The first quarter of this year has seen some extraordinary events. As if chronic oversupply, prices stuck below sustainable levels, the looming energy transition, and investor pressure to decarbonize weren’t enough, our industry now faces a dramatic, but hopefully temporary, downturn in demand as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 | April 2022EY
The theme for this quarter is rearrangement. The loss, or potential loss, of Russian oil and gas supplies is forcing producers, refiners and traders to rethink the flow of crude oil and refined products from the wellhead to the gas pump in light of sanctions, potential sanctions and the risk of reputational damage. Countries, companies and consumers will all be searching for ways to adapt, and the outcome of the race to bring alternatives to market could alter the global energy landscape for years to come.
It is likely crude oil and LNG prices will remain elevated for some time. The process of diverting Russian oil through countries unwilling to sanction it will take time and there is little indication OPEC members are willing (or able) to increase production to make up for the loss of Russian crude. Spare capacity sat at 3.7 mbpd at the end of 2021, just above where it was in January 2020. Currently, sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian production (about 3 mbpd below their peak) could fill the gap, but political and commercial obstacles remain. At today’s prices, US shale production is attractive, but the fastest the industry has been able to grow is between 1mbpd and 2mbpd per year. The LNG infrastructure was already stretched before the war in Ukraine and there is little prosect of finding new supplies soon.
As the largest buyer of Russian energy, Europe will be the epicenter. There is a deeply embedded bias there in favor for renewable energy, and the current crisis is certain to result in an all-out effort to accelerate the build-out of wind and solar power. The capacity to add new green energy is limited though by the project pipeline and supply chains for solar panels and wind turbines, and it is likely that much of the shortfall will be made up with the new LNG infrastructure.
MAPS2018 Keynote address on EY report: Life Sciences 4.0 – Securing value thr...EY
Summary: This keynote address presented by Pamela Spence, EY Global Life Sciences Leader (pspence2@uk.ey.com) at MAPS 2018 – the annual meeting for Medical Affairs Professional Society – discusses our latest life sciences report and the industry demands for a customer-focused, data driven approach to health care. We describe the accelerating pace of change as technological advances and the escalating expectations of payers, physicians and patient consumers are combining to disrupt the life sciences business model. Data and algorithms that maximize health outcomes based on individual needs and preferences are becoming the ultimate health care consumable. To create value now and in a future that we call Life Sciences 4.0, life sciences companies must build – or participate in – interoperable information systems that collect, combine and share data. For more on our report, Progressions 2018 – Life Sciences 4.0, please go to www.ey.com/progressions
The theme for this quarter is momentum meets uncertainty. The upward trend in crude oil, natural gas, LNG and refined product prices that began in Q1 continued into Q2. Crude oil markets began the quarter just below $100/bbl and have closed below that level on only two days since late April. As we begin Q3, there are increasing concerns about the health of the global economy and how that might affect oil and gas demand.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 April 2021EY
The theme for this quarter is governed. Apparent market balance at prices that could be sustainable is the product of calculated choices by market leaders and the cooperation of those who follow them. Economics played their customary role as well, with capital scarcity in North America taking about 2 million barrels per day out of the market, about half of the remaining gap in demand. While inventories are close to their pre-COVID-19 levels, there is still uncertainty. The resolution of the pandemic is in sight, but timing is unclear. Vaccine distribution in the US is having an impact but Europe is struggling to contain a third wave of infections. The taps have opened on economic stimulus, but it remains to be seen if policymakers have done enough or if they have overshot the mark.
The shape of the crude oil forward curve has fundamentally changed since the end of the last quarter. In late December of last year, the Brent forward curve was gradually increasing while today, the curve is backwardated. This is a clear sign that the market sees a short-term dynamic that is disconnected from the medium-to-long-term fundamentals. The lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic remains to be seen. While many have opined that COVID-19 marks a turning point in energy transition, the IEA recently released a five-year forecast of oil demand that shows steady growth, albeit at rates that are below historical expectations.
Gas markets are a paradox. At the Henry Hub and at LNG destinations, demand grows, investment lags and prices will occasionally attract attention. Traders, so far though, are unconvinced and futures prices don’t indicate imminent scarcity at any link in the value chain.
On June 21st, PwC’s Health Research Institute (HRI) released its annual Medical Cost Trend: Behind the Numbers 2017 report. PwC’s HRI anticipates a 6.5% growth rate for 2017—the same as was projected for 2016. The report identifies the key inflators and deflators as well as historical context to better understand the medical cost trend for 2017. Increases in the trend due to utilization of convenient care access points and an uptick in behavioral healthcare benefits for employees are being offset by more aggressive strategies by pharmacy benefit
A.T. Kearney 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into UncertaintyKearney
2017 could be a pivotal year for logistics. Demand patterns are shifting, technological advances are altering industry economics, and new competitors are challenging old business models. This year could bring significant moves that reshape individual sectors and even the industry as a whole. Major business combinations, large-scale shifts in distribution flows, deep capacity cuts, massive infrastructure investments–anything is possible. Here are the ten key takeaways from the 2017 State of Logistics report, as well as the four potential scenarios for the future of logistics.
China Exit or Co-Investment Opportunities for German PE InvestorsL.E.K. Consulting
L.E.K.'s Karin von Kienlin recently presented at BVK on a study conducted by L.E.K. Munich and Shanghai. They wished to:
- Understand developments in Chinese equity investments in both the domestic China / pan-Asian market and cross-border investments between China and Germany / Europe
- Identify trends in likely future investment behavior and its drivers
- Defining success factors both for Chinese and German investors / corporates as to how to benefit from the potential opportunities of cross-border investments and cooperation
Learn more in the presentation here.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 | April 2022EY
The theme for this quarter is rearrangement. The loss, or potential loss, of Russian oil and gas supplies is forcing producers, refiners and traders to rethink the flow of crude oil and refined products from the wellhead to the gas pump in light of sanctions, potential sanctions and the risk of reputational damage. Countries, companies and consumers will all be searching for ways to adapt, and the outcome of the race to bring alternatives to market could alter the global energy landscape for years to come.
It is likely crude oil and LNG prices will remain elevated for some time. The process of diverting Russian oil through countries unwilling to sanction it will take time and there is little indication OPEC members are willing (or able) to increase production to make up for the loss of Russian crude. Spare capacity sat at 3.7 mbpd at the end of 2021, just above where it was in January 2020. Currently, sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian production (about 3 mbpd below their peak) could fill the gap, but political and commercial obstacles remain. At today’s prices, US shale production is attractive, but the fastest the industry has been able to grow is between 1mbpd and 2mbpd per year. The LNG infrastructure was already stretched before the war in Ukraine and there is little prosect of finding new supplies soon.
