The document provides a strategic analysis of communications-based train control (CBTC) systems in the Western European urban rail market, highlighting growth driven by standardization and capacity demands. Key findings indicate an expected CAGR of 14.4% in operational length of CBTC systems, with Denmark and the UK projected as major markets, while Siemens is set to lead market share by 2021 with its Trainguard MT product. The report also discusses challenges, market trends, competitor profiles, and a future outlook for urban rail automation.

1. Strategic Analysis of Communication Based Train Control
Systems in the Western European Urban Rail Market
Standardization, Modularity and Capacity Demands Driving Growth
M92D-13
June 2013

2. 2M92D-13
Shyam Raman
Research Analyst
Automotive & Transportation
+1 416 495 2686
Shyam.raman@frost.com
Contact The Research Team
Lead Analyst

3. 3M92D-13
Contents
Section Slide Numbers
Executive Summary 5
Research Scope, Objectives, Methodology, and Background 18
Definitions and Segmentation 24
Overview of Urban Rail Signaling 29
Overcoming Challenges in Implementing CBTC 38
Cost Breakdown of Urban Rail Signaling Systems 46
Grades of Automation 51
Communications Based Train Control as Defined by the IEEE 1474 Standard 57
Platform and Track Protection (PTP) Systems 65
Mega Trends and Industry Convergence Implications 75

4. 4M92D-13
Contents (continued)
Section Slide Numbers
Total Market -
• External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints 84
Urban Rail CBTC Market -
• Forecasts and Trends—Communications Based Train Control 92
• Market Share and Competitive Analysis—Communications Based Train Control 102
Case Studies -
• The MODURBAN Project: European Rail Industry's Initiative to Standardize CBTC 108
• CBTC Migration Strategy of RATP, Paris and London Underground 115
• Full System Approach of Ansaldo STS 123
Competitor Profiles 128
Conclusions and Future Outlook 141
Appendix 145

5. 5M92D-13
Executive Summary

6. 6M92D-13
Executive Summary—Key Findings
Operational length of CBTC systems in Western Europe is growing at a CAGR of 14.4%.
Denmark and United Kingdom are expected to be the biggest markets for
implementing radio-based CBTC in the forecast period.
1
2
Invensys is going to be acquired by Siemens Mobility. Siemens is expected to deploy
its Trainguard MT CBTC product to 21 lines exceeding 360 km by end of forecast
period.
3
Western Europe is expected to have 726.2 km of Semi Automatic Train Operation
(STO), 440.1 km of Driverless Train Operation (DTO), and 174 km of Unattended
Train Operation (UTO) enabled by radio-based CBTC by end of forecast period.
4
Ansaldo STS’s future is uncertain and it could either be spun off or acquired.
Although it has an excellent product line and a strong customer base, its parent
company, Finmeccanica is in the midst of a financial crisis and its credit rating has
slumped to the lowest possible BBB-.
5
Top 3 competitors are Bombardier, Siemens, and Thales, with a total market share of
78.3% of all operational network length in 2011. The market value is expected to
increase by €2.17 billion during 2011–2021.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

7. 7M92D-13
Executive Summary—Market Engineering Measurements
The market value is expected to increase by €1.37 billion during 2011-2021. There is no clear trend on cost
per kilometer as it is highly dependent on several factors existing at the intended installation environment.
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Compound
Annual Growth
Rate
14.4%
Total Operational Network
Length
(CAGR, 2011-2021)
Market Stage
Growth
Market Value
€993 Million
2011
Market Volume
(Total Length
Operational)
350 km
2011
Average Price
per km*
€2.4 Million
Market Value for
Last Year of
Study Period
€3.59 Billion
2021
Base Year
Market Growth
Rate
N/A
Urban Rail Market: Market Engineering Measurements, Western Europe, 2011
Market Overview
Stable IncreasingDecreasing
Market
Concentration
78.3%
(% of market share held by
top 3 companies)
Number of
Competitors
6
(active market competitors in
base year)
Average R&D
Spend by
Product
N/A
*Signaling has a very custom approach. Each contract has to be tailored accounting for various factors.
CBTC prices vary from €1.2 to €4.7 Million per km. Hence we assume average cost of €2.4 Million per km.
For a tabular version, click here.

