Abstract Environmental cataclysms, their increasing frequency and amplitude, as well as their consequences, create huge challenges for the population of all countries in the world without exception. Governments take measures to create systems of early warning, prevention, and prompt response to the challenges of natural disasters by developing and implementing targeted state programs. However, imperfect public administration mechanisms and, primarily, corruption, pose additional risks of inefficiency, the impact of which can nullify and discredit the implementation of state programs to combat environmental disasters. Speed of decision-making and implementation takes higher priority over standards of transparency, accountability, equal access to information, responsibility, expediency, and cost-effectiveness. The protocols and procedures of operation of public organizations and officials should be developed not only taking into account anti-corruption standards, but also with high moral and ethical standards, because in crisis conditions the quality of public servants’ performance depends more on their commitment to moral and ethical ideals. Simplify the understanding of the high importance of moral and ethical characteristics of a public servant can be achieved through the use of cross-disciplinary models in relation to a particular position of an official.

1. REDUCING CORRUPTION RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHALLENGES
Azat Irmanov,
PhD student, Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan
Abstract
Environmental cataclysms, their increasing frequency and amplitude, as well as their consequences,
create huge challenges for the population of all countries in the world without exception. Governments
take measures to create systems of early warning, prevention, and prompt response to the challenges of
natural disasters by developing and implementing targeted state programs.
However, imperfect public administration mechanisms and, primarily, corruption, pose additional risks
of inefficiency, the impact of which can nullify and discredit the implementation of state programs to
combat environmental disasters. Speed of decision-making and implementation takes higher priority
over standards of transparency, accountability, equal access to information, responsibility, expediency,
and cost-effectiveness. The protocols and procedures of operation of public organizations and officials
should be developed not only taking into account anti-corruption standards, but also with high moral
and ethical standards, because in crisis conditions the quality of public servants’ performance depends
more on their commitment to moral and ethical ideals. Simplify the understanding of the high
importance of moral and ethical characteristics of a public servant can be achieved through the use of
cross-disciplinary models in relation to a particular position of an official.
Key words: Climate challenge, corruption risks, hierarchy of needs, migration pressure, rehabilitation
risks.
Introduction
Environmental changes, the disasters they cause, and environmental catastrophes pose enormous risks
to people, both at the global and regional scales.
Methodology

2. Various models have been developed to understand the phenomenon of corruption, including the
Opportunity, Pressure and Rationalization triangulation model. Despite its universality, it cannot fully
describe the circumstances in which the occurrence of corrupt interaction seems highly probable at all
times. For a more substantive application of this model, the author made an attempt to use the
Hierarchy of Needs model of behavior, which was formulated for the needs of market research and
allowed to conceptualize the motives of buyers from different social groups. This refraction of the
corruption triangulation model allowed to provide a new explanation of why corrupt interactions are
most likely in a specific situation and, perhaps more interestingly, what role individual spiritual values
can play for the quality of their decisions, especially in critical circumstances, like a migration crisis
triggered by environmental disasters.
Highlights
According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center, more than 10,700 disasters occurred
worldwide between 2011 and 2021, displacing more than 245 million people (Figure 1). This is about 3%
of the entire population of the Globe. During the same period, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and
Uzbekistan have experienced 42 natural disasters that displaced more than 196,800 residents of these
countries, which is only 0.3% of the total population.
Figure 1. The number of people internally displaced due to different kinds of natural disasters in 2011-
2021 in the world and Central Asian countries.
All over the world

3. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan
While the Central Asian region can be considered relatively calm in comparison to the magnitude of
consequences caused by natural disasters leading to migration pressures, it is evident that the scale of
these consequences is becoming increasingly destructive and affecting a growing number of people
(Figure 2).
Figure 2: Number of disasters and internally displaced people in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan,
and Uzbekistan
21.5
40.3
30.4
104.6
7
13
10
12
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2011-2013 2014-2016 2017-2019 2020-2021
number of displaced persons (thousands) number of catastrophic events

