This document discusses the need for higher education leaders to adopt a futures-oriented perspective to help transcend the "flatlands" of traditional futures thinking. It argues that traditional approaches have focused too much on prediction, technology, and Western models of progress. A futures studies perspective can help open up more viable, visible, and valuable futures by considering alternative futures through concepts like foresight literacy and strategic thinking. It presents a leadership model called the "Triple-V" approach that integrates foresight, strategic thinking, and strategy formulation to help facilitate innovation and shape sustainable learning futures.
Surviving Economic Crises through EducationDavid R Cole
This document contains a collection of essays that discuss how education can help societies survive economic crises. The essays address topics such as open science and knowledge sharing to restore public education during budget cuts. They also discuss how education can build resilience against hostile policies, help communities engage with democratic socialism, and develop new narratives in times of crisis. Overall, the document argues that education can play an important role in helping societies withstand economic hardship and envision new possibilities through struggle and hope.
Indigenous Consciousness Presentation was presented at the First International Forum in Mountain Province was hosted by the Mountain Province State Polytechnic College and was co-hosted by Bali-based non-government organization Yayasan Global Banjar International- Wow Bali Initiative on April 4-7.
This year the theme, “Innovations for Indigenous Peoples’ Empowerment and Social Transformation!”
Conceptual framing for educational research through Deleuze and GuattariDavid R Cole
This presentation will address the issue of conceptual framing for educational research through the philosophy of Deleuze & Guattari. The picture of what this means is complicated by the fact that in their combined texts, Deleuze and Guattari present different notions of conceptual framing. In their final joint text, What is Philosophy? conceptual framing appears in the context of concept creation, and helps with the analysis of western philosophy through concepts such as ‘geophilosophy’. In their joint texts on Capitalism and Schizophrenia, concepts are aligned with pre-personal and individualising flows that pass through any context. This presentation will make sense of the disparate deployment of concepts in the work of Deleuze & Guattari to aid clear conceptual work in the growing international field of educational research inspired by their philosophy.
The Creation Myth - Creating with Technology is Not Enough - t2 conference sp...hbeezley
Bloom’s Taxonomy is frequently used as a guide for evaluating the level of thinking that a student achieves when completing a given learning task. Frequently technology projects that are are completed using high-tech tools are judged to require the highest level of Bloom’s Revised Taxonomy, CREATION, and thus are awarded the stamp of approval that the project possesses a high degree of educational value. But this judgement is misleading. While a student making a movie may be thinking at the CREATE level as they consider what camera angles would be most effective for creating the right mood or what choices will help them achieve the look and feel for their chosen genre of film-making, they may be only considering the content at the remembering and understanding level. Thus, the highly polished and effective movie is evidence that a student is adept at communication using this modality, but the movie itself does not necessarily demonstrate that the subject-matter content was analyzed, synthesized, evaluated, or more importantly that something was created, with regard to content. Students may be simply reproducing information from other sources. If this is the case, students have not achieved the CREATE level, with regard to the subject matter. This presentation will help educators decipher the difference between project-based assignments that require students to create with the content and those that only require students to create new products. We will also present several sure-fire strategies for how to design projects where students CREATE with content.
The document discusses how architecture can benefit from understanding how children learn and play. It argues that children are naturally creative and innovative before these qualities are discouraged through social conditioning. Children think in operational models and see the world as something to explore rather than something to be programmed. The document advocates designing architecture and software with a playful, exploratory mindset inspired by how children learn, rather than through strict engineering approaches. This would make architecture more enjoyable, creative, and suited to how humans naturally think.
Crazy Futures aka Rx for Leadership Scotomas (why plausibility is maladaptive)Wendy Schultz
Short slidedeck on overcoming mental boundaries and expanding conceptual horizons in considering what possible futures may emerge, as a means to avoiding decision blindspots and black elephants / black swans.
Surviving Economic Crises through EducationDavid R Cole
This document contains a collection of essays that discuss how education can help societies survive economic crises. The essays address topics such as open science and knowledge sharing to restore public education during budget cuts. They also discuss how education can build resilience against hostile policies, help communities engage with democratic socialism, and develop new narratives in times of crisis. Overall, the document argues that education can play an important role in helping societies withstand economic hardship and envision new possibilities through struggle and hope.
Indigenous Consciousness Presentation was presented at the First International Forum in Mountain Province was hosted by the Mountain Province State Polytechnic College and was co-hosted by Bali-based non-government organization Yayasan Global Banjar International- Wow Bali Initiative on April 4-7.
