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Using language to detect potential change in
ecosystem services in the light of ecological
surprises
!
Juan Carlos Rocha & Robin Wikström
Ecosystem services are the benefits humans receive from nature (MEA 2005)
Foley et al. 2005. Science
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
0500100015002000
Year
ScientificPapers
ISI Web of Knowledge
Ecosystem services is a relatively recent field of studies. Yet,
assessing which ecosystem services are likely to be affected
by ecological surprises is one of the greatest challenges of
current ecological research.
• Knowledge bias: we know a lot
about easy to study stuff

• There is the lack of high quality
datasets and time series to
assess ecosystem services
change

• It is difficult to experiment with
ecosystems, especially when it
comes to large scale
phenomena, possible
irreversible, with great potential
to affect human well-being
The problem
Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA)
The main goal is to create
algorithms for discovering
main themes that pervades
large and unstructured
collection of documents
The elemental idea is that
documents consist of
random mixtures of latent
topics, topics that can be
represented as a distribution
of words
The goal is to
automatically discover
these “hidden” topics,
without having any prior
knowledge about the
text and its content
Model selection & number of topics
• We test Variational
Estimation Methods
(VEM), correlated topic
models (CTM) & Gibbs
sampling. 

• We tested 5 models with
different topic numbers
(20:100)

• VEM algorithm with 80
topics fit the best the
MEA training dataset
VEM1
VEM2
VEM3
VEM4
VEM5
0.010 0.012 0.014 0.016
alpha
VEM1
VEM2
VEM3
VEM4
VEM5
-1280000 -1240000 -1200000
logLik
VEM1
VEM2
VEM3
VEM4
VEM5
500 600 700 800
Perplexity
VEM1
VEM2
VEM3
VEM4
VEM5
0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
Entropy
Topics = 80

Millenium Ecosystem AssessmentTopics detection
38
58
5
14
73
41
22
70
45
80
72
55
18
19
15
44
52
56
57
78
9
1
47
28
12
39
29
30
40
75
6
27
4
35
68
71
42
48
11
51
59
2
66
63
25
34
67
3
65
60
46
32
10
21
54
7
37
17
23
69
20
49
26
8
13
16
64
77
76
33
50
53
24
61
62
31
74
79
43
36
Chapter 20 Inland Water Systems−2.pdf.txt
Chapter 8 Food.pdf.txt
Chapter 9 Timber Fuel and Fiber.pdf.txt
Chapter 15 Waste Processing and Detoxi...cation.pdf.txt
Chapter 17 Cultural and Amenity Services.pdf.txt
Chapter 23 Island Systems.pdf.txt
Chapter 5 Ecosystem Conditions and Human Well−being.pdf.txt
Chapter 6 Vulnerable Peoples and Places.pdf.txt
Fisher−2013−Strengthening_conceptual_foundations_Analysing_frameworks_for_e
Stallman−2011−Ecosystem_services_in_agriculture_determining_suitability_for_pr
Power−2010−Ecosystem_services_and_agriculture_tradeoffs_and_synergies.pdf.t
Saad−2013−Land_use_impacts_on_freshwater_regulation_erosion_regulation_an
Mitchell−2013−Linking_Landscape_Connectivity_and_Ecosystem_Service_Provisi
Mann−2012−Ecosystem_Service_Value_and_Agricultural_Conversion_in_the_Am
Maskell−2013−Exploring_the_ecological_constraints_to_multiple_ecosystem_serv
Cardinale−2013−Biodiversity_simultaneously_enhances_the_production_and_stab
Jax−2013−Ecosystem_services_and_ethics.pdf.txt
Chapter 28 Synthesis Condition and Trends in Systems and Services Trade−offs fo
Chen−2013−Changes_in_land_useland_cover_and_ecosystem_services_in_Cent
Chapter 1 MA Conceptual Framework.pdf.txt
Nelson−2005−Chapter 3 Drivers of ecosystem change summary chapter.pdf.txt
Chapter 2 Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem Condition and Human W
Chapter 14 Human Health Ecosystem Regulation of Infectious Diseases.pdf.txt
Chapter 24 Mountain Systems.pdf.txt
Zheng−−Benefits_costs_and_livelihood_implications_of_a_regional_payment_for_
