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EY Price Point:
global oil and gas
market outlook
Q1 | 6 January 2020
Q1 overview
The fourth quarter saw a steady climb in oil prices. OPEC and Russia (OPEC +) production cuts and weak North American output growth
contributed to a significant, but likely temporary, shift from inventory build to inventory draw. OPEC + production constraint is to become
increasingly necessary in 2020 as new output comes online in Norway and Brazil. The market continues to question the sustainability of
OPEC + agreeing to concede its output to support oil prices and, indirectly and inadvertently, aid the economics of unconventional oil in
North America.
An optimum range in which prices are high enough to meet the needs of OPEC + nations, but low enough to discourage US shale
investment continues to prove elusive.
Notwithstanding optimism as to the importance of natural gas in the future energy mix, the economics of gas-focused upstream assets
and LNG infrastructure are currently under strain.
Gary Donald
EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader
gdonald@uk.ey.com
Andy Brogan
EY Global Oil & Gas Leader
abrogan@uk.ey.com
Q1 | January 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 2
Q1 theme
The theme for this quarter is inorganic. Although prices climbed in the fourth quarter as the balance of supply and demand tilted in favour
of demand, OPEC + restraint was fundamental.
The market is conscious of downside pressures that loom. OPEC + has announced production cuts through to the end of the first quarter.
Beyond the first quarter, there is a risk that OPEC + grows weary of supporting the market and reverts to a strategy of growing
production, protecting market share and placing pressure on the economics of unconventional producers. Production growth in Brazil and
Norway has the potential to consume a significant portion of demand growth expected in 2020. Whether, or the extent to which, US shale
output growth continues despite escalating financial strain across the E&P sector will be key in determining whether OPEC + cuts will be
sufficient to balance the market in 2020.
In the longer-term, focus remains on the energy mix of the future and its impact on the demand for petroleum products. A number of
significant uncertainties remain, including electric vehicle (EV) penetration. EY’s ‘Fueling the Future’ analyzes the outlook under four
distinct scenarios. The analysis shows that an inflection point in EV penetration is required by 2022 if the terms of the Paris Accord are to
be met.
• Will (slowing) demand growth and OPEC + production cuts be enough to offset output growth driven
by the US, Norway and Brazil?
• How much will International Maritime Organization (IMO) 2020 impact the demand for refined
products and crude oil?
• When will vehicle electrification have a material impact on oil demand, oil prices and upstream asset
returns?
?
Q1 | January 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 3
Q1 trends
Q1 | January 2020Page 4
Oil markets rely on restraint of OPEC +
As we closed the year, OPEC + agreed (again) to curtail output
to support prices, acknowledging that demand growth alone will
not be sufficient to offset the impact of expected production
growth in Norway, Brazil and the US. Time will tell if the policy is
effective or sustainable.
Vehicle electrification is looming but not yet
impactful
The sector is mindful of the demand side risk associated with
EV penetration.
A key uncertainty in determining the outlook for demand of
petroleum products is the rate at which EV’s penetrate the
market. ‘Fueling the Future, available at ey.com, explores the
range of possibilities.
IMO 2020 causes price shocks despite being known
since 2016
High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO) prices fell more than 20% in 2019
ahead of IMO 2020. Despite the terms of IMO 2020 being
known since 2016, prices fell dramatically in the third quarter.
Uncertainties remain, including the degree of compliance and
uptake of scrubber installation.
Depressed US gas prices have triggered asset impairments and
rising US LNG exports are not expected to significantly drive
domestic gas prices upward in the short to medium term.
Low gas prices trigger asset impairments
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Market fundamentals
Q1 | January 2020Page 5
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Source: IEA
• Brent and WTI averaged US$63 and US$56 per bbl, respectively, during the fourth
quarter. Although, on average, prices in the fourth quarter were largely consistent with
those realized in the third quarter, oil prices rose steadily throughout December
following the decision of OPEC + to extend production cuts. Further support was
provided by the US and China signing a temporary trade deal.
• IEA forecasts demand growth of just 1.2 million barrels per day (mpbd) in 2020 while
production growth is expected from Norway and Brazil. A key question is the extent to
which US independents can sustain output growth despite calls to reign in capital
spending.
