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The Future of Displays

This document discusses when new types of displays will become economically feasible and begin to diffuse. It notes that liquid crystal displays (LCDs) are becoming more affordable due to increases in the size of LCD substrates, which allows production costs to decrease. Specifically, the size of LCD substrates has been growing by a factor of 1.8 every 3 years. Organic light-emitting diode (OLED) displays are also discussed as a promising technology, though they currently have higher costs than LCDs. Factors like falling production costs as substrate sizes increase and the use of printing technologies could help OLED displays become more affordable over time.

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WHEN WILL NEW TYPES OF DISPLAYS BECOME ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE AND THUS BEGIN TO DIFFUSE? 5TH SESSION OF MT5009 A/Prof Jeffrey Funk Division of Engineering and Technology Management National University of Singapore For information on other technologies, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
What is the future of displays? How big will these displays be? And how will we interact with them?
Will We Use Our Hands i.e., Gesture Interfaces? Or something else? (session 8)
How About Our Homes? What will they be Like?
Another View of Future Displays  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZkHpNnXLB0  Can you write down all the applications that you see
What’s Driving the Emergence of these New Applications?  Falling cost of LCD displays  Increasing performance of LCD displays (e.g., 3D displays)  Rising performance and falling cost of OLED displays  New forms of displays such as e-ink and holograms  Session 8 discusses touch displays as part of human- computer interfaces  Many improvements are being made here and will impact on smart phones, tablet computers, and other forms of mobile devices
Session Technology 1 Objectives and overview of course 2 How/when do new technologies become economically feasible? 3 Two types of improvements: 1) Creating materials that better exploit physical phenomena; 2) Geometrical scaling 4 Semiconductors, ICs, electronic systems 5 Sensors, MEMS and the Internet of Things 6 Bio-electronics, Wearable Computing, Health Care, DNA Sequencers 7 Lighting, Lasers, and Displays 8 Roll-to Roll Printing, Human-Computer Interfaces 9 Information Technology and Land Transportation 10 Nano-technology and Superconductivity This is Seventh Session of MT5009
Some of the applications in the Videos  Photovoltaic glass, Touch screen displays on closets, in cars, phones, tablets, automobile windows, tables, walls (classrooms), 3D displays, in middle of air, in forest, augmented reality  PV glass, mirror, refrigerator, counter table, autos (GPS), MRT maps, retail clothing, eBook readers
Outline  Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs)  Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates (and production equipment)  3D LCD displays  Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays  Electronic paper  Holographic displays
Composition of LCD Panels http://www.ercservice.com/learning/what-is-tft-lcd.html
Another Breakdown of LCD TV CCFL Backlit LCD TV CCFL Backlight Diffusers To ensure a uniform brightness across panel Polarizer To ensure that the image produced is aligned correctly LCD Panel An LCD panel is made up of millions of pixels filled with liquid crystals arranged in grid, which open and shut to let the backlight through and create images Antiglare Coating Provides a mirror-like finish, making the backlight appear brighter Display Screen CCFL (cold cathode fluorescent light) (78.6 mm) backlight has been replaced with white- light LEDs (29.9 mm)
“LED Television”  Not really an LED television  An LCD television that is backlit by white LEDs  Lower energy costs, higher contrast, variety of advantages  But can’t make television only from LEDs because different color LEDs require different materials and those materials cannot be placed on the same substrate (at least currently)
Other Improvements in LCD Televisions Source: AUOSource: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013
Outline  Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs)  Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates  3D LCD displays  Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays  Electronic Paper  Holographic displays
 Nishimura’s Law:  The size of LCD substrate grows by a factor of 1.8 every 3 years, doubles every 3.6 years (large panels are cut into appropriate sizes for electronic products)  Less than half the time for IC wafers to double in size (7.5 years)  Odawara’s Law:  Costs fall by 22-23% for doubling in cumulative production  Kichihara’s Law: every three years  Power consumption decreases by 44%  Panel thickness and weight are reduced by one-third  Number of bits needed per screen increases fourfold Display Panel Trends – towards larger and cheaper panels Source: http://metaverseroadmap.org/inputs.html, US Display Consortium (USDC)
http://www.economist.com/node/21543215 Source: Television Making: Cracking Up, Economist, January 21st, 2012, p. 66
