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Russo - Ukrainian War Updates III: Defcon 3

The document provides an update on the Russia-Ukraine war as of March 1, 2022. It analyzes the current state of the war in 3 key points: 1) Russia has adjusted its plans to focus on besieging and encircling Kyiv while also occupying eastern Ukraine; 2) The Ukrainian government will likely relocate to Lviv if Kyiv falls and establish an exile government if Lviv is also captured; 3) The conflict could become protracted if negotiations fail, leading to continued fighting in western Ukraine and insurgency in occupied areas.

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usso - krainian War Updates III: DEFCON 3 Kan Yuenyong [as of March 1, 2022, GMT+7; D-Day+5] Λ x U R g veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 Geopolitics.Λsia Image: https://mobile.twitter.com/AkelaFreedom/status/1427890288622768131
–Herman Melville, ‘Moby Dick’ “…be it what it may” g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
The Net Assessment • Russia has made a stiffed test more than ever toward the strength of the recent rules-based global order. It remains intact so far should the war end shortly. If it will be a protracted war, the new global order will emerge. • The resent maneuver from the West aims to end the conflict in a very short period of time by sharply increasing Russia’s cost of war (i.e. SWIFT sanction) and facilitate Ukraine (via supporting through equipments and funding) to build its capability on resistance against Russia’s military • UNAG’s Uniting for Peace (U4P) move to overrule the UNSC’s veto power is similar to the move during the Afghanistan’s U4P move in 1980, but this time it’s with more united Western allies • More alert and strengthening NATO allies, i.e. an announcement of German Chancellor to increase defense budget to 2% of GDP, and to diversified its dependence on Russian energy. • Russia tries to increase its bargaining via Nuclear threatening and mobilizing army from Belarus and Chechnya, but it’s difficult to achieve military objectives in the short run (i.e. to decapitate the Ukraine government and install the new friendly regime). Alternative SWIFT has very low user (i.e. only 400 users) • Over 500,000 Ukrainian refugees have fled after Russian invasion (Axios). It might generate further problems in Europe. g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
The Net Assessment (cont.) • It doesn’t matter on how Putin aims to see “Kosovo (1998-1999)” or “Afghanistan (2021)” but it will be unveiled as following scenarios: • Finland (winter war, 30 November 1939 – 13 March 1940), short term conflict 6 - 12 months -> Ukraine will set aside and will meet terms with Russia for the disputed territory and becoming neutral for at least 10 years treaty, possibly can still have a risk for the future conflict with Putin’s “perpetual war-and-peace”. Possibility = 30%. • Spanish civil war (17 July 1936 – 1 April 1939), average term conflict, 2 - 3 years or more -> might contribute to global conflict, underlying global order adjustment had emerged, the war was merely a symptom. Possibility = 25%. • Soviet-Afghan war (24 December 1979 – 15 February 1989), a protracted war, i.e. 5-10 years or more -> might contribute to another Russia’s collapse, yet another kind of global order will emerge. Possibility = 45% g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 Besiege and encirclement Converge to isolate the eastern flank Occupying the eastern flank Ukrainian government will choose to flee to Lyiv, and then to secure the western flank https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 • Russia deployed additional heavy forces and artillery that it has so far failed to employ in assaults on Kyiv to the city’s western approach on February 27-28. Russian forces will likely launch a renewed assault on western Kyiv on March 1. • Russian forces began using heavy artillery against central Kharkiv on February 28, indicating a dangerous inflection in Russian operations as the Kremlin chooses to use air and artillery assets it has held in reserve to date. • Russian forces resumed limited advances in northeastern Ukraine on February 28 after an operational pause on February 26-27. • Russian and proxy forces resumed assaults on Ukrainian forces defending Mariupol from the east and deployed additional artillery and anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) assets to the Mariupol front line on February 28. Russian forces may attempt a renewed assault on Mariupol in the coming days. • Russian forces increasingly targeted Ukrainian airfields and logistics centers on February 28, particularly in western Ukraine. Russia likely seeks to ground the Ukrainian air force and interdict the ability of Western states to resupply the Ukrainian military. • Russian and Belarusian forces may be preparing for an additional line of advance from Belarus into western Ukraine. • Russian successes in southern Ukraine are the most dangerous and threaten to unhinge Ukraine’s successful defenses and rearguard actions to the north and northeast. • Russian troops are facing growing morale and logistics issues, predictable consequences of the poor planning, coordination, and execution of attacks along Ukraine’s northern border. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian- offensive-campaign-assessment-february-28-2022
One of the new satellite images from Maxar showing the Russian military convoy that’s reached the outskirts of Kyiv, longer than previously measured & now believed to be 40+ miles long. Maxar says it’s made up of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other vehicles.. https://mobile.twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1498467692042461186 g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
Live Webcams From Around #Ukraine | #Kyiv https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lf-EEnsxZXo g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
