The theme for this quarter is rearrangement. The loss, or potential loss, of Russian oil and gas supplies is forcing producers, refiners and traders to rethink the flow of crude oil and refined products from the wellhead to the gas pump in light of sanctions, potential sanctions and the risk of reputational damage. Countries, companies and consumers will all be searching for ways to adapt, and the outcome of the race to bring alternatives to market could alter the global energy landscape for years to come.
It is likely crude oil and LNG prices will remain elevated for some time. The process of diverting Russian oil through countries unwilling to sanction it will take time and there is little indication OPEC members are willing (or able) to increase production to make up for the loss of Russian crude. Spare capacity sat at 3.7 mbpd at the end of 2021, just above where it was in January 2020. Currently, sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian production (about 3 mbpd below their peak) could fill the gap, but political and commercial obstacles remain. At today’s prices, US shale production is attractive, but the fastest the industry has been able to grow is between 1mbpd and 2mbpd per year. The LNG infrastructure was already stretched before the war in Ukraine and there is little prosect of finding new supplies soon.
As the largest buyer of Russian energy, Europe will be the epicenter. There is a deeply embedded bias there in favor for renewable energy, and the current crisis is certain to result in an all-out effort to accelerate the build-out of wind and solar power. The capacity to add new green energy is limited though by the project pipeline and supply chains for solar panels and wind turbines, and it is likely that much of the shortfall will be made up with the new LNG infrastructure.
MAPS2018 Keynote address on EY report: Life Sciences 4.0 – Securing value thr...EY
Summary: This keynote address presented by Pamela Spence, EY Global Life Sciences Leader (pspence2@uk.ey.com) at MAPS 2018 – the annual meeting for Medical Affairs Professional Society – discusses our latest life sciences report and the industry demands for a customer-focused, data driven approach to health care. We describe the accelerating pace of change as technological advances and the escalating expectations of payers, physicians and patient consumers are combining to disrupt the life sciences business model. Data and algorithms that maximize health outcomes based on individual needs and preferences are becoming the ultimate health care consumable. To create value now and in a future that we call Life Sciences 4.0, life sciences companies must build – or participate in – interoperable information systems that collect, combine and share data. For more on our report, Progressions 2018 – Life Sciences 4.0, please go to www.ey.com/progressions
The Fourth Annual Global Mobility Study [hyperlink] by L.E.K. Consulting, Vision Mobility and CuriosityCX highlights that there is a much greater uptake of ride-hailing and other new mobility options in India and China than in mature western economies. With relatively low levels of car ownership and less developed public transport systems in these Asian countries, new mobility use is now comparable with and set to overtake traditional transport for a segment of the population.
Summary: Even in a time of high biopharma valuations, adopting an activist mentality adds rigor to capital allocation and strategic decision-making, improving not just returns to shareholders but long-term value creation. Therefore, biopharma management teams and boards of directors should proactively assess the “fitness” of their capital allocation strategies and their alignment with operational performance goals by taking an outsider’s view of the business even when times are good — and before a material stumble provides a compelling reason for an outsider to act. For more on this topic, go to http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Industries/Life-Sciences/EY-vital-signs-how-fit-is-your-capital-allocation-strategy.
Joining Forces: Interagency Collaboration and "Smart Power"Booz Allen Hamilton
Has U.S. defense, diplomacy and development adopted a “smart power” approach? In this follow-up to a 2010 report, the Government Business Council (GBC) evaluates progress towards increased interagency collaboration and how budget pressures may change foreign policy. Moderator is GBC's Associate Director of Research Erin Dian Dumbacher and Speakers include Booz Allen senior associate's Cheryl Steele and Jonathan Allen. Download the full report here: http://www.govexec.com/gbc/report/smart_power_2011/
Learn more about Smart Power: http://www.boozallen.com/smartpower
TMT Outlook 2017: A new wave of advances offer opportunities and challengesDeloitte United States
Important trends continue to shape the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) industry. What developments should you anticipate in 2017? https://subscriptions.deloitte.com/default.aspx?eventid=1323075
Booz Allen Hamilton and Market Connections: C4ISR Survey ReportBooz Allen Hamilton
Booz Allen Hamilton partnered with government market research firm Market Connections, Inc. to conduct the survey of military decision-makers. The research examined the main features of Integrated C4ISR through Enterprise Integration: engineering, operations and acquisition. Two-thirds of respondents (65 percent) agree agile incremental delivery of modular systems with integrated capabilities can enable rapid insertion of new technologies.
The Diversity Imperative: 14th Annual Australian Chief Executive StudyPwC's Strategy&
This report provides insight into the 2013 Australian Chief Executive Study findings, compares the results to the global market and identifies trends. Our analysis looks at trends relating to performance and tenure; reasons for CEO turnover; and the number of insider appointments versus outsider appointments.
MAPS2018 Keynote address on EY report: Life Sciences 4.0 – Securing value thr...EY
Summary: This keynote address presented by Pamela Spence, EY Global Life Sciences Leader (pspence2@uk.ey.com) at MAPS 2018 – the annual meeting for Medical Affairs Professional Society – discusses our latest life sciences report and the industry demands for a customer-focused, data driven approach to health care. We describe the accelerating pace of change as technological advances and the escalating expectations of payers, physicians and patient consumers are combining to disrupt the life sciences business model. Data and algorithms that maximize health outcomes based on individual needs and preferences are becoming the ultimate health care consumable. To create value now and in a future that we call Life Sciences 4.0, life sciences companies must build – or participate in – interoperable information systems that collect, combine and share data. For more on our report, Progressions 2018 – Life Sciences 4.0, please go to www.ey.com/progressions
The Fourth Annual Global Mobility Study [hyperlink] by L.E.K. Consulting, Vision Mobility and CuriosityCX highlights that there is a much greater uptake of ride-hailing and other new mobility options in India and China than in mature western economies. With relatively low levels of car ownership and less developed public transport systems in these Asian countries, new mobility use is now comparable with and set to overtake traditional transport for a segment of the population.
