The document provides an overview of foresight and futures studies, which involves exploring possible futures rather than predicting the future. It outlines a 4-step process: 1) identifying trends, 2) exploring implications of trends, 3) translating implications into scenarios, and 4) discussing the scenarios. An example is provided of exploring the trend of competency-based education programs. Practical exercises are included for participants to identify trends, map implications, and develop scenarios to discuss.

1. DON SMITHMIER
INDUSTRY FORESIGHT
NORA GUERRERA
GOKART LABS

2. 2
AGENDA
1.WHAT IS FORESIGHT?
2.HOW & WHY TO USE IT
3.THE PROCESS
4.PRACTICE

3. 3
BACKGROUND
WE ARE LIVING IN A VUCA WORLD.
VOLATILE
UNCERTAIN
COMPLEX
AMBIGUOUS
It can be challenging, highly variable and terribly exciting.
If you’re ready.

4. 4
PLAN
REALITY

5. 5
Foresight or “futures study” is the exploration of possible
futures.
It is the idea that you can’t predict the future, but you can
explore the possibilities and be better prepared.
It’s about provocations and not conclusions, exploration
and not answers.
WHAT IS FORESIGHT?

6. 6
It frees up your thinking beyond the here and now.
It helps you distill information and noise into possible
actions.
It allows you to make strategic decisions beyond what you
can immediately see or based solely on history.
It helps you have better conversations about the future and
explore “what you ‘might’ need to do.”
WHY USE FORESIGHT

7. 7
TREND
EXPLORE THE
IMPLICATIONS
TRANSLATE IT INTO
SCENARIOS
1. Start with an idea,
a trend or an insight
relevant to your
organization (or
client).
3. Translate it to scenarios that
allow you to explore possible
futures.
DISCUSS
METHOD
4. Share the scenarios
as the start of a
discussion.
2. Build upon it, expand upon
it and explore the
implications.
TREND
WHAT MIGHT BE / DIVERGE NARROW AND TRANSLATE / CONVERGE

8. 8
• What are you seeing?
• What are you hearing?
• What do you know?
• What’s happening inside your industry?
• What’s happening outside your industry?
Select one trend to explore.
STEP 1: TRENDS
TREND

9. 9
TREND
1ST ORDER
IMPLICATIONS
STEP 2: EXPLORE THE IMPLICATIONS
2ND ORDER
IMPLICATIONS
3RD ORDER
IMPLICATIONS
Add implications as branches from the center.
• Start with first order or, obvious
implications, and then expand from there
into second and third order implications.
• Prompt yourself to think of political, social,
economic and technological implications
• Push boundaries, go beyond the obvious
and open your mind to what could be:
• If X is true…. then….
• And if that is true… then…
• And if that happened…. then….

10. 10
Trend:
Competency-Based
Education Programs
S = Social Implications
T = Technological Implications
E = Economic Implications
P = Political Implications
E: New metric on
evaluating
competency + value
of education
E: New accreditation /
evaluation
P: New policies
around gov’t funding
& support
S: School progress is not
age based, new social
dynamics in educational
institutions
S: Degree become more
accessible to all types of
“students” (socioeconomic,
all abilities, age ranges,
social status)
S: Redefining
what a
“student” is
T: Delivery of
education will change,
redefinition of “the
classroom,” where
education takes place
T: Accessibility to
education - location
P: Shifts in
Standardization /
Equality
E: Reevaluation
the cost of “an
education”
S / E: School will be
localized and variableP/S: Emergence of a
new, shared and global
education system
E: challenge to
companies that work
across countries
E: Devalue
American
education
S / E: Local
partnerships / new
opportunities
P: Reevaluation of
gov’t subsidies to
support education
S: Fairness in
establishing these
standards
School, classes, value
of class / learnings
P: Who determines
subjects?
E: What subjects are
needed / valued?
S: Access to
resources could be an
issue / equality
S / E: What happens
to teachers? The “job”
of a teacher?
S: Lose “social” and
other elements of the
experience of going
through school
S / E: Blur lines
between school and
work
E: New funding
model for education
S: Loss of
“community,”
“Curated social
community around
education”
P: Empower /
equalizing areas that
don’t currently have
access to education
S: Empower social
mobility on a global
scale
E: Negatively impact
global mobility
professionally
P: Rise of companies /
corps as “countries” /
creation of own
education systemS: Change who/where
an individual identifies
E: How do we “train”
“teachers”
E: Shared risk
S/P: Rise of new
“country”
EXAMPLE:

11. 11
Once your Implications Wheel has a fair
number of implications, step back and look at
which implications or branches are Probable,
Plausible or Preposterous. Tag the
implications that fit in each category:
• Probable - Based on what we know
today, is likely to happen.
• Plausible - based on what we know
today, this might happen.
• Preposterous - based on current
knowledge, this impossible, won’t
happen (but if it did…..)
IMPLICATIONS, CONT.
TREND