• Demand concerns driven by an economic slowdown continue to weigh on prices,
although a “phase-1” trade deal between the US and China did provide temporary
support to prices in December.
• Oil markets ended the year undersupplied by approximately
1 mpbd.
• Steady demand growth combined with significant reductions in OPEC output more
than offset the continued, but slowing, growth in North American output.
• North American production growth continues unabated despite the market
continually questioning its ability to sustain as US independents feel financial
strain.
• Demand growth is slowing and production growth is expected from regions
outside of the US. The resilience of US shale may just be the decisive factor in the
2020 supply and demand balance.
OPEC + restraint supports minor, but meaningful, price climb Supply and demand: temporary(?) shift to undersupply
(3.5)
(3.0)
(2.5)
(2.0)
(1.5)
(1.0)
(0.5)
-
0.5
1.0
1.5
Starting
balance
Demand
growth
OPEC North America Other Ending
balance
millionbarrelsperday
Movement to oversupply
Movement to undersupply
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
US$/bbl
Brent
WTI
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Market fundamentals
Q1 | January 2020Page 6
EV penetration: how steep will the adoption curve be?
Source: EV Volumes.com and EY Analysis
• Capital markets anticipate an eventual transition to vehicle electrification with an
adverse impact on oil demand, oil prices and asset returns.
• EY ‘Fueling the Future’ models the outlook for the energy sector under four scenarios,
including ‘Meet me in Paris’, the Paris Accord-compliant scenario. Vehicle
electrification is identified as a key disruptor in our analysis.
• EV market penetration, measured as EV sales as a percentage of road vehicle sales,
remains low at 2% and 0.5% in the US and China, respectively. Subsidy reduction
has led to slowing adoption. At current, 0% and 0.5% growth is expected in the US
and China in 2020, respectively.
• Compliance with the Paris Accord will require an inflection point to occur soon. We
estimate that meeting the goals of the Paris Accord will require EVs to capture more
than half the market before the end of the next decade. Other scenarios are possible,
and potentially more likely, based on penetration to date.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2010 2015 2020 2025
United States China
Fueling the Future-Meet me in Paris Fueling the Future-The Long Goodbye
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
OPEC + extends production cuts, conceding further market share
• In December, OPEC + decided to extend and expand production cuts with a further
0.5 mbpd of supply to be withdrawn from the market until March 2020.
• There is no certainty that 0.5 mpbd will be enough. The IEA estimates oil demand
growth of 1.2 mpbd in 2020. Although relatively healthy growth, there is potential for it
to be exceeded by supply growth in the US, Norway and Brazil alone.
• Repeated efforts by OPEC + to stabilize the market have had a significant adverse
impact on its market share. Over time, the sustainability of its strategy must be
questioned. Growing fiscal demands are bound to eventually induce individual OPEC
members to resist further cuts despite their importance in balancing oil markets.
Source: IEA
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
38%
39%
40%
2016 2017 2018 2019
OPECoilmarketshare
Market fundamentals
Q1 | January 2020Page 7
Depressed natural gas prices triggering impairments
Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook and EY analysis
• Growth in US gas output has restrained domestic spot prices for some time now.
Henry Hub prices averaged $2.6/mmbtu in 2019 versus $3.2/mmbtu in 2018, being a
fall of 19%. The US EIA now expect an average Henry Hub price of $2.5/mmbtu in
2020, compared to the $4.0/mmbtu it expected for the same period a year before.
• An expectation that low US gas prices are here to stay, at least in the medium term,
resulted in significant impairment charges across the US gas sector in 2019.
• Regression analysis on US gas export volumes and domestic gas price data indicates
that domestic gas prices are sensitive to export volumes only beyond 9 quads per
annum. This analysis indicates that rising US LNG exports will not push domestic gas
prices significantly higher in the short to medium-term.
0
2
4
6
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
HenryHubgasprice($/mmbtu)
US gas exports (quads)
High economic growth
Low economic growth
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
IMO 2020 takes hold on HSFO prices
• Singapore HSFO prices fell $90/MT (23%) in 2019 ahead of IMO 2020.
