual Reality

ESC

Data standardization

Tire Pressure Monitoring

Biometrics

AMT

Radar Collision Warning

Autonomous Vehicles

Electric Vehicles (Nikola)

Wireless

???
Truck & Transportation Technology Trends
NewVehicleorMarket
Penetration
0%
15%
100%
Years Since First Reports
0 5 10 20 30
Recommended
Maintenance
Practices
FutureTruck
Position Paper
Recommended
Design
Practices
Cycle Disconnect
• Infrastructure takes a long time

• Vehicles take a bit less

• Consumer electronics take very little

• We’ve talked about the disconnect with consumer
electronics expectations and passenger cars for
decades

• We don’t have Apple CarPlay in a truck yet

• Pass cars may have V2V required in 2019

• And we expect automated trucks when?
Trucking’s
Mission
Move Freight
S afely
E fficiently
e X peditiously
Thanks!
Imagination
Photo Parts Search
OEM CAD/CAE has capability to search “similar” parts

Tried searching for universal joint from iPhone photo

Results now are disappointing
Amazon Go
http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/news/2016/12/05/amazon-go-supermarket-no-checkout-no-cashiers-artificial-intelligence-sensors/94991612/
Apply to rear of trailer as material goes in
and out
The Freight Shuttle System: A 21st Century Solution to Freight
Transportation Challenges
Inland Ports? Platooning/A
Vehicles?
Hud, Touch, Augmented, Virtual, Reality
• Continental HUD at IAA

• Boeing Touch

• Augmented

• Virtual

• LangMekra, WABCO, Continental and several more

• Reality

• Scania, Freightliner Cascadia (show pictures)
Touch Me
Holographic Lighting
http://www.hella.com/hella-com/en/Technology-Products-19-10-2016-12601.html
Imagine a driver wearing gloves that change
color when he does something good or bad
with the steering wheel
How Fast will an AT (autonomous tractor) go?
Which Lane Is Best?
http://www.traffictechnologytoday.com/news.php?NewsID=80087
The Sun Is Shining
Where Is Natural Gas Going?
Imagine
Any Shape You Want
Dynamic Trailer Advertising
License Plates—Change After 125 Years

What else? Labelling on door?
The rPlate houses a GPS, accelerometer, RF sensors, CAN bus access, storage and is built to withstand all weather and extreme conditions. The
rPlate's 6" x 12" display is the same size as a standard state license plate and its anti-reflective screen is legible in all weather conditions.

