1. OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreed to cut oil production by 1.8 million barrels per day in an effort to boost falling oil prices. OPEC will cut around 1.2 million bpd, with the largest cuts from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait. Russia and other non-OPEC countries will cut around 0.6 million bpd, led by 0.3 million from Russia.
2. The agreement led to an initial spike in oil prices over 15% to $54/barrel. However, implementation risks remain from countries like Iraq and uncertainties around continued cooperation from Russia. Oil prices are expected to remain in a $50-60/
Special Report - Is the OPEC Agreement a Game Changer?Amir Khan
Contrary to expectations, OPEC managed to reach an agreement at the sidelines of the Global Energy Forum held in Algiers. But it's too early to say this will be turning for the oil market.
This document discusses trends in global commodity and financial markets in the first half of 2015. It notes that while commodity prices continued declining in early 2015, some saw slight rebounds in the second quarter. Oil prices rose from January lows as supply increased from Iran, Russia, and the US, while demand grew in Europe and China. However, excess supply remained high globally. The document predicts that competition for market share between OPEC and shale producers could further widen excess supply in the second half of 2015, putting downward pressure on prices. It also summarizes trends in other commodity markets like agriculture and metals.
- The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in November 2015 to its lowest ever point of 90, as the wholesale prices of Brent crude oil, UK gas, European coal, and Irish electricity all declined month-over-month.
- The document discusses how low oil prices are significantly impacting oil-exporting countries in the Gulf region, with Saudi Arabia still relying on oil for 85% of its budget despite efforts to diversify its economy.
- OPEC failed to agree on output limits at its December 2015 meeting, allowing oil production to remain high and adding to the global supply glut that is depressing prices.
1) The oil market is historically volatile due to inelastic supply and demand. When shocks occur from either side, large price changes are needed to restore equilibrium.
2) Global oil demand has steadily increased over time and is projected to continue growing, driven largely by developing nations like China and India. However, supply is also growing, led by US shale oil production, keeping prices low.
3) Saudi Arabia aims to regain control of OPEC by forcing compliance through low prices, though others argue it seeks to undermine competitors. Extended low prices could last until supply and demand rebalance.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q319EY
The theme for this quarter is consistency: in the significant trends impacting prices, at least. The forces that impacted oil prices in the second quarter were the same as those that have impacted prices quarter after quarter for the past several years. Surging North American production counterbalanced by OPEC+ production cuts has kept prices in a fairly narrow range. The market has become remarkably resilient. For some time now, long-dated oil futures have traded at a price very close to the market’s view of the break-even price of unconventional oil in North America.
111201 oil price forcast update decemberNordea Bank
High oil prices are expected to drive new production opportunities from unconventional sources like oil sands and shale oil. However, political unrest in major oil producing countries poses risks to necessary capacity expansions. The forecast calls for weaker oil prices in the first half of 2012 due to economic concerns in Europe, but prices are expected to strengthen in the second half of the year and through 2013 as demand increases. While new production sources are anticipated, instability in the Middle East could threaten investments needed to offset declines from mature fields.
Pakistan Oil & Gas - Valuations are Heavily Discounted, (AKD Bluetop Sep 02, ...Asad Siddiqui
The report summarizes that international oil prices are expected to remain in the range of $40-50/barrel in the medium term due to oversupply concerns from increased US production and potential increased supply from Iran if sanctions are lifted. OPEC production remains near historically high levels led by Saudi Arabia, which has maintained its production to preserve market share despite lower prices. The outlook for oil demand also remains weak from China, Europe and sluggish global growth.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook – Q2EY
The document provides an outlook on the global oil and gas markets for Q2 2018. Some key points:
1) In Q1 2018, oil markets reached a sustainable equilibrium as demand grew steadily while production was predictable and pricing was in producers' control. Geopolitical risks could impact prices but no foreseeable developments were significant enough to move markets substantially.
2) The theme for Q2 is sustainability - whether geopolitical risks will drive higher prices or markets will remain stable. OPEC production cuts, shale growth, and trade wars could impact demand.
3) Most forecasts predict continued growth of 1 million barrels per day from North American shale as producers face pressure to return capital to investors, constraining
Special Report - Is the OPEC Agreement a Game Changer?Amir Khan
Contrary to expectations, OPEC managed to reach an agreement at the sidelines of the Global Energy Forum held in Algiers. But it's too early to say this will be turning for the oil market.
This document discusses trends in global commodity and financial markets in the first half of 2015. It notes that while commodity prices continued declining in early 2015, some saw slight rebounds in the second quarter. Oil prices rose from January lows as supply increased from Iran, Russia, and the US, while demand grew in Europe and China. However, excess supply remained high globally. The document predicts that competition for market share between OPEC and shale producers could further widen excess supply in the second half of 2015, putting downward pressure on prices. It also summarizes trends in other commodity markets like agriculture and metals.
- The Bord Gáis Energy Index fell 5% in November 2015 to its lowest ever point of 90, as the wholesale prices of Brent crude oil, UK gas, European coal, and Irish electricity all declined month-over-month.
- The document discusses how low oil prices are significantly impacting oil-exporting countries in the Gulf region, with Saudi Arabia still relying on oil for 85% of its budget despite efforts to diversify its economy.
- OPEC failed to agree on output limits at its December 2015 meeting, allowing oil production to remain high and adding to the global supply glut that is depressing prices.
1) The oil market is historically volatile due to inelastic supply and demand. When shocks occur from either side, large price changes are needed to restore equilibrium.
2) Global oil demand has steadily increased over time and is projected to continue growing, driven largely by developing nations like China and India. However, supply is also growing, led by US shale oil production, keeping prices low.
3) Saudi Arabia aims to regain control of OPEC by forcing compliance through low prices, though others argue it seeks to undermine competitors. Extended low prices could last until supply and demand rebalance.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q319EY
The theme for this quarter is consistency: in the significant trends impacting prices, at least. The forces that impacted oil prices in the second quarter were the same as those that have impacted prices quarter after quarter for the past several years. Surging North American production counterbalanced by OPEC+ production cuts has kept prices in a fairly narrow range. The market has become remarkably resilient. For some time now, long-dated oil futures have traded at a price very close to the market’s view of the break-even price of unconventional oil in North America.
111201 oil price forcast update decemberNordea Bank
High oil prices are expected to drive new production opportunities from unconventional sources like oil sands and shale oil. However, political unrest in major oil producing countries poses risks to necessary capacity expansions. The forecast calls for weaker oil prices in the first half of 2012 due to economic concerns in Europe, but prices are expected to strengthen in the second half of the year and through 2013 as demand increases. While new production sources are anticipated, instability in the Middle East could threaten investments needed to offset declines from mature fields.
Pakistan Oil & Gas - Valuations are Heavily Discounted, (AKD Bluetop Sep 02, ...Asad Siddiqui
The report summarizes that international oil prices are expected to remain in the range of $40-50/barrel in the medium term due to oversupply concerns from increased US production and potential increased supply from Iran if sanctions are lifted. OPEC production remains near historically high levels led by Saudi Arabia, which has maintained its production to preserve market share despite lower prices. The outlook for oil demand also remains weak from China, Europe and sluggish global growth.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook – Q2EY
The document provides an outlook on the global oil and gas markets for Q2 2018. Some key points:
1) In Q1 2018, oil markets reached a sustainable equilibrium as demand grew steadily while production was predictable and pricing was in producers' control. Geopolitical risks could impact prices but no foreseeable developments were significant enough to move markets substantially.
2) The theme for Q2 is sustainability - whether geopolitical risks will drive higher prices or markets will remain stable. OPEC production cuts, shale growth, and trade wars could impact demand.
3) Most forecasts predict continued growth of 1 million barrels per day from North American shale as producers face pressure to return capital to investors, constraining
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 | April 2022EY
The theme for this quarter is rearrangement. The loss, or potential loss, of Russian oil and gas supplies is forcing producers, refiners and traders to rethink the flow of crude oil and refined products from the wellhead to the gas pump in light of sanctions, potential sanctions and the risk of reputational damage. Countries, companies and consumers will all be searching for ways to adapt, and the outcome of the race to bring alternatives to market could alter the global energy landscape for years to come.