• IMO 2020 reduces the maximum fuel oil Sulphur limit in the marine sector from 3.5%
to 0.5% effective from 1 January 2020. Given that the marine sector is responsible for
half of global fuel oil demand, its impact is significant and far-reaching.
• When considering the markets response, significant uncertainties remain. In the short-
term, HSFO prices have fallen reflective of lower demand. However, the extent to
which scrubbers (installations that allow for the continued use of HSFO) are installed
and the degree of compliance with the revised standards remain uncertain.
• LNG markets are watching closely as LNG is considered a viable alternative to
scrubber installation in the medium to long-term.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20
$/metrictonne
Futures - HSFO 180 cst Actuals - HSFO 180 cst
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
Brent futures
Q1 | January 2020Page 8
Brent futures increased in
December following OPEC and
Russia’s decision to extend
and expand production cuts.
However, the degree of
backwardation continues to
steepen as demand concerns
weigh on the future outlook.
Futures data is effective as of
16 December 2019.
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
US$/bbl
Historical Brent
Brent futures - December 2019
Brent futures - June 2019
Brent futures - December 2018
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Q1 | January 2020Page 9
Oil price outlook
For both benchmarks, consultants (on
average) forecast higher oil prices
throughout the period.
Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a long-
term sustainable oil price, while the banks and
brokers balance their views on the basis of current
market conditions. As a result, bank and broker
estimates are not available beyond 2023.
EY analysis does not include estimates released by
IEA in its 2019 World Economic Outlook as forecasts
commence from 2025.
In the long-term, we note high relative forecasting
uncertainty given the proven ability of identified risk
factors to move the price significantly in a short period
of time.
Consultants’ forecasts result in averages of
US$71.7/bbl and US$67.1/bbl for Brent and WTI,
respectively, in 2024.
This data is effective as of 16 December 2019.
Brent:
Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges and averages
WTI:
Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges
and averages
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports, consensus economics, consultants’ website
US$71.7 US$67.1Brent:
Average price per bbl
forecast in 2024
WTI:
Average price per bbl
forecast in 2024
Consultants Consultants
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
$perbarrel
Bank/Broker range Consultants range
Bank/Broker average Consultants average
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
$perbarrel
Bank/Broker range Consultants range
Bank/Broker average Consultants average
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Q1 | January 2020Page 10
Gas price outlook
For both benchmarks, consultants (on
average) forecast higher gas prices
throughout the period.
Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a long-
term sustainable gas price, whilst the banks and
brokers balance their views on the basis of current
market conditions. As a result, bank and broker
estimates are not available beyond 2023.
EY analysis does not include estimates released by
IEA in its 2019 World Economic Outlook (WEO) as
forecasts commence from 2025.
NBP price estimates are scarce with only three
bank/broker and three consultant forecasts release.
Beyond 2021, only a single bank/broker estimate is
available.
This data is effective as of 16 December 2019.
Henry Hub:
Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges and averages
UK NBP:
Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges and averages
US$3.3 GBp51.8Henry Hub:
Average price per mmbtu
forecast in 2024
UK NBP:
Average price per therm
forecast in 2024
Consultants Consultants
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports, consensus economics, consultants’ website
2.0
2.3
2.5
2.8
3.0
3.3
3.5
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
$permmbtu
Bank/Broker range Consultants range
Bank/Broker average Consultants average
35
40
45
50
55
60
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
GBppertherm
Bank/Broker range Consultants range
Bank/Broker average Consultants average
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Appendix
Q1 | January 2020Page 11
Brent oil price estimates
This data is effective as of 16 December 2019.
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports
Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics
Bank/broker 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl)
High 73.0 72.5 71.6 71.5
Average 62.1 62.5 64.5 64.8
Median 61.9 62.0 65.0 65.0
Low 53.0 53.0 55.0 58.0
Consultant 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl)
High 68.0 71.0 73.5 75.0 76.5
Average 64.4 67.4 68.7 70.0 71.7
Median 64.6 67.5 69.5 70.9 72.4
Low 60.5 63.5 62.2 63.1 65.4
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Appendix
Q1 | January 2020Page 12
WTI oil price estimates
This data is effective as of 16 December 2019.