8. 8M92D-13
Executive Summary—Communication in Automated Urban Rail
The Communication subsystem does not perform any vital functions and is used for data transmission alone.
Therefore, commercial off-the-shelf systems can be used to lower CAPEX
Telecommunication
• SCADA
• Maintenance/Emergency Control
• Train Traffic Control
• Instant online radio communication
• Mobile monitoring and control for
engineers and conductors
Passenger Services
• Automatic Fare Collection
• Passenger Information System
• Emergency / Stop request
• Mobile access
• Surveillance
Signaling and Train control
• Train Protection Distance to Go
ATP and ATS
• Computerized Interlocking
• Track Circuits
• Radio-based balises
The urban rail environment has assimilated and
integrated heavily with IT
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Urban Rail Market: Simplified Schematic of Automated Urban Rail System, Western Europe, 2011
Image Sources: PESA; railway technical;
telecomseva.com; evoc.com

9. 9M92D-13
Executive Summary—CBTC Technology Roadmap
Commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) Wi-Fi and WiMax solutions are expected to become backbone of the CBTC
train to wayside communication system.
Urban Rail Market: CBTC Technology Roadmap, Western Europe, 2011-2021
TrainNetwork
TrainTo
Wayside
Communication
2011 2013 2017 2021
IEEE 802.11n
60Mbit/s
Source: Frost & Sullivan
IEEE 1473 L/T
Wire Train Bus
MVB –Standard
Vehicle Bus
IEEE 802.3bj 100 Gbit/s
IEEE 802.11ag
3.5 Gbit/s
IEEE 802.16e Rev2
35 Mbit/s
Induction Loop
The use of COTS enables frequent upgrading, allowing networks to keep up
with technology while staying relevant to economic situations - Operator
IEEE 802.11n
60Mbit/s for equipment that are non
vital

10. 10M92D-13
Executive Summary—Grades of Automation
Automatic train operation is segmented by grades of operation from semi automatic to unattended train
operation.
Automatic Train Protection
(ATP)
Automatic Train Operation
(ATO)
Automatic Train Supervision
(ATS)
ATP is the first step towards
automation. All primary safety
functions are automated.
Driving functions of the train can
be automated through the ATO
(basic driving to zero staff).
Real time automation of train
management and operations
regulation through ATS.
Grades of Automation (GOA)
• Only ATP with no ATOGOA 1
• STO–Semi Automatic Train Operation
• Trains run automatically between stations under driver supervision
• Driver operates doors, provides input for train to leave station and monitors operations
GOA 2:
• DTO–Driverless Train Operation
• Driver does not need to be at the front of the train or at the driving cab / controls
• Doors can be controlled automatically or from a separate location than the front cab
GOA 3
• UTO–Unattended Train Operation
• No need of crew on board.
• Automation of doors is mandatory
GOA 4
Urban Rail Market: Introduction to Grades of Automation, Western Europe, 2011
Source: Frost & Sullivan
CBTC is used to enable ATO

11. 11M92D-13
Executive Summary—Lines Capable of Automatic Train Operation
A total of 83 lines are currently capable of automatic operation, of which only 13 can be classified as radio-
based CBTC. Therefore, around 48 lines have the possibility of upgrading to CBTC in future.
France
CBTC: 10
UTO: 9
STO: 12
Germany
CBTC: 2
UTO: 2
STO: 1
9
Spain
CBTC: 4
UTO: 3
STO: 17
7
Switzerland
CBTC: 1
UTO: 1
1
UK
CBTC: 4
UTO: 2 | DTO: 1
STO: 5
Denmark
CBTC: 2
UTO: 2
Finland
CBTC: 0
STO: 1
1
Netherlands
CBTC: 0
STO: 0
5
It is important to keep in mind that all driverless systems are not CBTC. Automation is possible
even with low level ATO systems. Also, all radio based systems are not CBTC either. Finally, all
CBTC systems are not true moving block, they can also be virtual block based –OEM
Urban Rail Market: Number of Lines Capable of Automatic Operation, Western Europe, 2011 and 2021
Sweden
CBTC: 0
STO: 5
1
Italy
CBTC: 2
UTO:1
6
Greece
CBTC: 0
1
1410
10
Legend:
All numbers inside boxes denote signaling status of urban lines that are capable of ATO as of 2011.
denotes total number of lines operational with CBTC at end of forecast period (2021).
Note: All ATO systems are not CBTC. A line can have STO, DTO or UTO functionality without CBTC.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

