LED lighting has improved dramatically due to two mechanisms: creating new materials that better exploit electroluminescence, and geometrical scaling. New semiconductor materials like GaInN emit different colors with higher efficiency. Larger wafer sizes and production equipment lower costs. LED efficiency has increased from 0.0001 to over 100 lumens per watt, costs have plummeted, and the Department of Energy projects further increases. Both smaller LED sizes and larger scales drive these ongoing improvements.
Predicting Breakthrough Technologies: An empirical analysis of past predictio...Jeffrey Funk
These slides empirically analyzes predictions made by MIT’s Technology Review. Technology Review has produced a list of 10 breakthrough technologies for many of the last 10 years (2001, 2002-2014). These predictions are based on conversations with academic experts from a variety of scientific disciplines. To analyze these predictions, I gathered recent market sales data for the predictions done in 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2005. I found that many of these technologies still have small markets (<$1Billion), markets that are smaller than technologies not chosen by Technology Review such as smart phones, Cloud Computing. Tablet Computers. Big Data, Social Networking, and eBooks/eReaders. The slides then use theories of cognition to explain these relatively poor predictions and propose an alternative way of predicting breakthrough technologies
What enables improvements in cost and performance to occur?Jeffrey Funk
These slides discuss the design changes that enable improvements in cost and performance to occur. The main types of design changes that lead to improvements are: 1) reductions in scale (e.g., transistors and Moore's Law); 2) creation of new materials; 3) increases in scale (e.g., internal combustion engines, oil tankers, production equipment). Some technologies experience these improvements directly and some indirectly through the impact of components on higher-level systems.
How and When do New Technologies Become Economically FeasibleJeffrey Funk
These slides contrast two processes by which new technologies become economically feasible. Some technologies become economically feasible as advances in science facilitate the creation of new concepts and improvements in the resulting technologies. Other technologies become economically feasible as improvements in electronic components (e.g., Moore's Law), smart phones, and the Internet experience improvements.
MIT's Poor Predictions About TechnologyJeffrey Funk
These slides analyze the 40 predictions of breakthrough technologies that were made betwee 2001 and 2005 by MIT’s Technology Review. Most of them are science-based technologies, and none of the science-based technologies predicted between 2001 and 2005 have markets larger than $10 billion. Among its 40 predictions, only four have markets larger than $10 billion and these technologies have little to do with recent advances in science and instead were enabled by Moore’s Law and improvements in Internet services. MIT also missed many technologies that have achieved market sales greater than $100 billion such as smart phones, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things and other technologies with sales greater than $50 billion such as e-commerce for apparel and tablet computers.
Creative destrution, Economic Feasibility, and Creative Destruction: The Case...Jeffrey Funk
This paper shows how new forms of electronic products and services such as smart phones, tablet computers and ride sharing become economically feasible and thus candidates for commercialization and creative destruction as improvements in standard electronic components such as microprocessors, memory, and displays occur. Unlike the predominant viewpoint in which commercialization is reached as advances in science facilitate design changes that enable improvements in performance and cost, most new forms of electronic products and services are not invented in a scientific sense and the cost and performance of them are primarily driven by improvements in standard components. They become candidates for commercialization as the cost and performance of standard components reach the levels necessary for the final products and services to have the required levels of performance and cost. This suggests that when managers, policy makers, engineers, and entrepreneurs consider the choice and timing of commercializing new electronic products and services, they should understand the composition of new technologies, the impact of components on a technology's cost, performance and design, and the rates of improvement in the components.
Sources of Innovative Opportunity and Mass-Customization – An Analysis of ...Mikko Ahonen
A short 15-minutes presentation in the 5th World Conference on Mass Customization & Personalization MCPC2009 in Helsinki, Finland.
The actual research paper can be found at: http://beyondcreativity.blogs.com/mblog/2009/09/masscustomization-mcpc2009-emf-health-business-in-drucker-framework.html
This talk, given at Google on June 6, 2012, summarizes what we know about energy use and information technology in a clear and understandable way. The person preceding me on stage was former Vice President Al Gore, so the pressure was on! I think I delivered, but you be the judge.
Technology Change, Creative Destruction, and Economic FeasibiltyJeffrey Funk
After showing that the costs of most electronic products are from electronic components, these slides show how the iPhone and iPad became economically feasible through improvements in microprocessors, flash memory, and displays.
Predicting Breakthrough Technologies: An empirical analysis of past predictio...Jeffrey Funk
These slides empirically analyzes predictions made by MIT’s Technology Review. Technology Review has produced a list of 10 breakthrough technologies for many of the last 10 years (2001, 2002-2014). These predictions are based on conversations with academic experts from a variety of scientific disciplines. To analyze these predictions, I gathered recent market sales data for the predictions done in 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2005. I found that many of these technologies still have small markets (<$1Billion), markets that are smaller than technologies not chosen by Technology Review such as smart phones, Cloud Computing. Tablet Computers. Big Data, Social Networking, and eBooks/eReaders. The slides then use theories of cognition to explain these relatively poor predictions and propose an alternative way of predicting breakthrough technologies
What enables improvements in cost and performance to occur?Jeffrey Funk
These slides discuss the design changes that enable improvements in cost and performance to occur. The main types of design changes that lead to improvements are: 1) reductions in scale (e.g., transistors and Moore's Law); 2) creation of new materials; 3) increases in scale (e.g., internal combustion engines, oil tankers, production equipment). Some technologies experience these improvements directly and some indirectly through the impact of components on higher-level systems.
How and When do New Technologies Become Economically FeasibleJeffrey Funk
These slides contrast two processes by which new technologies become economically feasible. Some technologies become economically feasible as advances in science facilitate the creation of new concepts and improvements in the resulting technologies. Other technologies become economically feasible as improvements in electronic components (e.g., Moore's Law), smart phones, and the Internet experience improvements.
MIT's Poor Predictions About TechnologyJeffrey Funk
These slides analyze the 40 predictions of breakthrough technologies that were made betwee 2001 and 2005 by MIT’s Technology Review. Most of them are science-based technologies, and none of the science-based technologies predicted between 2001 and 2005 have markets larger than $10 billion. Among its 40 predictions, only four have markets larger than $10 billion and these technologies have little to do with recent advances in science and instead were enabled by Moore’s Law and improvements in Internet services. MIT also missed many technologies that have achieved market sales greater than $100 billion such as smart phones, cloud computing, and the Internet of Things and other technologies with sales greater than $50 billion such as e-commerce for apparel and tablet computers.
Creative destrution, Economic Feasibility, and Creative Destruction: The Case...Jeffrey Funk
This paper shows how new forms of electronic products and services such as smart phones, tablet computers and ride sharing become economically feasible and thus candidates for commercialization and creative destruction as improvements in standard electronic components such as microprocessors, memory, and displays occur. Unlike the predominant viewpoint in which commercialization is reached as advances in science facilitate design changes that enable improvements in performance and cost, most new forms of electronic products and services are not invented in a scientific sense and the cost and performance of them are primarily driven by improvements in standard components. They become candidates for commercialization as the cost and performance of standard components reach the levels necessary for the final products and services to have the required levels of performance and cost. This suggests that when managers, policy makers, engineers, and entrepreneurs consider the choice and timing of commercializing new electronic products and services, they should understand the composition of new technologies, the impact of components on a technology's cost, performance and design, and the rates of improvement in the components.
Sources of Innovative Opportunity and Mass-Customization – An Analysis of ...Mikko Ahonen
A short 15-minutes presentation in the 5th World Conference on Mass Customization & Personalization MCPC2009 in Helsinki, Finland.