Summary: Even in a time of high biopharma valuations, adopting an activist mentality adds rigor to capital allocation and strategic decision-making, improving not just returns to shareholders but long-term value creation. Therefore, biopharma management teams and boards of directors should proactively assess the “fitness” of their capital allocation strategies and their alignment with operational performance goals by taking an outsider’s view of the business even when times are good — and before a material stumble provides a compelling reason for an outsider to act. For more on this topic, go to http://www.ey.com/GL/en/Industries/Life-Sciences/EY-vital-signs-how-fit-is-your-capital-allocation-strategy.
Joining Forces: Interagency Collaboration and "Smart Power"Booz Allen Hamilton
Has U.S. defense, diplomacy and development adopted a “smart power” approach? In this follow-up to a 2010 report, the Government Business Council (GBC) evaluates progress towards increased interagency collaboration and how budget pressures may change foreign policy. Moderator is GBC's Associate Director of Research Erin Dian Dumbacher and Speakers include Booz Allen senior associate's Cheryl Steele and Jonathan Allen. Download the full report here: http://www.govexec.com/gbc/report/smart_power_2011/
Learn more about Smart Power: http://www.boozallen.com/smartpower
TMT Outlook 2017: A new wave of advances offer opportunities and challengesDeloitte United States
Important trends continue to shape the technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) industry. What developments should you anticipate in 2017? https://subscriptions.deloitte.com/default.aspx?eventid=1323075
Booz Allen Hamilton and Market Connections: C4ISR Survey ReportBooz Allen Hamilton
Booz Allen Hamilton partnered with government market research firm Market Connections, Inc. to conduct the survey of military decision-makers. The research examined the main features of Integrated C4ISR through Enterprise Integration: engineering, operations and acquisition. Two-thirds of respondents (65 percent) agree agile incremental delivery of modular systems with integrated capabilities can enable rapid insertion of new technologies.
The Diversity Imperative: 14th Annual Australian Chief Executive StudyPwC's Strategy&
This report provides insight into the 2013 Australian Chief Executive Study findings, compares the results to the global market and identifies trends. Our analysis looks at trends relating to performance and tenure; reasons for CEO turnover; and the number of insider appointments versus outsider appointments.
18th Annual Global CEO Survey - Technology industry key findingsPwC
Tech CEOs are optimistic about the global economy and both near term and future revenue growth. They view strategic alliances, including partnering with competitors, as a primary means to grow their businesses. We invite you to explore the analysis and contact us to discuss how we can help your business capitalise on the new - but challenging - opportunities for growth. Learn more http://pwc.to/1DaolqY
Website: http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-survey/2015/industry/technology.jhtml
On June 21st, PwC’s Health Research Institute (HRI) released its annual Medical Cost Trend: Behind the Numbers 2017 report. PwC’s HRI anticipates a 6.5% growth rate for 2017—the same as was projected for 2016. The report identifies the key inflators and deflators as well as historical context to better understand the medical cost trend for 2017. Increases in the trend due to utilization of convenient care access points and an uptick in behavioral healthcare benefits for employees are being offset by more aggressive strategies by pharmacy benefit
China Exit or Co-Investment Opportunities for German PE InvestorsL.E.K. Consulting
L.E.K.'s Karin von Kienlin recently presented at BVK on a study conducted by L.E.K. Munich and Shanghai. They wished to:
- Understand developments in Chinese equity investments in both the domestic China / pan-Asian market and cross-border investments between China and Germany / Europe
- Identify trends in likely future investment behavior and its drivers
- Defining success factors both for Chinese and German investors / corporates as to how to benefit from the potential opportunities of cross-border investments and cooperation
Learn more in the presentation here.
Right Cloud Mindset: Survey Results Hospitality | Accentureaccenture
Looking two years ahead: Functional objectives along with technology related challenges and top five areas of investment for hospitality companies. Learn more: https://accntu.re/3uB9LL1
When, Where & How AI Will Boost Federal Workforce Productivityaccenture
Accenture developed an economic model to understand how AI will impact the U.S. federal workforce, through automation and augmentation. Learn more: https://accntu.re/3hsRG8O
Unleashing Competitiveness on the Cloud Continuum | Accentureaccenture
Accenture reports how the cloud continuum creates a seamless technology & capability foundation that meets business needs now and in the future. Read more.
IBOR transition: Opportunities and challenges for the asset management industryEY
EY Wealth & Asset Management explores the practical implications and the way forward for the transition to the new risk-free rates. This presentation aims to help asset managers and asset owners explore IBOR transition strategies that are compliant and future-focused.
EY's European Banking Barometer – 2015 identifies the views of 226 senior European bankers across 11 markets regarding their views of the macro-economic outlook and the impact they think it will have on the banking industry in 2015.
For further information visit: www.ey.com/ebb
Is your energy investment strategy built on the best evidence?
As the energy sector transforms, capital and investment plans must adapt too. Is it time to review your strategies in light of global utilities investment trends? Our latest Power transactions and trends report offers insight and evidence into the major themes and emerging trends driving global power and utilities M&A. Updated quarterly, the report delivers deep insights into each major region.
A.T. Kearney 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into UncertaintyKearney
2017 could be a pivotal year for logistics. Demand patterns are shifting, technological advances are altering industry economics, and new competitors are challenging old business models. This year could bring significant moves that reshape individual sectors and even the industry as a whole. Major business combinations, large-scale shifts in distribution flows, deep capacity cuts, massive infrastructure investments–anything is possible. Here are the ten key takeaways from the 2017 State of Logistics report, as well as the four potential scenarios for the future of logistics.
Lifting the Barriers to Retail Innovation in ASEAN | A.T. KearneyKearney
Rising incomes and growing demand for consumer goods and services in ASEAN create rich opportunities for retailers in the region, which is especially significant as member nations join forces to become an economic powerhouse. Yet ASEAN retailers have been slow in terms of Innovation and as this market opens up, stepping up innovation is required to capitalize fully on the opportunities.
Top 8 Insights From the 2018 Beauty, Health & Wellness SurveyL.E.K. Consulting
Think nutritional supplements and skincare are of interest only to consumers of a certain age? Think again. According to L.E.K. Consulting’s third installment of a biennial survey of the healthy living marketplace, this one focusing on nutrition and skincare, some 80% of health and wellness (H&W) consumers across generations — from millennials to baby boomers — are highly engaged with both categories.
