These slides describe the process by which many new electronic products become economically feasible and the types of questions that young entrepreneurs should be asking when they are searching for new opportunities. It first shows detailed cost data for nine types of electronic products and that about 95% of the costs involve standard electronic components such as microprocessors, memory, and displays. Second, it focuses on the iPhone and the iPad and how they have been improved, mostly through the availability of better standard components. Third, we work backwards and identify the performance and cost that were needed in these components before the iPhone and iPad offered sufficient levels of performance and price to users. Fourth, we use this analysis to think about the types of new smart phones and tablet computers that will likely emerge in the next few years and the types of questions that young entrepreneurs should be asking about them. Fifth, these examples are used to revise models of learning and invention. These slides are based on one of my courses, MT5009 (Analyzing Hi-Tech Opportunities), and more details (lecture and group presentation slides) can found on one of my slideshare accounts: http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
How and When do New Technologies Become Economically FeasibleJeffrey Funk
These slides contrast two processes by which new technologies become economically feasible. Some technologies become economically feasible as advances in science facilitate the creation of new concepts and improvements in the resulting technologies. Other technologies become economically feasible as improvements in electronic components (e.g., Moore's Law), smart phones, and the Internet experience improvements.
Predicting Breakthrough Technologies: An empirical analysis of past predictio...Jeffrey Funk
These slides empirically analyzes predictions made by MIT’s Technology Review. Technology Review has produced a list of 10 breakthrough technologies for many of the last 10 years (2001, 2002-2014). These predictions are based on conversations with academic experts from a variety of scientific disciplines. To analyze these predictions, I gathered recent market sales data for the predictions done in 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2005. I found that many of these technologies still have small markets (<$1Billion), markets that are smaller than technologies not chosen by Technology Review such as smart phones, Cloud Computing. Tablet Computers. Big Data, Social Networking, and eBooks/eReaders. The slides then use theories of cognition to explain these relatively poor predictions and propose an alternative way of predicting breakthrough technologies
What enables improvements in cost and performance to occur?Jeffrey Funk
These slides discuss the design changes that enable improvements in cost and performance to occur. The main types of design changes that lead to improvements are: 1) reductions in scale (e.g., transistors and Moore's Law); 2) creation of new materials; 3) increases in scale (e.g., internal combustion engines, oil tankers, production equipment). Some technologies experience these improvements directly and some indirectly through the impact of components on higher-level systems.
Intro to course module: How do new Technologies Become Economically FeasibleJeffrey Funk
These slides introduce a course that helps students understand when new technologies become economically feasible. It does this by focusing on technologies that are experiencing rapid improvements. These technologies (and systems composed from them) are more likely to become economically feasible for a growing number of applications than are technologies with less rapid rates of improvement. It also helps students understand the reasons for these rapid rates of improvement and thus the types of technologies for which we can expect rapid rates of improvement. While many analyses of new technologies focus on demand and production, these slides show how other technical changes impact more directly on improvements. these technical changes include new materials and scaling.
These slides discuss Robert Gordon's recent book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth. He argues that growth was faster between 1870 and 1940 than between 1940 and 2010. Simply put, an American in 1870 would not have recognized life in 1940 but an American in 1940 would recognize life today. These slides discuss what would be needed to change these results and thus make the improvements since 1940 equivalent to those between 1870 and 1940
These slides analyse the improvements in materials and electronics that are making new forms of displays economically feasible. Improvements in organic and other materials, integrated circuits, and other electronics are making displays better and cheaper and will cause them to become even more widely used in our economy than they currently are.
These slides analyze the impact of improved cloud computing on the ability to provide better real-time security, These improvements are changing security from a batch to a real-time world in which terrorists and other criminals can be more quickly captured.
MIT's Poor Predictions About TechnologyJeffrey Funk
These slides analyze the 40 predictions of breakthrough technologies that were made betwee 2001 and 2005 by MIT’s Technology Review. Most of them are science-based technologies, and none of the science-based technologies predicted between 2001 and 2005 have markets larger than $10 billion. Among its 40 predictions, only four have markets larger than $10 billion and these technologies have little to do with recent advances in science and instead were enabled by Moore’s Law and improvements in Internet services. MIT also missed many technologies that have achieved market sales greater than $100 billion such as smart phones, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things and other technologies with sales greater than $50 billion such as e-commerce for apparel and tablet computers.
How and When do New Technologies Become Economically FeasibleJeffrey Funk
These slides contrast two processes by which new technologies become economically feasible. Some technologies become economically feasible as advances in science facilitate the creation of new concepts and improvements in the resulting technologies. Other technologies become economically feasible as improvements in electronic components (e.g., Moore's Law), smart phones, and the Internet experience improvements.
Predicting Breakthrough Technologies: An empirical analysis of past predictio...Jeffrey Funk
These slides empirically analyzes predictions made by MIT’s Technology Review. Technology Review has produced a list of 10 breakthrough technologies for many of the last 10 years (2001, 2002-2014). These predictions are based on conversations with academic experts from a variety of scientific disciplines. To analyze these predictions, I gathered recent market sales data for the predictions done in 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2005. I found that many of these technologies still have small markets (<$1Billion), markets that are smaller than technologies not chosen by Technology Review such as smart phones, Cloud Computing. Tablet Computers. Big Data, Social Networking, and eBooks/eReaders. The slides then use theories of cognition to explain these relatively poor predictions and propose an alternative way of predicting breakthrough technologies
What enables improvements in cost and performance to occur?Jeffrey Funk
These slides discuss the design changes that enable improvements in cost and performance to occur. The main types of design changes that lead to improvements are: 1) reductions in scale (e.g., transistors and Moore's Law); 2) creation of new materials; 3) increases in scale (e.g., internal combustion engines, oil tankers, production equipment). Some technologies experience these improvements directly and some indirectly through the impact of components on higher-level systems.