Dynamics of War • In war, both sides are not at fixed state. After facing a strong resistance from Ukrainian army and facing problems on logistics, but the northern flank of Russian invasion army will overcome the problems and it has adjusted its plan by diverting to encircle Kyiv. With limited people and resources, Ukrainian army will be forced into defensive form. It is the Russian army whom is the offensive actor and thus to dictate the fate of war. We predict the phases of war as follows: • Besiege & encirclement: Urban warfare will use offensive-defensive ratio as much as 6:1 to 10:1, while it will use only 3:1 on open terrain. Russian military will rather shelling rather than to direct occupying the city to avoid losing the servicemen, while encirclement the city. The Ukrainian army inside Kyiv, if being encircled, it will lack of enough food and ammunition supply. • Occupying eastern flank campaign: The rational choice for president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to leave Kyiv and establishing Lviv as the new capital and military base, the connected boundary of western flank of Ukraine with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania will help building the safe rear for Ukrainian army. In the meantime, the Russian army from the northern front and the southern front will march along the Dnieper river to converge each other and thus to isolate Ukrainian army whom still remains in the eastern flank. If Lyiv will also fall, the Ukrainian government will establish government in exile. The Russian military will establish the new Ukrainian puppet government. • Continued invasion in the western flank and possible urban and insurgency warfare in occupied zone: Had the two countries not met the negotiation terms, the protracted war will be expected. It will be a long and losing war for both sides. Ukrainian force will be supported by the West. While the Russian military will endure its expensive cost of war and waiting for the West to give up its economic sanction plan. g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
Soviet Union vs Russia’s military doctrine g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 Russia’s brand of hybrid warfare is a whole-of-government approach. It operates along a spectrum of conflict ranging from covert action to overt combat, with the mobilization and employment of partisan forces that serve as the glue that binds each end of the spectrum of the concept. All the while, Russian hybrid warfare makes use of information, cyber and electronic capabilities as tools of applied force. Russia uses the construct of the “Russian Identity” to justify action and to enable covert and partisan action. (Fox and Rosso, 2017) -> escalate - de-escalate / hybrid warfare / chaos strategy doctrine. Soviet Union’s doctrine Russia’s doctrine
Uniting for Peace (U4P) Invoked by the Security Council Uniting for Peace Invoked by the General Assembly g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 U4P is very rare, happened only 12 times in the history. Appointment of the members of the Credentials Committee
 Report of the Credentials Committee • Adoption of the agenda (A/ES-11/2) • Letter dated 28 February 2014 from the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations addressed to the President of the Security Council (S/ 2014/136) - Item 5 • https://media.un.org/en/asset/k1l/k1luiq96be How to Overrule the Veto Power with Style
g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 https://mobile.twitter.com/1hotstreet/status/1498313100143075330 • The negotiation terms offered both on table and off table, we see stalemate here • Ukrainian side: • Possible Terms: Russia needs to retreat without condition, and end war • Bargaining chip: [1] Building up potential protracted war; [2] Supports by economic and symbolic sanction from the West and allies; [3] Supports by financial and equipments from the West; [4] Threatening to enter EU and NATO • Advantage: Protracted war tends to weaken Russian army in the long run, in its fullest potential, it might even make the regime collapse from within. • Russian side: • Possible Terms: Cedes Crimea in an exchange of Donbas and end war, see https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1561513/putin-lays-out- conditions-as-russians-shell-ukrainian-city • Bargaining chip: [1] Controlling the territories of northern Ukraine, Donbas, Mariupol, Crimea-Kherson; [2] Threatening to use nuclear weapon; [3] Posses a stockpile of gas and energy • Advantage: Holding gas and energy stockpile will force the West to stop the sanction in the long term. Russian energy production is accounting for over 12 percent of global crude oil production. Washington’s order to release strategic stockpile of oil and gas tends to be on a short term manners.
Economic Statecraft: Economics as Weapons David Allen Baldwin (2020), “Economic Statecraft” (new edition), pp. 40-41 g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
SWIFT Sanction • The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), legally S.W.I.F.T. SC, is a Belgian cooperative society providing services related to the execution of financial transactions and payments between banks worldwide, the global de facto financial settlement hub. • Considered to be the nuclear options in economic sanction arsenal. Now the US, EU, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, etc. adopt the SWIFT sanction. • No real alternative, Since 2014, the Bank of Russia has run its own financial messaging system for Russian and foreign banks. But it has only about 400 users. • Aims to increase cost of war and inflicts the most economic pain in the shortest period, i.e. economic shock or devalue of currency. The Bank of Russia raised the interest rate from 9.5% to 20% after the rouble sank 30% after new Western sanctions. The currency then eased back to stand 20% down. • The most rigorous aspect is at the compliance certified body, i.e. “J.P. Morgan (JPMS) has introduced a framework that is designed to comply with U.S. money laundering laws and regulations by restricting certain activities in the securities of U.S. Marijuana Related Businesses” • Might impact on shortage of gas and energy, triggers commodity price and inflation • See sanction list: https://www.ft.com/content/6f3ce193-ab7d-4449- ac1b-751d49b1aaf8 Absolutely brutal collapse in the ruble tonight - down more than 40%. This exceeds the loss suffered on August 26, 1998 during the height of the Russian Financial Crisis. https://twitter.com/vsualst/status/1498120083679363072 g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