It is likely crude oil and LNG prices will remain elevated for some time. The process of diverting Russian oil through countries unwilling to sanction it will take time and there is little indication OPEC members are willing (or able) to increase production to make up for the loss of Russian crude. Spare capacity sat at 3.7 mbpd at the end of 2021, just above where it was in January 2020. Currently, sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian production (about 3 mbpd below their peak) could fill the gap, but political and commercial obstacles remain. At today’s prices, US shale production is attractive, but the fastest the industry has been able to grow is between 1mbpd and 2mbpd per year. The LNG infrastructure was already stretched before the war in Ukraine and there is little prosect of finding new supplies soon.
As the largest buyer of Russian energy, Europe will be the epicenter. There is a deeply embedded bias there in favor for renewable energy, and the current crisis is certain to result in an all-out effort to accelerate the build-out of wind and solar power. The capacity to add new green energy is limited though by the project pipeline and supply chains for solar panels and wind turbines, and it is likely that much of the shortfall will be made up with the new LNG infrastructure.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 April 2021EY
The theme for this quarter is governed. Apparent market balance at prices that could be sustainable is the product of calculated choices by market leaders and the cooperation of those who follow them. Economics played their customary role as well, with capital scarcity in North America taking about 2 million barrels per day out of the market, about half of the remaining gap in demand. While inventories are close to their pre-COVID-19 levels, there is still uncertainty. The resolution of the pandemic is in sight, but timing is unclear. Vaccine distribution in the US is having an impact but Europe is struggling to contain a third wave of infections. The taps have opened on economic stimulus, but it remains to be seen if policymakers have done enough or if they have overshot the mark.
The shape of the crude oil forward curve has fundamentally changed since the end of the last quarter. In late December of last year, the Brent forward curve was gradually increasing while today, the curve is backwardated. This is a clear sign that the market sees a short-term dynamic that is disconnected from the medium-to-long-term fundamentals. The lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic remains to be seen. While many have opined that COVID-19 marks a turning point in energy transition, the IEA recently released a five-year forecast of oil demand that shows steady growth, albeit at rates that are below historical expectations.
Gas markets are a paradox. At the Henry Hub and at LNG destinations, demand grows, investment lags and prices will occasionally attract attention. Traders, so far though, are unconvinced and futures prices don’t indicate imminent scarcity at any link in the value chain.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2, April 2020EY
The first quarter of this year has seen some extraordinary events. As if chronic oversupply, prices stuck below sustainable levels, the looming energy transition, and investor pressure to decarbonize weren’t enough, our industry now faces a dramatic, but hopefully temporary, downturn in demand as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook (Q4, October 2020)EY
Oil and gas prices have recovered steadily from their lows and are relatively stable, but that stability is supported by the combination of purposeful withholding of production by oil-producing countries and economic stress on upstream independents. Oil prices closed the quarter roughly where they started it, while refining spreads were down slightly. LNG spreads were substantially higher at the end of Q3 than they were at the beginning of the quarter but are still roughly half of what is generally thought of as sustainable.
Going forward, the market will be looking closely at how the economy and demand respond to new developments with respect to a potential COVID-19 vaccine and the US election.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As we close the second quarter of 2020, in most of Europe and Asia, the first (and hopefully last) wave of the COVID-19 crisis appears to be abating. In the parts of the US where the virus hit early, the profile has largely matched Europe’s, while in other parts, the urge to reopen businesses has trumped the desire to contain the virus and uncertainty looms. In the developing world, the crisis has just begun, but without the economic headroom and resources necessary to contain it. As the crisis unfolded, the effect on oil and gas demand has been predictable but difficult to gauge precisely and therefore difficult to manage.
Oil prices have crept up steadily as production has been curtailed through coordinated action (OPEC+) and because of economic reality (unconventional oil in North America). That trend has been subject to momentary spasms when bad news hit the market. It would be understandable if traders were nervous, and it seems that they are. Although nowhere near where it was at the peak of the crisis, option implied volatility is still at historically high levels. Gas markets, without the benefit of coordination on the supply side, continue to deal with the market implications of storage at or near capacity. Interfuel competition in power generation has always provided something of a floor, but those lows have been, and will continue to be, tested.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
We enter 2021 on a note of cautious optimism for global health, the world economy, and the oil and gas markets. The first weeks of December brought approval in the US and the UK of the first of several COVID-19 vaccines. The speed with which vaccine development occurred is unprecedented, but certainly welcome. In the weeks following the early November announcement of 90+% effectiveness by the manufacturer of the first approved vaccine, the price of WTI crude oil increased by US$10/bbl to US$48/bbl, the highest level since early March. Sustainability hasn’t returned yet, and whatever time it takes to get the world to normal, it will take even longer for normalization within the oil and gas markets. Inventories remain at historically high levels and, optimistically, it will take until April before inventory returns to levels observed in the preceding five years. That’s an estimate, and there has obviously been some difficulty properly calibrating the expectations of how balance will return and how long it will take. In late November, OPEC met to adjust its output plans because of the anemic rebound in demand. In mid-December, the IEA lowered its demand forecast for 2021 due mostly to continued sluggishness in aviation fuel demand.
A mild winter has interrupted a recovery in North American natural gas prices after a run-up motivated by curtailed capital expenditures, upstream activity and production. After an initial meltdown, with cargo cancellations and dramatic price reversal, LNG markets have made a remarkable comeback, and the spread between Asia and Henry Hub has reached a level we haven’t seen in almost three years. It may be the case that interruption in FIDs has brought us to the cusp of a balance that can support reliable returns.
This was the outlook for 2016 as presented in Feb 2015 and 6 months down the line all the prognosis have been damn accurate. When it took the Nigerian Government over 7 months into the year to officially declare economic recession, this presentation had accurately done a forecast on the dire straits the Nigerian economy was in as at February 2016. If you are looking at catching an accurate glimpse what may still lie ahead in the last 4 months of the year 2016, this presentation will be your reliable guide.
Oil Prices, the shale, the plunge and outlookErol Metin
Oil prices plunged from 2014-2016 due to a perfect storm of oversupply, a strong US dollar, and weakened demand. Conditions have balanced out, leading analysts to forecast higher prices in 2017, with estimates around $50-60 per barrel. Shale oil production growth has slowed in the US, but new technologies allow for continued expansion. Lower investments mean conventional production may not keep up with demand, which could be filled by OPEC and support higher prices.
The theme for this quarter is inorganic. Although prices climbed in the fourth quarter as the balance of supply and demand tilted in favour of demand, OPEC + restraint was fundamental.
The market is conscious of downside pressures that loom. OPEC + has announced production cuts through to the end of the first quarter. Beyond the first quarter, there is a risk that OPEC + grows weary of supporting the market and reverts to a strategy of growing production, protecting market share and placing pressure on the economics of unconventional producers. Production growth in Brazil and Norway has the potential to consume a significant portion of demand growth expected in 2020. Whether, or the extent to which, US shale output growth continues despite escalating financial strain across the E&P sector will be key in determining whether OPEC + cuts will be sufficient to balance the market in 2020.
In the longer-term, focus remains on the energy mix of the future and its impact on the demand for petroleum products. A number of significant uncertainties remain, including electric vehicle (EV) penetration. EY’s ‘Fueling the Future’ analyzes the outlook under four distinct scenarios. The analysis shows that an inflection point in EV penetration is required by 2022 if the terms of the Paris Accord are to be met.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
- Oil futures have fallen to their lowest levels in 8 months, with Brent crude dipping below $100 per barrel for the first time since 2013, as global demand growth is slowing.
- Both OPEC and the IEA have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2014 and 2015 due to weaker economic growth.
- Many OPEC countries require higher oil prices than current levels to balance their budgets, and sustained low prices threaten needed investments in the oil sector, especially in the Middle East.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
The theme for this quarter is resilience. A 6% supply outage in September was unable to push Brent prices above US$70/bbl. Demand concerns, driven by slowing world economic growth and the need to decarbonize, quickly retook the stage despite output from Venezuela and Iran being hindered by political turmoil and international sanctions.
Technology enhancements are a significant contributor to the market’s sanguine attitude towards supply disruption. Operators are able to produce greater volumes, quicker, and at a lower cost. That trend can only continue.
LNG markets continue to mature as traders play an increasing role in directing cargoes and setting prices. The pipeline for LNG projects remains healthy as market participants aim to establish a position in a market that is seen as the best opportunity for growth in oil and gas.
