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BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOGIES ARE SHAPING NEW
MOBILITY SOLUTIONS AND FUTURE CITIES
Grzegorz Ombach, PhD
11.12.2019
Global Trends
Global urbanisation
70% of world’s population will live in cities by
2050 from 50% currently
(World Health Organization 2014)
Congestion
Total global vehicles increasing from 1.1bn today
to 2.5bn by 2050
(OECD Report 2012)
Air pollution
600,000 premature deaths European Region in
2010
US$1.6 trillion is the economic cost
(Environmental Protection Agency – European Commission)
Accidents
1.35 million deaths worldwide doe to vehicle
crashes in 2016
50 million injuries worldwide do to vehicle crashes
in 2018
2 out of 3 people will be involved in a drunk crash
in their lifetime
Increasing City Influence
FUTURE SOCIETAL TRENDSRoad (11.9%)
Parking (21.8%)
Building (5.3%)
Other (61.0%)
Future of mobility
Electric
Batteries
New charging infra
New Powertrain
Connected
4G, 5G, DSRC, V2X
Cloud
New architectures
Autonomous
Sensing
Processing
New architectures
Shared
New business models
New type of vehicles
New platforms
Powered Mechanically by
Internal Combustion Engine
Controlled mechanically
Energized by petroleum
Stand-alone
Total Dependence on the Driver
Vehicle Sized for Maximum Use – People
and Cargo
Powered Electrically by Electric Motors
Controlled Electronically
Energized by Electricity and Hydrogen
“Connected”
Future DNA
Semi/Full Autonomous Driving
Vehicle Tailored to Specific Use
Current DNA
Changing Automotive DNA after 100 years
https://www.statista.com/statistics/525544/number-of-petrol-fuel-filling-stations-in-germany/
Petrol stations – model
Assumptions:
• Analysis for Germany
• 46 million cars on the roads
• 14.000km per year average
• Average Tank = 50l
• Average refuelling time = 10min
• 14.500 petrol stations (average 6 pumps = 87.000 pumps)
Calculations:
• 14.000km per year ➔ 10l per 100km, Tank 50l = 500km
➔ 28 times per year
• 28 times per year x 46 million cars =
1.288.000.000/360days/12hours/6 (every 10 min) = 49.691
cars refuelling every 10min/ 6 pumps = 8.281 petrol stations
• Overlap 1.75x more
2019 in Germany 20k public charging stations
Charging stations – model
https://below2c.org/2017/09/6-reasons-evs-coming-faster-think/
Assumptions:
• Analysis for Germany
• 4 million cars on the roads in 2025, 10 millions
EVs by 2030
• 14.000km per year average
• Average battery = 60kWh
• Average energy consumption = 20kWh/100km
Calculations:
• 14.000km per year ➔ 20kWh per 100km, Battery 60kWh = 300km ➔ 47 times per year
• Level 1/2 3-11kW (home) 30% 1.2m 20-6h
• Level 2 11-22kW (public/work) 60% 2.4m 6-3h
• Level 3+ 50-900kW (public/highway) 10% 0.4m 1-0.1h
Level 2 11kW ➔ 6h Charging time ➔ 2.4m/4x per day = 600k public/work charging stations by 2025
and 1.5m public/work charging stations by 2030
Charging stations
https://www.motoringresearch.com/car-news/germany-one-million-chargers/
In Europa we need:
4.8m public/work charging stations by 2025
9m public/work charging stations by 2030
Public infrastructure is not enough to support E-mobility
• Proven model for public/work charging – example from China Tgood
• New battery and charging technology
• Automatic driving (5G) with automatic charging
Public and work charging infrastructure – China Tgood example
http://tgood.com/int/en/
https://www.theverge.com/2019/3/5/18251690/piech-automotive-electric-
supercar-ev-battery-new-cell
https://newatlas.com/piech-4-minute-40-ev-charging/59597/
Super fast charging with new battery technology
OR (MORE LIKELY)
Induced demand for mobility as access becomes
easier for:
• Poor and Disabled
• Wishing for low cost door-to-door convenience
NEED FOR PUBLIC POLICY
• Deter zero and single occupancy rides
• Incentivize public transport in peak hour/high throughput areas
• Incentive ride sharing, disinvest in public transport in suburbs
and off-peak?