The survey captured insights from more than 1,600 respondents, representing roughly 77% of the U.S. adult population who identify with H&W themes, and generated eight key insights across categories. Together these insights make clear that consumer interest in nutritional supplements and skincare often lasts a lifetime.
PwC’s new Golden Age Index – how well are countries harnessing the power of o...PwC
One of the key megatrends affecting the UK and most other developed countries is an ageing population. Harnessing the potential of older workers will therefore become an increasingly important source of competitive advantage for both nations and businesses.
To explore how the UK compares with other OECD economies in this regard, PwC has developed a new ‘Golden Age index’ comparing how well they are utilising workers aged 55 and over. The index includes relative employment, earnings and training rates for older workers for 34 OECD countries over the period since 2003.
L.E.K. Consulting’s annual Media & Entertainment Study
was conducted between December 2018 and January
2019. We surveyed around 2,000 households on their
entertainment choices, preferences and viewing habits.
This Executive Insights analyzes key findings about
movie theater attendance and subscription services.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
The theme for this quarter is momentum meets uncertainty. The upward trend in crude oil, natural gas, LNG and refined product prices that began in Q1 continued into Q2. Crude oil markets began the quarter just below $100/bbl and have closed below that level on only two days since late April. As we begin Q3, there are increasing concerns about the health of the global economy and how that might affect oil and gas demand.
18th Annual Global CEO Survey - Technology industry key findingsPwC
Tech CEOs are optimistic about the global economy and both near term and future revenue growth. They view strategic alliances, including partnering with competitors, as a primary means to grow their businesses. We invite you to explore the analysis and contact us to discuss how we can help your business capitalise on the new - but challenging - opportunities for growth. Learn more http://pwc.to/1DaolqY
Website: http://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-survey/2015/industry/technology.jhtml
On June 21st, PwC’s Health Research Institute (HRI) released its annual Medical Cost Trend: Behind the Numbers 2017 report. PwC’s HRI anticipates a 6.5% growth rate for 2017—the same as was projected for 2016. The report identifies the key inflators and deflators as well as historical context to better understand the medical cost trend for 2017. Increases in the trend due to utilization of convenient care access points and an uptick in behavioral healthcare benefits for employees are being offset by more aggressive strategies by pharmacy benefit
China Exit or Co-Investment Opportunities for German PE InvestorsL.E.K. Consulting
L.E.K.'s Karin von Kienlin recently presented at BVK on a study conducted by L.E.K. Munich and Shanghai. They wished to:
- Understand developments in Chinese equity investments in both the domestic China / pan-Asian market and cross-border investments between China and Germany / Europe
- Identify trends in likely future investment behavior and its drivers
- Defining success factors both for Chinese and German investors / corporates as to how to benefit from the potential opportunities of cross-border investments and cooperation
Learn more in the presentation here.
Right Cloud Mindset: Survey Results Hospitality | Accentureaccenture
Looking two years ahead: Functional objectives along with technology related challenges and top five areas of investment for hospitality companies. Learn more: https://accntu.re/3uB9LL1
When, Where & How AI Will Boost Federal Workforce Productivityaccenture
Accenture developed an economic model to understand how AI will impact the U.S. federal workforce, through automation and augmentation. Learn more: https://accntu.re/3hsRG8O
Unleashing Competitiveness on the Cloud Continuum | Accentureaccenture
Accenture reports how the cloud continuum creates a seamless technology & capability foundation that meets business needs now and in the future. Read more.
IBOR transition: Opportunities and challenges for the asset management industryEY
EY Wealth & Asset Management explores the practical implications and the way forward for the transition to the new risk-free rates. This presentation aims to help asset managers and asset owners explore IBOR transition strategies that are compliant and future-focused.
EY's European Banking Barometer – 2015 identifies the views of 226 senior European bankers across 11 markets regarding their views of the macro-economic outlook and the impact they think it will have on the banking industry in 2015.
For further information visit: www.ey.com/ebb
Is your energy investment strategy built on the best evidence?
As the energy sector transforms, capital and investment plans must adapt too. Is it time to review your strategies in light of global utilities investment trends? Our latest Power transactions and trends report offers insight and evidence into the major themes and emerging trends driving global power and utilities M&A. Updated quarterly, the report delivers deep insights into each major region.
A.T. Kearney 2017 State of Logistics Report: Accelerating into UncertaintyKearney
2017 could be a pivotal year for logistics. Demand patterns are shifting, technological advances are altering industry economics, and new competitors are challenging old business models. This year could bring significant moves that reshape individual sectors and even the industry as a whole. Major business combinations, large-scale shifts in distribution flows, deep capacity cuts, massive infrastructure investments–anything is possible. Here are the ten key takeaways from the 2017 State of Logistics report, as well as the four potential scenarios for the future of logistics.
Lifting the Barriers to Retail Innovation in ASEAN | A.T. KearneyKearney
Rising incomes and growing demand for consumer goods and services in ASEAN create rich opportunities for retailers in the region, which is especially significant as member nations join forces to become an economic powerhouse. Yet ASEAN retailers have been slow in terms of Innovation and as this market opens up, stepping up innovation is required to capitalize fully on the opportunities.
Top 8 Insights From the 2018 Beauty, Health & Wellness SurveyL.E.K. Consulting
Think nutritional supplements and skincare are of interest only to consumers of a certain age? Think again. According to L.E.K. Consulting’s third installment of a biennial survey of the healthy living marketplace, this one focusing on nutrition and skincare, some 80% of health and wellness (H&W) consumers across generations — from millennials to baby boomers — are highly engaged with both categories.
The survey captured insights from more than 1,600 respondents, representing roughly 77% of the U.S. adult population who identify with H&W themes, and generated eight key insights across categories. Together these insights make clear that consumer interest in nutritional supplements and skincare often lasts a lifetime.
PwC’s new Golden Age Index – how well are countries harnessing the power of o...PwC
One of the key megatrends affecting the UK and most other developed countries is an ageing population. Harnessing the potential of older workers will therefore become an increasingly important source of competitive advantage for both nations and businesses.
To explore how the UK compares with other OECD economies in this regard, PwC has developed a new ‘Golden Age index’ comparing how well they are utilising workers aged 55 and over. The index includes relative employment, earnings and training rates for older workers for 34 OECD countries over the period since 2003.