Intro to course module: How do new Technologies Become Economically FeasibleJeffrey Funk
These slides introduce a course that helps students understand when new technologies become economically feasible. It does this by focusing on technologies that are experiencing rapid improvements. These technologies (and systems composed from them) are more likely to become economically feasible for a growing number of applications than are technologies with less rapid rates of improvement. It also helps students understand the reasons for these rapid rates of improvement and thus the types of technologies for which we can expect rapid rates of improvement. While many analyses of new technologies focus on demand and production, these slides show how other technical changes impact more directly on improvements. these technical changes include new materials and scaling.
These slides discuss Robert Gordon's recent book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth. He argues that growth was faster between 1870 and 1940 than between 1940 and 2010. Simply put, an American in 1870 would not have recognized life in 1940 but an American in 1940 would recognize life today. These slides discuss what would be needed to change these results and thus make the improvements since 1940 equivalent to those between 1870 and 1940
These slides analyse the improvements in materials and electronics that are making new forms of displays economically feasible. Improvements in organic and other materials, integrated circuits, and other electronics are making displays better and cheaper and will cause them to become even more widely used in our economy than they currently are.
These slides analyze the impact of improved cloud computing on the ability to provide better real-time security, These improvements are changing security from a batch to a real-time world in which terrorists and other criminals can be more quickly captured.
MIT's Poor Predictions About TechnologyJeffrey Funk
These slides analyze the 40 predictions of breakthrough technologies that were made betwee 2001 and 2005 by MIT’s Technology Review. Most of them are science-based technologies, and none of the science-based technologies predicted between 2001 and 2005 have markets larger than $10 billion. Among its 40 predictions, only four have markets larger than $10 billion and these technologies have little to do with recent advances in science and instead were enabled by Moore’s Law and improvements in Internet services. MIT also missed many technologies that have achieved market sales greater than $100 billion such as smart phones, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things and other technologies with sales greater than $50 billion such as e-commerce for apparel and tablet computers.
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to show how mobile devices are becoming more economically feasible for health care. Rapid improvements in electronics are enabling a wide variety of health-related attachments to become available for mobile phones. These attachments can analyze breath, blood oxygen levels, blood glucose, blood type, and urine and do ultrasounds. These advances will change the way health care is monitored and managed.
Wireless healthcare: the next generationJeffrey Funk
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how wireless healthcare are becoming economic feasible. Improvements in microprocessor and transceiver ICs, MEMS, photo-sensors, and other electronic components are making wireless healthcare economically feasible. These slides show how improvements in these components are making capsule endoscopy, smart drug delivery, and digital pills economically feasible. Capsule endoscopy involves sending a small device through the body, particularly the digestive system, to take images. Further improvements in electronic components are needed to further reduce the size of these devices. Drugs can be dispensed through smart pills at programmed times or can be triggered by sensors that detect the correct location. Digital pills send signals to mobile phones or other devices when the pills have been taken. The slides conclude by discussing the role of mobile phones in increasing the number of wireless healthcare applications.
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to show how AHaH (anti-Hebbian and Hebbian) computing is becoming economically feasible. Traditional computing with the von Neumann architecture requires constant interactions between the processor and the memory (usually DRAM) and improvements in memory access time are occurring at a much slower rate than that of microprocessor speeds. This performance gap is becoming a bottleneck for von Neumann based computers. AHaH computing (and Synaptic computing http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/neurosynaptic-chips) address this bottleneck in that they use a different architecture that mimics the processing of the brain. AHaH computing has additional differences from von Neumann (and synaptic) architectures in that it reduces the number of interactions between the memory and the processor by combining some aspects of memory on the processing chip. This is done with so-called memristors, which are naturally adaptive systems, and which are experiencing rapid improvements in cost, storage density, and storage capacity. With memristors, widely used pathways become stronger and less widely used pathways become weaker thus facilitating machine learning. Although machine learning can also be done with software, memristors and AHaH computing enables machine learning at the hardware level. The optimism for AHaH computing partly comes from the rapid improvements in memristors, which are rapidly improving the economics of AHaH computing.
Improvements in information technology related technologies are encouraging and enabling greater use of public transportation and they are enabling new forms of transportation systems that have lower carbon emissions and use less resources. Improvements in information-related technologies such as mobile phones and GPS encourage greater use of public buses, bicycle sharing systems, and trains. These same improvements are making autonomous vehicles economically feasible and roads dedicated to them. Roads dedicated to them can reduce congestion, increase fuel efficiency, and reduce accidents and costs related to them. In combination with public transportation, autonomous vehicles can reduce the need for private vehicles and thus parking spaces. Similar types of improvements in power electronics are reducing the cost and improving the performance of charging stations and thus enable more rapid recharging with a denser number of charging stations. This rapid and more frequent recharging can overcome the existing bottleneck of lower battery storage densities and slow improvements in these storage densities. Overall, improvements in information technology are making possible new forms of sustainable systems that have a much higher chance of becoming economically feasible than more commonly discussed solutions such as hybrid vehicles and wind turbines.
Speech recognition: ready to take off?Jeffrey Funk
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled Biz Models for Hi-Tech Products to analyze the business model for Self-cleaning textiles. Self-cleaning textiles require much less cleaning than do regular textiles because they use special coatings that often include nano-particles. These special coatings make it harder for dirt and bacteria to stick to clothing. These slides describe the value proposition for users along with the customers and methods of value capture.
Moore’s Law is slowing, but more importantly the world is changing from PCs to smart phones and cloud computing where improvements continue to occur. Improvements are still occurring in other types of ICs such as wireless, GPUs, and 3D camera chips because they lag microprocessors and parallel processing is easier on them than on microprocessors. Data centers are also experiencing rapid improvements as changes in architecture are made, particularly for analyzing unstructured data, i.e., Big Data. These slides discuss the implications for new services in areas such as smart phones, software, and Big Data. The last one-third of the slides summarize alternatives to silicon and von Neumann.