Sircely−2012−Biodiversity_and_Ecosystem_Multi−Functionality_Observed_Relatio
Langerwisch−2012−Potential_effects_of_climate_change_on_inundation_patterns_
Chapter 13 Climate and Air Quality.pdf.txt
Qiu−−Spatial_interactions_among_ecosystem_services_in_an_urbanizing_agricult
Chapter 22 Dryland Systems.pdf.txt
Chapter 7 Fresh Water.pdf.txt
Chapter 4 Biodiversity.pdf.txt
Chapter 18 Marine Fisheries Systems.pdf.txt
Chapter 12 Nutrient Cycling.pdf.txt
Vidal−Abarca_Gutie..rrez−2013−Which_are_what_is_their_status_and_what_can_
Chapter 25 Polar Systems.pdf.txt
Turner−2012−Consequences_of_spatial_heterogeneity_for_ecosystem_services_i
Bai−2012−Grazing_alters_ecosystem_functioning_and_CNP_stoichiometry_of_gra
Chapter 10 New Products and Industries from Biodiversity.pdf.txt
Acreman−2013−How_Wetlands_Affect_Floods.pdf.txt
Chapter 16 Regulation of Natural Hazards Floods and Fires.pdf.txt
Chapter 11 Biodiversity Regulation of Ecosystem Services.pdf.txt
Schmitt−2013−Capturing_Ecosystem_Services_Stakeholders'_Preferences_and_T
Chapter 21 Forest and Woodland Systems.pdf.txt
Chapter 27 Urban Systems.pdf.txt
Chapter 26 Cultivated Systems.pdf.txt
Chapter 19 Coastal Systems.pdf.txt
0.2 0.6
Value
02000
Color Key
and Histogram
Count
Topics matching
Ecosystem Services Topics Words
Ecosystem Processes
Soil formation 12 species, fallows, soil, biomass, grazed, fallow
Primary production 19 soil, carbon, species, freshwater, carbon
Nutrient cycling 4 nutrient, organic, fertility, soil, ocean, cycling
Water cycling 39 discharge, amazon, inundation, basing, slope
Biodiversity 6 species, plant, richness, biodiversity, services
Provisioning services
Freshwater 75 freshwater, renewable, supply, freshwater, river
Food crops 5 nutrition, countries, livestock, africa, health
Livestock 11 grazing, steppe, soil, ground, biomass, pools
Fisheries 27 marine, fisheries, fish, coastal, system, ocean
Wild animals and plants products
Timber 2 forest, countries, carbon, plantations, trees, fao
Wood fuel 14 timeber, products, tao, forest, fuelwood, cotton
Feed, fuel and fiber crops 14 timeber, products, tao, forest, fuelwood, cotton
Hydropower
Regulating services
Air quality regulation 29 atmospheric, emissions, carbon, warming
Climate regulation 29 atmospheric, emissions, carbon, warming
Water purification 73 waste, chemicals, organic, health, exposure
Regulation of soil erosion 72 cycle, soil, spatial, erosion, groundwater
Pest and disease 1 disease, health, infectious,malaria, transmission
Pollination 45 pollination, provision, benefits, farmers, landscape
Natural hazards 67 fire, events, floods, drivers, wetlands, coastal
Cultural services 41 landscapes, tourism, traditional, knowledge, heritage
Recreation
Aesthetic values
Knowledge and educational values
Spiritual and religious
Topics = 80

Corpus = 812 papersTopics detection
Soilformation
Primaryproduction
Nutrientcycling
Watercycling
Biodiversity
Freshwater
Foodcrops
Livestock
Fisheries
Timber
Woodfuel
Climateregulation
Waterregulation
Regulationofsoilerosion
Pestanddiseaseregulation
Pollination
Naturalhazardregulation
Cultural
West Antarctic IceSheet Collapse
Tundra to Forest
Termohaline circulation
Steppe to tundra
Soil structure
Soil salinization
Sea grass collapse
Salt marshes
River channel change
Peatlands
Monsoon weakening
Marine foodwebs
Marine eutrophication
Mangroves collapse
Kelps transitions
Hypoxia
Greenland
Forest to savannas
Floating plants
Fisheries collapse
Eutrophication
Encroachment
Dry land degradation
Coral transitions
Bivalves collapse
Arctic Sea Ice
0.1 0.4
Value
0250
Color Key
and Histogram
Count
Soilformation
Primaryproduction
Nutrientcycling
Watercycling
Biodiversity
Freshwater
Foodcrops
Livestock
Fisheries
Timber
Woodfuel
Climateregulation
Waterregulation