12. 12M92D-13
STO
54.2%
DTO
32.8%
UTO
13.0%
Executive Summary—Brownfield Projects Prefer STO
Operators on existing lines choose STO to gain familiarity with CBTC technology, to upgrade the system at a
modest CAPEX, and to allow the workforce such as train drivers to move into other responsibilities.
30
1
9
13
1
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Brownfield Greenfield
NumberofProjects
Land Type
STO DTO UTO
Urban Rail Market: Number of Projects by Land
Type and GOA, Western Europe, 2021
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Most operators upgrading existing lines prefer to choose STO as the first level of CBTC
implementation. Scaling to DTO or UTO is a relatively simpler upgrade once the CBTC
framework is set up. As the workforce in most transit operators are unionized, there certainly
will be difficulties to implement UTO and completely take away existing jobs. Once CBTC is
installed, operators can slowly start the transition of train drivers/engineers towards
administrative, executive and technical roles. –OEM
Urban Rail Market: Market Share by GOA,
Western Europe, 2021

13. 13M92D-13
1 1
5
1
3
6
4
7
4
5 2
2
4
9
1 1
2
1 2 3
1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
NumberofLineswithCBTC
STO DTO UTO
Executive Summary—Converting towards Automatic Operation Priority
Out of 34 identified projects, 23 are brownfield conversions; less than 30% of projects are new lines under
construction.
Brownfield
69.8%
Greenfield
27.9%
Both
2.3%
Urban Rail Market: Number of Lines Expected to Operate
with CBTC, Western Europe, 2021
Source: Frost & Sullivan
• These 3 cities are expected to have majority automated metro systems:
• Copenhagen–Copenhagen Metro (Ansaldo) and Copenhagen S-Bane (Siemens)
• Paris–OCTYS + OURAGAN Project involving Ansaldo, Areva, Siemens and Thales
• London–Bombardier CityFlo 650 CBTC on SSR Lines and Thales Seltrac S40 on 3 lines.
Urban Rail Market: Market Share by
Number of Projects in Different
Land Types, Western Europe, 2012-
2021
Rail Automation and IT integration allow for remote monitoring on mobile devices for track-side
workers with applications that are on the cloud and independent of hardware requirements.“
– Operator
• 54.2% of all CBTC systems expected to be STO
by end of forecast period

14. 14M92D-13
Alstom Ansaldo STS Bombardier Invensys Siemens Thales
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
Radio-based CBTC Systems Installed
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0%
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Italy
Netherlands
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
Radio-based CBTC Systems Installed
Executive Summary—Competitive Positioning of CBTC Systems
For completion within 2011-2021, a total of 1,077.8 km of projects have been confirmed and construction is
underway. This is a significant increase over the previous with 188.9 km installed from 2001–2010.
Urban Rail Market: Competitive Environment of CBTC Systems, Western Europe, 2011 and 2021
Type of Block Alstom Ansaldo Bombardier Invensys Siemens Thales
CBTC Virtual
Block
Urbalis 200 Ansaldo CBTC CityFlo 450 SIRIUS Trainguard MT
Seltrac MS
CBTC Moving
Block
Urbalis 300
Urbalis Evolution
- CityFlo 650 - - Seltrac IS
Urban Rail Market: CBTC Products Categorised by Type of Block, Western Europe, 2011
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan
2011 2021