4. Furthermore, forecasts for the entire region, particularly Uzbekistan, remain unfavorable. For instance,
according to UNICEF estimates regarding children's exposure to climate and environmental shocks, 330
million children worldwide are vulnerable to at least five significant categories of climate and
environmental hazards and pressures. Uzbekistan is classified among the countries facing extremely
high risks (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Country categorization by the level of exposure of the child population to environmental and
climate change risks.
Corruption risks associated with crisis response measures
It is well-known that the consequences of natural disasters lead to the following:
1. Destruction of housing, civil, and economic infrastructure, necessitating large-scale
rehabilitation programs by governments to restore the damaged infrastructure.
2. The formation of risks associated with unsustainable agricultural production, potentially
resulting in the loss of suitability for farming in certain areas. This, in turn, threatens the food
security of countries and regions.
3. Disruption of transportation infrastructure can seriously impede the timely and complete
delivery of humanitarian aid, especially during the acute phase of the crisis, affecting the
distribution of food, raw materials, and supplies needed for the rehabilitation of territories and
infrastructure.
4. Some areas may become unsuitable for human habitation for an extended period, causing
people to lose the opportunity to return to their former permanent residences.

5. When considering these consequences from a governance perspective, two key areas prone to
corruption and inefficiency in crisis situations can be identified:
I. Preparatory, Investment, and Rehabilitation Programs: These programs should initially focus on
preparing an institutional system to respond to crisis situations, including reserves, storage facilities,
special equipment, and training. Large-scale capital investments in housing and infrastructure
construction, typically required within a short timeframe, should come later, utilizing state reserve funds
and the budget.
II. Organization of Administrative Processes and Procedures to Ensure: (a) Access to scarce resources
such as land, raw materials, food, medical services, medicines, energy, and other critical goods and
services. (b) Access to housing, material assistance, and social protection provided by the state,
primarily for victims as part of support or compensation for losses, as well as other socially vulnerable
segments of the population as part of crisis response programs. (c) Access to investment and financial
resources for restoring or adapting business activities.
Migration flows triggered by cataclysms can be unidirectional for various reasons, including the
abandonment of uninhabitable areas, unrecoverable loss of property and livelihoods, and the
unrecoverable devastation of economic systems etc. Host countries or territories must be capable of
adapting to the increased demand for housing, food, and jobs on a permanent basis. Consequently, the
economic systems of these countries will need to adapt as well. This adaptation should not only consider
changes in the labor force structure in specific regions but also the market for the goods, services, and
works they produce. Inability to align the region's production structure with the demand in key markets
can increase the risks of unsustainability for investments in rehabilitation and economic development.
The success of the crisis response depends on the extent of the negative impact of corruption
Preparation for critical situations, as well as the adaptation and overcoming of their consequences,
including the induced migration processes, necessitate a holistic consideration of a myriad of diverse
factors. Ideally, many of these factors should already be integrated into economic, investment, and
infrastructure policies during periods of stability. To address the trends in global and regional
environmental changes, countries should formulate national and regional plans and protocols for
responding to threats and mitigating adverse impacts.
However, reality often shows that governments worldwide do not consistently prioritize environmental
risks and their potential consequences. An illustrative example is the statement made by Ms. Michelle
Bachelet, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, during her report to the 48th session of the
Human Rights Council in September 2021:
"Investing in equitable restoration can play a crucial role in building a healthier future. Unfortunately,
this approach is not actively and consistently supported... A study by the IMF, UNEP, and others found
that only 18 percent of the funds allocated to restoration measures (during a pandemic) in the world's
50 largest economies are spent on ecological issues." [1].
Each country develops its own crisis preparedness and response programs, prioritizing problems based
on their importance and urgency relative to available human, material, and financial resources. As a