Increases in Scale of LCD Substrates (and also IC Wafers, Solar Substrates)  Equipment costs per area of output fall as size of equipment is increased, similar to chemical plants  For chemical plants  Cost is function of surface area (or radius squared)  Output is function of volume (radius cubed)  Thus, costs increase by 2/3 for each doubling of equipment capacity  For LCD Substrates, IC Wafers, and Solar Substrates  Processing, transfer, and setup time (inverse of output) fall as area of substrate increases since entire area can be processed, transferred, and setup together
Another Benefit from Large Panels is Smaller Edge Effects Panel Equipment Effect Effects: the equipment must be much wider than panel to achieve uniformity Ratio of equipment to panel width falls as the size of the panel is increased
Increases in LCD Substrate Size Source: www.lcd-tv-reviews.com/pages/fabricating_tft_lcd.php
Scale of photolithographic aligners (upper left), sputtering equipment (top right), and mirrors for aligners (lower left) for LCD equipment Source: http://www.canon.com/technology/ canon_tech/explanation/fpd.html
http://www.electroiq.com/articles/sst/print/volume-50/issue-2/features/cover-article/scaling-and-complexity-drive- lcd-yield-strategies.html
 We can also see the falling cost of LCDs in the falling price of LCD TVs, albeit some of the cost reductions are coming from the falling costs of ICs
Outline  Cathode Ray Tube  Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs)  Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates  3D LCD displays  Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays  Electronic Paper  Holographic displays
Time-Sequential 3D with active 3D Glasses (common in movies) Sources for these slides: Adapted from published paper in Technology and Society by Ng Pei Sin and myself
Improvements in Frame-Rate are Occurring 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1970s 1995 2008 2010 CRT LCD OLED/Plasma  Increased frame-rate of content approaches Critical Flicker Fusion point (where higher frame rate has no perceived benefit) – 60Hz.  Increase frame rate gives smoother, flicker-free motion, especially in high-action videos  Increased Frame-rate of Display  Reaches 120Hz; surpasses critical flicker fusion point  Surplus enables implementation of Time-sequential 3D without compromising improved frame rate of content  Improved LCD frame-rate due to improvement in Liquid Crystal structure, reduced cell-gap, and improved methods to shorten liquid crystal response time 120Hz - Minimum screen frame-rate for ‘flicker-free’ Time-sequential 3D Frameperseconds(Hz) Display Frame-Rate
Improvements in Frame Rate Increase the Economic Feasibility of Time Sequential 3D  Improvement in Liquid Crystal response time enable:  High frame-rate in LCD display and in active 3D glasses  Economical  Estimated cost of adding 3D to LCD display range from 10% to 30% the cost of panel  Falling costs from larger substrate size can offset these higher costs  But glasses are a big disadvantage……….
Auto-Stereoscopic Displays Do Not Require Special 3D Glasses  Panel pixels are divided into two groups  one for left-eye images  another for right-eye images  A filter element is used to focus each pixel into a viewing zone  In order to view television from different places in the room, multiple viewing zones are needed
 Improvements in photolithographic equipment enable increases in pixel density  lags resolution in ICs by many years  Sometimes called Kitahara’s Law, improvements of about 4 times occur every 3 years  These increases in pixel density  Enable high definition television  But will exceed the resolution of our eyes  Thus, these increases can be used to assign different pixels  to right and left eye and  to different “viewing” zones Increases in Pixel Density, i.e., Resolution
 At least128 million pixels/sq inch are needed  8.3 million pixels needed for high-definition TV  at least eight viewing zones needed to accommodate head movements  each viewing zone needs two sets of pixels  8.3 x 8 x 2 = 128  Best pixel density at Consumer Electronics Show in 2011 was 8.3 million pixels/sq inch  If pixel density continues to increase four-times every three years, technical feasibility in 2017  As for economic feasibility, this depends on incremental cost of the higher densities. If the incremental cost is small, they will probably become economically feasible before 2020. Auto-Stereoscopic Displays
But not much diffusion  Not enough content?  Not enough interest in 3D?  One question is whether such content can be easily created
 Standardization and digitalization ease handling, storing and presentation of 3D videos  Standardization reduces complexity and cost of having to produce 3D contents for multiple competing formats  Digital 3D formats build from MPEG-4 video compression with Multiview Video Coding (MVC) encoding “Historical Progression of Media”, From: Three-Dimensional Television: Capture, transmission, Display. By Haldun M. Ozaktas, Levent Onural Other Factors Should Enable New Content: Standardization and Digitization of Video
Other Factors Should Enable Better Content: Better graphic processors http://www.behardware.com/articles/659-1/nvidia-cuda-preview.html “NVIDIA® TESLA® GPU COMPUTING”, Nvidia, 2010, http://www.nvidia.com/docs/IO/43395/tesla-brochure-12-lr.pdf  Improved Graphics processing unit (GPU) enables:  More MPEG4 video compression  Rendering of more realistic computer animation (more polygon count and motion control points)  Rendering of 3D models for stereoscopic video for 3D displays  Enable realistic stereoscopic computer animation good enough for cinema screens presentation, increasing contents in 3D