Bank/broker 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl)
High 63.0 68.5 63.0 65.0
Average 56.6 57.3 56.8 59.0
Median 55.4 55.5 55.0 59.5
Low 54.0 52.3 50.0 53.0
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports
Consultant 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl)
High 62.0 65.0 67.6 70.0 72.5
Average 58.8 62.2 63.8 65.3 67.1
Median 60.0 64.4 66.9 68.3 69.7
Low 55.0 54.9 53.8 54.5 56.5
Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Appendix
Q1 | January 2020Page 13
Henry Hub gas price estimates
This data is effective as of 16 December 2019.
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports
* Where brokers have reported figures in $/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu.
Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics
Bank/broker 2020 (US$/MMBtu) 2021 (US$/MMBtu) 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu)
High 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.0
Average 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7
Median 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7
Low 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Consultant 2020 (US$/MMBtu) 2021 (US$/MMBtu) 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu)
High 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.4
Average 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3
Median 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3
Low 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Appendix
Q1 | January 2020Page 14
NBP gas price estimates
This data is effective as of 16 December 2019.
Bank/broker 2020 (GBp/therm) 2021 (GBp/therm) 2022 (GBp/therm) 2023 (GBp/therm) 2024 (GBp/therm)
High 47.0 47.0 47.0 47.0
Average 45.0 46.6 47.0 47.0
Median 45.0 46.9 47.0 47.0
Low 43.1 46.0 47.0 47.0
Consultant 2020 (GBp/therm) 2021 (GBp/therm) 2022 (GBp/therm) 2023 (GBp/therm) 2024 (GBp/therm)
High 50.8 51.9 53.8 55.8 57.7
Average 47.4 48.4 48.8 50.3 51.8
Median 50.0 50.0 51.0 52.0 53.1
Low 41.4 43.2 41.6 43.1 44.7
Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports
* Where brokers have reported figures in $/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu and the broker’s forecasted FX rate.
Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics
* Where consultants have reported figures in US$/MMBtu, we have used the particular consultant’s forecast FX rate for the purpose of our conversion.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Key contacts
Q1 | January 2020Page 15
Important notice
Price outlook data included in this publication is effective as of 16 December 2019. Given the rapidly evolving nature of the market and views of
market participants, analysis can become quickly outdated. It should be noted that EY analysis is not for the purpose of providing an independent
view of the outlook for oil and gas prices. Instead, EY are collating the views of market participants.
Price outlook data should not be applied mechanistically. Instead, careful consideration should be given to the purpose of any value assessment
with price forecasts assessed in the context of the other key assumptions, such as resources and reserves classification, production rates, discount
rates and cost escalation rates together with an appreciation of the key sensitivities in any such analysis.
Jeff Williams
EY Global Oil & Gas Advisory Leader
+ 1 713 750 5916
Gary Donald
EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance
Leader
+ 44 20 7951 751
Derek Leith
EY Global Oil & Gas Tax
Leader
+ 44 12 2465 3246
Andy Brogan
EY Global Oil & Gas Leader
+ 44 20 7951 7009
John Hartung
EY Global Oil & Gas TAS Leader
+ 1 713 751 2114
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
EY | Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory
About EY
EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and
advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver
help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in
economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders
who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders.
In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working
world for our people, for our clients and for our communities.
EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or
more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited,
each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global
Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide
services to clients. Information about how EY collects and
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have under data protection legislation is available via
ey.com/privacy. For more information about our organization,
please visit ey.com.
How EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector can help your business
The oil and gas sector is constantly changing. Increasingly
uncertain energy policies, geopolitical complexities, cost
management and climate change all present significant
challenges. EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector supports a global
network of more than 10,000 oil and gas professionals with
extensive experience in providing assurance, tax, transaction
and advisory services across the upstream, midstream,
downstream and oil field subsectors. The Sector team works
to anticipate market trends, execute the mobility of our global
resources and articulate points of view on relevant sector
issues. With our deep sector focus, we can help your
organization drive down costs and compete more effectively.
© 2020 EYGM Limited.