This year the theme, “Innovations for Indigenous Peoples’ Empowerment and Social Transformation!”
Conceptual framing for educational research through Deleuze and GuattariDavid R Cole
This presentation will address the issue of conceptual framing for educational research through the philosophy of Deleuze & Guattari. The picture of what this means is complicated by the fact that in their combined texts, Deleuze and Guattari present different notions of conceptual framing. In their final joint text, What is Philosophy? conceptual framing appears in the context of concept creation, and helps with the analysis of western philosophy through concepts such as ‘geophilosophy’. In their joint texts on Capitalism and Schizophrenia, concepts are aligned with pre-personal and individualising flows that pass through any context. This presentation will make sense of the disparate deployment of concepts in the work of Deleuze & Guattari to aid clear conceptual work in the growing international field of educational research inspired by their philosophy.
The Creation Myth - Creating with Technology is Not Enough - t2 conference sp...hbeezley
Bloom’s Taxonomy is frequently used as a guide for evaluating the level of thinking that a student achieves when completing a given learning task. Frequently technology projects that are are completed using high-tech tools are judged to require the highest level of Bloom’s Revised Taxonomy, CREATION, and thus are awarded the stamp of approval that the project possesses a high degree of educational value. But this judgement is misleading. While a student making a movie may be thinking at the CREATE level as they consider what camera angles would be most effective for creating the right mood or what choices will help them achieve the look and feel for their chosen genre of film-making, they may be only considering the content at the remembering and understanding level. Thus, the highly polished and effective movie is evidence that a student is adept at communication using this modality, but the movie itself does not necessarily demonstrate that the subject-matter content was analyzed, synthesized, evaluated, or more importantly that something was created, with regard to content. Students may be simply reproducing information from other sources. If this is the case, students have not achieved the CREATE level, with regard to the subject matter. This presentation will help educators decipher the difference between project-based assignments that require students to create with the content and those that only require students to create new products. We will also present several sure-fire strategies for how to design projects where students CREATE with content.
The document discusses how architecture can benefit from understanding how children learn and play. It argues that children are naturally creative and innovative before these qualities are discouraged through social conditioning. Children think in operational models and see the world as something to explore rather than something to be programmed. The document advocates designing architecture and software with a playful, exploratory mindset inspired by how children learn, rather than through strict engineering approaches. This would make architecture more enjoyable, creative, and suited to how humans naturally think.
Crazy Futures aka Rx for Leadership Scotomas (why plausibility is maladaptive)Wendy Schultz
Short slidedeck on overcoming mental boundaries and expanding conceptual horizons in considering what possible futures may emerge, as a means to avoiding decision blindspots and black elephants / black swans.
This document provides a list of apps that can be used on iPads for educational purposes. It describes over 30 apps that teach early literacy skills like letters, sounds, spelling, reading, and writing. The apps cover a range of topics including phonics, sight words, storytelling, note-taking, and creative tools. Many apps are free or have lite versions available. The full list of apps provides brief descriptions of the educational activities and skills supported by each app.
This document describes a program that can produce a portrait based on user-submitted information. It asks a series of questions about physical attributes like hair color, eye color, nose shape, and age to generate a realistic portrait. The program processes this information and completes the portrait, providing a link for the user to see the result. It notes the portrait may not be 100% accurate but can be realistic if answers are precise.
This document provides an overview of Synverse, an organization that provides staff augmentation services. It discusses Synverse's values of exceeding customer expectations, leadership, integrity, and excellence. Synverse aims to deliver the best talent through innovative recruitment methods and stringent screening processes. It offers permanent, contract, and sub-contract resourcing across various domains like IT, technology, and professional services. Synverse has a global presence and works with many clients across industries like insurance, pharmaceuticals, and banking.
Cavite is named the Historical Capital of the Philippines as it was the cradle of the Philippine Revolution and birthplace of Philippine Independence. It played a key role in the revolution against Spain led by Emilio Aguinaldo and was where the Philippine independence was proclaimed. Cavite has many historical sites that commemorate important events and figures in Philippine history. It also has natural attractions, beaches, hotels and is a center for tourism.
1) The document discusses a study conducted by USQ and the Regional Development Australia on the engagement of universities and their role in regional development.
2) The study found tensions in the Darling Downs and South West regions around leadership, planning, skills, education, and innovation due to rapid economic and social changes.