L.E.K. Consulting’s annual Media & Entertainment Study
was conducted between December 2018 and January
2019. We surveyed around 2,000 households on their
entertainment choices, preferences and viewing habits.
This Executive Insights analyzes key findings about
movie theater attendance and subscription services.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As the last quarter of the second pandemic year draws to a close, we continue to see heightened contrast
between the medical and economic points of view. While COVID-19 cases are close to their all-time highs, so
are equity prices, and a leading investment bank declared (on 2 December, 2021 after the Omicron outbreak in South Africa) that it was “optimistic about the possibility of a vibrant 2022.” When news of the variant hit in
late November, the markets were rocked by the prospect of yet another round of local mobility restrictions and
an interrupted return to normal international travel patterns, on top of the Biden Administration’s announced
release of 50 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. So far though, with OPEC
standing by its planned gradual return to normal production, oil prices have stabilized, albeit below where they
were in mid-November. Henry Hub prices, always at the mercy of the weather, responded predictably to a
warmer-than-normal early winter in the US, falling from US$6.60/MMBtu in early October to below
US$4.00/MMBtu by mid-December. In Europe and Asia, following a short reprieve at the start of the quarter,
piped natural gas prices have spiked again on concerns triggered by Russian troop buildups on the Ukraine
border and uncertainties surrounding the Nordstream 2 pipeline. Looking forward, OPEC and the U.S. Energy
Information Administration (EIA) in their last forecasts of the year both projected that 2022 oil demand would
be above what we saw in 2019. Although time will tell if those forecasts are realized and other events could
intervene, the response to new virus outbreaks is well-practiced and the trade-off between public health and
economic reality has tipped toward a cautiously optimistic view.
The theme for this quarter is momentum meets uncertainty. The upward trend in crude oil, natural gas, LNG and refined product prices that began in Q1 continued into Q2. Crude oil markets began the quarter just below $100/bbl and have closed below that level on only two days since late April. As we begin Q3, there are increasing concerns about the health of the global economy and how that might affect oil and gas demand.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
We enter 2021 on a note of cautious optimism for global health, the world economy, and the oil and gas markets. The first weeks of December brought approval in the US and the UK of the first of several COVID-19 vaccines. The speed with which vaccine development occurred is unprecedented, but certainly welcome. In the weeks following the early November announcement of 90+% effectiveness by the manufacturer of the first approved vaccine, the price of WTI crude oil increased by US$10/bbl to US$48/bbl, the highest level since early March. Sustainability hasn’t returned yet, and whatever time it takes to get the world to normal, it will take even longer for normalization within the oil and gas markets. Inventories remain at historically high levels and, optimistically, it will take until April before inventory returns to levels observed in the preceding five years. That’s an estimate, and there has obviously been some difficulty properly calibrating the expectations of how balance will return and how long it will take. In late November, OPEC met to adjust its output plans because of the anemic rebound in demand. In mid-December, the IEA lowered its demand forecast for 2021 due mostly to continued sluggishness in aviation fuel demand.
A mild winter has interrupted a recovery in North American natural gas prices after a run-up motivated by curtailed capital expenditures, upstream activity and production. After an initial meltdown, with cargo cancellations and dramatic price reversal, LNG markets have made a remarkable comeback, and the spread between Asia and Henry Hub has reached a level we haven’t seen in almost three years. It may be the case that interruption in FIDs has brought us to the cusp of a balance that can support reliable returns.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook (Q4, October 2020)EY
Oil and gas prices have recovered steadily from their lows and are relatively stable, but that stability is supported by the combination of purposeful withholding of production by oil-producing countries and economic stress on upstream independents. Oil prices closed the quarter roughly where they started it, while refining spreads were down slightly. LNG spreads were substantially higher at the end of Q3 than they were at the beginning of the quarter but are still roughly half of what is generally thought of as sustainable.
Going forward, the market will be looking closely at how the economy and demand respond to new developments with respect to a potential COVID-19 vaccine and the US election.
The theme for this quarter is apprehension. In September, the US Federal Reserve announced a third 75 basis point increase in the federal funds rate. In the aftermath, the two-year treasury rate reached the highest level since before the 2008 financial crisis and the spread between two and ten-year rates went below negative 50basis points for the first time since the early eighties. Equity markets have begun to price in the likelihood of a recession and, if history is any indication, the impact on oil markets could be profound.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2, April 2020EY
The first quarter of this year has seen some extraordinary events. As if chronic oversupply, prices stuck below sustainable levels, the looming energy transition, and investor pressure to decarbonize weren’t enough, our industry now faces a dramatic, but hopefully temporary, downturn in demand as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 April 2021EY
The theme for this quarter is governed. Apparent market balance at prices that could be sustainable is the product of calculated choices by market leaders and the cooperation of those who follow them. Economics played their customary role as well, with capital scarcity in North America taking about 2 million barrels per day out of the market, about half of the remaining gap in demand. While inventories are close to their pre-COVID-19 levels, there is still uncertainty. The resolution of the pandemic is in sight, but timing is unclear. Vaccine distribution in the US is having an impact but Europe is struggling to contain a third wave of infections. The taps have opened on economic stimulus, but it remains to be seen if policymakers have done enough or if they have overshot the mark.
The shape of the crude oil forward curve has fundamentally changed since the end of the last quarter. In late December of last year, the Brent forward curve was gradually increasing while today, the curve is backwardated. This is a clear sign that the market sees a short-term dynamic that is disconnected from the medium-to-long-term fundamentals. The lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic remains to be seen. While many have opined that COVID-19 marks a turning point in energy transition, the IEA recently released a five-year forecast of oil demand that shows steady growth, albeit at rates that are below historical expectations.
Gas markets are a paradox. At the Henry Hub and at LNG destinations, demand grows, investment lags and prices will occasionally attract attention. Traders, so far though, are unconvinced and futures prices don’t indicate imminent scarcity at any link in the value chain.
A study released by the analysts at consulting firm Deloitte that looks at the top issues facing the oil and gas sector. The study finds that within the next 5-6 years surging shale oil and natural gas production in the U.S. will "cut deeply" into OPEC's influence on setting world oil prices.