As the largest buyer of Russian energy, Europe will be the epicenter. There is a deeply embedded bias there in favor for renewable energy, and the current crisis is certain to result in an all-out effort to accelerate the build-out of wind and solar power. The capacity to add new green energy is limited though by the project pipeline and supply chains for solar panels and wind turbines, and it is likely that much of the shortfall will be made up with the new LNG infrastructure.
MAPS2018 Keynote address on EY report: Life Sciences 4.0 – Securing value thr...EY
Summary: This keynote address presented by Pamela Spence, EY Global Life Sciences Leader (pspence2@uk.ey.com) at MAPS 2018 – the annual meeting for Medical Affairs Professional Society – discusses our latest life sciences report and the industry demands for a customer-focused, data driven approach to health care. We describe the accelerating pace of change as technological advances and the escalating expectations of payers, physicians and patient consumers are combining to disrupt the life sciences business model. Data and algorithms that maximize health outcomes based on individual needs and preferences are becoming the ultimate health care consumable. To create value now and in a future that we call Life Sciences 4.0, life sciences companies must build – or participate in – interoperable information systems that collect, combine and share data. For more on our report, Progressions 2018 – Life Sciences 4.0, please go to www.ey.com/progressions
The theme for this quarter is momentum meets uncertainty. The upward trend in crude oil, natural gas, LNG and refined product prices that began in Q1 continued into Q2. Crude oil markets began the quarter just below $100/bbl and have closed below that level on only two days since late April. As we begin Q3, there are increasing concerns about the health of the global economy and how that might affect oil and gas demand.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 April 2021EY
The theme for this quarter is governed. Apparent market balance at prices that could be sustainable is the product of calculated choices by market leaders and the cooperation of those who follow them. Economics played their customary role as well, with capital scarcity in North America taking about 2 million barrels per day out of the market, about half of the remaining gap in demand. While inventories are close to their pre-COVID-19 levels, there is still uncertainty. The resolution of the pandemic is in sight, but timing is unclear. Vaccine distribution in the US is having an impact but Europe is struggling to contain a third wave of infections. The taps have opened on economic stimulus, but it remains to be seen if policymakers have done enough or if they have overshot the mark.
The shape of the crude oil forward curve has fundamentally changed since the end of the last quarter. In late December of last year, the Brent forward curve was gradually increasing while today, the curve is backwardated. This is a clear sign that the market sees a short-term dynamic that is disconnected from the medium-to-long-term fundamentals. The lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic remains to be seen. While many have opined that COVID-19 marks a turning point in energy transition, the IEA recently released a five-year forecast of oil demand that shows steady growth, albeit at rates that are below historical expectations.
Gas markets are a paradox. At the Henry Hub and at LNG destinations, demand grows, investment lags and prices will occasionally attract attention. Traders, so far though, are unconvinced and futures prices don’t indicate imminent scarcity at any link in the value chain.
On June 21st, PwC’s Health Research Institute (HRI) released its annual Medical Cost Trend: Behind the Numbers 2017 report. PwC’s HRI anticipates a 6.5% growth rate for 2017—the same as was projected for 2016. The report identifies the key inflators and deflators as well as historical context to better understand the medical cost trend for 2017. Increases in the trend due to utilization of convenient care access points and an uptick in behavioral healthcare benefits for employees are being offset by more aggressive strategies by pharmacy benefit
A.T. Kearney 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into UncertaintyKearney
2017 could be a pivotal year for logistics. Demand patterns are shifting, technological advances are altering industry economics, and new competitors are challenging old business models. This year could bring significant moves that reshape individual sectors and even the industry as a whole. Major business combinations, large-scale shifts in distribution flows, deep capacity cuts, massive infrastructure investments–anything is possible. Here are the ten key takeaways from the 2017 State of Logistics report, as well as the four potential scenarios for the future of logistics.
China Exit or Co-Investment Opportunities for German PE InvestorsL.E.K. Consulting
L.E.K.'s Karin von Kienlin recently presented at BVK on a study conducted by L.E.K. Munich and Shanghai. They wished to:
- Understand developments in Chinese equity investments in both the domestic China / pan-Asian market and cross-border investments between China and Germany / Europe
- Identify trends in likely future investment behavior and its drivers
- Defining success factors both for Chinese and German investors / corporates as to how to benefit from the potential opportunities of cross-border investments and cooperation
Learn more in the presentation here.
L.E.K. Consulting recently surveyed more than 200 U.S. brand managers and packaging stakeholders at consumer packaged goods companies to understand their packaging needs and views on trends driving demand.
The survey focused on topics that include:
- Brand trends and their effect on packaging demand
- Shifts within packaging (e.g., new materials, packaging innovations)
- Perspectives on packaging demand (including forecast spend on packaging for their brands)
This Executive Insights analyzes key findings from this proprietary research
PwC’s new Golden Age Index – how well are countries harnessing the power of o...PwC
One of the key megatrends affecting the UK and most other developed countries is an ageing population. Harnessing the potential of older workers will therefore become an increasingly important source of competitive advantage for both nations and businesses.
To explore how the UK compares with other OECD economies in this regard, PwC has developed a new ‘Golden Age index’ comparing how well they are utilising workers aged 55 and over. The index includes relative employment, earnings and training rates for older workers for 34 OECD countries over the period since 2003.
Is your energy investment strategy built on the best evidence?
As the energy sector transforms, capital and investment plans must adapt too. Is it time to review your strategies in light of global utilities investment trends? Our latest Power transactions and trends report offers insight and evidence into the major themes and emerging trends driving global power and utilities M&A. Updated quarterly, the report delivers deep insights into each major region.
PwC’s Trends in People Analytics report highlights our recently published 2015 PwC Saratoga US benchmark data, as well as the implications for people analytics functions and key trends for consideration.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
Booz Allen Hamilton and Market Connections: C4ISR Survey ReportBooz Allen Hamilton
Booz Allen Hamilton partnered with government market research firm Market Connections, Inc. to conduct the survey of military decision-makers. The research examined the main features of Integrated C4ISR through Enterprise Integration: engineering, operations and acquisition. Two-thirds of respondents (65 percent) agree agile incremental delivery of modular systems with integrated capabilities can enable rapid insertion of new technologies.
Quarterly analyst themes of oil and gas earnings, Q1 2022EY
Financial questions continued to attract the most attention of the analyst community, with major focus on how companies will respond to the war in Ukraine, elevated commodity prices and improved cash flows. Strategic questions focused on how the changing geopolitical environment will affect capital allocation in the short and long term. Operationally, all eyes were on the capacity of companies to step up asset utilization and bring new projects to market quickly. Explore the latest EY quarterly analysts themes.