3) The study recommends developing a coherent regional leadership strategy, building human capital through education, and creating a shared narrative to guide the regions' future development in a collaborative way.
O documento discute o gênero literário conto. Explica que um conto é uma narrativa curta de fatos imaginários ou reais. O documento está dividido em seções como introdução, tarefa, processo, recurso e conclusão para analisar melhor os contos.
In 2014 I was invited to San Pablo Madrid to deliver this guest lecture on storytelling. The audience consisted of Advertising and Marketing students, and fellow lecturers form all over the world.
Dokumen tersebut memberikan penjelasan mengenai kata nama am. Kata nama am digunakan untuk menyatakan nama orang, binatang, tempat, dan benda secara umum. Contoh kata nama am untuk orang adalah doktor, guru, dan jururawat. Untuk binatang adalah ayam, kucing, dan ikan. Benda seperti kereta, meja, dan buku. Tempat pula seperti sekolah, hospital, dan pasar.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help alleviate symptoms of mental illness and boost overall mental well-being.
The document is a slideshow that features nighttime photographs of various cities and landscapes from around the world. By clicking, the viewer can add color to the black and white photos or advance to the next slide. The slideshow takes the viewer to places like Frankfurt, Bremerhaven, Hamburg, Sydney, Berlin, Budapest, Cologne, London, Prague, Dresden, Salzburg, Las Vegas, Venice, Mount Saint-Michel, Paris, Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, the Alps, Moscow, and features final slides of the Tower Bridge and signals the end.
The poem describes a snowy landscape where everything is covered in a blanket of white snow, from the trees and fields to houses and roads. The speaker notes how the snow muffles all sounds and creates a scene of pristine beauty and silence across the winter landscape.
This slideshow presentation features nighttime photographs of various cities around the world including Frankfurt, Bremerhaven, Hamburg, Sydney, Berlin, Budapest, Cologne, London, Prague, Dresden, Salzburg, Venice, Las Vegas, Mount Saint-Michel, Paris, Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, the Alps, Moscow, and an image of the Tower Bridge. The presentation instructs the viewer to click to add color and advance through the slides.
The document appears to be a collection of photos taken by Gangler in various locations around the world including Jerusalem, the Gulf of Biscay region of Spain, and Victoria Falls located along the Zambia-Zimbabwe border in Africa. The photos are not described but are simply listed along with their locations.
I began an exploration of futures thinking and futures studies in 2005, and began a related, if undefined, study of learning as a form of cultural expression in 2006. This presentation was adapted and updated based on an early mash-up of these interests.
This document provides a list of apps that can be used on iPads for educational purposes. It describes over 30 apps that teach early literacy skills like letters, sounds, spelling, reading, and writing. The apps cover a range of topics including phonics, sight words, storytelling, note-taking, and creative tools. Many apps are free or have lite versions available. The full list of apps provides brief descriptions of the educational activities and skills supported by each app.
This document describes a program that can produce a portrait based on user-submitted information. It asks a series of questions about physical attributes like hair color, eye color, nose shape, and age to generate a realistic portrait. The program processes this information and completes the portrait, providing a link for the user to see the result. It notes the portrait may not be 100% accurate but can be realistic if answers are precise.
This document provides an overview of Synverse, an organization that provides staff augmentation services. It discusses Synverse's values of exceeding customer expectations, leadership, integrity, and excellence. Synverse aims to deliver the best talent through innovative recruitment methods and stringent screening processes. It offers permanent, contract, and sub-contract resourcing across various domains like IT, technology, and professional services. Synverse has a global presence and works with many clients across industries like insurance, pharmaceuticals, and banking.
Cavite is named the Historical Capital of the Philippines as it was the cradle of the Philippine Revolution and birthplace of Philippine Independence. It played a key role in the revolution against Spain led by Emilio Aguinaldo and was where the Philippine independence was proclaimed. Cavite has many historical sites that commemorate important events and figures in Philippine history. It also has natural attractions, beaches, hotels and is a center for tourism.
1) The document discusses a study conducted by USQ and the Regional Development Australia on the engagement of universities and their role in regional development.
2) The study found tensions in the Darling Downs and South West regions around leadership, planning, skills, education, and innovation due to rapid economic and social changes.
3) The study recommends developing a coherent regional leadership strategy, building human capital through education, and creating a shared narrative to guide the regions' future development in a collaborative way.
