The document discusses predictions for the future of commercial road freight transport and trucks by 2050 based on a report by the IRU and TML. It outlines three main targets for 2050: 1) lowering carbon dioxide emissions by 37-43% through more efficient diesel engines and increased electrification, 2) decreasing road fatalities to 265 deaths annually through advanced safety technologies, and 3) improving operational efficiency through technologies like platooning. While roads and trucks will still be used, trucks are predicted to have more electric and alternative fuel options, advanced driver assistance, and increased automation.

1. 74 | Baltic Transport Journal | 3-4/2017
I
n short, it’ll all be about hitting three
primary targets. The first one con-
cerns lowering carbon dioxide emis-
sions. The second pertains to increas-
ing road safety by lowering the number of
road-related fatalities. The third is improv-
ing operational efficiency; in other words –
asking oneself what to do to stay competitive
in the long-term.
Still on the road
“Theeconomicscenarioenvisagedconsid-
ers a continuous annual GDP growth of 1.1%
and an overall increase in the demand for
freight transport of around 57% by 2050,” the
IRU-TMLreport,titledCommercial vehicle of
the future. A roadmap towards fully sustain-
able truck operations,reads.Inapproximately
30 years’ time, road freight transport will be
carriedoutbyvansandlightandheavygoods
vehicles, just as it’s the case today. The paper
does include some previews on the use of
revolutionary new logistics solutions, e.g. the
use of drones for parcel delivery; however, it’s
difficult to forecast and calculate their actual
impact on CO2
emissions, road safety, and
operational efficiency.
One clear difference between the pre-
sent and the future should be a substantial
decrease in the total number of road-caused
fatalities – down to 265 in 2050 (Tab. 1);
that’s 33 times less than in 2001 when 8,845
deaths at road were noted. Such a result
could not be achieved just with the use of
legislation, but mostly thanks to technol-
ogy-led improvements (such as road traf-
fic safety management systems). To break
down the numbers, 49% of those killed on
roads will be car occupants, 17% – pedes-
trians, 13% – those riding in trucks, 7% –
cyclists, 5% – motorcyclists and light goods
vehicle occupants apiece, and 2% – moped
riders and others separately. The bulk of
the accidents will take place in rural areas
(58%), 25% – in urban districts, and 16%
– on motorways.
The future truck
First of all, propulsion. Diesel engines
have been and will continue to be the most
popular means of powering commercial
What will the truck of the future look like?
Similar but not the same
by Maciej Kniter
The International Road Transport Union (IRU) and the Transport & Mobility Leuven (TML) have written a paper
that tries to answer the question of what road freight traffic – specifically, commercial vehicles – will look in
2050. While at first glance a lot will stay the same, several key details will undergo profound transformations.
vehicles in the decades to come. Also, their
thermal efficiency will break the 50% thresh-
old in 2030 (nowadays it is 43-44%), hence
reduce harmful emissions by around 15% in
comparison to 2010 levels. Alternatives, like
lorries running on Liquefied of Compressed
Tab. 1. Background scenario for road fatalities
Year Fatalities Year Fatalities Year Fatalities Year Fatalities Year Fatalities
2001 8,845 2011 4,509 2021 2,241 2031 1,072 2041 513
2002 8,816 2012 4,297 2022 2,081 2032 996 2042 477
2003 8,280 2013 3,985 2023 1,934 2033 926 2043 443
2004 8,006 2014 3,753 2024 1,796 2034 860 2044 412
2005 7,744 2015 3,486 2025 1,669 2035 799 2045 382
2006 7,361 2016 3,238 2026 1,550 2036 742 2046 355
2007 6,940 2017 3,008 2027 1,440 2037 689 2047 330
2008 6,336 2018 2,795 2028 1,338 2038 640 2048 306
2009 5,128 2019 2,596 2029 1,243 2039 595 2049 285
2010 4,656 2020 2,412 2030 1,154 2040 553 2050 265
Source for Tab. 1. and Tab. 2.: IRU's and Transport & Mobility Leuven's Commercial Vehicle of the Future. A
roadmap towards fully sustainable truck operations
Tab. 2. Targets for harmful pollutions
Longhaul
Potential
2030
Potential
2050
Comment
Cumulative
reduction
2030
Cumulative
reduction
2050
Powertrain efficienty (diesel) 10% 15%
Includes engine, transmission,
auxiliaries, …
10.0% 15.0%
Gas vehicles 2% 4%
Methane emissions should be
minimised
11.8% 18.4%
Renewable fuels (gas & liquid) 2% 24%
IEA general target, large increase
in 2nd
generation biofuels needed;
includes biogas
13.6% 38.2%
Driver training and ADAS1
6% 8% Includes ACC2
, PCC3
, … 18.8% 43.2%
Reduced max. speed 2% 2% To 80 km/h 20.4% 62.8%
ITS & communications 1% 4% Platooning 21.2% 46.5%
Aerodynamics 6% 10%
Important contribution expected
from trailers and semi-trailers,