Regulationofsoilerosion
Pestanddiseaseregulation
Pollination
Naturalhazardregulation
Cultural
West Antarctic IceSheet Collapse
Tundra to Forest
Termohaline circulation
Steppe to tundra
Soil structure
Soil salinization
Sea grass collapse
Salt marshes
River channel change
Peatlands
Monsoon weakening
Marine foodwebs
Marine eutrophication
Mangroves collapse
Kelps transitions
Hypoxia
Greenland
Forest to savannas
Floating plants
Fisheries collapse
Eutrophication
Encroachment
Dry land degradation
Coral transitions
Bivalves collapse
Arctic Sea Ice
0 0.4 1
Value
180
Color Key
and Histogram
Count
Human Readers Computer reading
Soilformation
Primaryproduction
Nutrientcycling
Watercycling
Biodiversity
Freshwater
Foodcrops
Livestock
Fisheries
Timber
Woodfuel
Climateregulation
Waterregulation
Regulationofsoilerosion
Pestanddiseaseregulation
Pollination
Naturalhazardregulation
Cultural
West Antarctic IceSheet Collapse
Tundra to Forest
Termohaline circulation
Steppe to tundra
Soil structure
Soil salinization
Sea grass collapse
Salt marshes
River channel change
Peatlands
Monsoon weakening
Marine foodwebs
Marine eutrophication
Mangroves collapse
Kelps transitions
Hypoxia
Greenland
Forest to savannas
Floating plants
Fisheries collapse
Eutrophication
Encroachment
Dry land degradation
Coral transitions
Bivalves collapse
Arctic Sea Ice
Topics = 80

Corpus = 812 papersTopics detection
False positives
Soilformation
Primaryproduction
Nutrientcycling
Watercycling
Biodiversity
Freshwater
Foodcrops
Livestock
Fisheries
Timber
Woodfuel
Climateregulation
Waterregulation
Regulationofsoilerosion
Pestanddiseaseregulation
Pollination
Naturalhazardregulation
Cultural
West Antarctic IceSheet Collapse
Tundra to Forest
Termohaline circulation
Steppe to tundra
Soil structure
Soil salinization
Sea grass collapse
Salt marshes
River channel change
Peatlands
Monsoon weakening
Marine foodwebs
Marine eutrophication
Mangroves collapse
Kelps transitions
Hypoxia
Greenland
Forest to savannas
Floating plants
Fisheries collapse
Eutrophication
Encroachment
Dry land degradation
Coral transitions
Bivalves collapse
Arctic Sea Ice
False negatives
Zooming problem
Ecosystem services categories make sense for MEA authors
but not necessarily for other scientist, readers or… computers.
Concluding remarks
• It’s hard to make students do
homework, but even harder to
make your computer do it
automatically for you…Errors
• Broad categories such as
supporting & cultural services
are hard to identify, we did much
better with regulating services.
• Our results open the possibility
of using text mining for
monitoring trends on ecosystem
services at larger scales and
real time.
Soilformation
Primaryproduction
Nutrientcycling
Watercycling
Biodiversity
Freshwater
Foodcrops
Livestock
Fisheries
Timber
Woodfuel
Climateregulation
Waterregulation
Regulationofsoilerosion
Pestanddiseaseregulation
Pollination
Naturalhazardregulation
Cultural
West Antarctica Ice Sheet collapse (
Tundra to forest (17)
Thermohaline circulation (26)
Steppe to tundra (10)
Soil structure (2)
Soil salinization (7)
Sea grass collapse (6)
Salt marshes (17)
River channel change (22)
Peatlands (21)
Monsoon weakening (9)
Marine foodwebs (50)
Marine Eutrophication (8)
Mangroves collapse (6)
Kelps transitions (11)
Hypoxia (7)
Greenland (20)
Forest to savannas (39)
Floating plants (4)
Fisheries collapse (75)
Eutrophication (20)
Encroachment (12)
Dry land degradation (26)
Coral transitions (33)
Bivalves collapse (13)
Arctic Sea Ice (19)
0 0.4 1
Value
215
Color Key
and Histogram
Count
Questions??
e-mail: juan.rocha@su.se twitter: @juanrocha
slides: http://criticaltransitions.wordpress.com/ | data: www.regimeshifts.rog
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Text mining Montpellier

  • 1.