DEFCON 3 • Putin places Russian nuclear deterrent on highest alert, https://www.rt.com/russia/550767-putin-nuclear- deterrent-forces-order/ • Pentagon wants Moscow back channels to prevent nuclear escalation: As the U.S. and NATO rush weapons into Ukraine, DoD officials want more military channels to Putin’s top leaders. But Russia’s not picking up the phone. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/27/ pentagon-moscow-backchannel-escalation-00012107 • Normally, DEFCON status is not available to public, but it has been communicated only among the security officers • It has changed from: normal condition, to DEFCON 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 (maximum readiness) • The recent level, DEFCON 3, “Round House”, was assessed by the public intelligence organization, DEFCON Warning System (DWS), for civilians, not military, https://mobile.twitter.com/DEFCONWSALERTS/ status/1497954094807351296 g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
Nuclear Warfare Concept • Nuclear Triad is a capability to deliver nuclear missiles from Land-sea-air based (ICBMs, SLBMs, Strategic Bombers), only four countries control nuclear triad. • The possession of second-strike capabilities, the possible remaining nuclear arsenal that can endure the adversaries’ first-strike, counters a first-strike nuclear threat and can support a no first use nuclear strategy. the submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) is the second-strike capability by nature. • Reciprocal second-strike capabilities usually cause a mutual assured destruction (MAD) defence strategy, though one side may have a lower level minimal deterrence response. Thus MAD is the genuine “helm” of hegemony of “hard power” to “govern” the recent global order. MAD mades total war or world war among superpowers unlikely, but a limited conventional warfare. • Anti-ballistic Missile (ABM) is a system designed to intercept and destroy any type of ballistic threat especially ICBM. The ABM capability is not a public knowledge, but a military classified information. Full ABM capability is like Israeli “Iron Dome”. Normally, the intelligence service will provide specific location of ICBM (and may be also airbase) for automatic intercept, but it’s difficult to detect & intercept SLBM, because it has stealthily movably operated undersea. The recent nuclear deterrence debate argues on a topic to limit ABM capability more than to restrict amount of nuclear possession, i.e. China has employed “minimum deterrence”. Because ABM constitutes a “hidden” leverage over second-strike capability, thus off-balance in MAD. It’s expected that the US has possessed the most excel ABM on earth. • Russian Death Hand (Система) can automatically initiate the launch of the Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) by sending a pre-entered highest-authority order from the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Strategic Missile Force Management to command posts and individual silos if a nuclear strike is detected by seismic, light, radioactivity, and pressure sensors even with the commanding elements fully destroyed. g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/R45861.pdf g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 Russia’s nuclear warheads
https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/R45861.pdf g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 Russia’s nuclear warheads (cont.)
g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
Long-range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) • The Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) is a surface-to-surface hypersonic missile planned for use by the United States Army. The United States Navy intends to procure a ship/ submarine-launched variant of the missile as part of the service's Intermediate-Range Conventional Prompt Strike (IRCPS) program. • LRHW is difficult to intercept, but it’s also difficult to maneuver, both due to its high speed. • Apart of the US, China and Russia also conduct the test, but only the US has already made it in production, and also a military space program (i.e. Space Delta 9 in US Space Force, orbital warfare) to counter this kind of weapon. https://mobile.twitter.com/ussfspoc/status/1460998677019906056 g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
The Evolution of Geopolitical Theories • Classic dialectic between Sir Halford John Mackinder (heartland theory) vs Nicholas John Spykman (rimland theory), realism plus geography. • George Friedman (RAND/Stratfor/Geopolitical Futures) has enhanced the classic dialectic to infuse it into each country’s “geopolitical implication” and then each country will project its “hard power” along its distinguish geopolitical implication. World system has happened according to the interaction among those geopolitical implications around the world. The US is the maintenance of global order because of its implication to preserve the largest sea power on earth. Under this theory, geopolitical implication will dictate state’s behavior, not man itself. Putin has to enact his political maneuver according to Russian geopolitical implication in order to maintain his power, not the other way round. If he fails to do so, he will be replaced by someone else who can do better than him in this regards. There is more “maneuver of power” rather than “balance of power” in this aspect. • John Joseph Mearsheimer’s offensive realism maintains “regional hegemony” (to avoid bug passing flaw) and trying to suppress other regional candidates by collaborate with regional actors (via offshore balancer) more than just to wait for natural geopolitical balance of power (thus offensive not defensive). There is no true global order in this system, but global typology of power, the unipolarity (single regional hegemon) and bipolarity (two regional hegemons) are safer than multipolarity (multiple regional hegemons) because minimum miscalculation from limited “bug passing” possibility. The premise of realism has been built upon the nature of man, i.e. anarchy and power politics. • Neoliberalism maintains “global institution” to preserve “global governance”, i.e. UN and its sister subsidiaries. Under this system, economic power will be enshrined over hard power. Thus Joseph Nye has invented the concept of “soft power” and “smart power” to combine different power altogether. The premise on neoliberalism has been built upon the economic concept such as game theory. This school believes in international law. It fails to explain why sometimes human sacrifice their life instead of economic benefit (considered from the actor’s point of view, should they fail to exist, i.e. suicidal terrorist or die in war, the game in “game theory” will be no more, gambling can’t explain over all driving factor.) • The