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to show how the cost and performance of micro-fluidics are improving. Miro-fluidic devices have small micro-channels that analyze many types of fluidics. They can be fabricated from many materials including paper, textiles, and plastics. Plastics are the most recent to emerge and their fabrication relies on many of the same techniques that are used to fabricate integrated circuits. This means that they have been experiencing very rapid improvements as fabrication techniques are improved for ICs and then used to make micro-fluidic MEMS. (micro-mechanical electrical systems). Micro-fluidics are widely used in health care to analyze bacteria in water, glucose in sweat, nitrate contamination in water, and the blood of mosquitoes. Emerging applications include analysis of blood for early cancer detection.
Multiple Passenger Ride Sharing Changes Economics of CommutingJeffrey Funk
While Uber has challenged taxi drivers, multiple passenger ride sharing service can give us the both of best worlds: short travel times and low prices. They can provide the low prices of public transport with the short travel times of private cars or single passenger taxis. Different than Uber Pool or other crowd sourcing services, the key is for the startup to guarantee both short travel times and low prices, even if demand does not initially exist. This can be be done by having better data on the starting and ending points of travelers, which enables us to identify high demand routes and times and thus enable services that have few stops. The fewer stops enable short transit times and the multiple passengers in cars, vans, or mini-buses can reduce costs.
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) class to analyze the near-term future for touch-screen displays. Improvements in durability, sensitivity, and flexibility are being implemented
Virtual Retinal Display: their falling cost and rising performanceJeffrey Funk
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze the increasing economic feasibility of virtual retinal displays. These displays focus light on a person’s retina using LEDs, digital micro-mirrors and lenses, which are all encased in a head-set about the size of glasses. They enable high resolution 3D video images with a large field of view that are far superior to existing displays. Rapid improvements in LEDs and digital micro-mirrors (one type of MEMS) are enabling these displays to experience rapid reductions in cost and improvements in performance.
Designing Roads for AVs (autonomous vehicles)Jeffrey Funk
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) represent one of the most promising new technologies for smart cities and for humans in general. The problem is that cities will not realize the full benefits from AVs until roads are designed for them. Until this occurs, their main benefit will be the elimination of the driver and steering wheel, which will reduce the cost and increase the capacity of taxis; but even this impact will not occur for many years because of safety concerns. Thus, in the near term, the main benefit of AVs will be free time for the driver to do emails and other smart phone related tasks.
A better solution is to design roads for AVs or in other words, to constrain the environment for AVs in order to simplify the engineering problem for them. For example, designing roads so that all vehicles can be controlled by a combination of wireless communication, RFID tags, and magnets will reduce the cost of AVs and increase their benefits. Only AVs would be allowed on these roads, they are checked for autonomous capability at the entrance, and control is returned to the driver when an AV leaves the road. Existing cars can be retrofitted with wireless modules that enable cars to be controlled by a central system, thus enabling cars to travel closely together. The magnets and RFID tags create an invisible railway that keeps the AVs in their lanes while wireless communication is used for lane changing and exiting a highway (Chang et al, 2014; Le Quesne et al, 2014). These wireless modules, magnets and RFID tags will be much cheaper than the expensive LIDAR that is needed when AVs are mixed with conventional vehicles on a road.
The benefits from dedicating roads to AVs include higher vehicle densities, less congestion, faster travel times, and higher fuel efficiencies. These seemingly contradicting goals can be achieved because AVs can have shorter inter-vehicle distances even at high speeds thus enabling higher densities, lower congestion, and lower travel times. The less congestion and thus fewer instances of slow moving or stopped vehicles enable the vehicles to travel at those speeds at which higher fuel efficiencies can be achieved (Funk, 2015). In combination with new forms of multiple passenger ride sharing, the higher fuel efficiencies will also reduce carbon emissions and thus help fight climate change.
The challenge is to develop a robust system that can be easily deployed in various cities and that will be compatible with vehicles containing the proper subsystems. Such a system can be developed in much the same way that new cellular systems are developed and tested. Suppliers of mobile phone infrastructure, automobiles, sensors, LIDAR, 3D vision systems, and other components must work with city governments and universities to develop and test a robust architecture followed by the development of a detail design.
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how Light Field Technology is becoming economic feasible for an increasing number of applications. Light Field Cameras record all of the light fields in a picture instead of just one light field. This capability enables users to change the focus of pictures after they have been taken and to more easily record 3D data. These features are becoming economically feasible improvements because of rapid improvements in camera chips and micro-lens arrays (an example of micro-electronic mechanical systems, MEMS). These features offer alternative ways to do 3D sensing for automated vehicles and augmented reality and can enable faster data collection with telescopes.
Graphene: its increasing economic feasibility Jeffrey Funk
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how Graphene is becoming economic feasible for an increasing number of applications as its price falls and its quality/performance rises through improvements in chemical vapor deposition processes. Graphene is one of the strongest materials discovered, has high electronic and thermal conductivities, and unusual optical properties. These slides describe a number of applications for which Graphene is gradually becoming economically feasible including displays, integrated circuits, solar cells, water desalination, and natural gas tanks.
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how Big Data is becoming economically feasible for health care. These slides describe how the cost of sensors, data processing, data storage and data analyzing are falling, how new and better forms of storage and algorithms are being implemented, and what this means for sustainable health care. These changes are enabling a move towards personalized health care.
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze rapid improvements in the economic feasibility of robotic exoskeletons. These exoskeletons can be worn by workers in harmful environments and physically disabled people. By sensing a person’s nerve impulses, these exoskeletons can activate motors that help people move and lift heavy objects. Improvements in biosensors, ICs, materials, batteries, and other components have enabled dramatic reductions in cost and weight, and improvements in response time
Dedicated roads for autonomous vehicles Jeffrey Funk
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how autonomous vehicles are becoming economic feasible. They are becoming economically feasible because the cost of lasers, ICs, MEMS, and other electronic components are falling at 25 to 40% per year. If the cost of autonomous vehicles fall 25% a year, the cost of the electronics associated with autonomous vehicles will fall 90% in 10 years. Dedicating roads to autonomous vehicles is necessary to achieve the most benefits from autonomous vehicles. While using autonomous vehicles in combination with conventional vehicles can free drivers for other activities, dedicating roads to autonomous vehicles can dramatically reduce congestion, increase speeds, and thus increase the number of cars per area of the road. They can also reduce accidents, insurance, and the number of traffic police. These slide discuss a number of technologies that can be used for the dedicated roads including wireless communication, magnetic stripes and RFIDs that together can coordinate vehicles on roads. The slides end by summarizing efforts in Singapore.
