- The global economy slowed in the first half of 2019 as manufacturing orders declined and trade growth weakened due to the US-China trade war. - Despite these headwinds, global markets posted positive returns in the first half led by developed market equities. Both stocks and bonds rose together due to diverging views on future central bank actions. - Key investment themes for the second half include ongoing central bank easing, uncertainty around the US-China trade war, potential for an earnings recession, and safe haven assets like gold continuing to benefit from rising global risks.