O documento discute o gênero literário conto. Explica que um conto é uma narrativa curta de fatos imaginários ou reais. O documento está dividido em seções como introdução, tarefa, processo, recurso e conclusão para analisar melhor os contos.
In 2014 I was invited to San Pablo Madrid to deliver this guest lecture on storytelling. The audience consisted of Advertising and Marketing students, and fellow lecturers form all over the world.
Dokumen tersebut memberikan penjelasan mengenai kata nama am. Kata nama am digunakan untuk menyatakan nama orang, binatang, tempat, dan benda secara umum. Contoh kata nama am untuk orang adalah doktor, guru, dan jururawat. Untuk binatang adalah ayam, kucing, dan ikan. Benda seperti kereta, meja, dan buku. Tempat pula seperti sekolah, hospital, dan pasar.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for mental health. Regular physical activity can help reduce anxiety and depression and improve mood and cognitive functioning. Exercise causes chemical changes in the brain that may help alleviate symptoms of mental illness and boost overall mental well-being.
The document is a slideshow that features nighttime photographs of various cities and landscapes from around the world. By clicking, the viewer can add color to the black and white photos or advance to the next slide. The slideshow takes the viewer to places like Frankfurt, Bremerhaven, Hamburg, Sydney, Berlin, Budapest, Cologne, London, Prague, Dresden, Salzburg, Las Vegas, Venice, Mount Saint-Michel, Paris, Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, the Alps, Moscow, and features final slides of the Tower Bridge and signals the end.
The poem describes a snowy landscape where everything is covered in a blanket of white snow, from the trees and fields to houses and roads. The speaker notes how the snow muffles all sounds and creates a scene of pristine beauty and silence across the winter landscape.
This slideshow presentation features nighttime photographs of various cities around the world including Frankfurt, Bremerhaven, Hamburg, Sydney, Berlin, Budapest, Cologne, London, Prague, Dresden, Salzburg, Venice, Las Vegas, Mount Saint-Michel, Paris, Tokyo, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Kuala Lumpur, the Alps, Moscow, and an image of the Tower Bridge. The presentation instructs the viewer to click to add color and advance through the slides.
The document appears to be a collection of photos taken by Gangler in various locations around the world including Jerusalem, the Gulf of Biscay region of Spain, and Victoria Falls located along the Zambia-Zimbabwe border in Africa. The photos are not described but are simply listed along with their locations.
I began an exploration of futures thinking and futures studies in 2005, and began a related, if undefined, study of learning as a form of cultural expression in 2006. This presentation was adapted and updated based on an early mash-up of these interests.
Riel Miller “Why the Discipline of Anticipation is a Necessary Condition for ...rielmiller
Riel Miller, Keynote speech at the 1st International Conference on Anticipation, University of Trento, Italy, November 5, 2015 https://webmagazine.unitn.it/evento/sociologia/3000/first-international-conference-on-anticipation
1) The document discusses the changing nature of skills needed for jobs and the economy, citing sources that argue education needs to focus more on developing flexible, adaptive skills rather than rigid curriculum content.
2) It also discusses the "learning fetish" where learning is seen as valuable in itself without consideration for what is being learned, and the need to avoid losing sight of broader purposes of education like building understanding.
3) While skills are important, there is a risk of "throwing the baby out with the bath water" if focus shifts too much from curriculum and subject knowledge, so a balanced approach is needed that promotes both knowledge and skills.
This document discusses the future and how digital technologies are driving shifts in many industries and aspects of society. Some key points:
- Emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, robotics, and biotechnology will continue to disrupt many industries and potentially impact employment levels.
- Digital technologies have already transformed how human information is recorded and industries like music, news, and banking.
- Predicting the future is difficult, as change is deep and non-linear. Different narratives around technological progress, financial values, and ecological perspectives shape expectations.
- The future is not predetermined, but is influenced by the narratives we adopt and the decisions we make based on those narratives in the present. Liberal arts skills like creativity, empathy
This document summarizes Jonathon Richter's presentation at the Emerging Learning Design Conference on emerging strategic innovations in educational leadership. Richter discussed how the world is becoming increasingly fast-paced, interconnected, and complex. He outlined different dimensions of future time perspective and highlighted emerging technologies that could impact education, such as electronic books, augmented reality, and learning analytics. Richter argued that educational leaders need to help students develop a strong future time perspective in order to thrive in this changing environment.
The document discusses different approaches to envisioning the future, including scenarios, visions, and an "open source" approach. It suggests that participants in a conference clarify their visions of preferred futures by comparing and choosing between contrasting possible futures in different areas. Participants are then asked to envision and share in 3 minutes 3 short, positive changes they want to see by 2025, finding at least one common change with another person.