6. result, long-term issues with less immediate and measurable impacts may be deprioritized in favor of
more local, visible, and acute economic development problems that directly affect the well-being of the
general population. This can occasionally lead to authorities neglecting preparedness for climate and
environmental change, especially in countries that have not experienced significant catastrophic events
in recent history.
If and when environmental concerns gain public attention, the effectiveness of decision-making in
addressing these concerns becomes the next challenge.
As shown in Table 1, the success of crisis response mechanisms depends significantly on several
dimensions:
1. Relevance and Comprehensive Planning: This involves correctly identifying risks, identifying
system vulnerabilities, formulating strategies to address vulnerabilities with action plans, and
estimating the required resources.
2. Institutional Preparedness: The ability of institutions to effectively execute preparatory
activities.
3. Resource Preservation and Management Quality: Effectiveness in building and managing
reserves, maintaining appropriate readiness levels of essential infrastructure (shelters, rapid
deployment hospitals, food storage facilities, and critical supplies).
4. Effectiveness of Risk Monitoring and Forecasting Mechanisms: The integration of these
mechanisms with response plan development and adoption centers.
5. Implementation Effectiveness: This encompasses executing response and rehabilitation
measures during construction, repair, supply and delivery of material resources, provision of
medical assistance, accommodation of victims, and management of refugee flows, among other
actions.
Each of these measurements is influenced by:
1. Quality of Human Resources: Including competencies, motivation, personal values, and
priorities.
2. Quality of Regulations: Availability of standards, protocols, rules, and norms for evaluating
adequacy in each measurement area and the requirements imposed upon them.
3. Quality of Communications: Efficiency of horizontal and vertical communications, as well as
interdepartmental and intradepartmental management effectiveness and control over
personnel activity.
4. Quality of Information Flow: Ensuring the reliability and timeliness of information flows."

7. These dimensions are reflected in the left column of the logical matrix of the effects of corruption in
Table 1.
Furthermore, the quality of human resources plays a dominant role as it determines the efficiency of
utilizing all other resources.
All these factors are susceptible to the negative effects of corruption. For example:
1. Ineffective management of human resources can result in key positions being filled not based on
competence but on criteria such as loyalty to patrons, familial or local ties.
2. A lack of competence at the institutional level can lead to a loss of relevance in developed plans and
responses. Protocols and standards may be formulated based on feasibility rather than necessity in
critical situations. The importance of personality can begin to overshadow functional purpose in
interagency interactions, potentially resulting in weak relationships between agency heads that can
affect the quality and comprehensiveness of cooperation, often manifesting as superficial oversight.
3. The prevalence of systemic corruption can lead to an overestimation of costs while diminishing their
actual impact and results. It can also undermine the readiness control system by distorting information
flows, creating a false appearance of preparedness for a crisis. Vertical information flows and
Dimensions to define
success of crisis
response system
Corruption impact
through low
quality of Human
Resources
Quality of
information flows
Quality of reporting /
communication
Quality of standards
Relevance to threats and the
stage of in-depth planning
Untimeliness,
inadequacy,
superficiality, focus on
resource development
Superficial, easily
achievable,
uninformative,
irrelevant
Superficial, avoiding
responsibility
Superficial, avoiding
responsibility
Institutional preparedness. Low quality of
preparation, imitation
of readiness
Documented as “ready
to respond”. False
reporting
Lack of communication.
Incomplete and erroneous
information.
False reporting,
misinformation.
Quality of Preserving /
Conserving Resources.
Incomplete and /or low
quality stockpiles,
conservations
The condition of
reserves is below
standards.
Distorted coordination.
Prioritization of reserves
for affiliatees.
False reporting,
misinformation.
Effectiveness of risk
monitoring and forecasting
mechanisms
The notification is
untimely, focuses on
avoiding responsibility
Simplified. Imitation
of monitoring to
reduce related costs,
because the resources
and funds allocated for
monitoring activities
are embezzled
Untimely reporting to
evade responsibility,
conceal unpreparedness.
Incomplete or false
reporting to evade
responsibility, conceal
unpreparedness.
Response Effectiveness Focuses on avoiding
responsibility.
Embezzlement of
resources allocated for
crisis response.
Ignoring the
standards.
Justifying weak
response by
unforeseen
circumstances,
suddenness of crisis,
urgency of response.
Prioritization of resource
allocation for affiliates
benefit.
Resource needs and costs
inflated.
Incomplete or false
reporting in order to
evade responsibility,
conceal
unpreparedness.

