The document discusses new year's resolutions and why people form them. It also examines why resolutions are often not maintained. It then explores concepts related to envisioning the future, including definitions of future as both an adjective and noun. It discusses futuring as identifying and evaluating possible future events. Finally, it provides an excerpt on fragmented thinking and the importance of seeing connections and systems.
Billion Dollar Proposal for Applied Cultural EvolutionJoe Brewer
Let me begin by acknowledging those who came before me. The runner-up for a 1 billion euro grant from the European Union nearly a decade ago was FuturICT with their vision for modeling complex social systems to avoid (or manage) future economic collapses. So I am not the first person to propose that a massive effort is needed to (a) integrate the social sciences; and (b) do so with motivation to apply what is learned to address extremely difficult problems in the world. With that said, let me now offer my billion dollar proposal that follows in FuturICT’s footsteps. At the time they were competing for substantial funding, I was working with the International Centre for Earth Simulation to build its billion dollar (over a decade) vision for a high-performance computing facility that models the entire Earth in its full complexity. It is from these projects that I draw inspiration for this essay.
Also, a fact that should cause you to sit up straight. The annual budget for CERN (the high-energy particle accelerator in Geneva, Switzerland) was roughly 1.2 billion dollars in 2017. So what I am calling for here is what the European Union spends every single year on the search for fundamental particles for all of humanity to instead address the global ecological crisis and safeguard the future of our species.
Think about this for a moment before you continue reading this essay. It really should cause you to pause and reflect about our current priorities as human beings.
What I propose now is a framework for guiding humanity through the sustainability bottleneck as we navigate the planetary-scale systemic collapse outlined in the previous two essays in this series. If you want to hear me talk through this proposal in a recorded talk, I invite you to watch the 90 minute video on YouTube for a version that I presented to the cognitive science department at the University of California, Merced earlier this year. This essay will go into more detail about the vision I’ve been cultivating for a global network of culture design labs that—as argued in previous essays—I no longer believe is possible to build in the world.
Why I Am No Longer Attempting to Build A Rigorous Science of Social ChangeJoe Brewer
Let me start by saying that literally every social problem humanity now confronts will benefit from taking a rigorous, evidence-based approach to developing interventions that work. If I believe this—you might wonder—why would I title an article this way?
The answer is simply that I have been trying to manifest into the world a science of large-scale social change for 18 years. During that time I have repeatedly found that almost no one gives preference to being effective over the feeling of “being right.” This has been true as I’ve interacted with academic researchers, the staff of numerous nonprofit organizations, program officers and boards of directors at foundations, government personnel providing public services, and among social-impact businesses of various kinds.
So I am shifting gears and no longer attempting to build this grand visionary work. I simply don’t see it as feasible anymore and am going to introspect deeply about what I might do that is of service in times as serious as these when in my heart I now accept that my life’s work cannot succeed. In the spirit of the foundational challenge named in the opening of this essay, I invite you to prove me wrong. Critique and analyze my assumptions. Gather your own data to confront and challenge the argument laid out here. See if you can find a way to birth such an ambitious vision where I have failed to do so.
I would much rather be wrong and see effective solutions emerge than to be right and feel the hollow gratification of saying “I told you so” as the world goes into full-scale systemic collapse in the next few decades.
Onward, fellow humans.
A series of graphics from integralMENTORS integral UrbanHub work on IMP and Thriveable Cities This work shows the graphics from a dynamic deck that accompany a presentation on Visions & WorldViews and Thriveable Cities. The history of the co-evolution of cities, evolving WorldViews, Visions & Mindsets in urban Habitats and technology is presented in an integral framework. Integral theory is simply explained as it relates to these themes. This volume is part of an ongoing series of guides to integrally inform practitioners.
A series of graphics from integralMENTORS integral UrbanHub work on IMP and Thriveable Cities
These books show the graphics from a dynamic deck that accompany a presentation on Visions & WorldViews and Thriveable Cities. The history of the co-evolution of cities, evolving WorldViews, Visions & Mindsets in Urban Habitats and technology is presented in an integral framework.
Integral theory is simply explained as it relates to these themes see UH 2 & UH 3 for more detail.
These volumes are part of an ongoing series of guides to integrally inform practitioners.
A series of graphics from integralMENTORS integral UrbanHub work on IMP and Thriveable Cities
This work shows the graphics from a dynamic deck that accompany a presentation on Visions & WorldViews and Thriveable Cities. The history of the co-evolution of cities, evolving WorldViews, Visions & Mindsets in urban Habitats and technology is presented in an integral framework.
Integral theory is simply explained as it relates to these themes.
This volume is part of an ongoing series of guides to integrally inform practitioners.