All Rights Reserved.
EYG no. 000046-20Gbl
BMC Agency
GA 1010725
ED None
This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not
intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, or other professional advice. Please
refer to your advisors for specific advice.
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EY Q1 2020 price point

  • 1. EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Q1 | 6 January 2020
  • 2. Q1 overview The fourth quarter saw a steady climb in oil prices. OPEC and Russia (OPEC +) production cuts and weak North American output growth contributed to a significant, but likely temporary, shift from inventory build to inventory draw. OPEC + production constraint is to become increasingly necessary in 2020 as new output comes online in Norway and Brazil. The market continues to question the sustainability of OPEC + agreeing to concede its output to support oil prices and, indirectly and inadvertently, aid the economics of unconventional oil in North America. An optimum range in which prices are high enough to meet the needs of OPEC + nations, but low enough to discourage US shale investment continues to prove elusive. Notwithstanding optimism as to the importance of natural gas in the future energy mix, the economics of gas-focused upstream assets and LNG infrastructure are currently under strain. Gary Donald EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader gdonald@uk.ey.com Andy Brogan EY Global Oil & Gas Leader abrogan@uk.ey.com Q1 | January 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 2
  • 3. Q1 theme The theme for this quarter is inorganic. Although prices climbed in the fourth quarter as the balance of supply and demand tilted in favour of demand, OPEC + restraint was fundamental. The market is conscious of downside pressures that loom. OPEC + has announced production cuts through to the end of the first quarter. Beyond the first quarter, there is a risk that OPEC + grows weary of supporting the market and reverts to a strategy of growing production, protecting market share and placing pressure on the economics of unconventional producers. Production growth in Brazil and Norway has the potential to consume a significant portion of demand growth expected in 2020. Whether, or the extent to which, US shale output growth continues despite escalating financial strain across the E&P sector will be key in determining whether OPEC + cuts will be sufficient to balance the market in 2020. In the longer-term, focus remains on the energy mix of the future and its impact on the demand for petroleum products. A number of significant uncertainties remain, including electric vehicle (EV) penetration. EY’s ‘Fueling the Future’ analyzes the outlook under four distinct scenarios. The analysis shows that an inflection point in EV penetration is required by 2022 if the terms of the Paris Accord are to be met. • Will (slowing) demand growth and OPEC + production cuts be enough to offset output growth driven by the US, Norway and Brazil? • How much will International Maritime Organization (IMO) 2020 impact the demand for refined products and crude oil? • When will vehicle electrification have a material impact on oil demand, oil prices and upstream asset returns? ? Q1 | January 2020 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookPage 3
  • 4. Q1 trends Q1 | January 2020Page 4 Oil markets rely on restraint of OPEC + As we closed the year, OPEC + agreed (again) to curtail output to support prices, acknowledging that demand growth alone will not be sufficient to offset the impact of expected production growth in Norway, Brazil and the US. Time will tell if the policy is effective or sustainable. Vehicle electrification is looming but not yet impactful The sector is mindful of the demand side risk associated with EV penetration. A key uncertainty in determining the outlook for demand of petroleum products is the rate at which EV’s penetrate the market. ‘Fueling the Future, available at ey.com, explores the range of possibilities. IMO 2020 causes price shocks despite being known since 2016 High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HSFO) prices fell more than 20% in 2019 ahead of IMO 2020. Despite the terms of IMO 2020 being known since 2016, prices fell dramatically in the third quarter. Uncertainties remain, including the degree of compliance and uptake of scrubber installation. Depressed US gas prices have triggered asset impairments and rising US LNG exports are not expected to significantly drive domestic gas prices upward in the short to medium term. Low gas prices trigger asset impairments EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