EY Price Point: Global Oil and Gas Market Outlook - Q3EY
The oil and gas sector is constantly changing. Increasingly uncertain energy policies, geopolitical complexities, cost management and climate change all present significant challenges. EY’s Global Oil & Gas Sector supports a global network of more than 10,000 oil and gas professionals with extensive experience in providing assurance, tax, transaction and advisory services across the upstream, midstream, downstream and oil field sub-sectors.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
As we close the second quarter of 2020, in most of Europe and Asia, the first (and hopefully last) wave of the COVID-19 crisis appears to be abating. In the parts of the US where the virus hit early, the profile has largely matched Europe’s, while in other parts, the urge to reopen businesses has trumped the desire to contain the virus and uncertainty looms. In the developing world, the crisis has just begun, but without the economic headroom and resources necessary to contain it. As the crisis unfolded, the effect on oil and gas demand has been predictable but difficult to gauge precisely and therefore difficult to manage.
Oil prices have crept up steadily as production has been curtailed through coordinated action (OPEC+) and because of economic reality (unconventional oil in North America). That trend has been subject to momentary spasms when bad news hit the market. It would be understandable if traders were nervous, and it seems that they are. Although nowhere near where it was at the peak of the crisis, option implied volatility is still at historically high levels. Gas markets, without the benefit of coordination on the supply side, continue to deal with the market implications of storage at or near capacity. Interfuel competition in power generation has always provided something of a floor, but those lows have been, and will continue to be, tested.
The theme for this quarter is inorganic. Although prices climbed in the fourth quarter as the balance of supply and demand tilted in favour of demand, OPEC + restraint was fundamental.
The market is conscious of downside pressures that loom. OPEC + has announced production cuts through to the end of the first quarter. Beyond the first quarter, there is a risk that OPEC + grows weary of supporting the market and reverts to a strategy of growing production, protecting market share and placing pressure on the economics of unconventional producers. Production growth in Brazil and Norway has the potential to consume a significant portion of demand growth expected in 2020. Whether, or the extent to which, US shale output growth continues despite escalating financial strain across the E&P sector will be key in determining whether OPEC + cuts will be sufficient to balance the market in 2020.
In the longer-term, focus remains on the energy mix of the future and its impact on the demand for petroleum products. A number of significant uncertainties remain, including electric vehicle (EV) penetration. EY’s ‘Fueling the Future’ analyzes the outlook under four distinct scenarios. The analysis shows that an inflection point in EV penetration is required by 2022 if the terms of the Paris Accord are to be met.
Global LNG Navigating Risks in a Dynamic MarketCTRM Center
Liquified natural gas (LNG) has been a traded commodity for more than a century. But only in the last couple of decades has the market expanded to meet the ever-increasing demand for energy, through low carbon emissions energy sources. With the development of the massive Qatar LNG facilities in the mid-1990s and the increasing demand for imported gas, global LNG trading has grown from about 50 MTPA in 1990 to more than 350 MTPA in 2020.
Most energy commodities struggled with lower trade and consumption volumes under the pandemic-induced industrial shutdowns in 2020. LNG trade was, however, up slightly at 0.4% during the year, continuing its uninterrupted streak of year-over-year growth since 1996. However, that growth was far below rates in the preceding years which averaged 7% since 2004.
EY Price Point: Global oil and gas market outlook Q4 2018EY
A range of upside forces have shifted market sentiment and some parties are talking of $90, or even $100/bbl oil in the short to medium term. Our insights on the outlook for the global oil price in Q4 2018.
Quarterly analyst themes of oil and gas earnings, Q1 2022EY
Financial questions continued to attract the most attention of the analyst community, with major focus on how companies will respond to the war in Ukraine, elevated commodity prices and improved cash flows. Strategic questions focused on how the changing geopolitical environment will affect capital allocation in the short and long term. Operationally, all eyes were on the capacity of companies to step up asset utilization and bring new projects to market quickly. Explore the latest EY quarterly analysts themes.
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2. Q1 in review
Gary Donald
EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader
gdonald@uk.ey.com
Andy Brogan
EY Global Oil & Gas Leader
abrogan@uk.ey.com
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 2
After two years of oil and gas market reaction to a seemingly endless string of extraordinary events, we end
the first quarter of this year facing the prospect of a complete reworking of the global supply-demand balance,
trade flows and capital allocation. The possibility of escalating sanctions against the world’s largest natural gas
exporter and the second-largest crude oil exporter led oil prices to levels not seen since shortly before the
world financial crisis and LNG prices to levels where they have never been. Although the number of countries
officially banning the import of Russian oil is relatively small, the International Energy Agency has estimated
that about 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) of output would come off the market in the near term and the
potential for reputational damage has affected its marketability. The differential between Brent and Urals crude
went from US$3/bbl (where it had hovered for some time) to US$30/bbl. As always, the shape of the forward
curve gives us valuable clues about how long the short run is and where the market might land. JKM LNG
futures for delivery in December 2023 are trading just over US$1.50 higher than they were in early February,
while April 2022 contracts have gone up over US$10 at the same time. The crude oil market reveals a similar
dynamic. In mid-March, the spread between April 2022 WTI futures and January 2024 contracts was US$26.
At the end of last year, that spread was US$10. Time will tell how the situation on the ground unfolds, which
sanction regime eventually comes to pass and what the market impact will be. The one thing we can be sure of
is that assuming a return to business as usual is not an option.
3. ?
Q2 theme
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 3
The theme for this quarter is rearrangement. The loss, or potential loss, of Russian oil and gas supplies is
forcing producers, refiners and traders to rethink the flow of crude oil and refined products from the wellhead to
the gas pump in light of sanctions, potential sanctions and the risk of reputational damage. Countries,
companies and consumers will all be searching for ways to adapt, and the outcome of the race to bring
alternatives to market could alter the global energy landscape for years to come.
It is likely crude oil and LNG prices will remain elevated for some time. The process of diverting Russian oil
through countries unwilling to sanction it will take time and there is little indication OPEC members are willing
(or able) to increase production to make up for the loss of Russian crude. Spare capacity sat at 3.7 mbpd at the
end of 2021, just above where it was in January 2020. Currently, sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian production
(about 3 mbpd below their peak) could fill the gap, but political and commercial obstacles remain. At today’s
prices, US shale production is attractive, but the fastest the industry has been able to grow is between 1mbpd
and 2mbpd per year. The LNG infrastructure was already stretched before the war in Ukraine and there is little
prosect of finding new supplies soon.