  • 2. Using language to detect potential change in ecosystem services in the light of ecological surprises ! Juan Carlos Rocha & Robin Wikström
  • 3. Ecosystem services are the benefits humans receive from nature (MEA 2005) Foley et al. 2005. Science
  • 4. 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 0500100015002000 Year ScientificPapers ISI Web of Knowledge Ecosystem services is a relatively recent field of studies. Yet, assessing which ecosystem services are likely to be affected by ecological surprises is one of the greatest challenges of current ecological research.
  • 5. • Knowledge bias: we know a lot about easy to study stuff • There is the lack of high quality datasets and time series to assess ecosystem services change • It is difficult to experiment with ecosystems, especially when it comes to large scale phenomena, possible irreversible, with great potential to affect human well-being The problem
  • 6. Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) The main goal is to create algorithms for discovering main themes that pervades large and unstructured collection of documents The elemental idea is that documents consist of random mixtures of latent topics, topics that can be represented as a distribution of words The goal is to automatically discover these “hidden” topics, without having any prior knowledge about the text and its content
  • 7. Model selection & number of topics • We test Variational Estimation Methods (VEM), correlated topic models (CTM) & Gibbs sampling. • We tested 5 models with different topic numbers (20:100) • VEM algorithm with 80 topics fit the best the MEA training dataset VEM1 VEM2 VEM3 VEM4 VEM5 0.010 0.012 0.014 0.016 alpha VEM1 VEM2 VEM3 VEM4 VEM5 -1280000 -1240000 -1200000 logLik VEM1 VEM2 VEM3 VEM4 VEM5 500 600 700 800 Perplexity VEM1 VEM2 VEM3 VEM4 VEM5 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Entropy
  • 8. Topics = 80 Millenium Ecosystem AssessmentTopics detection 38 58 5 14 73 41 22 70 45 80 72 55 18 19 15 44 52 56 57 78 9 1 47 28 12 39 29 30 40 75 6 27 4 35 68 71 42 48 11 51 59 2 66 63 25 34 67 3 65 60 46 32 10 21 54 7 37 17 23 69 20 49 26 8 13 16 64 77 76 33 50 53 24 61 62 31 74 79 43 36 Chapter 20 Inland Water Systems−2.pdf.txt Chapter 8 Food.pdf.txt Chapter 9 Timber Fuel and Fiber.pdf.txt Chapter 15 Waste Processing and Detoxi...cation.pdf.txt Chapter 17 Cultural and Amenity Services.pdf.txt Chapter 23 Island Systems.pdf.txt Chapter 5 Ecosystem Conditions and Human Well−being.pdf.txt Chapter 6 Vulnerable Peoples and Places.pdf.txt Fisher−2013−Strengthening_conceptual_foundations_Analysing_frameworks_for_e Stallman−2011−Ecosystem_services_in_agriculture_determining_suitability_for_pr Power−2010−Ecosystem_services_and_agriculture_tradeoffs_and_synergies.pdf.t Saad−2013−Land_use_impacts_on_freshwater_regulation_erosion_regulation_an Mitchell−2013−Linking_Landscape_Connectivity_and_Ecosystem_Service_Provisi Mann−2012−Ecosystem_Service_Value_and_Agricultural_Conversion_in_the_Am Maskell−2013−Exploring_the_ecological_constraints_to_multiple_ecosystem_serv Cardinale−2013−Biodiversity_simultaneously_enhances_the_production_and_stab Jax−2013−Ecosystem_services_and_ethics.pdf.txt Chapter 28 Synthesis Condition and Trends in Systems and Services Trade−offs fo Chen−2013−Changes_in_land_useland_cover_and_ecosystem_services_in_Cent Chapter 1 MA Conceptual Framework.pdf.txt Nelson−2005−Chapter 3 Drivers of ecosystem change summary chapter.pdf.txt Chapter 2 Analytical Approaches for Assessing Ecosystem Condition and Human W Chapter 14 Human Health Ecosystem Regulation of Infectious Diseases.pdf.txt Chapter 24 Mountain Systems.pdf.txt Zheng−−Benefits_costs_and_livelihood_implications_of_a_regional_payment_for_ Sircely−2012−Biodiversity_and_Ecosystem_Multi−Functionality_Observed_Relatio Langerwisch−2012−Potential_effects_of_climate_change_on_inundation_patterns_ Chapter 13 Climate and Air Quality.pdf.txt Qiu−−Spatial_interactions_among_ecosystem_services_in_an_urbanizing_agricult Chapter 22 Dryland Systems.pdf.txt Chapter 7 Fresh Water.pdf.txt Chapter 4 Biodiversity.pdf.txt Chapter 18 Marine Fisheries Systems.pdf.txt Chapter 12 Nutrient Cycling.pdf.txt Vidal−Abarca_Gutie..rrez−2013−Which_are_what_is_their_status_and_what_can_ Chapter 25 Polar Systems.pdf.txt Turner−2012−Consequences_of_spatial_heterogeneity_for_ecosystem_services_i Bai−2012−Grazing_alters_ecosystem_functioning_and_CNP_stoichiometry_of_gra Chapter 10 New Products and Industries from Biodiversity.pdf.txt Acreman−2013−How_Wetlands_Affect_Floods.pdf.txt Chapter 16 Regulation of Natural Hazards Floods and Fires.pdf.txt Chapter 11 Biodiversity Regulation of Ecosystem Services.pdf.txt Schmitt−2013−Capturing_Ecosystem_Services_Stakeholders'_Preferences_and_T Chapter 21 Forest and Woodland Systems.pdf.txt Chapter 27 Urban Systems.pdf.txt Chapter 26 Cultivated Systems.pdf.txt Chapter 19 Coastal Systems.pdf.txt 0.2 0.6 Value 02000 Color Key and Histogram Count
  • 9. Topics matching Ecosystem Services Topics Words Ecosystem Processes Soil formation 12 species, fallows, soil, biomass, grazed, fallow Primary production 19 soil, carbon, species, freshwater, carbon Nutrient cycling 4 nutrient, organic, fertility, soil, ocean, cycling Water cycling 39 discharge, amazon, inundation, basing, slope Biodiversity 6 species, plant, richness, biodiversity, services Provisioning services Freshwater 75 freshwater, renewable, supply, freshwater, river Food crops 5 nutrition, countries, livestock, africa, health Livestock 11 grazing, steppe, soil, ground, biomass, pools Fisheries 27 marine, fisheries, fish, coastal, system, ocean Wild animals and plants products Timber 2 forest, countries, carbon, plantations, trees, fao Wood fuel 14 timeber, products, tao, forest, fuelwood, cotton Feed, fuel and fiber crops 14 timeber, products, tao, forest, fuelwood, cotton Hydropower Regulating services Air quality regulation 29 atmospheric, emissions, carbon, warming Climate regulation 29 atmospheric, emissions, carbon, warming Water purification 73 waste, chemicals, organic, health, exposure Regulation of soil erosion 72 cycle, soil, spatial, erosion, groundwater Pest and disease 1 disease, health, infectious,malaria, transmission Pollination 45 pollination, provision, benefits, farmers, landscape Natural hazards 67 fire, events, floods, drivers, wetlands, coastal Cultural services 41 landscapes, tourism, traditional, knowledge, heritage Recreation Aesthetic values Knowledge and educational values Spiritual and religious
  • 10. Topics = 80 Corpus = 812 papersTopics detection Soilformation Primaryproduction Nutrientcycling Watercycling Biodiversity Freshwater Foodcrops Livestock Fisheries Timber Woodfuel Climateregulation Waterregulation Regulationofsoilerosion Pestanddiseaseregulation Pollination Naturalhazardregulation Cultural West Antarctic IceSheet Collapse Tundra to Forest Termohaline circulation Steppe to tundra Soil structure Soil salinization Sea grass collapse Salt marshes River channel change Peatlands Monsoon weakening Marine foodwebs Marine eutrophication Mangroves collapse Kelps transitions Hypoxia Greenland Forest to savannas Floating plants Fisheries collapse Eutrophication Encroachment Dry land degradation Coral transitions Bivalves collapse Arctic Sea Ice 0.1 0.4 Value 0250 Color Key and Histogram Count Soilformation Primaryproduction Nutrientcycling Watercycling Biodiversity Freshwater Foodcrops Livestock Fisheries Timber Woodfuel Climateregulation Waterregulation Regulationofsoilerosion