The theme for this quarter is reprieve. Crude prices rose steadily throughout 1Q19 as OPEC+ reigned in production to counteract the impact of North American production growth. What lies ahead is uncertain, but downward pressures loom over the marketplace.
EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlook Q4 2018EY
A range of upside forces have shifted market sentiment and some parties are talking of $90, or even $100/bbl oil in the short to medium term. Our insights on the outlook for the global oil price in Q4 2018.
Q2 – Analyst Themes of Quarterly Oil & Gas EarningsEY
Most companies reported strong earnings growth in the second quarter, but investors were disappointed. Expectations had risen in line with oil prices and profits, but cash flow generation of some companies fell short of consensus estimates.
Analyst themes of quarterly oil and gas earnings Q4 2018EY
The oil and gas industry started the fourth quarter of 2018 with high hopes. Oil prices had risen in the last half of the third quarter and indicators were pointing upward. As is often the case, events took over and oil prices erased all the gains made since the beginning of 2017.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
The theme for this quarter is resilience. A 6% supply outage in September was unable to push Brent prices above US$70/bbl. Demand concerns, driven by slowing world economic growth and the need to decarbonize, quickly retook the stage despite output from Venezuela and Iran being hindered by political turmoil and international sanctions.
Technology enhancements are a significant contributor to the market’s sanguine attitude towards supply disruption. Operators are able to produce greater volumes, quicker, and at a lower cost. That trend can only continue.
LNG markets continue to mature as traders play an increasing role in directing cargoes and setting prices. The pipeline for LNG projects remains healthy as market participants aim to establish a position in a market that is seen as the best opportunity for growth in oil and gas.
EY Price Point: Global Oil and Gas Market Outlook - Q3EY
The oil and gas sector is constantly changing. Increasingly uncertain energy policies, geopolitical complexities, cost management and climate change all present significant challenges. EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector supports a global network of more than 10,000 oil and gas professionals with extensive experience in providing assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services across the upstream, midstream, downstream and oil field sub-sectors.
Quarterly analyst themes of oil and gas earningsEY
As it almost always is, oil and gas profitability was driven by crude oil, refined product and natural gas market conditions in Q2 2019. Oil prices seesawed, rising steadily during the first half of the quarter, falling during most of the second half of the quarter, before rising again at the end.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As we close the second quarter of 2020, in most of Europe and Asia, the first (and hopefully last) wave of the COVID-19 crisis appears to be abating. In the parts of the US where the virus hit early, the profile has largely matched Europe’s, while in other parts, the urge to reopen businesses has trumped the desire to contain the virus and uncertainty looms. In the developing world, the crisis has just begun, but without the economic headroom and resources necessary to contain it. As the crisis unfolded, the effect on oil and gas demand has been predictable but difficult to gauge precisely and therefore difficult to manage.
Oil prices have crept up steadily as production has been curtailed through coordinated action (OPEC+) and because of economic reality (unconventional oil in North America). That trend has been subject to momentary spasms when bad news hit the market. It would be understandable if traders were nervous, and it seems that they are. Although nowhere near where it was at the peak of the crisis, option implied volatility is still at historically high levels. Gas markets, without the benefit of coordination on the supply side, continue to deal with the market implications of storage at or near capacity. Interfuel competition in power generation has always provided something of a floor, but those lows have been, and will continue to be, tested.
EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlook Q4 2018EY
A range of upside forces have shifted market sentiment and some parties are talking of $90, or even $100/bbl oil in the short to medium term. Our insights on the outlook for the global oil price in Q4 2018.
Q2 – Analyst Themes of Quarterly Oil & Gas EarningsEY
Most companies reported strong earnings growth in the second quarter, but investors were disappointed. Expectations had risen in line with oil prices and profits, but cash flow generation of some companies fell short of consensus estimates.
Analyst themes of quarterly oil and gas earnings Q4 2018EY
The oil and gas industry started the fourth quarter of 2018 with high hopes. Oil prices had risen in the last half of the third quarter and indicators were pointing upward. As is often the case, events took over and oil prices erased all the gains made since the beginning of 2017.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
The theme for this quarter is resilience. A 6% supply outage in September was unable to push Brent prices above US$70/bbl. Demand concerns, driven by slowing world economic growth and the need to decarbonize, quickly retook the stage despite output from Venezuela and Iran being hindered by political turmoil and international sanctions.
Technology enhancements are a significant contributor to the market’s sanguine attitude towards supply disruption. Operators are able to produce greater volumes, quicker, and at a lower cost. That trend can only continue.
LNG markets continue to mature as traders play an increasing role in directing cargoes and setting prices. The pipeline for LNG projects remains healthy as market participants aim to establish a position in a market that is seen as the best opportunity for growth in oil and gas.
EY Price Point: Global Oil and Gas Market Outlook - Q3EY
The oil and gas sector is constantly changing. Increasingly uncertain energy policies, geopolitical complexities, cost management and climate change all present significant challenges. EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector supports a global network of more than 10,000 oil and gas professionals with extensive experience in providing assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services across the upstream, midstream, downstream and oil field sub-sectors.
Quarterly analyst themes of oil and gas earningsEY
As it almost always is, oil and gas profitability was driven by crude oil, refined product and natural gas market conditions in Q2 2019. Oil prices seesawed, rising steadily during the first half of the quarter, falling during most of the second half of the quarter, before rising again at the end.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As we close the second quarter of 2020, in most of Europe and Asia, the first (and hopefully last) wave of the COVID-19 crisis appears to be abating. In the parts of the US where the virus hit early, the profile has largely matched Europe’s, while in other parts, the urge to reopen businesses has trumped the desire to contain the virus and uncertainty looms. In the developing world, the crisis has just begun, but without the economic headroom and resources necessary to contain it. As the crisis unfolded, the effect on oil and gas demand has been predictable but difficult to gauge precisely and therefore difficult to manage.