18th Annual Global CEO Survey - Technology industry key findingsPwC
Tech CEOs are optimistic about the global economy and both near term and future revenue growth. They view strategic alliances, including partnering with competitors, as a primary means to grow their businesses. We invite you to explore the analysis and contact us to discuss how we can help your business capitalise on the new - but challenging - opportunities for growth. Learn more http://pwc.to/1DaolqY
Website: http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-survey/2015/industry/technology.jhtml
The Fourth Annual Global Mobility Study [hyperlink] by L.E.K. Consulting, Vision Mobility and CuriosityCX highlights that there is a much greater uptake of ride-hailing and other new mobility options in India and China than in mature western economies. With relatively low levels of car ownership and less developed public transport systems in these Asian countries, new mobility use is now comparable with and set to overtake traditional transport for a segment of the population.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook (Q4, October 2020)EY
Oil and gas prices have recovered steadily from their lows and are relatively stable, but that stability is supported by the combination of purposeful withholding of production by oil-producing countries and economic stress on upstream independents. Oil prices closed the quarter roughly where they started it, while refining spreads were down slightly. LNG spreads were substantially higher at the end of Q3 than they were at the beginning of the quarter but are still roughly half of what is generally thought of as sustainable.
Going forward, the market will be looking closely at how the economy and demand respond to new developments with respect to a potential COVID-19 vaccine and the US election.
Summary: Even in a time of high biopharma valuations, adopting an activist mentality adds rigor to capital allocation and strategic decision-making, improving not just returns to shareholders but long-term value creation. Therefore, biopharma management teams and boards of directors should proactively assess the “fitness” of their capital allocation strategies and their alignment with operational performance goals by taking an outsider’s view of the business even when times are good — and before a material stumble provides a compelling reason for an outsider to act. For more on this topic, go to http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Industries/Life-Sciences/EY-vital-signs-how-fit-is-your-capital-allocation-strategy.
The FDA and industry: A recipe for collaborating in the New Health EconomyPwC
Pharmaceutical and life science companies and their chief regulator – the FDA – must find new ways to collaborate to meet 21st century demands.
Web Page: http://www.pwc.com/us/en/health-industries/health-research-institute/hri-pharma-life-sciences-fda.jhtml
Joining Forces: Interagency Collaboration and "Smart Power"Booz Allen Hamilton
Has U.S. defense, diplomacy and development adopted a “smart power” approach? In this follow-up to a 2010 report, the Government Business Council (GBC) evaluates progress towards increased interagency collaboration and how budget pressures may change foreign policy. Moderator is GBC's Associate Director of Research Erin Dian Dumbacher and Speakers include Booz Allen senior associate's Cheryl Steele and Jonathan Allen. Download the full report here: http://www.govexec.com/gbc/report/smart_power_2011/
Learn more about Smart Power: http://www.boozallen.com/smartpower
The Diversity Imperative: 14th Annual Australian Chief Executive StudyPwC's Strategy&
This report provides insight into the 2013 Australian Chief Executive Study findings, compares the results to the global market and identifies trends. Our analysis looks at trends relating to performance and tenure; reasons for CEO turnover; and the number of insider appointments versus outsider appointments.
Apache Hadoop Summit 2016: The Future of Apache Hadoop an Enterprise Architec...PwC
Hadoop Summit is an industry-leading Hadoop community event for business leaders and technology experts (such as architects, data scientists and Hadoop developers) to learn about the technologies and business drivers transforming data. PwC is helping organizations unlock their data possibilities to make data-driven decisions.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As we close the second quarter of 2020, in most of Europe and Asia, the first (and hopefully last) wave of the COVID-19 crisis appears to be abating. In the parts of the US where the virus hit early, the profile has largely matched Europe’s, while in other parts, the urge to reopen businesses has trumped the desire to contain the virus and uncertainty looms. In the developing world, the crisis has just begun, but without the economic headroom and resources necessary to contain it. As the crisis unfolded, the effect on oil and gas demand has been predictable but difficult to gauge precisely and therefore difficult to manage.
Oil prices have crept up steadily as production has been curtailed through coordinated action (OPEC+) and because of economic reality (unconventional oil in North America). That trend has been subject to momentary spasms when bad news hit the market. It would be understandable if traders were nervous, and it seems that they are. Although nowhere near where it was at the peak of the crisis, option implied volatility is still at historically high levels. Gas markets, without the benefit of coordination on the supply side, continue to deal with the market implications of storage at or near capacity. Interfuel competition in power generation has always provided something of a floor, but those lows have been, and will continue to be, tested.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
We enter 2021 on a note of cautious optimism for global health, the world economy, and the oil and gas markets. The first weeks of December brought approval in the US and the UK of the first of several COVID-19 vaccines. The speed with which vaccine development occurred is unprecedented, but certainly welcome. In the weeks following the early November announcement of 90+% effectiveness by the manufacturer of the first approved vaccine, the price of WTI crude oil increased by US$10/bbl to US$48/bbl, the highest level since early March. Sustainability hasn’t returned yet, and whatever time it takes to get the world to normal, it will take even longer for normalization within the oil and gas markets. Inventories remain at historically high levels and, optimistically, it will take until April before inventory returns to levels observed in the preceding five years. That’s an estimate, and there has obviously been some difficulty properly calibrating the expectations of how balance will return and how long it will take. In late November, OPEC met to adjust its output plans because of the anemic rebound in demand. In mid-December, the IEA lowered its demand forecast for 2021 due mostly to continued sluggishness in aviation fuel demand.
A mild winter has interrupted a recovery in North American natural gas prices after a run-up motivated by curtailed capital expenditures, upstream activity and production. After an initial meltdown, with cargo cancellations and dramatic price reversal, LNG markets have made a remarkable comeback, and the spread between Asia and Henry Hub has reached a level we haven’t seen in almost three years. It may be the case that interruption in FIDs has brought us to the cusp of a balance that can support reliable returns.
L.E.K. Consulting recently surveyed more than 200 U.S. brand managers and packaging stakeholders at consumer packaged goods companies to understand their packaging needs and views on trends driving demand.
The survey focused on topics that include:
- Brand trends and their effect on packaging demand
- Shifts within packaging (e.g., new materials, packaging innovations)
- Perspectives on packaging demand (including forecast spend on packaging for their brands)
This Executive Insights analyzes key findings from this proprietary research
PwC’s new Golden Age Index – how well are countries harnessing the power of o...PwC
One of the key megatrends affecting the UK and most other developed countries is an ageing population. Harnessing the potential of older workers will therefore become an increasingly important source of competitive advantage for both nations and businesses.
To explore how the UK compares with other OECD economies in this regard, PwC has developed a new ‘Golden Age index’ comparing how well they are utilising workers aged 55 and over. The index includes relative employment, earnings and training rates for older workers for 34 OECD countries over the period since 2003.