including solutions developed in
the TRANSFORMERS Project
25.9% 51.3%
Tyres 7.5% 12.5% Includes super singles 31.5% 57.4%
Lightweighting 0% 0%
Compensated by increased
weight from other measures
31.5% 57.4%
Pavement 3% 3%
Improved rolling resistance
(maintenance or new pavement)
33.5% 58.7%
Logistical efficienty improvements,
including digitalisation,
collaboration on reducing empty
running & improve load factors
2% 10%
Rollout of coordinated system
needed
34.8% 62.8%
More Flexibility in weights and
dimensions (including LHV4
)
3.5% 7.5%
LHVs permitted to carry out cross
border transport within the EU
37.1% 65.6%
Hybridisation (2030)/
electrification (2050)
3%3 7%
For 2050, most from full
electrification
39.0% 78.2%
1
ADAS – Advanced Driver Assistance Systems
2
ACC – Adaptive Cruise Control
3
PCC – Predictive Cruise Control
4
LHV – Longer Heavier Vehicle

2. 3-4/2017 | Baltic Transport Journal | 75
Focus
Natural Gas (LNG/CNG) as well as on bio-
or synthetic gas, will also contribute to
making air cleaner (by 4% in 2050). Other
solutions, such as biomethane or synthetic
methane, have the potential to penetrate the
market, too. However, the report’s authors
stress that the so-called renewable fuels are
not intrinsically more environmentally-
friendly than their fossil counterparts. In
fact, many of them contribute to deforesta-
tion in an effort to make room for harvest-
ing the fuel feedstock (which also competes
with edible plants for acreage).
Shifting towards trucks powered by elec-
tricity, either directly fed from the grid or
drawing energy from batteries, could be
one way around the fossil fuel “bend”. Some
estimations speak of a reduction in pollution
by 37% (vs. diesels) by 2050; as much as 43%
of long-haul road freight transports could
be powered through wires by then. Back
in 2015, Siemens’s Hasso Georg Grünjes
wrote in the article The eHighway. Electrified
road freight, “Based on the energy prices of
2012 in Germany, operating a truck with
the eHighway system for 100 thou. km will
result in savings of approx. EUR 25 thou.,
and that is before considering the potential
savings from reduced maintenance costs.”
The IRU-TML roadmap lists additional
features that will characterize the truck of
the future —tyres and driving style being
among them. Both will influence vehicle
performance in terms of road safety (e.g.
pressure monitoring systems; intelligent
wear & tear monitoring; advanced assistance
systems based on radars, infrared, cameras,
ultrasound, lidar, etc.), fuel consumption
(lower rolling resistance, eco-driving), and
noise. Also, Intelligent Transport Systems
(vehicle-to-vehicle and/or vehicle-to-infra-
structure communication, as well as under-
lying data supports for logistics optimisa-
tion) will become more prominent in the
future. They all can bring about improve-
ments in fuel efficiency, mainly through
smoothening traffic flows “by ensuring
that vehicles drive at optimal speeds and
appropriate distances.”And let's not forget
about a concept that is already being tested;
namely, truck platooning. By having several
computer-controlled trucks riding one after
another, air turbulence can be reduced by
34-39%, resulting in less fuel being burnt.
Truck platooning can increase safety, too, as
the human factor (a driver’s reaction time),
arguably the most fallible one, can be taken
out of the equation (read more about the
whole concept in BTJ 3/16’s piece The emer-
gence of truck platooning. How automation
will enable a new generation of freight trans-
port in the very near future).
Getting closer to the goal
All these bits will form the commer-
cial vehicle(s) of the future. It is believed
that the decade from 2030-2040, nick-
named the “decade of action”, will be
the main battleground (Tab. 2). By then,
infrastructure for tanking alternative
fuels will have been in place throughout
European Union (incl. road electrifica-
tion, covering even as much as 40-45%
of the long-haul network). Diesel engines
will be ready to use high proportions
of biofuels (ca. 30%), the production of
which will be “needed to power long-haul
operations off the grid and regional deliv-
eries when battery operation is impossi-
ble.” Single wide, low rolling resistances
tyres will be widely used, too. Longer
and heavier vehicles will become a fact
of life on European roads. Legislation
controlling fully autonomous vehicles
should come into force, leading to their
widespread use in 2050. This will in
turn change the truck driver profession,
shifting workers’ responsibilities towards
managing the cargo. Automation will
also alter the way trucks are designed.
All in all, in 2050 we’ll still have roads,
trucks, engines, fuels, etc., similar to those
we’ve been relying on since the end of the
19th
century, yet so different. ‚
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