Oil prices have crept up steadily as production has been curtailed through coordinated action (OPEC+) and because of economic reality (unconventional oil in North America). That trend has been subject to momentary spasms when bad news hit the market. It would be understandable if traders were nervous, and it seems that they are. Although nowhere near where it was at the peak of the crisis, option implied volatility is still at historically high levels. Gas markets, without the benefit of coordination on the supply side, continue to deal with the market implications of storage at or near capacity. Interfuel competition in power generation has always provided something of a floor, but those lows have been, and will continue to be, tested.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 April 2021EY
The theme for this quarter is governed. Apparent market balance at prices that could be sustainable is the product of calculated choices by market leaders and the cooperation of those who follow them. Economics played their customary role as well, with capital scarcity in North America taking about 2 million barrels per day out of the market, about half of the remaining gap in demand. While inventories are close to their pre-COVID-19 levels, there is still uncertainty. The resolution of the pandemic is in sight, but timing is unclear. Vaccine distribution in the US is having an impact but Europe is struggling to contain a third wave of infections. The taps have opened on economic stimulus, but it remains to be seen if policymakers have done enough or if they have overshot the mark.
The shape of the crude oil forward curve has fundamentally changed since the end of the last quarter. In late December of last year, the Brent forward curve was gradually increasing while today, the curve is backwardated. This is a clear sign that the market sees a short-term dynamic that is disconnected from the medium-to-long-term fundamentals. The lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic remains to be seen. While many have opined that COVID-19 marks a turning point in energy transition, the IEA recently released a five-year forecast of oil demand that shows steady growth, albeit at rates that are below historical expectations.
Gas markets are a paradox. At the Henry Hub and at LNG destinations, demand grows, investment lags and prices will occasionally attract attention. Traders, so far though, are unconvinced and futures prices don’t indicate imminent scarcity at any link in the value chain.
EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlook - 1Q19EY
The theme for this quarter is reversal. Following a period of sustained growth throughout the first 10 months of 2018, the oil price recovery began to reverse in the fourth quarter.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
We enter 2021 on a note of cautious optimism for global health, the world economy, and the oil and gas markets. The first weeks of December brought approval in the US and the UK of the first of several COVID-19 vaccines. The speed with which vaccine development occurred is unprecedented, but certainly welcome. In the weeks following the early November announcement of 90+% effectiveness by the manufacturer of the first approved vaccine, the price of WTI crude oil increased by US$10/bbl to US$48/bbl, the highest level since early March. Sustainability hasn’t returned yet, and whatever time it takes to get the world to normal, it will take even longer for normalization within the oil and gas markets. Inventories remain at historically high levels and, optimistically, it will take until April before inventory returns to levels observed in the preceding five years. That’s an estimate, and there has obviously been some difficulty properly calibrating the expectations of how balance will return and how long it will take. In late November, OPEC met to adjust its output plans because of the anemic rebound in demand. In mid-December, the IEA lowered its demand forecast for 2021 due mostly to continued sluggishness in aviation fuel demand.
A mild winter has interrupted a recovery in North American natural gas prices after a run-up motivated by curtailed capital expenditures, upstream activity and production. After an initial meltdown, with cargo cancellations and dramatic price reversal, LNG markets have made a remarkable comeback, and the spread between Asia and Henry Hub has reached a level we haven’t seen in almost three years. It may be the case that interruption in FIDs has brought us to the cusp of a balance that can support reliable returns.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook (Q4, October 2020)EY
Oil and gas prices have recovered steadily from their lows and are relatively stable, but that stability is supported by the combination of purposeful withholding of production by oil-producing countries and economic stress on upstream independents. Oil prices closed the quarter roughly where they started it, while refining spreads were down slightly. LNG spreads were substantially higher at the end of Q3 than they were at the beginning of the quarter but are still roughly half of what is generally thought of as sustainable.
Going forward, the market will be looking closely at how the economy and demand respond to new developments with respect to a potential COVID-19 vaccine and the US election.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q319EY
The theme for this quarter is consistency: in the significant trends impacting prices, at least. The forces that impacted oil prices in the second quarter were the same as those that have impacted prices quarter after quarter for the past several years. Surging North American production counterbalanced by OPEC+ production cuts has kept prices in a fairly narrow range. The market has become remarkably resilient. For some time now, long-dated oil futures have traded at a price very close to the market’s view of the break-even price of unconventional oil in North America.
EY Analyst themes of quarterly oil & gas earnings: 3Q18EY
Oil & gas companies are reporting stronger cash flows and improved bottom lines. Analysts are focused on how that cash will be put to work. Do they return cash to shareholders or do they expand portfolios, possibly taking advantage of stronger market indicators? Macro factors and timing are likely to play a greater role as markets reset.
The theme for this quarter is inorganic. Although prices climbed in the fourth quarter as the balance of supply and demand tilted in favour of demand, OPEC + restraint was fundamental.
The market is conscious of downside pressures that loom. OPEC + has announced production cuts through to the end of the first quarter. Beyond the first quarter, there is a risk that OPEC + grows weary of supporting the market and reverts to a strategy of growing production, protecting market share and placing pressure on the economics of unconventional producers. Production growth in Brazil and Norway has the potential to consume a significant portion of demand growth expected in 2020. Whether, or the extent to which, US shale output growth continues despite escalating financial strain across the E&P sector will be key in determining whether OPEC + cuts will be sufficient to balance the market in 2020.
In the longer-term, focus remains on the energy mix of the future and its impact on the demand for petroleum products. A number of significant uncertainties remain, including electric vehicle (EV) penetration. EY’s ‘Fueling the Future’ analyzes the outlook under four distinct scenarios. The analysis shows that an inflection point in EV penetration is required by 2022 if the terms of the Paris Accord are to be met.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2, April 2020EY
The first quarter of this year has seen some extraordinary events. As if chronic oversupply, prices stuck below sustainable levels, the looming energy transition, and investor pressure to decarbonize weren’t enough, our industry now faces a dramatic, but hopefully temporary, downturn in demand as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak.
