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EY Price Point:
global oil and gas
market outlook
Q2 | April 2022
Q1 in review
Gary Donald
EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader
gdonald@uk.ey.com
Andy Brogan
EY Global Oil & Gas Leader
abrogan@uk.ey.com
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 2
After two years of oil and gas market reaction to a seemingly endless string of extraordinary events, we end
the first quarter of this year facing the prospect of a complete reworking of the global supply-demand balance,
trade flows and capital allocation. The possibility of escalating sanctions against the world’s largest natural gas
exporter and the second-largest crude oil exporter led oil prices to levels not seen since shortly before the
world financial crisis and LNG prices to levels where they have never been. Although the number of countries
officially banning the import of Russian oil is relatively small, the International Energy Agency has estimated
that about 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) of output would come off the market in the near term and the
potential for reputational damage has affected its marketability. The differential between Brent and Urals crude
went from US$3/bbl (where it had hovered for some time) to US$30/bbl. As always, the shape of the forward
curve gives us valuable clues about how long the short run is and where the market might land. JKM LNG
futures for delivery in December 2023 are trading just over US$1.50 higher than they were in early February,
while April 2022 contracts have gone up over US$10 at the same time. The crude oil market reveals a similar
dynamic. In mid-March, the spread between April 2022 WTI futures and January 2024 contracts was US$26.
At the end of last year, that spread was US$10. Time will tell how the situation on the ground unfolds, which
sanction regime eventually comes to pass and what the market impact will be. The one thing we can be sure of
is that assuming a return to business as usual is not an option.
?
Q2 theme
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 3
The theme for this quarter is rearrangement. The loss, or potential loss, of Russian oil and gas supplies is
forcing producers, refiners and traders to rethink the flow of crude oil and refined products from the wellhead to
the gas pump in light of sanctions, potential sanctions and the risk of reputational damage. Countries,
companies and consumers will all be searching for ways to adapt, and the outcome of the race to bring
alternatives to market could alter the global energy landscape for years to come.
It is likely crude oil and LNG prices will remain elevated for some time. The process of diverting Russian oil
through countries unwilling to sanction it will take time and there is little indication OPEC members are willing
(or able) to increase production to make up for the loss of Russian crude. Spare capacity sat at 3.7 mbpd at the
end of 2021, just above where it was in January 2020. Currently, sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian production
(about 3 mbpd below their peak) could fill the gap, but political and commercial obstacles remain. At today’s
prices, US shale production is attractive, but the fastest the industry has been able to grow is between 1mbpd
and 2mbpd per year. The LNG infrastructure was already stretched before the war in Ukraine and there is little
prosect of finding new supplies soon.
As the largest buyer of Russian energy, Europe will be the epicenter. There is a deeply embedded bias there in
favor for renewable energy, and the current crisis is certain to result in an all-out effort to accelerate the build-
out of wind and solar power. The capacity to add new green energy is limited though by the project pipeline and
supply chains for solar panels and wind turbines, and it is likely that much of the shortfall will be made up with
the new LNG infrastructure.
• Will sanctions against Russian oil and gas be relaxed, tightened or stay the same?
• Are potential suppliers of replacement oil and gas ready (or willing) to ramp up production?
• If oil prices remain high, will consumers respond by buying electric vehicles?
• How quickly can renewable energy fill the void left if Russian gas is taken out of the European market, and how
much LNG capacity will be needed?
Q2 trends
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 4
Making up for the loss of Russian oil,
gas and coal has raised questions about
what will fill the gap. The speed to
market and the certainty of supply may
trump sustainability in the short run.
Q2 | April 2022
The flow of Russia’s exports of
refined products is notably different
from crude oil. Product and
geographic differentials will be
volatile until the supply chains can be
reconfigured.
Fluid capital
allocation
Reliance on Russian gas supplies is no
longer viewed as an option. The demand
for gas will not go away quickly and it is
certain that LNG will have an expanded
role in the supply mix in Europe.
Shifting
product flows
and margins
Unprecedented
supply
disruption
The war in Ukraine — and the official and
unofficial sanctions — has thrown trade
patterns into disarray. Any adjustments
will take time and additional
infrastructure investment.
LNG markets
poised to
expand
0
1
2
3
4
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Trillion
cubic
feet
EU natural gas inventories
2021
2022
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 5
Market fundamentals
Movement to oversupply
Movement to undersupply
Sources: US EIA; EY analysis.
• Oil market balance continues to lean toward undersupply. In the first quarter, global
demand declined slightly by 0.3% from previous quarter. OPEC and other oil producers
outside North America increased their production, while US output marginally declined.