Outline  Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs)  Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates  3D LCD displays  Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays  Electronic Paper  Holographic displays
 OLED displays  http://www.wsj.com/articles/lg-display-forges- ahead-on-oled-tv-technology-1428701581
OLEDs have Some Advantages over LCDs and their Sales are Growing  Made of organic (Carbon based) materials that emit light when electricity runs through them  Fewer layers make them thinner, potentially cheaper  Flexibility comes from organic materials and thinness  Multiple colors can be roll printed onto a substrate, making them potentially cheaper than that of LCDs  Scaling up roll-to roll printing will also reduce costs
Other Advantages of OLEDs: Response Time, Viewing Angle, Grey Scale Units AMOLED CCFL LED Edge LED Full Difference Luminance cd/m2 None Brightness cd/m2 Power Contrast Ratio (CR)  1000:1 5000:1 6M:1 Dark Images Ambient Contrast Ratio @ 125 Lux ~1000:1 >2,000:1 >2,000:1 >2,000:1 High Lux Black Levels cd/m2 <0.001 0.8 0.1 0.05 Dark Images Viewing Angles CR 100% 3D Response Time ms 0.001 5 3 3 Fast Moving Gray Scale Performance All Gray Scales Movies Frame Rate Hz None 42" Power Consumption W 30 ~120 ~80 ~60 15 Lifetime hrs to 1/2 luminance 50K to 100K ~60K ~70K ~70K Initial LCD Differential Aging Yes Strength Image Sticking Some Strength Form Factor mm 2 5 3 5 Thinner >240 Poor Lower Gray Scales Minor None TFT LCD Same OLED ~1.5X Brighter 20:1 Source: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013
Fewer Layers with OLEDs than with LCDs LCD  Complex structure  Passes through light and thus requires separate light source and color filters OLED  Simple structure  Makes its own light
Many of them are Flexible
What About a Wrist Display? Can it conform to your wrist using right materials? Much better than a smart watch
Flexibility Comes from New Materials (e.g., organic ones) and Thinner Ones Moving to polymers requires low permeation rates, higher transparencies, and low cost.
OLEDs Still Lag LEDs in Efficiency Subsequent improvements have occurred (see slides on lighting)
• Average life span of 30,000 hours, half of LCD TVs 60,000 hours • a few molecules of oxygen or moisture can kill display so need better encapsulation (ink jet printing of coating?) • OLED displays are given blue tint to offset faster degradation of blue • Adding touch is also problem because indium tin oxide is brittle and will crack in touch display; can carbon nano-tubes solve this problem? Source: http://www.differencebetween.info/node/707 http://www.technologyreview.com/news/529991/bendable- displays-are-finally-headed-to-market/ Another Problem for OLEDs in TVs is Lifespan Source: http://www.hdtvinfo.eu/news/hdtv-articles/oled-tv- estimated-lifespan-shorter-then-expected.html (2008 data)
Another Problem is High Price/Cost, but falling 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ASP(US$) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% PricePremium 32" 1080p CCFL 32" 1080 LED Edge 32" 1080 LED Back 32" OLED 1920 x 1080 OLED Premium vs. Edge OLED Premium vs. Back Source: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013
Costs Fall as Substrate Sizes get Bigger 2007 730x920 2011 Source: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013
New Techniques Required to Scale Process  Making finely patterned sub- pixels with small molecule material requires use of vacuum thermal evaporation using a fine metal mask  Size limits are defined the sagging of the mask  To achieve > 200 ppi, AMOLEDs utilize Pentile technology, which reduces pixel size from 3 sub- pixels to 2 sub-pixels/pixel. To scale beyond ½ 4th Gen, VTE must be changed from positioning the substrate horizontally to holding vertically as implemented by Tokki, Ulvac, Sunic and AMAT  New approaches include the use of CNT by Unidym and nanowires by Cambrios Source: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013
Other Patterning Options Being Tried  Alternative approaches include:  Polymers and small molecule in solution which can be printed  Laser induced thermal imaging (LITI) as developed by 3M and SMD  Eliminating patterning by using white material with a color filter  The most likely for the Gen 5.5 is vertically held substrates  Beyond Gen 5.5 some form of printing will be required  Ink Jet – Panasonic, Epson  Slot – DuPont  Roll to roll process – VTT, Fraunhofer Source: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013
Many Believe Roll-to Roll Printing will Lead to Dramatically Lower Costs Vacuum deposition of metals, dielectrics, & semiconductors 5μ Multiple mask levels imprinted as single 3D structure Patterning completed w/ wet & dry processes deposition imprint etch deposit spin resist align/expose develop strip/clean etch deposit etchimprint etch mask Conventional Photo-Lithography SAIL http://www.hpl.hp.com/techreports/2011/HPL-2011-152.pdf (Roll printing)