In 2019, we saw evidence of the impact of economic headwinds on overall mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, with global deal value declining 33% from Q4 2018 to US$20.6b. Deal value increased in the renewables and water and wastewater segments quarter on quarter while decreasing in the remaining segments.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
Global power and utilities transactions attained an all-time high in 2018, increasing 28% in overall deal value to $256.3b with a record volume of 546 deals, according to the EY report Power transactions and trends Q4 2018
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 | April 2022EY
The theme for this quarter is rearrangement. The loss, or potential loss, of Russian oil and gas supplies is forcing producers, refiners and traders to rethink the flow of crude oil and refined products from the wellhead to the gas pump in light of sanctions, potential sanctions and the risk of reputational damage. Countries, companies and consumers will all be searching for ways to adapt, and the outcome of the race to bring alternatives to market could alter the global energy landscape for years to come.
It is likely crude oil and LNG prices will remain elevated for some time. The process of diverting Russian oil through countries unwilling to sanction it will take time and there is little indication OPEC members are willing (or able) to increase production to make up for the loss of Russian crude. Spare capacity sat at 3.7 mbpd at the end of 2021, just above where it was in January 2020. Currently, sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian production (about 3 mbpd below their peak) could fill the gap, but political and commercial obstacles remain. At today’s prices, US shale production is attractive, but the fastest the industry has been able to grow is between 1mbpd and 2mbpd per year. The LNG infrastructure was already stretched before the war in Ukraine and there is little prosect of finding new supplies soon.
As the largest buyer of Russian energy, Europe will be the epicenter. There is a deeply embedded bias there in favor for renewable energy, and the current crisis is certain to result in an all-out effort to accelerate the build-out of wind and solar power. The capacity to add new green energy is limited though by the project pipeline and supply chains for solar panels and wind turbines, and it is likely that much of the shortfall will be made up with the new LNG infrastructure.
IBOR transition: Opportunities and challenges for the asset management industryEY
EY Wealth & Asset Management explores the practical implications and the way forward for the transition to the new risk-free rates. This presentation aims to help asset managers and asset owners explore IBOR transition strategies that are compliant and future-focused.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 April 2021EY
The theme for this quarter is governed. Apparent market balance at prices that could be sustainable is the product of calculated choices by market leaders and the cooperation of those who follow them. Economics played their customary role as well, with capital scarcity in North America taking about 2 million barrels per day out of the market, about half of the remaining gap in demand. While inventories are close to their pre-COVID-19 levels, there is still uncertainty. The resolution of the pandemic is in sight, but timing is unclear. Vaccine distribution in the US is having an impact but Europe is struggling to contain a third wave of infections. The taps have opened on economic stimulus, but it remains to be seen if policymakers have done enough or if they have overshot the mark.
The shape of the crude oil forward curve has fundamentally changed since the end of the last quarter. In late December of last year, the Brent forward curve was gradually increasing while today, the curve is backwardated. This is a clear sign that the market sees a short-term dynamic that is disconnected from the medium-to-long-term fundamentals. The lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic remains to be seen. While many have opined that COVID-19 marks a turning point in energy transition, the IEA recently released a five-year forecast of oil demand that shows steady growth, albeit at rates that are below historical expectations.
Gas markets are a paradox. At the Henry Hub and at LNG destinations, demand grows, investment lags and prices will occasionally attract attention. Traders, so far though, are unconvinced and futures prices don’t indicate imminent scarcity at any link in the value chain.
EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlook - 1Q19EY
The theme for this quarter is reversal. Following a period of sustained growth throughout the first 10 months of 2018, the oil price recovery began to reverse in the fourth quarter.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
We enter 2021 on a note of cautious optimism for global health, the world economy, and the oil and gas markets. The first weeks of December brought approval in the US and the UK of the first of several COVID-19 vaccines. The speed with which vaccine development occurred is unprecedented, but certainly welcome. In the weeks following the early November announcement of 90+% effectiveness by the manufacturer of the first approved vaccine, the price of WTI crude oil increased by US$10/bbl to US$48/bbl, the highest level since early March. Sustainability hasn’t returned yet, and whatever time it takes to get the world to normal, it will take even longer for normalization within the oil and gas markets. Inventories remain at historically high levels and, optimistically, it will take until April before inventory returns to levels observed in the preceding five years. That’s an estimate, and there has obviously been some difficulty properly calibrating the expectations of how balance will return and how long it will take. In late November, OPEC met to adjust its output plans because of the anemic rebound in demand. In mid-December, the IEA lowered its demand forecast for 2021 due mostly to continued sluggishness in aviation fuel demand.
A mild winter has interrupted a recovery in North American natural gas prices after a run-up motivated by curtailed capital expenditures, upstream activity and production. After an initial meltdown, with cargo cancellations and dramatic price reversal, LNG markets have made a remarkable comeback, and the spread between Asia and Henry Hub has reached a level we haven’t seen in almost three years. It may be the case that interruption in FIDs has brought us to the cusp of a balance that can support reliable returns.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook (Q4, October 2020)EY
Oil and gas prices have recovered steadily from their lows and are relatively stable, but that stability is supported by the combination of purposeful withholding of production by oil-producing countries and economic stress on upstream independents. Oil prices closed the quarter roughly where they started it, while refining spreads were down slightly. LNG spreads were substantially higher at the end of Q3 than they were at the beginning of the quarter but are still roughly half of what is generally thought of as sustainable.
Going forward, the market will be looking closely at how the economy and demand respond to new developments with respect to a potential COVID-19 vaccine and the US election.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q319EY
The theme for this quarter is consistency: in the significant trends impacting prices, at least. The forces that impacted oil prices in the second quarter were the same as those that have impacted prices quarter after quarter for the past several years. Surging North American production counterbalanced by OPEC+ production cuts has kept prices in a fairly narrow range. The market has become remarkably resilient. For some time now, long-dated oil futures have traded at a price very close to the market’s view of the break-even price of unconventional oil in North America.