The North American Crude Boom: Impacts on U.S. & PADD IV RefinersTmc2920
John Auers of Turner, Mason & Company presented on the impacts of increasing North American crude oil production on US and PADD IV refiners. Production is forecasted to significantly increase in the US and Canada through 2020. This will change the crude slate available, providing more light sweet crude from areas like the Bakken and heavier sour crude from Canada. This is expected to displace some imported crude and cause regional crude price imbalances. PADD IV in particular will see a growing crude surplus that refiners must find markets for through pipelines, rail, or exports. PADD IV refiners should continue to experience strong margins due to lower local crude costs and demand growth above the US average.
Petroleum Executive of the Year Keynote, by H.E. Khalid Al-FalihEnergy Intelligence
37th Oil & Money Conference
www.oilandmoney.com
For more information news@oilandmoney.net
Keynote by H.E. Khalid Al-Falih, Minister for Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Chairman of the Board of Directors - Saudi Aramco
Presentation - Populism & the Politics of Rage - the Case of the UK & US Amir Khan
This document summarizes the political events of Brexit and Trump's election, analyzing their implications. It discusses how Brexit initially caused economic uncertainty and currency volatility in the UK, but the near-term impact has been contained. While Trump's election surprised markets, reaction was muted. Long-term, both events could encourage populism in Europe and make the US more inward-looking. Brexit may also push the EU to further integrate in response.
This document provides a summary of seven themes to watch in global markets in 2017 according to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. The themes are: 1) tepid global growth expected to pick up slightly, 2) markets will remain influenced by policies and actions of US President Donald Trump, 3) commodity markets are expected to continue recovering from oversupply, 4) a shift from monetary to fiscal policy support, 5) emerging markets will face more scrutiny, 6) political uncertainties in Europe are expected to rise, and 7) banks are anticipated to perform well. The document outlines factors and risks underlying each theme.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 | April 2022EY
The theme for this quarter is rearrangement. The loss, or potential loss, of Russian oil and gas supplies is forcing producers, refiners and traders to rethink the flow of crude oil and refined products from the wellhead to the gas pump in light of sanctions, potential sanctions and the risk of reputational damage. Countries, companies and consumers will all be searching for ways to adapt, and the outcome of the race to bring alternatives to market could alter the global energy landscape for years to come.
It is likely crude oil and LNG prices will remain elevated for some time. The process of diverting Russian oil through countries unwilling to sanction it will take time and there is little indication OPEC members are willing (or able) to increase production to make up for the loss of Russian crude. Spare capacity sat at 3.7 mbpd at the end of 2021, just above where it was in January 2020. Currently, sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian production (about 3 mbpd below their peak) could fill the gap, but political and commercial obstacles remain. At today’s prices, US shale production is attractive, but the fastest the industry has been able to grow is between 1mbpd and 2mbpd per year. The LNG infrastructure was already stretched before the war in Ukraine and there is little prosect of finding new supplies soon.
As the largest buyer of Russian energy, Europe will be the epicenter. There is a deeply embedded bias there in favor for renewable energy, and the current crisis is certain to result in an all-out effort to accelerate the build-out of wind and solar power. The capacity to add new green energy is limited though by the project pipeline and supply chains for solar panels and wind turbines, and it is likely that much of the shortfall will be made up with the new LNG infrastructure.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 April 2021EY
The theme for this quarter is governed. Apparent market balance at prices that could be sustainable is the product of calculated choices by market leaders and the cooperation of those who follow them. Economics played their customary role as well, with capital scarcity in North America taking about 2 million barrels per day out of the market, about half of the remaining gap in demand. While inventories are close to their pre-COVID-19 levels, there is still uncertainty. The resolution of the pandemic is in sight, but timing is unclear. Vaccine distribution in the US is having an impact but Europe is struggling to contain a third wave of infections. The taps have opened on economic stimulus, but it remains to be seen if policymakers have done enough or if they have overshot the mark.
The shape of the crude oil forward curve has fundamentally changed since the end of the last quarter. In late December of last year, the Brent forward curve was gradually increasing while today, the curve is backwardated. This is a clear sign that the market sees a short-term dynamic that is disconnected from the medium-to-long-term fundamentals. The lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic remains to be seen. While many have opined that COVID-19 marks a turning point in energy transition, the IEA recently released a five-year forecast of oil demand that shows steady growth, albeit at rates that are below historical expectations.
Gas markets are a paradox. At the Henry Hub and at LNG destinations, demand grows, investment lags and prices will occasionally attract attention. Traders, so far though, are unconvinced and futures prices don’t indicate imminent scarcity at any link in the value chain.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2, April 2020EY
The first quarter of this year has seen some extraordinary events. As if chronic oversupply, prices stuck below sustainable levels, the looming energy transition, and investor pressure to decarbonize weren’t enough, our industry now faces a dramatic, but hopefully temporary, downturn in demand as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook (Q4, October 2020)EY
Oil and gas prices have recovered steadily from their lows and are relatively stable, but that stability is supported by the combination of purposeful withholding of production by oil-producing countries and economic stress on upstream independents. Oil prices closed the quarter roughly where they started it, while refining spreads were down slightly. LNG spreads were substantially higher at the end of Q3 than they were at the beginning of the quarter but are still roughly half of what is generally thought of as sustainable.
Going forward, the market will be looking closely at how the economy and demand respond to new developments with respect to a potential COVID-19 vaccine and the US election.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As we close the second quarter of 2020, in most of Europe and Asia, the first (and hopefully last) wave of the COVID-19 crisis appears to be abating. In the parts of the US where the virus hit early, the profile has largely matched Europe’s, while in other parts, the urge to reopen businesses has trumped the desire to contain the virus and uncertainty looms. In the developing world, the crisis has just begun, but without the economic headroom and resources necessary to contain it. As the crisis unfolded, the effect on oil and gas demand has been predictable but difficult to gauge precisely and therefore difficult to manage.
Oil prices have crept up steadily as production has been curtailed through coordinated action (OPEC+) and because of economic reality (unconventional oil in North America). That trend has been subject to momentary spasms when bad news hit the market. It would be understandable if traders were nervous, and it seems that they are. Although nowhere near where it was at the peak of the crisis, option implied volatility is still at historically high levels. Gas markets, without the benefit of coordination on the supply side, continue to deal with the market implications of storage at or near capacity. Interfuel competition in power generation has always provided something of a floor, but those lows have been, and will continue to be, tested.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
We enter 2021 on a note of cautious optimism for global health, the world economy, and the oil and gas markets. The first weeks of December brought approval in the US and the UK of the first of several COVID-19 vaccines. The speed with which vaccine development occurred is unprecedented, but certainly welcome. In the weeks following the early November announcement of 90+% effectiveness by the manufacturer of the first approved vaccine, the price of WTI crude oil increased by US$10/bbl to US$48/bbl, the highest level since early March. Sustainability hasn’t returned yet, and whatever time it takes to get the world to normal, it will take even longer for normalization within the oil and gas markets. Inventories remain at historically high levels and, optimistically, it will take until April before inventory returns to levels observed in the preceding five years. That’s an estimate, and there has obviously been some difficulty properly calibrating the expectations of how balance will return and how long it will take. In late November, OPEC met to adjust its output plans because of the anemic rebound in demand. In mid-December, the IEA lowered its demand forecast for 2021 due mostly to continued sluggishness in aviation fuel demand.
A mild winter has interrupted a recovery in North American natural gas prices after a run-up motivated by curtailed capital expenditures, upstream activity and production. After an initial meltdown, with cargo cancellations and dramatic price reversal, LNG markets have made a remarkable comeback, and the spread between Asia and Henry Hub has reached a level we haven’t seen in almost three years. It may be the case that interruption in FIDs has brought us to the cusp of a balance that can support reliable returns.
This was the outlook for 2016 as presented in Feb 2015 and 6 months down the line all the prognosis have been damn accurate. When it took the Nigerian Government over 7 months into the year to officially declare economic recession, this presentation had accurately done a forecast on the dire straits the Nigerian economy was in as at February 2016. If you are looking at catching an accurate glimpse what may still lie ahead in the last 4 months of the year 2016, this presentation will be your reliable guide.
