Russia's geopolitics are defined by its lack of natural defenses for its heartland and its use of distance as a primary defense. Both Napoleon and Hitler were defeated in Russia after overextending their supply lines. Currently, Russia enforces crucial geopolitical frontlines in the Arctic, Crimea, and Kaliningrad by heavy militarization in these regions. The Ukraine crisis has accelerated a power shift with Russia losing influence, Europe emerging stronger, and China seeing new opportunities. However, Russia's economic crisis poses broader threats if it causes political instability and leadership change in Russia.

1. +
Russia – A Geopolitical
Conundrum
Group 9 – Sec A

2. + Russia’s geopolitics are fairly straight forward…
 The heartland has no formidable
natural defenses – Mountain ranges or
deserts to deter invasions
 Plains only broken up by navigable
rivers – thus they expanded making
the invaders march longer to reach the
heartland
 Stretched supply lines and cold
climates – distance is the primary
defense
Blast from the past
Napoleon (1812) and Hitler (1940) – two military
leaders who were defeated in different eras with similar
military tactics
Step 1 - Retreat from the border towards the Heartland
Step 2 – Wait while the “Winter is coming”
Step 3 – Counterattack and wreak havoc
Post WWII - Stalin expanded Russia into Eastern
Europe – thus stretching Russia into two continents

3. + They found a flaw and they had a no non-sense Russian
solution…
 They didn’t have a strong enough economy to attract
neighboring states
 So they started suppressing them and maintained control
of the places
 Cost of empire overwhelmed the economic capacity and
they broke down
 This threatens the leaders and requires them to recreate
the buffer
 Adding former USSR members to NATO appears as a
direct threat to Russia’s dominance in the region – to
which the west disagrees
 He meddled in Ukraine and kept it allied with Russia –
through Viktor Yankovych
 What did he do when Yankovych was kicked out of
office? Exactly like those before him – INVADED
UKRAINE
 What he can do? - If not make a neo – Eastern Bloc – he
can at least divide NATO
What Putin is up to

4. + Russia enforcing three crucial geopolitical frontlines…
The Arctic The Crimean Peninsula Kaliningrad
 Since annexing it in
March 2014, Russia
has further militarized
the region and
entrenched itself in the
peninsula
 Believed to be
developing a “rocket –
artillery regiment
equipped with multiple
missile defense
systems”
 Russia’s Black Sea
Fleet, based in Crimea
being retrofitted for
duty with new ships
and equipment
 Russian foreign
minister claimed that
Moscow has the
authority for full nuclear
deployment in the
region
 Small piece of territory
wedged between the
NATO states of Poland
and Lithuania in the
Baltic Sea
 Heavily militarized
during the Cold War
era as a possible strike
position
 Short range ballistic
missiles present since
2012 alongside the
Russian Baltic Sea
fleet and two airbases
 Multiple
unsubstantiated
reports claim presence
of nuclear weapons in
the region
 Cutting off the
Lithuanian agreement
 Russian military
expansion in the Arctic
has been a major goal
in the past decade
 The new military
doctrine officially puts
special focus on the
region
 This has been done to
help ensure access to
potential energy
resources on the Arctic
sea bed against
possible Danish,
Norwegian, Canadian
and US claims
 Estimates say upwards
of 15% of earth’s
remaining oil, 30%
natural gas and 20%
LNG are present

5. + Geopolitical Game Changers – redefining international
landscapes
 Ukraine Crisis is accelerating a power shift among the major players
 Russia is a net geopolitical loser, Europe is emerging stronger, NATO is boosting defenses
and China sees new openings
 Moscow has overplayed its hand and is continuously losing on multiple fronts – combined
with a tottering economy owing to growing state interference and a steep oil and possible
gas price drop with the added ingredient of Western sanctions
 On the other hand Europe is revitalizing ties with Russia’s western neighbours
 Simultaneously NATO is boosting defense expenditure and Russia’s nuclear threats are
only testing their patience
 Anxious Central Asian nations have turned to Beijing as a welcome third party – with
Beijing making massive infrastructure investments and taking gas eastwards – reframing
geopolitical boundaries
Russia’s aggression abroad and repression at home have altered the basic assumptions of earlier
western policy. By misjudging the tolerance of Europe, Moscow is bringing on the encirclement it
fears.

6. + A storm is coming, Mr. Putin…
 Russia’s worst crisis since the 1998 default – is no time for delight, a Russian meltdown
cannot and will not have a happy ending
 It is neither the soviet behemoth disconnected form the world economy, nor it is a
struggling reform economy of 1990s – it is the world’s eight largest economy – well
integrated in the global marketplace
 Prolonged recession emanating from the US and EU sanctions and fall in oil prices will
create a domino in the world economy – With EU the first in line as member states of the
European Union – some emerging from recession – have extensive trade links with Russia
 Apart from the economic consequences – the major turning point will be the ouster of
Vladimir Putin from office – there will be a new “Putin” with draconian repressions and
external military adventures
 It becomes even more worrying when Russia maintains one of the world’s strongest
military strengths and a big share of global nuclear stockpile – thus likely emergence of
someone worse than Putin should not be taken lightly (the possible candidates includes an
ex – cabinet minister, a former premier, a jailed oligarch and an anti – corruption activist)
 With so much mutual inter – connectedness and global risk, “losing” Russia is equivalent to
shooting oneself in the foot. Or the head.
What happened in Crimea was a terrible thing. What happened in Ukraine was a tragedy. What is
happening in Russia right now is a threat to the global order.

7. + Testing waters for Russian Policy in the near future include…
 Cohesive working of Republican controlled Congress in the US and Democratic
administration on key issues is a major question mark
 If the bitter rivalry is not supplanted by compromise – Russia will breathe easy
Changing US foreign policy
Economic Crisis
 China’s seriousness in playing a part in rescuing Russian economy is a very important
development
 A possible assistance will cause a major shift in world order
China’s foreign policy
European Unity
ISIS dilemma
 Putin’s strategy towards the deepening economic crisis
 The choice is between – a “frozen” conflict in Ukraine or a settlement with the West
 Whether Europe will stick to it’s unity on Ukraine or will Russian efforts and US
disgruntlement drive a wedge eventually
 Lot is dependent on economic state, political events (Britain 2015) and Transatlantic Trade
and Investment Partnership (TTIP)
 Evolution of Islamic State and whether it can be prevented to expand in geographical
scope of influence and creating a Al-Qaida-esque with an even greater destructive
potential

8. +