Is your energy investment strategy built on the best evidence?
As the energy sector transforms, capital and investment plans must adapt too. Is it time to review your strategies in light of global utilities investment trends? Our latest Power transactions and trends report offers insight and evidence into the major themes and emerging trends driving global power and utilities M&A. Updated quarterly, the report delivers deep insights into each major region.
PwC’s Trends in People Analytics report highlights our recently published 2015 PwC Saratoga US benchmark data, as well as the implications for people analytics functions and key trends for consideration.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
Booz Allen Hamilton and Market Connections: C4ISR Survey ReportBooz Allen Hamilton
Booz Allen Hamilton partnered with government market research firm Market Connections, Inc. to conduct the survey of military decision-makers. The research examined the main features of Integrated C4ISR through Enterprise Integration: engineering, operations and acquisition. Two-thirds of respondents (65 percent) agree agile incremental delivery of modular systems with integrated capabilities can enable rapid insertion of new technologies.
Quarterly analyst themes of oil and gas earnings, Q1 2022EY
Financial questions continued to attract the most attention of the analyst community, with major focus on how companies will respond to the war in Ukraine, elevated commodity prices and improved cash flows. Strategic questions focused on how the changing geopolitical environment will affect capital allocation in the short and long term. Operationally, all eyes were on the capacity of companies to step up asset utilization and bring new projects to market quickly. Explore the latest EY quarterly analysts themes.
18th Annual Global CEO Survey - Technology industry key findingsPwC
Tech CEOs are optimistic about the global economy and both near term and future revenue growth. They view strategic alliances, including partnering with competitors, as a primary means to grow their businesses. We invite you to explore the analysis and contact us to discuss how we can help your business capitalise on the new - but challenging - opportunities for growth. Learn more http://pwc.to/1DaolqY
Website: http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-survey/2015/industry/technology.jhtml
The Fourth Annual Global Mobility Study [hyperlink] by L.E.K. Consulting, Vision Mobility and CuriosityCX highlights that there is a much greater uptake of ride-hailing and other new mobility options in India and China than in mature western economies. With relatively low levels of car ownership and less developed public transport systems in these Asian countries, new mobility use is now comparable with and set to overtake traditional transport for a segment of the population.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook (Q4, October 2020)EY
Oil and gas prices have recovered steadily from their lows and are relatively stable, but that stability is supported by the combination of purposeful withholding of production by oil-producing countries and economic stress on upstream independents. Oil prices closed the quarter roughly where they started it, while refining spreads were down slightly. LNG spreads were substantially higher at the end of Q3 than they were at the beginning of the quarter but are still roughly half of what is generally thought of as sustainable.
Going forward, the market will be looking closely at how the economy and demand respond to new developments with respect to a potential COVID-19 vaccine and the US election.
Summary: Even in a time of high biopharma valuations, adopting an activist mentality adds rigor to capital allocation and strategic decision-making, improving not just returns to shareholders but long-term value creation. Therefore, biopharma management teams and boards of directors should proactively assess the “fitness” of their capital allocation strategies and their alignment with operational performance goals by taking an outsider’s view of the business even when times are good — and before a material stumble provides a compelling reason for an outsider to act. For more on this topic, go to http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Industries/Life-Sciences/EY-vital-signs-how-fit-is-your-capital-allocation-strategy.
The FDA and industry: A recipe for collaborating in the New Health EconomyPwC
Pharmaceutical and life science companies and their chief regulator – the FDA – must find new ways to collaborate to meet 21st century demands.
Web Page: http://www.pwc.com/us/en/health-industries/health-research-institute/hri-pharma-life-sciences-fda.jhtml
Joining Forces: Interagency Collaboration and "Smart Power"Booz Allen Hamilton
Has U.S. defense, diplomacy and development adopted a “smart power” approach? In this follow-up to a 2010 report, the Government Business Council (GBC) evaluates progress towards increased interagency collaboration and how budget pressures may change foreign policy. Moderator is GBC's Associate Director of Research Erin Dian Dumbacher and Speakers include Booz Allen senior associate's Cheryl Steele and Jonathan Allen. Download the full report here: http://www.govexec.com/gbc/report/smart_power_2011/
Learn more about Smart Power: http://www.boozallen.com/smartpower
The Diversity Imperative: 14th Annual Australian Chief Executive StudyPwC's Strategy&
This report provides insight into the 2013 Australian Chief Executive Study findings, compares the results to the global market and identifies trends. Our analysis looks at trends relating to performance and tenure; reasons for CEO turnover; and the number of insider appointments versus outsider appointments.
Apache Hadoop Summit 2016: The Future of Apache Hadoop an Enterprise Architec...PwC
Hadoop Summit is an industry-leading Hadoop community event for business leaders and technology experts (such as architects, data scientists and Hadoop developers) to learn about the technologies and business drivers transforming data. PwC is helping organizations unlock their data possibilities to make data-driven decisions.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As we close the second quarter of 2020, in most of Europe and Asia, the first (and hopefully last) wave of the COVID-19 crisis appears to be abating. In the parts of the US where the virus hit early, the profile has largely matched Europe’s, while in other parts, the urge to reopen businesses has trumped the desire to contain the virus and uncertainty looms. In the developing world, the crisis has just begun, but without the economic headroom and resources necessary to contain it. As the crisis unfolded, the effect on oil and gas demand has been predictable but difficult to gauge precisely and therefore difficult to manage.
Oil prices have crept up steadily as production has been curtailed through coordinated action (OPEC+) and because of economic reality (unconventional oil in North America). That trend has been subject to momentary spasms when bad news hit the market. It would be understandable if traders were nervous, and it seems that they are. Although nowhere near where it was at the peak of the crisis, option implied volatility is still at historically high levels. Gas markets, without the benefit of coordination on the supply side, continue to deal with the market implications of storage at or near capacity. Interfuel competition in power generation has always provided something of a floor, but those lows have been, and will continue to be, tested.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
We enter 2021 on a note of cautious optimism for global health, the world economy, and the oil and gas markets. The first weeks of December brought approval in the US and the UK of the first of several COVID-19 vaccines. The speed with which vaccine development occurred is unprecedented, but certainly welcome. In the weeks following the early November announcement of 90+% effectiveness by the manufacturer of the first approved vaccine, the price of WTI crude oil increased by US$10/bbl to US$48/bbl, the highest level since early March. Sustainability hasn’t returned yet, and whatever time it takes to get the world to normal, it will take even longer for normalization within the oil and gas markets. Inventories remain at historically high levels and, optimistically, it will take until April before inventory returns to levels observed in the preceding five years. That’s an estimate, and there has obviously been some difficulty properly calibrating the expectations of how balance will return and how long it will take. In late November, OPEC met to adjust its output plans because of the anemic rebound in demand. In mid-December, the IEA lowered its demand forecast for 2021 due mostly to continued sluggishness in aviation fuel demand.