Oil Prices, the shale, the plunge and outlookErol Metin
Oil prices plunged from 2014-2016 due to a perfect storm of oversupply, a strong US dollar, and weakened demand. Conditions have balanced out, leading analysts to forecast higher prices in 2017, with estimates around $50-60 per barrel. Shale oil production growth has slowed in the US, but new technologies allow for continued expansion. Lower investments mean conventional production may not keep up with demand, which could be filled by OPEC and support higher prices.
The theme for this quarter is inorganic. Although prices climbed in the fourth quarter as the balance of supply and demand tilted in favour of demand, OPEC + restraint was fundamental.
The market is conscious of downside pressures that loom. OPEC + has announced production cuts through to the end of the first quarter. Beyond the first quarter, there is a risk that OPEC + grows weary of supporting the market and reverts to a strategy of growing production, protecting market share and placing pressure on the economics of unconventional producers. Production growth in Brazil and Norway has the potential to consume a significant portion of demand growth expected in 2020. Whether, or the extent to which, US shale output growth continues despite escalating financial strain across the E&P sector will be key in determining whether OPEC + cuts will be sufficient to balance the market in 2020.
In the longer-term, focus remains on the energy mix of the future and its impact on the demand for petroleum products. A number of significant uncertainties remain, including electric vehicle (EV) penetration. EY’s ‘Fueling the Future’ analyzes the outlook under four distinct scenarios. The analysis shows that an inflection point in EV penetration is required by 2022 if the terms of the Paris Accord are to be met.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
- Oil futures have fallen to their lowest levels in 8 months, with Brent crude dipping below $100 per barrel for the first time since 2013, as global demand growth is slowing.
- Both OPEC and the IEA have lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2014 and 2015 due to weaker economic growth.
- Many OPEC countries require higher oil prices than current levels to balance their budgets, and sustained low prices threaten needed investments in the oil sector, especially in the Middle East.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
The theme for this quarter is resilience. A 6% supply outage in September was unable to push Brent prices above US$70/bbl. Demand concerns, driven by slowing world economic growth and the need to decarbonize, quickly retook the stage despite output from Venezuela and Iran being hindered by political turmoil and international sanctions.
Technology enhancements are a significant contributor to the market’s sanguine attitude towards supply disruption. Operators are able to produce greater volumes, quicker, and at a lower cost. That trend can only continue.
LNG markets continue to mature as traders play an increasing role in directing cargoes and setting prices. The pipeline for LNG projects remains healthy as market participants aim to establish a position in a market that is seen as the best opportunity for growth in oil and gas.
The North American Crude Boom: Impacts on U.S. & PADD IV RefinersTmc2920
John Auers of Turner, Mason & Company presented on the impacts of increasing North American crude oil production on US and PADD IV refiners. Production is forecasted to significantly increase in the US and Canada through 2020. This will change the crude slate available, providing more light sweet crude from areas like the Bakken and heavier sour crude from Canada. This is expected to displace some imported crude and cause regional crude price imbalances. PADD IV in particular will see a growing crude surplus that refiners must find markets for through pipelines, rail, or exports. PADD IV refiners should continue to experience strong margins due to lower local crude costs and demand growth above the US average.
Petroleum Executive of the Year Keynote, by H.E. Khalid Al-FalihEnergy Intelligence
37th Oil & Money Conference
www.oilandmoney.com
For more information news@oilandmoney.net
Keynote by H.E. Khalid Al-Falih, Minister for Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Chairman of the Board of Directors - Saudi Aramco
Presentation - Populism & the Politics of Rage - the Case of the UK & US Amir Khan
This document summarizes the political events of Brexit and Trump's election, analyzing their implications. It discusses how Brexit initially caused economic uncertainty and currency volatility in the UK, but the near-term impact has been contained. While Trump's election surprised markets, reaction was muted. Long-term, both events could encourage populism in Europe and make the US more inward-looking. Brexit may also push the EU to further integrate in response.
This document provides a summary of seven themes to watch in global markets in 2017 according to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. The themes are: 1) tepid global growth expected to pick up slightly, 2) markets will remain influenced by policies and actions of US President Donald Trump, 3) commodity markets are expected to continue recovering from oversupply, 4) a shift from monetary to fiscal policy support, 5) emerging markets will face more scrutiny, 6) political uncertainties in Europe are expected to rise, and 7) banks are anticipated to perform well. The document outlines factors and risks underlying each theme.
1. The global economy is expected to see tepid growth through 2017 as aging populations and structural slowdowns weigh on major economies. However, manufacturing and trade indicators point to a synchronized pickup in growth across countries.
2. Markets are likely to remain influenced by Donald Trump's policies, which could boost growth through fiscal stimulus but also raise inflation concerns. Risk assets may perform well while safe havens like Treasuries sell off. Commodity prices may rise further due to OPEC production cuts supporting oil.
3. Commodity markets overall are set to continue improving in 2017 as efforts to reduce excess supply bear fruit, exemplified by an OPEC agreement boosting oil prices above key technical levels
The document discusses the potential impacts of Brexit, which refers to the possibility that Britain will withdraw from the European Union. A referendum will be held on June 23rd for Britain to decide whether to remain or leave. If Britain chooses to leave, it could slow the world economy and have wide-ranging consequences politically, economically, and diplomatically for Britain, the EU, and other countries like India that have close trade ties. The financial markets may also see increased volatility depending on the outcome.
The document discusses Brexit and its potential impacts. It provides background on why Brexit occurred, focusing on issues around trade, regulation, immigration, political influence, and the EU budget. It then discusses potential repercussions for the UK economy, including impacts to trade, the EU budget, regulations, immigration, and political influence. Finally, it discusses potential impacts on India, including financial market volatility, foreign direct investment, ties to the Commonwealth, ties to the European Union, and predictions around commodity prices, British stocks, and London's status as a financial center.
The document discusses the potential effects of Brexit on UK financial markets. It analyzes three main points: 1) GBP volatility using the VOLC function, noting increased volatility around key Brexit events. 2) FTSE100 performance, which may decrease due to trade barriers but be supported by a weak GBP and low commodities prices, with overall increased volatility. 3) Hedging risks using functions like OMON, FRD, and FXFM to monitor options, FX forwards, and rate forecasts to mitigate instability in British stocks, currency, and other financial markets due to uncertainty surrounding Brexit.
Brexit the situation as of march 19th 2017Kitty Ussher
A summary of the political situation around Brexit, good for describing to international business audiences. Covers why the referendum result happened, and outlines what is likely to happen from now.
Brexit impact in global financial marketsAndi Belegu
The UK vote a month ago to leave the European Union will have across the board results for budgetary markets, making both open doors and issues. Brexit may increment worldwide money related soundness since heterogeneous monetary markets and financial frameworks increment budgetary dependability, gave the British administrative framework winds up being adequately not the same as the European framework.
The document discusses the impact of Brexit on the Indian economy. It begins with background on the European Union (EU), which aims to ensure free movement of goods, services, labor and capital within its 28 member countries. It then explains Brexit and the key reasons Britain wants to exit the EU, such as Europe's migration crisis and reduced British sovereignty. Finally, it outlines several ways Brexit could impact India, including effects on currency, markets, companies, migration, commodities, investment, trade ties with the EU, and visa requirements.
The British have shocked the financial, political and business establishments of the world by voting to leave (52%) the European Union in the referendum of 23 June 2016.
The document discusses the impact of Brexit on global markets. It notes that before the Brexit vote, polls predicted the UK would vote to remain in the EU. However, the UK voted to leave, causing initial high volatility and lack of liquidity in markets as traders reacted to the unexpected outcome. Long term, Brexit may lead to lower bond yields as investors seek safe havens, and analysts predict lower interest rates and more volatility ahead as markets continue to adjust to the implications of the UK's decision.
This presentation was a part of my MBA capstone project. The project was a comprehensive marketing plan for the M.J. Bowen Real Estate Development Program at Central Michigan University. The goal of the marketing plan was to assist the program in becoming a destination program for high school students.
This document discusses the potential impacts of Brexit on India and the global economy. It notes that if the UK exits the EU, Indian stocks would decline initially. India exports many goods to the UK, and UK-based companies invest heavily in India. So a Brexit could reduce UK-India trade and investment. Several large Indian companies like Tata Steel and Tata Motors that generate significant revenue from UK/Europe operations would likely be negatively affected. The document also suggests Brexit could increase global financial market volatility and reduce global economic growth by up to 5.6% over three years. However, if the UK remains in the EU, its economy is projected to grow faster.