EY Analyst themes of quarterly oil & gas earnings: 3Q18EY
Oil & gas companies are reporting stronger cash flows and improved bottom lines. Analysts are focused on how that cash will be put to work. Do they return cash to shareholders or do they expand portfolios, possibly taking advantage of stronger market indicators? Macro factors and timing are likely to play a greater role as markets reset.
The theme for this quarter is inorganic. Although prices climbed in the fourth quarter as the balance of supply and demand tilted in favour of demand, OPEC + restraint was fundamental.
The market is conscious of downside pressures that loom. OPEC + has announced production cuts through to the end of the first quarter. Beyond the first quarter, there is a risk that OPEC + grows weary of supporting the market and reverts to a strategy of growing production, protecting market share and placing pressure on the economics of unconventional producers. Production growth in Brazil and Norway has the potential to consume a significant portion of demand growth expected in 2020. Whether, or the extent to which, US shale output growth continues despite escalating financial strain across the E&P sector will be key in determining whether OPEC + cuts will be sufficient to balance the market in 2020.
In the longer-term, focus remains on the energy mix of the future and its impact on the demand for petroleum products. A number of significant uncertainties remain, including electric vehicle (EV) penetration. EY’s ‘Fueling the Future’ analyzes the outlook under four distinct scenarios. The analysis shows that an inflection point in EV penetration is required by 2022 if the terms of the Paris Accord are to be met.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2, April 2020EY
The first quarter of this year has seen some extraordinary events. As if chronic oversupply, prices stuck below sustainable levels, the looming energy transition, and investor pressure to decarbonize weren’t enough, our industry now faces a dramatic, but hopefully temporary, downturn in demand as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak.
In 2019, we saw evidence of the impact of economic headwinds on overall mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity, with global deal value declining 33% from Q4 2018 to US$20.6b. Deal value increased in the renewables and water and wastewater segments quarter on quarter while decreasing in the remaining segments.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
Global power and utilities transactions attained an all-time high in 2018, increasing 28% in overall deal value to $256.3b with a record volume of 546 deals, according to the EY report Power transactions and trends Q4 2018
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 | April 2022EY
The theme for this quarter is rearrangement. The loss, or potential loss, of Russian oil and gas supplies is forcing producers, refiners and traders to rethink the flow of crude oil and refined products from the wellhead to the gas pump in light of sanctions, potential sanctions and the risk of reputational damage. Countries, companies and consumers will all be searching for ways to adapt, and the outcome of the race to bring alternatives to market could alter the global energy landscape for years to come.
It is likely crude oil and LNG prices will remain elevated for some time. The process of diverting Russian oil through countries unwilling to sanction it will take time and there is little indication OPEC members are willing (or able) to increase production to make up for the loss of Russian crude. Spare capacity sat at 3.7 mbpd at the end of 2021, just above where it was in January 2020. Currently, sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian production (about 3 mbpd below their peak) could fill the gap, but political and commercial obstacles remain. At today’s prices, US shale production is attractive, but the fastest the industry has been able to grow is between 1mbpd and 2mbpd per year. The LNG infrastructure was already stretched before the war in Ukraine and there is little prosect of finding new supplies soon.
As the largest buyer of Russian energy, Europe will be the epicenter. There is a deeply embedded bias there in favor for renewable energy, and the current crisis is certain to result in an all-out effort to accelerate the build-out of wind and solar power. The capacity to add new green energy is limited though by the project pipeline and supply chains for solar panels and wind turbines, and it is likely that much of the shortfall will be made up with the new LNG infrastructure.
IBOR transition: Opportunities and challenges for the asset management industryEY
EY Wealth & Asset Management explores the practical implications and the way forward for the transition to the new risk-free rates. This presentation aims to help asset managers and asset owners explore IBOR transition strategies that are compliant and future-focused.
The sustainability of trading profits has always been questioned. Volatility has returned to pre-crisis levels and, absent more disruption, the size of the opportunity will shrink.
See this week's edition of EY Price Point
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q2 2019 | Region: Permian BasinMercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
The theme for this quarter is apprehension. In September, the US Federal Reserve announced a third 75 basis point increase in the federal funds rate. In the aftermath, the two-year treasury rate reached the highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis and the spread between two and ten-year rates went below negative 50basis points for the first time since the early eighties. Equity markets have begun to price in the likelihood of a recession and, if history is any indication, the impact on oil markets could be profound.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q3 2021 | Segment: BakkenMercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes a macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
Mercer Capital's Value Focus: Energy Industry | Q1 2020 | Region Focus: Eagle...Mercer Capital
Mercer Capital's Energy Industry newsletter provides perspective on valuation issues. Each newsletter also typically includes macroeconomic trends, industry trends, and guideline public company metrics.
New base energy news issue 915 dated 25 august 2016Khaled Al Awadi
Greetings,
Attached FYI (NewBase 25 August 2016 ) , from Hawk Energy Services Dubai . Daily energy news covering the MENA area and related worldwide energy news. In today’s issue you will find news about:-
• LNG IN THE NEW OIL PRICE ERA, By Morten Frisch
• Saudi Arabia Holds China Market Share Lead on Record Oil Output
• China Oil Giants Unmoved by Bull Rally After Worst-Ever Earnings
• Norway's Oil Investments To Fall Again In 2017
• Kenya: Work Begins on 2D Seismic Survey in Wajir Kenya
• Kenya: First Kenyan Oil Due by March 2017; Exports to Follow
• Oil prices fall as market focus returns to global supply overhang
• As Japan and South Korea import less LNG, other Asian countries begin to import more
we would appreciate your actions to send to all interested parties that you may wish. Also note that if you or your organization wish to include your own article or advert in our circulations, please send it to :-
khdmohd@hotmail.com or khdmohd@hawkenergy.net
Best Regards.