Superconducting materials becoming economicaly feasible for energy applicationsJeffrey Funk
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how the economic feasibility of superconductors is becoming better for energy applications through improvements in critical currents, magnetic fields, and temperatures. These applications include fault current limiters, motors, generators, transformers, and transmission lines. These improvements are being achieved through changes in process design and the chemical composition of the superconducting materials. With rates of improvement exceeding 30% a year, it is likely that superconducting materials should be an important part of our energy policy and will contribute towards the diffusion of solar cells and electric vehicles.
High-Altitude Solar Glider for Internet AccessJeffrey Funk
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze the increasing economic feasibility of high-altitude solar glider for Internet access. The falling cost of electronics and solar cells are making these glider economically feasible when compared to traditional satellites. They have lower manufacturing and launch costs than do traditional satellites and lower installation costs than do fiber optic cable. This enables them to provide cheaper Internet access in developing countries where Internet access is still limited to cities.
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how Neurosynaptic chips are becoming economic feasible for supercomputing applications. Neurosynaptic chips use a different architecture, one that mimics the brain with neurons and synapses. These neurons and synapses are built with conventional architecture. This presentation describes the advantages and disadvantages of synaptic chips when compared to conventional chips and how rapid rates of progress in speed, density, and power efficiency are making synaptic chips economically feasible for supercomputing applications. The biggest disadvantage for synaptic chips is in software; a new operating system and application software are needed.
Get an overview of Qualcomm Technologies, Inc.'s power and performance profiling tools, and how these tools can help you create more efficient apps. Covered topics include using profiling tools to determine whether your app exhibits behavior that causes excessive power consumption, how to resolve the top five power-related problems and more.
Watch this presentation on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Uc0qpMzfw0
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to show how mobile devices are becoming more economically feasible for health care. Rapid improvements in electronics are enabling a wide variety of health-related attachments to become available for mobile phones. These attachments can analyze breath, blood oxygen levels, blood glucose, blood type, and urine and do ultrasounds. These advances will change the way health care is monitored and managed.
Wireless healthcare: the next generationJeffrey Funk
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how wireless healthcare are becoming economic feasible. Improvements in microprocessor and transceiver ICs, MEMS, photo-sensors, and other electronic components are making wireless healthcare economically feasible. These slides show how improvements in these components are making capsule endoscopy, smart drug delivery, and digital pills economically feasible. Capsule endoscopy involves sending a small device through the body, particularly the digestive system, to take images. Further improvements in electronic components are needed to further reduce the size of these devices. Drugs can be dispensed through smart pills at programmed times or can be triggered by sensors that detect the correct location. Digital pills send signals to mobile phones or other devices when the pills have been taken. The slides conclude by discussing the role of mobile phones in increasing the number of wireless healthcare applications.
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to show how AHaH (anti-Hebbian and Hebbian) computing is becoming economically feasible. Traditional computing with the von Neumann architecture requires constant interactions between the processor and the memory (usually DRAM) and improvements in memory access time are occurring at a much slower rate than that of microprocessor speeds. This performance gap is becoming a bottleneck for von Neumann based computers. AHaH computing (and Synaptic computing http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/neurosynaptic-chips) address this bottleneck in that they use a different architecture that mimics the processing of the brain. AHaH computing has additional differences from von Neumann (and synaptic) architectures in that it reduces the number of interactions between the memory and the processor by combining some aspects of memory on the processing chip. This is done with so-called memristors, which are naturally adaptive systems, and which are experiencing rapid improvements in cost, storage density, and storage capacity. With memristors, widely used pathways become stronger and less widely used pathways become weaker thus facilitating machine learning. Although machine learning can also be done with software, memristors and AHaH computing enables machine learning at the hardware level. The optimism for AHaH computing partly comes from the rapid improvements in memristors, which are rapidly improving the economics of AHaH computing.
Improvements in information technology related technologies are encouraging and enabling greater use of public transportation and they are enabling new forms of transportation systems that have lower carbon emissions and use less resources. Improvements in information-related technologies such as mobile phones and GPS encourage greater use of public buses, bicycle sharing systems, and trains. These same improvements are making autonomous vehicles economically feasible and roads dedicated to them. Roads dedicated to them can reduce congestion, increase fuel efficiency, and reduce accidents and costs related to them. In combination with public transportation, autonomous vehicles can reduce the need for private vehicles and thus parking spaces. Similar types of improvements in power electronics are reducing the cost and improving the performance of charging stations and thus enable more rapid recharging with a denser number of charging stations. This rapid and more frequent recharging can overcome the existing bottleneck of lower battery storage densities and slow improvements in these storage densities. Overall, improvements in information technology are making possible new forms of sustainable systems that have a much higher chance of becoming economically feasible than more commonly discussed solutions such as hybrid vehicles and wind turbines.
Speech recognition: ready to take off?Jeffrey Funk
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled Biz Models for Hi-Tech Products to analyze the business model for Self-cleaning textiles. Self-cleaning textiles require much less cleaning than do regular textiles because they use special coatings that often include nano-particles. These special coatings make it harder for dirt and bacteria to stick to clothing. These slides describe the value proposition for users along with the customers and methods of value capture.
Moore’s Law is slowing, but more importantly the world is changing from PCs to smart phones and cloud computing where improvements continue to occur. Improvements are still occurring in other types of ICs such as wireless, GPUs, and 3D camera chips because they lag microprocessors and parallel processing is easier on them than on microprocessors. Data centers are also experiencing rapid improvements as changes in architecture are made, particularly for analyzing unstructured data, i.e., Big Data. These slides discuss the implications for new services in areas such as smart phones, software, and Big Data. The last one-third of the slides summarize alternatives to silicon and von Neumann.