• Going forward, supply concerns will almost certainly become the dominant narrative.
Sanctions are expected to affect 4.8mbpd of oil exported from Russia and it remains to
be seen what fraction of sanctioned volumes can be redirected to non-sanctioning
countries.
• New production and inventories will be hard pressed to provide an adequate buffer.
Spare OPEC production capacity has gradually fallen to 3.7 mbpd, and while the US,
Canada and Brazil are expected to produce at record levels, other incremental supplies
(such as Iraq and Venezuela) are problematic. The US and its allies have committed to
release 60 million barrels from their emergency reserves, but commercial inventories
ended 2021 below where they were at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Geopolitical upheaval and central bank policies engineered to fight inflation will impact
the economic growth and oil demand. All of the major agencies — IEA, EIA and OPEC —
have lowered their forecasts for 2022.
Supply-side concerns will dominate oil markets
• Natural gas storage is the first line of defense against supply disruption, demand spikes
and other market events, and the war in Ukraine has heighted Europe’s focus on
inventories. Inventories have been consistently low since mid-2021 and prices reflected
severe stress on the LNG capacity well before the loss of Russian supplies became a
risk. Stocks reached 1.2tcf in February, 0.4tcf below last year and 0.5tcf below the
five-year (2017–21) average.
• Contributing factors include the decline in Europe’s natural gas production, higher
demand from the power sector because of lower-than-expected output from offshore
wind facilities, lower-than-normal natural gas pipeline imports from Russia and limited
LNG deliveries due to strong Asian demand.
• As spring approaches, the gas-injecting season is set to begin. In a normal year,
demand would begin to taper and gas consumers and distributors would begin to
accumulate supplies for the next heating season. This is no normal year; prices are at
stratospheric levels and questions about the trade-off between supply security and cost
are bound to arise. Anxiety will be a feature of the market landscape for some time and
volatility is likely to continue.
Gas inventories could become critical
Sources: US EIA; Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory.
Five-year
range
(2017–21)
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 6
Market fundamentals
US shale could rebound
15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
23.0
25.0
150
350
550
750
950
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Total
production
Number
of
rigs
US rig activity vs. production in key shale plays
Total number of rigs Total production Mboe/day
Source: DPR EIA.
• The war in Ukraine, the sanctions that have been put in place, other sanctions that might
follow, and the potential for supply disruptions and elevated oil prices have producers
thinking about how they might fill that gap. The economics of every resource have
improved markedly and projects that had been shelved are being revived.
• Unconventional oil in the US is no exception. The number of working rigs in the shale
fields has increased consistently since the lows experienced during the COVID-19
pandemic, with the active rig count climbing from 220 in August 2020 to 574 in
February 2022. Offshore activity has also picked up, with the number of rigs increasing
from 14 to 18 in December 2021.
• Notwithstanding returns that should be attractive, activity levels have lagged. Rig counts
are just over half of what they were in late 2018, which is just over half of what they
were in late 2014. An acceleration of activity is likely, but the extent is unclear. Majors
are reluctant to expand their carbon footprint and independents are capital constrained.
The shape of the forward curve and the ability to hedge will be critical.
Energy transition drives M&A
Sources: Enverus; EY analysis.
• 2020 was a difficult year for deal activity. Pandemic-related uncertainties dominated the
landscape, muddying valuations and interrupting the normal rhythm of dealmaking. The
momentum built in the second half of 2020 continued into 2021, particularly in the
upstream and OFS sectors. Upstream deal value increased by 66% in 2021, reaching
US$139 billion, while the OFS deal value more than tripled. North America remained the
most active market, with the US alone accounting for more than 40% of total deal value.
• Improved market fundamentals supported deal activity in 2021 and stakeholder pressure
to shrink carbon-intensive businesses led oil majors to divest assets and streamline their
portfolios. In one of the largest deals of 2021, a major IOC sold its Permian assets to an
independent for US$9.5 billion as part of a strategy to reduce its greenhouse gas
emissions.
• Asset turnover may be disrupted in 2022, as momentum toward energy decarbonization
builds and commodity prices remain volatile. Central bank initiatives to control inflation
are on the front burner and interest rate increases are almost certain. Deal activity will
clearly be affected.
