1) The document describes a modeling system called Amazon Scenarios that is used to simulate baseline deforestation rates and potential emissions reductions from REDD+ projects in the Brazilian Amazon. 2) The model takes into account factors like protected areas, indigenous lands, roads, soils and historical deforestation patterns to generate high and low estimates of business-as-usual deforestation under different policy scenarios. 3) Results from the Amazon Scenarios model have been used to estimate baseline deforestation and emissions reductions for several specific REDD+ projects in Brazil, including in the states of Amazonas, Rondonia, Acre, and Mato Grosso.

1. Centro de Sensoriamento RemotoUNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAISModelling spatially explicit forward-looking baselinesClaudia SticklerREDDex, July 13-15, 2010

2. Applications of the Amazon Scenarios modeling system in Amazon REDD projectsJuma (Amazonas State)**

3. Surui (Rondonia indigenous land project)**

4. State of Acre

5. Northwestern MatoGrosso project**

6. Xingu Social-environmental Carbon

7. Brazilian Amazon** Used model results not developed for reference level estimation

9. MatoGrosso REDD targets within a national programAnnual Deforestation (km2)

10. Indigenous Lands~60% of areaProtected AreasSustainable Use Areas~98% of deforestationPrivate Lands508,474 km2>95% of possible REDD+ participant nations

11. Historical average3.3% = 10,502 ha/yr2.3% = 216,376 ha/yr1.3% = 483,380 ha/yr0.0035% = 3791 ha/yrNepstad et al. 2010

12. Simulated (modeled) baselineDinamica EGO platform (www.csr.ufmg.br/dinamica/)

13. High to medium resolution (100-m to 1-km)

14. Calibrated and run at nested sub-basin levels

15. Regrows forests and cerradoStickler et al. 2009 GCB; Stickler 2009

16. Sub-basins (2nd order)Variable types for calibrationclearingroadstopographypopulation centersstreamsprotected areassoils/suitability

17. Basic units of changeMicrobasins (7th order +)7572 watershedsmean = 5981 harange: 1 – 70,766 haCells2940 x 7434 cells4 ha (200 x 200-m)

18. ScenariosBusiness as Usualhistorical rate and pattern of deforestation continueshistorical level of compliance with environmental legislation continueslow, high, averagevarying weight of historical protection of PAs, ILs, etc.Current Forest Code 80% “legal reserve” (RL) in forest biome; 35% RL in cerrado; 100% forest in riparian zoneVarying protection of indigenous lands, protected areasState Zoning Plans4 zones: 80% forest RL in 2 zones; 50% forest RL in 1 zone; 35% cerrado RL in 3 zones; 100% forest in riparian zoneVarying protection of indigenous lands, protected areas Stickler 2009; Nepstad et al. 2010

19. HighLowNepstad et al. 2010

20. Comparison of modeled baselines with historical average, Xingu River BasinNepstad et al. 2010

21. Initial(2007)BAU Average(2037)BAU Low(2037)BAU High(2037)

22. Comparison of modeled baselines with policy intervention scenariosNepstad et al. 2010

23. BAU Average(2037)Forest Code(2037)Zoning(2037)Forest Code + 20% in ILs(2037)

24. Emissions avoided (Xingu River Basin)Implementation of Forest Code (private lands) & strict protection of ILs and PAs

25. Comparison of modeled baselines for private lands in the Xingu River basinNepstad et al. 2010

26. Comparison of modeled baselines for indigenous lands in the Xingu River basinNepstad et al. 2010

27. Nepstad et al. 2010

28. Carbon stocks & emissionsonindigenouslands in theBrazilian AmazonNivel de amenazaPriorización de áreas protegidasSoares-Filho et al. 2010 PNAS

29. Modeledbaselinesbased on forest transition?North Amazon BasinCongo Basin South Amazon BasinNational forest coverEurope North AmericaSouth East AsiaNorth East AsiaSouth AsiaWest AfricaOceaniaAtlantic forestTime(Zarin et al. 2009)

30. Assessing ecological & economic trade-offsHydrology:THMB surface hydrology transport model (Coe et al. 2000, 2009)

31. Climate

32. Water Quality: Basic indicators (Neill et al. 2006, Nepstad et al. 2007; Macedo et al., in prep.)

33. Habitat Quality & Biodiversity Potential

34. Fire Incidence (and associated CO2 emissions) (Silvestrini et al. 2009, Stickler et al. in prep)

35. Carbon sequestration potential

36. Opportunity cost

37. Restoration costsCollaboratorsAne Alencar (IPAM)Oriana Almeida (IPAM, UFPa)Alessandro Baccini (WHRC)Paulo Brando (IPAM)Oswaldo Carvalho (IPAM)Andrea Cattaneo (OECD)Mike Coe (WHRC)Laura Dietzsch (IPAM)Josef Kellndorfer (WHRC)Andre Lima (IPAM)Marcia Macedo (Columbia U)Paulo Moutinho (IPAM)Daniel Nepstad (IPAM)Hermann Rodrigues (UFMG)Britaldo Soares Filho (UFMG)Osvaldo Stella (IPAM)Wayne Walker (WHRC)Toby McGrath (WHRC, IPAM)Frank Merry (Moore)Maria Bowman (UCB, WHRC)John Carter (AT)Sergio Rivero (UFPa)UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DE MINAS GERAIS

39. Sample of REDD-Relevant Publications from Amazon Scenarios ProgramMerry, F., B. Soares-Filho, D. Nepstad, G. Amacher, and H. Rodrigues. 2009. Balancing conservation and economic stability: the future of the Amazon timber industry. Environmental ManagementNepstad, D., B. Soares-Filho, F. Merry, A. Lima, P. Moutinho, et al. 2009. The end of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. Science 326: 1350-1351.Nepstad, D, A. Veríssimo, A. Alencar, etal. 1999. Large-scale impoverishment of Amazonian forests by logging and fire. Nature. 398:505-508.Soares-Filho, B. S., P. Moutinho, D. Nepstad, et al. 2010. Role of Brazilian Amazon protected areas in climate mitigation. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci.Soares-Filho, B., D. Nepstad, L. Curran, et al. 2006. Modeling Amazon conservation. Nature 440: 520-523.Stickler, C.M., D.C. Nepstad, M.T. Coe, D.G. McGrath, H.O. Rodrigues, et al. 2009. The potential ecological costs and cobenefits of REDD: a critical review and case study from the Amazon region. Global Change Biology 15:2803–2824 Vera-Diaz, M. del C., R. K. Kaufmann, D. C. Nepstad, P. Schlesinger. 2007. An interdisciplinary model of soybean yield in the Amazon Basin: the climatic,edaphic, and economic determinants. Ecological Economics

41. Lima et al. 2010; Nepstad et al. 2010

42. Potential nesting of the Xingu “Socio-environmental Carbon” ProjectC-REDDs Allocated to Amazon StatesMato Grosso C-REDD Allocation C-REDD Allocation to Other StatesState Institutions/GovernanceC-REDD BufferPrivate Land ProgramProtected Area ProgramFarm Settlement ProgramIndigenous Land Program100 MtCO2e$RegulatedEntities, Other InvestorsIndigenous Land Fund“C-REDDs”Indigenous Land Projects (Xingu, NW, etc.)Mato Grosso Indigenous Land Systemic Program

43. Historical average extended into futureNepstad et al. 2010