As the largest buyer of Russian energy, Europe will be the epicenter. There is a deeply embedded bias there in
favor for renewable energy, and the current crisis is certain to result in an all-out effort to accelerate the build-
out of wind and solar power. The capacity to add new green energy is limited though by the project pipeline and
supply chains for solar panels and wind turbines, and it is likely that much of the shortfall will be made up with
the new LNG infrastructure.
• Will sanctions against Russian oil and gas be relaxed, tightened or stay the same?
• Are potential suppliers of replacement oil and gas ready (or willing) to ramp up production?
• If oil prices remain high, will consumers respond by buying electric vehicles?
• How quickly can renewable energy fill the void left if Russian gas is taken out of the European market, and how
much LNG capacity will be needed?
4. Q2 trends
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 4
Making up for the loss of Russian oil,
gas and coal has raised questions about
what will fill the gap. The speed to
market and the certainty of supply may
trump sustainability in the short run.
Q2 | April 2022
The flow of Russia’s exports of
refined products is notably different
from crude oil. Product and
geographic differentials will be
volatile until the supply chains can be
reconfigured.
Fluid capital
allocation
Reliance on Russian gas supplies is no
longer viewed as an option. The demand
for gas will not go away quickly and it is
certain that LNG will have an expanded
role in the supply mix in Europe.
Shifting
product flows
and margins
Unprecedented
supply
disruption
The war in Ukraine — and the official and
unofficial sanctions — has thrown trade
patterns into disarray. Any adjustments
will take time and additional
infrastructure investment.
LNG markets
poised to
expand
5. 0
1
2
3
4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Trillion
cubic
feet
EU natural gas inventories
2021
2022
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 5
Market fundamentals
Movement to oversupply
Movement to undersupply
Sources: US EIA; EY analysis.
• Oil market balance continues to lean toward undersupply. In the first quarter, global
demand declined slightly by 0.3% from previous quarter. OPEC and other oil producers
outside North America increased their production, while US output marginally declined.
• Going forward, supply concerns will almost certainly become the dominant narrative.
Sanctions are expected to affect 4.8mbpd of oil exported from Russia and it remains to
be seen what fraction of sanctioned volumes can be redirected to non-sanctioning
countries.
• New production and inventories will be hard pressed to provide an adequate buffer.
Spare OPEC production capacity has gradually fallen to 3.7 mbpd, and while the US,
Canada and Brazil are expected to produce at record levels, other incremental supplies
(such as Iraq and Venezuela) are problematic. The US and its allies have committed to
release 60 million barrels from their emergency reserves, but commercial inventories
ended 2021 below where they were at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Geopolitical upheaval and central bank policies engineered to fight inflation will impact
the economic growth and oil demand. All of the major agencies — IEA, EIA and OPEC —
have lowered their forecasts for 2022.
Supply-side concerns will dominate oil markets
• Natural gas storage is the first line of defense against supply disruption, demand spikes
and other market events, and the war in Ukraine has heighted Europe’s focus on
inventories. Inventories have been consistently low since mid-2021 and prices reflected
severe stress on the LNG capacity well before the loss of Russian supplies became a
risk. Stocks reached 1.2tcf in February, 0.4tcf below last year and 0.5tcf below the
five-year (2017–21) average.
• Contributing factors include the decline in Europe’s natural gas production, higher
demand from the power sector because of lower-than-expected output from offshore
wind facilities, lower-than-normal natural gas pipeline imports from Russia and limited
LNG deliveries due to strong Asian demand.
• As spring approaches, the gas-injecting season is set to begin. In a normal year,
demand would begin to taper and gas consumers and distributors would begin to
accumulate supplies for the next heating season. This is no normal year; prices are at
stratospheric levels and questions about the trade-off between supply security and cost
are bound to arise. Anxiety will be a feature of the market landscape for some time and
volatility is likely to continue.
Gas inventories could become critical
Sources: US EIA; Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory.
Five-year
range
(2017–21)
6. Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 6
Market fundamentals
US shale could rebound
15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
23.0
25.0
150
350
550
750
950
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Total
production
Number
of
rigs
US rig activity vs. production in key shale plays
Total number of rigs Total production Mboe/day
Source: DPR EIA.
• The war in Ukraine, the sanctions that have been put in place, other sanctions that might
follow, and the potential for supply disruptions and elevated oil prices have producers
thinking about how they might fill that gap. The economics of every resource have
improved markedly and projects that had been shelved are being revived.
• Unconventional oil in the US is no exception. The number of working rigs in the shale
fields has increased consistently since the lows experienced during the COVID-19
pandemic, with the active rig count climbing from 220 in August 2020 to 574 in
February 2022. Offshore activity has also picked up, with the number of rigs increasing
from 14 to 18 in December 2021.
• Notwithstanding returns that should be attractive, activity levels have lagged. Rig counts
are just over half of what they were in late 2018, which is just over half of what they
were in late 2014. An acceleration of activity is likely, but the extent is unclear. Majors
are reluctant to expand their carbon footprint and independents are capital constrained.
The shape of the forward curve and the ability to hedge will be critical.
Energy transition drives M&A
Sources: Enverus; EY analysis.
• 2020 was a difficult year for deal activity. Pandemic-related uncertainties dominated the
landscape, muddying valuations and interrupting the normal rhythm of dealmaking. The
momentum built in the second half of 2020 continued into 2021, particularly in the
upstream and OFS sectors. Upstream deal value increased by 66% in 2021, reaching
US$139 billion, while the OFS deal value more than tripled. North America remained the
most active market, with the US alone accounting for more than 40% of total deal value.
• Improved market fundamentals supported deal activity in 2021 and stakeholder pressure
to shrink carbon-intensive businesses led oil majors to divest assets and streamline their
portfolios. In one of the largest deals of 2021, a major IOC sold its Permian assets to an
independent for US$9.5 billion as part of a strategy to reduce its greenhouse gas
emissions.