A Roll of Rolled OLEDs http://deviceguru.com/euro-project-slashes-flexible-display-costs/ Konica is constructing a flexible OLED lighting R2R fab with a monthly capacity of 1 million panels. Production will start in fall of 2014 http://www.oled-info.com/tags/technical- research/frontplane/roll-roll
LG’s OLED TV Business  Claims it made big breakthrough in hi-volume production of large screen OLED TVs  Costs dropped from $25,000 USD in 2013 to $15,000 in July 2015 on 55” TVs  Planning on introducing transparent, foldable, and curved screens  Expects that within 5 years, 40% of world’s smartphones will have flexbile OLED displays  But not clear if profits will cover LG’s $3 Billion dollar investment in OLEDs Plucky Contender, Economist, July 4, 2015, p. 56
Outline  Cathode Ray Tube  Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs)  Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates  3D LCD displays  Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays  Electronic Paper  Holographic displays
LCD + Full color - Harder on the eyes + Can display video (movies) - Takes more power (battery doesn’t last as long) + Backlit, so you can read in the dark - Hard to read outdoors or in bright sunlight Early e-Ink - Black & white + Easy on the eyes; like paper - Can’t display full video + Takes very little power (battery lasts longer) - Can’t be read in the dark (like a regular book) + Easy to read outdoors, the more light the better + Very crisp and sharp E-Ink has advantages for reading
That Become Obvious When You Look at this Picture
Improvements in E-ink Electrophoretic Displays Color is now available E Ink Vizplex 1 E Ink Vizplex 2 E Ink Pearl E Ink Triton E Ink Spectra E Ink Carta Announce ment Year 2006 2007 2010 2010 2013 2013 Cost $70 (estimated ) Based on Sory prs 500: $350 $60 (Estimated ) Based on Sony prs 505: $300 $30.5 (2011) Sony prs T1: $150 $26 Based on Sory pr-t2: $130 Color/ Greyscale 4-level gray scale 8 level gray scale 16 levels of gray 16 shades of gray, 4096 colors 2-bit (B/W/R) Contrast 7:1 10:1 10:1 15:1 15:1 Refresh Rate • 1200ms • 500ms for 1 bit mode • 740ms for grayscale • 260 ms for 1- bit mode • 600 ms for grayscale • 120 ms for 1 bit mode • 120ms - 980ms, • 120 ms Resolution •170 dpi 600 × 800 •170 dpi • 600 × 800 •Up to 300 dpi 600x800 •200 dpi •768x1024 •(212 ppi) 1024 x 758 •> 300 dpi •768x102 4
And Costs of Color Displays are Falling 7” diagonal display has 0.15 cm2 area $426 per m2, much less than LCD
Will this make Wall Displays Economically Feasible?
Another option for a Smart Watch? The CST-01, the thinnest watch in the world, is less than 1mm thick and weighs less than 5 pennies.
Outline  Cathode Ray Tube  Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs)  Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates  3D LCD displays  Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays  Electronic Paper  Holographic displays
Holographic Systems  Present a real 3D image  LCD-based 3D systems present an “illusion” of three dimensions  Time-Sequential 3D with active 3D Glasses  Auto-Stereoscopic Displays  Holographic Systems present a real 3D image and thus one that can be more aesthetically appealing
Hologram in Star Wars
A Better Hologram in Total Recall
How About a Hologram for a Phone Key Pad? If it is a Hologram?
A Little Different – But How about Projecting a Display onto ones Hand? This can be done with a Pico-Projector in a Samsung Phone http://www.engadget.com/2010/02/15/samsung-beam-halo-hands-on/
This was done in Total Recall
Back to Holograms……..
Source: MT5009 group in 2011
Looking at Light Source and Holographic Media in more Detail: The Film/Media Records both the Reference and Object Beams http://www.holostar.com/Frame1.html
Source: MT5009 group in 2011
Source: MT5009 group in 2011
 When might such a system become technically and economically feasible for some application and some set of users?
Conclusions and Relevant Questions for Your Projects (1)  New displays continue to emerge and experience improvements  New materials that better exploit the relevant physical phenomena (e.g., materials for OLEDs that have higher luminosity per Watt or longer lifetime)  Falling costs from increases in the scale of substrates and production equipment  Improvements in components for holographic displays  Improvements in frame rate and pixel density for 3D displays
Conclusions and Relevant Questions for Your Projects (2)  How many further improvements are likely to occur?  When will their costs become low enough or performance high enough to be economical for specific applications?  Can we identify those applications, the order in which they will become economical, and the specific needs of each application?  What about higher-level systems; can we identify ones that might become economically feasible due to improvements in displays and other “components”?  What kinds of analyses can help us answer these questions?

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Irrational Exuberance: A Tech Crash is Coming
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The Future of Displays

  • 1.
    WHEN WILL NEWTYPES OF DISPLAYS BECOME ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE AND THUS BEGIN TO DIFFUSE? 5TH SESSION OF MT5009 A/Prof Jeffrey Funk Division of Engineering and Technology Management National University of Singapore For information on other technologies, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
  • 2.