This document discusses the use of scenarios and foresight in policymaking. It provides the following information:
1) Scenarios are structured stories that describe possible different futures in order to reframe the present, rather than make predictions. They help create a shared understanding of the future and identify emerging issues.
2) In 1979 and 1990, the OECD developed global scenarios on issues like energy and development that influenced policy and international collaboration.
3) Current foresight work includes scenarios on topics like the future of livelihoods and the effects of automation and drought.
4) Foresight, using tools like scenarios, is important for policymaking to help leadership think reflectively about the future and get
The document discusses 16 trends that will impact the future and have implications for education. Some of the key trends discussed include an aging global population, the need to develop student creativity and encourage thinking outside the box, and the importance of preparing students with skills like problem solving and thinking across disciplines rather than just learning isolated facts. Effective school leaders are also described as clarifiers, teachers, and nurturers who enjoy learning and are not threatened by change.
SSAT Conference Session
https://www.ssatrust.org.uk/sites/NationalConference2010/abouttheevent/Pages/fridaykeynotevideos.aspx for a video of David Lambert in action...
Urban Hub 8 : What We Can Do Cultivating Change - Thriveable CitiesPaul van Schaık
This document provides an introduction to an 8-part series on thriveable cities using an integral framework. It discusses key concepts from integral theory like multiple perspectives, levels of consciousness, and subjective and objective approaches. It presents an integral view of mapping human possibilities and factors to consider. It also discusses integral cartography and frameworks that are more comprehensive and inclusive. The document provides context on using the materials and encourages collaborative action over just discussion.
This document discusses concepts of space and place. It defines space as broader and more abstract than place, describing space as possibility and openness while place represents pause and location. Place only emerges as space becomes familiar and valued. The ideas of space and place require each other for definition. Sensing and inhabiting places is how we come to understand them. Communities and identities are also discussed in relation to places and how we construct ourselves and others in relation to places. The document examines challenges involved in creating change within communities.
This document discusses the need to broaden thinking about possible futures beyond current conceptions. It argues that imagining utopian futures, though often seen as unrealistic, is important for inspiring transformative change towards more sustainable and desirable societies. The document outlines some common counterarguments against utopian thinking but responds that utopias are not meant as rigid blueprints but rather as methods for renewing visions and expanding discussions about alternative futures. It concludes by advocating an approach of democratizing futures discourse, cultivating new narratives, and providing experiential ways of exploring preferable visions to catalyze hope and societal change.
Pattern Languages — An Approach to Holistic Knowledge RepresentationDouglas Schuler
Pattern Languages, developed by Christopher Alexander and his colleagues, are holistic manifestos for a given domain. This presentation provides an introduction to patterns and pattern languages and some hints for developing them.
This document discusses future forecasting and its importance for project management. It defines future forecasting as not predicting the future, but rather systematically collecting information to prepare for optional futures. It discusses various forecasting methods like identifying weak signals, trends, and megatrends. Megatrends in particular shape the big picture of the future over 10-15 years. Scenarios are described as tools to help strategic decision making by outlining possible futures. The document emphasizes imagination and flexible thinking to deal with an uncertain future.
The document proposes an alternative framework for K-8 social science education that prepares students for a global society. It suggests shifting from a traditional chronological, regionally-focused framework to one that takes a holistic, "outside-in" perspective focused on universal principles like the oneness of humanity. Sample curriculum goals include recognizing the spiritual nature of humanity in K-1 and understanding concepts like interdependence and a borderless world in later grades. Assessment would emphasize higher-order thinking and personal transformation over specific content knowledge.
A playful stroll thru heuristic fields of thought & feeling, focused upon opportunities for Foreign Language Learning Pedagogy to be transformed by New Media (Lev Manovich), NeuroCinematics, WeChat/WhatsApp, English Corners, right-brained learning/acquisition. Wikinomics and the practices of mass collaboration can be used by language learners for income generation--by doing audio editing of their target language to expandtheir level of i+1 (Krashen's concept of expanding one's level of comprehension of the target language input),by using repetition of audio segments (speeches/film dialogues/songs/etc.), silence, background music, slowing the speed of speech (but not the frequency). Such income-generating mass collaboration projects can benefit economically-challenged individuals/schools/NGOs/etc.