Brexit or Bremain ? Evidence from bubble analysisMarco Bianchetti
We applied the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model to detect possible bubbles and crashes related to the Brexit/Bremain referendum scheduled for 23rd June 2016. Our implementation includes an enhanced model calibration using Genetic Algorithms. We selected a few historical financial series sensitive to the Brexit/Bremain scenario, representative of mutiple asset classes.
We found that equity and currency asset classes show no bubble signals, while rates, credit and real estate show super-exponential behaviour and instabilities typical of bubble regime. Out study suggests that, under the JLS model, equity and currency markets do not expect crashes or bursts following the referendum results, thus supporting a Bremain scenario. Instead, rates and credit markets consider the referendum a risky event, expecting either a Bremain scenario or a Brexit scenario edulcorated by central banks intervention. In the case of real estate, a crash is expected, but its relationship with the referendum results is questionable.
On June 23rd 2016 the UK voted in a referendum to leave the European Union. Prime Minister David Cameron resigned the morning after the vote and a few weeks later, Theresa May was elected leader of the Conservative Party and new Prime Minister
The process of Brexit has begun although the timing of the decision to invoke Article 50 of the EU treaty remains uncertain
Once Article 50 is invoked, there is a maximum period of two years before the UK finally leaves the EU. The terms of the UK’s new economic relationship with the EU also remain uncertain.
The document discusses the impacts of the UK leaving the European Union (EU). It begins by providing background on the EU, including its origins after WWII and current makeup. Brexit is then defined as Britain's potential withdrawal from the EU. Reasons for Brexit include interference from the EU and UK tax payments to the EU. Potential economic impacts identified include effects on UK jobs, small businesses, GDP, foreign investment, and economic regulation. The currency could also be affected with the pound falling versus other currencies. Trade may be impacted by reducing free access to EU markets and exclusion from EU trade deals. Society may also feel costs if import prices rise and average households lose estimated annual benefits of £3,000 from EU membership.
- Brexit could reduce UK GDP by between 2.7-7.7% by 2020 and up to 5.1% by 2030 according to OECD estimates, representing an economic cost of between £1500-5000 per household.
- The UK economy benefits substantially from EU membership and trade, with UK exports of goods and services to the EU representing over 10% of GDP. Leaving the EU could disrupt these trade and investment relationships.
- Immigration from the EU has increased in recent years and played an important role in UK employment and GDP growth, while EU immigrants contribute positively to public finances. Brexit could reduce these immigration flows with economic consequences.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
The theme for this quarter is reprieve. Crude prices rose steadily throughout 1Q19 as OPEC+ reigned in production to counteract the impact of North American production growth. What lies ahead is uncertain, but downward pressures loom over the marketplace.
1) The document analyzes the current state of commodities and credit markets, presenting an investment outlook and recommendations.
2) It examines factors like geopolitical tensions, oversupply of oil from shale production and other sources, weakening global demand from China, and tightening credit conditions as interest rates rise in the US.
3) The outlook is bearish for commodities and related assets in the short to medium term due to these conditions sustaining low prices, though opportunities may arise if stockpiles are drawn down and political conflicts are resolved.
- The document recommends buying Exxon Mobil stock, implying a 12-20% return, with a current market cap of $375.74B.
- Exxon has weathered business cycles through revenue generation and diversification across upstream, downstream, and chemical operations. Chemical operations grew substantially in Q1 2014, offsetting declines elsewhere.
- Exxon has allocated capital intelligently to projects with high returns, positioning it well for future growth in areas like Asia and a stabilizing crude oil market.
Between 2014-2015, crude oil prices fell more than 50% due to excess supply and uncertain demand. The US has increased shale oil production, reducing imports and maintaining high stock levels. China's economic slowdown has weakened oil demand. Saudi Arabia wants to maintain market share by keeping production high to weaken shale producers' profitability. Low prices are expected to continue into 2018 as supply remains high and demand growth slows. Energy companies must optimize operations to improve efficiency in this challenging market.
The document discusses the unlikelihood of OPEC's proposed oil freeze plan taking effect by the end of 2016. It notes that while OPEC members agreed in September to potentially curb oil production, there are several indications this plan will not be implemented. Key factors include inconsistencies between meetings, reluctance of some countries to participate, and the lack of agreed upon production quotas. Given OPEC's poor track record with past agreements and uncertain market and demand conditions, most analysts believe a binding deal in 2016 is unlikely and actual reductions may not occur until 2017 if at all.
Saudi Aramco and Sinopec have started test runs at their new 400,000 barrel per day Yanbu refinery in Saudi Arabia, which is scheduled to begin commercial exports in October or November. The startup of new refining capacity in Saudi Arabia adds to oversupply concerns and downward pressure on oil prices from increased competition in refined fuel markets. Asian refiners are struggling with weak margins due to disappointing demand growth and excess refined product supply from the Middle East. Saudi Aramco cut its October crude prices for Asian customers more than expected in response to weak Asian demand and falling price spreads between Brent and Dubai crude benchmarks. Global oil inventories have risen sharply in recent months as benchmark crude prices have fallen, indicating over
Financial Algorithms presents the energy trading scenario for the year 2016. In this presentation, after examining various fundamental factors in energy sector, FA forecasts the crude oil price, gasoline & natural gas price levels for the year 2016; in case of mean volatility levels and high volatility levels, both. FA also focuses on how to model price levels and volatility surfaces in low volatility and high volatility scenarios under forward & forward-forward models using various energy contracts and spreads i.e. crack spread. Various greek sensitivities including second order & third order greeks, which can be helpful in projecting the price & volatility levels, are also described. At the end, correlation factors, fundamental & technical both, are discussed. These correlation factors are exogenous in price forecasting, and new emerging trends which can affect the energy trading in a long run also been discussed.
This document discusses how OPEC and the G-77 coalition have undermined progress in international climate negotiations. Specifically:
1) OPEC seeks to maintain high oil prices and avoid emissions reductions that could lower prices, so it obstructs climate negotiations. However, high oil prices and climate change both hurt developing countries.
2) The G-77 sometimes tacitly supports OPEC's obstruction, despite having members with diverging interests, due to desires for unity and weaker negotiation capacity compared to OPEC.
3) OPEC's influence within the G-77 stems from its strong negotiation capabilities and shared interests with some G-77 members in maintaining oil revenues and prices. This comprom
- The Covid-19 outbreak and collapse of the OPEC+ alliance have created a perfect storm in the oil markets, with both a reduction in demand due to the economic slowdown and a coming oversupply as Saudi Arabia and Russia increase production.
- Oil prices have collapsed to around $36 per barrel and could fall further, pressuring the budgets of oil producing countries who need higher prices. This will weaken the economies of Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC members.
- The renewable energy sector may also see delays and slower growth as supply chains are disrupted and economic difficulties reduce investment and subsidies. Gas markets will remain oversupplied and depressed.
- The European Green Deal faces challenges
New base 04 december 2017 energy news issue 1108 by khaled al awadiKhaled Al Awadi
The document discusses OPEC extending its agreement to cut oil production until the end of 2018. Key points:
- OPEC and non-OPEC producers agreed to extend cuts of 1.8 million barrels per day until end of 2018.
- There will be a review of the agreement in June 2018 to consider market conditions and progress on rebalancing supply and demand.
- Saudi Arabia's energy minister will serve as OPEC summit president for 2018.
This report discusses the recent decline in oil prices and the battle between OPEC and the United States for control of the oil market. Oil prices fell from over $110 per barrel in 2014 to under $50 per barrel in early 2015 due to increased production from the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries. While lower prices benefited consumers and some economies, they hurt oil-producing countries. The U.S. has significantly increased oil production in recent years through fracking and other methods. As a result, OPEC is losing its dominance over the oil market and control over prices. The oversupply of oil from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers means prices are expected to remain low
1) OPEC's oil production rose slightly in July from June, with Libya seeing the largest increase while production fell in Iraq and Angola. However, unrest in countries like Libya, Iraq, and Angola continues to affect supply.