Billion Dollar Proposal for Applied Cultural EvolutionJoe Brewer
Let me begin by acknowledging those who came before me. The runner-up for a 1 billion euro grant from the European Union nearly a decade ago was FuturICT with their vision for modeling complex social systems to avoid (or manage) future economic collapses. So I am not the first person to propose that a massive effort is needed to (a) integrate the social sciences; and (b) do so with motivation to apply what is learned to address extremely difficult problems in the world. With that said, let me now offer my billion dollar proposal that follows in FuturICT’s footsteps. At the time they were competing for substantial funding, I was working with the International Centre for Earth Simulation to build its billion dollar (over a decade) vision for a high-performance computing facility that models the entire Earth in its full complexity. It is from these projects that I draw inspiration for this essay.
Also, a fact that should cause you to sit up straight. The annual budget for CERN (the high-energy particle accelerator in Geneva, Switzerland) was roughly 1.2 billion dollars in 2017. So what I am calling for here is what the European Union spends every single year on the search for fundamental particles for all of humanity to instead address the global ecological crisis and safeguard the future of our species.
Think about this for a moment before you continue reading this essay. It really should cause you to pause and reflect about our current priorities as human beings.
What I propose now is a framework for guiding humanity through the sustainability bottleneck as we navigate the planetary-scale systemic collapse outlined in the previous two essays in this series. If you want to hear me talk through this proposal in a recorded talk, I invite you to watch the 90 minute video on YouTube for a version that I presented to the cognitive science department at the University of California, Merced earlier this year. This essay will go into more detail about the vision I’ve been cultivating for a global network of culture design labs that—as argued in previous essays—I no longer believe is possible to build in the world.
Why I Am No Longer Attempting to Build A Rigorous Science of Social ChangeJoe Brewer
Let me start by saying that literally every social problem humanity now confronts will benefit from taking a rigorous, evidence-based approach to developing interventions that work. If I believe this—you might wonder—why would I title an article this way?
The answer is simply that I have been trying to manifest into the world a science of large-scale social change for 18 years. During that time I have repeatedly found that almost no one gives preference to being effective over the feeling of “being right.” This has been true as I’ve interacted with academic researchers, the staff of numerous nonprofit organizations, program officers and boards of directors at foundations, government personnel providing public services, and among social-impact businesses of various kinds.
So I am shifting gears and no longer attempting to build this grand visionary work. I simply don’t see it as feasible anymore and am going to introspect deeply about what I might do that is of service in times as serious as these when in my heart I now accept that my life’s work cannot succeed. In the spirit of the foundational challenge named in the opening of this essay, I invite you to prove me wrong. Critique and analyze my assumptions. Gather your own data to confront and challenge the argument laid out here. See if you can find a way to birth such an ambitious vision where I have failed to do so.
I would much rather be wrong and see effective solutions emerge than to be right and feel the hollow gratification of saying “I told you so” as the world goes into full-scale systemic collapse in the next few decades.
Onward, fellow humans.
A series of graphics from integralMENTORS integral UrbanHub work on IMP and Thriveable Cities This work shows the graphics from a dynamic deck that accompany a presentation on Visions & WorldViews and Thriveable Cities. The history of the co-evolution of cities, evolving WorldViews, Visions & Mindsets in urban Habitats and technology is presented in an integral framework. Integral theory is simply explained as it relates to these themes. This volume is part of an ongoing series of guides to integrally inform practitioners.
A series of graphics from integralMENTORS integral UrbanHub work on IMP and Thriveable Cities
These books show the graphics from a dynamic deck that accompany a presentation on Visions & WorldViews and Thriveable Cities. The history of the co-evolution of cities, evolving WorldViews, Visions & Mindsets in Urban Habitats and technology is presented in an integral framework.
Integral theory is simply explained as it relates to these themes see UH 2 & UH 3 for more detail.
These volumes are part of an ongoing series of guides to integrally inform practitioners.
A series of graphics from integralMENTORS integral UrbanHub work on IMP and Thriveable Cities
This work shows the graphics from a dynamic deck that accompany a presentation on Visions & WorldViews and Thriveable Cities. The history of the co-evolution of cities, evolving WorldViews, Visions & Mindsets in urban Habitats and technology is presented in an integral framework.
Integral theory is simply explained as it relates to these themes.
This volume is part of an ongoing series of guides to integrally inform practitioners.
A presentation and forecasting session given by Elizabeth Merritt, founding director of the Center for the Future of Museums, and Peter Bishop, associate professor of strategic foresight at the University of Houston, at the 2010 Texas Association of Museums conference.