15. 15M92D-13
2011 2021
16.3%
3.1%
10.0%
15.7%
2.9%
8.7%
4.7%
8.4%
3.6%
26.6%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland UK
TrackLengthofCBTC
Denmark Finland France Germany Greece Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Switzerland UK
Executive Summary—Operational CBTC Forecast
London and Copenhagen aim to have fully automatic metro systems. Paris is expected to start automation of
other lines when CBTC projects in line 5 and 13 complete in 2013.
Urban Rail Market: Country-wise Market Share by Length of Operational CBTC,
Western Europe, 2011-2021
Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan
5.9%
37.0%
5.8%
11.5%
2.3%
16.9%
20.6%
13.8%
2.3%
16.4%
13.2%
9.3%
2.2%
10.4%
2.7%
0.5%
25.7%
3.5%
• Siemens with Trainguard MT is expected to be market leader with 39.5% of market share of total CBTC
network operational in 2021. Thales is expected to follow with a share of 19.8%.
• Germany is expected to order CBTC upgrades for it’s urban rail systems post 2015. Nuremberg metro is
expected to upgrade it’s U1 line only after the extension of U3 line completes in 2018.
• Metro Systems in Denmark and United Kingdom (UK) are expected to contribute towards 52.6% of CBTC
implementation during the forecast period.
Note: The center chart shows the market share by length of CBTC network that is expected to be operational in the forecast period (2012-2021) in each
country.

16. 16M92D-13
Parameters Current Future
Market Status
• The potential size of the market is vast and not fully
penetrated. The total length of metro and light rail systems in
Western Europe is over 8,100km. Only 1,340 km is expected
to have operational CBTC by 2021.
• Market is placed in the launch pad for robust growth in
implementation of CBTC.
• CBTC is expected to become industry standard in urban
rail signaling. Its scalability allows for various levels of
automation.
Competition
• 78.3% of the market is consolidated by 3 participants
(Siemens, Bombardier and Thales).
• Standardization is going to increase competition. Orders
for green field projects are expected to be won by
participants providing a holistic solution of rolling stock +
signaling.
Solutions
• Moving block and virtual moving block systems offer
comparable performance.
• Moving block systems expected to become standard as
they will provide higher response times that virtual moving
block systems cannot match.
Technology • Induction-based and radio-based systems
• Induction-based communication systems to become
obsolete
• Multi modal communication platforms (Wi-fi + Cellular +
Satellite)
Barriers to Entry in
Western European
Market
• Handful of global suppliers are capable of providing CBTC.
• Highly expensive technology platform deters new participants
from entering the market
• Unlikely to change.
Executive Summary—Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
CBTC systems are expected to become standard signaling solutions for urban rail systems.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

17. 17M92D-13
Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and
Methodology

18. 18M92D-13
Research Scope
Communications Based Train Control Systems, Urban Rail SignalingTopics Covered
2012 to 2021Forecast Period
2011 to 2021Study Period
2011Base Year
Western Europe - Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands,
Spain, Sweden, Switzerland and The United Kingdom
Geographical Scope
Source: Frost & Sullivan
5.9%
37.0%
5.8%
11.5%
16.9%
2.3%
20.6%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
MarketSharebyLengthof
OperationalCBTC
Urban Rail Market: Country-wise Market Share by Length of Operational CBTC, Western Europe, 2011

19. 19M92D-13
Research Aims and Objectives
Aim
The aim of this study is to evaluate the revenue growth opportunities available in the communications-
based train control industry. The study defines drivers and restraints to the market, market share analysis,
and strategic market sizing forecasts for urban rail networks that are automated.
Objectives
• Provide a strategic overview of the urban rail CBTC market in Western Europe, including key
technology trends, market drivers and restraints for the CBTC market.
• Provide market size and forecasts of future implementation of CBTC systems in new and existing urban
rail systems
• Provide revenue forecasts of the Western European CBTC stock market by segment and breakdown by
region from 2011–2021
• Competitor analysis: Analyze competitive factors, competitor market shares, and product portfolio
analysis and capabilities
Source: Frost & Sullivan