TMC 2017 Spring Far Horizon Future Truck Final

  • 1.
    TMC Future Truck FarHorizons Spring 2017 GHG 2 IAA Commercial Vehicle in Hannover ATA MC&E, SAE Comvec, and ELD Mandate DOT Connected Vehicle Rules DOT Autonomous Vehicle Guidelines Technology Trending Imagination (Backup Only)
  • 2.
  • 3.
    GHG 2 Engine—Spark Ignited FrictionReduction Variable Valve Timing Coupled Cam Phasing for Overhead Valve and Single Overhead Camshaft Intake Cam {hasing for Dual Overhead Camshaft Dual Cam Phasing for Dual Overhead Camshaft Engines Variable Valve Lift Discrete Variable Valve Lift Cylinder Deactivation Stoichiometric Gasoline Direct Injection Turbocharging and Downsizing Engine Down Speeding Engine—Combustion Ignited Low Temperature Exhaust Gas Recirculation Combustion System Optimization Model Based Control Turbocharging System Engine Breathing System Engine Parasitic and Friction Reduction Integrated Aftertreatment System Engine Downsizing and Down Speeding Waste Heat Recovery
  • 4.
    GHG 2 Aerodynamics Active GrilleShutter Innovative Plastics Complete Vehicle Redesign (SuperTruck I and II) Tires Improved Rolling Resistance Wide Base Singles Tire Pressure Systems Retreaded Tires Transmissions Optimizing Number of Gears and Gear Ratios Gear Efficiencies Shift Strategiess Architectures (AMT, DCT) Hybrid Powertrain Systems Axles Axle Efficiency Gear Ratio Tandem Drive Axle Improvements (6x2) Weight Reduction Material Substitution Synergistic Effects—Reduced Power Demand Variable Speed Limiter Reduced Idling Time Engine Shutdown with Alternate Power Source during Hoteling Idle Control Technologies Tamper-Proof AESS, Tamper-Proof AESS w/ Diesel APU’ Tamper-Proof AESS w.Battery APU, Tamper-Proof AESS w/ Automatic Stop- Start, Tamper-Proof AESS w/ FOH Cold, Main Engine Warm, Adjustable AESS w/ Disel APU, Adjustable AESS w/ Battery APU, Adjustable AESS w/ Atuomatic Stop-Start, Adjustable AESS w/ FOH Cold, Main Engine Warm, Adjustable AESS programmed to 5 minutes Stop Start (different than above?) Neutral Idle Air Conditioning Refrigerant Leakage System Efficiency Solar Control
  • 5.
    GHG 2 Other AccessoryImprovements Predictive Cruise Control Similar, not exact list for HD Pickups and Vans Mild and Strong Hybrids Electrification Another List for Vocational Vehicles Trailers Aerodynamic Drag Reduction Tire Rolling Resistance Tire Pressure Systems Weight Reduction
  • 6.
    Tractors Will BeMore Aerodynamic
  • 7.
    More Electric, BetterAir Conditioning
  • 10.
    Super Duper Twoperfor 21st Century http://www.navistar.com/navistar/news/ Sept 28, 2016 http://www.volvotrucks.us/about-volvo/news- and-events/high-tech-supertruck-exceeds-goals/ http://social.cummins.com/cummins-partner-peterbilt-supertruck-ii/ http://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko/ Daimler-Trucks-North-America-presents-the-all-new- Freightlin.xhtml?oid=13520926 https://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/vehicle-technologies-office-21st-century-truck-partnership
  • 11.
    GHG 2 Summary Hugeopportunity for competitive advantage for OEMs Huge opportunity for confusion for fleets Fleets should create their own basket of technologies
  • 12.
    IAA 2016 &CES 2017—Electrifying
  • 13.
  • 14.
    In Case YouThink It’s All Hot Air
  • 15.
    ATA MC&E, SAEComVec, ELD Mandate
  • 16.
    Increasing Feature Warala Engine ECUs
  • 17.
  • 18.
    DOT Connected VehicleRules NPRM Issues December 13, 2016 90 Day Comment Period Light Vehicles 10,000 Pounds or Less Start 2 Years after Final Rule 50% Year 1, 75% Year 2, 100% Year 3 Basic Safety Message (BSM) over DSRC Time Location based on defined Vehicle Reference Point (problem for tractors with varying trailer lengths) Longitude, Latitude, Elevation Movement Speed, Heading, Acceleration, Yaw rate (Stability Control coming for truck tractors), path history, path prediction, exterior lights, event flags See SAE J2735 Vehicle Based Motion Indicators Transmission state, steering wheel angle Vehicle Size Optional Data Elements Excluded Data Elements https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/us-dot-advances-deployment-connected-vehicle-technology-prevent-hundreds-thousands
  • 19.
    DOT Autonomous VehicleGuidelines https://www.transportation.gov/AV
  • 20.
    15-Point Safety Assessment •OperationalDesign Domain: How and where the HAV is supposed to function and operate; • Object and Event Detection and Response: Perception and response functionality of the HAV system; • Fall Back (Minimal Risk Condition): Response and robustness of the HAV upon system failure; • Validation Methods: Testing, validation, and verification of an HAV system; • Registration and Certification: Registration and certification to NHTSA of an HAV system; • Data Recording and Sharing: HAV system data recording for information sharing, knowledge building and for crash reconstruction purposes; • Post-Crash Behavior: Process for how an HAV should perform after a crash and how automation functions can be restored; • Privacy: Privacy considerations and protections for users; • System Safety: Engineering safety practices to support reasonable system safety; • Vehicle Cybersecurity: Approaches to guard against vehicle hacking risks; • Human Machine Interface: Approaches for communicating information to the driver, occupant and other road users; • Crashworthiness: Protection of occupants in crash situations; • Consumer Education and Training: Education and training requirements for users of HAVs; • Ethical Considerations: How vehicles are programmed to address conflict dilemmas on the road; and • Federal, State and Local Laws: How vehicles are programmed to comply with all applicable traffic laws.
  • 21.
    Division of Federaland State Responsibility Federal responsibilities include: • Setting safety standards for new motor vehicles and motor vehicle equipment; • Enforcing compliance with the safety standards; • Investigating and managing the recall and remedy of non-compliances and safety-related motor vehicle defects on a nationwide basis; • Communicating with and educating the public about motor vehicle safety issues; and • When necessary, issuing guidance to achieve national safety goals State responsibilities include: • Licensing (human) drivers and registering motor vehicles in their jurisdictions; • Enacting and enforcing traffic laws and regulations; • Conducting safety inspections, when States choose to do so; and • Regulating motor vehicle insurance and liability.
  • 22.
    Hype, Adoption, and“The Chasm”
  • 23.
  • 25.
    Truck & TransportationTechnology Trends NewVehicleorMarket Penetration 0% 15% 100% Years Since First Reports 0 5 10 20 30 Where would you place these items? Cameras Virtual Reality ESC Data standardization Tire Pressure Monitoring Biometrics AMT Radar Collision Warning Autonomous Vehicles Electric Vehicles (Nikola) Wireless ???
  • 26.
    Truck & TransportationTechnology Trends NewVehicleorMarket Penetration 0% 15% 100% Years Since First Reports 0 5 10 20 30 Recommended Maintenance Practices FutureTruck Position Paper Recommended Design Practices
  • 28.
    Cycle Disconnect • Infrastructuretakes a long time • Vehicles take a bit less • Consumer electronics take very little • We’ve talked about the disconnect with consumer electronics expectations and passenger cars for decades • We don’t have Apple CarPlay in a truck yet • Pass cars may have V2V required in 2019 • And we expect automated trucks when?
  • 29.
    Trucking’s Mission Move Freight S afely Efficiently e X peditiously Thanks!
  • 30.
  • 31.
    Photo Parts Search OEMCAD/CAE has capability to search “similar” parts Tried searching for universal joint from iPhone photo Results now are disappointing
  • 32.
  • 33.
    The Freight ShuttleSystem: A 21st Century Solution to Freight Transportation Challenges Inland Ports? Platooning/A Vehicles?
  • 39.
    Hud, Touch, Augmented,Virtual, Reality • Continental HUD at IAA • Boeing Touch • Augmented • Virtual • LangMekra, WABCO, Continental and several more • Reality • Scania, Freightliner Cascadia (show pictures)
  • 40.
  • 41.
  • 42.
    Imagine a driverwearing gloves that change color when he does something good or bad with the steering wheel
  • 43.
    How Fast willan AT (autonomous tractor) go?
  • 44.
    Which Lane IsBest? http://www.traffictechnologytoday.com/news.php?NewsID=80087
  • 45.
    The Sun IsShining
  • 46.
    Where Is NaturalGas Going?
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49.
  • 50.
    License Plates—Change After125 Years What else? Labelling on door? The rPlate houses a GPS, accelerometer, RF sensors, CAN bus access, storage and is built to withstand all weather and extreme conditions. The rPlate's 6" x 12" display is the same size as a standard state license plate and its anti-reflective screen is legible in all weather conditions.