    What is the futureof displays? How big will these displays be? And how will we interact with them?
  • 3.
    Will We Use OurHands i.e., Gesture Interfaces? Or something else? (session 8)
  • 4.
    How About OurHomes? What will they be Like?
  • 5.
    Another View ofFuture Displays  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZkHpNnXLB0  Can you write down all the applications that you see
  • 6.
    What’s Driving theEmergence of these New Applications?  Falling cost of LCD displays  Increasing performance of LCD displays (e.g., 3D displays)  Rising performance and falling cost of OLED displays  New forms of displays such as e-ink and holograms  Session 8 discusses touch displays as part of human- computer interfaces  Many improvements are being made here and will impact on smart phones, tablet computers, and other forms of mobile devices
  • 7.
    Session Technology 1 Objectivesand overview of course 2 How/when do new technologies become economically feasible? 3 Two types of improvements: 1) Creating materials that better exploit physical phenomena; 2) Geometrical scaling 4 Semiconductors, ICs, electronic systems 5 Sensors, MEMS and the Internet of Things 6 Bio-electronics, Wearable Computing, Health Care, DNA Sequencers 7 Lighting, Lasers, and Displays 8 Roll-to Roll Printing, Human-Computer Interfaces 9 Information Technology and Land Transportation 10 Nano-technology and Superconductivity This is Seventh Session of MT5009
  • 8.
    Some of theapplications in the Videos  Photovoltaic glass, Touch screen displays on closets, in cars, phones, tablets, automobile windows, tables, walls (classrooms), 3D displays, in middle of air, in forest, augmented reality  PV glass, mirror, refrigerator, counter table, autos (GPS), MRT maps, retail clothing, eBook readers
  • 9.
    Outline  Liquid CrystalDisplays (LCDs)  Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates (and production equipment)  3D LCD displays  Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays  Electronic paper  Holographic displays
  • 10.
    Composition of LCDPanels http://www.ercservice.com/learning/what-is-tft-lcd.html
  • 11.
    Another Breakdown ofLCD TV CCFL Backlit LCD TV CCFL Backlight Diffusers To ensure a uniform brightness across panel Polarizer To ensure that the image produced is aligned correctly LCD Panel An LCD panel is made up of millions of pixels filled with liquid crystals arranged in grid, which open and shut to let the backlight through and create images Antiglare Coating Provides a mirror-like finish, making the backlight appear brighter Display Screen CCFL (cold cathode fluorescent light) (78.6 mm) backlight has been replaced with white- light LEDs (29.9 mm)
  • 12.
    “LED Television”  Notreally an LED television  An LCD television that is backlit by white LEDs  Lower energy costs, higher contrast, variety of advantages  But can’t make television only from LEDs because different color LEDs require different materials and those materials cannot be placed on the same substrate (at least currently)
  • 13.
    Other Improvements inLCD Televisions Source: AUOSource: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013
  • 14.
    Outline  Liquid CrystalDisplays (LCDs)  Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates  3D LCD displays  Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays  Electronic Paper  Holographic displays
  • 15.
     Nishimura’s Law: The size of LCD substrate grows by a factor of 1.8 every 3 years, doubles every 3.6 years (large panels are cut into appropriate sizes for electronic products)  Less than half the time for IC wafers to double in size (7.5 years)  Odawara’s Law:  Costs fall by 22-23% for doubling in cumulative production  Kichihara’s Law: every three years  Power consumption decreases by 44%  Panel thickness and weight are reduced by one-third  Number of bits needed per screen increases fourfold Display Panel Trends – towards larger and cheaper panels Source: http://metaverseroadmap.org/inputs.html, US Display Consortium (USDC)
  • 16.
    http://www.economist.com/node/21543215 Source: TelevisionMaking: Cracking Up, Economist, January 21st, 2012, p. 66
  • 17.
    Increases in Scaleof LCD Substrates (and also IC Wafers, Solar Substrates)  Equipment costs per area of output fall as size of equipment is increased, similar to chemical plants  For chemical plants  Cost is function of surface area (or radius squared)  Output is function of volume (radius cubed)  Thus, costs increase by 2/3 for each doubling of equipment capacity  For LCD Substrates, IC Wafers, and Solar Substrates  Processing, transfer, and setup time (inverse of output) fall as area of substrate increases since entire area can be processed, transferred, and setup together
  • 18.
    Another Benefit fromLarge Panels is Smaller Edge Effects Panel Equipment Effect Effects: the equipment must be much wider than panel to achieve uniformity Ratio of equipment to panel width falls as the size of the panel is increased
  • 19.
    Increases in LCDSubstrate Size Source: www.lcd-tv-reviews.com/pages/fabricating_tft_lcd.php
  • 21.