discourse of institutions is the outcome of “constructed idea” by human interactions, thus constructivist school • Another model is Marko Papic’s constrain model (2021: 40) g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 • It has to control strategic gravity center around Moscow and major industrial zone and preserve its influence over its core in the central Russian plain • It has to build buffer state over buffer state in Eastern Europe, to prolong invasion from northern European plain which has very minimum natural barrier (i.e. mountain, river or sea), and waiting for the winter to use the climate to inflict the invading adversaries. • It has to maintain its influence over several natural barriers to protect its core, i.e. Balkan Mountains, Black Sea, Crimean Mountains, Caucasus, The Caspian Sea, Ural Mountains, etc. • It doesn’t matter whether Putin is either a rational actor or a madness, a democratic leader or an authoritarian, believes in communist ideology or believes in Russian Orthodox identity, but what’s matter is he has to implement the geostrategy according to Russian geopolitical implication. • See https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/geopolitics-russia- permanent-struggle Russia’s Geopolitical Implication
SIU’s Meta-Geopolitical Concept • Offensive realism tends to overlook possible emerging global institution from the changing global typology. Geopolitical implication fails to recognize other kinds of power, i.e. economic power and other soft powers. Neoliberalism tends to take its global order (global governance) for grant, and believes too much on economic principle/power especially in passive form, (tends to omit its offensive form, i.e. sanction). • Meta-geopolitical framework tries to eliminate those flaws and weaknesses, and blending all kind of school of thought into the universal analytical framework. • It has relied on Alvin Toffler’s “powershift” concept, based on The Three Sacred Treasures (三種の神器), the imperial regalia of Japan consists of the sword Kusanagi no Tsurugi (草薙劍), the mirror Yata no Kagami (⼋咫鏡), and the jewel Yasakani no Magatama (⼋尺瓊勾⽟). They represent the three primary virtues: valour (the sword) or “hard power”, wisdom (the mirror) or “noopolitik”, and benevolence (the jewel) or “economic power” in this regards. • Each power can be transformed back and forth into different kind of power, i.e. money can buy gun, gun can rob money. Each power will glitter according to the changing global typology (i.e. hard power in multipolarity, and economic power in unipolarity, mixed in bipolarity). • Each power has its dominant in distinguish domain, i.e. hard power based on terrestrial domain (land and sea, controlled with air supremacy) it will generate specific geopolitical implication, noopolitik can shine in “noosphere / cyberspace domain”, thus powershift because of information technological revolution. The demarcation among domains to project the power to related actors is sometimes blur and intermingled. Thus in space (astropolitik) domain, the nation-state actor will behave differently from terrestrial (geopolitics) power projection typology. • It allows (or enable to plug in) different school of thought, i.e. mainstream economics in realm of economic/financial sphere, but this realm can transform into offensive form such as “economic statecraft” using economic power as of weapon, albeit a soft one, i.e. sanction. • The underlying foundation has been built based on dynamic statecraft of nation-state, i.e. “positive governance”, an ongoing research. • It’s on development and it has to be tested more. It aims to build a geopolitical framework for all seasons, all purpose. g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
SIU’s comprehensive “Meta-Geopolitics” Framework https://www.geopolitics.asia/white-paper g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 See “Katechon and Cognitive Revolution: An Emergence of the 21st Century Global Politics”, https://www.academia.edu/45408259/ Katechon_and_Cognitive_Revolution_An_Emergence_of_the_21st_ Century_Global_Politics, to be revised and presented at CMU School of Public Policy, “Public Policy for Inclusivity and Sustainability, 2022” See “Positive Governance”, such as (1) Francis Fukuyama’s The Origins of Political Order, (2) https://www.academia.edu/62322497/ The_Public_Administration_s_Cybernetic_Governance_Paradigm_in _Digital_Era (already presented at the annual conference of PAAT, 2021), and (3) https://www.academia.edu/44766849/ Reinstitutionalism_and_Governance. To be analyzed with “Computational Social Science” model such as Agent-based Modeling (ABMs), with opensouce intelligence based on meta-geopolitics framework, and to be polished by machine- learning technology in the future The global order and typology helmed and governed by “MAD” of nuclear triad Modeling at (1) micro-scale, i.e. corporate and association, (2) mesoscale such as nation-state, and (3) macro-scale such as intergovernmental organization.
Recommendation to Thailand and ASEAN • Objection a violation of international law, thus to preserve the recent rules-based global order. This is the most vital principle to be insisted for future resolution regarding possible conflict in Asia. This kind of global order is the most peaceful one, compared to the revision one offered by Russia. • Encourage to resolve the conflict by the peaceful means, not by using force, and providing humanitarian aids to the people whom have been impacted from the conflict. • Voice out the concerns concretely and unitedly with ASEAN platform • Consider to facilitate the coming APEC meeting as a stage to help resolving the conflict. Russia might be banned from the corresponding members. Thus it has to be prepared as a platform beforehand. • The world should set its priority into global issues such as the pandemic, the climate change, inequality among the north and the south, terrorism, etc. Thus ending the conflict is a must. g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
Λ x g veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 Geopolitics.Λsia

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Russo - Ukrainian War Updates III: Defcon 3

  • 1.
    usso - krainianWar Updates III: DEFCON 3 Kan Yuenyong [as of March 1, 2022, GMT+7; D-Day+5] Λ x U R g veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 Geopolitics.Λsia Image: https://mobile.twitter.com/AkelaFreedom/status/1427890288622768131
  • 2.