The Future of Humanity Nick Bostrom Future of Humanit.docxbarbaran11
The Future of Humanity
Nick Bostrom
Future of Humanity Institute
Faculty of Philosophy & James Martin 21st Century School
Oxford University
www.nickbostrom.com
[Complete draft circulated (2007)]
[Published in New Waves in Philosophy of Technology, eds. Jan-Kyrre Berg Olsen, Evan
Selinger, & Soren Riis (New York: Palgrave McMillan, 2009)]
[Reprinted in the journal Geopolitics, History, and International Relations, forthcoming]
Abstract
The future of humanity is often viewed as a topic for idle speculation. Yet our beliefs and
assumptions on this subject matter shape decisions in both our personal lives and public
policy – decisions that have very real and sometimes unfortunate consequences. It is
therefore practically important to try to develop a realistic mode of futuristic thought about
big picture questions for humanity. This paper sketches an overview of some recent attempts
in this direction, and it offers a brief discussion of four families of scenarios for humanity’s
future: extinction, recurrent collapse, plateau, and posthumanity.
The future of humanity as an inescapable topic
In one sense, the future of humanity comprises everything that will ever happen to any
human being, including what you will have for breakfast next Thursday and all the scientific
discoveries that will be made next year. In that sense, it is hardly reasonable to think of the
future of humanity as a topic: it is too big and too diverse to be addressed as a whole in a
single essay, monograph, or even 100-volume book series. It is made into a topic by way of
abstraction. We abstract from details and short-term fluctuations and developments that
affect only some limited aspect of our lives. A discussion about the future of humanity is
about how the important fundamental features of the human condition may change or remain
constant in the long run.
What features of the human condition are fundamental and important? On this there
can be reasonable disagreement. Nonetheless, some features qualify by almost any standard.
For example, whether and when Earth-originating life will go extinct, whether it will
colonize the galaxy, whether human biology will be fundamentally transformed to make us
posthuman, whether machine intelligence will surpass biological intelligence, whether
1
http://www.nickbostrom.com/
population size will explode, and whether quality of life will radically improve or deteriorate:
these are all important fundamental questions about the future of humanity. Less
fundamental questions – for instance, about methodologies or specific technology projections
– are also relevant insofar as they inform our views about more fundamental parameters.
Traditionally, the future of humanity has been a topic for theology. All the major
religions have teachings about the ultimate destiny of humanity or the end of the world.1
Eschatological themes have also been explored by big-name philosopher.
Balanced Scorecard Essay. Balanced scorecard in restaurant Essay Example Top...Brandy Rose
The Balanced Scorecard - 524 Words | Free Essay Example on GraduateWay. ⇉The Balanced Scorecard Essay Essay Example | GraduateWay. (DOC) Balanced Scorecard essay 1000 words 1 | Ani Avanesyan - Academia.edu. Balanced Scorecard Essay - Federal Resume. Adoption of the Balanced Scorecard Essay Example | Topics and Well .... Helpful Balanced Scorecard Template for Strategy Execution | monday.com .... The Balanced Scorecard Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays .... The Balanced Scorecard Concept Essay Example | Topics and Well Written .... Applying balanced scorecard - 282 Words - NerdySeal. 31 Professional Balanced Scorecard Examples & Templates. Balanced Scorecard Essay – Telegraph. How To Make A Balanced Scorecard Template Pdf Template - Riset. Balanced Scorecard of Halifax, Inc Essay Example | Topics and Well .... the balanced scorecard essay. strategy simulation the balanced scorecard harvard. Balanced Scorecard Templates. Essays Balanced Scorecard Bachelor Thesis : — Balanced scorecard .... Balanced essay. Balanced Scorecard essay. 2022-11-05. Balanced Scorecard Approach in Organizations - 1932 Words | Report Example. Figure 1 from Application of the Balanced Scorecard in Higher Education .... balanced scorecard | Pathways International. Walmart Balanced Scorecard | Case Study Example. Balanced Scorecard Example Manufacturing Company. balanced scorecard exle intrafocus | Strategy map, Balance, Example. Online Essay Help | amazonia.fiocruz.br. The Cleveland Clinic's Balanced Scorecards - 5953 Words | Report Example. A Balanced Scorecard. Balanced Scorecard Assignment Report Example | Topics and Well Written ....
Cybernetic/P2P/Gift Economy, Libertarian (Anarchist) Communism, 2nd Tier Thinking (Spiral Dynamics)
It appears from our writings and from our history the first that occurred was debt. There are couples of types of debt and I want to go into this because it has significance for how powerful a concept it is for us.
The first thing is, there was a debt in many religions and many languages. Debt is the same word as sin.
And so, there was a primordial debt, a debt to the universe, a debt to God, a debt to existence.
And in many cultures and many religions, it was expected that you bring sacrifices, whether that was an animal sacrifice, you put time, you prayed, you did something else to try to return your debt to the universe. But ultimately it was understood that the only way you could return the debt to the universe for the resources you were using that made up your body and your existence was through dying.