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to show how the cost and performance of micro-fluidics are improving. Miro-fluidic devices have small micro-channels that analyze many types of fluidics. They can be fabricated from many materials including paper, textiles, and plastics. Plastics are the most recent to emerge and their fabrication relies on many of the same techniques that are used to fabricate integrated circuits. This means that they have been experiencing very rapid improvements as fabrication techniques are improved for ICs and then used to make micro-fluidic MEMS. (micro-mechanical electrical systems). Micro-fluidics are widely used in health care to analyze bacteria in water, glucose in sweat, nitrate contamination in water, and the blood of mosquitoes. Emerging applications include analysis of blood for early cancer detection.
Multiple Passenger Ride Sharing Changes Economics of CommutingJeffrey Funk
While Uber has challenged taxi drivers, multiple passenger ride sharing service can give us the both of best worlds: short travel times and low prices. They can provide the low prices of public transport with the short travel times of private cars or single passenger taxis. Different than Uber Pool or other crowd sourcing services, the key is for the startup to guarantee both short travel times and low prices, even if demand does not initially exist. This can be be done by having better data on the starting and ending points of travelers, which enables us to identify high demand routes and times and thus enable services that have few stops. The fewer stops enable short transit times and the multiple passengers in cars, vans, or mini-buses can reduce costs.
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) class to analyze the near-term future for touch-screen displays. Improvements in durability, sensitivity, and flexibility are being implemented
Virtual Retinal Display: their falling cost and rising performanceJeffrey Funk
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze the increasing economic feasibility of virtual retinal displays. These displays focus light on a person’s retina using LEDs, digital micro-mirrors and lenses, which are all encased in a head-set about the size of glasses. They enable high resolution 3D video images with a large field of view that are far superior to existing displays. Rapid improvements in LEDs and digital micro-mirrors (one type of MEMS) are enabling these displays to experience rapid reductions in cost and improvements in performance.
Designing Roads for AVs (autonomous vehicles)Jeffrey Funk
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) represent one of the most promising new technologies for smart cities and for humans in general. The problem is that cities will not realize the full benefits from AVs until roads are designed for them. Until this occurs, their main benefit will be the elimination of the driver and steering wheel, which will reduce the cost and increase the capacity of taxis; but even this impact will not occur for many years because of safety concerns. Thus, in the near term, the main benefit of AVs will be free time for the driver to do emails and other smart phone related tasks.
A better solution is to design roads for AVs or in other words, to constrain the environment for AVs in order to simplify the engineering problem for them. For example, designing roads so that all vehicles can be controlled by a combination of wireless communication, RFID tags, and magnets will reduce the cost of AVs and increase their benefits. Only AVs would be allowed on these roads, they are checked for autonomous capability at the entrance, and control is returned to the driver when an AV leaves the road. Existing cars can be retrofitted with wireless modules that enable cars to be controlled by a central system, thus enabling cars to travel closely together. The magnets and RFID tags create an invisible railway that keeps the AVs in their lanes while wireless communication is used for lane changing and exiting a highway (Chang et al, 2014; Le Quesne et al, 2014). These wireless modules, magnets and RFID tags will be much cheaper than the expensive LIDAR that is needed when AVs are mixed with conventional vehicles on a road.
The benefits from dedicating roads to AVs include higher vehicle densities, less congestion, faster travel times, and higher fuel efficiencies. These seemingly contradicting goals can be achieved because AVs can have shorter inter-vehicle distances even at high speeds thus enabling higher densities, lower congestion, and lower travel times. The less congestion and thus fewer instances of slow moving or stopped vehicles enable the vehicles to travel at those speeds at which higher fuel efficiencies can be achieved (Funk, 2015). In combination with new forms of multiple passenger ride sharing, the higher fuel efficiencies will also reduce carbon emissions and thus help fight climate change.
The challenge is to develop a robust system that can be easily deployed in various cities and that will be compatible with vehicles containing the proper subsystems. Such a system can be developed in much the same way that new cellular systems are developed and tested. Suppliers of mobile phone infrastructure, automobiles, sensors, LIDAR, 3D vision systems, and other components must work with city governments and universities to develop and test a robust architecture followed by the development of a detail design.
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how Light Field Technology is becoming economic feasible for an increasing number of applications. Light Field Cameras record all of the light fields in a picture instead of just one light field. This capability enables users to change the focus of pictures after they have been taken and to more easily record 3D data. These features are becoming economically feasible improvements because of rapid improvements in camera chips and micro-lens arrays (an example of micro-electronic mechanical systems, MEMS). These features offer alternative ways to do 3D sensing for automated vehicles and augmented reality and can enable faster data collection with telescopes.
Graphene: its increasing economic feasibility Jeffrey Funk
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how Graphene is becoming economic feasible for an increasing number of applications as its price falls and its quality/performance rises through improvements in chemical vapor deposition processes. Graphene is one of the strongest materials discovered, has high electronic and thermal conductivities, and unusual optical properties. These slides describe a number of applications for which Graphene is gradually becoming economically feasible including displays, integrated circuits, solar cells, water desalination, and natural gas tanks.
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how Big Data is becoming economically feasible for health care. These slides describe how the cost of sensors, data processing, data storage and data analyzing are falling, how new and better forms of storage and algorithms are being implemented, and what this means for sustainable health care. These changes are enabling a move towards personalized health care.
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze rapid improvements in the economic feasibility of robotic exoskeletons. These exoskeletons can be worn by workers in harmful environments and physically disabled people. By sensing a person’s nerve impulses, these exoskeletons can activate motors that help people move and lift heavy objects. Improvements in biosensors, ICs, materials, batteries, and other components have enabled dramatic reductions in cost and weight, and improvements in response time
Dedicated roads for autonomous vehicles Jeffrey Funk
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how autonomous vehicles are becoming economic feasible. They are becoming economically feasible because the cost of lasers, ICs, MEMS, and other electronic components are falling at 25 to 40% per year. If the cost of autonomous vehicles fall 25% a year, the cost of the electronics associated with autonomous vehicles will fall 90% in 10 years. Dedicating roads to autonomous vehicles is necessary to achieve the most benefits from autonomous vehicles. While using autonomous vehicles in combination with conventional vehicles can free drivers for other activities, dedicating roads to autonomous vehicles can dramatically reduce congestion, increase speeds, and thus increase the number of cars per area of the road. They can also reduce accidents, insurance, and the number of traffic police. These slide discuss a number of technologies that can be used for the dedicated roads including wireless communication, magnetic stripes and RFIDs that together can coordinate vehicles on roads. The slides end by summarizing efforts in Singapore.