Educational intelligence in XXI century: Talents @ TechnologyiECARUS
Global trends for XXI century East –West cultural hemispheres The world we live in … Everyone has an Ikigai ( 生き甲斐 ) Right – Left Brain The modern world is destroying your brain Artificial Intelligence vs. Human Intelligence Results from the educational system Future jobs require more brain power then ever before i-ECARUS Educational Ecosystem Solution
Creativity and innovation can be learned through participation in authentic settings that provide constraints and opportunities for mastery. Education needs to bring design-mode thinking into the core curriculum by empowering learners as knowledge workers and changing contexts to generate new perspectives. Micro-case studies show how creativity emerges through a combination of mastery, openness to new ideas, and organizational structures that support double competencies.
Similar to Transcending learning futures flatlands fin 12apr (20)
1. Transcending the learning futures flatland: a
futures-orientated perspective for higher
education leaders.
Luke van der Laan
University of Southern Queensland
Australian Centre for Sustainable Business and Development
2. Follow the Sun – learning futures
• ‘Spaceship Earth’ – humanity hurtling through space
• ‘Time machine Earth’ – inexorable movement through time
(Bell, 2003)
An inspirational challenge to leaders – not only are the people
mapping learning futures,
space travellers;
they are also time travellers.
BUT only have a one way ticket toward the future.
3. Structure
• Flatlands – a critical view
• Sustainability: the challenge and the imperative
• Futures Studies: an alternative perspective
• Foresight, futures thinking and strategic thinking.
• Evidence of how to smother innovation.
• Leadership model for realising creative emergence
4. Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.
Lord Kelvin, British mathematician, physicist, and president of
the British Royal Society, spoken in 1895.
5. Flatlands – A Critical Approach to Futures
• Early Futures / Futurology: Prediction, forecasting and control.
• Led to a reductionist framework for futures work – the ‘flatlands’
of futures work (Wilber, 1995)
• Implication: Insufficiently understood and problematised change.
• Technology-LED paradigms remain dominant.
• Consequence – constrained futures / futures paradigms.
6. Flatlands: the background
• Instrumental rationality discovered by Western industrial civilisation
led to raw technical power – the power of emerging technologies.
• Notions of growth, optimism and vitality and economic dominance.
• Western-style progress and design has overwhelmed contemporary
developmental models: ‘the way things are’, unquestionable,
hegemonic (Slaughter, 1998)
• ‘Pop Culture’ and ‘Pop Futures’- reinforce the paradigm Flatlands.
7. Flatlands: now
• Metamorphosed power – shift from ‘Western’ to ‘globalised’
designs embedded in dominant paradigms (Still predominantly
controlled by traditionally Western culture)
• Underpinned by western-style culture, society and economic
models.
• Technological civilisation carrying with it success & dynamic
opportunity BUT also creating significant polarities and
broadening gaps in distribution and access.
• Global Forecasts largely fail to list major changes in the higher
education sector in the top 10!
8. That idea is so damned nonsensical and impossible that I'm
willing to stand on the bridge of a battleship while that nitwit
tries to hit it from the air.
Newton Baker, U.S. secretary of war in 1921, reacting to the claim of
Billy Mitchell (later Brigadier General Mitchell) that airplanes could
sink battleships by dropping bombs on them.
9. Flatlands: Learning Futures
• Terminology acknowledges the domain and work in Alternative
Futures
• Caveat
• Possible examples:
– ‘Generation Theory’ based research
– ‘Past Success’ breeding failure
– ‘The’ future of education
– ‘Dominant Approaches’ to education
– ‘Language’ dominance
– ‘Technology led’ as opposed to technology enabled
– ‘Universal Connectedness’ not really connected
10. Sustainable Higher Education
“Sustainability and sustainable development are not
problems or projects amenable to reductionist thinking
leading to a solution or an end point, indeed no-one
knows what the conditions are for sustainability or
sustainable development” (Loveridge, 2009)
11. Sustainability
• Ability of systems and organizations to continue indefinitely while
consistently exercising provident care (Senge et al, 2006)
• Common counter-intuitive responses to the future
– Reductionist thinking to make sense of complexity?
– Short-termism to manage complexity?
“you will realise that you cannot reduce your risk by simply letting the long
term take care of itself … for in complex systems, even doing nothing
could have escalating consequences” (Stacey 1992, p. 18)
Leadership imperative to transcend dominant paradigms and open
up the emergence of innovation.
