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Strategic Foresight Handout.pdf
1.
Introduction to Scenarios www.foresightintelligence.net
2.
Introduction to Scenarios Thank
you for your participation in our scenario workshop! This handout is for your personal use.
3.
© Foresight Intelligence
2019 We Assume Thinking About the Future is Foreknowing 3 Due to selective perception ⇒ (mental models) ⇐ Due to linear extrapolation (status quo bias; wishful thinking)
4.
© Foresight Intelligence
2019 4 Foresight is the systematic thinking about uncertain futures
5.
© Foresight Intelligence
2019 Strategic foresight is action-oriented foresight 5 Scenario construction, future studies Foresight Strategy development, long-term planning Strategic Foresight
6.
© Foresight Intelligence
2019 6 Scenarios are (strategic) foresight tools
7.
© Foresight Intelligence
2019 Scenarios vs. prognoses (foresights vs. forecasts) 7 Prognoses Scenarios Epistemology Predicting, explaining a future state Thought experiments about future developments Criteria Probability Plausibility Change Incremental Structural/fundamental Goal Foreknowing the future, creating knowledge about the future Better understanding of complex environment, making sense of an uncertain futures, avoiding surprise Approach Context independent information gathering Structured group process
8.
© Foresight Intelligence
2019 • Use of scenarios: “Hygiene of Thinking” 8 • Scenarios illustrate alternative developments and make them imaginable (reduce linear thinking). • The scenario process forces participants to systematically review their own thinking and perspectives. • Reduction of blind spots • Reduction of the bias blind spot
9.
© Foresight Intelligence
2019 • Use of scenarios: “Hygiene of Group Think” 9 • Scenarios can provide focal points in complicated discourses (avoid fragmentation/fray out). • Reducing group think/shared information bias • Reduce reactive devaluation (not-invented-here-syndrome) • The scenario process provides a platform for structured, interdisciplinary, and intercultural group communication.
10.
© Foresight Intelligence
2019 Approach 10 1. Scoping Topic Focal Question 6. Scenario Development Pictures of the Future Histories of the Future 7. Consequences Goals Opportunities and Threats 2. Environment Scanning Influential Factors 5. Scenario Construction Raw Scenarios for further elaboration 8. Implications Strategic Options Robust Approach 3. Factor Assessment Relevant Trends Key Uncertainties 4. Projections Alternative Assumptions for 2030
11.
Contact Liana Lim Hinch lh@foresightintelligence.net Direct:
+62 821 1319 5194 www.foresightintelligence.net
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