The actual research paper can be found at: http://beyondcreativity.blogs.com/mblog/2009/09/masscustomization-mcpc2009-emf-health-business-in-drucker-framework.html
This talk, given at Google on June 6, 2012, summarizes what we know about energy use and information technology in a clear and understandable way. The person preceding me on stage was former Vice President Al Gore, so the pressure was on! I think I delivered, but you be the judge.
Technology Change, Creative Destruction, and Economic FeasibiltyJeffrey Funk
After showing that the costs of most electronic products are from electronic components, these slides show how the iPhone and iPad became economically feasible through improvements in microprocessors, flash memory, and displays.
What does innovation today tell us about tomorrow?Jeffrey Funk
This paper was published in Issues in Science and Technology. It distinguished between the Silicon Valley and science-based process of technology change. It shows that more new products and services are emerging from the latter than the former.
Calit2 – Increasing Interaction Between Industry and University ResearchersLarry Smarr
08.03.31
Presentation
Panel on Best Practices in University-Industry Research Collaborations 2008 Engineering Deans Institute (EDI)
“Strategic University-Industry Partnerships for Innovation”
American Society for Engineering Education
University of California, San Diego
Title: Calit2 – Increasing Interaction Between Industry and University Researchers
La Jolla, CA
Energy storage innovation, both at micro and grid scale, is at the cusp of several major breakthroughs which are already impacting consumer electronics and autonomous transportation and several other consumer and industrial uses. Battery prices have come down significantly. Product options are available. With that comes commercial opportunities, policy challenges, industry disruption, new business models, and an array of new startups. What are some emerging energy storage technologies? Who are the players? What adjacent technologies are moving pieces in this game (IoT, cloud, EVs, utilities, distributed generation, transportation networks, mobility tech, sensors etc.). What will this world look like for industry, startups, governments, and consumers? How can existing infrastructure evolve to enable making the most of such breakthroughs? What are the regulatory obstacles in the five key markets where energy storage might emerge first (EU, Australia, Latin-America, South Africa, and USA)?
Abstract
The number of internet-of-things (IoT) connected devices is increasing daily, providing new opportunities for information access and interactivity. This talk will focus on work developing low-cost, IoT systems for social good using a user-centered design approach with a focus on applications in the built environment. We will discuss how such systems can empower end-users through access to new information, provide services that alleviate their daily challenges, and discuss future directions for these increasingly ubiquitous technologies.
Bio:
Matthew Louis Mauriello is a postdoctoral scholar at Stanford University. He holds a Ph.D. in Computer Science from the University of Maryland, where he was advised by Jon E. Froehlich, and an M.S./B.S. in Computer Science and Applied Mathematics from the State University of New York at Albany. His research in the area of Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) focuses on applying user-centered design and computer science techniques to social good problems, emphasizing those facing our health, education, environmental, and computing systems. His work has been published in top-tier venues for HCI and Ubiquitous Computing with several receiving awards for being in the top 5% of submissions at venues including the international SIGCHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI)—the premier venue for HCI research.
Adapting to Thrive in a World of Relentless ChangeSteve Rader
This was the opening keynote for the Fintech Solutions Summit on June 16, 2020. This presentation was provided by Crowd Resources Consulting LLC, Steve Rader - CEO/Founder. You can book Steve to speak at your event at: https://creative.lifehappenspro.org/speaker-steve-rader/
or
https://sites.google.com/crowdresources-consulting.com/home/
Two competing visions for the future in a post-PC era - mobile, represented by Michael AM Davies from Endeavour Partners, and Enchanted Objects, represented by David Rose. Big thanks to Jennifer Lum, Adam Laughlin, and Ari Adler from IDEO
SGIP hosted an eMeeting focused on Stakeholder Category 14: R&D and Academia.
Leading experts presented on the impact of Smart Grid research on future products and services and how research contributes to new solutions for interoperability for the Smart Grid ecosystem. The panel was moderated by Steve Widergren, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Joining Steve as panelists were Don Von Dollen, Electrical Power Research Institute; Michael Cohen, MITRE; Jason Veneman, MITRE; and Dennis Ray, Power Systems Engineering Research Center.
An appraisal on the various SGIP technical activities was presented, including updates on transactive energy, cybersecurity and Smart Grid Testing and Certification Committee and Smart Grid Implementation Methods Committee activities. An update was also given on a new Catalog of Standards entry to be voted on by SGIP Participating member organizations.
- See more at: http://www.sgip.org/sgip-presents-how-todays-power-grid-integration-choices-impact-figure-smart-grid-deployments-emeeting-on-september-26-2013/#sthash.8fzknMkc.dpuf
The I-CAN Tool and Managing Information and Communication Technology (ICT) In...Waqas Tariq
Australia, while being a large and eager consumer of innovative and cutting edge Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), continues to struggle to remain a leader in Technological Innovation. This paper has two main contributions to address certain aspects of this complex issue. The first being the current findings of an ongoing research project on Innovation Management in the Australian Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) sector. The major issues being considered by the project include: investigation of the possible inherent entrepreneurial nature of ICT; how to foster ICT innovation; and examination of the inherent difficulties currently found within the ICT industry of Australia in regards to supporting the development of innovative and creative ideas. The second major contribution is details of the I.-C.A.N. (Innovation by Collaborative Anonymous Networking) software application tool created and evolving in our research group. I-CAN, besides having a positive reinforcement acronym, is aimed at facilitating productive collaborative innovation in an Australian workplace. Such a work environment is frequently subjected to cultural influences such as the ‘tall poppy syndrome’ and ‘negative’ or ‘unconstructive’ peer-pressure. There influences are frequently seen as inhibitors to employee participation, entrepreneurship and innovation.
Now in its eighth year, this awards program gathers the Connecticut technology community to recognize women in the workforce who are innovators, role models and leaders in the technology, science and engineering fields. Students at both the high school and college level are also honored for their studies and accomplishments.
For more info about the program, visit: http://www.ct.org/Women_of_Innovation.asp
Sustainable computing is a new pathway in the research field. because it is clear the growth of ICT industries globally is rapidly poisoning our environment. So ultimately we need to give attention to this for more Sustainable computing solutions.
What does innovation today tell us about tomorrow?Jeffrey Funk
This paper was published in Issues in Science and Technology. It distinguished between the Silicon Valley and science-based process of technology change. It shows that more new products and services are emerging from the latter than the former.
Calit2 – Increasing Interaction Between Industry and University ResearchersLarry Smarr
08.03.31
Presentation
Panel on Best Practices in University-Industry Research Collaborations 2008 Engineering Deans Institute (EDI)
“Strategic University-Industry Partnerships for Innovation”
American Society for Engineering Education
University of California, San Diego
Title: Calit2 – Increasing Interaction Between Industry and University Researchers
La Jolla, CA
Energy storage innovation, both at micro and grid scale, is at the cusp of several major breakthroughs which are already impacting consumer electronics and autonomous transportation and several other consumer and industrial uses. Battery prices have come down significantly. Product options are available. With that comes commercial opportunities, policy challenges, industry disruption, new business models, and an array of new startups. What are some emerging energy storage technologies? Who are the players? What adjacent technologies are moving pieces in this game (IoT, cloud, EVs, utilities, distributed generation, transportation networks, mobility tech, sensors etc.). What will this world look like for industry, startups, governments, and consumers? How can existing infrastructure evolve to enable making the most of such breakthroughs? What are the regulatory obstacles in the five key markets where energy storage might emerge first (EU, Australia, Latin-America, South Africa, and USA)?
Abstract
The number of internet-of-things (IoT) connected devices is increasing daily, providing new opportunities for information access and interactivity. This talk will focus on work developing low-cost, IoT systems for social good using a user-centered design approach with a focus on applications in the built environment. We will discuss how such systems can empower end-users through access to new information, provide services that alleviate their daily challenges, and discuss future directions for these increasingly ubiquitous technologies.