Khaled Al Awadi
Energy Consultant & NewBase Chairman - Senior Chief Editor
MS & BS Mechanical Engineering (HON), USA
Emarat member since 1990
ASME meme since 1995
Hawk Energy since 2010
Similar to EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook (20)
The theme for this quarter is momentum meets uncertainty. The upward trend in crude oil, natural gas, LNG and refined product prices that began in Q1 continued into Q2. Crude oil markets began the quarter just below $100/bbl and have closed below that level on only two days since late April. As we begin Q3, there are increasing concerns about the health of the global economy and how that might affect oil and gas demand.
Quarterly analyst themes of oil and gas earnings, Q1 2022EY
Financial questions continued to attract the most attention of the analyst community, with major focus on how companies will respond to the war in Ukraine, elevated commodity prices and improved cash flows. Strategic questions focused on how the changing geopolitical environment will affect capital allocation in the short and long term. Operationally, all eyes were on the capacity of companies to step up asset utilization and bring new projects to market quickly. Explore the latest EY quarterly analysts themes.
Zahl der Gewinnwarnungen steigt auf RekordniveauEY
Immer mehr deutsche börsennotierte Unternehmen müssen ihre eigenen Umsatz- oder Gewinnprognosen nach unten korrigieren. Im ersten Quartal stieg die Zahl der Prognosekorrekturen auf ein neues Rekordniveau: Insgesamt 77 Gewinn- oder Umsatzwarnungen wurden registriert.
Die Corona-Krise trifft auch die Versicherungsbranche mit voller Wucht. Die Versicherer rechnen mit weniger Neugeschäft. Jeder Fünfte mit Personalabbau und Prämienerhöhungen.
Liquidity for advanced manufacturing and automotive sectors in the face of Co...EY
With a global economy in crisis due to Covid-19 our liquidity and cash management deck for advanced manufacturing and
mobility companies looks at how these companies should best respond.
Fusionen und Übernahmen dürften nach der Krise zunehmenEY
Folgt auf die Corona-Krise ein M&A-Boom? Laut Capital Confidence Barometer von #EY hoffen 40 Prozent der deutschen Unternehmen auf sinkende Bewertungen von Übernahmekandidaten.
Our Global Chemical Industry Leader Frank Jenner explores the trends and drivers that will shape the chemical industry of tomorrow in our latest Chemical Market Outlook.
Die Geschäftslage im Mittelstand hat sich leicht verschlechtert, ist in den meisten Branchen aber weiter überwiegend gut - die Einstellungsbereitschaft sinkt.
Deutschlands börsennotierte Unternehmen werden weiblicherEY
Der Frauenanteil in den Vorstandsetagen der DAX-, MDAX- und SDAX-Unternehmen ist seit Juli 2015 kontinuierlich von 5,0 auf jetzt 9,2 Prozent gestiegen.
Bezpieczne ulgi podatkowe 2019 r. to jedno z zagadnień omawianych przez Tomasza Sochę, Associate Partnera #EY_Polska podczas konferencji „Bezpieczny podatnik”. Odbyła się ona w ramach projektu edukacyjnego #BezpiecznyPodatnik, którego celem jest wsparcie przedsiębiorców w efektywnym funkcjonowaniu w polskim otoczeniu prawno-podatkowym. #ulgipodatkowe #podatki2020 #podatki
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins at high rate quickly.DOT TECH
Where can I sell my pi coins at a high rate.
Pi is not launched yet on any exchange. But one can easily sell his or her pi coins to investors who want to hold pi till mainnet launch.
This means crypto whales want to hold pi. And you can get a good rate for selling pi to them. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor below.
A vendor is someone who buys from a miner and resell it to a holder or crypto whale.
Here is the telegram contact of my vendor:
@Pi_vendor_247
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Falcon stands out as a top-tier P2P Invoice Discounting platform in India, bridging esteemed blue-chip companies and eager investors. Our goal is to transform the investment landscape in India by establishing a comprehensive destination for borrowers and investors with diverse profiles and needs, all while minimizing risk. What sets Falcon apart is the elimination of intermediaries such as commercial banks and depository institutions, allowing investors to enjoy higher yields.
Latino Buying Power - May 2024 Presentation for Latino CaucusDanay Escanaverino
Unlock the potential of Latino Buying Power with this in-depth SlideShare presentation. Explore how the Latino consumer market is transforming the American economy, driven by their significant buying power, entrepreneurial contributions, and growing influence across various sectors.
**Key Sections Covered:**
1. **Economic Impact:** Understand the profound economic impact of Latino consumers on the U.S. economy. Discover how their increasing purchasing power is fueling growth in key industries and contributing to national economic prosperity.
2. **Buying Power:** Dive into detailed analyses of Latino buying power, including its growth trends, key drivers, and projections for the future. Learn how this influential group’s spending habits are shaping market dynamics and creating opportunities for businesses.
3. **Entrepreneurial Contributions:** Explore the entrepreneurial spirit within the Latino community. Examine how Latino-owned businesses are thriving and contributing to job creation, innovation, and economic diversification.
4. **Workforce Statistics:** Gain insights into the role of Latino workers in the American labor market. Review statistics on employment rates, occupational distribution, and the economic contributions of Latino professionals across various industries.
5. **Media Consumption:** Understand the media consumption habits of Latino audiences. Discover their preferences for digital platforms, television, radio, and social media. Learn how these consumption patterns are influencing advertising strategies and media content.
6. **Education:** Examine the educational achievements and challenges within the Latino community. Review statistics on enrollment, graduation rates, and fields of study. Understand the implications of education on economic mobility and workforce readiness.
7. **Home Ownership:** Explore trends in Latino home ownership. Understand the factors driving home buying decisions, the challenges faced by Latino homeowners, and the impact of home ownership on community stability and economic growth.
