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STOP GUESSING! 
adding science to magic in 
managing the implementation 
of innovative ideas 
© BSG. All rights reserved. 
22 September 2014
What we know: the world is getting smaller, again… 
© BSG. All rights reserved. 
Convergence…
Everybody wants to own the platform 
If you own the platform, you own the customer, 
otherwise you’re just a value-added service provider…. 
© BSG. All rights reserved. 
22 September 2014
© BSG. All rights reserved. 
Product Service 
Value 
But what do our customers need? 
Nobody knows for sure, not even our 
customers…. 
Best match wins
We’re smart people after all… 
so we have good ideas! 
© BSG. All rights reserved. 
How have we (mostly) always done 
things? 
Typically, it takes a long time to get from initial commitments to actual results… 
and HOPE 
The Big 
launch 
Grand plan Blueprint 
Dedicate 
resources 
Build 
Do we know 
enough? 
What do we 
need to 
move to 
looking like? 
Who? 
How much? 
What am I 
committing to 
show as a 
return? 
Overruns? 
Why is it 
taking so 
long? 
Will it 
work? 
1 
2 
3 
Is this the right 
thing to do? 
Are we managing 
expectations 
effectively? 
Are we confident that this 
will work? 
Is there another way? 
Real customers, in real situations, are often not part of this at all! 
Vanity metrics!
Does it work? 
Alan Smithee – 
78 movie credits 
on IMDB.com 
© BSG. All rights reserved.
So where does this leave us? 
© BSG. All rights reserved. 
HOPE 
Making big bets and 
hoping for the best 
Build confidence iteratively, in line 
with investment
There have always only been two good outcomes for 
© BSG. All rights reserved. 
any idea 
Knowing 
NOT Knowing 
Thinking it’s still a good idea but not knowing 
Knowing
A better way to innovate 
© BSG. All rights reserved. 
If we know that we don’t have all the 
answers, why are we surprised that we 
22 September 2014 
get things wrong?
Origin of the Lean Start-up 
Recognition that existing businesses execute a business 
model, while start-ups look for one! 
© BSG. All rights reserved. 
Start-ups were originally based on valuing 
business plans 
No customer 
feedback built in 
No confidence in 
5 year view 
BUSINESS 
CASE
Innovation + ongoing validation = invest with confidence 
Proceed with 
confidence 
Get Production, Sales & 
Marketing involved 
ROI justifiable 
© BSG. All rights reserved. 
22 September 2014 
Pivot 
Create Context 
What should the 
business look like? 
Problem / 
Solution Fit 
Is there a problem 
worth solving? 
Product / 
Market Fit 
Do we have a solution 
that people are 
prepared to 
pay for? 
Scale 
Proven market 
product - invest in 
growth! 
Business model canvas 
Research insights, analytics 
UVP Canvas 
Get out of the building 
MVP 
Develop the smallest 
set of functions that you 
can use to get feedback 
from real people – early 
adopters 
1 
2 
3 
4 
MEASURE 
Persevere
Create context: The Business Model Canvas 
No customer 
feedback built in 
© BSG. All rights reserved. 
UVP Canvas 
UVP Canvas 
UVP Canvas
The Unique Value Proposition Model 
1 – 2: What is the problem 
we’re solving, and is it a 
problem worth solving? 
No customer 
feedback built in 
© BSG. All rights reserved. 
22 September 2014 
3 – 4: Will the 
market be willing 
to pay for our 
solution? 
everything! 
“Get out of 
the building!” 
Test
© BSG. All rights reserved. 
HYPOTHESIS 
How does this 
align to our 
business model 
Focus 
Is this worth 
solving? 
Let’s test 
MVP 
REFINE 
EXECUTE 
Will the market buy it? 
Let’s build and test with 
early adopters 
Build the business! 
Scale execution 
Operations 
Find partners 
Product 
Market fit 
Sales and Marketing roadmap 
What’s our 
next great 
idea? 
How does the business 
fit together? 
1. Problem? 
2. Solution? 
3. Pay? 
GREAT 
IDEA 
BAD 
IDEA 
UVP 
STOP GUESSING!
MVP 
Pivot or 
persevere 
Build / 
Measure / 
Learn 
Customer 
needs 
Vanity 
metrics 
UVP 
Failing is 
good – as 
long as we do 
it quickly and 
cheaply 
© BSG. All rights reserved. New concepts to appreciate
Checklist to create confidence 
© BSG. All rights reserved. 
Be prepared to fail and expect to do so! 
Include customers in ALL steps 
Arm yourself with enough research data to make a start 
Then build the smallest thing you need to get real feedback 
Use this to validate your ideas, and set direction in terms of 
pivoting or persevering 
22 September 2014 
When you’ve validated Problem / Solution fit, and Product / 
Market fit, then Scale with confidence!
Who is doing this already? 
In a world of rapidly reducing barriers to entry, 1,000s of 
start-ups that you haven’t heard of (yet) but who will 
probably be your next competitors, very, very soon! 
© BSG. All rights reserved.
References 
© BSG. All rights reserved. 