8. accountability may be structured in a way that reduces the likelihood of penalties from senior
management rather than reflecting the actual situation.
4. During moments of crisis, corruption can negatively affect victims who may not receive the necessary
support.
Approaches to identifying critical focal points for anti-corruption mechanisms in crisis response are
essential. As observed, when the management system is significantly corroded by corruption, risk
management solutions often fail to achieve their objectives, time and resources are inefficiently utilized,
victims do not receive adequate assistance, and territorial recovery proceeds at a slower pace than
expected.
In this context, it's essential to remember that, like any other crime, corruption is a behavioral pattern
triggered by specific conditions. Donald Cressey's model of triangulation of occupational fraud factors in
the performance of official duties, developed in the 1950s, accurately describes these conditions (see
Fig. 4: Triangulation of Corruption Factors) [2]."
Figure 4. Triangulation of occupational fraud and corruption factors.
According to the model, corruption is the result of a combination of factors, which, conventionally, are
grouped into three large groups.
First, there is the possibility of commitment-which includes a lack of control, accountability,
transparency, responsibility, and a high Concentration of discretionary power.
Secondly, these are circumstances that create psycho-emotional pressure on the employee. These
include such circumstances as
• Financial difficulties or liabilities,
• the pursuit of higher incomes,
• “money = respect and success,” the dominance of mercantilist and materialist values in culture
and society, etc.
Opportunity
Lack of control, accountability, transparency;
wide discretionary powers of the employee...
Rationalization
• Others would produce and deliver lower
quality, but this supplier I know personally, and
I can trust him…
• It is an act of gratitude, not a bribe…
• My salary is miserable, and responsibilities are
high…
• Everybody does this, why can’t I? …
• I am just a link in a chain…
Pressure or Motive
Financial difficulties or obligations, desire for higher incomes, desire
for a higher quality of life or bigger respect from community…
Fraud and
Corruption

9. Third, there are arguments by which the employee justifies his action and convinces himself that he is
doing the right thing, even though he is breaking the law. In practice, arguments such as these may be
heard:
• Others would produce and deliver lower quality, but this supplier I know personally, and I can
trust him…
• It is an act of gratitude, not a bribe…
• My salary is miserable, and responsibilities are high…
• Everybody does this, why can’t I? …
• I am just a link in a chain…
In combination, the presence of these factors makes the committing corrupt act very likely.
The complexity of combating and preventing corruption also arises from the fact that not all its forms
are explicitly addressed in national legislation or outlined in official instructions. Codes of conduct, in
essence, are voluntary documents that provide a significant degree of discretion to authorities in
determining whether a particular situation aligns with these rules. Consequently, an individual who finds
themselves in a situation where they could derive corrupt benefits, feel confident in not being held
legally accountable, and, at the same time, not technically violating certain procedure of public service
delivery, takes a decision based solely on personal moral and ethical principles and beliefs. These
principles are largely shaped by the prevailing societal norms and rules.
Therefore, for a deeper understanding of the likelihood of corruption risks, we can apply Maslow's
hierarchy of needs to examine a typical situation with a high risk of corruption. As an example, consider
the scenario at a border control point during a migration crisis triggered by ecological disasters or
military conflicts (see Figure 5).
Figure 5. A look at Maslow’s concept of the hierarchy of needs through the prism of the corruption
triangle categories applied to the case of refugee crossing border
Refugee
х
х
х
v
v
Hyerarchy
of needs
trancendence
/ spiritual
Esteem
Belongingness
Safety
Physiological
Border
control
inspector
x
v
v
x
x
- spiritual needs are not the
priority
- Esteem is suppressed.
- belongs to a vulnerable social
group
- is in a position with a high
safety risk.
- is in a position with limited
ability to meet physiological
needs
- in case of low priority of spiritual
values, rationalization to corruption is
simplified.
- enjoys the feeling of being important
person.
- belonging to a social group of those
“in power”
- Feels safe.
- Has no problems with meeting
physiological needs. Or he/she can
satisfy physiological needs at the
expense of a refugee.