A mild winter has interrupted a recovery in North American natural gas prices after a run-up motivated by curtailed capital expenditures, upstream activity and production. After an initial meltdown, with cargo cancellations and dramatic price reversal, LNG markets have made a remarkable comeback, and the spread between Asia and Henry Hub has reached a level we haven’t seen in almost three years. It may be the case that interruption in FIDs has brought us to the cusp of a balance that can support reliable returns.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q1 2020 | Region Focus: Eagle...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
The theme for this quarter is inorganic. Although prices climbed in the fourth quarter as the balance of supply and demand tilted in favour of demand, OPEC + restraint was fundamental.
The market is conscious of downside pressures that loom. OPEC + has announced production cuts through to the end of the first quarter. Beyond the first quarter, there is a risk that OPEC + grows weary of supporting the market and reverts to a strategy of growing production, protecting market share and placing pressure on the economics of unconventional producers. Production growth in Brazil and Norway has the potential to consume a significant portion of demand growth expected in 2020. Whether, or the extent to which, US shale output growth continues despite escalating financial strain across the E&P sector will be key in determining whether OPEC + cuts will be sufficient to balance the market in 2020.
In the longer-term, focus remains on the energy mix of the future and its impact on the demand for petroleum products. A number of significant uncertainties remain, including electric vehicle (EV) penetration. EY’s ‘Fueling the Future’ analyzes the outlook under four distinct scenarios. The analysis shows that an inflection point in EV penetration is required by 2022 if the terms of the Paris Accord are to be met.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
The theme for this quarter is reprieve. Crude prices rose steadily throughout 1Q19 as OPEC+ reigned in production to counteract the impact of North American production growth. What lies ahead is uncertain, but downward pressures loom over the marketplace.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q319EY
The theme for this quarter is consistency: in the significant trends impacting prices, at least. The forces that impacted oil prices in the second quarter were the same as those that have impacted prices quarter after quarter for the past several years. Surging North American production counterbalanced by OPEC+ production cuts has kept prices in a fairly narrow range. The market has become remarkably resilient. For some time now, long-dated oil futures have traded at a price very close to the market’s view of the break-even price of unconventional oil in North America.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
The theme for this quarter is resilience. A 6% supply outage in September was unable to push Brent prices above US$70/bbl. Demand concerns, driven by slowing world economic growth and the need to decarbonize, quickly retook the stage despite output from Venezuela and Iran being hindered by political turmoil and international sanctions.
Technology enhancements are a significant contributor to the market’s sanguine attitude towards supply disruption. Operators are able to produce greater volumes, quicker, and at a lower cost. That trend can only continue.
LNG markets continue to mature as traders play an increasing role in directing cargoes and setting prices. The pipeline for LNG projects remains healthy as market participants aim to establish a position in a market that is seen as the best opportunity for growth in oil and gas.
EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlook Q4 2018EY
A range of upside forces have shifted market sentiment and some parties are talking of $90, or even $100/bbl oil in the short to medium term. Our insights on the outlook for the global oil price in Q4 2018.
Special Report - Is the OPEC Agreement a Game Changer?Amir Khan
Contrary to expectations, OPEC managed to reach an agreement at the sidelines of the Global Energy Forum held in Algiers. But it's too early to say this will be turning for the oil market.
The theme for this quarter is apprehension. In September, the US Federal Reserve announced a third 75 basis point increase in the federal funds rate. In the aftermath, the two-year treasury rate reached the highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis and the spread between two and ten-year rates went below negative 50basis points for the first time since the early eighties. Equity markets have begun to price in the likelihood of a recession and, if history is any indication, the impact on oil markets could be profound.
EY Price Point: Global Oil and Gas Market Outlook - Q3EY
The oil and gas sector is constantly changing. Increasingly uncertain energy policies, geopolitical complexities, cost management and climate change all present significant challenges. EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector supports a global network of more than 10,000 oil and gas professionals with extensive experience in providing assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services across the upstream, midstream, downstream and oil field sub-sectors.
Zahl der Gewinnwarnungen steigt auf RekordniveauEY
Immer mehr deutsche börsennotierte Unternehmen müssen ihre eigenen Umsatz- oder Gewinnprognosen nach unten korrigieren. Im ersten Quartal stieg die Zahl der Prognosekorrekturen auf ein neues Rekordniveau: Insgesamt 77 Gewinn- oder Umsatzwarnungen wurden registriert.
Die Corona-Krise trifft auch die Versicherungsbranche mit voller Wucht. Die Versicherer rechnen mit weniger Neugeschäft. Jeder Fünfte mit Personalabbau und Prämienerhöhungen.
Liquidity for advanced manufacturing and automotive sectors in the face of Co...EY
With a global economy in crisis due to Covid-19 our liquidity and cash management deck for advanced manufacturing and
mobility companies looks at how these companies should best respond.
IBOR transition: Opportunities and challenges for the asset management industryEY
EY Wealth & Asset Management explores the practical implications and the way forward for the transition to the new risk-free rates. This presentation aims to help asset managers and asset owners explore IBOR transition strategies that are compliant and future-focused.
Fusionen und Übernahmen dürften nach der Krise zunehmenEY
Folgt auf die Corona-Krise ein M&A-Boom? Laut Capital Confidence Barometer von #EY hoffen 40 Prozent der deutschen Unternehmen auf sinkende Bewertungen von Übernahmekandidaten.
Our Global Chemical Industry Leader Frank Jenner explores the trends and drivers that will shape the chemical industry of tomorrow in our latest Chemical Market Outlook.
Die Geschäftslage im Mittelstand hat sich leicht verschlechtert, ist in den meisten Branchen aber weiter überwiegend gut - die Einstellungsbereitschaft sinkt.
Deutschlands börsennotierte Unternehmen werden weiblicherEY
Der Frauenanteil in den Vorstandsetagen der DAX-, MDAX- und SDAX-Unternehmen ist seit Juli 2015 kontinuierlich von 5,0 auf jetzt 9,2 Prozent gestiegen.
Bezpieczne ulgi podatkowe 2019 r. to jedno z zagadnień omawianych przez Tomasza Sochę, Associate Partnera #EY_Polska podczas konferencji „Bezpieczny podatnik”. Odbyła się ona w ramach projektu edukacyjnego #BezpiecznyPodatnik, którego celem jest wsparcie przedsiębiorców w efektywnym funkcjonowaniu w polskim otoczeniu prawno-podatkowym. #ulgipodatkowe #podatki2020 #podatki
Kreditklemme in Sicht?