What's also interesting is because debt as culture evolved and we had civilizations and organization we find that debt and this primordial debt is associated with rulers and governments and they use this same representation saying they were close to God, they were close to and represent society, the community, in order to have contributions of taxes, fees, and so forth.
So, we actually see that debt came first. People loaned things to each other and they didn't worry about getting payback right away, they just wrote it down.
And they said Oh I know you're good for it, next week, next month or whatever. Then we had barter, barter came in because sometimes what you owed was too great. Or because indeed you did want to trade some goods and services. Money came later.
―Lawrence Bishop
We’re going from a closed system to an open system in terms of General Systems Theory. In a closed system, entropy increases; but in an open system, entropy doesn’t necessarily increase. In a closed system, the Malthusian laws apply: you have to struggle for survival – there’s not enough to go around and the predatory types will always get most of the food, shelter and luxuries. In an open system, all of that changes…
An open system is of much more advantage to everybody than a closed system. In a closed system, the best you can do is equalize the misery… On the other hand, an open system creates the possibility of abundance for all…
I want to see everybody rich and in an open system that’s possible…
There would be more diversity. I think there would be cultures created unlike anything we’ve ever had in the primitive conditions of the closed system, the Malthusian crunch on this planet.
―Robert Anton Wilson
The goal of the future is full unemployment, so we can play. That's why we have to destroy the present politico-economic system.
―Arthur C. Clarke
The youth of today are absolutely right in recognizing this nonsense of earning a living.
―Bucky Fuller
Capitalism and socialism are survival economics.
―UPwingers
Ecology & Environment. Kenneth E Boulding.
What can we know and teach about social systems?
Recently I came upon the reassuring news that the year
1910 was a crucial one in human history because this was
the year when the medical profession began to do more
good than harm. I wonder whether the teaching profession has reached this watershed yet.
Dr. Ahmad, Full Text; Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's IdeaDr. Ahmad, Futurist.
Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's Idea, International Conference on Multilateral Cooperation: Emerging Global Scenario, India, 22-24 February 2016. Already cancelled in Scenario 2015 (Improving Scenario Methodology: Theory and Practice), WBS. UK, December 2015, p. 37. http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/subjects/orms/ormsevents/scenario2015/programme/updated_11.12.pdf http://studylib.net/doc/13510220/scenario-2015-improving-scenario-methodology--theory-and-...
Environmental changes coupled with the impact on globalization leading to increasing complexity in many developing strategies, especially on the foresight and futures studies. These trends pose a fundamental question, what is the chalenges of future’s complexity? It seems before understanding the origin of Future Scenario's idea and laws governing the Future Time, we've gone into the application of Scenarios to build better stories about future.
In this paper we deeply investigated following issues in order to demonstrate the effects of the origin of idea's ontology on Future Scenarios;
1. Idea ontology,
2. The origin of creative thinking,
3. Idea nurturing in organizations,
4. Shaping the future time,
5. Scenario planning,
6. Ideas social network (global brain).
This paper is a fundamental research type that makes theory for an applied science. In fact, we seek to bridge an ontology base with an applied knowledge. According to qualitative approach this study because of its data references to valid resources is valid and due to expert's continuous supervisions is reliable.
Conceptual Model that have been emerged from this investigation, shows how we can improve scenario planning ability and what actually should be done to have good scenarios.
A presentation and forecasting session given by Elizabeth Merritt, founding director of the Center for the Future of Museums, and Peter Bishop, associate professor of strategic foresight at the University of Houston, at the 2010 Texas Association of Museums conference.
The Future of Humanity Nick Bostrom Future of Humanit.docxbarbaran11
The Future of Humanity
Nick Bostrom
Future of Humanity Institute
Faculty of Philosophy & James Martin 21st Century School
Oxford University
www.nickbostrom.com
[Complete draft circulated (2007)]
[Published in New Waves in Philosophy of Technology, eds. Jan-Kyrre Berg Olsen, Evan
Selinger, & Soren Riis (New York: Palgrave McMillan, 2009)]
[Reprinted in the journal Geopolitics, History, and International Relations, forthcoming]
Abstract
The future of humanity is often viewed as a topic for idle speculation. Yet our beliefs and
assumptions on this subject matter shape decisions in both our personal lives and public
policy – decisions that have very real and sometimes unfortunate consequences. It is
therefore practically important to try to develop a realistic mode of futuristic thought about
big picture questions for humanity. This paper sketches an overview of some recent attempts
in this direction, and it offers a brief discussion of four families of scenarios for humanity’s
future: extinction, recurrent collapse, plateau, and posthumanity.
