Presentation at Agua2009, November 2009 in Cali, Colombia. Simon Cook

1. The global water and food crisis
Global picture of water and development
Simon Cook, Tassilo Tiemann & Myles Fisher

2. Outline
• Crisis…
• …behind every crisis is a situation
– more people, more demand, same resources
• The detail in ten river basins
– 4 water related reasons for poverty
• Some impacts of climate change (very brief)
• Conclusions

3. Crisis
INDIA NEWS CTOBER 1, 2009
India's Drought Worst Since 1972

4. India: Drought affects 100s of millons

5. India: Floods displace a million

6. Africa: Drought hits region

7. Southern Africa:
Floods (again)

9. Yellow River:
China’s sorrow

10. Mekong: Conflict over hydropower

11. Ganges: 500 million facing disaster

12. Brazil: Conflict over water use

13. Venezuela: Uncertain supply

14. Andes: Conflict , shrinking supply

15. Behind every crisis is a Situation

16. Population increasing

17. Food & water demand growing
• Food crisis • Water crisis

18. …Water availability diminishing
Reducing per capita availability of water
‘000 m3
16
14 Africa
12
10
8 World
6 Asia
4
2 MENA
0
1960 1990 2025

19. Details from river basins

20. Conditions of water and food systems analyzed in 10 basins
Niger

21. Research plan
Water availability +Water use
How much water flows How well is water used?
through basins? Water productivity of crops,
Who uses it? livestock, fish…(kg/m3
Institutions
(who supports / controls /obstructs improvement?
What are the impacts on livelihoods?
How are water, food and poverty
linked?
Potential interventions
Change processes

22. Livelihoods influenced by 4 water-related factors
1. Availability / Scarcity
How much water is there?
2. Access
Who gets water?
How is it shared?
3. Hazard:
Are people hit by water-related problems?
Floods, droughts, disease
4. Use and abuse
How well do people convert water into benefit?
Do they damage the resource?

23. 1 Water scarcity
• More people = greater
scarcity per capita
• Pressure points emerging
– Indus
– Yellow
– Limpopo
• But no simple relationship
between availability and
poverty

24. Water availability is one poverty factor…of many
Drought
Poor
Poverty education
Access to
credit
From Sao Francisco
Torres et al., 2008

25. Conclusions about scarcity:
Scarcity: less influential than
we thought
Per capita income vs. water
GNI vs Water
availability
50,000
40,000
GNI ($/cap PPP)
30,000
20,000
10,000
0 Size of bubble proportional to agriculture contribution to GDP
-500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
-10,000
World Bank, 2008
3
Water availability (m /cap)

26. 2 Access to water
Local to international
% of population with
access to safe drinking water.
(From Gleick, 2001)

27. Who uses the water?
M
M eko ng
1,19 5 b cm
Ganges
1,167 bcm
Sa o Fr a nc i s c o
G
622 bcm
SF
Nile
Ni
2,042 bcm
Capacity limit
1.0
ET Ganges
(normalised) Sao Francisco
Lim popo
229 bcm
L Fish
0.5 Mekong
Volta
Crops
Nile
Limpopo
Yellow River
Livestock
Karkeh Indus
Yellow
YR
384 bcm
0.0 Andean
0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00
K ar kheh
K
2 1, 4 0 2 mcm
Net runoff Rainfall
Rainfed cropping
Grass (normalised)
Woodland / other
Irrigation

28. Who uses the
water?

29. How people develop from water use:
Globally, irrigation supports dense populations….
Indus Ganges
Water use (mcm) Water use (m cm)
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000
Irrigated
Irrigated
Woodland +
Woodland +
Grass
Grass
Rainfed
Rainfed
400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0
200 150 100 50 0
population (millions)
population (millions)
Mekong
Yellow
Water use (mcm) Water use (mcm )
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000
Irrigated Irrigated
Woodland + Woodland +
Grass Grass
Rainfed Rainfed
200 150 100 50 0
population (millions) 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
population (m illions)
Relative values better than absolutes

30. …but not in Africa (or Latin America)
Volta Lim popo
Water use (m cm ) Water use (m cm)
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 0 50,000 100,000 150,000
Irrigated
Woodland +
Grass
Rainfed
20 15 10 5 0 20 15 10 5 0
population (m illions) population (millions)
Sao Francisco Nile
Water use (m cm ) Water use (mcm)
0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000
Irrigated
Woodland +
Grass
Rainfed
20 15 10 5 0 200 150 100 50 0
population (m illions) population (millions)