2) Within OPEC, the largest increase came from Libya where supply rose by 210,000 barrels per day but stability remains uncertain. Saudi Arabia and Nigeria also saw small increases while Iraq's supply fell.
3) Looking ahead, declining oil prices could significantly impact Russia's economy and undermine Putin's power since Russia relies heavily on oil exports, which account for 40% of its revenues. A sustained price drop below $100 could force Russia to focus more on propping
OPEC acts as a cartel by controlling the global supply of oil in order to influence prices. As a cartel, OPEC sets production quotas for its members with the goal of maintaining high oil prices. However, the incentive for individual members to cheat on quotas and increase production for higher profits challenges the stability of the cartel. While OPEC was able to significantly impact oil prices in the short-run when demand and supply are inelastic, the cartel has struggled to maintain high prices in the long-run as demand and supply of oil become more elastic. The rise of non-OPEC oil producers has also eroded OPEC's ability to single-handedly control global oil supply and
This document provides an initiating coverage report on Exxon Mobil Corp by The William C. Dunkelberg Owl Fund. It recommends buying Exxon stock with a target price of $88.07, noting that Exxon is currently trading at a discount to its historical valuation relative to competitor Chevron. The report analyzes Exxon's business segments, the integrated oil and gas industry environment of low oil prices and excess supply, and catalysts like expansions that are expected to drive future earnings growth.
The document summarizes a speech given by David Greer, CEO of Regal Petroleum, about challenges facing the oil and gas industry in the coming decade. It discusses how the 2008 financial crisis impacted both "Drillers" (E&P companies) and "Dealers" (bankers), forcing them to adjust business models. It also examines uncertainties around the economic recovery, future oil and gas demand and supply, and ensuring adequate skilled labor in the industry. The outlook for Drillers and Dealers remains uncertain as they must adapt to new challenges in seeking to meet global energy needs over the long term.
The document discusses global oil supply and demand dynamics that are contributing to low oil prices. On the supply side, US oil production has increased significantly due to improved shale extraction technologies. OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia continue to maintain high production levels of around 30 million barrels per day despite low prices. Global demand is also weak, with slower growth in major economies like China, Japan, India, and Germany. Low oil prices are negatively impacting US shale oil producers and forcing them to shut down rigs. However, oil refineries are benefiting from cheap crude and operating at high capacity levels. ExxonMobil is highlighted as a stock that may continue performing well since its refining business is helping to offset declines in
Greetings,
Attached FYI ( NewBase Special 22 October 2015 ) , from Hawk Energy Services Dubai . Daily energy news covering the MENA area and related worldwide energy news. In todays’ issue you will find news about:-
• OPEC Is About to Crush the U.S. Oil Boom
• Qatar: Siemens to supply Turbines to Umm Al Houl Power Plant
• UAE: plays critical role in innovating and diversifying energy sources,
• Nigeria to Split Long-Delayed Petroleum Bill to Speed Passage
• Oil prices move higher on weaker dollar, above three-week low
• OPEC Hosts Meeting With Oil Officials From Non-Member States – No cuts
• Climate pledges for COP21 slow energy sector emissions growth dramatically
• Low oil price impact: OFW remittances decline for first time in over a decade
we would appreciate your actions to send to all interested parties that you may wish. Also note that if you or your organization wish to include your own article or advert in our circulations, please send it to :-
khdmohd@hotmail.com or khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
Best Regards.
Khaled Al Awadi
Energy Consultant & NewBase Chairman - Senior Chief Editor
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME meme since 1995
Hawk Energy since 2010
Greetings,
Attached FYI ( NewBase Special 21 October 2015 ) , from Hawk Energy Services Dubai . Daily energy news covering the MENA area and related worldwide energy news. In todays’ issue you will find news about:-
• OPEC Is About to Crush the U.S. Oil Boom
• Qatar: Siemens to supply Turbines to Umm Al Houl Power Plant
• UAE: plays critical role in innovating and diversifying energy sources,
• Nigeria to Split Long-Delayed Petroleum Bill to Speed Passage
• Oil prices move higher on weaker dollar, above three-week low
• OPEC Hosts Meeting With Oil Officials From Non-Member States – No cuts
• Climate pledges for COP21 slow energy sector emissions growth dramatically
• Low oil price impact: OFW remittances decline for first time in over a decade
we would appreciate your actions to send to all interested parties that you may wish. Also note that if you or your organization wish to include your own article or advert in our circulations, please send it to :-
khdmohd@hotmail.com or khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
Best Regards.
Khaled Al Awadi
Energy Consultant & NewBase Chairman - Senior Chief Editor
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME meme since 1995
Hawk Energy since 2010
Similar to Special Report - Aferthoughts on the OPEC agreement (20)
The document discusses 6 global macroeconomic themes for 2021:
1) A vaccine-led economic recovery will be uneven across countries and sectors in the near-term.
2) Fiscal stimulus policies are expected to remain expansive in 2021, particularly in the US with proposed stimulus packages.
3) Continued coordination between fiscal and monetary policies will support growth.
4) Concerns around rising inflation and growing public debt loads may rise as the year progresses.
5) The MENA region's economic recovery will depend on improved global conditions and higher oil prices.
6) Overall global growth is projected to rebound to around 5% in 2021, led by China, but risks remain from new COVID variants.
- The global economy is expected to stabilize in 2020 after a difficult 2019, but a meaningful acceleration is unlikely as political tensions remain and central banks have limited policy tools. Growth will likely remain around 3%.
- Emerging markets will perform better than in 2019 due to easier financial conditions, but China's structural slowdown will be a drag on prospects.
- Central banks have depleted policy ammunition as rates are low, and further stimulus measures may have diminishing returns. This puts more focus on fiscal policy, but significant action is unlikely.
- The report discusses these themes and their implications for the MENA region, particularly around oil demand and prices.
- The global economy slowed in the first half of 2019 as manufacturing orders declined and trade growth weakened due to the US-China trade war.
- Despite these headwinds, global markets posted positive returns in the first half led by developed market equities. Both stocks and bonds rose together due to diverging views on future central bank actions.
- Key investment themes for the second half include ongoing central bank easing, uncertainty around the US-China trade war, potential for an earnings recession, and safe haven assets like gold continuing to benefit from rising global risks.
This document discusses the challenges facing the MENA region in adjusting to lower oil prices and a changing global economic environment. It outlines the macroeconomic context, including the impact of the oil price crash on oil exporters and importers. Other challenges covered are geopolitical tensions, a slowing global economy, and demographic trends. The document concludes by discussing priority reforms for the region, including fiscal reforms like subsidy cuts and tax increases, as well as structural reforms to improve competitiveness, such as enhancing the business environment and investing in human capital. It provides Saudi Arabia as a case study of a country implementing reforms.
China's Current Challenges – A Dummies GuideAmir Khan
China's economy has been slowing in recent years due to both cyclical and structural factors. Some of the key structural challenges include demographic changes as China ages, excessive debt accumulation, and diminishing returns from investment and catch-up growth. These challenges are of global concern given China's large role in the world economy. Policymakers are trying to stabilize growth through fiscal and monetary stimulus, but reforms to address underlying issues face limitations.
Germany – How Worrisome is the Country’s Recent Slowdown?*Amir Khan
Germany's economy has recently slowed down due to factors such as the slowdown in China, Brexit uncertainty negatively impacting German exports, and environmental regulations temporarily setting back the automotive industry. This has led to declining industrial orders and weaker business sentiment surveys. As a result, German GDP declined slightly in the third quarter of 2018 and was flat in the fourth quarter, avoiding an official recession. While growth rebounded in early 2019, the outlook remains uncertain, prompting the EU Commission to downgrade its growth forecasts for Germany and the Eurozone. Policy options to address the slowdown are limited given already low interest rates and political resistance to deficit spending in Germany.
Bahrain - Making Sense of the Country's Current WoesAmir Khan
Bahrain has faced mounting fiscal and economic strains due to its heavy reliance on oil revenues and falling oil prices. This has led to a widening fiscal deficit, rising public debt, and a currency devaluation. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE announced support for Bahrain's economic reforms to provide stability. However, downside risks remain while Bahrain waits for a formal bailout package estimated between $3.5-4 billion annually to address its deficits and inadequate foreign reserves. Any financial support is likely to come with policy conditions requiring fiscal austerity and structural economic reforms to accelerate Bahrain's return to capital markets and address its long-term challenges.