    Scale of photolithographicaligners (upper left), sputtering equipment (top right), and mirrors for aligners (lower left) for LCD equipment Source: http://www.canon.com/technology/ canon_tech/explanation/fpd.html
  • 22.
  • 25.
     We canalso see the falling cost of LCDs in the falling price of LCD TVs, albeit some of the cost reductions are coming from the falling costs of ICs
  • 27.
    Outline  Cathode RayTube  Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs)  Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates  3D LCD displays  Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays  Electronic Paper  Holographic displays
  • 28.
    Time-Sequential 3D withactive 3D Glasses (common in movies) Sources for these slides: Adapted from published paper in Technology and Society by Ng Pei Sin and myself
  • 29.
    Improvements in Frame-Rateare Occurring 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 1970s 1995 2008 2010 CRT LCD OLED/Plasma  Increased frame-rate of content approaches Critical Flicker Fusion point (where higher frame rate has no perceived benefit) – 60Hz.  Increase frame rate gives smoother, flicker-free motion, especially in high-action videos  Increased Frame-rate of Display  Reaches 120Hz; surpasses critical flicker fusion point  Surplus enables implementation of Time-sequential 3D without compromising improved frame rate of content  Improved LCD frame-rate due to improvement in Liquid Crystal structure, reduced cell-gap, and improved methods to shorten liquid crystal response time 120Hz - Minimum screen frame-rate for ‘flicker-free’ Time-sequential 3D Frameperseconds(Hz) Display Frame-Rate
  • 30.
    Improvements in FrameRate Increase the Economic Feasibility of Time Sequential 3D  Improvement in Liquid Crystal response time enable:  High frame-rate in LCD display and in active 3D glasses  Economical  Estimated cost of adding 3D to LCD display range from 10% to 30% the cost of panel  Falling costs from larger substrate size can offset these higher costs  But glasses are a big disadvantage……….
  • 31.
    Auto-Stereoscopic Displays Do NotRequire Special 3D Glasses  Panel pixels are divided into two groups  one for left-eye images  another for right-eye images  A filter element is used to focus each pixel into a viewing zone  In order to view television from different places in the room, multiple viewing zones are needed
  • 32.
     Improvements inphotolithographic equipment enable increases in pixel density  lags resolution in ICs by many years  Sometimes called Kitahara’s Law, improvements of about 4 times occur every 3 years  These increases in pixel density  Enable high definition television  But will exceed the resolution of our eyes  Thus, these increases can be used to assign different pixels  to right and left eye and  to different “viewing” zones Increases in Pixel Density, i.e., Resolution
  • 33.
     At least128million pixels/sq inch are needed  8.3 million pixels needed for high-definition TV  at least eight viewing zones needed to accommodate head movements  each viewing zone needs two sets of pixels  8.3 x 8 x 2 = 128  Best pixel density at Consumer Electronics Show in 2011 was 8.3 million pixels/sq inch  If pixel density continues to increase four-times every three years, technical feasibility in 2017  As for economic feasibility, this depends on incremental cost of the higher densities. If the incremental cost is small, they will probably become economically feasible before 2020. Auto-Stereoscopic Displays
  • 34.
    But not muchdiffusion  Not enough content?  Not enough interest in 3D?  One question is whether such content can be easily created
  • 35.
     Standardization and digitalizationease handling, storing and presentation of 3D videos  Standardization reduces complexity and cost of having to produce 3D contents for multiple competing formats  Digital 3D formats build from MPEG-4 video compression with Multiview Video Coding (MVC) encoding “Historical Progression of Media”, From: Three-Dimensional Television: Capture, transmission, Display. By Haldun M. Ozaktas, Levent Onural Other Factors Should Enable New Content: Standardization and Digitization of Video
  • 36.
    Other Factors ShouldEnable Better Content: Better graphic processors http://www.behardware.com/articles/659-1/nvidia-cuda-preview.html “NVIDIA® TESLA® GPU COMPUTING”, Nvidia, 2010, http://www.nvidia.com/docs/IO/43395/tesla-brochure-12-lr.pdf  Improved Graphics processing unit (GPU) enables:  More MPEG4 video compression  Rendering of more realistic computer animation (more polygon count and motion control points)  Rendering of 3D models for stereoscopic video for 3D displays  Enable realistic stereoscopic computer animation good enough for cinema screens presentation, increasing contents in 3D
  • 37.
    Outline  Liquid CrystalDisplays (LCDs)  Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates  3D LCD displays  Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays  Electronic Paper  Holographic displays
  • 38.
     OLED displays http://www.wsj.com/articles/lg-display-forges- ahead-on-oled-tv-technology-1428701581
  • 39.
    OLEDs have SomeAdvantages over LCDs and their Sales are Growing  Made of organic (Carbon based) materials that emit light when electricity runs through them  Fewer layers make them thinner, potentially cheaper  Flexibility comes from organic materials and thinness  Multiple colors can be roll printed onto a substrate, making them potentially cheaper than that of LCDs  Scaling up roll-to roll printing will also reduce costs
  • 40.