The future of humanity as an inescapable topic
In one sense, the future of humanity comprises everything that will ever happen to any
human being, including what you will have for breakfast next Thursday and all the scientific
discoveries that will be made next year. In that sense, it is hardly reasonable to think of the
future of humanity as a topic: it is too big and too diverse to be addressed as a whole in a
single essay, monograph, or even 100-volume book series. It is made into a topic by way of
abstraction. We abstract from details and short-term fluctuations and developments that
affect only some limited aspect of our lives. A discussion about the future of humanity is
about how the important fundamental features of the human condition may change or remain
constant in the long run.
What features of the human condition are fundamental and important? On this there
can be reasonable disagreement. Nonetheless, some features qualify by almost any standard.
For example, whether and when Earth-originating life will go extinct, whether it will
colonize the galaxy, whether human biology will be fundamentally transformed to make us
posthuman, whether machine intelligence will surpass biological intelligence, whether
1
http://www.nickbostrom.com/
population size will explode, and whether quality of life will radically improve or deteriorate:
these are all important fundamental questions about the future of humanity. Less
fundamental questions – for instance, about methodologies or specific technology projections
– are also relevant insofar as they inform our views about more fundamental parameters.
Traditionally, the future of humanity has been a topic for theology. All the major
religions have teachings about the ultimate destiny of humanity or the end of the world.1
Eschatological themes have also been explored by big-name philosopher.
Balanced Scorecard Essay. Balanced scorecard in restaurant Essay Example Top...Brandy Rose
The Balanced Scorecard - 524 Words | Free Essay Example on GraduateWay. ⇉The Balanced Scorecard Essay Essay Example | GraduateWay. (DOC) Balanced Scorecard essay 1000 words 1 | Ani Avanesyan - Academia.edu. Balanced Scorecard Essay - Federal Resume. Adoption of the Balanced Scorecard Essay Example | Topics and Well .... Helpful Balanced Scorecard Template for Strategy Execution | monday.com .... The Balanced Scorecard Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays .... The Balanced Scorecard Concept Essay Example | Topics and Well Written .... Applying balanced scorecard - 282 Words - NerdySeal. 31 Professional Balanced Scorecard Examples & Templates. Balanced Scorecard Essay – Telegraph. How To Make A Balanced Scorecard Template Pdf Template - Riset. Balanced Scorecard of Halifax, Inc Essay Example | Topics and Well .... the balanced scorecard essay. strategy simulation the balanced scorecard harvard. Balanced Scorecard Templates. Essays Balanced Scorecard Bachelor Thesis : — Balanced scorecard .... Balanced essay. Balanced Scorecard essay. 2022-11-05. Balanced Scorecard Approach in Organizations - 1932 Words | Report Example. Figure 1 from Application of the Balanced Scorecard in Higher Education .... balanced scorecard | Pathways International. Walmart Balanced Scorecard | Case Study Example. Balanced Scorecard Example Manufacturing Company. balanced scorecard exle intrafocus | Strategy map, Balance, Example. Online Essay Help | amazonia.fiocruz.br. The Cleveland Clinic's Balanced Scorecards - 5953 Words | Report Example. A Balanced Scorecard. Balanced Scorecard Assignment Report Example | Topics and Well Written ....
Cybernetic/P2P/Gift Economy, Libertarian (Anarchist) Communism, 2nd Tier Thinking (Spiral Dynamics)
It appears from our writings and from our history the first that occurred was debt. There are couples of types of debt and I want to go into this because it has significance for how powerful a concept it is for us.
The first thing is, there was a debt in many religions and many languages. Debt is the same word as sin.
And so, there was a primordial debt, a debt to the universe, a debt to God, a debt to existence.
And in many cultures and many religions, it was expected that you bring sacrifices, whether that was an animal sacrifice, you put time, you prayed, you did something else to try to return your debt to the universe. But ultimately it was understood that the only way you could return the debt to the universe for the resources you were using that made up your body and your existence was through dying.
What's also interesting is because debt as culture evolved and we had civilizations and organization we find that debt and this primordial debt is associated with rulers and governments and they use this same representation saying they were close to God, they were close to and represent society, the community, in order to have contributions of taxes, fees, and so forth.
So, we actually see that debt came first. People loaned things to each other and they didn't worry about getting payback right away, they just wrote it down.
And they said Oh I know you're good for it, next week, next month or whatever. Then we had barter, barter came in because sometimes what you owed was too great. Or because indeed you did want to trade some goods and services. Money came later.
―Lawrence Bishop
We’re going from a closed system to an open system in terms of General Systems Theory. In a closed system, entropy increases; but in an open system, entropy doesn’t necessarily increase. In a closed system, the Malthusian laws apply: you have to struggle for survival – there’s not enough to go around and the predatory types will always get most of the food, shelter and luxuries. In an open system, all of that changes…
An open system is of much more advantage to everybody than a closed system. In a closed system, the best you can do is equalize the misery… On the other hand, an open system creates the possibility of abundance for all…
I want to see everybody rich and in an open system that’s possible…
There would be more diversity. I think there would be cultures created unlike anything we’ve ever had in the primitive conditions of the closed system, the Malthusian crunch on this planet.