Autonomous vehicles and 5G for automatic charging
Ultrasonic
sensors
Radar
Front camera,
surround vision
Lidar
LTE
DSRC Maps and
localization LTE V2X
Support for server
computing and
route planning
(V2C)
Navigation and path
prediction
Real-time obstacles on road
features and obstacles
Direct connect using LTE-Direct
Reduced bandwidth and
improved latency
Wi-Fi based point-to-point
V2V, V2I, V2P
Computer vision and deep learning
networks
Security
and safety
Power optimized brain
for the vehicle
Fusion of information from
multiple sensors/sources
Path prediction, route
planning, control feedback
Autonomous
car
5G Fusion
5G will support fully autonomous capabilities
Cellular V2X provides a path to autonomy
Queue
warning
Forward collision warning Do Not Pass Warning (DNPW)
Blind
intersection
Cooperative
adaptive
cruise control
and
platooning
Vulnerable Road
User (VRU) alerts
Emergency
vehicle
alert
Discover parking
and charging
Traffic signal priority
and optimal speed advisory
Curve speed warning
* www.iteris.com/cvria/html/applications/applications.html
Automatic charging - Wireless charging Stationary and Dynamic
https://www.slideshare.net/GrzegorzOmbach/current-status-and-outlook-of-stationary-
and-dynamic-wireless-charging
Automatic charging – Robo charging
https://techcrunch.com/2019/08/01/an-autonomous-robot-ev-charger-is-
coming-to-san-francisco/
https://www.kuka.com/en-au/products/robotics-systems/kuka-
ladeassistent-carla_connectelectrive.com/2019/05/15/easelink-demonstrates-fully-automatic-charging/
http://tgood.com/int/en/
• Charging infrastructure - a third most crucial barrier to EV purchase, behind price and
driving range
• By 2025 only Germany requires 600k public charging points, and by 2030 about 1.5m
– this huge gap must be addressed mostly by municipalities
• New technologies like very fast-charging batteries, automatic driving/parking, and
charging will help to bridge the gap in a public infrastructure

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BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOGIES ARE SHAPING NEW MOBILITY SOLUTIONS AND FUTURE CITIES

  • 1. BREAKTHROUGH TECHNOLOGIES ARE SHAPING NEW MOBILITY SOLUTIONS AND FUTURE CITIES Grzegorz Ombach, PhD 11.12.2019
  • 2. Global Trends Global urbanisation 70% of world’s population will live in cities by 2050 from 50% currently (World Health Organization 2014) Congestion Total global vehicles increasing from 1.1bn today to 2.5bn by 2050 (OECD Report 2012) Air pollution 600,000 premature deaths European Region in 2010 US$1.6 trillion is the economic cost (Environmental Protection Agency – European Commission) Accidents 1.35 million deaths worldwide doe to vehicle crashes in 2016 50 million injuries worldwide do to vehicle crashes in 2018 2 out of 3 people will be involved in a drunk crash in their lifetime
  • 3. Increasing City Influence FUTURE SOCIETAL TRENDSRoad (11.9%) Parking (21.8%) Building (5.3%) Other (61.0%)
  • 4. Future of mobility Electric Batteries New charging infra New Powertrain Connected 4G, 5G, DSRC, V2X Cloud New architectures Autonomous Sensing Processing New architectures Shared New business models New type of vehicles New platforms
  • 5. Powered Mechanically by Internal Combustion Engine Controlled mechanically Energized by petroleum Stand-alone Total Dependence on the Driver Vehicle Sized for Maximum Use – People and Cargo Powered Electrically by Electric Motors Controlled Electronically Energized by Electricity and Hydrogen “Connected” Future DNA Semi/Full Autonomous Driving Vehicle Tailored to Specific Use Current DNA Changing Automotive DNA after 100 years