    Other Advantages ofOLEDs: Response Time, Viewing Angle, Grey Scale Units AMOLED CCFL LED Edge LED Full Difference Luminance cd/m2 None Brightness cd/m2 Power Contrast Ratio (CR)  1000:1 5000:1 6M:1 Dark Images Ambient Contrast Ratio @ 125 Lux ~1000:1 >2,000:1 >2,000:1 >2,000:1 High Lux Black Levels cd/m2 <0.001 0.8 0.1 0.05 Dark Images Viewing Angles CR 100% 3D Response Time ms 0.001 5 3 3 Fast Moving Gray Scale Performance All Gray Scales Movies Frame Rate Hz None 42" Power Consumption W 30 ~120 ~80 ~60 15 Lifetime hrs to 1/2 luminance 50K to 100K ~60K ~70K ~70K Initial LCD Differential Aging Yes Strength Image Sticking Some Strength Form Factor mm 2 5 3 5 Thinner >240 Poor Lower Gray Scales Minor None TFT LCD Same OLED ~1.5X Brighter 20:1 Source: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013
  • 41.
    Fewer Layers withOLEDs than with LCDs LCD  Complex structure  Passes through light and thus requires separate light source and color filters OLED  Simple structure  Makes its own light
  • 42.
    Many of themare Flexible
  • 43.
    What About aWrist Display? Can it conform to your wrist using right materials? Much better than a smart watch
  • 44.
    Flexibility Comes fromNew Materials (e.g., organic ones) and Thinner Ones Moving to polymers requires low permeation rates, higher transparencies, and low cost.
  • 45.
    OLEDs Still LagLEDs in Efficiency Subsequent improvements have occurred (see slides on lighting)
  • 46.
    • Average lifespan of 30,000 hours, half of LCD TVs 60,000 hours • a few molecules of oxygen or moisture can kill display so need better encapsulation (ink jet printing of coating?) • OLED displays are given blue tint to offset faster degradation of blue • Adding touch is also problem because indium tin oxide is brittle and will crack in touch display; can carbon nano-tubes solve this problem? Source: http://www.differencebetween.info/node/707 http://www.technologyreview.com/news/529991/bendable- displays-are-finally-headed-to-market/ Another Problem for OLEDs in TVs is Lifespan Source: http://www.hdtvinfo.eu/news/hdtv-articles/oled-tv- estimated-lifespan-shorter-then-expected.html (2008 data)
  • 47.
    Another Problem isHigh Price/Cost, but falling 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ASP(US$) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% PricePremium 32" 1080p CCFL 32" 1080 LED Edge 32" 1080 LED Back 32" OLED 1920 x 1080 OLED Premium vs. Edge OLED Premium vs. Back Source: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013
  • 48.
    Costs Fall asSubstrate Sizes get Bigger 2007 730x920 2011 Source: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013
  • 49.
    New Techniques Requiredto Scale Process  Making finely patterned sub- pixels with small molecule material requires use of vacuum thermal evaporation using a fine metal mask  Size limits are defined the sagging of the mask  To achieve > 200 ppi, AMOLEDs utilize Pentile technology, which reduces pixel size from 3 sub- pixels to 2 sub-pixels/pixel. To scale beyond ½ 4th Gen, VTE must be changed from positioning the substrate horizontally to holding vertically as implemented by Tokki, Ulvac, Sunic and AMAT  New approaches include the use of CNT by Unidym and nanowires by Cambrios Source: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013
  • 50.
    Other Patterning OptionsBeing Tried  Alternative approaches include:  Polymers and small molecule in solution which can be printed  Laser induced thermal imaging (LITI) as developed by 3M and SMD  Eliminating patterning by using white material with a color filter  The most likely for the Gen 5.5 is vertically held substrates  Beyond Gen 5.5 some form of printing will be required  Ink Jet – Panasonic, Epson  Slot – DuPont  Roll to roll process – VTT, Fraunhofer Source: OLED Summit Preview, San Francisco, September 27-29 Barry Young, Young Market Research, February 18, 2013
  • 51.
    Many Believe Roll-toRoll Printing will Lead to Dramatically Lower Costs Vacuum deposition of metals, dielectrics, & semiconductors 5μ Multiple mask levels imprinted as single 3D structure Patterning completed w/ wet & dry processes deposition imprint etch deposit spin resist align/expose develop strip/clean etch deposit etchimprint etch mask Conventional Photo-Lithography SAIL http://www.hpl.hp.com/techreports/2011/HPL-2011-152.pdf (Roll printing)
  • 52.