  • 5. Market fundamentals Q1 | January 2020Page 5 Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream Source: IEA • Brent and WTI averaged US$63 and US$56 per bbl, respectively, during the fourth quarter. Although, on average, prices in the fourth quarter were largely consistent with those realized in the third quarter, oil prices rose steadily throughout December following the decision of OPEC + to extend production cuts. Further support was provided by the US and China signing a temporary trade deal. • IEA forecasts demand growth of just 1.2 million barrels per day (mpbd) in 2020 while production growth is expected from Norway and Brazil. A key question is the extent to which US independents can sustain output growth despite calls to reign in capital spending. • Demand concerns driven by an economic slowdown continue to weigh on prices, although a “phase-1” trade deal between the US and China did provide temporary support to prices in December. • Oil markets ended the year undersupplied by approximately 1 mpbd. • Steady demand growth combined with significant reductions in OPEC output more than offset the continued, but slowing, growth in North American output. • North American production growth continues unabated despite the market continually questioning its ability to sustain as US independents feel financial strain. • Demand growth is slowing and production growth is expected from regions outside of the US. The resilience of US shale may just be the decisive factor in the 2020 supply and demand balance. OPEC + restraint supports minor, but meaningful, price climb Supply and demand: temporary(?) shift to undersupply (3.5) (3.0) (2.5) (2.0) (1.5) (1.0) (0.5) - 0.5 1.0 1.5 Starting balance Demand growth OPEC North America Other Ending balance millionbarrelsperday Movement to oversupply Movement to undersupply 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 US$/bbl Brent WTI EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
  • 6. Market fundamentals Q1 | January 2020Page 6 EV penetration: how steep will the adoption curve be? Source: EV Volumes.com and EY Analysis • Capital markets anticipate an eventual transition to vehicle electrification with an adverse impact on oil demand, oil prices and asset returns. • EY ‘Fueling the Future’ models the outlook for the energy sector under four scenarios, including ‘Meet me in Paris’, the Paris Accord-compliant scenario. Vehicle electrification is identified as a key disruptor in our analysis. • EV market penetration, measured as EV sales as a percentage of road vehicle sales, remains low at 2% and 0.5% in the US and China, respectively. Subsidy reduction has led to slowing adoption. At current, 0% and 0.5% growth is expected in the US and China in 2020, respectively. • Compliance with the Paris Accord will require an inflection point to occur soon. We estimate that meeting the goals of the Paris Accord will require EVs to capture more than half the market before the end of the next decade. Other scenarios are possible, and potentially more likely, based on penetration to date. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2010 2015 2020 2025 United States China Fueling the Future-Meet me in Paris Fueling the Future-The Long Goodbye EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook OPEC + extends production cuts, conceding further market share • In December, OPEC + decided to extend and expand production cuts with a further 0.5 mbpd of supply to be withdrawn from the market until March 2020. • There is no certainty that 0.5 mpbd will be enough. The IEA estimates oil demand growth of 1.2 mpbd in 2020. Although relatively healthy growth, there is potential for it to be exceeded by supply growth in the US, Norway and Brazil alone. • Repeated efforts by OPEC + to stabilize the market have had a significant adverse impact on its market share. Over time, the sustainability of its strategy must be questioned. Growing fiscal demands are bound to eventually induce individual OPEC members to resist further cuts despite their importance in balancing oil markets. Source: IEA 33% 34% 35% 36% 37% 38% 39% 40% 2016 2017 2018 2019 OPECoilmarketshare
  • 7. Market fundamentals Q1 | January 2020Page 7 Depressed natural gas prices triggering impairments Source: US EIA Annual Energy Outlook and EY analysis • Growth in US gas output has restrained domestic spot prices for some time now. Henry Hub prices averaged $2.6/mmbtu in 2019 versus $3.2/mmbtu in 2018, being a fall of 19%. The US EIA now expect an average Henry Hub price of $2.5/mmbtu in 2020, compared to the $4.0/mmbtu it expected for the same period a year before. • An expectation that low US gas prices are here to stay, at least in the medium term, resulted in significant impairment charges across the US gas sector in 2019. • Regression analysis on US gas export volumes and domestic gas price data indicates that domestic gas prices are sensitive to export volumes only beyond 9 quads per annum. This analysis indicates that rising US LNG exports will not push domestic gas prices significantly higher in the short to medium-term. 0 2 4 6 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 HenryHubgasprice($/mmbtu) US gas exports (quads) High economic growth Low economic growth EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook IMO 2020 takes hold on HSFO prices • Singapore HSFO prices fell $90/MT (23%) in 2019 ahead of IMO 2020. • IMO 2020 reduces the maximum fuel oil Sulphur limit in the marine sector from 3.5% to 0.5% effective from 1 January 2020. Given that the marine sector is responsible for half of global fuel oil demand, its impact is significant and far-reaching. • When considering the markets response, significant uncertainties remain. In the short- term, HSFO prices have fallen reflective of lower demand. However, the extent to which scrubbers (installations that allow for the continued use of HSFO) are installed and the degree of compliance with the revised standards remain uncertain. • LNG markets are watching closely as LNG is considered a viable alternative to scrubber installation in the medium to long-term. 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 $/metrictonne Futures - HSFO 180 cst Actuals - HSFO 180 cst Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream
  • 8. Brent futures Q1 | January 2020Page 8 Brent futures increased in December following OPEC and Russia’s decision to extend and expand production cuts. However, the degree of backwardation continues to steepen as demand concerns weigh on the future outlook. Futures data is effective as of 16 December 2019. Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 US$/bbl Historical Brent Brent futures - December 2019 Brent futures - June 2019 Brent futures - December 2018 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
  • 9. Q1 | January 2020Page 9 Oil price outlook For both benchmarks, consultants (on average) forecast higher oil prices throughout the period. Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a long- term sustainable oil price, while the banks and brokers balance their views on the basis of current market conditions. As a result, bank and broker estimates are not available beyond 2023. EY analysis does not include estimates released by IEA in its 2019 World Economic Outlook as forecasts commence from 2025. In the long-term, we note high relative forecasting uncertainty given the proven ability of identified risk factors to move the price significantly in a short period of time. Consultants’ forecasts result in averages of US$71.7/bbl and US$67.1/bbl for Brent and WTI, respectively, in 2024. This data is effective as of 16 December 2019. Brent: Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges and averages WTI: Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges and averages Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports, consensus economics, consultants’ website US$71.7 US$67.1Brent: Average price per bbl forecast in 2024 WTI: Average price per bbl forecast in 2024 Consultants Consultants 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 $perbarrel Bank/Broker range Consultants range Bank/Broker average Consultants average 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 $perbarrel Bank/Broker range Consultants range Bank/Broker average Consultants average EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
  • 10. Q1 | January 2020Page 10 Gas price outlook For both benchmarks, consultants (on average) forecast higher gas prices throughout the period. Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a long- term sustainable gas price, whilst the banks and brokers balance their views on the basis of current market conditions. As a result, bank and broker estimates are not available beyond 2023. EY analysis does not include estimates released by IEA in its 2019 World Economic Outlook (WEO) as forecasts commence from 2025. NBP price estimates are scarce with only three bank/broker and three consultant forecasts release. Beyond 2021, only a single bank/broker estimate is available. This data is effective as of 16 December 2019. Henry Hub: Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges and averages UK NBP: Brokers’ and consultants’ price estimates, ranges and averages US$3.3 GBp51.8Henry Hub: Average price per mmbtu forecast in 2024 UK NBP: Average price per therm forecast in 2024 Consultants Consultants Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports, consensus economics, consultants’ website 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 $permmbtu Bank/Broker range Consultants range Bank/Broker average Consultants average 35 40 45 50 55 60 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 GBppertherm Bank/Broker range Consultants range Bank/Broker average Consultants average EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
  • 11. Appendix Q1 | January 2020Page 11 Brent oil price estimates This data is effective as of 16 December 2019. Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics Bank/broker 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) High 73.0 72.5 71.6 71.5 Average 62.1 62.5 64.5 64.8 Median 61.9 62.0 65.0 65.0 Low 53.0 53.0 55.0 58.0 Consultant 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) High 68.0 71.0 73.5 75.0 76.5 Average 64.4 67.4 68.7 70.0 71.7 Median 64.6 67.5 69.5 70.9 72.4 Low 60.5 63.5 62.2 63.1 65.4 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
  • 12. Appendix Q1 | January 2020Page 12 WTI oil price estimates This data is effective as of 16 December 2019. Bank/broker 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) High 63.0 68.5 63.0 65.0 Average 56.6 57.3 56.8 59.0 Median 55.4 55.5 55.0 59.5 Low 54.0 52.3 50.0 53.0 Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports Consultant 2020 (US$/bbl) 2021 (US$/bbl) 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) High 62.0 65.0 67.6 70.0 72.5 Average 58.8 62.2 63.8 65.3 67.1 Median 60.0 64.4 66.9 68.3 69.7 Low 55.0 54.9 53.8 54.5 56.5 Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