This SlideShare provides valuable insights for marketers, business owners, policymakers, and anyone interested in the economic influence of the Latino community. By understanding the various facets of Latino buying power, you can effectively engage with this dynamic and growing market segment.
Equip yourself with the knowledge to leverage Latino buying power, tap into their entrepreneurial spirit, and connect with their unique cultural and consumer preferences. Drive your business success by embracing the economic potential of Latino consumers.
**Keywords:** Latino buying power, economic impact, entrepreneurial contributions, workforce statistics, media consumption, education, home ownership, Latino market, Hispanic buying power, Latino purchasing power.
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
NO1 Uk Black Magic Specialist Expert In Sahiwal, Okara, Hafizabad, Mandi Bah...Amil Baba Dawood bangali
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Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
how can I sell my pi coins for cash in a pi APPDOT TECH
You can't sell your pi coins in the pi network app. because it is not listed yet on any exchange.
The only way you can sell is by trading your pi coins with an investor (a person looking forward to hold massive amounts of pi coins before mainnet launch) .
You don't need to meet the investor directly all the trades are done with a pi vendor/merchant (a person that buys the pi coins from miners and resell it to investors)
I Will leave The telegram contact of my personal pi vendor, if you are finding a legitimate one.
@Pi_vendor_247
#pi network
#pi coins
#money
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview.pptxmarketing367770
USDA Loans in California: A Comprehensive Overview
If you're dreaming of owning a home in California's rural or suburban areas, a USDA loan might be the perfect solution. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers these loans to help low-to-moderate-income individuals and families achieve homeownership.
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USDA loans are an excellent option for those looking to buy a home in California's rural and suburban areas. With no down payment and flexible requirements, these loans make homeownership more attainable for many families. Explore your eligibility today and take the first step toward owning your dream home.
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
what is the best method to sell pi coins in 2024DOT TECH
The best way to sell your pi coins safely is trading with an exchange..but since pi is not launched in any exchange, and second option is through a VERIFIED pi merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and pioneers and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive amounts before mainnet launch in 2026.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade pi coins with.
@Pi_vendor_247
2. Q2 overview
Oil markets have stabilized, at least for the time being. OPEC and Russia (‘OPEC +’) once again stepped up to
support oil prices. We don’t know how much longer they can (or want to) play that role. Offsetting production
growth from North American independents who are dependent on external finance from increasingly sceptical
investors has been manageable. However, OPEC + now face the prospect of offsetting US production growth
delivered by IOCs with strong balance sheets, access to capital, a proven capacity to withstand market cycles
and the technical capabilities to bring ever more impressive technology to the oilfield.
The market has taken notice of this as well as other downside forces. Futures remain in backwardation.
Whether it be demand pressure from decarbonization ambitions, or further efficiency improvements from
digitalization, potential downward pressure on oil prices loom.
Gary Donald
EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader
gdonald@uk.ey.com
Andy Brogan
EY Global Oil & Gas Leader
abrogan@uk.ey.com
Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 2
3. Q2 theme
The theme for this quarter is reprieve. Crude prices rose steadily throughout 1Q19 as OPEC + reigned in
production to counteract the impact of North American production growth. What lies ahead is uncertain, but
downward pressures loom over the marketplace.
In recent periods, North American production growth has been strong in spite of profitability and cash flow
challenges. Increasing interest in shale from the oil majors indicates that the corner may have been turned on
economics. A renewed squeeze on cost, investment of capital and yet another surge in production seems
imminent.
OPEC + production cuts have been supported by the impact of US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. Eventually
that oil will come back to the market. When it does, OPEC will face another choice between market share and
price stability.
• How long will OPEC be able to afford, or be willing, to curtail its production to
balance oil markets?
• IOCs are showing an increased interest in North American shale. How will their
involvement change the resilience of production growth?
• What will happen when Venezuelan and Iranian oil return to the market?
?
Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 3
4. Trends
Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 4
OPEC + and
US sanctions
Amid sustained growth in US shale, oil
markets continue to rely on production cuts
from OPEC + to support prices. The impact
of US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela
support those efforts, for now. The
sustainability of these compensating factors
will play a large part in determining oil
prices in the near future.
IOC interest
in North
America
North American oil production continues to
surge and returns now seem sustainable.
Oil majors have communicated their intent
to continue investing in the region while
signalling an expectation of further cost
reduction. If delivered, not only would
output surge, but North American
production will become more resilient to
market cycles.
IOC equity
returns lag
IOC equity returns over the last five years
have lagged the overall market, even when
accounting for oil price effects. Concerns
over their ability to transition to a low
carbon world is a factor. Our research
indicates that companies who are better
prepared to manage energy transition risks
have generated better returns than their
competitors.
Oil majors have started to sanction LNG
projects without long-term sales
agreements, instead funding projects from
their balance sheets. Weaker demand
resulted in Asia LNG prices reaching a three
year low during 1Q19 with some cargoes
diverted to Europe.
LNG demand
pauses
5. Market fundamentals
Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 5
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Source: IEA
• Brent and WTI averaged $62.19 and $53.87 per bbl, respectively, during
the first quarter. Average prices in 1Q19 represented a 10% decline for
both benchmarks when compared to the previous quarter. 4Q18 averages
were buoyed by prices realized before the steep decline that started in
November following the US Government’s decision to issue waivers to
major off-takers of Iranian crude.
• Brent and WTI prices climbed steadily throughout 1Q19 from $50.56 and
$45.15, respectively, at the start of the year.
• 1Q19 prices were supported by OPEC + production cut compliance and the
impact of US sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela. US production
continues to grow leaving oil markets to rely on OPEC + and the impact of
sanctions to support prices.
• North American production growth continues to be the main driver towards
oversupply, growing almost 700,000 barrels a day in the most recent
quarter. Global oil demand fell seasonally between Q4 2018 and Q1 2019,
further contributing to oversupply.