Bio:
Matthew Louis Mauriello is a postdoctoral scholar at Stanford University. He holds a Ph.D. in Computer Science from the University of Maryland, where he was advised by Jon E. Froehlich, and an M.S./B.S. in Computer Science and Applied Mathematics from the State University of New York at Albany. His research in the area of Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) focuses on applying user-centered design and computer science techniques to social good problems, emphasizing those facing our health, education, environmental, and computing systems. His work has been published in top-tier venues for HCI and Ubiquitous Computing with several receiving awards for being in the top 5% of submissions at venues including the international SIGCHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems (CHI)—the premier venue for HCI research.
Adapting to Thrive in a World of Relentless ChangeSteve Rader
This was the opening keynote for the Fintech Solutions Summit on June 16, 2020. This presentation was provided by Crowd Resources Consulting LLC, Steve Rader - CEO/Founder. You can book Steve to speak at your event at: https://creative.lifehappenspro.org/speaker-steve-rader/
or
https://sites.google.com/crowdresources-consulting.com/home/
Two competing visions for the future in a post-PC era - mobile, represented by Michael AM Davies from Endeavour Partners, and Enchanted Objects, represented by David Rose. Big thanks to Jennifer Lum, Adam Laughlin, and Ari Adler from IDEO
SGIP hosted an eMeeting focused on Stakeholder Category 14: R&D and Academia.
Leading experts presented on the impact of Smart Grid research on future products and services and how research contributes to new solutions for interoperability for the Smart Grid ecosystem. The panel was moderated by Steve Widergren, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Joining Steve as panelists were Don Von Dollen, Electrical Power Research Institute; Michael Cohen, MITRE; Jason Veneman, MITRE; and Dennis Ray, Power Systems Engineering Research Center.
An appraisal on the various SGIP technical activities was presented, including updates on transactive energy, cybersecurity and Smart Grid Testing and Certification Committee and Smart Grid Implementation Methods Committee activities. An update was also given on a new Catalog of Standards entry to be voted on by SGIP Participating member organizations.
- See more at: http://www.sgip.org/sgip-presents-how-todays-power-grid-integration-choices-impact-figure-smart-grid-deployments-emeeting-on-september-26-2013/#sthash.8fzknMkc.dpuf
The I-CAN Tool and Managing Information and Communication Technology (ICT) In...Waqas Tariq
Australia, while being a large and eager consumer of innovative and cutting edge Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), continues to struggle to remain a leader in Technological Innovation. This paper has two main contributions to address certain aspects of this complex issue. The first being the current findings of an ongoing research project on Innovation Management in the Australian Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) sector. The major issues being considered by the project include: investigation of the possible inherent entrepreneurial nature of ICT; how to foster ICT innovation; and examination of the inherent difficulties currently found within the ICT industry of Australia in regards to supporting the development of innovative and creative ideas. The second major contribution is details of the I.-C.A.N. (Innovation by Collaborative Anonymous Networking) software application tool created and evolving in our research group. I-CAN, besides having a positive reinforcement acronym, is aimed at facilitating productive collaborative innovation in an Australian workplace. Such a work environment is frequently subjected to cultural influences such as the ‘tall poppy syndrome’ and ‘negative’ or ‘unconstructive’ peer-pressure. There influences are frequently seen as inhibitors to employee participation, entrepreneurship and innovation.
Now in its eighth year, this awards program gathers the Connecticut technology community to recognize women in the workforce who are innovators, role models and leaders in the technology, science and engineering fields. Students at both the high school and college level are also honored for their studies and accomplishments.
For more info about the program, visit: http://www.ct.org/Women_of_Innovation.asp
Sustainable computing is a new pathway in the research field. because it is clear the growth of ICT industries globally is rapidly poisoning our environment. So ultimately we need to give attention to this for more Sustainable computing solutions.
The crucial point to contemplate during restorative dentistry procedures with composite resins is to obtain satisfactory restorations with an adequate photo polymerization technique. This procedure requires sufficient light energy intensity and an adequate wavelength in order to activate the photo initiator within these materials, which will react with the reducer agent to form free radicals and initiate the polymerization process.
Fast-Switching Structural Color to Revolutionize Low-Power DisplaysAndrew Kortyna
Unlike high-power consuming conventional displays that emit light, reflective displays or the so-called “electronic paper” use ambient light and consume much less energy.
They lack behind, however, in color range and switching speed. Thus, electronic paper technology has been used predominantly for ebook readers and labels that are less demanding of these features.
A group of English and Swedish scholars joined forces to overcome the setbacks. In research published in August 2021 in Advanced Materials, a weekly peer-reviewed scientific journal, they introduced a structural color technology that successfully achieved favorable video speed and image quality.
The wide color spectrum in conventional displays results from the combination of red, green, and blue (RGB)-filtered subpixels. Under the leadership of Andreas Dahlin from the Department of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering of the Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg, Sweden, the researchers explored the potential of structural colors to generate the RGB subpixels in reflective displays.
Conventional color is a result of the absorption of light. If an object appears red, it means a dye or pigment absorbs all other colors besides red. Structural color, however, results from the reflection of light from complex colorless nanostructures. Some examples in the natural world include butterflies’ wings and opals. Colors produced by chemical pigments remain unchanged regardless of the angle from which they are viewed. The colors produced by the multi-layered nanostructures, on the other hand, are iridescent; they appear different from different angles. Thus, making structural colors highly suitable for creating colored subpixels.
It is important to note that the team did not use the widely popular liquid crystals. Instead, they used a broadband-absorbing polarization-insensitive electrochromic polymer to sustain a high level of reflectivity.
The researchers started with thin alumina or aluminum films, on top of which they arranged nanoparticles and added an ultrathin gold coating. The created metamaterials boasted a large surface area and increased optical contrast. To regulate the brightness and visibility, the team finished with an opacity-changing conjugate polymer top coating.
The effects of ZnO particles on the color homogeneity of phosphor-converted h...IJECEIAES
Color homogeneity is one of the goals to continuously improve WLED. Among the methods for enhancing the color uniformity of WLEDs, improving scattering in phosphor layer is considered to be the most effective. In this paper, ZnO is used for that purpose. The results show that ZnO particle size significantly affects scattering in the phosphor layer, which is a vital factor to analyze scattering, scattering sand surface, scattering coefficient and scattered phase function C sca (D, λ), μ ( λ ) and ρ(θ, λ). In addition, the concentration of ZnO was also analyzed with values from 2% to 22%. Color homogeneity depends not only on size but also on the concentration of added ZnO. Therefore, color homogeneity control is the control of ZnO size and concentration. The proposed result is 10% ZnO for the highest lumen of LED. With 14% and 500 nm of ZnO particles, ΔCCT reaches the lowest. Depending on the production needs, manufacturers can choose the most appropriate way. However, with both required lumen and ΔCCT, 14% ZnO is suitable for ZnO sizes. sca
As efficiency and power continue to increase, laser diodes will continue to replace traditional technologies, changing the way things are made and contributing to new things.
Traditionally, economists believe that technological advancement is a gradual process. Recently, more emphasis has been placed on the role of some disruptive innovations. These innovations, known as General Technology (GPT), refer to “deep new ideas or technologies that have the potential to make a significant impact on many economic sectors.” Clear examples of GPT are steam engines, power and integrated circuits.