Pestanddiseaseregulation Pollination Naturalhazardregulation Cultural West Antarctic IceSheet Collapse Tundra to Forest Termohaline circulation Steppe to tundra Soil structure Soil salinization Sea grass collapse Salt marshes River channel change Peatlands Monsoon weakening Marine foodwebs Marine eutrophication Mangroves collapse Kelps transitions Hypoxia Greenland Forest to savannas Floating plants Fisheries collapse Eutrophication Encroachment Dry land degradation Coral transitions Bivalves collapse Arctic Sea Ice 0 0.4 1 Value 180 Color Key and Histogram Count Human Readers Computer reading
  • 11. Soilformation Primaryproduction Nutrientcycling Watercycling Biodiversity Freshwater Foodcrops Livestock Fisheries Timber Woodfuel Climateregulation Waterregulation Regulationofsoilerosion Pestanddiseaseregulation Pollination Naturalhazardregulation Cultural West Antarctic IceSheet Collapse Tundra to Forest Termohaline circulation Steppe to tundra Soil structure Soil salinization Sea grass collapse Salt marshes River channel change Peatlands Monsoon weakening Marine foodwebs Marine eutrophication Mangroves collapse Kelps transitions Hypoxia Greenland Forest to savannas Floating plants Fisheries collapse Eutrophication Encroachment Dry land degradation Coral transitions Bivalves collapse Arctic Sea Ice Topics = 80 Corpus = 812 papersTopics detection False positives Soilformation Primaryproduction Nutrientcycling Watercycling Biodiversity Freshwater Foodcrops Livestock Fisheries Timber Woodfuel Climateregulation Waterregulation Regulationofsoilerosion Pestanddiseaseregulation Pollination Naturalhazardregulation Cultural West Antarctic IceSheet Collapse Tundra to Forest Termohaline circulation Steppe to tundra Soil structure Soil salinization Sea grass collapse Salt marshes River channel change Peatlands Monsoon weakening Marine foodwebs Marine eutrophication Mangroves collapse Kelps transitions Hypoxia Greenland Forest to savannas Floating plants Fisheries collapse Eutrophication Encroachment Dry land degradation Coral transitions Bivalves collapse Arctic Sea Ice False negatives
  • 12. Zooming problem Ecosystem services categories make sense for MEA authors but not necessarily for other scientist, readers or… computers.
  • 13. Concluding remarks • It’s hard to make students do homework, but even harder to make your computer do it automatically for you…Errors • Broad categories such as supporting & cultural services are hard to identify, we did much better with regulating services. • Our results open the possibility of using text mining for monitoring trends on ecosystem services at larger scales and real time. Soilformation Primaryproduction Nutrientcycling Watercycling Biodiversity Freshwater Foodcrops Livestock Fisheries Timber Woodfuel Climateregulation Waterregulation Regulationofsoilerosion Pestanddiseaseregulation Pollination Naturalhazardregulation Cultural West Antarctica Ice Sheet collapse ( Tundra to forest (17) Thermohaline circulation (26) Steppe to tundra (10) Soil structure (2) Soil salinization (7) Sea grass collapse (6) Salt marshes (17) River channel change (22) Peatlands (21) Monsoon weakening (9) Marine foodwebs (50) Marine Eutrophication (8) Mangroves collapse (6) Kelps transitions (11) Hypoxia (7) Greenland (20) Forest to savannas (39) Floating plants (4) Fisheries collapse (75) Eutrophication (20) Encroachment (12) Dry land degradation (26) Coral transitions (33) Bivalves collapse (13) Arctic Sea Ice (19) 0 0.4 1 Value 215 Color Key and Histogram Count
  • 14. Questions?? e-mail: juan.rocha@su.se twitter: @juanrocha slides: http://criticaltransitions.wordpress.com/ | data: www.regimeshifts.rog
  • 15. Subscribe  to  our  newsletter   www.stockholmresilience.su.se/subscribe   Thank  you!