10. Imagine, at the border control point, a refugee stands in line with his family members in a vulnerable
stance, along with hundreds of other refugees. Their physiological and safety needs are the top priority
for the refugees and their families. In contrast, the border control inspector is in a different situation. A
border control inspector has no issues with satisfying personal physiological needs and mostly
experiences no threats to personal safety. His/her needs are largely at the level of belonging (such as
belonging to a community of wealthy or successful people when success is measured by wealth) and
esteem (which includes the ability to generate wealth and influence others' destinies). These factors can
be explained as "Pressure" within Cressey's model.
During the border crossing crisis, all human resources at the border control point would be engaged and
highly likely stressed to ensure the refugee flow is processed. It is not a trivial task for an Officer in
Charge to ensure effective supervision and the highest ethical standards control for a prolonged period
of time under such stressful circumstances. And that enables the "Opportunity" Factor. If the inspector
is not in a position to be appropriately supervised, nor held accountable (and this oftenly happens in
critical situations), the only factor capable of preventing him/her from forcing others to pay a bribe are
personal moral barriers – which means, that high morale prevents "Rationalization" of solicitating or
forcing to pay a bribe.
Thus, rationalization depends on a complex of moral values that a person acquires during their life. To
resist the "Opportunity" and "Pressure," the Border control inspector should be following the highest
level of their personal needs – self-actualization, transcendence, or spiritual needs, such as a
commitment to helping others, upholding justice, fulfilling duty, etc. Therefore, it is fair to say that
ethics and culture are both the first and the last barrier against corruption. Thus, to enable the authority
to effectively oppose to the pressure and opportunity factors, we need to upshift his/her needs to the
highest level in the hierarchy – transcendental or spiritual needs. And those will form a different pattern
on the needs of lower levels in hierarchy.
It is necessary to note that the culture within the organization cannot be formed in isolation from the
general attitude towards the phenomenon of corruption within the entire system of public
administration, as well as within civil society and entrepreneurship.
Thus, it is important to form a culture in society in which success, respect, and high esteem from society
would be ensured only if a person conforms to high moral qualities and ethical norms of behavior. It is
necessary to break the stereotype of the perception that wealth deserves respect in itself, regardless of
the ways in which it is acquired.
The system of training for the crisis response capacity plays an equally important role. Such
competencies as empathy, social intelligence, commitment to serving society, protection of citizens
should be formed in civil servants and encouraged along with other professional skills and
competencies.
Hence, it can be seen that in order to change the system of values in society, the state must actively
involve nongovernmental nonprofit organizations, activists, and opinion leaders. Together with them, it
is possible to develop general recommendations and guidelines for employees of the media and cultural
sphere. Evidence-based principles of shaping negative public opinion about corruption should be used as
a tool of “soft power” and be reflected in the production of modern literature, music, and cinema.

11. References
1. Экологический кризис: Верховный комиссар призвала государства-члены Совета по
правам человека взять на себя роль лидеров // ООН [сайт]. URL:
https://www.ohchr.org/ru/taxonomy/term/1349?amp%3Bpage=75&limit=all&page=8 (дата
обращения: 09.02.2023).
2. Kassem R, Higson A. The new fraud triangle model. Journal of Emerging Trends in Economics and
Management Sciences. 2012;3(3): 191–195.