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Tnc country pathways andrasko
- 1. Forest Carbon Partnership Facility Pathways to Success on REDD+: Countries Learning from Each Other Ken Andrasko World Bank/Environment Dept./FCPF program At TNC REDD eX conference, Cancun, Mexico July 13-16, 2010 www.forestcarbonpartnership.org
- 2. REDD + is ... a policy rocket with broad support: Now what?? The Good News: • REDD+ is likely to happen. • Serious discussion of up‐scaling and funding. • We are slowly invenJng how to do REDD+, at project and naJonal scales. The Other News: • But we need to harvest lessons faster, & apply them at larger scales. • We need to share experience & rapidly develop a vision of what naJonal REDD+ looks like. Achieving REDD+ is a learning-by-doing endeavor for countries
- 3. Countries Start From Different Points, and Lose Forest as They Develop. Can REDD+ alter this path? National forest cover Forest TransiJon Curve North Amazon Basin Congo Basin Conservation REDD+ bridge ? South Amazon Basin Europe REDD North America South East Asia North East Asia South Asia West Africa Enhancement Oceania Atlantic forest Time Source: Zarin, 2009
- 4. Three major levers of forest based mi2ga2on, each with different characteris2cs Project Catalyst slide, Copenhagen 2009 Reduced Forest-based abatement deforestation and potential forest degradation Gt CO2e / yr 8 (REDD) LARGEST 6 Enhancement of Forest Carbon Stocks & A/R 3 MEDIUM 2 1 Conservation & 2015 2020 2030 Sustainable Management of Forests SMALLEST Source: McKinsey Global GHG Abatement Cost Curve v2.0; Project Catalyst analysis 4
- 5. Only 30 countries cover 90 percent of deforestaJon and 80 percent of carbon stock. (ForestaJon is more concentrated) Project Catalyst slide, Copenhagen, 2009 Emissions from deforestation Gt CO2e 0.5 0 0 0.1 90% Brazil Indonesia Other top 20 Remaining 9 Next (54) China and Rest of S. Total deforestation with >1% of high/medium India hemisphere countries total ABG deforestation developing carbon stock countries countries 3V 80% 12 4 4 ABG Carbon stock FRA 2005, % of total Source: Houghton; FAO FRA 2005; Hooijer, A. et al., PEAT-CO2, Delft Hydraulics report Q3943 (2006); Project Catalyst analysis 5
- 6. Challenge: How torapidly build REDD+ capacity in countries .. . . . while integraJng REDD+ into naJonal development plans, and altering land use incenJves and behavior … for lasJng transformaJon to low‐ carbon development paths ? 6
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- 8. Countries Start From DisJnct SituaJons: Land Use Trends, DeforestaJon Drivers, Governance Relative Forest Disclaimer: maps are for illustrative cover Suriname: purposes only. World Bank has no 2000 – 3000 ha views on national boundaries DR: 0%) Indonesia: 1,800,000 ha DR: 1.5 – 2%) Panama: 48,000 ha DR: 0.8 – 1.1%) Ghana: 120,000 ha DR: 1.6 – 2.0 %) Guyana: Absolute deforestation: 20 – 30,000 ha, Deforestation rate (DR: 0.1 – 0.3%) Time The countries on the transitional curve… 8 Courtesy of Juergen Blaser, of FCPF Technical Advisory panel
- 9. REDD Readiness AcJviJes (per FCPF ) Contents of Readiness PreparaJon Proposal (R‐PP): Component 1: Organize and Consult 1a. Na2onal Readiness Management Arrangements 1b. Stakeholder Consulta2on and Par2cipa2on Component 2: Prepare the REDD plus Strategy 2a. Assessment of Land Use, Forest Policy and Governance 2b. REDD Strategy Op2ons 2c. REDD Implementa2on Framework 2d. Social and Environmental Impacts Component 3: Develop a Reference Scenario Component 4: Design a Monitoring System 4a. Emissions and Removals 4b. Other Benefits and Impacts Component 5: Schedule and Budget Component 6: Monitoring & EvaluaJon of program 9
- 10. REDD+ requires strongly interrelated program components. Inadequate design of one leads to unsustainable or unmarketable REDD Stakeholder Consulta2ons MRV System Assessment of REDD+ Design: DeforestaJon Strategy Drivers + Governance and Programs Measure and report on change Establish reference scenario over Jme 10 High quality MRV may be required for participation in global REDD markets & avoidance of REDD tonne price discounting.
