The document summarizes a presentation given to the AFCOM Melbourne Chapter in February 2012 titled "Through the Looking Glass 2012." It discusses trends in technology from 2012 to 2017 and their impact on data centers. Key points include: 1) CPUs were becoming faster, moving to more cores and lower power designs. Server density was increasing but also heat. 2) Storage trends included declining SSD prices, larger hard drives, and improvements in deduplication and tape storage. 3) Networking was shifting to 10 Gigabit and converged networks, but duplicate hardware would be needed for 5 years during the transition. 4) Emerging technologies like cloud, big data appliances, and the "Internet of

1. AFCOM February 2012
Melbourne Chapter Meeting
AECOM 80 Collins St

2. Through the looking Glass 2012 :
How impressed would you be
with this data centre :
l 7000 servers
l 750 Sq Metres build out
l 34,000 Kw hours
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+

3. Through the looking Glass 2012 : Growth
7000 servers
750 Sq Metres build out
34,000 Kw hours
It is not a Data centre but one days growth
worldwide in data centres.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+

4. Through the looking Glass 2012
This presentation will try to correlate
changes to Technology and society and
how they will impact Data centres.
In order to look at few years we move
from Galileo to Nostradamus
Blue text mean consequence to DC
The base bar indicates :
 the trend appearing
 The impact to DCs
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+

5. Through the looking Glass 2012 :Technology
CPUs Trend Faster and more cores !
Processing Units 32nm ->28nm->22nm
 CPUs Central Processing Unit –Multicore 6-8
 GPUs General Processing Unit–Graphics cards
 APUs Accelerated Processing unit
Moore’s Law: CPUs will double their speed every 18 months
Multicore mean less power per processor but more
heat per server Heat concentration
Server are more powerful, Virtualisation is easier
May need more Comms !
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+

6. Through the looking Glass 2012 :Technology
CPUs The Giant killers
Low Power Processing Units:
 Global Foundries , ARM , TSMC ,VIA ,Intel ATOM
VIA Processors :
 Eden ULV500 MHz 1Watt
 Eden ULV1000 MHz 3.5W
 Eden ULV1500 MHz 7.5 W
HP Project moonshot 4 RU chassis with 288 servers
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+

7. Through the looking Glass 2012 :Technology
CPUs The Giant killers
Today Blade rack Maximum 64 servers now 2880
servers per rack with potential less power . Higher
density without the heat or power needs
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+

8. Through the looking Glass 2012 :Technology
Storage
SSDs Expect SSD to $1 Per Gig in 2012
SSD take up accelerating due to Thailand flood in
2011 (closing 80% of Hard disk market ) Watch: Hybrid SSD
2012 :2 Terabyte SATA drive to be replaced by 3 & 4 Tb drives
Archive drive to use sub 8 watts
2014 De-Duplication on Tape to arrive
2012-4 New tape capacities will fight of Virtual Tape Libraries VTLS
VTL will win out in 2015 due to de-Duplication technology when the
have Tiered functionality married with MAID & SSDs
Improvement in Transformers will reduce heat foot print.
Density increase but SDD keep power requirement high .
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+

9. Through the looking Glass 2012 :Technology
Storage
EBay brought 100Tb of SSD and reduced
power by 75% and increase speed by 500%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+

10. Through the looking Glass 2012
:Technology
Communications
Companies will need to move to 10Gig Ethernet or Fibre to avoid
hardware costs
Converged Networks with FCOE is the next big thing 2012 will see
economics balance tipping point in 2013 to 10 Gig
Fibre and Ethernet will continue to fight it out with Fibre winning in 2015
due to cost driving down and cheaper raw materials ( Non-volatile
supply) and lower supporting infrastructure.
Cloud will increase large connection to the internet and increase coms
equipment by up to 20%
Trend : HP, DELL, IBM , have all brought Coms companies
While converged networks rollout expect Duplicate hardware for
up to 5 years This is and area that will start causing pain expect
heat and power to double till you have 40G networks bedded
down.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+

11. Through the looking Glass 2012
:Technology
Communications
Gartner estimates that by 2014,
network planners should expect
more than 80% of traffic in the data
center network to be between
servers. It also said that by the end
of next year, half the enterprise
applications that are used will be
virtualized, and the amount of
bandwidth in the rack itself is likely
to grow by ten times.
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+

12. Through the looking Glass 2012
:Technology
Appliances & Big Data
Emergence of off the shelf systems :
iDataplex,Exadata,etc
Big data machines Netezza ,Teradata EDA
186 Petabytes
Loadbalancers , WAN accelerator inside
DCs, IDS ,
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+

13. Through the looking Glass 2012 :Technology
Things to watch
 Nicira unveiling a virtualisation platform
that promises to do for networks what
VMware did for servers and computing.
 Project moonshot
 ARM Processors
 Crowd sources
 Ubiquitous computing
 The Internet Of Things
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+

14. Through the looking Glass 2012 :
Society
Smartphone vendors shipped 488 million
devices in 2011, overtaking PC shipments
for the first time, according to analyst firm Canalys.
Mobile data is overtaking fixed line: The numbers show mobile wireless broadband
connections, excluding mobile handsets, accounted for 44 per cent of all internet
connections, while DSL connections accounted for 41 per cent.
The number of internet subscribers rose by 4.4 per cent to 10.9 million in the half year
to June 2011, up from 10.4 million in December 2010. ABS
Mobile wireless access was the fastest
growing technology, rising from 4.2 million in
December 2010 to 4.8 million in June 2011
www.nab.com.au
vs m.nab.com.au
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017+

15. References :
AFCOM Website :www.afcom.com
AFCOM Magazine “Data Center
Management” Nov-Dec 2011
AFCOM Magazine “Data Center
Management” Jan-Feb 2012
Aust Personal Computer Feb 2012
www.dataCentredynamics.com

16. Questions & Contact
Q&A ???
glenn.allan@nab.com.au
Linked In
Linked in Group :
“AFCOM Melbourne Chapter”