―Robert Anton Wilson
The goal of the future is full unemployment, so we can play. That's why we have to destroy the present politico-economic system.
―Arthur C. Clarke
The youth of today are absolutely right in recognizing this nonsense of earning a living.
―Bucky Fuller
Capitalism and socialism are survival economics.
―UPwingers
Ecology & Environment. Kenneth E Boulding.
What can we know and teach about social systems?
Recently I came upon the reassuring news that the year
1910 was a crucial one in human history because this was
the year when the medical profession began to do more
good than harm. I wonder whether the teaching profession has reached this watershed yet.
Dr. Ahmad, Full Text; Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's IdeaDr. Ahmad, Futurist.
Origin Ontology of Future Scenario's Idea, International Conference on Multilateral Cooperation: Emerging Global Scenario, India, 22-24 February 2016. Already cancelled in Scenario 2015 (Improving Scenario Methodology: Theory and Practice), WBS. UK, December 2015, p. 37. http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/subjects/orms/ormsevents/scenario2015/programme/updated_11.12.pdf http://studylib.net/doc/13510220/scenario-2015-improving-scenario-methodology--theory-and-...
Environmental changes coupled with the impact on globalization leading to increasing complexity in many developing strategies, especially on the foresight and futures studies. These trends pose a fundamental question, what is the chalenges of future’s complexity? It seems before understanding the origin of Future Scenario's idea and laws governing the Future Time, we've gone into the application of Scenarios to build better stories about future.
In this paper we deeply investigated following issues in order to demonstrate the effects of the origin of idea's ontology on Future Scenarios;
1. Idea ontology,
2. The origin of creative thinking,
3. Idea nurturing in organizations,
4. Shaping the future time,
5. Scenario planning,
6. Ideas social network (global brain).
This paper is a fundamental research type that makes theory for an applied science. In fact, we seek to bridge an ontology base with an applied knowledge. According to qualitative approach this study because of its data references to valid resources is valid and due to expert's continuous supervisions is reliable.
Conceptual Model that have been emerged from this investigation, shows how we can improve scenario planning ability and what actually should be done to have good scenarios.
The Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdfkaushalkr1407
The Roman Empire, a vast and enduring power, stands as one of history's most remarkable civilizations, leaving an indelible imprint on the world. It emerged from the Roman Republic, transitioning into an imperial powerhouse under the leadership of Augustus Caesar in 27 BCE. This transformation marked the beginning of an era defined by unprecedented territorial expansion, architectural marvels, and profound cultural influence.
The empire's roots lie in the city of Rome, founded, according to legend, by Romulus in 753 BCE. Over centuries, Rome evolved from a small settlement to a formidable republic, characterized by a complex political system with elected officials and checks on power. However, internal strife, class conflicts, and military ambitions paved the way for the end of the Republic. Julius Caesar’s dictatorship and subsequent assassination in 44 BCE created a power vacuum, leading to a civil war. Octavian, later Augustus, emerged victorious, heralding the Roman Empire’s birth.
Under Augustus, the empire experienced the Pax Romana, a 200-year period of relative peace and stability. Augustus reformed the military, established efficient administrative systems, and initiated grand construction projects. The empire's borders expanded, encompassing territories from Britain to Egypt and from Spain to the Euphrates. Roman legions, renowned for their discipline and engineering prowess, secured and maintained these vast territories, building roads, fortifications, and cities that facilitated control and integration.
The Roman Empire’s society was hierarchical, with a rigid class system. At the top were the patricians, wealthy elites who held significant political power. Below them were the plebeians, free citizens with limited political influence, and the vast numbers of slaves who formed the backbone of the economy. The family unit was central, governed by the paterfamilias, the male head who held absolute authority.
Culturally, the Romans were eclectic, absorbing and adapting elements from the civilizations they encountered, particularly the Greeks. Roman art, literature, and philosophy reflected this synthesis, creating a rich cultural tapestry. Latin, the Roman language, became the lingua franca of the Western world, influencing numerous modern languages.
Roman architecture and engineering achievements were monumental. They perfected the arch, vault, and dome, constructing enduring structures like the Colosseum, Pantheon, and aqueducts. These engineering marvels not only showcased Roman ingenuity but also served practical purposes, from public entertainment to water supply.