Deutsche Banken rechnen mit schlechter Konjunkturentwicklung und restriktiverer Kreditvergabe. Gebühren für Privatkunden sollen laut EY Bankenbarometer weiter steigen.
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
Key Features of USDA Loans:
Zero Down Payment: USDA loans require no down payment, making homeownership more accessible.
Competitive Interest Rates: These loans often come with lower interest rates compared to conventional loans.
Flexible Credit Requirements: USDA loans have more lenient credit score requirements, helping those with less-than-perfect credit.
Guaranteed Loan Program: The USDA guarantees a portion of the loan, reducing risk for lenders and expanding borrowing options.
Eligibility Criteria:
Location: The property must be located in a USDA-designated rural or suburban area. Many areas in California qualify.
Income Limits: Applicants must meet income guidelines, which vary by region and household size.
Primary Residence: The home must be used as the borrower's primary residence.
Application Process:
Find a USDA-Approved Lender: Not all lenders offer USDA loans, so it's essential to choose one approved by the USDA.
Pre-Qualification: Determine your eligibility and the amount you can borrow.
Property Search: Look for properties in eligible rural or suburban areas.
Loan Application: Submit your application, including financial and personal information.
Processing and Approval: The lender and USDA will review your application. If approved, you can proceed to closing.
USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
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What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
how to sell pi coins in all Africa Countries.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network for other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, usdt , Ethereum and other currencies And this is done easily with the help from a pi merchant.
What is a pi merchant ?
Since pi is not launched yet in any exchange. The only way you can sell right now is through merchants.
A verified Pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins from miners and resell them to investors looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2, April 2020
1. EY Price Point: global oil
and gas market outlook
Q2 | April 2020
2. Q2 overview
The first quarter of this year has seen some extraordinary events. As if chronic oversupply, prices stuck below
sustainable levels, the looming energy transition, and investor pressure to decarbonize weren’t enough, our
industry now faces a dramatic, but hopefully temporary, downturn in demand as a result of the ongoing COVID-
19 outbreak. The markets had hoped (or even expected) that OPEC+ would step up with production cuts to
offset demand disruptions, but an agreement hasn’t materialized and with the current price war there are
potential longer-term ramifications. For the past three years, the market dynamic has been a balance between
North American production growth and OPEC+ production discipline. If this episode signals a wavering of that
discipline, no one knows how it might play out.
Every segment of the industry has been touched and we have no idea how long this will last or how severe the
impact will be. Refining margins, which have given the oil majors refuge during past downturns have also
suffered. LNG cargos have been turned away with no alternative destination. There are plausible exit scenarios,
but each of them requires considerable time or rapid restoration of some version of the status quo ante.
Gary Donald
EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader
gdonald@uk.ey.com
Andy Brogan
EY Global Oil & Gas Leader
abrogan@uk.ey.com
Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 2
3. Q2 theme
The theme for this quarter is seismic. In the last three months, everything that we thought we understood
about supply, demand and the structure of oil and gas markets became (for the time being, at least) irrelevant.
The immediate and abrupt reduction in oil and gas demand following the outbreak of COVID-19 — and the
resulting shock to the economy — surfaced some long-standing issues that have made balance in petroleum
markets precarious at best. As the various forecasting agencies inched their demand forecasts downward, the
market looked to Saudi Arabia, Russia and the rest of OPEC+ to step up with temporary production cuts. When
that didn’t happen, there was very little stopping prices from dropping dramatically, as they did.
No one has a crystal ball that will tell us how this will play out. In the very near term, absent some supply
curtailment, prices will continue to be under pressure as storage capacity becomes scarce and it will get more
and more difficult to find a home for crude. In the intermediate term, there are a number of scenarios that
could play out. When the pandemic calms, demand may bounce back quickly and that will relieve some of the
downward stress. As that happens, and market balance at sustainable prices is within reach, it may be easier
for market movers, such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, to find an agreement that works for everyone. Absent
that, bringing supply and demand together will take time as non-OPEC production gradually comes down while
the recent dramatic reductions in capital spending echo through the system.
• When the COVID-19 pandemic ends, what will be the long-term damage to the
economy and demand for petroleum products?
• How long will it take for capital expenditure cuts to impact production and bring
the market into balance?
• How long will it take (if ever) for Russia and OPEC to restore the production
discipline that has kept the market stable for some time now?
?
Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 3
4. Q2 trends
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 4
OPEC+
production
discipline no
longer a
factor
For some time now, the market has leaned
on OPEC+ to balance the market by
producing less oil. The crash in demand
from COVID-19 left a gap too big to fill, and
the resulting conflict left existing
agreements in ruins. A free-for-all in
production and pricing has ensued.
Depressed
pricing may
have a more
immediate
production
impact
In previous downturns, capital markets
have enabled continued exploration and
production, particularly in North
America. There are early indications that
there will not be the same access to
capital and that diminished access to
capital will mean less oil sooner rather
than later.
LNG and
crude cargos
without a
home
Crude oil and LNG production can’t be shut
down quickly or without cost. In the very
near term, as demand has fallen
significantly, the world is running out of
places to put product that has no buyer. No
one knows how low prices will need to go to
balance supply and demand.
Product markets have never lost this
much demand so rapidly, even in
economic meltdowns such as the 2008
financial crisis. Previously, refining has
provided some level of stability to
investors in integrated companies.
Refinery margins have fallen
precipitously this time around as
refineries compete for the product
demand that remains.
Refining not a
refuge
Q2 | April 2020
5. Market fundamentals
Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 5
Source: US EIA
• Oil is about mobility and productivity. Those two things are interrelated
and neither has been or will be untouched by the COVID-19 outbreak.
Three out of every four barrels of crude oil are used in industry or for
transportation.
• Until the COVID-19 crisis, oil had traded in an exceptionally narrow range
for the past year. As the virus spread in China, prices steadily declined in
response to diminished demand and expectations of reduced worldwide
economic growth. When the pandemic paralyzed the movement of goods
and people, it became clear that demand growth was unachievable and
demand would likely contract for some time.
• For a while, the market expected, or hoped, that the major oil-producing
countries would (as they have for the past four years) provide market
balance. Not only did that not happen, but previous agreements to hold
back production collapsed, and with them oil prices.
OPEC production discipline disappears and prices crash
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
US$/bbl
Brent
WTI
• In the wake of the oil price earthquake, producers across the board have
announced many plans to conserve cash. Share buyback programs are
being curtailed and dividend cuts have already been unveiled and more are
certainly being considered, but the most immediate reaction to the crisis
has been cuts in capital expenditure plans.
• Absent a rapid recovery of demand or a new agreement among OPEC and
Russia to curtail production, the only path to market rebalancing is a
gradual erosion of production (or at least production growth) in the sources
of supply most dependent on capital investment.