- 11. REDD Readiness AcJviJes (per FCPF ) • Contents of Readiness Prepara2on Proposal (R‐PP): Component 1: Organize and Consult 1a. Na2onal Readiness Management Arrangements 1b. Stakeholder Consulta2on and Par2cipa2on Component 2: Prepare the REDD plus Strategy 2a. Assessment of Land Use, Forest Policy and Governance 2b. REDD Strategy Op2ons 2c. REDD Implementa2on Framework 2d. Social and Environmental Impacts Component 3: Develop a Reference Scenario Component 4: Design a Monitoring System 4a. Emissions and Removals 4b. Other Benefits and Impacts Component 5: Schedule and Budget Component 6: Monitoring & EvaluaJon of program
- 12. Inclusive consultaJons on REDD+ are criJcal early need to forge a common vision on REDD+ INSIGHT: Transparentearly consultations with major stakeholders offers promise of REDD+ becoming more inclusive than previous land use dialogues. • Consultations will require new openness from governments and stakeholders… and need to broaden over time. Examples: • Panama included IP leaders in formulaJon of R‐PP, and in naJonal delegaJon to COP14 Poznan, 2008 • Ghana, Nepal, DRC offer detailed mulJ‐stakeholder consultaJon plans. 14 12
- 13. ParJcipaJon in REDD Design Can Challenge TradiJonal RelaJonships Between Governments & Stakeholders • Issue of REDD system design can inherit pre‐exisJng failures, unresolved governance, land tenure uncertainty. • Or, be fresh start.
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- 15. Consultations in Preparationand Refinement of DRC’s R-PP: Seeking a Consensual Plan Since April 2009, Since January 2010, >100 National REDD R-PP validation people refined R-PP via workshop Coordination consulted 4 consultation had 80 participants > 700 people. workshops.
- 16. REDD Readiness AcJviJes (per FCPF ) • Contents of Readiness Prepara2on Proposal (R‐PP): Component 1: Organize and Consult 1a. Na2onal Readiness Management Arrangements 1b. Stakeholder Consulta2on and Par2cipa2on Component 2: Prepare the REDD plus Strategy 2a. Assessment of Land Use, Forest Policy and Governance 2b. REDD Strategy Op2ons 2c. REDD Implementa2on Framework 2d. Social and Environmental Impacts Component 3: Develop a Reference Scenario Component 4: Design a Monitoring System 4a. Emissions and Removals 4b. Other Benefits and Impacts Component 5: Schedule and Budget 16
- 17. Linking SubnaJonal Pilot Projects to NaJonal REDD: e.g., Indonesia (e.g., Berau), DRC, Brazil, Mexico National Baseline, ISSUES TO RESOLVE: Accounting & monitoring • Harmonizing reference scenarios & MRV between: • NaJonal scale, Inter-regional • SubnaJonal regions, strategy and • REDD projects. policies • Use registry of acJviJes? • Who owns emissions REGION 1: REGION 3: reducJons? baseline & REGION 2: baseline & policies baseline & policies • How revenues would be policies shared? • How acJviJes are regulated? Adapted from: Andrea Cattaneo, Woods Hole Research Center
- 18. REDD+ requires unprecedented naJonal planning across sectors. Requires integrated vision of how REDD+ fits into emerging national, low-carbon development strategy. • Mainstreaming REDD+ may require putting REDD at the center of national development policy • . . . elevated to highest levels of government. Examples: • DRC Congo’s REDD unit using its R‐PP to coordinate across ministries, donors, and FCPF and UN‐REDD programs. • Guyana developing Low Carbon Development Strategy led by its President. 18
- 19. CoordinaJng NaJonal REDD AcJviJes: DemocraJc Republic of Congo example Harmonized Components REDD Activities and Funding of Readiness Coordinated via Single Country (UN-REDD / FFCPF) Readiness Preparation In Country’s FCPF R-PP: Proposal: (R-PP) Management of Readiness UN‐REDD REDD Strategy OpJons DRC’s naJonal REDD ImplementaJon process Framework and FCPF Reference Scenario workplan Other NaJonal Monitoring System Donors