    –Herman Melville, ‘MobyDick’ “…be it what it may” g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
  • 3.
    The Net Assessment •Russia has made a stiffed test more than ever toward the strength of the recent rules-based global order. It remains intact so far should the war end shortly. If it will be a protracted war, the new global order will emerge. • The resent maneuver from the West aims to end the conflict in a very short period of time by sharply increasing Russia’s cost of war (i.e. SWIFT sanction) and facilitate Ukraine (via supporting through equipments and funding) to build its capability on resistance against Russia’s military • UNAG’s Uniting for Peace (U4P) move to overrule the UNSC’s veto power is similar to the move during the Afghanistan’s U4P move in 1980, but this time it’s with more united Western allies • More alert and strengthening NATO allies, i.e. an announcement of German Chancellor to increase defense budget to 2% of GDP, and to diversified its dependence on Russian energy. • Russia tries to increase its bargaining via Nuclear threatening and mobilizing army from Belarus and Chechnya, but it’s difficult to achieve military objectives in the short run (i.e. to decapitate the Ukraine government and install the new friendly regime). Alternative SWIFT has very low user (i.e. only 400 users) • Over 500,000 Ukrainian refugees have fled after Russian invasion (Axios). It might generate further problems in Europe. g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
  • 4.
    The Net Assessment(cont.) • It doesn’t matter on how Putin aims to see “Kosovo (1998-1999)” or “Afghanistan (2021)” but it will be unveiled as following scenarios: • Finland (winter war, 30 November 1939 – 13 March 1940), short term conflict 6 - 12 months -> Ukraine will set aside and will meet terms with Russia for the disputed territory and becoming neutral for at least 10 years treaty, possibly can still have a risk for the future conflict with Putin’s “perpetual war-and-peace”. Possibility = 30%. • Spanish civil war (17 July 1936 – 1 April 1939), average term conflict, 2 - 3 years or more -> might contribute to global conflict, underlying global order adjustment had emerged, the war was merely a symptom. Possibility = 25%. • Soviet-Afghan war (24 December 1979 – 15 February 1989), a protracted war, i.e. 5-10 years or more -> might contribute to another Russia’s collapse, yet another kind of global order will emerge. Possibility = 45% g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
  • 5.
    g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas voslibérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 Besiege and encirclement Converge to isolate the eastern flank Occupying the eastern flank Ukrainian government will choose to flee to Lyiv, and then to secure the western flank https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine
  • 6.
    g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas voslibérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 • Russia deployed additional heavy forces and artillery that it has so far failed to employ in assaults on Kyiv to the city’s western approach on February 27-28. Russian forces will likely launch a renewed assault on western Kyiv on March 1. • Russian forces began using heavy artillery against central Kharkiv on February 28, indicating a dangerous inflection in Russian operations as the Kremlin chooses to use air and artillery assets it has held in reserve to date. • Russian forces resumed limited advances in northeastern Ukraine on February 28 after an operational pause on February 26-27. • Russian and proxy forces resumed assaults on Ukrainian forces defending Mariupol from the east and deployed additional artillery and anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) assets to the Mariupol front line on February 28. Russian forces may attempt a renewed assault on Mariupol in the coming days. • Russian forces increasingly targeted Ukrainian airfields and logistics centers on February 28, particularly in western Ukraine. Russia likely seeks to ground the Ukrainian air force and interdict the ability of Western states to resupply the Ukrainian military. • Russian and Belarusian forces may be preparing for an additional line of advance from Belarus into western Ukraine. • Russian successes in southern Ukraine are the most dangerous and threaten to unhinge Ukraine’s successful defenses and rearguard actions to the north and northeast. • Russian troops are facing growing morale and logistics issues, predictable consequences of the poor planning, coordination, and execution of attacks along Ukraine’s northern border. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian- offensive-campaign-assessment-february-28-2022
  • 7.
    One of thenew satellite images from Maxar showing the Russian military convoy that’s reached the outskirts of Kyiv, longer than previously measured & now believed to be 40+ miles long. Maxar says it’s made up of armored vehicles, tanks, towed artillery and other vehicles.. https://mobile.twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1498467692042461186 g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
  • 8.
    Live Webcams FromAround #Ukraine | #Kyiv https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lf-EEnsxZXo g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
  • 9.
    Dynamics of War •In war, both sides are not at fixed state. After facing a strong resistance from Ukrainian army and facing problems on logistics, but the northern flank of Russian invasion army will overcome the problems and it has adjusted its plan by diverting to encircle Kyiv. With limited people and resources, Ukrainian army will be forced into defensive form. It is the Russian army whom is the offensive actor and thus to dictate the fate of war. We predict the phases of war as follows: • Besiege & encirclement: Urban warfare will use offensive-defensive ratio as much as 6:1 to 10:1, while it will use only 3:1 on open terrain. Russian military will rather shelling rather than to direct occupying the city to avoid losing the servicemen, while encirclement the city. The Ukrainian army inside Kyiv, if being encircled, it will lack of enough food and ammunition supply. • Occupying eastern flank campaign: The rational choice for president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is to leave Kyiv and establishing Lviv as the new capital and military base, the connected boundary of western flank of Ukraine with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania will help building the safe rear for Ukrainian army. In the meantime, the Russian army from the northern front and the southern front will march along the Dnieper river to converge each other and thus to isolate Ukrainian army whom still remains in the eastern flank. If Lyiv will also fall, the Ukrainian government will establish government in exile. The Russian military will establish the new Ukrainian puppet government. • Continued invasion in the western flank and possible urban and insurgency warfare in occupied zone: Had the two countries not met the negotiation terms, the protracted war will be expected. It will be a long and losing war for both sides. Ukrainian force will be supported by the West. While the Russian military will endure its expensive cost of war and waiting for the West to give up its economic sanction plan. g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
  • 10.