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptxPavel ( NSTU)
Synthetic fiber production is a fascinating and complex field that blends chemistry, engineering, and environmental science. By understanding these aspects, students can gain a comprehensive view of synthetic fiber production, its impact on society and the environment, and the potential for future innovations. Synthetic fibers play a crucial role in modern society, impacting various aspects of daily life, industry, and the environment. ynthetic fibers are integral to modern life, offering a range of benefits from cost-effectiveness and versatility to innovative applications and performance characteristics. While they pose environmental challenges, ongoing research and development aim to create more sustainable and eco-friendly alternatives. Understanding the importance of synthetic fibers helps in appreciating their role in the economy, industry, and daily life, while also emphasizing the need for sustainable practices and innovation.
This is a presentation by Dada Robert in a Your Skill Boost masterclass organised by the Excellence Foundation for South Sudan (EFSS) on Saturday, the 25th and Sunday, the 26th of May 2024.
He discussed the concept of quality improvement, emphasizing its applicability to various aspects of life, including personal, project, and program improvements. He defined quality as doing the right thing at the right time in the right way to achieve the best possible results and discussed the concept of the "gap" between what we know and what we do, and how this gap represents the areas we need to improve. He explained the scientific approach to quality improvement, which involves systematic performance analysis, testing and learning, and implementing change ideas. He also highlighted the importance of client focus and a team approach to quality improvement.
Ethnobotany and Ethnopharmacology:
Ethnobotany in herbal drug evaluation,
Impact of Ethnobotany in traditional medicine,
New development in herbals,
Bio-prospecting tools for drug discovery,
Role of Ethnopharmacology in drug evaluation,
Reverse Pharmacology.
We all have good and bad thoughts from time to time and situation to situation. We are bombarded daily with spiraling thoughts(both negative and positive) creating all-consuming feel , making us difficult to manage with associated suffering. Good thoughts are like our Mob Signal (Positive thought) amidst noise(negative thought) in the atmosphere. Negative thoughts like noise outweigh positive thoughts. These thoughts often create unwanted confusion, trouble, stress and frustration in our mind as well as chaos in our physical world. Negative thoughts are also known as “distorted thinking”.
Palestine last event orientationfvgnh .pptxRaedMohamed3
An EFL lesson about the current events in Palestine. It is intended to be for intermediate students who wish to increase their listening skills through a short lesson in power point.
The Indian economy is classified into different sectors to simplify the analysis and understanding of economic activities. For Class 10, it's essential to grasp the sectors of the Indian economy, understand their characteristics, and recognize their importance. This guide will provide detailed notes on the Sectors of the Indian Economy Class 10, using specific long-tail keywords to enhance comprehension.
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Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdfThiyagu K
This slides describes the basic concepts of ICT, basics of Email, Emerging Technology and Digital Initiatives in Education. This presentations aligns with the UGC Paper I syllabus.
How to Create Map Views in the Odoo 17 ERPCeline George
The map views are useful for providing a geographical representation of data. They allow users to visualize and analyze the data in a more intuitive manner.
2. New year’s resolutions What new year’s resolution do you have? Why do people formulate new year’s resolution? Why do you think people don’t stick to their new year’s resolution?
3. What does the future mean to you? Future (adjective): Belonging to that part of time that has not yet occurred but that will occur. Future (noun): The period of time following the present moment and continuing indefinitely The situation or condition of someone or something in the future One of a plurality of possible future conditions or situations. These are sometimes defined as alternative futures or just futures Futuring (verb): the act, art or science of identifying and evaluating possible future events.
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5. Fragmented illusion “From a very early age, we are taught to break apart problems, to fragment the world. This apparently makes complex tasks and subjects more manageable, but we pay a hidden, enormous price. We can no longer see the consequences of our actions; we lose our intrinsic sense of connection to a larger whole. When we then try to “see the big picture” we try to reassemble the fragments in our minds, to list and organize all the pieces. But, as physicist David Bohm says, the task is futile –similar to trying to reassemble the fragments of a broken mirror to see a true reflection. Thus, after a while we give up trying to see the whole altogether.” (Peter Senge, 1990)
6. Everything is connected to each other When we give up the illusion that the world is created of separated, unrelated forces, then we can start creating sustainable futures A pond that ripples, when you throw a stone in it…
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8. A paradigm that can help to think and imagine the multiple connections between the individual parts: Systems Thinking A system may be defined as any group of things that are connected together so that they act in some ways as a whole: Examples of systems: The universe The human body The ecosystem The social sector The economy An organization
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10. Charachteristics The system concept helps us think in very broad terms about how events occur It adds structure It focuses our attention to on relationships rather than on things: “It is the relationship among things themselves, more than the things themselves that shape events”
13. Imagining systems:Interrelatedness and Change: plausibility! Let’s experiment with systems thinking by using the metaphor of the Guilloche pattern generator* *Guilloché is a decorative engraving technique in which a very precise intricate pattern repetitive or design is mechanically engraved into an underlying material with fine detail. Specifically, it involves a technique of engine turning ,called guilloché in French after the French engineer “Guillot”, who invented a machine “that could scratch fine patterns and designs on metallic surfaces”. http://www.subblue.com/projects/guilloche
14. 7 levels of Living systems (Miller, 1979) Living systems are divided between: biological systems and social systems 7 levels of living systems: The cell (the amoebae, a muscle cell, a cancer cell) The organ (heart, liver, brains) The organism (a man, plant, dog) The group (family, gaggle of cheese) The organization (school, factory, government) The society (Aruba, US, Australia) The supranational system (NATO, EU)
15. Infinitive future potentialities/possibilities Difference between a historian and a futurist The historian focuses on the actualities of the past; The futurist must deal with the infinitely more numerous potentialities of the future Since potential events have never had any actuality, we can only imagine them, and many lie beyond the reach of our wildest imagining. However we get a few hints of how incredible must be those things that we cannot imagine
16. Chance and Chaos: Butterfly effect A metaphor to illustrate sensitivity to initial conditions. The metaphor was popularized by MIT’s Edward Lorenz with his 1979 paper: Predictability: does a flap of a butterfly’s wind in Brazil sett off a tornado in Texas?