- 20. What REDD Strategy Makes Sense for Each Region & Its DeforestaJon Drivers & Governance Status ?? Himalaya Mountains: NEPAL Exploitation for fuelwood Siliwak and Middle Hills: Community forestry innovation Terai Lowland Forest: Larger-scale agriculture; immigration; recent conflict Total Area: 147,181 Sq. Km. Population: 24 M
- 21. Linking REDD toLow Carbon Development Strategy: Finding Feasible Options (DRC example) From: “Democratic Republic of Congo’s REDD+ Potential,” December 2009 High AfforestaJon Fuelwood for Fossil Fuel Intensified Subsistence Agriculture Agriculture Scale of GHG Commercial Agriculture Mitigation (extensive) other Irrigated other Agriculture Low Feasibility of REDD Option High
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- 23. REDD Readiness AcJviJes (per FCPF ) • Contents of Readiness Prepara2on Proposal (R‐PP): Component 1: Organize and Consult 1a. Na2onal Readiness Management Arrangements 1b. Stakeholder Consulta2on and Par2cipa2on Component 2: Prepare the REDD plus Strategy 2a. Assessment of Land Use, Forest Policy and Governance 2b. REDD Strategy Op2ons 2c. REDD Implementa2on Framework 2d. Social and Environmental Impacts Component 3: Develop a Reference Scenario Component 4: Design a Monitoring System 4a. Emissions and Removals 4b. Other Benefits and Impacts Component 5: Schedule and Budget 23
- 24. REDD AcJviJes Selected Vary in Timing, & Affect Reference Case & MRV Design. DegradaJon is More Complex 24
- 25. Reference Case: Global Requirements & Guidance Likely Different from NaJonal & Project Needs. HarmonizaJon is Challenging. Global Global Objective Target Reference Reference Case?: Case ?? ‐ Via nego2a2ons? (independent, ‐ ‐ via analy2c via remote Regional method? sensing?) Reference Case: 4‐5 countries Issues: National - National scale probably key Implementation for REDD and FCPF Reference Case ??: Subna;onal - To implement - Policy discussion focusing Reference global case on global scale to date Case Subna;onal - How resolve relation Reference Case between global, national & project??
- 26. Brazil: Amazon Fund. Example of One Approach for a Historic Reference Scenario Using Annual + Default Data. Carbon density datalimited, so use conservative 100tC/ha as default.
- 27. Subnational Reference Case,Driven by Development Plans: Brazilian Amazon Baseline GHG emissions 2007-2050 Amazon Basin Business as Usual Deforestation Scenario = 2.6 million km2 deforested by 2050 Soares-Filho et al. 2006 Issues: ≅ 47 billions of - How find tons of Carbon project in ≅ 172.3 billions of national refer. tons of CO e 2 case? 225 tC/ha - Use project or large-scale Carbon Stock resolution & Saatchi et al., 2007 data? 0 tC/ha
- 28. SimAmazonia Model Results:Opportunity Cost of Land for Soy, Logging, Cattle (Soares-Filho et al. 2006) > US$ 13 per ton US$ 8-13 per ton US$ 3-8 per ton US$ 3-0 per ton deforested Paved road US$ 0 per ton Cerrado biome Unpaved road Custo de oportunidade
- 29. Expanding SimAmazonia Model to All of Brazil: Low Carbon CountryCase Study, World Bank et al. Source: Britaldo Soares Filho 772 units 772 Amazônia Caatinga Cerrado Pantanal Scenarios of carbon Mata Atlântica emissions from expanding crops Pampa for biofuels 1x1 km = 4500x4500 = 20 M cells
- 30. Evolving Mexico MRV: Combines 22,000‐plot forest inventory + high resoluJon remote sensing + naJonal ecological process model • Forest Inventory • Landsat • AVHRR • MODIS • SPOT