    Soviet Union vsRussia’s military doctrine g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 Russia’s brand of hybrid warfare is a whole-of-government approach. It operates along a spectrum of conflict ranging from covert action to overt combat, with the mobilization and employment of partisan forces that serve as the glue that binds each end of the spectrum of the concept. All the while, Russian hybrid warfare makes use of information, cyber and electronic capabilities as tools of applied force. Russia uses the construct of the “Russian Identity” to justify action and to enable covert and partisan action. (Fox and Rosso, 2017) -> escalate - de-escalate / hybrid warfare / chaos strategy doctrine. Soviet Union’s doctrine Russia’s doctrine
  • 11.
    Uniting for Peace(U4P) Invoked by the Security Council Uniting for Peace Invoked by the General Assembly g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 U4P is very rare, happened only 12 times in the history. Appointment of the members of the Credentials Committee
 Report of the Credentials Committee • Adoption of the agenda (A/ES-11/2) • Letter dated 28 February 2014 from the Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the United Nations addressed to the President of the Security Council (S/ 2014/136) - Item 5 • https://media.un.org/en/asset/k1l/k1luiq96be How to Overrule the Veto Power with Style
  • 12.
    g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas voslibérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 https://mobile.twitter.com/1hotstreet/status/1498313100143075330 • The negotiation terms offered both on table and off table, we see stalemate here • Ukrainian side: • Possible Terms: Russia needs to retreat without condition, and end war • Bargaining chip: [1] Building up potential protracted war; [2] Supports by economic and symbolic sanction from the West and allies; [3] Supports by financial and equipments from the West; [4] Threatening to enter EU and NATO • Advantage: Protracted war tends to weaken Russian army in the long run, in its fullest potential, it might even make the regime collapse from within. • Russian side: • Possible Terms: Cedes Crimea in an exchange of Donbas and end war, see https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1561513/putin-lays-out- conditions-as-russians-shell-ukrainian-city • Bargaining chip: [1] Controlling the territories of northern Ukraine, Donbas, Mariupol, Crimea-Kherson; [2] Threatening to use nuclear weapon; [3] Posses a stockpile of gas and energy • Advantage: Holding gas and energy stockpile will force the West to stop the sanction in the long term. Russian energy production is accounting for over 12 percent of global crude oil production. Washington’s order to release strategic stockpile of oil and gas tends to be on a short term manners.
  • 13.
    Economic Statecraft: Economicsas Weapons David Allen Baldwin (2020), “Economic Statecraft” (new edition), pp. 40-41 g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
  • 14.
    SWIFT Sanction • TheSociety for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), legally S.W.I.F.T. SC, is a Belgian cooperative society providing services related to the execution of financial transactions and payments between banks worldwide, the global de facto financial settlement hub. • Considered to be the nuclear options in economic sanction arsenal. Now the US, EU, Canada, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, etc. adopt the SWIFT sanction. • No real alternative, Since 2014, the Bank of Russia has run its own financial messaging system for Russian and foreign banks. But it has only about 400 users. • Aims to increase cost of war and inflicts the most economic pain in the shortest period, i.e. economic shock or devalue of currency. The Bank of Russia raised the interest rate from 9.5% to 20% after the rouble sank 30% after new Western sanctions. The currency then eased back to stand 20% down. • The most rigorous aspect is at the compliance certified body, i.e. “J.P. Morgan (JPMS) has introduced a framework that is designed to comply with U.S. money laundering laws and regulations by restricting certain activities in the securities of U.S. Marijuana Related Businesses” • Might impact on shortage of gas and energy, triggers commodity price and inflation • See sanction list: https://www.ft.com/content/6f3ce193-ab7d-4449- ac1b-751d49b1aaf8 Absolutely brutal collapse in the ruble tonight - down more than 40%. This exceeds the loss suffered on August 26, 1998 during the height of the Russian Financial Crisis. https://twitter.com/vsualst/status/1498120083679363072 g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
  • 15.
    DEFCON 3 • Putinplaces Russian nuclear deterrent on highest alert, https://www.rt.com/russia/550767-putin-nuclear- deterrent-forces-order/ • Pentagon wants Moscow back channels to prevent nuclear escalation: As the U.S. and NATO rush weapons into Ukraine, DoD officials want more military channels to Putin’s top leaders. But Russia’s not picking up the phone. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/27/ pentagon-moscow-backchannel-escalation-00012107 • Normally, DEFCON status is not available to public, but it has been communicated only among the security officers • It has changed from: normal condition, to DEFCON 5, 4, 3, 2, 1 (maximum readiness) • The recent level, DEFCON 3, “Round House”, was assessed by the public intelligence organization, DEFCON Warning System (DWS), for civilians, not military, https://mobile.twitter.com/DEFCONWSALERTS/ status/1497954094807351296 g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
  • 16.