17. Explorer’s Attitude: setting out on the expedition Prepare for what you will face in the future Anticipate future needs Use poor information when necessary Expect the unexpected Think long term as well as short term Dream productively Learn from your predecessors
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19. Futuring methods The goal of futuring is not to predict the future but to improve it. We want to anticipate possible or likely future conditions so that we can prepare for them. We want to focus in particular on opportunities and risks that we should be ready for. For this we have a number of useful methods: ordinary procedure that most of us use occasionally in ordinary life, but then more refined
21. Scanning the world around Us Scanning: The process of identifying significant changes in the external environment –that is, in the world beyond our immediate area of operations- It can be thought of as the effort to identify and understand those phenomena or aspects of the world that are most relevant to the people or groups who need this information for important decisions. Is an ongoing process Scanning is based on systematic survey of current newspapers, magazines, research findings, websites and other media for indication of changes likely to have future importance
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23. We are what we measure: choosing the right indicators is crucial
24. Scanning focuses on trends rather than events A trend: changes that occur through time Events: changes that occur very quickly and generally are less significant for understanding the future
25. Six broad categories of trends:DEGEST Demography Economy Government Environment (the natural environment) Society/Culture Technology Or STEEP categories: Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, Political
26. Procedure (simplified) With for e.g. the DEGEST system (or the STEEP) we can think sequentially about demographic trends then economic, then governmental etc… We then can combine a number of trends into a single major trend that includes them all After that we move to the more complex part of making connections across the categories We look at the relationships among the trends: causes and consequences
28. e.g. Trend analysis Trend: A rise in life expectancy Causes: (might be caused by) rising living standards, better medical treatments, healthier environments Impact: A longer portion of people’s life will be spent in retirement Increasing demand in goods and services for the eldery and maybe bigger financial strain on families to care for aging parents/grandparents Golden question: What kind of environment should be designed in order to accommodate these changes?
47. Scenario’s Conjectures about what might happen in the future A simple way to develop a scenario is to project a current trend into the future, but this gives us only one scenario We need to develop others because not all trends may proceed as we anticipated Our imagination is important in developing alternative scenario’s Scenarios are created by means of narratives: “we are defined by the stories we tell each other and ourselves” (Venessa Miemes, 2010)
48. It is advisable to create a minimum of 3 scenarios when considering future events or situations by identifying futures that are:possible, probable, and preferable five sample scenarios from Cornish’s (2004) book: A Surprise-Free Scenario: Things will continue much as they are now. They won’t become substantially better or worse. An Optimistic Scenario: Things will go considerably better than in the recent past. A Pessimistic Scenario: Something will go considerably worse than in the past. A Disaster Scenario: Things will go terribly wrong, and our situation will be far worse than anything we have previously experienced. A Transformation Scenario: Something spectacularly marvelous happens – something we never dared to expect.
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50. Forecasting and Backcasting planning for the future forecasting backcasting A statement (scenario composed of trends) that something will happen in the future. Forecast implies less certainty about the events occurrence than prediction, but the terms are often used interchangeable A method for forecasting or planning in which an event is posted as already having occurred in the future. The question then becomes: How did this event come to be? Backcasting offers a way to envision a desirable future and then determine what must happen in order for that goal to be reached
51. Back to an other kind of butterfly metaphor: metamorphosis We create our future with the conscious actions in the now
52. “A bright green future begins when each of us, today, decides to live as if that future were already here.” - Alex Steffen(World Changing)
53. We must co- create our future: change agents! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noPcVKf24rk&feature=player_embedded
55. Let’s take a look at the scenario’s used at the Nos Aruba 2025 planning process Please take a look at the scenario statements and blueprint document I’ve just handed in the class