• US shale, Canadian oil sands and deepwater resources are the most
obvious candidates. Recent history tells us, however, that the response
could be muted and lagged. In the wake of the 2014 downturn, production
declines were about a year behind capex cuts, and the size of the
production declines were no more than half the reduction in capex.
How quickly will North American production respond to capex cuts?
Source: Capital IQ and EY analysis
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19
Percentage change in BOE production (left axis)
Percentage change in capex (right axis)
6. Market fundamentals
Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 6
Unlike previous downturns, refining margins have been severely
impacted LNG cargos are searching for new homes
• Refiners were already facing tough market conditions with IMO2020 not
delivering the anticipated growth in product cracks. With the spread of
COVID-19 resulting in weaker demand for oil products, refiners are
forced to continue operating at low throughput levels.
• Gross refining margins plummeted in all regions during the quarter (vis-
à-vis 4Q19) in the range of 10%–17%. With a collapse of crude oil prices,
downstream earnings will not offset weak upstream performance of
IOCs in the near term, unlike the 2014–16 downturn.
• Normally, refiners would benefit from sharply falling crude oil prices and
more medium sour supply. However, in the near term, the margins will
shrink further as demand continues to remain fragile. In the long term,
stronger margins stemming from the oil price decline may offset
modestly lower volumes.
Source: Refining margin monitor, Jefferies
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 (till 18
March)
Refiningmargins(US$/bbl)
US Gulf Coast NW Europe Singapore
• The COVID-19 outbreak and resulting slowdown in economic activity has
impacted LNG demand, which was already growing at a slow pace before
the crisis.
• Force majeure declared by Chinese LNG buyers, lockdowns in major Asian
and European markets and full inventories mean that LNG cargos have
nowhere to go. Production cuts may be imminent.
• The weak demand and depressed spot prices could give LNG buyers more
bargaining power and accelerate the transition to a hub-based market,
marked by spot prices and increasing the role of traders.
• Amid weak market conditions and capex cuts, final investment decisions on
new LNG export projects will likely be delayed. Progress on recently
sanctioned projects is also expected to slow down.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20*
Gasprice(US$/MMBtu)
Henry Hub UK NBP TTF JKM
*Estimated YTD price
Source: Capital IQ and JP Morgan
7. Market fundamentals
Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 7
• We are rapidly approaching the point where electric vehicles (EVs) will
reach cost and performance parity with internal combustion engine (ICE)
vehicles. In fact, with oil prices at levels prevailing before the price crash,
the cost per vehicle mile for an EV is appreciably lower than for a
comparable ICE vehicle.
• Obviously, a dramatic change in the price of gasoline affects those
economics. The EY analysis of the costs suggests that an incremental
US$10/bbl change in the price of crude oil translates to a 1-cent change
in the cost per mile of driving an ICE vehicle. The relative economics of
EVs and ICE vehicles are complicated, and the cost of fuel is only about
20% of overall costs of ICE vehicle ownership.
• It is unclear how much marginal changes in driving economics will affect
consumer choices. The decision to buy an automobile is multidimensional,
and this is particularly true for “green” products, such as EVs.
How will depressed oil prices affect energy transition? Government budgets in oil-producing countries will be strained
Source: Loup Ventures and EY analysis
-25
25
75
125
175
225
Kuwait Kazakhstan Iraq UAE Saudi
Arabia
Libya Iran
Fiscalbreakevenoil
price,2020E(US$/bbl)
Source: IMF, EIA
• Oil is a key source of income for OPEC members and the crude oil price
plunge will result in revenue losses, putting a strain on their fiscal
budgets. Many of these countries are already suffering from a fiscal
deficit, which may widen further if prices continue to remain at the
current levels.
• The fiscal break even oil price of crude oil-exporting nations based on
their respective governments’ budget is high relative to prevailing crude
oil prices. Among all the crude oil exporters, Kuwait has the lowest
break even oil price of US$55/bbl, which is still 38% higher than the
average estimated crude oil price of US$40 in 2020.
• Sustained low oil prices may force the OPEC countries to slash their
government budgets drastically for 2020 (by cutting salaries, subsidies,
etc.), raise taxes or borrow from international capital markets to survive
in tough market conditions.
Average WTI price estimate for 2020 Average Brent price estimate for 2020
$0.464
$0.486
$0.458
$0.449
$0.444
Tesla Model 3
Toyota Camry oil at $60 WTI
Toyota Camry oil at $30 WTI
Toyota Camry oil at $20 WTI
Toyota Camry oil at $15 WTI
Cost per vehicle mile traveled
8. Brent futures
Q2 | April 2020Page 8
Brent futures decreased
substantially in March as
the decline in oil demand
(resulting from the
COVID-19 pandemic)
acted as a catalyst for
the breakdown in the
OPEC+ agreement that
had historically brought
stability to the oil
markets.
Although futures pricing
is expected to increase
over time, the duration
and extent of the current
imbalance are unknown.
Futures data is effective
as of 20 March 2020.
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
US$/bbl
Historical Brent Brent futures – March 2020 Brent futures – December 2019
9. Brent:
Average price per bbl forecast in 2024 —
consultants
WTI:
Average price per bbl forecast in 2024 —
consultants
Q2 | April 2020Page 9
Oil price outlook
For both benchmarks, consultants
(on average) forecast higher oil
prices throughout the period.
Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a
long-term sustainable oil price, whereas
banks/brokers balance their views on the basis
of current market conditions.
Following news that OPEC and Russia would
not extend production cuts on 6 March 2020,
our analysis is based on the following:
• For 2020 and 2021, bank/broker and
consultant estimates released since
9 March 2020
• For 2022 onward, as a result of
uncertainty as to whether current
dynamics will sustain beyond the near
term, consultant estimates include those
released since 1 January 2020
In the long term, we note high relative
forecasting uncertainty given the proven
ability of identified risk factors to move the
price significantly in a short period of time.
Consultant forecasts result in averages of
US$71.0/bbl and US$67.0/bbl for Brent and
WTI, respectively, in 2024.
This data is effective as of 20 March 2020.
Brent
Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges
and averages
WTI
Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges
and averages
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers reports, consensus economics, consultant website
US$71.0 US$67.0
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
US$perbarrel
Bank/broker range Consultants range
Bank/broker average Consultants average
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
US$perbarrel
Bank/broker range Consultants range
Bank/broker average Consultants average
10. Henry Hub:
Average price per MMbtu forecast in 2024 —
consultants
UK NBP:
Average price per therm forecast in 2024 — consultants
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
GBppertherm
Bank/broker range Consultants range
Bank/broker average Consultants average
Q2 | April 2020Page 10
Gas price outlook
For both benchmarks, consultants
(on average) forecast higher gas
prices throughout the period.
Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a
long-term sustainable gas price, whereas the
banks/brokers balance their views on the basis
of current market conditions.
Following news that OPEC and Russia would
not extend production cuts on 6 March 2020,
the EY analysis is based on the following:
• For 2020 and 2021, bank/broker and
consultant estimates released since
9th March 2020
• For 2022 onward, as a result of
uncertainty as to whether current
dynamics will sustain beyond the near
term, consultant estimates include those
released since 1 January 2020
NBP price estimates are scarce, with only one
consultant forecast release included in the
2020 and 2021 estimates (based on the
preceding forecast timing update threshold)
and three forecasts thereafter.
This data is effective as of 20 March 2020.
Henry Hub
Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges
and averages
UK NBP
Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges
and averages
US$2.9 GBp44.3
Source: Bloomberg, bank/broker reports, consensus economics, consultant website
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
US$perMMbtu
Bank/broker range Consultants range
Bank/broker average Consultants average
11. Appendix
Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 11
Brent oil price estimates
This data is effective as of 20 March 2020.
Source: Bloomberg, bank/broker reports
Source: Consultant websites, Oxford Economics
Bank/broker 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl)
High 49.0 63.5 65.0 61.2 62.4
Average 40.8 48.8 53.9 58.0 59.4
Median 42.0 50.0 55.0 59.7 60.0
Low 30.0 34.0 35.0 51.0 55.0
Consultant 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl)
High 43.3 55.4 71.0 73.0 75.0
Average 40.9 50.7 66.6 69.1 71.0
Median 40.9 50.7 69.6 71.0 72.4
Low 38.5 46.0 56.0 61.5 64.0
Note: Due to the impact of COVID-19 and the lack of production cuts from OPEC+, the consultants’ price analysis for the years 2020 and 2021 only includes forecasts that were updated
subsequent to 8 March 2020. For the long-term forecast (2022 onward), all the consultants’ estimates released since 1 January 2020 have been considered. Additionally, given the
aforementioned market conditions, the analysis only considers bank/broker estimates that were published subsequent to 8 March 2020.
12. Appendix
Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 12
WTI oil price estimates
This data is effective as of 20 March 2020.
Bank/broker 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl)
High 55.0 59.5 61.2 58.1 59.3
Average 38.4 46.3 50.4 53.7 55.5
Median 38.0 47.5 50.0 55.0 56.3
Low 29.0 31.0 32.0 44.0 50.0
Source: Bloomberg, banks/brokers reports
Consultant 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl)
High 38.2 50.4 67.0 68.3 70.0
Average 37.2 46.5 62.6 65.2 67.0
Median 37.2 46.5 65.8 67.7 69.2
Low 36.2 42.7 52.0 57.1 59.4
Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics
Note: Due to the impact of COVID-19 and the lack of production cuts from OPEC+, the consultants’ price analysis for the years 2020 and 2021 only includes forecasts that were updated
subsequent to 8 March 2020. For the-long term forecast (2022 onward), all the consultants’ estimates released since 1 January 2020 have been considered. Additionally, given the
aforementioned market conditions, the analysis only considers bank/broker estimates that were published subsequent to 8 March 2020.
13. Appendix
Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 13
Henry Hub gas price estimates
This data is effective as of 20 March 2020.
Source: Bloomberg, banks/brokers reports
* Where brokers have reported figures in US$/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu.
Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics
Bank/broker 2020 (US$/MMBtu) 2021 (US$/MMBtu) 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu)
High 2.6 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.1
Average 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8
Median 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.8
Low 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.5
Consultant 2020 (US$/MMBtu) 2021 (US$/MMBtu) 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu)
High 2.1 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.2
Average 2.0 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.9
Median 2.0 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.1
Low 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3
Note: Due to the impact of COVID-19 and the lack of production cuts from OPEC+, the consultants’ price analysis for the years 2020 and 2021 only includes forecasts that were updated
subsequent to 8 March 2020. For the long-term forecast (2022 onward), all the consultants’ estimates released since 1 January 2020 have been considered. Additionally, given the
aforementioned market conditions, the analysis only considers bank/broker estimates that were published subsequent to 8 March 2020.
14. Appendix
Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 14
NBP gas price estimates
This data is effective as of 20 March 2020.
Bank/broker 2020 (GBp/therm) 2021 (GBp/therm) 2022 (GBp/therm) 2023 (GBp/therm) 2024 (GBp/therm)
High 32.0 40.0 50.0 52.0 44.0
Average 27.6 34.3 43.1 46.3 42.0
Median 27.2 34.6 41.2 46.6 42.0
Low 24.9 30.0 40.0 40.0 40.0
Consultant 2020 (GBp/therm) 2021 (GBp/therm) 2022 (GBp/therm) 2023 (GBp/therm) 2024 (GBp/therm)
High 25.6 25.6 50.0 53.8 55.8
Average 25.6 25.6 41.8 43.4 44.3
Median 25.6 25.6 50.0 51.0 52.0
Low 25.6 25.6 25.4 25.3 25.2
Source: Bloomberg, banks/brokers reports
* Where brokers have reported figures in US$/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu and the brokers’ forecasted FX rates.
Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics
* Where consultants have reported figures in US$/MMBtu, we have used the particular consultants' forecast FX rate for the purpose of our conversion.
Note: Due to the impact of COVID-19 and the lack of production cuts from OPEC+, the consultants’ price analysis for the years 2020 and 2021 only includes forecasts that were updated
subsequent to 8 March 2020. For the long-term forecast (2022 onward), all the consultants’ estimates released since 1 January 2020 have been considered. Additionally, given the
aforementioned market conditions, the analysis only considers bank/broker estimates that were published subsequent to 8 March 2020.
15. Key contacts
Q2 | April 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 15
Important notice
Price outlook data included in this publication is effective as of 20 March 2020. Given the rapidly evolving nature of
the market and views of market participants, analysis can become quickly outdated. It should be noted that the EY
analysis is not for the purpose of providing an independent view of the outlook for oil and gas prices. Instead, we are
collating the views of market participants.
Price outlook data should not be applied mechanistically. Instead, careful consideration should be given to the purpose
of any value assessment with price forecasts assessed in the context of the other key assumptions, such as resources
and reserves classification, production rates, discount rates and cost escalation rates, together with an appreciation of
the key sensitivities in any such analysis.
Jeff Williams
EY Global Oil & Gas
Advisory Leader
+1 713 750 5916
Gary Donald
EY Global Oil & Gas
Assurance Leader
+44 20 7951 751
Derek Leith
EY Global Oil & Gas
Tax Leader
+44 12 2465 3246
Andy Brogan
EY Global Oil & Gas
Leader
+44 20 7951 7009
John Hartung
EY Global Oil & Gas TAS
Leader
+1 713 751 2114