31. Sao Francisco basin
2 worlds..haves and have-nots

32. Limpopo
These farmers have access to water

33. These farmers do not …

34. Ganges
• Uncontrolled groundwater use
GW pumps in Indus-
Ganges basin
Photos: Fred Pearce
Map: Sharma et al, 2009

36. Nile
• Egypt needs every
drop [from Ethiopia]

39. Mekong In most places this flood would be a
problem…..

40. To these people, flood = fish

41. Conclusions about access:
• Infrastructure still lacking in many regions: a
service problem
• Widespread problems of water-sharing: A
resource problem
– local to international scale
• Governance a widespread and difficult issue
– Balancing demands of water - land - development
– Balancing demands of many groups of people

42. 3 Water-related hazards
• Drought
• Flood
• Disease

43. Flood, drought: Global scale hazards

44. Disease: Malaria Endemicity: 2007
Volta Malaria

45. Conclusions about water-related hazards
• Hazards hit the
poor hardest
• Hazards prevent
critical investment
to get out of
poverty

46. 4 Water use & abuse
– Water productivity must improve to meet demand

47. Water productivity:
In some places responding to demand
0.800
3
Water productivity, kg/m
VN, Mekong Delta
0.600 Vietnam
VN Central
Highlands
0.400
Laos
Cambodia
NE Thailand
0.200
0.000
1990 1995 2000 2005
Year Mac Kirby, 2007
Rice

48. In some places very high
Yellow River water productivity(irrigated)
48
Ringler & Ximing 2009

49. Wprod (rainfed)_
49
Ringler & Ximing 2009

50. In most places, water productivity is
VERY low: Africa, Latin America
• Crop water productivity
generally very low (<10% of
potential)
• Reflects lower pressure on
land resources
• Livestock, fish important
• Huge potential for
improvement

51. Conclusions about water productivity
• Generally very low
– Major potential for Wpr (estimated potential)
improvement
• Few data on total YR
IGB
benefits and costs
Mekong
– Multiple uses Nile
Limpopo
Volta Niger
– Net productivity

52. Impact of Climate Change
• On scarcity
– Some basins drier, others wetter
– Rainfall patterns changing
• On access (conflict)
– Uncertainty makes agreement more difficult
• Demand for green power
• Flow projections uncertain
• On hazard
– Unprecedented events are unpredictable
• On use
– Investment of co-factors more difficult
Uncertainty brings MAJOR problems

53. Final thoughts
• The water and food crisis is really a development crisis
• How does water constrain development?
• How does development pressurise water resources?
Agriculture vs GNI
50,000
Gross National Income ($/capita)
40,000
30,000 What factors are preventing people
moving “up the slide”?
20,000
10,000
0
-10 0 10 20 30 40 50
-10,000
Agricultural contribution to GDP (% )

54. Basins differ in their position on a development trajectory
Niger
Volta
% Contribution of agriculture to GDP
Limpopo
IGB Nile
Mekong YR
Sao Karkheh
Francisco Andes
World Bank, 2007
% Rural poor

55. Niger
Agriculture as % of GDP
Agricultural
Volta
Nile
IGB
Limpopo
Transitional
Mekong
Karkheh Yellow
Industrial Andes
Sao Fran
Rural poverty

56. …so the major issues vary between basins
Niger
Agriculture only
Agriculture as % of GDP
Extreme poverty
Low WR development (no irrigation)
Volta
Complex LLH support
(Livestock and fish may dominate)
Nile
IGB
Some sectors Limpopo
moving
Pressure on others
Agriculture ‘left behind?’
Mekong
Increased vulnerability
Karkheh Yellow
Markets very active
Rural poor in pockets
Andes
Improved potential for
Sao Fran
ecosystem services
Rural poverty

57. Conclusions
• There is a water and food threat
– Will cause more crises if not responded to
• Some clearly solvable needs
– Better sharing and infrastructure
– Hazard management
– Improved eco-efficiency (water productivity)
• Solutions depend on political processes
– Resource sharing
– Use valuation
– Assessment under uncertainty

58. Muchas gracias por su amable atencion