Bahrain - Making Sense of the Country's Current WoesAmir Khan
Bahrain has faced longstanding fiscal challenges that have intensified due to falling oil prices. This has led to rising debt levels and weakened confidence in the economy. While Bahrain could seek an IMF program or regional support, it will likely need to implement difficult reforms to cut spending and improve its business environment to restore market access. Political tensions also persist, but regional allies like Saudi Arabia are committed to Bahrain's stability.
1) Thanks to stimulus measures introduced after a failed coup attempt in 2016, Turkey's economy grew strongly in 2017 at over 6%. However, growth is expected to moderate to around 4% in 2018 as some stimulus expires and base effects diminish growth.
2) The Turkish authorities implemented fiscal stimulus like VAT cuts and established a large credit guarantee fund to encourage lending, which supported domestic demand and investment. However, most of the credit fund has now been used up.
3) While exports contributed positively to growth, this may be temporary due to factors like a weaker lira. High inflation and current account deficits continue, questioning the sustainability of credit-fuelled growth.
"Emerging Markets in the Aftermath of the Commodity Price Crash – Onwards & U...Amir Khan
This document discusses emerging markets in the aftermath of the commodity price crash. It notes that many emerging markets are major commodity producers and were significantly impacted by the collapse in commodity prices from 2014. This undermined the thesis of a commodity "supercycle". While emerging markets regained momentum in 2017, ongoing challenges include global policy normalization, uncertainty around continued commodity price rises, growing trade protectionism, China's economic rebalancing, and signs that the global economy may have peaked. The document uses Saudi Arabia as a case study, noting the country's dependence on oil and efforts to implement fiscal reforms and economic diversification under its Vision 2030 plan. In conclusion, while emerging market prospects overall remain favorable, the need for commodity-dependent nations to adopt
Euro Area & Global Economy - Getting its Mojo BackAmir Khan
1) The document provides an economic analysis and overview of the Euro Area and global economy by Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.
2) It finds that the global economy is gaining momentum, with synchronized growth across developed and emerging markets. Key political risks in Europe did not materialize.
3) The Euro Area economy appears to be strengthening, with surveys and data pointing to continued growth driven by domestic demand. However, inflation remains below targets.
The document analyzes recent economic developments in South Africa. It finds that the South African economy has been slowing and falling behind its emerging market peers in growth rates. Political tensions have also risen under President Jacob Zuma, which has weakened the ruling ANC party's popularity. The rand and bonds have underperformed while the stock market has performed better. South Africa faces challenges of high unemployment, deficits, and reliance on mining while also benefitting from its human capital and infrastructure compared to other African nations.
Special Report - Spain - Election AftermathAmir Khan
Growing political uncertainty and the fragmentation of the exiting political order among some of the developed countries of Europe appears to be here to stay. No more is this true than in the case of Spain where, in fact, there has been the absence of a functional government for almost a year now. Here's how we think the situation may ultimately play out in the country.
1) Germany has shifted from an economy reliant on net exports to one more dependent on domestic consumption in recent years. This is due to strong private household spending supported by factors like low unemployment, rising wages, and government spending on refugees.
2) However, this shift may not be sustainable long-term as unemployment could rise again and income growth may slow. Germany also still has a large current account surplus, indicating domestic investment needs to increase to balance savings.
3) For the shift to domestic demand to last, Germany needs active policies to encourage more business investment rather than savings to boost productivity and competitiveness as labor costs rise.
Btmu Economic Brief - Nigeria: Making Sense of the Naira's DevaluationAmir Khan
The Central Bank of Nigeria recently replaced its currency peg arrangement and allowed the Nigerian naira to float freely, resulting in the currency falling over 42% in its first week. While this devaluation was needed to address foreign exchange shortages caused by low oil prices and will boost Nigeria's long-term growth, it will be painful in the short-term by increasing inflation and import costs. The move also does not solve Nigeria's economic challenges, which still require reforms to tackle issues like corruption and security threats.
BONKMILLON Unleashes Its Bonkers Potential on Solana.pdfcoingabbar
Introducing BONKMILLON - The Most Bonkers Meme Coin Yet
Let's be real for a second – the world of meme coins can feel like a bit of a circus at times. Every other day, there's a new token promising to take you "to the moon" or offering some groundbreaking utility that'll change the game forever. But how many of them actually deliver on that hype?
STREETONOMICS: Exploring the Uncharted Territories of Informal Markets throug...sameer shah
Delve into the world of STREETONOMICS, where a team of 7 enthusiasts embarks on a journey to understand unorganized markets. By engaging with a coffee street vendor and crafting questionnaires, this project uncovers valuable insights into consumer behavior and market dynamics in informal settings."
Abhay Bhutada Leads Poonawalla Fincorp To Record Low NPA And Unprecedented Gr...Vighnesh Shashtri
Under the leadership of Abhay Bhutada, Poonawalla Fincorp has achieved record-low Non-Performing Assets (NPA) and witnessed unprecedented growth. Bhutada's strategic vision and effective management have significantly enhanced the company's financial health, showcasing a robust performance in the financial sector. This achievement underscores the company's resilience and ability to thrive in a competitive market, setting a new benchmark for operational excellence in the industry.
1. Elemental Economics - Introduction to mining.pdfNeal Brewster
After this first you should: Understand the nature of mining; have an awareness of the industry’s boundaries, corporate structure and size; appreciation the complex motivations and objectives of the industries’ various participants; know how mineral reserves are defined and estimated, and how they evolve over time.
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Vicinity Jobs’ data includes more than three million 2023 OJPs and thousands of skills. Most skills appear in less than 0.02% of job postings, so most postings rely on a small subset of commonly used terms, like teamwork.
Laura Adkins-Hackett, Economist, LMIC, and Sukriti Trehan, Data Scientist, LMIC, presented their research exploring trends in the skills listed in OJPs to develop a deeper understanding of in-demand skills. This research project uses pointwise mutual information and other methods to extract more information about common skills from the relationships between skills, occupations and regions.
Financial Assets: Debit vs Equity Securities.pptxWrito-Finance
financial assets represent claim for future benefit or cash. Financial assets are formed by establishing contracts between participants. These financial assets are used for collection of huge amounts of money for business purposes.
Two major Types: Debt Securities and Equity Securities.
Debt Securities are Also known as fixed-income securities or instruments. The type of assets is formed by establishing contracts between investor and issuer of the asset.
• The first type of Debit securities is BONDS. Bonds are issued by corporations and government (both local and national government).
• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
5 Tips for Creating Standard Financial ReportsEasyReports
Well-crafted financial reports serve as vital tools for decision-making and transparency within an organization. By following the undermentioned tips, you can create standardized financial reports that effectively communicate your company's financial health and performance to stakeholders.
Special Report - Aferthoughts on the OPEC agreement
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2. Special Report | December 20162
we view to be in the region of 3.8 to 4m b/d – the increase will probably take Iranian production
to the highest possible level without further investment.
Separately – but integral to this deal – is the involvement of non-OPEC countries, led by
Russia, who on 10 December agreed to formally cut their production by a combined 0.6m b/d.
Of this this figure, the largest cuts will be shouldered by Russia (0.3m b/d), followed by Mexico
(0.1m b/d) and Azerbaijan (0.04m b/d). Taken together, the proposed cuts by both OPEC and
non-OPEC countries amount to 1.8m b/d. While this on paper seems pretty impressive,
implementation risks remain high. Among the OPEC countries, this is especially the case in
Iraq, where the dire security and fiscal situation makes a meaningful cut rather difficult.
Moreover, Libya and Nigeria are exempt from the agreement as production in both countries is
recovering from security related issues. Libyan production increased to 0.5m b/d in October,
doubling since August, but still only a third of the pre-war level. Nigerian production increased
to 1.6m b/d which is still lower the 2014 level of 1.9m b/d.