• The fall in oil prices toward the end of last year was arrested because of
OPEC + production restraint. The parties have, for now at least, accepted
that North American shale oil production will grow unabated. Prices low
enough to stall North American production appear too low for OPEC + to
justify defending market share.
• Production growth outside of OPEC and North America is, as it has been for
several years now, balanced. As long as capital flows into North America
and OPEC + are willing to balance the market, it seems unlikely that
investment in other regions will have a significant impact on the global
supply and demand balance.
Steady growth in crude prices since the start of the year North American growth continues to drive oversupply
40.00
45.00
50.00
55.00
60.00
65.00
70.00
75.00
80.00
85.00
90.00
01/10/2018 01/11/2018 01/12/2018 01/01/2019 01/02/2019 01/03/2019
$/bbl
Brent WTI
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
Starting Balance Demand Growth OPEC North America Other End Balance
millionbarrelsperday
Movement to oversupply Movement to undersupply
6. Market fundamentals
Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 6
Source: OPEC
1
1Q19 supply movements calculated using the average of January and February volumes.
Source: EIA
• In an attempt to reverse the decline in oil prices that started in November,
OPEC + announced an agreement to curtail production for a period of six
months from January. The group has delivered on those commitments,
stabilizing the market in 1Q19 despite continued growth in US output.
• The reduction in OPEC + output has been emphasised by the impact of US
sanctions on Iran and Venezuela. US sanctions on Iran continue to suppress
the nations exports and, in turn, global supply. Waivers issued by the US
Government to major off-takers of Iranian crude expire in May of this year.
President Trump’s desired oil price will be a key factor in the potential for
the extension of such waivers.
• In January, the US Government imposed sanctions on Petroleos de
Venezuela (‘PDVSA’), blocking exports to the US. The US Government has
warned that more severe sanctions, whereby sanctions are extended to
importers outside of the US, are an option.
• In Q418, for the first time since 2014, the Return on Capital Employed for
North American independents exceeded those reported by IOCs. The returns
generated in recent quarters are attractive to IOCs with Exxon, Chevron and
BP all communicating their intent to invest further in the region.
• There are good reasons to believe majors will have a different (and more
favorable) cost and return equation. IOCs have better developed supply
chains, more leverage with service providers and the ability to bring cutting
edge technologies to bear at scale.
• We believe that the growing IOC footprint in US shale has the potential to
fundamentally change the market stabilization dynamic we’ve come to
expect. Up until now, OPEC + production cuts had gone to offset production
growth from independents with access to capital which depended on oil
market conditions. IOCs are more resilient and are able to invest based on a
longer view.
OPEC + and the impact of US sanctions North American returns attractive
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19
Quarter on quarter movement in supply
Iran Venezuala OPEC +
1
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
ReturnonCapitalEmployed
IOCs NA Independents
7. Market fundamentals
Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 7
Source: Capital IQ, EY Analysis Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
• Historically, most of the variation in IOC equity returns can be explained by
the movement in the broader equity markets (S&P 500) and changes in the
price of oil.
• In the last five years, oil company returns have lagged significantly. Oil
prices have been a drag, but upward movement in stock prices should have
provided some support. We believe that questions over the future of oil in a
world with growing concerns over carbon emissions play a part in that
trend.
• Preparation for a low carbon world seems to be linked to returns. The CDP
(formerly the Carbon Disclosure Project) ranked 24 companies based on
energy transition readiness. CDP rankings appear to be related to five year
oil and gas company equity returns.
Equity returns are tied to energy transition readiness Concerns over LNG supply
-25.0%
-15.0%
-5.0%
5.0%
15.0%
25.0%
6 8 10 12 14 16
5-YearShareholderReturn
CDP Average Energy Transition Readiness Ranking
IOCs Independents
• Record gas production in the US has caused gas prices to decline despite
low inventories and growing demand. US natural gas prices are expected to
remain under pressure from increasing production of associated gas over
the coming years.
• Driven by strong global supply and mild winter demand, Asian LNG prices
declined throughout 1Q19, reaching their lowest level in three years. Asian
spot LNG prices slipped below European gas benchmarks for the first time
since 2015, resulting in LNG cargo diversions to Europe.
• Concerns over LNG supply loom as planned capacity additions outpace
demand growth in Asia. Chinese LNG demand growth, which was the key
driver in rebalancing the LNG market over the past few years, is expected
to slow in 2019.
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
-
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
02/07/2018 02/09/2018 02/11/2018 02/01/2019 02/03/2019
p/therm
$/mmbtu
Henry Hub Asia LNG FOB UK NBP - right hand axis
8. Brent futures
Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 8
Brent futures rose in line with spot
prices throughout 1Q19.
Liquidity of the futures curve falls
rapidly beyond 2020. Therefore, the
views of banks/brokers and
consultants are considered more
appropriate sources of information to
be used in the determination of a
long-term price assumption.
1Q19 futures data is effective as of
20 March 2019.
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
Jan-2018 Jan-2019 Jan-2020 Jan-2021 Jan-2022 Jan-2023 Jan-2024
$/bbl
Historical Brent Brent futures - 4Q18 Brent futures - 1Q19
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
9. Oil price outlook
Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 9
For both benchmarks, consultants
(on average) forecast marginally
higher oil prices throughout the
period.
Consultants focus primarily on the analysis
of a long-term sustainable oil price, while
the banks/brokers balance their views on
the basis of current market conditions.
The increase in oil prices throughout 1Q19
has directly impacted near term forecasts.
In the long term, we note high relative
forecasting uncertainty given the proven
ability of identified risk factors to move the
price significantly in a short period of time.
Consultants’ forecasts result in averages of
US$77.1/bbl and US$72.5/bbl vs.
banks’/brokers’ averages of US$68.6/bbl
and US$63.9/bbl for Brent and WTI,
respectively in 2023.