Superconducting materials becoming economicaly feasible for energy applicationsJeffrey Funk
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https://awexr.com
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Implicitly or explicitly all competing businesses employ a strategy to select a mix
of marketing resources. Formulating such competitive strategies fundamentally
involves recognizing relationships between elements of the marketing mix (e.g.,
price and product quality), as well as assessing competitive and market conditions
(i.e., industry structure in the language of economics).
When do new technologies become economically feasible: the case of electronic products
1. When Do New Technologies
Become Economically Feasible?
The Case of Electronic Products
A/Prof Jeffrey Funk
Division of Engineering and Technology
Management
National University of Singapore
For information on other technologies, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
2. Some Theory: Modeling
Improvements in Products
Learning curve
Costs fall as cumulative production rises
Assumes most improvements occur on factory floor
Experience curve
Costs fall and performance rises as cumulative production increases
Assumes that increasing cumulative production encourages product
and process R&D, thus leading to improvements
But which improvements are most prevalent?
Learning in factories, product and process R&D?
We analyzed technologies that experienced rapid rates of
improvement before commercial production began in order to
eliminate factory floor learning
3. Rapid Improvements with No Commercial
Production: How do the Improvements Occur?
Analyzed how improvements in cost and performance
occurred for 13 technologies that
experienced rapid improvements (>10%/year)
without commercial production
13 technologies
Organic transistors, solar cells, LEDs; Quantum dot displays and
solar cells; Superconducting Josephson Junctions, Quantum
computers; Superconducting cables, Carbon nano-tube
transistors; Non-volatile memory: PRAM, MRAM, FeRAM, ReRAM
Most common methods of improvement
New materials (and new processes for them)
Reductions in scale of features
Source: Funk J and Magee C 2015. Rapid Improvements with No Commercial Production: how do the improvements occur? Research Policy
4. Are there other Technologies
that Contradict the Learning
and Experience Curves?
Rapid improvements occur but…
Improvements in assembly or
product and process R&D for the
final product cannot be the
explanations for the rapid
improvements
5. What Happens When Cost of Standard
Components are far Higher than Cost
of Assembly Operations?
Low contribution of assembly to total costs means
that learning in assembly or process R&D for
assembly cannot be key sources of improvements
Standard components are used
by multiple suppliers of end products and/or
in different types of products from the same (or
different) end product supplier
Large contribution of standard components
Means that opportunities for product R&D are
limited
Improvements in the end products come mostly
from improvements in the standard components
6. Nine Electronic Products Were Analyzed
Smart Phones
Tablet computers
Laptop
computers
eBook
Readers
Game Consoles
MP3 Players
Large screen
TVs
Internet TVs
Google
Glass
8. Type of
Product
Final Assembly Standard Components1
Number of
Data Points
Average
(%)
Number of
Data Points
Lower Estimate for
Average2 (%)
Smart Phones 28 4.2% 26, 28 76%, 79%
Tablet
Computers
33 3.1% 33, 33 81%, 84%
eBook Readers 6 4.9% 6, 9 88%, 88%
Game Consoles 2 2.4% 2, 2 64%, 70%
MP3 Players 2 3.4% 2, 9 78%, 80%
Large Screen
Televisions
2 2.4% 2, 2 82%, 84%
Internet TVs 2 5.7% 2, 2 57%, 61%
Google Glass 1 2.7% 1, 1 62%, 64%
Cost Breakdown for Electronic Products
1 Values as a percent of total and material costs
2 Excludes mechanical components, printed circuit boards, and passive components
9. Preliminary Conclusions
Cost of assembly is very low
Improvements in assembly operations or process R&D
for assembly cannot be important sources of cost
reductions
Contribution of standard components is very high
Design space and opportunities for product R&D are
limited
Demand for the standard components are not driven
by a single end product
What is Driving the Improvements?