    Nuclear Warfare Concept •Nuclear Triad is a capability to deliver nuclear missiles from Land-sea-air based (ICBMs, SLBMs, Strategic Bombers), only four countries control nuclear triad. • The possession of second-strike capabilities, the possible remaining nuclear arsenal that can endure the adversaries’ first-strike, counters a first-strike nuclear threat and can support a no first use nuclear strategy. the submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) is the second-strike capability by nature. • Reciprocal second-strike capabilities usually cause a mutual assured destruction (MAD) defence strategy, though one side may have a lower level minimal deterrence response. Thus MAD is the genuine “helm” of hegemony of “hard power” to “govern” the recent global order. MAD mades total war or world war among superpowers unlikely, but a limited conventional warfare. • Anti-ballistic Missile (ABM) is a system designed to intercept and destroy any type of ballistic threat especially ICBM. The ABM capability is not a public knowledge, but a military classified information. Full ABM capability is like Israeli “Iron Dome”. Normally, the intelligence service will provide specific location of ICBM (and may be also airbase) for automatic intercept, but it’s difficult to detect & intercept SLBM, because it has stealthily movably operated undersea. The recent nuclear deterrence debate argues on a topic to limit ABM capability more than to restrict amount of nuclear possession, i.e. China has employed “minimum deterrence”. Because ABM constitutes a “hidden” leverage over second-strike capability, thus off-balance in MAD. It’s expected that the US has possessed the most excel ABM on earth. • Russian Death Hand (Система) can automatically initiate the launch of the Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) by sending a pre-entered highest-authority order from the General Staff of the Armed Forces, Strategic Missile Force Management to command posts and individual silos if a nuclear strike is detected by seismic, light, radioactivity, and pressure sensors even with the commanding elements fully destroyed. g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
  • 17.
    g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas voslibérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons
  • 18.
    https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/R45861.pdf g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas voslibérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 Russia’s nuclear warheads
  • 19.
    https://sgp.fas.org/crs/nuke/R45861.pdf g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas voslibérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 Russia’s nuclear warheads (cont.)
  • 20.
    g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas voslibérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
  • 21.
    g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas voslibérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
  • 22.
    Long-range Hypersonic Weapon(LRHW) • The Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon (LRHW) is a surface-to-surface hypersonic missile planned for use by the United States Army. The United States Navy intends to procure a ship/ submarine-launched variant of the missile as part of the service's Intermediate-Range Conventional Prompt Strike (IRCPS) program. • LRHW is difficult to intercept, but it’s also difficult to maneuver, both due to its high speed. • Apart of the US, China and Russia also conduct the test, but only the US has already made it in production, and also a military space program (i.e. Space Delta 9 in US Space Force, orbital warfare) to counter this kind of weapon. https://mobile.twitter.com/ussfspoc/status/1460998677019906056 g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
  • 23.
    The Evolution ofGeopolitical Theories • Classic dialectic between Sir Halford John Mackinder (heartland theory) vs Nicholas John Spykman (rimland theory), realism plus geography. • George Friedman (RAND/Stratfor/Geopolitical Futures) has enhanced the classic dialectic to infuse it into each country’s “geopolitical implication” and then each country will project its “hard power” along its distinguish geopolitical implication. World system has happened according to the interaction among those geopolitical implications around the world. The US is the maintenance of global order because of its implication to preserve the largest sea power on earth. Under this theory, geopolitical implication will dictate state’s behavior, not man itself. Putin has to enact his political maneuver according to Russian geopolitical implication in order to maintain his power, not the other way round. If he fails to do so, he will be replaced by someone else who can do better than him in this regards. There is more “maneuver of power” rather than “balance of power” in this aspect. • John Joseph Mearsheimer’s offensive realism maintains “regional hegemony” (to avoid bug passing flaw) and trying to suppress other regional candidates by collaborate with regional actors (via offshore balancer) more than just to wait for natural geopolitical balance of power (thus offensive not defensive). There is no true global order in this system, but global typology of power, the unipolarity (single regional hegemon) and bipolarity (two regional hegemons) are safer than multipolarity (multiple regional hegemons) because minimum miscalculation from limited “bug passing” possibility. The premise of realism has been built upon the nature of man, i.e. anarchy and power politics. • Neoliberalism maintains “global institution” to preserve “global governance”, i.e. UN and its sister subsidiaries. Under this system, economic power will be enshrined over hard power. Thus Joseph Nye has invented the concept of “soft power” and “smart power” to combine different power altogether. The premise on neoliberalism has been built upon the economic concept such as game theory. This school believes in international law. It fails to explain why sometimes human sacrifice their life instead of economic benefit (considered from the actor’s point of view, should they fail to exist, i.e. suicidal terrorist or die in war, the game in “game theory” will be no more, gambling can’t explain over all driving factor.) • The discourse of institutions is the outcome of “constructed idea” by human interactions, thus constructivist school • Another model is Marko Papic’s constrain model (2021: 40) g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
  • 24.