Utilizing CaCO 3 , CaF 2 , SiO 2 , and TiO 2 particles to enhance color hom...IJECEIAES
The chromatic homogeneity and luminous efficiency are two crucial elements for determining a high-quality phosphor-converted LEDs (pc-LEDs). Thus, this paper provides essential information in choosing the particles to enhance lighting properties of high performance pc-LEDs. Scattering enhancement particles (SEP) such as CaCO 3 , CaF 2 , SiO 2 , and TiO 2 , are combined with yellow phosphor Y 3 Al 5 O 12 :Ce 3+ and applied to the lighting devices. Initially, optical simulations are carried out with the support of LightTools program. Next, the Mie-theory is applied to calculate and confirm the results. The calculation subjects are SEPs scattering properties within the band 455 -595 nm. The scattering results of TiO 2 suggest it is the optimal choice for pc-LEDs color quality in comparison to the other SEPs; however, it causes the luminous flux to decrease significantly along with the increase in its concentration. Besides, with the addition of SiO 2 grains, we can accomplish higher lumen output at all particle sizes. Meanwhile, the application of 30% CaCO 3 can decreas the CCT deviation by 620 K making CaCO 3 the potential particle to be selected for chromatic quality and light output enhancement of pc-LEDs.
Blue LED as we all know is the discovery of the century. Its applications spans most of our needs in day to day life and it is one of the greatest innovations in the history of mankind for which it was given nobel.
Similar to Lighting, Lasers, and Their Econoimcs (20)
The "Unproductive Bubble:" Unprofitable startups, small markets for new digit...Jeffrey Funk
This article will show that the current bubble has produced few profitable startups and involved few if any new digital technologies, nor technologies involving recent scientific advances, and thus it is unlikely that much that is productive will be left once the dust settles. There is a growth in old technologies such as e-commerce but little in new technologies such as AI. The startup losses are also much larger than in the past suggesting that fewer of today’s startups will still exist in a few years than those of 20 years ago.
Commercialization of Science: What has changed and what can be done to revit...Jeffrey Funk
This paper several changes that I believe may have reduced America’s ability to develop science-based technologies. I make no claims about the completeness. I begin with the growth of university research and then cover several changes it engendered, including an obsession with papers, hyper-specialization of researchers, and huge bureaucracies, also using the words of Nobel Laureates and other scientists to make my points.
2000, 2008, 2022: It is hard to avoid the parallels How Big Will the 2022 S...Jeffrey Funk
These slides summarize the recent share price declines for new startups, declines that are driven by huge annual and cumulative losses and it contrasts today's bubble with those of 2000 and 2008. It shows that today's bubble involves bigger startup losses than those of the 2000 bubble and that the markets of new technologies have not grown to the extent that those of past decades did. Many hedge funds, VCs, and pension funds are heavily invested in these startups. Some of them are also highly leveraged.
The Slow Growth of AI: The State of AI and Its ApplicationsJeffrey Funk
The failure of IBM Watson, disappointments of self-driving vehicles, slow diffusion of medical imaging, small markets for AI software, and scorching criticisms of Google’s research papers provide evidence for hype and disappointment in AI, which is consistent with negative social impact of Big Data and AI algorithms. There are some successes, but they are much smaller than the predictions, with virtual applications (advertising, news, retail sales, finance and e-commerce) having the largest success, building from previous Big Data usage in the past. Looking forward, AI will augment not replace workers just as past technologies did on farms, factories, and offices. Robotic process automation and natural language processing are likely to play important roles in this augmentation with RPA automating repetitive work, natural language processing summarizing information, and RPA also putting the information in the right bins for engineers, accountants, researchers, journalists, and lawyers. Big challenges include reductions in training time depending on faster computers, exponentially rising demands on computers for high accuracies in image recognition, a slowdown in supercomputer improvements, datasets riddled with errors, and reproducibility problems.
Behind the Slow Growth of AI: Failed Moonshots, Unprofitable Startups, Error...Jeffrey Funk
Smaller than expected markets, money-losing startups, failure of Watson, slow-diffusion of self-driving vehicles and medical imaging, and scorching criticisms of Google’s research papers are some of the examples used to characterize the hype of AI. There are some successes, but they are much smaller than the predictions, with advertising, news, and e-commerce having the biggest success stories. Looking forward, #AI will augment not replace workers just as past technologies did on farms, factories, and offices. Robotic process automation and natural language processing are likely to play important roles in this augmentation with #RPA automating repetitive work, natural language processing categorizing information, and RPA also putting the information in the right bins for engineers, accountants, researchers, journalists, and lawyers. The big challenges include exponentially rising demands on computers for high accuracies in images, a slowdown in supercomputer improvements, datasets riddled with errors, and reproducibility problems. See either this podcast or my slides, whose URL is shown in comments. #technolgy #innovation #venturecapital #ipo #artificialintelligence
The Troubled Future of Startups and Innovation: Webinar for London FuturistsJeffrey Funk
These slides show how the most successful startups of today (Unicorns) are not doing as well as the most successful of 20 to 50 years ago. Today's startups are doing worse in terms of time to profitability and time to top 100 market capitalization status. Only one Unicorn founded since 2000 has achieved top 100 market capitalization status while six, nine, and eight from the 70s, 80s, and 90s did so. It is also unlikely that few or any of today's Unicorns will achieve this status because their market capitalizations are too low, share prices increases since IPO are too small, and profits remain elusive. Only 14 of 45 had share price increases greater than the Nasdaq and only 6 of 45 had profits in 2019. The reasons for the worse performance of today's Unicorns than those of 20 to 50 years ago include no breakthrough technologies, hyper-growth strategies, and the targeting of regulated industries. The slides conclude with speculations on why few breakthrough technologies, including science-based technologies from universities are emerging. We need to think back to the division of labor that existed a half a century ago.
Where are the Next Googles and Amazons? They should be here by nowJeffrey Funk
Great startups aren’t being founded like they were in the 1970s (Microsoft, Apple, Oracle, Genentech, Home Depot, EMC), 1980s (Cisco, Dell, Adobe, Qualcomm, Amgen, Gilead Sciences), and 1990s (Amazon, Google, Netflix, Salesforce.com, PayPal). All of these startups reached the top 100 for market capitalization, but Facebook is the only startup founded since 2000 which has entered the top 100. Tesla and Uber are often discussed as highly successful but they have many times higher cumulative losses than did Amazon at its time of peak losses and neither has had a profitable year despite being older than Amazon was when it achieved profits. Furthermore, few of the recent Unicorn IPOs have experienced shareprice increases greater than those of the Nasdaq (14 of 45), only 3 of these 14 have profits, and only six of them have a
market capitalization over $30 (Zoom), $20 (Square), and $10 billion (Twilio, DocuSign, Okta). America’s venture capital system isn’t working as well as it once did, and the coronavirus will make things worse before the VC system gets better.
Start-up losses are mounting and innovation is slowing, but venture capitalists, entrepreneurs, consultants, university researchers, and business schools are hyping new technologies more than ever before. This hype is facilitated by changes in online media, including the rise of social media. This paper describes how the professional incentives of experts and the changes in online media have increased hype and how this hype makes it harder for policy makers, managers, scientists, engineers, professors, and students to understand new technologies and make good decisions. We need less hype and more level-headed economic analysis and this paper describes how this economic analysis can be done. Here is a link to the journal, Issues in Science & Technology: www.issues.org
Irrational Exuberance: A Tech Crash is ComingJeffrey Funk
These slides apply Nobel Laureate Robert Schiller's concept of irrational exuberance (and a book) title to the current speculative bubble of 2019. Over investments in startups and a lack of profitability in them are finally starting to catch up with the venture capital industry and the tech sector that relies on it. Investments by US venture capitalists have risen about six times since 2001 causing the total invested in 2018 to exceed by 40% the peak of 2000, the last big year of the dotcom bubble. But the number of IPOs has never returned to the peak years of 1993 to 2000; only about 250 were carried out between 2015 and 2017 vs. about 1,200 between 1995 and 1997.