Let’s look in more detail at the standard components
in these products
10. Type of
Product
# of
Data
Point
Memory Micro-
Proc-
essor
Display Cam-
era
Connect-
ivity,
Sensors
Bat-
tery
Power
Mgmt
Phones 23 15% 22% 22% 8.2% 7.9% 2.3% 3.8%
Tablets 33 17% 6.6% 38% 2.9% 6.3% 7.3% 2.5%
eBook
Readers
9 10% 8.1% 42% 0.30% 8.3% 8.3% Not
available
Game
Console
2 38% 39% none none Not
available
none 5.8%
MP3
Players
9 53% 9% 6% none Not
available
4% 3.5%
TVs 2 7% 4.0% 76% none Not avail. none 3.0%
Internet
TVs
2 16% 31% none none 10.5% none 3.5%
Google
Glass
1 17% 18% 3.8% 7.2% 14% 1.5% 4.5%
Contribution of “Standard Components” to Costs
of Selected Electronic Products
11. Summary of Previous Slide
Processors and Memory (including DRAM, SRAM, flash, hard
disks, CDs) represent high percentage of costs
Game consoles (77%), MP3 players (53%)
Internet TVs (47%), Smart phones (37%)
For smart phones, multiple processors
Internal processing of music, video, apps
Processing of cellular network signals (and WiFi)
Displays represent largest percentage in
Large screen televisions (76%)
Tablet computers (38%)
eBook Readers (42%)
All of these components experience rapid improvements
Processors, memory (Moore’s Law, 40% per year), camera: 30 to
50% per year, displays: 12% per year (see next slide)
13. Interpretation
A small number of standard components play
important role in electronic products and
improvements in them
Enable improvements
Determine new types of functions
This is why many people emphasize Moore’s Law
Because it is really changing our world
To investigate the role of these components in
more detail, we now consider two types of
products
Smart phones
Tablet computers
14. Measure iPhone iPhone 3G iPhone 4 iPhone 5 iPhone 6
Operating
System
1.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0
Flash Memory 4, 8, 16GB 8 or 16GB 8, 16, 64GB 16, 32, 64GB 16, 64, or 128GB
DRAM 128MB 128MB 512MB 1GB 1GB
Application
Processor
620MHz Samsung 32-bit RISC 1 GHz dual-
core Apple A5
1.3 GHz dual-core
Apple A6
1.4 GHz dual-core
Apple A8
Graphics
Processor
PowerVR MBX Lite 38 (103 MHz) PowerVR
SGX535 (200
MHz)
PowerVR
SGX543MP3 (tri-
core, 266 MHz)
PowerVR GX6450
(quad-core)
Cellular
Processor
GSM/GPRS/
EDGE
Previous plus
UMTS/HSDPA
3.6Mbps
Previous plus
HSUPA
5.76Mbps
Previous plus LTE,
HSPA+, DC-HSDPA,
4.4Mbps
Previous plus LTE-
Advanced, 14.4Mbps
Display
resolution
163 ppi (pixels per inch) 326 ppi 401 ppi
Camera
resolution
Video speed
2 MP (mega-pixels) 5 MP
30 fps, 480p
8 MP
30 fps at 1080p
8 MP
60 fps at 1080p
WiFi 802.11 b/g 802.11 b/g/n 802.11 a/b/g/n 802.11 a/b/g/n/ac
Other Bluetooth 2.0 GPS,
compass,
Bluetooth
2.1,
gyroscope
GPS, compass, Blue-
tooth 4.0, gyroscope,
voice recognition
Previous plus finger-
print scanner, near-
field communication
Evolution of iPhone in Terms of Measures of Performance
Fps: frames per second
480p: progressive scan of 480 vertical lines
15. Summary of Previous Slide
More memory enables more data to be saved
Songs, pictures
Videos, games, apps
Faster processors means
More sophisticated apps, games and cellular networks, the
latter enables higher speeds
Higher resolution audio, displays, video, cameras
Faster and newer WiFi and Bluetooth chips
Mean higher data speeds
Better displays means higher resolution video, pictures
New functions come from new components
Compasses, gyroscopes, voice recognition
Finger-print scanners, near-field communication
16. For the first iPhone
What Levels of Performance and cost
were needed in each Component
before the iPhone was economically
feasible?
Touch Screen and Overall Display
DRAM and Flash Memory
Microprocessors
Can we use such an analysis to better
understand the future?
Let’s look at flash memory
17. The 4GB iPhone could store
760 songs, 4000 pictures (4 megapixel JPEG),
four hours of video, or 100 apps/games, or
some combination of them
Equal usage
190 songs
1000 pictures
one hour of video
25 apps/games
Was 4GB of flash memory necessary, or would
less have been sufficient?
18. The Average User Downloaded 58 Apps or a Significant
Fraction of Memory Available in 4GB Phone
19. Sensitivity Analysis of Flash Memory Price
Cost of iPhone 5 varied from $207 to $238 depending
on flash memory capacity
16GB, 32GB, or 64GB
For iPhone 4s, costs range from $196 to $254 for same
range in flash memory
For iPhone 3GS, 16GB of flash memory are $24 thus
suggesting costs for same change in capacity would
range from $179 to $251
In percentage terms, same changes in flash memory
capacity led to increase of 40% in iPhone 3GS and
increase of only 15% in iPhone 5
20. Interpretation of Previous Slides
Improvements in flash memory were
essential for the iPhone to become
economically feasible
Similar analyses could be done for
microprocessors and displays
And would probably show similar results
Let’s now look at the iPad
21. Measure iPad iPad2 iPad3 iPad4 iPad Air iPad Air 2
Operating System 5.1.1 iOS 8
System on Chip Apple A4 Apple A5 Apple A5X Apple A6X Apple A7 Apple A8X
Application
Processor
1 GHz ARM
Cortex-A8
1 GHz dual-core ARM
Cortex-A9
1.4 GHz dual-
core Apple
Swift
1.4 GHz dual-
core Apple
Cyclone
1.5 GHz tri-
core
Graphics Processor PowerVR
SGX535
Dual-core
PowerVR
SGX543MP2
Quad-core
PowerVR
SGX543MP4
Quad-core
PowerVR
SGX554MP4
Quad-core
PowerVR
G6430
Octa-core
PowerVR
GXA6850
Flash Memory 16, 32, or 64 GB 16, 32, 64, or 128 GB 16, 64, 128 GB
DRAM 256 MB 512 MB 1 GB 2GB
Display 132 ppi 264 ppi
Camera resolution,
video speed, digital
zoom
None .7 MP, 30fps
5 times
5 MP, 30fps,
5 times
8 MP, 30 fps
3 times
Wireless without
cellular
Wi-Fi 802.11a/b/g/n;
Bluetooth 2.1
Wi-Fi 802.11a/b/g/n; Bluetooth 4.0 802.11a/b/g
/n/ac
Bluetooth 4.0
Wireless w/cellular Above plus 2G EDGE, 3G
HSDPA
Above and left plus LTE
Geolocation
without cellular
WiFi, Apple location database Previous plus
iBeacon
Geolocation with
cellular
Assisted GPS, Apple
databases, cellular network
Previous plus GLONASS (Russian-based GPS) Previous plus
iBeacon
Other Accelerometer,
light sensor,
magnetometer
Previous plus gyroscope Previous plus
barometer
Evolution of iPad in Terms of Measures of Performance
22. Summary of Previous Slide for iPad
More memory enables more data to be saved
Songs, pictures
Videos, games, apps
Faster processors means
More sophisticated apps, games and cellular networks, the
latter enables higher speeds
Higher resolution audio, displays, video, cameras
Faster and newer WiFi and Bluetooth chips
Mean higher data speeds
Better displays means higher resolution video, pictures
New functions come from new components
Accelerometers, light sensors, magnetometers, compasses,
gyroscopes and barometers
23. For the first iPad
What Levels of Performance and cost were
needed in each Component before the iPad
was economically feasible?