22 September 2014 
The Business Model Generation by 
Alex Osterwalder 
‘Why the Lean Start-up changes 
everything’ 
HBR article by Steve Blank 
The Lean Startup by Eric Ries 
Running Lean by Ash Maurya
Cape Town Johannesburg London 
Laura Greaves 
Business Development 
+27 11 215 6666 
laura.greaves@bsg.co.za 
Oxford Terrace 
3 Ninth Street 
Houghton Estate 
2198 
www.bsg.co.za // @bsgafrica 
Laura Greaves 
Business Development 
+27 11 215 6666 
laura.greaves@bsg.co.za 
Triangle House 
22 Riebeek Street 
Cape Town 
8001 
www.bsg.co.za // @bsgafrica 
David Reinhardt 
Regional Delivery Manager 
+44 7841 947 198 
david.reinhardt@bsguk.co.uk 
CityPoint 
1 Ropemaker Street 
London 
EC2Y 9HT 
www.bsgdelivers.com // @bsguk

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Stop Guessing BSG Market Segmentation and Product Analysis Conference (September 2014)

  • 1. STOP GUESSING! adding science to magic in managing the implementation of innovative ideas © BSG. All rights reserved. 22 September 2014
  • 2. What we know: the world is getting smaller, again… © BSG. All rights reserved. Convergence…
  • 3. Everybody wants to own the platform If you own the platform, you own the customer, otherwise you’re just a value-added service provider…. © BSG. All rights reserved. 22 September 2014
  • 4. © BSG. All rights reserved. Product Service Value But what do our customers need? Nobody knows for sure, not even our customers…. Best match wins
  • 5. We’re smart people after all… so we have good ideas! © BSG. All rights reserved. How have we (mostly) always done things? Typically, it takes a long time to get from initial commitments to actual results… and HOPE The Big launch Grand plan Blueprint Dedicate resources Build Do we know enough? What do we need to move to looking like? Who? How much? What am I committing to show as a return? Overruns? Why is it taking so long? Will it work? 1 2 3 Is this the right thing to do? Are we managing expectations effectively? Are we confident that this will work? Is there another way? Real customers, in real situations, are often not part of this at all! Vanity metrics!
  • 6. Does it work? Alan Smithee – 78 movie credits on IMDB.com © BSG. All rights reserved.
  • 7. So where does this leave us? © BSG. All rights reserved. HOPE Making big bets and hoping for the best Build confidence iteratively, in line with investment
  • 8. There have always only been two good outcomes for © BSG. All rights reserved. any idea Knowing NOT Knowing Thinking it’s still a good idea but not knowing Knowing
  • 9. A better way to innovate © BSG. All rights reserved. If we know that we don’t have all the answers, why are we surprised that we 22 September 2014 get things wrong?
  • 10. Origin of the Lean Start-up Recognition that existing businesses execute a business model, while start-ups look for one! © BSG. All rights reserved. Start-ups were originally based on valuing business plans No customer feedback built in No confidence in 5 year view BUSINESS CASE
  • 11. Innovation + ongoing validation = invest with confidence Proceed with confidence Get Production, Sales & Marketing involved ROI justifiable © BSG. All rights reserved. 22 September 2014 Pivot Create Context What should the business look like? Problem / Solution Fit Is there a problem worth solving? Product / Market Fit Do we have a solution that people are prepared to pay for? Scale Proven market product - invest in growth! Business model canvas Research insights, analytics UVP Canvas Get out of the building MVP Develop the smallest set of functions that you can use to get feedback from real people – early adopters 1 2 3 4 MEASURE Persevere
  • 12. Create context: The Business Model Canvas No customer feedback built in © BSG. All rights reserved. UVP Canvas UVP Canvas UVP Canvas
  • 13. The Unique Value Proposition Model 1 – 2: What is the problem we’re solving, and is it a problem worth solving? No customer feedback built in © BSG. All rights reserved. 22 September 2014 3 – 4: Will the market be willing to pay for our solution? everything! “Get out of the building!” Test
  • 14. © BSG. All rights reserved. HYPOTHESIS How does this align to our business model Focus Is this worth solving? Let’s test MVP REFINE EXECUTE Will the market buy it? Let’s build and test with early adopters Build the business! Scale execution Operations Find partners Product Market fit Sales and Marketing roadmap What’s our next great idea? How does the business fit together? 1. Problem? 2. Solution? 3. Pay? GREAT IDEA BAD IDEA UVP STOP GUESSING!
  • 15. MVP Pivot or persevere Build / Measure / Learn Customer needs Vanity metrics UVP Failing is good – as long as we do it quickly and cheaply © BSG. All rights reserved. New concepts to appreciate
  • 16. Checklist to create confidence © BSG. All rights reserved. Be prepared to fail and expect to do so! Include customers in ALL steps Arm yourself with enough research data to make a start Then build the smallest thing you need to get real feedback Use this to validate your ideas, and set direction in terms of pivoting or persevering 22 September 2014 When you’ve validated Problem / Solution fit, and Product / Market fit, then Scale with confidence!
  • 17. Who is doing this already? In a world of rapidly reducing barriers to entry, 1,000s of start-ups that you haven’t heard of (yet) but who will probably be your next competitors, very, very soon! © BSG. All rights reserved.
  • 18. References © BSG. All rights reserved. 22 September 2014 The Business Model Generation by Alex Osterwalder ‘Why the Lean Start-up changes everything’ HBR article by Steve Blank The Lean Startup by Eric Ries Running Lean by Ash Maurya
  • 19. Cape Town Johannesburg London Laura Greaves Business Development +27 11 215 6666 laura.greaves@bsg.co.za Oxford Terrace 3 Ninth Street Houghton Estate 2198 www.bsg.co.za // @bsgafrica Laura Greaves Business Development +27 11 215 6666 laura.greaves@bsg.co.za Triangle House 22 Riebeek Street Cape Town 8001 www.bsg.co.za // @bsgafrica David Reinhardt Regional Delivery Manager +44 7841 947 198 david.reinhardt@bsguk.co.uk CityPoint 1 Ropemaker Street London EC2Y 9HT www.bsgdelivers.com // @bsguk