The College Advantage: Weathering the Economic Storm
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Many of the stories you've heard about the Great Recession often involve the plight of college graduates, or stories about how men and women have fared differently in the recession and recovery. The media have even created a new vocabulary to describe these differences, such as "Man-cession" and "Man-covery." But the evidence suggests that differences in education better explain how Americans have fared in these difficult economic times. In The College Advantage, we argue that college degrees have served as protection for Americans seeking shelter during a tough economic storm.
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The College Advantage: Weathering the Economic Storm
- 1. The College Advantage: Weathering The Economic Storm By: Anthony P. Carnevale, Tamara Jayasundera, Ban Cheah August 15, 2012
- 2. Overview • Almost half of the jobs lost in the recession have been recovered, and virtually all of those jobs required some form of postsecondary education. • The wage advantage for workers with a Bachelor’s degree or better over high school has remained high. • The wage premium for Bachelor’s degrees or better relative to high school degrees skyrocketed from 44 percent in 1981 to 100 percent in 2005. It has only fallen to 97 percent since the beginning of the recession.
- 3. Unemployment rates for college graduates have stayed low relative to those with a high school diploma Bachelor’s degree High school diploma All graduates 4.5 9.4 Recent graduates 6.8 24 Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (2007-2012). Employment includes all workers aged 18 and older.
- 4. Workers with a high school diploma or less bore the brunt of the recession’s job losses Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (2007-2012). Employment includes all workers aged 18 and older. * Recession – The period from December 2007 to January 2010. ** Recovery – The period from January 2010 to February 2012. *** Net Change – The period from December 2007 to February 2012. Educa4on A7ainment Job Change Recession* Recovery** Net Change*** High School or Less -‐5,611,000 -‐230,000 -‐5,841,000 Some College/AA degree -‐1,752,000 1,592,000 -‐160,000 BA degree or beGer 187,000 2,012,000 2,199,000 All -‐7,176,000 3,374,000 -‐3,802,000
- 5. The growth in employment in the past two decades has been entirely due to increases in college-educated workers -‐4% -‐14% 41% 42% 74% 82% -‐20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Jan-‐89 Jan-‐90 Jan-‐91 Jan-‐92 Jan-‐93 Jan-‐94 Jan-‐95 Jan-‐96 Jan-‐97 Jan-‐98 Jan-‐99 Jan-‐00 Jan-‐01 Jan-‐02 Jan-‐03 Jan-‐04 Jan-‐05 Jan-‐06 Jan-‐07 Jan-‐08 Jan-‐09 Jan-‐10 Jan-‐11 Jan-‐12 Percent change in employment from Jan.1989 (%) Recession High school or less Associate's degree or some college Bachelor's degree or beGer Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (1989-2012). Employment includes all workers aged 18 and older.
- 6. Earnings of workers with a Bachelor’s degree or better are still nearly twice that of high school educated workers 54% 44% 100% 97% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 College earnings premium (in percent) Source: Authors’ estimate of the Current Population Survey data (1970-2010). Employment includes all workers aged 18 and older.
- 7. College enrollment for Fall 2010 exceeded the projection by 12 percent Source: Total fall enrollment in all postsecondary degree-‐granPng insPtuPons is obtained from Integrated Postsecondary Educa1on Data System (IPEDS) data made available through the U.S. Department of EducaPon. Actual, 21,016 Projected, 18,746 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000 20,000 21,000 22,000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Postsecondary enrollment (in thousands) Actual Projected
- 8. Postsecondary enrollment skyrocketed in the recession and has plummeted since then 4.3% 1.2% 6.9% 2.9% -‐2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Recession Fall enrollment gorwth rate Source: Total fall enrollment in all postsecondary degree-granting institutions is obtained from Digest of Education Statistics 2011, published by the National Center for Education Statistics.
- 9. Since the recession, male postsecondary enrollment has grown faster than female enrollment Source: Total fall enrollment in all postsecondary degree-‐granPng insPtuPons is obtained from Digest of Educa1on Sta1s1cs 2011, published by the NaPonal Center for EducaPon StaPsPcs. 3.5% 7.1% 4.9% 6.8% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 2002 2009 Postsecondaryenrollmentgrowthrate Male Female
- 10. Conclusion • The rate of college enrollment jumped sharply, peaking in 2009, but has fallen off rapidly since then. • The recession was a college wake-up-call for men. • After lagging behind for decades, since 2006, the rate of increase in male enrollment has caught up and slightly surpassed the rate of increase in female enrollment.
- 11. For more information: See the full report at: cew.georgetown.edu/CollegeAdvantage/ Email Us | cewgeorgetown@georgetown.edu Follow Us on Twitter | @GeorgetownCEW Find Us on Facebook | Facebook.com/GeorgetownCEW Follow Us on LinkedIn | linkedin.com/company/georgetowncew