The reason is simple: startups are taking longer to go public because they are not profitable. Consider the data. The median time to IPO has risen from 2.8 years in 1998 to 7.7 years in 2016 and the ones going public are less profitable than they were in the past. Although only 22% of startups going public in 1980 were unprofitable, 82% were unprofitable in 2018. The same high percentages of unprofitability have only been achieved twice before, in 1998 and 1999 right before the dotcom bubble burst. Furthermore, startups that have recently done high profile IPOs such as Snap, Dropbox, Blue Apron, Fitbit, Trivago, Box, and Cloudera are still not profitable.
Ride Sharing, Congestion, and the Need for Real SharingJeffrey Funk
Current ride sharing services are not financially sustainable. Although they provide more convenience than do taxi services, they are experiencing massive losses because they have the same cost structure as do taxis and thus must compete through subsidies and lower wages. After all, they use the same vehicles, roads, and drivers, and only GPS algorithms and phones are new.
They also increase congestion. Just as more private vehicles or taxis on the road will increase congestion, more ride sharing vehicles also increase congestion.
These slides describe new ways to use the technologies of ride sharing to reduce congestion along with costs while at the same time keeping travel time low. This can be done through changing public transportation systems or allowing private companies to offer competing services. For instance, current bus services, whether they are private or public, need to use the algorithms, GPS, phones and other technologies of ride sharing to revise routes, schedules and the premises that currently underpin public transportation. There is no reason a bus should be certain size, stop every 200 meters, or follow the same route all day. Algorithms and phones enable new types of routes in which designers simultaneously minimize time travel and maximize number of passengers transported per vehicle.hour.
Using the percent of top managers in IPOs (initial public offering) as a proxy for an industry’s/technology’s scientific intensity, this paper shows that the percentage of IPOs and of venture capital financing for science-based technologies has been declining for decades. Second, the percentage of PhDs among the top managers in science intensive industries is also declining, suggesting that their scientific intensities are falling. Third, the age of these top managers rose during the same period suggesting that the importance of experiential knowledge has increased even as the importance of PhDs and thus educational knowledge has decreased. Fourth, the numbers of IPOs and of venture capital funding are not increasing for newer science-based industries such as superconductors, solar cells, nanotechnology, and GMOs. Fifth, there are extreme diseconomies of scale in the universities that produce the PhD-holding top managers, suggesting that universities are far less effective at doing research than are companies. These results provide a new understanding of science and technology, and they offer new prescriptions for reversing slowing productivity growth.
This paper addresses the types of knowledge that are needed in entrepreneurial firms using a unique data base of executives and directors for all IPOs filed between 1990 and 2010. Using highest educational degrees as a proxy for educational knowledge, it shows that 85% of those with PhDs are concentrated in the life sciences and ICT (information and communication technology) industries and second, that those in the ICT industries are concentrated at lower layers in a “digital stack” of industries, ranging from semiconductors and other electronics at the bottom layer to computing and Internet infrastructure at the middle layer and Internet content, commerce, and services in the top layer. Third, industries with fewer PhDs have more bachelor’s and MBA degrees suggesting that PhDs are being replaced by them and not M.S. degrees. Fourth, age is higher for industries with the most PhDs thus suggesting a greater need for experiential knowledge in industries with greater needs for educational knowledge. Fifth, the number of Nobel Prizes tracks industries with high fractions of PhDs.
beyond patents:scholars of innovation use patenting as an indicator of innova...Jeffrey Funk
This paper discusses the problems with using patents as a measure of innovation and papers as a measure of science. It also uses data to show the problems. for example, the number of patent applications and awards have grown by six times since 1984 while productivity growth has slowed.
These slides discuss how to put context back into learning. Farm and other work at home once provided a context for learning, but this context has become much weaker as work at home as mostly disappeared Students once learned mostly from parents because they worked on farms, fixed things at home, and prepared meals. These activities provided a "context" for school learning, a context that has been mostly lost. These slides discuss how this context can be put back into learning and the implications for the types of people best suited for teaching and the way to train them.
These slides show that the demand for most professions is growing steadily in spite of continued improvements in productivity enhancing tools for them. They also show that AI will have a largely incremental effect on the professions, in combination with Moore's Law, cloud computing, and Big Data. They do this accounting, legal, architects, journalists, and engineers.
Solow's Computer Paradox and the Impact of AIJeffrey Funk
These slides show why IT has not delivered large improvements in productivity and why new forms of IT like AI will also not deliver large improvements, except in selected sectors. The main reason is that the improvements in AI are over-hyped and because most sectors do not have large inefficiencies in the organization of people, machinery, and materials.
Designing Roads for AVs (autonomous vehicles)Jeffrey Funk
Autonomous vehicles (AVs) represent one of the most promising new technologies for smart cities and for humans in general. The problem is that cities will not realize the full benefits from AVs until roads are designed for them. Until this occurs, their main benefit will be the elimination of the driver and steering wheel, which will reduce the cost and increase the capacity of taxis; but even this impact will not occur for many years because of safety concerns. Thus, in the near term, the main benefit of AVs will be free time for the driver to do emails and other smart phone related tasks.
A better solution is to design roads for AVs or in other words, to constrain the environment for AVs in order to simplify the engineering problem for them. For example, designing roads so that all vehicles can be controlled by a combination of wireless communication, RFID tags, and magnets will reduce the cost of AVs and increase their benefits. Only AVs would be allowed on these roads, they are checked for autonomous capability at the entrance, and control is returned to the driver when an AV leaves the road. Existing cars can be retrofitted with wireless modules that enable cars to be controlled by a central system, thus enabling cars to travel closely together. The magnets and RFID tags create an invisible railway that keeps the AVs in their lanes while wireless communication is used for lane changing and exiting a highway (Chang et al, 2014; Le Quesne et al, 2014). These wireless modules, magnets and RFID tags will be much cheaper than the expensive LIDAR that is needed when AVs are mixed with conventional vehicles on a road.
The benefits from dedicating roads to AVs include higher vehicle densities, less congestion, faster travel times, and higher fuel efficiencies. These seemingly contradicting goals can be achieved because AVs can have shorter inter-vehicle distances even at high speeds thus enabling higher densities, lower congestion, and lower travel times. The less congestion and thus fewer instances of slow moving or stopped vehicles enable the vehicles to travel at those speeds at which higher fuel efficiencies can be achieved (Funk, 2015). In combination with new forms of multiple passenger ride sharing, the higher fuel efficiencies will also reduce carbon emissions and thus help fight climate change.
The challenge is to develop a robust system that can be easily deployed in various cities and that will be compatible with vehicles containing the proper subsystems. Such a system can be developed in much the same way that new cellular systems are developed and tested. Suppliers of mobile phone infrastructure, automobiles, sensors, LIDAR, 3D vision systems, and other components must work with city governments and universities to develop and test a robust architecture followed by the development of a detail design.
Moore’s Law is slowing, but more importantly the world is changing from PCs to smart phones and cloud computing where improvements continue to occur. Improvements are still occurring in other types of ICs such as wireless, GPUs, and 3D camera chips because they lag microprocessors and parallel processing is easier on them than on microprocessors. Data centers are also experiencing rapid improvements as changes in architecture are made, particularly for analyzing unstructured data, i.e., Big Data. These slides discuss the implications for new services in areas such as smart phones, software, and Big Data. The last one-third of the slides summarize alternatives to silicon and von Neumann.
These slides discuss Robert Gordon's recent book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth. He argues that growth was faster between 1870 and 1940 than between 1940 and 2010. Simply put, an American in 1870 would not have recognized life in 1940 but an American in 1940 would recognize life today. These slides discuss what would be needed to change these results and thus make the improvements since 1940 equivalent to those between 1870 and 1940
These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to show how the cost and performance of biometrics are improving rapidly, making many new applications possible, particularly for fingerprinting in phones. Improvements in cameras and other electronics are making optical, capacitive, and ultrasound sensors better. Improvements in microprocessors are making the matching algorithms operate faster and with higher accuracy. We expect biometrics to become widely used in the next few years beginning with smart phones and followed by automobiles, homes, and offices. Better biometrics in smart phones will promote security and mobile commerce.