  • 6. https://www.statista.com/statistics/525544/number-of-petrol-fuel-filling-stations-in-germany/ Petrol stations – model Assumptions: • Analysis for Germany • 46 million cars on the roads • 14.000km per year average • Average Tank = 50l • Average refuelling time = 10min • 14.500 petrol stations (average 6 pumps = 87.000 pumps) Calculations: • 14.000km per year ➔ 10l per 100km, Tank 50l = 500km ➔ 28 times per year • 28 times per year x 46 million cars = 1.288.000.000/360days/12hours/6 (every 10 min) = 49.691 cars refuelling every 10min/ 6 pumps = 8.281 petrol stations • Overlap 1.75x more
  • 7. 2019 in Germany 20k public charging stations Charging stations – model https://below2c.org/2017/09/6-reasons-evs-coming-faster-think/ Assumptions: • Analysis for Germany • 4 million cars on the roads in 2025, 10 millions EVs by 2030 • 14.000km per year average • Average battery = 60kWh • Average energy consumption = 20kWh/100km Calculations: • 14.000km per year ➔ 20kWh per 100km, Battery 60kWh = 300km ➔ 47 times per year • Level 1/2 3-11kW (home) 30% 1.2m 20-6h • Level 2 11-22kW (public/work) 60% 2.4m 6-3h • Level 3+ 50-900kW (public/highway) 10% 0.4m 1-0.1h Level 2 11kW ➔ 6h Charging time ➔ 2.4m/4x per day = 600k public/work charging stations by 2025 and 1.5m public/work charging stations by 2030
  • 8. Charging stations https://www.motoringresearch.com/car-news/germany-one-million-chargers/ In Europa we need: 4.8m public/work charging stations by 2025 9m public/work charging stations by 2030
  • 9. Public infrastructure is not enough to support E-mobility • Proven model for public/work charging – example from China Tgood • New battery and charging technology • Automatic driving (5G) with automatic charging
  • 10. Public and work charging infrastructure – China Tgood example http://tgood.com/int/en/
  • 12. OR (MORE LIKELY) Induced demand for mobility as access becomes easier for: • Poor and Disabled • Wishing for low cost door-to-door convenience NEED FOR PUBLIC POLICY • Deter zero and single occupancy rides • Incentivize public transport in peak hour/high throughput areas • Incentive ride sharing, disinvest in public transport in suburbs and off-peak? Autonomous vehicles and 5G for automatic charging
  • 13. Ultrasonic sensors Radar Front camera, surround vision Lidar LTE DSRC Maps and localization LTE V2X Support for server computing and route planning (V2C) Navigation and path prediction Real-time obstacles on road features and obstacles Direct connect using LTE-Direct Reduced bandwidth and improved latency Wi-Fi based point-to-point V2V, V2I, V2P Computer vision and deep learning networks Security and safety Power optimized brain for the vehicle Fusion of information from multiple sensors/sources Path prediction, route planning, control feedback Autonomous car 5G Fusion 5G will support fully autonomous capabilities
  • 14. Cellular V2X provides a path to autonomy Queue warning Forward collision warning Do Not Pass Warning (DNPW) Blind intersection Cooperative adaptive cruise control and platooning Vulnerable Road User (VRU) alerts Emergency vehicle alert Discover parking and charging Traffic signal priority and optimal speed advisory Curve speed warning * www.iteris.com/cvria/html/applications/applications.html
  • 15. Automatic charging - Wireless charging Stationary and Dynamic https://www.slideshare.net/GrzegorzOmbach/current-status-and-outlook-of-stationary- and-dynamic-wireless-charging
  • 16. Automatic charging – Robo charging https://techcrunch.com/2019/08/01/an-autonomous-robot-ev-charger-is- coming-to-san-francisco/ https://www.kuka.com/en-au/products/robotics-systems/kuka- ladeassistent-carla_connectelectrive.com/2019/05/15/easelink-demonstrates-fully-automatic-charging/ http://tgood.com/int/en/
  • 17. • Charging infrastructure - a third most crucial barrier to EV purchase, behind price and driving range • By 2025 only Germany requires 600k public charging points, and by 2030 about 1.5m – this huge gap must be addressed mostly by municipalities • New technologies like very fast-charging batteries, automatic driving/parking, and charging will help to bridge the gap in a public infrastructure