• Asset turnover may be disrupted in 2022, as momentum toward energy decarbonization
builds and commodity prices remain volatile. Central bank initiatives to control inflation
are on the front burner and interest rate increases are almost certain. Deal activity will
clearly be affected.
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
20
40
60
80
3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21
Number
of
deals
Deal
value
(US$b)
Global oil and gas deals
Upstream OFS Downstream Total volume
7. Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 7
Market fundamentals
Alternatives for Russian crude are scarce
0.3
2.0
0.8 0.6
4.8
Libya Iran US Venezuela Exports to sanction-
backing countries*
Russian crude replacement alternatives (mbpd)
• Russia has been the world’s second-largest oil exporter, providing about 7.2 mbpd to
the world market with 4.8 mbpd going to countries backing Russian sanctions. It is
difficult to know how much sanctions will impact the output or how much oil will be
taken off of the market. Many of those sanctioned barrels will be redirected to countries
not participating in sanctions. Those barrels will, in turn, displace oil that could, in
theory, be redirected to countries that have agreed to sanctions. All of this will require
reworking trade flows and investments in infrastructure necessary to move oil in new
directions.
• Sources of replacement oil are fraught with limitations. OPEC’s spare capacity is in line
with historic norms and higher prices will be the only thing that brings that oil to the
market. Releasing Iran and Venezuela from sanctions and bringing their oil to market
carries a long-term geopolitical risk, and long-standing conflict makes supplies from
Libya unreliable. Short cycle times and the ability to manage market risk make
increased US shale production a likely outcome, but the dismantling of the service
sector means it will take time to bring enough volume to market to make a difference.
Product markets will be reset
• In 2020, Russia exported 106.8 million tons of petroleum products, a little less than
10% of the global inter-area trade. Trade flows for Russian refined products are
markedly different from those for crude oil. Overall, Russia’s shares of the global trade
in crude and products are roughly the same (12% and 10%, respectively). In contrast,
21% of Russia’s product exports found their way to the US, while only 1% of Russian
crude came to the US.
• Crack spreads, which had crept up from just over US$20/bbl at the beginning of
January to about US$28/bbl just before the war in Ukraine, spiked to over US$40/bbl in
early March before settling in the US$30 range. De-risking was the dominant theme in
energy markets early in the war in Ukraine and the downstream segment was no
exception.
• The world has no shortage of refining capacity, but there will be adjustments to crude
inputs and product mixes to accommodate the disrupted trade flows. Going forward,
refineries in China, Venezuela, South Korea and the US are expected to offset Russian
exports. Uncertainties remain around how operational constraints, planned turnaround
activities and civil unrest in countries such as Venezuela might affect ramping up.
Sources: USA EIA; Kpler; The Washington Post; Countries declared spare capacities. * Sanction-backing countries include
Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania,Greece,Spain, France, Slovakia, Finland,Poland, Germany, the US, Bulgaria and the Netherlands.
53.8%
20.9%
2.8%
13.6%
9.0%
Share of Russian petroleum product exports by region
Europe
US
China
APAC, excluding China
Others*
Source: BP Statistical Review, 2021. * Others include Africa, the Middle East, India, South America and Central America,
Canada and CIS countries.
8. Brent futures
Q2 | April 2022
Page 8
Brent futures have increased,
given the war in Ukraine.
Going forward, supply concerns
will be highly scrutinized, given
the sanctions on Russia and the
related impacts on the supply
chain, as well as the sources of
replacement oil. Prices may
continue to stay elevated, yet
volatile, and continue to
experience backwardation until
the market can work through
the current challenges and
constraints.
Futures data is effective as of
11 March 2022.
Source: Bloomberg.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
US$/bbl
Historical Brent Brent futures - March 2022 Brent futures - December 2021
9. Q2 | April 2022
Page 9
Oil price outlook
For WTI and Brent, banks and
brokers (on average) forecast a
wider range of oil prices
throughout the forecast period.
Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a
long-term sustainable oil price, whereas banks
and brokers balance their views on the basis of
the current market conditions.
Given the war in Ukraine began on 24 February
2022, EY analysis is based on the following:
• For 2022 and 2023, banks and brokers and
consultant estimates released since
24 February 2022.
• For 2024 onward, as a result of uncertainty
as to whether current dynamics will sustain
beyond the near term, estimates include
those released since 1 January 2022
(excluding the IEA, which was published in
October 2021).
Brent price estimates derived under the IEA’s
Stated Policies and Sustainable Development
scenarios (inflation adjusted to reflect nominal
pricing) are reflected within the consultant ranges
from 2024 onward.
This data is effective as of 11 March 2022.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Note: the wide range of long-term price estimates reflects the degree of uncertainty within the market. Both the lower and upper ends of the range provided are
supported by the estimates of credible market participants. Given the width of the range, the average of estimates should be used as a starting point for the
assessment or generation of estimates.
Brent:
Average price per bbl forecast in 2026 – consultants
Brent
Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges
and averages
WTI
Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges
and averages
Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports; consultant websites and reports.
US$73.0 WTI: US$70.4
Average price per bbl forecast in 2026 – consultants
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
US$
per
barrel
Bank/broker range Consultants range
Bank/broker average Consultants average
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
US$
per
barrel
Bank/broker range Consultants range
Bank/broker average Consultants average
10. Q2 | April 2022
Page 10
Gas price outlook
For Henry Hub and UK NBP,
consultants (on average) forecast
a wider range of gas prices
throughout the forecast period.
Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a
long-term sustainable gas price, whereas banks
and brokers balance their views on the basis of
the current market conditions.
Given the war in Ukraine began on 24 February
2022, EY analysis is based on the following:
• For 2022 and 2023, banks and brokers
and consultant estimates released since
24 February 2022.
• For 2024 onward, as a result of
uncertainty as to whether current
dynamics will sustain beyond the near
term, estimates include those released
since 1 January 2022 (excluding the IEA,
which was published in October 2021).
Henry Hub price estimates derived under the
IEA’s Stated Policies and Sustainable
Development scenarios (inflation adjusted to
reflect nominal pricing) are reflected within the
consultant ranges from 2024 onward.
UK NBP price estimates are scarce, with only
three forecasts released by banks and brokers
and consultants.