Attending a job Interview for B1 and B2 Englsih learnersErika906060
It is a sample of an interview for a business english class for pre-intermediate and intermediate english students with emphasis on the speking ability.
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Cultivating and maintaining discipline within teams is a critical differentiator for successful organisations.
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Unveiling the Secrets How Does Generative AI Work.pdfSam H
At its core, generative artificial intelligence relies on the concept of generative models, which serve as engines that churn out entirely new data resembling their training data. It is like a sculptor who has studied so many forms found in nature and then uses this knowledge to create sculptures from his imagination that have never been seen before anywhere else. If taken to cyberspace, gans work almost the same way.
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As an Army veteran dedicated to lifelong learning, I bring a disciplined, strategic mindset to my pursuits. I am constantly expanding my knowledge to innovate and lead effectively. My journey is driven by a commitment to excellence, and to make a meaningful impact in the world.
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Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey throu...dylandmeas
Discover the innovative and creative projects that highlight my journey through Full Sail University. Below, you’ll find a collection of my work showcasing my skills and expertise in digital marketing, event planning, and media production.
Implicitly or explicitly all competing businesses employ a strategy to select a mix
of marketing resources. Formulating such competitive strategies fundamentally
involves recognizing relationships between elements of the marketing mix (e.g.,
price and product quality), as well as assessing competitive and market conditions
(i.e., industry structure in the language of economics).
2. Objectives
What are the important dimensions of performance
for lighting, lasers and their higher level systems?
What are the rates of improvement?
What drives these rapid rates of improvement?
Will these improvements continue?
What kinds of new systems will likely emerge from
the improvements in lighting and lasers?
What does this tell us about the future?
3. Session Technology
1 Objectives and overview of course
2 When do new technologies become economically feasible?
3 Two types of improvements: 1) Creating materials that
better exploit physical phenomena; 2) Geometrical scaling
4 Semiconductors, ICs, electronic systems
5 MEMS and Bio-electronic ICs
6 Lighting, Lasers, and Displays
7 DNA sequencing and Nanotechnology
8 Human-Computer Interfaces
9 Superconductivity and Solar Cells
10 Deepavali, NO CLASS
This is Fifth Session of MT5009
4. As Noted in Previous Session, Two main
mechanisms for improvements
Creating materials (and their associated processes)
that better exploit physical phenomenon
Geometrical scaling
Increases in scale
Reductions in scale
Some technologies directly experience improvements
while others indirectly experience them through
improvements in “components”
A summary of these ideas can be found in
1) forthcoming paper in California Management Review, What Drives Exponential Improvements?
2) book from Stanford University Press, Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries
5. Both are Relevant to Lighting (and lasers)
Creating materials (and their associated processes)
that better exploit physical phenomenon
Creating semiconductor, organic, and other materials that
better exploit the phenomenon of electroluminescence
Geometrical scaling
Increases in scale: larger wafers/production equipment
Reductions in scale: smaller sizes lead to higher efficiency
LEDs, smaller packages and higher density lasers
Some technologies directly experience improvements
while others indirectly experience them through
improvements in “components”
Better LEDs and OLEDs lead to better lighting systems
6. Outline
Existing state of lighting
Light emitting diodes (LEDs)
Organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs)
Laser Diodes
Applications for Laser Diodes
Bioluminescence
7. Type of
Specs
Incandescent
Lamp
Fluorescent
lamp
LED OLED
Thickness Very Thick Very Thick 6.9 mm (for LED
TV)
1.8 mm
Flexibility Very inflexible,
and breakable
Very inflexible,
and breakable
Some flexibility Most flexible
Danger to eyes Can’t stare at
them
Can’t stare at
them
Can’t stare at
them
Okay to stare
Lifespan 500-700 hrs >10, 000 hrs 100, 000 hrs 15, 000 hrs
Price of 60 Watt
bulb
<1 USD <5 USD 9 USD Most expensive
Efficiency/
Brightness
300 USD/Year for
800 lumens
75 USD per
year
<10 USD per year Not yet efficient
Environmental
friendliness
Low efficiency Contains
mercury
Most efficient, no
toxic chemical
Not yet efficient,
no toxic chemical
Costs of LEDs have Rapidly Dropped
Source: Group presentation in MT5016 module and http://electronics.howstuffworks.com/led4.htm
http://www.theverge.com/2013/10/3/4798602/walmart-gets-aggressive-on-led-bulb-pricing
8. Incandescent Lights
Electricity is generated
by voltage across
electrodes
Poor efficiencies (most
of the power is emitted
as heat or non-visible
electro-magnetic
radiation)
Also large size
Big connector, bulbs,
filaments
Filament
9. Fluorescent Lighting
Electricity also generated by
voltage across electrode
Better efficiencies
emits about 65% in 254 nm line
(visible) and 10–20% of its light in
185 nm line (UV)
UV light is absorbed by bulb's
fluorescent coating (phosphors),
which re-radiates the energy at
longer “visible” wavelengths
blend of phosphors controls the
color of light
But still large device
Bulb, Connector, gases
10. Outline
Existing state of lighting
Light emitting diodes (LEDs)
Organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs)
Laser Diodes
Applications for Laser Diodes
11. LEDs are basically a PN junction on a
Semiconductor Substrate
Voltage difference
causes electrons and
holes to recombine
and thus release
photons
Amount of energy
in photons (and thus
wavelength of light)
depends on band
gap
12. Typical LED Characteristics
Semiconductor
Material
Wavelength Colour VF @ 20mA
GaAs 850-940nm Infra-Red 1.2v
GaAsP 630-660nm Red 1.8v
GaAsP 605-620nm Amber 2.0v
GaAsP:N 585-595nm Yellow 2.2v
AlGaP 550-570nm Green 3.5v
SiC 430-505nm Blue 3.6v
GaInN 450nm White 4.0v
Different Materials for LEDs Emit Different Wavelengths
and thus Emit Different Colors
13. But other changes in materials lead to
improvements in efficiency
One measure of efficiency is Photons per electrons:
first LEDs in 1960s generated .0001 photons/electron
But efficiency is a vague term because our eyes are
more sensitive to some colors than others
More popular measure of efficiency is lumens per
Watt; function of
internal efficiency: amount of lumens generated
extraction efficiency: % of lumens that actually escapes
Must create the right combination of materials (and
processes) to achieve high luminosity per Watt
Orton, J, 2009. Semiconductors and the Information Revolution: Magic Crystals that made IT Happen, NY: Academic Press
14. Must find materials that
Emit light in visible spectrum
Have short radiative lifetime (high probability of
radiative recombination for electrons and holes)
Minimize non-radiative recombination with high
crystal purity and structure
Maximize the possibility of radiative recombination by
bringing together holes and electrons in a small space
(such as double hetero-structure or quantum well)
And also design the device such that most of the light
is extracted, i.e., escapes
Orton, J, 2009. Semiconductors and the Information Revolution: Magic Crystals that made IT Happen, NY: Academic Press
15. Improvements in Luminosity per Watt have Occurred
Source: Lima Azevedo, Granger Morgan, Fritz Morgan, The Transition to Solid-State Lighting,
Proceedings of the IEEE 97(3)
LuminosityperWatt
16. New Processes Also Helped
Because these materials do not naturally occur and
because the processes impacted on the efficiency of an
LED, scientists and engineers also created new
processes for these new materials
These processes include
Liquid phase epitaxy
MOVPE (metal organic vapor phase epitaxy)
MBE (molecular beam epitaxy)
Electron beam irradiation
MBE allowed better control over the ratio of materials
and the structures of the devices
Orton, J, 2009. Semiconductors and the Information Revolution: Magic Crystals that made IT Happen, NY: Academic Press
17. Most Recent Color is Blue
Bottleneck for making white LEDs for many years was
in blue lasers (need red, blue, and green lights)
Efficient blue lasers did not exist until Shuji Nakamura
improved the efficiency of blue LEDs in late 1990s by
using GaInN
Blue LEDs enabled white LEDs and thus the use of
LEDs for lighting
Second, blue lasers enabled smaller memory storage
areas in CDs because shorter wavelength than red
lasers
Finally, he developed a new growth technique called
epitaxial lateral over growth, which enabled lower
dislocation densities in blue lasers
Orton, J, 2009. Semiconductors and the Information Revolution: Magic Crystals that made IT Happen, NY: Academic Press
18. How to achieve White Color LED
Mixture of Red, Green & Blue color
to get white color LED.