…Which has solicited a euphoric response on the part of the markets
Notwithstanding the implementation risks outlined above, the markets have used the OPEC
accord as a rallying call. Indeed, in the initial three day period after the deal was struck, prices
rose to the tune of 15% to over US$54/b. While they dipped slightly thereafter, the subsequent
agreement with non-OPEC countries, served as another leg-up in oil prices. In fact, for a short
period oil prices breached US$57/b, though they have backed up somewhat since and appear
to be hovering around the US$55/b mark. Notwithstanding this, if key technical gauges, such
as the 200-day and 50-day moving averages are any guide, oil price from a momentum
perspective continue for the time being to hold their own (see Chart 2).
-0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2
S. Arabia
Iraq
UAE
Kuwait
Venezuela
Angola
Algeria
Qatar
Ecuador
Gabon
Iran
(Million, b/d)
Chart 1: Distribution of production cuts among
OPEC member states
(Source) OPEC, Press reports, BTMU Economic Research Office
3. Special Report | December 20163
Going forward, our sense is that the initial market enthusiasm about the OPEC deal will give
way to a greater focus on whether the proposed cuts are in fact achievable. With this in mind,
we are of the opinion that oil prices going forward are likely to struggle to rise much beyond
their current levels and, if anything, are likely to remain range-bound within a pricing band of
around US$50-60/b.
Our sense is that the short-term market response may have been overdone
While the U-turn performed by OPEC to try and put a floor under oil prices, has on the whole
been well received – especially in light of the austerity drive some oil producing countries,
including those in the GCC – have been undergoing recently, we do not necessarily see these
cuts as a game-changer in their present form.
For one thing, the proposed cuts still need to be enacted and, as we alluded to above, with
some OPEC countries exempt from the cartel’s production agreement, actual OPEC
production could still surprise on the upside going forward (see below). Additionally, the
agreement is also contingent on the cooperation of non-OPEC countries, such as Russia,
for which there are few, if any, historical precedents. While Russia’s commitment to
undertake production cuts to the tune 0.3m b/d seems to be pretty bold move, at least on
paper, we question the willingness of the country to see this through, especially in light of
its current fiscal predicament. A further point worth noting here is that new production
facilities are expected to come on stream in certain countries such as Brazil, Canada and
Kazakhstan. With regard to latter, a case in point is the Kashagan oil field, which started
production this October and, according to ENI, one of the developers of the field, could
through the course of next year ramp up production to around 0.4m b/d.
Second, the recent rally in oil prices owes much to investor/hedge fund positioning, which
since the start of this year has seen a rather dramatic unwinding/liquidation of net short
positions (see Chart 3), with the result that the subsequent rebound in prices has been
sharper than one would have expected on the basis of fundamentals alone. This view, in
our mind is also supported by the shape of the futures oil price curve which – while it
continues to slope upwards following the OPEC meeting – has flattened somewhat since
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Actual price
200-day MA
50-day MA
Chart 2: Oil prices continue to hover above key technical levels
(US$/barrel)
(Source) Macrobond, BTMU Economic Research Office
(Year)
4. Special Report | December 20164
the start of this year, suggesting that the market’s view of prices going forward has become
somewhat bearish, such that it no longer believes oil prices will breach the US$60/b as far
out as 2022 (see Chart 4). While this is by no means a perfect measure of future oil prices,
it serves to highlight that – in an environment where the ability of OPEC to deliver on these
cuts is not certain – markets are still cautious about the outlook for oil prices looking ahead.
Moreover, while it’s fair to say that the recent oil rally may bring some immediate relief to oil
producing countries, at current levels of around US$55/b or above, prices are still
meaningfully short of the level required for most OPEC countries to break even in terms of
their underlying budgetary and external current account positions (see Chart 5).
Third, while symbolically speaking the OPEC’s proposed cuts are significant, there are
other moving parts that also need to be considered. Foremost here is how US shale
producers – which over the past decade or so have upended the traditional workings of the
oil industry – will respond to any OPEC-induced oil price rises. Our sense is that in light of
the efficiency/operational improvements that the shale oil producers have undergone
recently to survive the oil price rout, they will be tempted to ramp up production if, on the
back of the OPEC cuts, prices continue to trend upwards from their current levels of around
US$55/b. Indeed, with the US rig count – and the associated rise in US oil production –
already seeing a noticeable pickup since hitting a low-point earlier this year (see Chart 6),
-10000
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
12 13 14 15 16
Net short position have
fallen >70% from their
high point ealier this year
(Source) Macrobond, BTMU Economic Research Office
(Year)
Chart 3: Net short positions continue to be unwound...
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Jan-16
Dec-16
(US$/b)
Chart 4: ...But the oil future curve has flattened
somewhat suggesting that the market takes a cautious
view towards future oil prices
(Source) Bloomberg, BTMU Economic Research Office
(Year)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Libya
Bahrain
Algeria
Oman
S.Arabia
Qatar
Iran
UAE
Iraq
Kuwait
Fiscal breakeven
External breakeven
(US$/barrel)
Chart 5: Fiscal & external breakeven positions of selected OPEC
countries in 2017
(Source) IMF, BTMU Economic Research Office
5. Special Report | December 20165
we expect this trend to continue to play out next year, especially if oil prices continue to
exhibit an upward bias going forward.
Finally, on the demand side, while the overall prospects of the global economy remain
rather lacklustre at, or around, the 3% per annum mark, there has been ongoing conjecture
in the financial press and media, more broadly, that the recent election of Donald Trump in
the US, with his focus on tax cuts and infrastructure spending, will help to spur US demand
for different commodity groups as a whole. We, however, take some issue with this on the
ground that, in the energy space, Trump will seek to promote US energy independence and,
as part of this process, he may be inclined to water down existing environmental
regulations and give tax inducement to US oil and gas firms to boost their current
production levels. The net result of all this, at least over time, could be a material pick-up in
US oil production, a development which, in turn, could help to offset any supply cutbacks on
the part of OPEC member states.
Taking stock/concluding thoughts
The OPEC agreement in our minds represents a welcome first step towards the long-awaited
rebalancing of the global oil market. Indeed, all other things being equal, even if there’s just
50% compliance to the agreed OPEC cuts, we still envision the overhang of excess supply –
which amounts to a figure approaching 0.5m b/d – to be cleared during the course of next year.
Despite this, the agreement, as presently constituted, is not a game changer for OPEC
member states as there are many other moving parts that also need to be taken into account.
Of particular note here is the fact a number of OPEC member states, notably Nigeria and Libya,
are exempt from the production agreement and if these countries were to increase their
combined oil production by some 0.6m b/d that would go some way towards undermining any
cutbacks which are carried out by other OPEC member states. Additionally, of the OPEC
countries that are formally subject to proposed production cuts, the position of Iraq and Iran is
also noteworthy. Iraq is currently slated to cut production by 0.2m b/d, but given its rather
precarious economic and security situation, we are doubtful whether it will actually be able to
make the cuts. Similarly, with Iran’s economy – notwithstanding the partial lifting of sanctions –
struggling to normalise, coupled with the fact that its government is engaged in various proxy
5
6
7
8
9
10
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Rig Count (left axis)
Crude production (m b/d, right axis)
Chart 6: US rig count vs. oil production
(Year)
(Source) Macrobond, BTMU Economic Research Office
6. Special Report | December 20166
wars in the Middle East, it will have little incentive to limit its oil output at the agreed level of
3.8m b/d and we suspect that the country will further strive to return to reach its pre-sanction
level of output, which peaked at around 4m b/d.
Outside the OPEC countries, despite the agreement with the likes of Russia, we suspect that
global oil production will continue to rise apace with new fields in countries such as Brazil,
Canada and Kazakhstan expected to come on-stream over the next 12 months. Over and
above this, with the latest rally in oil prices, we expect some shale plays that have been
mothballed during the oil price rout to re-enter market and this, coupled with the likelihood of
more energy friendly policies under a Trump administration, will likely see a step-up in US oil
production going forward.
A final point worth noting here is that while the announcement of the OPEC cuts has solicited a
positive market response, oil prices at today’s level are still well short of the US$75/b or so
mark which, on average, MENA based OPEC countries need to ultimately balance their
budgets. However, to reach such a level Saudi Arabia, as the de-facto leader of OPEC, would
need to consider cuts upwards of 1m b/d and to hold it down for a year or more. Indeed, that is
precisely what it would have done in the past in recognition of its role as the world’s “swing
producer”. That said, in today’s world, given the difficult economic and security backdrop that
the country faces, it unlikely to want to go down this road for fear of further losing market share
to its rivals.
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