20. 20M92D-13
Key Questions This Study Will Answer
Who are the leading suppliers of CBTC systems in Western Europe?
Where are the new opportunities in signaling for urban rail systems?
In which direction is the urban rail signaling technology heading? Will radio-based signaling see rapid
uptake in urban rail environment? If so, then in which environment and segment?
What is the market share of participants in the CBTC market? Who is expected to be the market
leader in CBTC in each country in Western Europe by 2021?
Source: Frost & Sullivan
What is the business environment of the Western European CBTC market, the dynamics and its
impact on mobility and urbanization?
Urban Rail Market: Key Questions This Study Will Answer, Western Europe, 2011

21. 21M92D-13
Year RS Code Research Service Title
Regional
Scope
2012 M77E-18 Growth Opportunities In Urban Rail Rolling Stock Systems In Europe Europe
2012 M77D-18 Strategic Insight on Global Rail Market Global
2011 M4DD-18 Strategic Analysis of the Global High Speed Rail Market Global
2011 M64A-18
North American Locomotive Market: A Strategic Analysis of Powertrain Technologies and Auxiliary Systems
Considered by OEMs for EPA Emission Compliance
North America
2011 M6DB-18
Strategic Analysis of Alternative Powertrain Technologies in the European Diesel Locomotive and Railcar
Market
Europe
2011 N92D-18 An Executive Analysis on Passenger Rail Rolling Stock and Seating Systems Market in the U.S. United States
2011 P488-18 Green Technologies and Developments in Rail Transportation APAC
2010 M649-18
European Rail Catenary Systems – Executive Analysis of Copper Requirement for Electrification across
Strategic European Markets
Europe
2009 M3F5-18 Strategic Analysis of the European Rail Electrification Market Europe
2009 M1B6-18
Strategic Analysis of the European Light Rail and Underground Market - Part 2: Market Engineering
Measurements
Europe
2009 P2A3-18 Strategic Analysis of the Growth Opportunities in the Indian Rail Industry India
2009 M363-18 Strategic Opportunity Analysis of the Russian Rail Market: Implication for the Global Supply Chain Russia
2008 P391-18 360 Degree CEO Perspective on Green Transportation: Focus on Rail, Automotive and Procurement Global
Research Background
This research service strengthens our coverage of the rail industry.
Source: Frost & Sullivan

22. 22M92D-13
Company Designation
Centro Media Manager
Thales
Managing Director, Market
Analyst
Invensys Rail Ltd Head of Innovation
RATP
External Business
Development Manager
Vectus Ltd. CTO, MD
ULTra PRT Financial Controller
2getthere Commercial Director
Rock Project Project Manager
TFL UK Project Manager
Siemens plc Project Manager
Thales Market Analyst
Ansaldo STS VP (Investor Relations)
Bombardier Chief Innovation Officer
Ansaldo STS Director Global – Signaling
Siemens Partner
ALSTOM
TRANSPORT
Deputy Vice President
Investor Relations, Director
Urban Strategy
Research Methodology: Frost &
Sullivan’s research services are based on
secondary and primary research data.
Secondary Research: Extraction of
information from existing reports and
project material within the Frost &
Sullivan database, to include data and
information gathered form technical
papers, specialized magazines, seminars
and internet research.
Primary Research: More than 10
interviews have been conducted over the
phone by senior consultants/industry
analysts with original equipment
suppliers, regulation authorities and
distributors. Primary research has
accounted for 80% of the total research.
Research Methodology
Company Designation
Skoda
Transportation
Vice President Sales
Keolis Nordic AB
Chairman of the
Board
AB Stockholms
Spårvägar
Chairman
Barcelona Metro Project Manager
Roma Metro Technical Director
Milan Metro Technical Manager
Copenhagen Metro Project Engineer
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Urban Rail Market: Key Industry Participants, Western
Europe, 2011

23. 23M92D-13
Key OEM Groups/Participants Compared in this Study
Group OEMs / Divisions
Alstom Alstom Transportation
Bombardier Bombardier Transportation
Finmeccanica Ansaldo STS
Invensys Invensys Rail
Siemens Siemens Mobility
Thales Thales Transportation
The OEM groups and companies compared in this study are as follows:
Source: Frost & Sullivan