0
100
200
300
400
500
0
20
40
60
80
3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21
Number
of
deals
Deal
value
(US$b)
Global oil and gas deals
Upstream OFS Downstream Total volume
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 7
Market fundamentals
Alternatives for Russian crude are scarce
0.3
2.0
0.8 0.6
4.8
Libya Iran US Venezuela Exports to sanction-
backing countries*
Russian crude replacement alternatives (mbpd)
• Russia has been the world’s second-largest oil exporter, providing about 7.2 mbpd to
the world market with 4.8 mbpd going to countries backing Russian sanctions. It is
difficult to know how much sanctions will impact the output or how much oil will be
taken off of the market. Many of those sanctioned barrels will be redirected to countries
not participating in sanctions. Those barrels will, in turn, displace oil that could, in
theory, be redirected to countries that have agreed to sanctions. All of this will require
reworking trade flows and investments in infrastructure necessary to move oil in new
directions.
• Sources of replacement oil are fraught with limitations. OPEC’s spare capacity is in line
with historic norms and higher prices will be the only thing that brings that oil to the
market. Releasing Iran and Venezuela from sanctions and bringing their oil to market
carries a long-term geopolitical risk, and long-standing conflict makes supplies from
Libya unreliable. Short cycle times and the ability to manage market risk make
increased US shale production a likely outcome, but the dismantling of the service
sector means it will take time to bring enough volume to market to make a difference.
Product markets will be reset
• In 2020, Russia exported 106.8 million tons of petroleum products, a little less than
10% of the global inter-area trade. Trade flows for Russian refined products are
markedly different from those for crude oil. Overall, Russia’s shares of the global trade
in crude and products are roughly the same (12% and 10%, respectively). In contrast,
21% of Russia’s product exports found their way to the US, while only 1% of Russian
crude came to the US.
• Crack spreads, which had crept up from just over US$20/bbl at the beginning of
January to about US$28/bbl just before the war in Ukraine, spiked to over US$40/bbl in
early March before settling in the US$30 range. De-risking was the dominant theme in
energy markets early in the war in Ukraine and the downstream segment was no
exception.
• The world has no shortage of refining capacity, but there will be adjustments to crude
inputs and product mixes to accommodate the disrupted trade flows. Going forward,
refineries in China, Venezuela, South Korea and the US are expected to offset Russian
exports. Uncertainties remain around how operational constraints, planned turnaround
activities and civil unrest in countries such as Venezuela might affect ramping up.
Sources: USA EIA; Kpler; The Washington Post; Countries declared spare capacities. * Sanction-backing countries include
Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania,Greece,Spain, France, Slovakia, Finland,Poland, Germany, the US, Bulgaria and the Netherlands.
53.8%
20.9%
2.8%
13.6%
9.0%
Share of Russian petroleum product exports by region
Europe
US
China
APAC, excluding China
Others*
Source: BP Statistical Review, 2021. * Others include Africa, the Middle East, India, South America and Central America,
Canada and CIS countries.
Brent futures
Q2 | April 2022
Page 8
Brent futures have increased,
given the war in Ukraine.
Going forward, supply concerns
will be highly scrutinized, given
the sanctions on Russia and the
related impacts on the supply
chain, as well as the sources of
replacement oil. Prices may
continue to stay elevated, yet
volatile, and continue to
experience backwardation until
the market can work through
the current challenges and
constraints.
Futures data is effective as of
11 March 2022.
Source: Bloomberg.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
US$/bbl
Historical Brent Brent futures - March 2022 Brent futures - December 2021
Q2 | April 2022
Page 9
Oil price outlook
For WTI and Brent, banks and
brokers (on average) forecast a
wider range of oil prices
throughout the forecast period.
Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a
long-term sustainable oil price, whereas banks
and brokers balance their views on the basis of
the current market conditions.
Given the war in Ukraine began on 24 February
2022, EY analysis is based on the following:
• For 2022 and 2023, banks and brokers and
consultant estimates released since
24 February 2022.
• For 2024 onward, as a result of uncertainty
as to whether current dynamics will sustain
beyond the near term, estimates include
those released since 1 January 2022
(excluding the IEA, which was published in
October 2021).
Brent price estimates derived under the IEA’s
Stated Policies and Sustainable Development
scenarios (inflation adjusted to reflect nominal
pricing) are reflected within the consultant ranges
from 2024 onward.
This data is effective as of 11 March 2022.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Note: the wide range of long-term price estimates reflects the degree of uncertainty within the market. Both the lower and upper ends of the range provided are
supported by the estimates of credible market participants. Given the width of the range, the average of estimates should be used as a starting point for the
assessment or generation of estimates.
Brent:
Average price per bbl forecast in 2026 – consultants
Brent
Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges
and averages
WTI
Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges
and averages
Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports; consultant websites and reports.