This data is effective as of 19 March 2019.
Brent:
Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges
and averages
WTI:
Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges
and averages
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports, consensus economics, consultants’ website
US$68.6 US$77.1 US$63.9 US$72.5Brent:
Average price
forecast in 2023
WTI:
Average price
forecast in 2023
Bank/broker Bank/brokerConsultants Consultants
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$perbarrel
Bank/broker range Consultants range
Bank/broker average Consultants average
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$perbarrel
Bank/broker range Consultants range
Bank/broker average Consultants average
10. Gas price outlook
Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 10
Excluding 2019 Henry Hub prices,
consultants forecast (on average)
higher prices than banks/ brokers
Banks’ and brokers’ view of the outlook for
Henry Hub is essentially flat throughout the
forecast period. In contrast, consultants’
estimates reflect a steady upward trend,
reflecting a view on demand growth and
production economics.
The views of both banks/brokers and
consultants have been adversely impacted
by the reduction in gas prices noted in
1Q19.
Estimates for UK NBP are scarce with only
five and three data points available from
banks/brokers and consultants,
respectively.
This data is effective as of 19 March 2019.
Henry Hub:
Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges
and averages
UK NBP:
Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges and
averages
US$3.0 US$3.4 GBp51.0 GBp58.7Henry Hub:
Average price
forecast in 2023
UK NBP:
Average price
forecast in 2023
Bank/broker Consultants Bank/broker Consultants
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports, consensus economics, consultants’ website
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
$permmbtu
Bank/broker range Consultants range
Bank/broker average Consultants average
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
GBppertherm
Bank/broker range Consultants range
Bank/broker average Consultants average
11. Appendix
Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 11
Brent oil price estimates
This data is effective as of 19 March 2019
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports
Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics
Bank/broker 2019 (US$/bbl) 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$//bbl)
High 73.3 80.0 90.0 83.0 86.0
Average 66.1 69.2 71.0 69.7 68.6
Median 65.8 70.0 70.0 70.0 67.5
Low 59.0 55.7 60.0 60.0 60.0
Consultant 2019 (US$/bbl) 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$//bbl)
High 75.1 77.1 80.5 82.5 86.6
Average 67.8 70.3 72.6 74.6 77.1
Median 64.9 68.5 71.5 73.7 75.5
Low 64.5 66.0 67.4 69.6 72.2
12. Appendix
Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 12
WTI oil price estimates
This data is effective as of 19 March 2019
Bank/broker 2019 (US$/bbl) 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$//bbl)
High 67.0 74.0 88.0 79.0 82.0
Average 57.7 61.8 65.3 64.2 63.9
Median 56.9 60.5 63.0 63.9 64.0
Low 48.8 52.7 52.0 53.5 53.5
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports
Consultant 2019 (US$/bbl) 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$//bbl)
High 69.6 73.4 77.0 78.2 81.9
Average 60.4 64.9 68.0 70.2 72.5
Median 57.5 63.8 67.6 71.4 72.8
Low 55.5 57.2 58.2 59.7 62.0
Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics
13. Appendix
Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 13
Henry Hub gas price estimates
This data is effective as of 19 March 2019
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports
* Brokers have reported figures in $/mcf. We have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu
Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics
Bank/broker 2019 (US$/MMBtu) 2020 (US$/MMBtu) 2021 (US$/MMBtu) 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu)
High 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.3
Average 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0
Median 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0
Low 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7
Consultant 2019 (US$/MMBtu) 2020 (US$/MMBtu) 2021 (US$/MMBtu) 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu)
High 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.6
Average 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4
Median 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.6
Low 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1
14. Appendix
Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 14
NBP gas price estimates
This data is effective as of 19 March 2019
Bank/broker 2019 (GBp/therm) 2020 (GBp/therm) 2021 (GBp/therm) 2022 (GBp/therm) 2023 (GBp/therm)
High 55.0 54.0 54.0 54.0 54.0
Average 50.8 51.0 50.8 51.5 51.0
Median 50.8 50.0 50.0 51.5 51.0
Low 47.0 49.9 48.0 49.0 48.0
Consultant 2019 (GBp/therm) 2020 (GBp/therm) 2021 (GBp/therm) 2022 (GBp/therm) 2023 (GBp/therm)
High 63.8 60.8 60.0 61.2 62.4
Average 59.3 57.8 57.2 57.6 58.7
Median 60.0 60.0 59.6 58.5 58.5
Low 54.2 52.7 52.1 53.2 55.2
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports
* A bank/broker has reported figures in $/mcf. We have used exchange rate forecast by Jefferies for USD to GBP conversion and an mcf to mmbtu conversion ratio of 1.037
Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics
* Oxford Economics has reported figures in US$/MMBtu. We have used exchange rate forecast by Oxford Economics from USD to GBP conversion
** GLJ has reported figures in US$/MMBtu. We have used exchange rate forecast by GLJ for USD to GBP conversion
15. Key contacts
Q2 | April 2019 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 15
Important notice
Price outlook data included in this publication is effective as of 19 March 2019. Given the rapidly evolving nature of
the market and views of market participants, analysis can become quickly outdated. It should be noted that our
analysis is not for the purpose of providing an independent view of the outlook for oil and gas prices. Instead, we are
collating the views of market participants.
Price outlook data should not be applied mechanistically. Instead, careful consideration should be given to the purpose
of any value assessment with price forecasts assessed in the context of the other key assumptions, such as
resources/reserves classification, production rates, discount rates and cost escalation rates together with an
appreciation of the key sensitivities in any such analysis.
Jeff Williams
EY Global Oil & Gas
Advisory Leader
+1 713 750 5916
Gary Donald
EY Global Oil & Gas
Assurance Leader
+44 20 7951 751
Derek Leith
EY Global Oil & Gas
Tax Leader
+44 12 2465 3246
Andy Brogan
EY Global Oil & Gas
Leader
+44 20 7951 7009