Touch Screen and Overall Display
Memory
Microprocessors
Can we use such an analysis to better
understand the future?
Let’s look at display, memory and
microprocessors
24. For the first iPad (2)
Touch Screen and Overall Display
Much larger and thus more expensive than one for
iPhone – probably was a bottleneck
But falling cost (12%), price 20%) of displays
Memory and microprocessors
Cost of iPad Air varies from $274 to $331 depending on
flash memory capacity (16GB, 32GB, 64GB) and
whether cellular processor is included
For earlier iPads
From $316 to $406
From $229 to $346
Percentages for memory and microprocessors drop
from 50% in first iPad to 21% in iPad Air
Did the first iPad need a cellular processor?
25. Interpretation of Previous
Slides
Improvements in displays, memory and
microprocessors were essential for the
iPad to become economically feasible
Let’s now think about the future – for
smart phones, what will be next?
26. For Smart Phones, What will be Next?
What components are experiencing rapid
improvements?
Can they tell us something about the “next big thing”
Improvements will probably continue in
Microprocessor, memory and other ICs
MEMS, bio-electronic ICs
Displays including flexible ones
Lasers, LEDs, photo-sensors, and other sensors
Speeds of cellular networks and WiFi
New forms of user interfaces (gesture, touch)
Open source software is becoming more available
27. What will be Next? (1)
New features, perhaps for high-end phones
Health care: phones monitors health (heart rate,
brain wave, blood pressure) using sensors
Home automation: use phones to control homes
Better navigation, sharing economy
Engineering assistant: environmental data
(temperature, pressure, air and water quality) and
also data from satellites
Different phones for different applications?
One phone does everything?
Multiple segments each with multiple applications
for phone?
Specific phones must be defined for specific users
28. What will be Next? (2)
New forms of computers
Wearable computing?
Smart watches?
Wrist displays?
Google glasses or something
similar?
29. Type of
Product
# of
Data
Point
Memory Micro-
Proc-
essor
Display Cam-
era
Connect-
ivity,
Sensors
Bat-
tery
Power
Mgmt
Phones 23 15% 22% 22% 8.2% 7.9% 2.3% 3.8%
Includes
WiFi
Contribution of “Standard Components” to Costs
of Selected Electronic Products
Can any of these components be eliminated?
Are there improvements in components and/or
technological trends that can help us think
about components to eliminate?
30. What will be Next? (3)
Can microprocessors and memory be eliminated to
create low-end phones that bypass network
providers (SingTel, StarHub)
Lower cost phones
Lower cost services
Cellular processors are eliminated as WiFi becomes
more available?
If WiFi is main connection and it works good enough
Can we reduce memory capacity?
Can we reduced performance of application processor?
Lower resolution cameras, displays, and other
components will also reduce costs
How might open source software enable lower costs?
31. Recent Article in New York Times
Cellphone Start-Ups Use Wi-Fi First to Handle Calls
and Take On Rivals
Two start-ups are trying to lower cellphone costs by
relying on Wi-Fi routers, and now some of the
bigger companies are looking to follow their lead.
http://nyti.ms/1AFMiFW
Great Source on WiFi Diffusion:
Number of world WiFi access points is 56 million
http://www.ipass.com/wifi-growth-map/
32. Can Google’s Project Ara provide Users with Better
Choices about Inexpensive Phones that have less features?
Modular phone
that enables
Users to Choose
Specific Modules
33. Will Apple be
Disrupted?
Apple has
highest prices
Does it Deserve
High Prices?
Will Low-End
WiFi Phones
Impact
Apple or other
phone
suppliers?
34. How About the Other 8 Products?
How might improvements in electronic components
change the other products that were briefly mentioned?
Tablet computers, eBook Readers
Game consoles, MP3 Players
Televisions, Internet TVs, Google glasses
All of these products are being improved with new
electronic components
WiFi may eliminate cellular processors in tablet computers
and reduce memory in game consoles
What will these products become?
Will they become more important in our lives?
Or will they disappear as their functions are absorbed
by other products?
35. How About Still Other Products (2)
Improvements in computers: logistics, free routing if aircraft,
pre-fab housing, computer assisted-doctors, Big Data, online
universities
Improvements in ICs, MEMS, GPS, other electronic components:
Smart homes, Internet of Things, Drones, Autonomous Vehicles,
Sharing economy including shared bicycles, GPS for buses
Improvements in displays and ICs; rolled displays, wrist displays,
wearable devices
Improvements in microprocessors and power electronics: cheaper
electric vehicle chargers that enable more frequent recharging
and thus reduce the need for high energy storage batteries
Many of these products can contribute towards sustainability
These things and more are discussed in MT5009, Analyzing Hi-Tech
Opportunities (for more info, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations)
36. Comments on Learning and Invention
When standard components contribute much
more to costs than do assembly operations and
they experience rapid improvements
Factory floor learning and process R&D for assembly
are not important sources of improvements
Product design opportunities are also limited since
most of the components are standard ones
Demand for the standard components is driven by
multiple products and thus the volumes for a new
product have little impact on the standard
components
Instead, learning revolves around the standard
components and how to use them to introduce
better products
37. Comments on Learning and Invention (2)
Contrast this with automobiles
Discussions of automobiles emphasize speed,
acceleration, fuel economy, smoothness,
quietness, and interior and exterior aesthetics,
measures
These depend more on overall product and
process design than any one component
Even speed, acceleration, and fuel economy
depend on many design factors
and not just the engine design since they involve
the aerodynamics and weight of the overall
automobile
38. Comments on Learning and Invention (3)
When standard components contribute much
more to costs than do assembly operations
and they experience rapid improvements
Monitoring these components is essential for
“inventing” and developing new products
What components are in the new product?
What levels of performance and cost are
needed in this product and in its components
before the product will become economically
feasible?