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![Thinking [Better] About
the Future:
A Hands-on Approach to Applying
Foresight
Andy Hines
IABC Houston
May 12, 2011](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/2-140319005908-phpapp01/75/2-1-2048.jpg)
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форсайт управление думая о будущем 2
The document outlines a hands-on approach to applying foresight in order to identify opportunities and threats, craft strategies, and understand emerging customer needs. It emphasizes the importance of knowing the audience, mapping the innovation landscape, setting time horizons, and scanning for relevant trends, while advocating for proactive response strategies to future uncertainties. Various methods for scanning, forecasting, and institutionalizing foresight practices are discussed, along with resources and literature for further exploration.
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форсайт управление думая о будущем 2
- 1. Thinking [Better] About theFuture: A Hands-on Approach to Applying Foresight Andy Hines IABC Houston May 12, 2011
- 2. Where I‟m ComingFrom
- 3. • Uncover newopportunities • Detect threats • Craft strategy • Guide policy • Understand emerging customer needs • Explore new offering, markets, products, or services Why Foresight?
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- 6. Framing: What AreWe Looking For? 1.1 Know your audience 1.2 Map the innovation landscape 1.3 Set your time horizon 1.4 Polling: Degree of “stretch” If you don’t know where you’re going, you may end up somewhere else – Yogi Berra
- 7. Fence-sitters Bridge Builders Laggards Don’tGet It Get It Ideologies True Believers Pragmatist 1.1 Know Your Audience
- 8. 1.2 Map theLandscape Knowledge Work Workers Work Tools Work Models Work Spaces
- 9. EXAMPLE: The TrendUniverse is a tool intended to stimulate individual and team thinking about trends influencing growth or other aspects of the business http://growth.intranet.dow.com/TrendsSection/TrendsHomePg.htm Contextual Trends Social Chemical House & Home Health Transportation Food Industry Biotech Infotech Leisure & Entertainment Materials Energy Market Trends Economic Political Demographic Environmental Technological the broad trends in the world at large that plant the seeds of longer-term business opportunities the trends that are manifested in markets that point to nearer-term business opportunities MORE TRENDS RESOURCES For more info on trends or how to use them in ideation contact
- 10. 1.3 Set YourTime Horizon Computer Chips = 18 months Cars = 3-5 years Oil Platforms = 30+ years What is your product cycle , or the industries you work with?
- 11. Degree of Stretch Degreeof “stretch” 1. SAFE Smaller Payoff Less Risk 3. PROVOCATIVE Bigger Payoff Higher Risk A competitor announces a bold move into an innovative new area. How is your organization likely to respond? Select where your organization falls on this continuum of less to more sophisticated responses 2. IN BETWEEN
- 12. In Sum….. Framing 1.1 Knowyour audience 1.2 Map the innovation landscape 1.3 Set your time horizon 1.4 Degree of “stretch?” Scanning 2.1 Look for changes “outside” 2.2 Talk to people 2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory 2.4 Capture the Insights 2.5 Create a trend inventory Forecasting 3.1 Cluster trends into drivers 3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build 3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces
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- 14. The Kyoto: "TheseZen-like slip-ons make me feel light on my feet and lighthearted. Great for peaceful walks to and from yoga sessions." Oprah 2. Scanning: Where Are “Interesting Things” Happening? 2.1 Look for changes “outside” 2.2 Talk to people 2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory 2.4 Capture insights 2.5 Create a trend inventory Breadth Plus Depth = Foresight with Insight -- Andy Hines
- 15. Issue Emergence: FindOpportunities Before “ They” Do Wildcard Emerging Framed Event Legislated LitigatedMuch Influence Little Effort Little Influence Much Effort
- 16. 2.1 Look forChanges “Outside” Industry Organization Political EnvironmentalTechnological Economic Social “Outside”
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- 18. Finding Scanning Hitson the Web • Search Engines, e.g. Google • Syndicated Content/Feeds, RSS, Feed Demon • Alerts, e.g., Google Alerts • Target specific sites, e.g., Population Reference Bureau • Bookmarking sites, e.g., Delicious, Magnolia • Specialized software/data mining, e.g., Porter’s Technology Opportunity Analysis • Databases, e.g., Lexis-Nexis • 3rd Party Services, e.g., Social Technologies