12. Obstacles
“Given a choice between changing and proving that it is not necessary,
most people get busy on the proof.” John Galbraith
• Future phobias, paradigm paralysis, info mania, reverse paranoia
(Gelatt, 1993)
• Sense-making is done in terms of families, tribes, religions and
nation states – organisations reflect the same self-interested focus /
myopia.
• Strategies for sustainability will fail if myopic views are not
transcended.
• Connection between human consciousness and physical world is
not esoteric – it is an imperative and leads to living organisations.
Senge et al., 2006, Learning for Sustainability
13. A severe depression like that of 1920-21 is outside the range
of probability.
Harvard Economic Society, Weekly Letter, November 16, 1929.
Why have so few economists foreseen the credit crunch?
Her Majesty the Queen’ question to the London School of
Economics, 2009
In recent years economics has turned virtually into a branch of
applied mathematics, and has become detached from real-
world institutions and events … What has become scarce is
a professional wisdom informed by a rich knowledge of
psychology, institutional structures and historic
precedence
Prof. G Hodgson et al. in a formal response to the Queen’s
question, 22 July 2009
14. ‘The Future’
"The future doesn't exist, never did, and never will. By definition,
the future hasn’t happened. And when it does happen it
becomes the present, and then quickly becomes the past"
(Gelatt, 1993)
• Removed from empirical observation and from present choices?
• Too random and complex to be understood (bounded
rationality)?
• An open epistemological space / domain of uncertainty?
A ‘blank canvas’ for expressing viable images of the future shaped
and influenced by decisions and actions in the present.
15. Is man at present a self-willed being who creates his own futures; or is
he a time-bound creature clinging desperately to today for fear of
what tomorrow may bring?
There is no volition without an object, and the object of a volition is that
a fiction of the mind becomes a fact. de Jouvenal, 1967
Humans have the innate creative ability for imagining the future. Polak,
1961
MOVE FROM PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE TO SHAPING HOW
THE FUTURE MAY EVOLVE
16. Futures Studies?
“The methods of futures studies include tools for describing
possible, probable and desirable variations of the present and
drafting possible images of the future. By looking at the variety
of different possibilities, we can come closer to shaping the
future – rather than predicting it. Future studies offer valuable
tools to understand and shape the development of our
societies.” 13th International Conference, 2011, Finland Futures
Academy University of Turku
17. Understanding the Future
• Plurality of discourses / epistemology
• Foundational Futures Concepts
– Used Future
– Disowned Future
– Alternative Futures
– Alignment
– Models of Social Change
– Uses of the Future
18. Foundational Futures concepts
Foundational Concept Question
Used Future Have you purchased a used future? Is your
image of the future yours?
Disowned Future Have what we excelled at become our
downfall? Have we pushed the future away?
Alternative Futures The same future means making the same
mistakes – Future Shock. Have we explored
alternative viable futures? Have we prepared
for uncertainty?
Alignment Have we aligned our futures landscape? Is our
inner alignment in-step? BAU – Strategy – Big
Picture - Vision
Your Model of Social Change Do we believe the future is positive / bleak,
open-ended or out of our control? Do our
actions today create the future? Have we
explored the impact of our future?
Use of the Future How and to what extent do we use our insight
and foresight? What levels of the future are we
engaged in changing?
Inayatullah, 2008
19. Levels of Using the Future
What level of ‘using the future’ do you desire?
• Training? Helping to create new skills?
• More effective strategy? Facilitating innovation?
• Creating capacity? Decolonising, deconstructing the anticipated
future?
• Emergence? Paradigm shifts? New Futures?
• Meme change? Changing the ideas that govern institutions,
society? (Dawkins, 1989)
• Microvita change? Changing the fields of reality? (Sarker, 1991)
“Futures Thinking ultimately can go so far as mapping and
changing memes and fields of reality” (Inayatullah, 2008)
20. Futures / Futures Studies / Futures Research /
Prospective
A PRACTISE TO TRANSCEND THE DOMINANT, LITANY
BASED PERSPECTIVES OF
THE FUTURE
BY DISCOVERING, PROPOSING, EXAMINING AND
EVALUATING POSSIBLE, PROBABLE AND
PREFERABLE FUTURES
21. Why a futures studies perspective?
• Need for broader preferred futures:
– Need for transdisciplinary systematic view of the future.