    g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas voslibérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 • It has to control strategic gravity center around Moscow and major industrial zone and preserve its influence over its core in the central Russian plain • It has to build buffer state over buffer state in Eastern Europe, to prolong invasion from northern European plain which has very minimum natural barrier (i.e. mountain, river or sea), and waiting for the winter to use the climate to inflict the invading adversaries. • It has to maintain its influence over several natural barriers to protect its core, i.e. Balkan Mountains, Black Sea, Crimean Mountains, Caucasus, The Caspian Sea, Ural Mountains, etc. • It doesn’t matter whether Putin is either a rational actor or a madness, a democratic leader or an authoritarian, believes in communist ideology or believes in Russian Orthodox identity, but what’s matter is he has to implement the geostrategy according to Russian geopolitical implication. • See https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/geopolitics-russia- permanent-struggle Russia’s Geopolitical Implication
  • 25.
    SIU’s Meta-Geopolitical Concept •Offensive realism tends to overlook possible emerging global institution from the changing global typology. Geopolitical implication fails to recognize other kinds of power, i.e. economic power and other soft powers. Neoliberalism tends to take its global order (global governance) for grant, and believes too much on economic principle/power especially in passive form, (tends to omit its offensive form, i.e. sanction). • Meta-geopolitical framework tries to eliminate those flaws and weaknesses, and blending all kind of school of thought into the universal analytical framework. • It has relied on Alvin Toffler’s “powershift” concept, based on The Three Sacred Treasures (三種の神器), the imperial regalia of Japan consists of the sword Kusanagi no Tsurugi (草薙劍), the mirror Yata no Kagami (⼋咫鏡), and the jewel Yasakani no Magatama (⼋尺瓊勾⽟). They represent the three primary virtues: valour (the sword) or “hard power”, wisdom (the mirror) or “noopolitik”, and benevolence (the jewel) or “economic power” in this regards. • Each power can be transformed back and forth into different kind of power, i.e. money can buy gun, gun can rob money. Each power will glitter according to the changing global typology (i.e. hard power in multipolarity, and economic power in unipolarity, mixed in bipolarity). • Each power has its dominant in distinguish domain, i.e. hard power based on terrestrial domain (land and sea, controlled with air supremacy) it will generate specific geopolitical implication, noopolitik can shine in “noosphere / cyberspace domain”, thus powershift because of information technological revolution. The demarcation among domains to project the power to related actors is sometimes blur and intermingled. Thus in space (astropolitik) domain, the nation-state actor will behave differently from terrestrial (geopolitics) power projection typology. • It allows (or enable to plug in) different school of thought, i.e. mainstream economics in realm of economic/financial sphere, but this realm can transform into offensive form such as “economic statecraft” using economic power as of weapon, albeit a soft one, i.e. sanction. • The underlying foundation has been built based on dynamic statecraft of nation-state, i.e. “positive governance”, an ongoing research. • It’s on development and it has to be tested more. It aims to build a geopolitical framework for all seasons, all purpose. g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
  • 26.
    SIU’s comprehensive “Meta-Geopolitics”Framework https://www.geopolitics.asia/white-paper g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60 See “Katechon and Cognitive Revolution: An Emergence of the 21st Century Global Politics”, https://www.academia.edu/45408259/ Katechon_and_Cognitive_Revolution_An_Emergence_of_the_21st_ Century_Global_Politics, to be revised and presented at CMU School of Public Policy, “Public Policy for Inclusivity and Sustainability, 2022” See “Positive Governance”, such as (1) Francis Fukuyama’s The Origins of Political Order, (2) https://www.academia.edu/62322497/ The_Public_Administration_s_Cybernetic_Governance_Paradigm_in _Digital_Era (already presented at the annual conference of PAAT, 2021), and (3) https://www.academia.edu/44766849/ Reinstitutionalism_and_Governance. To be analyzed with “Computational Social Science” model such as Agent-based Modeling (ABMs), with opensouce intelligence based on meta-geopolitics framework, and to be polished by machine- learning technology in the future The global order and typology helmed and governed by “MAD” of nuclear triad Modeling at (1) micro-scale, i.e. corporate and association, (2) mesoscale such as nation-state, and (3) macro-scale such as intergovernmental organization.
  • 27.
    Recommendation to Thailandand ASEAN • Objection a violation of international law, thus to preserve the recent rules-based global order. This is the most vital principle to be insisted for future resolution regarding possible conflict in Asia. This kind of global order is the most peaceful one, compared to the revision one offered by Russia. • Encourage to resolve the conflict by the peaceful means, not by using force, and providing humanitarian aids to the people whom have been impacted from the conflict. • Voice out the concerns concretely and unitedly with ASEAN platform • Consider to facilitate the coming APEC meeting as a stage to help resolving the conflict. Russia might be banned from the corresponding members. Thus it has to be prepared as a platform beforehand. • The world should set its priority into global issues such as the pandemic, the climate change, inequality among the north and the south, terrorism, etc. Thus ending the conflict is a must. g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas vos libérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
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    g Geopolitics.Λsia veritas voslibérait b82413a8a399c5a68a2881c3489c6b60
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