- 19. 2.2 Talk toPeople • If I could answer any question for you, what would it be? • If you looked back from 10 years hence, and told the triumph in the ____, what would it be? • If you looked back from 10 years hence, and told the failure in the ______ , what would it be? • What does the _______ need to forget? • What are one or two critical strategic decisions regarding the __________ on the horizon? • What are the top 2 or 3 trends driving the future of the ______? • What are the obstacles to progress in the ________? • What should I have asked that I didn’t? (at the end) Source: Global Business Network, Developing & Using Scenarios, www.gbn.com Good open-ended questions
- 20. 2.3 Explore UnfamiliarTerritory
- 21. Where do youget your best ideas? Where do you typically come up with your most creative ideas….wherever that might be? Discussion: Getting Ideas
- 22. 2.4 Capture theInsights A complicated form for students…. …a simpler one for time-pressed organizations Understanding of brain/mind, and how to manipulate them, is growing. Neuropharmaceuticals developingTechnology BRIEF DESCRIPTIONINDICATORSCATEGORY
- 23. 2.5 Create aTrend Inventory Knowledge Work Workers Work Tools Work Models Work Spaces Transparency Telepresence rooms like “being there” Reverse brain drain Gen Y wants to be in charge Co-working collectives “Hotelling” Core-contractor structure Crowdsourcing “Open innovation” Free agent nation Cloud-based tools Virtual communities growing
- 24. In Sum….. Framing 1.1 Knowyour audience 1.2 Map the innovation landscape 1.3 Set your time horizon 1.4 Degree of “stretch?” Scanning 2.1 Look for changes “outside” 2.2 Talk to people 2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory 2.4 Capture the Insights 2.5 Create a trend inventory Forecasting 3.1 Cluster trends into drivers 3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build 3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces
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- 26. Forecasting: Where Arethe Attractive Spaces? 3.1 Cluster trends into drivers 3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build opportunity spaces 3.2.1 Identify key uncertainties 3.2.2 Challenge assumptions 3.2.3 Look for potential discontinuities 3.2.4 Create scenarios 3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces The surprise-free future isn’t – Herman Kahn
- 27. The Cone ofPlausibility The Future is many, not one. Implications Past Source: Charles Taylor, Army War College Present Alternative Futures Alternative Futures Preferred Future
- 28. 3.1 Cluster Trendsinto Drivers
- 29. 3.2 Identify KeyUncertainties Snacking Granola Bars (Healthy) Donuts (Tasty) Personal MassUrban Transit Importance Uncertainty Settlement Patterns: Dense vs. Sprawl Environmental: Lip Service vs. Deep Green Vehicles: Electric vs. Gas Transit: Personal vs. Mass Future of Downtowns Hi Hi
- 30. 3.3 Challenge Assumptions OriginalAssumption: “This is the way the industry works.” Alternative Assumption “What if we…..” Libraries should be quiet What if we made libraries fun places where people eat, drink, and talk, as well as read and study?
- 31. 3.4 Look forPotential Discontinuities Dematerialization: From Pounds to Sense More and more of the value of products will come from the information content rather than the physical content. Selling by the pound makes less sense, if you can sell the sense! TREND IT1: More consumers and businesses are embracing e-commerce. TREND M1: Materials are becoming smarter. TREND EC12: Commoditization is happening faster and faster. TREND EC10: New economic measures will emerge to reflect socially desirable goals, such as environmental quality. TREND EC11: New models are emerging to explain the "new economy." TREND EN2: Products are being increasingly designed for re-use. TREND P5: "Global management" of global-scale issues is emerging. Hydrocarbon Cleaning Solvents c. 1930’s Perchloroethylene c. 1950’s Cleaning Services c. 2001 • flammable • dangerous • nonflammable • good vapor properties • neighborhood cleaners • Safetainer • recycle • provide expertise Trend to Value Added Interface Flooring Systems
- 32. Example: IBM GlobalInnovation Outlook Insights from academics, industry experts, and business leaders Define and research key trends in innovation on a global scale.
- 33. 3.5 Create Scenarios •A scenario is a product that describes some possible future state and/or that tells the story about how such a state might come about. – The former are referred to as end state (or even day in the life scenarios); the latter are chain of events scenarios (or future histories).