Involved electro-optical design to
control blending & diffusion of
different colors
Involved coating of an blue LED
with phosphor of different colors to
produce white light.
Fraction of blue light undergoes the
Stokes Shift being transformed
shorter wavelength to longer
wavelength.
RGB White LED Phosphor Based White LED
LED Die
Phosphor
Phosphor Based White LED Spectrum of Phosphor LEDRGB Color Chart
19. Warm white
Cool white
Daylight white
Phillips and Samsung have created LEDs that emit 200 lumens and they
oncluded that maximum theoretical efficiency is 400 lumens per Watt.
//www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/philips-ups-led-ante-with-2
lumens-per-watt-tube. http://www.ledinside.com/node/16905
Further Improvements in Efficiency Have
Continued to Occur and More are Still Possible
According to DoE, Phillips, and Samsung
21. Fluorescent
Source: Lima Azevedo, Granger Morgan, Fritz Morgan, The Transition to Solid-State Lighting,
Proceedings of the IEEE 97(3), March 2009
More Detailed Projections for LEDs by DoE
22. Source: Roland Haitz, Jeffrey Tsao, Solid-state Lighting: The case 10 years after and future prospects,
Phys. Solidi A 208 (1): 17-29, 2011
Costs are also Falling (Dotted Line) due
to Greater Efficiencies and Changes in Scale
23. Through-hole LED
Lead frame based
Advantages
➢ Low cost & easy rework
➢ Higher mechanical shock resistant
➢ Better light extraction with optic
designed viewing angle
Disadvantage
➢ Size
Printed Circuit Board based
Advantages
➢ Size, thickness
➢ SMT process, more popular
Disadvantage
➢ Less immunity to environmental
➢ No optic design, customized viewing
angle
➢ Complicated process
Surface Mount LED
Both reductions (smaller LEDs) and increases in scale
(bigger wafers/equipment) drive Cost Reductions
24. *See fourth session on ICs and discussion of displays for more details on why costs fall as substrates
and equipment are made larger. Wafers for ICs are now 12” and will soon be 18”
Source of figure: http://www.electroiq.com/articles/sst/2012/02/led-manufacturing-highlights-from-strategies-in-light-day-2.html
Wafer Sizes Have and Will Become Larger*
25. LED CFL Incandescent
Light bulb projected lifespan 50,000 hours 10,000 hours 1,200 hours
Watts per bulb (equiv. 60
watts)
10 14 60
Cost per bulb $35.95 $3.95 $1.25
KWh of electricity used over
50,000 hours
500 700 3000
Cost of electricity (@ 0.10per
KWh)
$50 $70 $300
Bulbs needed for 50k hours
of use
1 5 42
Equivalent 50k hours bulb
expense
$35.95 $19.75 $52.50
Total cost for 50k hours $85.75 $89.75 $352.50
Relatively Recent Cost Comparison
But most recent price < $10 (USD) for LEDs
Sources: http://www.tomsguide.com/us/light-bulb-guide-2014,review-1986.html;
http://www.tomsguide.com/us/light-bulb-guide-2014,review-1986.html
$9
$9
$59
29. LEDs for Greenhouses?
Greenhouses enable more locally grown food, and thus
lower transportation costs
Build greenhouses in cities, something like vertical
farms?
LEDs make more light available for greenhouses in
northern climates and thus increase their productivity
http://nextbigfuture.com/2014/06/greenhouses-will-get-more-energy.html#more
30. Intelligent Lighting and (Heating)?
Easer to control LEDs via Internet with for example,
tablet or smartphone
Can set timing, adjust colors and brightness
Various hardware are needed
but getting cheaper due to better electronic components
may be economical in office or other commercial buildings
How about using electronics to sense presence and
location of humans?
Lights automatically turn on and off as people move
Take this one step further: lights only illuminate spots
where people are standing or looking
Lighting as a service
Source: Technology Review, Nov 5, 2012. http://m.technologyreview.com/blog/guest/28396/
31. Intelligent Heating with Infra-Red LEDs
Direct beams of infrared light at people using
Clever optics
Servo-motors
Infrared light heats people and reduces need for
heating entire room
Large infrared lamps?
Or small infrared LEDs?
People tracked with image sensors or Wi-Fi
Useful for large open rooms (e.g., lobbies, atrium,
lecture halls) or rooms rarely used
Can reduce heating costs by 90%
Economist, in the moment of the heat, economist, September 6, 2014
32. Market for LEDs is Changing from Industrial Applications to General
Lighting as US bans sale of 40 and 60Watt Incandescent Bulbs
Source: http://www.semiconductor-today.com/news_items/2012/AUG/LED_090812.html
34. Outline
Existing state of lighting
Light emitting diodes (LEDs)
Organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs)
Laser Diodes
Applications for Laser Diodes
Bioluminescence
35. OLEDs have many Advantages
Cheaper to process than semiconductor materials
Lower temperatures required
Can be roll printed onto a substrate (see later slides in this
session)
Can put multiple colors on the same substrate
Can stare at them, unlike other forms of lighting
Thinner and more flexible
These advantages enable more aesthetically appealing
designs, even more than LEDs
But they currently have higher cost, lower efficiency and
shorter lifetimes than do LEDs
36. What about Organic LEDs (OLEDs)
Improvements in OLEDs are Occurring
Source: Sheats et al, 1996, Organic Electroluminescent Devices, Science 271 (5277): 884-888 and Changhee Lee’s
presentation slides; PPV: poly (p-phenylene vinylene)
37. More Recent Data
Improvements also continue to be made. According to a 2009
paper in Nature, a novel structural design for a white OLED is
described that exhibits efficiencies of 90 lumens per watt and
shows a potential for efficiencies as high as 124 lumens per
watt
Panasonic announced a white OLED with 114 lumens per
Watt in 2013
Philips claims that efficiencies of 150 lumens per Watt can
and will likely be achieved in the near future.
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/413485/ultra-efficient-organic-leds/
http://panasonic.co.jp/corp/news/official.data/data.dir/2013/05/en130524-6/en130524-6.html
38. Improvements are Driven by Creating
Materials…..
Creating materials that better exploit the
phenomenon of electroluminescence is the
main reason for the improvements shown in
the previous slide
Nitrides
Polymers
Polyfluorene
Also new processes?
39. What are the limits?
To what extent can
efficiencies be improved?
costs be reduced?
thinness be achieved?
Lifetimes be increased?
Are these limits determined by materials or
processes?
Can roll printing dramatically reduce costs; can
increasing scale of roll printing equipment lead
to much lower costs?
40. Where will be the first application for
OLEDs
Ones that require thinness, flexibility, and/or
multiple colors on a single substrate?
Household lighting?
Retail lighting?
Clothing?
