Alessandro Valenza, an expert in political science with over 15 years of experience, discusses the theory of change (ToC) and its components, including causal pathways and identifying goals, interventions, and indicators. The document contrasts ToC with logical frameworks, emphasizing ToC's focus on broader change and external factors influencing outcomes. It highlights the importance of assumptions and rationale in developing effective strategies for change.

1. Theory of change
Alessandro Valenza holds a Master Degree in Political Science.
He is the founder and partner of t33 (www.t33.it ). He has more
than 15 years of professional experience in public policy analysis
and evaluation research working for different European
Institutions. He lectures in several Italian universities.
There is nothing wrong with change,
if it is in the right direction.
(W. Churchill)

2. Contents of the following Skill Pill
! The casual pathway
! TOC and Logic framework

3. The Causal Pathway
! Identifying ULTIMATE goal: what has to change in relation to the
needs?
! Backwards mapping and connecting outcomes
! Identifying assumptions + pre-condition
! Identifying Interventions
! Developing indicators
UTLIMATE GOAL OUTCOMES ASSUMPTIONS INTERVENTIONS INDICATORS
INTERNAL Mechanisms
(including the
Administrative Culture)
Needs: what we
want to change
Assumptions are beliefs about
conditions that you think already exist
and are not problematic.
Rationale / narrative
The term “rationale” is the
explanation of why certain
conditions are necessary and
sufficient for the strategies
and interventions to work.

4. Theory of change VS Logical Framework
Logical
Frameworks
Theory of Change
Usually describe
the details of
specific projects
Explains a broader arc of
change
Focuses on
program
components
Relationships and
interdependences between
outcomes and the various
program elements
TOC focuses on
what is
external
to the
intervention in
term of factors
and outcomes
TOC can be complementary to LF and strengthen design, evaluation and
organizational learning.