– Need for viable integrated views of the future (Integral Futures)
– Need for a causally layered views of meaning (Causal Layered
Analysis)
– Need for multiple views of the future (Alternative Futures)
– Need for a ‘memory of the future’ (Foresight: individual and
methodological)
– Need for epistemologically viable views of the future (Futures
Literacy)
22. So what?
• Post-normal times / post-normal capabilities.
• Futures management for a futures-orientated time.
• Competitive advantage or differentiation?
• Stimulating creative emergence / innovation / strategic thinking.
23. I think there is a world market for about five computers.
Thomas J. Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943.
24. How forward?
A pragmatic hybridisation of disciplines to achieve the Triple-V approach
(van der Laan, 2011)
LOGIC:
1) Open up creative / imaginative VIABLE possible futures (foresight
capability and futures thinking)
2) Enhance Strategic Thinking to capture and make VISIBLE a preferred
future
3) Formulate VALUABLE innovative strategies – and shape future
NEED:
Leaders that can activate the process and have;
• Future Orientated Thinking
• Individual Foresight
• Strategic Thinking capability
IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE;
• Social Foresight - developing foresight capacity in a critical mass of
members of organisations, systems, societies.
25. Foresight / Strategic Thinking
• Role of foresight (make VIABLE) and strategic thinking (make
VISIBLE) recognised as imperative (to making VALUABLE).
• Investigation of relationship between individual foresight,
strategic thinking and strategy formulation.
• Structural Equation Modelling (SEM)
• 101 CEOs (34%), 110 Senior Managers (37%) of large Aus and
South African organisations
• 62.5% Post-Graduate level qualification
26. Foresight / Strategic Thinking
Findings:
• Foresight and Strategic Thinking are a)distinct and b) positively
associated cognitive capabilities.
• K-12 and undergraduate education positively moderates the
relationship between foresight cognitions and analytical cognitive
capacity within the context of formulating strategy.
• Exposure to futures concepts / methods positively moderates the
relationship between foresight and the generative / creative
cognitive capacity within the context of formulating strategy.
Van der Laan, 2010
27. • Organisations that have a predominantly rational / transactive
strategic mode are likely to suppress the generative / creative
strategic thinking of its leadership.
• Those elements of strategic thinking that are creative,
innovative, time-orientated, ambiguous and yielding greater
levels of emergent strategy are suppressed (-.25 correlation)
Consequences:
Innovation / creative emergence is less likely
Available human capabilities are suppressed
Organisational strategy remains static and directive
28. • Future-orientated thinking :
– Creatively imagine infinite hypothetical future possibilities in order
to foresee and adapt to environmental changes.
– Generative process of creative problem solving and divergent
thinking in order to detect gaps in knowledge, patterns and trends.
(Fortunato and Furey, 2009)
• Individual Foresight
– human ability to creatively envision possible futures, understand
the complexity and ambiguity of systems
– provide input for the taking of provident care in detecting and
avoiding hazards while seeking to achieve a preferred future.
(van der Laan, 2010)
• Strategic Thinking
– strategic thinking is regarded as a synthesis of systematic analysis
and creative (generative) thought processes
– that seek to determine the longer-term direction of the
organisation.
(van der Laan, 2010)
29. Leadership Model for Innovation
• Significant empirical evidence suggests importance of foresight
and strategic thinking in facilitating generative / creative /
innovative emergent strategies.
• Plus need to transcend ‘flatlands’
• Requires a leadership model that is viable, visible and valuable
(Triple-V) in mapping sustainable learning futures.
30. Triple-V Model
STRATEGY FORMULATION
STRATEGIC
FORESIGHT
THIN KIN G
Analytical /
Orientation to Systems
Time Education orientated
Level Cognitions
Industry ORGANISATIONAL
Experience STRATEGY
Foresight PROCESSES
Education
Age
Creative /
Framer
Generative
Foresight Style
Cognitions
VIABLE VISIBLE VALUABLE
(van der Laan, 2010)
31. The Futures of Learning Futures?
• Familiarity with symbolic and methodological aspects of futures
(how are alternative futures produced and examined)
• Enhancement of ‘foresight’ literacy (using futures concerns as
sources for projects and creative initiatives)
• Encouragement of constructive and empowering attitudes (shift
negative attitudes to constructive preferred futures)
• Development of future-orientated thinking and leadership
• Support ‘ big picture’ thinking (and the continuity of change)
(Slaughter, 2002)
32. They couldn't hit an elephant at this dist…
General John B. Sedgwick, Union Army Civil War officer's last
words, uttered during the Battle of Spotsylvania, 1864
But we can hit the sun!