Displays?
How many improvements are needed before
these applications become economically
feasible?
44. Outline
Existing state of lighting
Light emitting diodes (LEDs)
Organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs)
Laser Diodes
they are similar to LEDs
They are basically an LED with a cavity and a
mirror to enable “optical amplification based
on stimulated emission of photons”
Applications for Laser Diodes
Bioluminescence
45. Semiconductor Lasers also benefit from the
two mechanisms mentioned earlier
Creating materials (and their associated processes)
that better exploit physical phenomenon
Creating combinations of materials that better exploit
phenomenon of optical amplification based on stimulated
emission of photons
Helped by new processes that enable higher purity, better
crystal structure, and better control over composition of
materials
Also better materials for heat sinks, solder, and mirrors
Geometrical scaling
Increases in scale: larger wafers/production equipment
Reductions in scale: smaller sizes generally lead to lower
threshold current densities (helped by new technologies)
46. Different materials emit light at different wavelengths
Laser types shown above the wavelength bar emit light with a specific
wavelength while ones below the bar emit in a wavelength range. Non-
semiconductor lasers (many kinds of lasers) are also shown in this figure
47. Many Improvements to Lasers
Reductions in threshold current, i.e.,
minimum current needed for lasing
Reductions in Pulse Width of Lasers for
faster switching
Increases in Power of Lasers
Improvements in cost and power for one
type of laser (GaAs)
48. Source: Materials Today 14(9) September 2011, Pages 388–397
Reductions in Threshold Current, i.e., Minimum Current Needed for
Lasing to Occur, enable lower power consumption
49. Reductions in Threshold Current Driven By:
New structures
Double hetero-structure
Quantum wells
Quantum dots
Reductions in scale
These new structures involve smaller dimensions
Reductions in scale for a specific structure (along with
other changes) also led to reductions in threshold
current density
Reductions in scale also lead to lower costs in the long
run
50. Double Heterostructure Quantum Well
(edge emitter) (edge emitter)
Vertical Cavity Surface Emitting Laser (VCSEL) (emits from the top and
emits perpendicular to the top surface), cheaper to fabricate than others
52. Reductions in Threshold Current (2)
Creating new combinations of materials; enabled both
new emission wavelengths and
better lasing at a single wavelength (purity and crystal
strength are important: see next slide)
New processes supported the reductions in scale and
the creation of better materials
Liquid phase epitaxy
Vapor phase epitaxy
Molecular beam epitaxy
Metal organic vapor phase epitaxy
Low pressure chemical vapor deposition
54. Improvements in Power of Other Lasers for Defense, Medical
(without affecting
eyes)
Yb: Ytterbium
Tm: Thallium
Er:Yb: Ytterbium-
sensitized erbium
http://spie.org/x26003.xml
55. Source: Ultrafast fiber lasers, Marting Fermann and Ingmar Hart, Nature Photonics, 20 Octobers 2013, 868-874
Using Multiple Fibers can Enable Even Higher Power Output
56.
57. Many Improvements to Lasers
Reductions in threshold current, i.e.,
minimum current needed for lasing
Reductions in Pulse Width of Lasers
Increases in Power of Lasers
Improvements in cost and power for one
type of laser (GaAs)
58. For a specific type of laser, e.g., GaAs laser diode
Improvements are largely driven by creation of new materials
and processes for making those materials
Heat sink: heat must be removed in order to prevent overheating
of laser
Mirror: contaminants in mirror cause light to be focused on a
spot and thus burn up the mirror
Processes
Fewer defects can have large impact on maximum power because
small reduction in defects can lead to much higher power
Faster processes leads to lower costs come from faster processing
Also increases in scale of wafers and associated production
equipment
Source: Martinson R 2007. Industrial markets beckon for high-power diode lasers, Optics, October: 26-27. and
conversations with Dr. Aaron Danner, NUS
59. Improvements in Average Selling Price (ASP) and
Power of Semiconductor Lasers
Source: Martinson R 2007. Industrial markets beckon for high-power
diode lasers, Optics, October: 26-27.
60. Outline
Existing state of lighting
Light emitting diodes (LEDs)
Organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs)
Laser Diodes
Applications for Laser Diodes
Bioluminescence
61.
62. Applications for Lasers
Telecom is a big one: covered in Session 10
But many others
Information storage (e.g., CDs and DVDs)
Processing of metals and other materials
Printing, Surgery
High power lasers for military, fusion
Agriculture
Automated vehicles
Virtual reality games
Some of these applications use laser diodes while
other applications use other forms of lasers (gas
and solid state lasers)
63.
64. Agriculture
Laser leveled fields facilitate irrigation
Better control of water
GPS equipped tractors facilitate harvesting
and seeding
Remember prescriptive planting in session
4?
Helps farmers plant seeds with greater
precision using GPS and special seed drills
65. Cost of Autonomous Vehicles (Google Car) Falls as Improvements
in Lasers and Other “Components” Occur
Source: Wired Magazine, http://www.wired.com/magazine/2012/01/ff_autonomouscars/3/
66. Better Lasers, Camera chips, MEMS, ICs, GPS Making these Vehicles
Economically Feasible 1 Radar: triggers alert when something
is in blind spot
2 Lane-keeping: Cameras recognize lane
markings by spotting contrast between road
surface and boundary lines
3 LIDAR: Light Detection and Ranging
system depends on 64 lasers, spinning at
upwards of 900 rpm, to generate a 360-
degree view
4 Infrared Camera: camera detects
objects
5 Stereo Vision: two cameras build a
real-time 3-D image of the road ahead
6 GPS/Inertial Measurement: tells us
location on map
7 Wheel Encoder: wheel-mounted
sensors measure wheel velocity
ICs interpret and act on this data
68. Underwater Automated Vehicles
Underwater vehicles for better oil
exploration and fisheries
More than 50% of consumed fish are from
fish farming
But fish in fish farms must be fed and this is
costly and the waste damages the local
environment
Self propelled submersible fish pens can
move fish to food and disperse waste
Many sensors help make this more
economically feasible
69. Virtual Reality is becoming economically feasible partly
because lasers are getting better and cheaper. Lasers sense
the head movements so that the field of view changes.
70. Outline
Existing state of lighting
Light emitting diodes (LEDs)
Organic light emitting diodes (OLEDs)
Laser Diodes
Applications for Laser Diodes
Bioluminescence
72. Applications
Lighting
Can we use trees to provide street
lighting?
Or to provide indoor lighting?
In-vivo imaging
A noninvasive insight into living
organisms
Understand disease related changes in
the body
Food industry
Can help detect pathogens
73. Challenges
Very expensive to extract luciferase from fire flies
Can we make better sources of bioluminescence
through sequencing DNA, adjusting DNA,
synthesizing DNA?
Discussed in next session
Can we put DNA into another living organism like has
been done with spider silk?
Or will the cost of luciferase as we scale up
production?
Just as cost of chemicals dropped as scale was increased
74. Conclusions and Relevant Questions for Your
Group Projects (1)
The luminosity per Watt and their costs continue to be
improved for LEDs and OLEDs because
Scientists and engineers create new materials that better exploit
the relevant phenomenon
Also benefits from changes in scale
How many further improvements are likely to occur?
When will their costs become low enough or performance
high enough to be economical for specific applications?
Can we identify those applications, order in which they
will become economical, and specific needs of each
application?
What does this tell us about the future?
75. Conclusions and Relevant Questions for Your
Group Projects (2)
Improvements in lasers continue to occur
Lower threshold current density
Higher power
Shorter pulse widths
How many further improvements are likely to occur?
When will their costs become low enough or
performance high enough to be economical for
specific applications?
Can we identify those applications, order in which
they will become economical, and specific needs of
each application?
What does this tell us about the future?