12. 12
Trend:
Competency-Based
Education Programs
E: New metric on
evaluating
competency + value
of education
E: New accreditation /
evaluation
P: New policies
around gov’t funding
& support
S: School progress is not
age based, new social
dynamics in educational
institutions
S: Degree become more
accessible to all types of
“students” (socioeconomic,
all abilities, age ranges,
social status)
S: Redefining
what a
“student” is
T: Delivery of
education will change,
redefinition of “the
classroom,” where
education takes place
T: Accessibility to
education - location
P: Shifts in
Standardization /
Equality
E: Reevaluation
the cost of “an
education”
S / E: School will be
localized and variableP/S: Emergence of a
new, shared and global
education system
E: challenge to
companies that work
across countries
E: Devalue
American
education
S / E: Local
partnerships / new
opportunities
P: Reevaluation of
gov’t subsidies to
support education
S: Fairness in
establishing these
standards
School, classes, value
of class / learnings
P: Who determines
subjects?
E: What subjects are
needed / valued?
S: Access to
resources could be an
issue / equality
S / E: What happens
to teachers? The “job”
of a teacher?
S: Lose “social” and
other elements of the
experience of going
through school
S / E: Blur lines
between school and
work
E: New funding
model for education
S: Loss of
“community,”
“Curated social
community around
education”
P: Empower /
equalizing areas that
don’t currently have
access to education
S: Empower social
mobility on a global
scale
E: Negatively impact
global mobility
professionally
P: Rise of companies /
corps as “countries” /
creation of own
education systemS: Change who/where
an individual identifies
E: How do we “train”
“teachers”
E: Shared risk
S/P: Rise of new
“country”
EXAMPLE:
• Probable - Likely
• Plausible - Could
• Preposterous - Crazy but….

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STEP 3: CREATE SCENARIOS
Create scenarios: absorbing, convincing stories that help you see and feel the future in a real
way. They should have engrossing plots, be easy to remember and easy to relate to. They
describe the world to come:
• Start with the user or “customer,” create a day-in-the-life or a recollection of a day telling an
overarching story.
• Create one scenario for each context:
- Probable - based on what we know today, this is likely to happen.
- Plausible - based on what we know today, this might happen.
- Preposterous - based on current knowledge, this impossible, won’t happen (but if it
did…..)

14. 14
____(User here)__________ starts his/her day by ____________________. This is because ____________________.
He/she then _________________________ because ______________________…….. They then
____________________ which is different / new because ____________________. Impacting ______(User
here)_______ is ____________________ which is important because ____________________ …….
BEST PRACTICES:
• Stay Focused – develop a scenario that allows you to
articulate futures in a way that’s relevant to you/your
organization.
• Don’t Let “Group Think” Take Over – work
independently and then share.
• Keep It Simple – Don’t lose track of the goal and turn
scenario writing into a creative writing project. Make
them long enough that they can paint the picture of
what it’s like to live in this scenario, but not so long that
it can’t be easily consumed and understood.
SCENARIOS:
STARTERS:

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EXAMPLES:
Trend: Competency Based Education Programs

16. 16
Once you have three scenarios, use them as the start of a discussion within teams or one-on-
one and at all levels of decision making with in a company.
Conversation starters:
• If this turns out to be true…… then we should…..
• What is the impact if this is true?
• What should we think about now, knowing any of these might happen?
• What decisions should we revisit more often based on the scenarios?
• What else should we be thinking about?
• How might we think about our business differently based on the scenarios?
• What kind of changes do we need to make now to lead to the outcomes we prefer?
• How might we avoid the futures we don’t want to see?
STEP 4: DISCUSS

17. 17
PRACTICE

18. 18
As a table, start by sharing some trends:
• What are you seeing?
• What are you hearing?
• What do you know?
• What’s happening in your industry?
• What’s happening outside your industry?
Select one trend to explore.
STEP 1: TRENDS
5-10 min
Practice
TREND

19. 19
TREND
1ST ORDER
IMPLICATIONS
STEP 2: EXPLORE THE IMPLICATIONS
As a table, add implications as branches from
the center.
• Start with first order, or obvious
implications, and then expand from there
into second and third order implications.
• Prompt yourself to think of political,
social, economic and technological
implications
• Push boundaries, go beyond the obvious,
open your mind to what could be:
• If X is true…. then….
• And if that is true… then…
• And if that happened…. then….
2ND ORDER
IMPLICATIONS
3RD ORDER
IMPLICATIONS
15 min
Practice

20. 20
Once your Implications Wheel has a fair
number of implications, identify which
implications or branches are Probable,
Plausible or Preposterous. Tag the
implications that fit in each category:
• Probable - Based on what we know
today, this is likely to happen.
• Plausible - based on what we know
today, this might happen.
• Preposterous - based on current
knowledge, this impossible, won’t
happen (but if it did…..)
IMPLICATIONS, CONT.
TREND
10 min
Practice

21. 21
SHARE
What trend did you explore?
What were some of your most interesting implications?

22. 22
Foresight or “futures study” is the
exploration of possible futures.
Explore the possibilities and be better prepared.
‘What if…’

23. THANK YOU