- 31. CCI Guyana Proposal: Transparent, NaJonally Sustainable, And InternaJonally Acceptable MRV System ReporJng: NaJonal Measurement System for Forest Carbon NaJonal Economic Development Data Strategy Models Outputs CollecJon Policy ReporJng Satellite Data Algorithms Emissions ReporJng NaJonal Accounts Ground Data Data Fusion Removals To meet internaJonal obligaJons under UNFCCC Climate Data Raster Mapping (Emissions EsJmates Environment and and ProjecJons) & Forest ClassificaJon Visuals to enter Carbon Markets SpaJal Analysis Land Management InformaJon Management PracJces
- 32. Budget: EsJmated Cost of REDD+, Early EsJmates (Sathaye, Andrasko et al., in press) Components of RED FCPF 2010 FCPF 2008 Eliasch Readiness Estimates in 9 Estimate Estimate: High National R-PPs (Average, in (in ‘000) (‘000) ‘000) REDD management and $3,530 $525 + 365 $2,000 consultations Develop REDD strategy $1,920 $450 $1,000 Environmental and social $1,440 $50 - impacts assessment of REDD strategy REDD implementation $1,200 $341 $1,500 framework Develop reference scenario $2,020 $ 516 $4,000 Design REDD MRV system $6,960 $1,008 - TOTAL (without annual MRV $17,260 $3,250 $8,500 costs) Source: TNC, 2010 (average of 9 submitted country Readiness Preparation Proposals, on www.forestcarbonpartners.org); FCPF, 2008; Eliasch, 2008 as summarized in FCPF, 2008.
- 33. REDD TargeJng & Modeling Task: Overlaying Dynamic Land Use, Benefits, & Governance Issues • REDDOpportunities Vary by Deforestation Threat Opportunity Cost (OC) of Land, & C Density Class, Carbon Density, and Threat of for East Kalimantan Deforestation (Gibbs and Brown, 2007) • Can we identify high priority interventions, with low barriers to implementation? • What are priority governance concerns with these targeted lands and REDD strategies? • What are the capacity building and investment needs? • What are the potential risks, environmental and social, and economic? Gibbs, H. and S. Brown. 2007. Geographical Distribution of Biomass Carbon in Tropical Southeast Asian Forests: A Database. ORNL/CDIAC.
- 34. How Can FCPF and REDD+ Contribute to Low Carbon Development Strategies? • Provide best pracJces for stakeholder consultaJon and parJcipaJon • Encourage cross‐sectoral naJonal REDD management structure. • Share early methods for reference scenario sekng for forest cover change over Jme: historic and future forecasJng • Share design for MRV (measurement, reporJng and verificaJon) of REDD+ within LCDS context; – Help encourage high‐quality, internaJonally consistent MRV – Help countries produce compliance‐grade REDD+ carbon assets. • Nest REDD+ within a broader vision of naJonal development, reached via consensus process – instead of carbon cowboy deals. • Provide global plamorm for experimentaJon, pilot methods development, and carbon finance pilots – leading to confidence in REDD+ over Jme.
- 35. Bonom‐line: Major new REDD+ ideas and pilots are emerging from the countries – not top‐down. FCPF provides a useful plamorm for sharing knowledge and experience FCPF example: • Brazil is sharing Amazon Fund experience with FCPF countries, inc. Indonesia & DRC. • Vietnam + Mekong Basin countries, and Congo Basin countries, exploring regional cooperaJon on reference scenarios + MRV. • Indonesia issued naJonal regulaJons managing REDD process, followed by DRC and others. 35
- 36. Summary: FCPF partnership experiment is demonstraJng the power of transparent sharing of experience – but needs acceleraJon Lesson: REDD countries are learning by doing and sharing. But need: • Technical assistance to build in‐ country capacity to plan and implement REDD+ acJviJes • Clearer internaJonal policy and methods guidance, to scale up REDD+ Readiness. 36
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