This data is effective as of 11 March 2022.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Note: the wide range of long-term price estimates reflects the degree of uncertainty within the market. Both the lower and upper ends of the range provided are
supported by the estimates of credible market participants. Given the width of the range, the average of estimates should be used as a starting point for the
assessment or generation of estimates.
*NBP: National Balancing Point
Henry Hub:
Average price per MMBtu forecast in 2026 – consultants
UK NBP:
Average price per therm forecast in 2026 – consultants
Henry Hub
Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges
and averages
UK NBP
Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges
and averages
US$3.2 £56.2
Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports; consultant websites and reports.
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
US$
per
MMBtu
Bank/broker range Consultants range
Bank/broker average Consultants average
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
GBp
per
therm
Bank/broker range Consultants range
Bank/broker average Consultants average
11. Appendix
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 11
Brent oil price estimates
This data is effective as of 11 March 2022.
Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports.
* Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank and broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports.
Sources: Consultant websites and reports; Oxford Economics.
Bank/broker 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) 2025 (US$/bbl) 2026 (US$/bbl)
High 110.0 100.0 100.0 92.5
Average 91.5 83.5 78.9 73.0
Median 94.3 82.5 80.0 76.3
Low 66.0 63.0 52.1 55.2
Consultant 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) 2025 (US$/bbl) 2026 (US$/bbl)
High 105.2 89.0 76.7 80.4 82.1
Average 98.6 82.6 70.9 71.8 73.0
Median 99.6 83.3 71.1 72.7 74.1
Low 93.6 78.0 62.2 62.0 62.5
Note: Due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, the price analysis for the years 2022 and 2023 only includes forecasts that were updated subsequent to 24 February 2022. For the-long term forecast (2024 onward), all of the estimates
released since 1 January 2022 have been considered (excluding the IEA, which was published in October 2021).
12. Appendix
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 12
WTI oil price estimates
This data is effective as of 11 March 2022.
Bank/broker 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) 2025 (US$/bbl) 2026 (US$/bbl)
High 108.0 92.0 95.2 90.3
Average 85.4 77.0 73.3 68.5
Median 85.3 77.0 72.6 69.2
Low 62.0 60.0 53.7 55.0
Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports.
*Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank and broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports.
Consultant 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) 2025 (US$/bbl) 2026 (US$/bbl)
High 101.2 85.0 73.3 76.7 78.2
Average 95.2 79.7 68.8 69.5 70.4
Median 95.1 80.6 68.0 68.6 70.0
Low 89.9 75.4 65.0 63.4 60.0
Sources: Consultant websites and reports; Oxford Economics; EY analysis.
Note: Due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, the price analysis for the years 2022 and 2023 only includes forecasts that were updated subsequent to 24 February 2022. For the-long term forecast (2024 onward), all of the estimates
released since 1 January 2022 have been considered.
13. Appendix
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 13
Henry Hub gas price estimates
This data is effective as of 11 March 2022.
Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports.
* Where brokers have reported figures in US$/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu.
** Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank and broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports.
Sources: Consultant websites and reports; Oxford Economics.
Bank/broker 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu) 2025 (US$/MMBtu) 2026 (US$/MMBtu)
High 4.9 4.5 4.0 4.0
Average 4.2 3.6 3.5 3.5
Median 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.7
Low 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Consultant 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu) 2025 (US$/MMBtu) 2026 (US$/MMBtu)
High 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3
Average 4.2 3.6 3.1 3.1 3.2
Median 4.1 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.3
Low 4.0 3.4 2.1 2.1 2.1
Note: Due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, the price analysis for the years 2022 and 2023 only includes forecasts that were updated subsequent to 24 February 2022. For the-long term forecast (2024 onward), all of the estimates
released since 1 January 2022 have been considered (excluding the IEA, which was published in October 2021).
14. Appendix
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 14
UK NBP gas price estimates
This data is effective as of 11 March 2022.
Bank/broker 2022 (£/therm) 2023 (£/therm) 2024 (£/therm) 2025 (£/therm) 2026 (£/therm)
High 176.6 110.3 75.0 60.0
Average 150.8 87.6 64.6 60.0
Median 150.8 87.6 60.0 60.0
Low 125.0 65.0 58.7 60.0
Consultant 2022 (£/therm) 2023 (£/therm) 2024 (£/therm) 2025 (£/therm) 2026 (£/therm)
High 218.7 148.1 92.6 59.8 61.0
Average 164.9 109.7 68.7 55.7 56.2
Median 164.9 109.7 59.0 59.3 60.4
Low 111.2 71.2 54.6 48.0 47.3
Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports.
* Where brokers have reported figures in US$/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu and the broker’s forecasted foreign exchange rates.
** Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank and broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports.
Sources: Consultant websites and reports; Oxford Economics.
* Where consultants have reported figures in US$/MMBtu, we have used the particular consultant’s forecast of the foreign exchange rate for the purpose of our conversion.
Note: Due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, the price analysis for the years 2022 and 2023 only includes forecasts that were updated subsequent to 24 February 2022. For the-long term forecast (2024 onward), all of the estimates
released since 1 January 2022 have been considered.
15. Key contacts
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 15
Important notice
Price outlook data included in this publication is effective as of 11 March 2022. Given the rapidly evolving nature of the
market and the views of market participants, an analysis can quickly become outdated. It should be noted that the EY
analysis is not for the purpose of providing an independent view of the outlook for oil and gas prices. Instead, we are
collating the views of market participants.
Price outlook data should not be applied mechanistically. Instead, careful consideration should be given to the purpose
of any value assessment, with price forecasts assessed in the context of other key assumptions, such as resources and
reserves classifications, production rates, discount rates and cost escalation rates, together with an appreciation of the
key sensitivities in any such analysis.
Gary Donald
EY Global Oil & Gas
Assurance Leader
+44 20 7951 7518
Derek Leith
EY Global Oil & Gas
Tax Leader
+44 1224 653 246
Andy Brogan
EY Global Oil & Gas
Leader
+44 20 7951 7009
David Johnston
Americas Strategy and
Transactions Energy Leader
+1 713 750 1527
Gaurav Ghoge
EY Global Oil & Gas
Strategy Execution Leader
+ 1 713 750 4890
Paul Bogenrieder
EY Global Lead O& Gas
Analyst
+1 813 508 1423