  • 13. Appendix Q1 | January 2020Page 13 Henry Hub gas price estimates This data is effective as of 16 December 2019. Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports * Where brokers have reported figures in $/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu. Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics Bank/broker 2020 (US$/MMBtu) 2021 (US$/MMBtu) 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu) High 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.0 Average 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 Median 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 Low 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Consultant 2020 (US$/MMBtu) 2021 (US$/MMBtu) 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu) High 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 Average 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.3 Median 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.3 Low 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
  • 14. Appendix Q1 | January 2020Page 14 NBP gas price estimates This data is effective as of 16 December 2019. Bank/broker 2020 (GBp/therm) 2021 (GBp/therm) 2022 (GBp/therm) 2023 (GBp/therm) 2024 (GBp/therm) High 47.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 Average 45.0 46.6 47.0 47.0 Median 45.0 46.9 47.0 47.0 Low 43.1 46.0 47.0 47.0 Consultant 2020 (GBp/therm) 2021 (GBp/therm) 2022 (GBp/therm) 2023 (GBp/therm) 2024 (GBp/therm) High 50.8 51.9 53.8 55.8 57.7 Average 47.4 48.4 48.8 50.3 51.8 Median 50.0 50.0 51.0 52.0 53.1 Low 41.4 43.2 41.6 43.1 44.7 Source: Bloomberg, banks’/brokers’ reports * Where brokers have reported figures in $/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu and the broker’s forecasted FX rate. Source: Consultants’ websites, Oxford Economics * Where consultants have reported figures in US$/MMBtu, we have used the particular consultant’s forecast FX rate for the purpose of our conversion. EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
  • 15. Key contacts Q1 | January 2020Page 15 Important notice Price outlook data included in this publication is effective as of 16 December 2019. Given the rapidly evolving nature of the market and views of market participants, analysis can become quickly outdated. It should be noted that EY analysis is not for the purpose of providing an independent view of the outlook for oil and gas prices. Instead, EY are collating the views of market participants. Price outlook data should not be applied mechanistically. Instead, careful consideration should be given to the purpose of any value assessment with price forecasts assessed in the context of the other key assumptions, such as resources and reserves classification, production rates, discount rates and cost escalation rates together with an appreciation of the key sensitivities in any such analysis. Jeff Williams EY Global Oil & Gas Advisory Leader + 1 713 750 5916 Gary Donald EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader + 44 20 7951 751 Derek Leith EY Global Oil & Gas Tax Leader + 44 12 2465 3246 Andy Brogan EY Global Oil & Gas Leader + 44 20 7951 7009 John Hartung EY Global Oil & Gas TAS Leader + 1 713 751 2114 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
  • 16. EY | Assurance | Tax | Transactions | Advisory About EY EY is a global leader in assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services. The insights and quality services we deliver help build trust and confidence in the capital markets and in economies the world over. We develop outstanding leaders who team to deliver on our promises to all of our stakeholders. In so doing, we play a critical role in building a better working world for our people, for our clients and for our communities. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. Information about how EY collects and uses personal data and a description of the rights individuals have under data protection legislation is available via ey.com/privacy. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. How EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector can help your business The oil and gas sector is constantly changing. Increasingly uncertain energy policies, geopolitical complexities, cost management and climate change all present significant challenges. EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector supports a global network of more than 10,000 oil and gas professionals with extensive experience in providing assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services across the upstream, midstream, downstream and oil field subsectors. The Sector team works to anticipate market trends, execute the mobility of our global resources and articulate points of view on relevant sector issues. With our deep sector focus, we can help your organization drive down costs and compete more effectively. © 2020 EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no. 000046-20Gbl BMC Agency GA 1010725 ED None This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. ey.com