- 34. The Long BoomThe Soft Path Source: Hines; Innovaro (www.innovaro.com) 3.5 Create Scenarios In the Long Boom world… •25 years of prosperity, freedom, and a better environment •Current recession just a speed bump •Driven by five great waves of technology: •(1) PCs •(2) telecomm • (3) biotech • (4) nanotech •(5) alternative energy In the Soft Path world… •Enoughness: consumers rethink consumption and their lives in general •Recognition of limits •Sustainability a fact of life •Grassroots-driven change
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- 36. In Sum… Framing 1.1 Knowyour audience 1.2 Map the innovation landscape 1.3 Set your time horizon 1.4 Degree of “stretch?” Scanning 2.1 Look for changes “outside” 2.2 Talk to people 2.3 Explore unfamiliar territory 2.4 Capture the Insights 2.5 Create a trend inventory Forecasting 3.1 Cluster trends into drivers 3.2 Identify “insights” around which to build 3.3 Summarize the opportunity spaces
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- 38. 4. Visioning, Planning,& Acting 4.1 Implications via Futures Wheel 4.2 Actions via Start, Stop & Continue 4.3 Institutionalizing If you don’t know where you’re going, you may end up somewhere else – Yogi Berra
- 39. Future of Work 4.1 Implications via Futures Wheel Augmented Workers Need a policy Nearsourcing Strengthen Local ties Negotiatew/ multiple jurisdictions Training? Going beyond paycheck What fits w/ cultures What motivates workforce Revisit traditional practices Recruiting for int‟l experience Inter- generation conflict New pay practices? Success-base, % of profits Time-based Rethink hiring & firing Annual contracts? Project-based contracts Intelligence Lands Where? Integrating smartness Built-in smart infrastructure Plug & Play „Docking” Infrastructure Fairness Impossible Customization Explaining “special” treatment Need for Transparency
- 40. The Industry Yourorganization Challenge ___________ Implication _______ Alternative: Implications for Different Stakeholders Implication _______ Biz Idea Biz IdeaBiz Idea Biz Idea Implication _______ Implication _______
- 41. Start Stop Continue 4.2Planning Exercise: Start, Stop & Continue
- 42. 4.3 Institutionalize: Push,Pull, Build • Push: Spread the word to new potential clients – Site Visits, Intranet sites, Business TV, Podcasts, Webcasts, Newsletters, Brown- Bag lunches, Futures Rooms , Sample Ideation Workshops • Pull: “Deliver the goods” and create positive “word-of-mouth” – Success breeds success – Craft a one-pager to concisely describe how you do it – Set up appointments with other functions in need of filling their innovation pipeline • Build: Grow your support network – Cultivate communities-of-practice – Developing your own training course
- 43. Activity Benefits FRAMING (22%)1. Thinking more diverse open, balanced and non-biased (9%) 2. Focusing on the right questions and problems more clearly (7%) 3. Being aware of, and influencing, assumptions and mental models (6%) SCANNING (16%) 4. Understanding the context, in all its complexity, through establishing frameworks (5%) 5. Anticipating change and avoiding surprise (10%) FORECASTING (22%) 6. Producing more creative, broader, and deeper insights (16%) 7. Identifying a wider range of opportunities and options (5%) VISIONING (10%) 8. Prioritizing and making better and more robust decisions (10%) PLANNING (7%) 10. Constructing pathways from the present to the future that enable rehearsing for the future (7%) ACTING (23%) 10. Catalyzing action and change (7%) 11. Building alignment, commitment and confidence (14%) 12. Building a learning organization (2%) Benefits of Foresight
- 44. Recommended Books • Hines,Bishop, Thinking About the Future • Peter Schwartz, Art of the Long View • Glenn, Jerome and Gordon, Ted, Futures Research Methodology, edited by Jerome Glenn. Millennium Project, February 2003. (CD-ROM) • Coates, Mahaffie & Hines, 2025 • Wendel Bell, Foundations of FS (but only vol 1) • Ed Cornish, Futuring • Richard Slaughter, Knowledge Base of Futures Studies • Sohail Inayatullah, Questioning the Future • Alvin Toffler, Future Shock or The Third Wave • Harman, An Incomplete Guide to the Future or Global Mind Change • Bernard deJouvenel, Art of Conjecture • Petersen, John, Out of the Blue: Wild Cards and Other Big Future Surprises: How to Anticipate and Respond to Profound Change, The Arlington Institute,1997. • Kurzweil, Ray, The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology, Viking 2005. • Meadows et al, Limits to Growth: The Thirty Year Update • William Gibson, Neuromancer, Bruce Sterling, Heavy Weather, Vernor Vinge, Across Real Time
- 45. Contact Info Lecturer/Executive-in-Residence ahines@uh.edu 832 3675575 www.andyhinesight.com Andy Hines U of Houston Futures Studies