    A Roll ofRolled OLEDs http://deviceguru.com/euro-project-slashes-flexible-display-costs/ Konica is constructing a flexible OLED lighting R2R fab with a monthly capacity of 1 million panels. Production will start in fall of 2014 http://www.oled-info.com/tags/technical- research/frontplane/roll-roll
  • 53.
    LG’s OLED TVBusiness  Claims it made big breakthrough in hi-volume production of large screen OLED TVs  Costs dropped from $25,000 USD in 2013 to $15,000 in July 2015 on 55” TVs  Planning on introducing transparent, foldable, and curved screens  Expects that within 5 years, 40% of world’s smartphones will have flexbile OLED displays  But not clear if profits will cover LG’s $3 Billion dollar investment in OLEDs Plucky Contender, Economist, July 4, 2015, p. 56
  • 54.
    Outline  Cathode RayTube  Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs)  Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates  3D LCD displays  Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays  Electronic Paper  Holographic displays
  • 56.
    LCD + Full color -Harder on the eyes + Can display video (movies) - Takes more power (battery doesn’t last as long) + Backlit, so you can read in the dark - Hard to read outdoors or in bright sunlight Early e-Ink - Black & white + Easy on the eyes; like paper - Can’t display full video + Takes very little power (battery lasts longer) - Can’t be read in the dark (like a regular book) + Easy to read outdoors, the more light the better + Very crisp and sharp E-Ink has advantages for reading
  • 57.
    That Become ObviousWhen You Look at this Picture
  • 58.
    Improvements in E-inkElectrophoretic Displays Color is now available E Ink Vizplex 1 E Ink Vizplex 2 E Ink Pearl E Ink Triton E Ink Spectra E Ink Carta Announce ment Year 2006 2007 2010 2010 2013 2013 Cost $70 (estimated ) Based on Sory prs 500: $350 $60 (Estimated ) Based on Sony prs 505: $300 $30.5 (2011) Sony prs T1: $150 $26 Based on Sory pr-t2: $130 Color/ Greyscale 4-level gray scale 8 level gray scale 16 levels of gray 16 shades of gray, 4096 colors 2-bit (B/W/R) Contrast 7:1 10:1 10:1 15:1 15:1 Refresh Rate • 1200ms • 500ms for 1 bit mode • 740ms for grayscale • 260 ms for 1- bit mode • 600 ms for grayscale • 120 ms for 1 bit mode • 120ms - 980ms, • 120 ms Resolution •170 dpi 600 × 800 •170 dpi • 600 × 800 •Up to 300 dpi 600x800 •200 dpi •768x1024 •(212 ppi) 1024 x 758 •> 300 dpi •768x102 4
  • 59.
    And Costs ofColor Displays are Falling 7” diagonal display has 0.15 cm2 area $426 per m2, much less than LCD
  • 60.
    Will this makeWall Displays Economically Feasible?
  • 61.
    Another option fora Smart Watch? The CST-01, the thinnest watch in the world, is less than 1mm thick and weighs less than 5 pennies.
  • 62.
    Outline  Cathode RayTube  Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs)  Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates  3D LCD displays  Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays  Electronic Paper  Holographic displays
  • 63.
    Holographic Systems  Presenta real 3D image  LCD-based 3D systems present an “illusion” of three dimensions  Time-Sequential 3D with active 3D Glasses  Auto-Stereoscopic Displays  Holographic Systems present a real 3D image and thus one that can be more aesthetically appealing
  • 64.
  • 65.
    A Better Hologramin Total Recall
  • 66.
    How About aHologram for a Phone Key Pad? If it is a Hologram?
  • 67.
    A Little Different– But How about Projecting a Display onto ones Hand? This can be done with a Pico-Projector in a Samsung Phone http://www.engadget.com/2010/02/15/samsung-beam-halo-hands-on/
  • 68.
    This was donein Total Recall
  • 69.
  • 70.
  • 71.
    Looking at LightSource and Holographic Media in more Detail: The Film/Media Records both the Reference and Object Beams http://www.holostar.com/Frame1.html
  • 72.
  • 73.
  • 75.
     When mightsuch a system become technically and economically feasible for some application and some set of users?
  • 76.
    Conclusions and RelevantQuestions for Your Projects (1)  New displays continue to emerge and experience improvements  New materials that better exploit the relevant physical phenomena (e.g., materials for OLEDs that have higher luminosity per Watt or longer lifetime)  Falling costs from increases in the scale of substrates and production equipment  Improvements in components for holographic displays  Improvements in frame rate and pixel density for 3D displays
  • 77.
    Conclusions and RelevantQuestions for Your Projects (2)  How many further improvements are likely to occur?  When will their costs become low enough or performance high enough to be economical for specific applications?  Can we identify those applications, the order in which they will become economical, and the specific needs of each application?  What about higher-level systems; can we identify ones that might become economically feasible due to improvements in displays and other “components”?  What kinds of analyses can help us answer these questions?