US$73.0 WTI: US$70.4
Average price per bbl forecast in 2026 – consultants
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
115
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
US$
per
barrel
Bank/broker range Consultants range
Bank/broker average Consultants average
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
US$
per
barrel
Bank/broker range Consultants range
Bank/broker average Consultants average
Q2 | April 2022
Page 10
Gas price outlook
For Henry Hub and UK NBP,
consultants (on average) forecast
a wider range of gas prices
throughout the forecast period.
Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a
long-term sustainable gas price, whereas banks
and brokers balance their views on the basis of
the current market conditions.
Given the war in Ukraine began on 24 February
2022, EY analysis is based on the following:
• For 2022 and 2023, banks and brokers
and consultant estimates released since
24 February 2022.
• For 2024 onward, as a result of
uncertainty as to whether current
dynamics will sustain beyond the near
term, estimates include those released
since 1 January 2022 (excluding the IEA,
which was published in October 2021).
Henry Hub price estimates derived under the
IEA’s Stated Policies and Sustainable
Development scenarios (inflation adjusted to
reflect nominal pricing) are reflected within the
consultant ranges from 2024 onward.
UK NBP price estimates are scarce, with only
three forecasts released by banks and brokers
and consultants.
This data is effective as of 11 March 2022.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Note: the wide range of long-term price estimates reflects the degree of uncertainty within the market. Both the lower and upper ends of the range provided are
supported by the estimates of credible market participants. Given the width of the range, the average of estimates should be used as a starting point for the
assessment or generation of estimates.
*NBP: National Balancing Point
Henry Hub:
Average price per MMBtu forecast in 2026 – consultants
UK NBP:
Average price per therm forecast in 2026 – consultants
Henry Hub
Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges
and averages
UK NBP
Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges
and averages
US$3.2 £56.2
Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports; consultant websites and reports.
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
US$
per
MMBtu
Bank/broker range Consultants range
Bank/broker average Consultants average
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
GBp
per
therm
Bank/broker range Consultants range
Bank/broker average Consultants average
Appendix
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 11
Brent oil price estimates
This data is effective as of 11 March 2022.
Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports.
* Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank and broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports.
Sources: Consultant websites and reports; Oxford Economics.
Bank/broker 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) 2025 (US$/bbl) 2026 (US$/bbl)
High 110.0 100.0 100.0 92.5
Average 91.5 83.5 78.9 73.0
Median 94.3 82.5 80.0 76.3
Low 66.0 63.0 52.1 55.2
Consultant 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) 2025 (US$/bbl) 2026 (US$/bbl)
High 105.2 89.0 76.7 80.4 82.1
Average 98.6 82.6 70.9 71.8 73.0
Median 99.6 83.3 71.1 72.7 74.1
Low 93.6 78.0 62.2 62.0 62.5
Note: Due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, the price analysis for the years 2022 and 2023 only includes forecasts that were updated subsequent to 24 February 2022. For the-long term forecast (2024 onward), all of the estimates
released since 1 January 2022 have been considered (excluding the IEA, which was published in October 2021).
Appendix
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 12
WTI oil price estimates
This data is effective as of 11 March 2022.
Bank/broker 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) 2025 (US$/bbl) 2026 (US$/bbl)
High 108.0 92.0 95.2 90.3
Average 85.4 77.0 73.3 68.5
Median 85.3 77.0 72.6 69.2
Low 62.0 60.0 53.7 55.0
Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports.
*Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank and broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports.
Consultant 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) 2025 (US$/bbl) 2026 (US$/bbl)
High 101.2 85.0 73.3 76.7 78.2
Average 95.2 79.7 68.8 69.5 70.4
Median 95.1 80.6 68.0 68.6 70.0
Low 89.9 75.4 65.0 63.4 60.0
Sources: Consultant websites and reports; Oxford Economics; EY analysis.
Note: Due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, the price analysis for the years 2022 and 2023 only includes forecasts that were updated subsequent to 24 February 2022. For the-long term forecast (2024 onward), all of the estimates
released since 1 January 2022 have been considered.
Appendix
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 13
Henry Hub gas price estimates
This data is effective as of 11 March 2022.
Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports.
* Where brokers have reported figures in US$/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu.
** Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank and broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports.
Sources: Consultant websites and reports; Oxford Economics.
Bank/broker 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu) 2025 (US$/MMBtu) 2026 (US$/MMBtu)
High 4.9 4.5 4.0 4.0
Average 4.2 3.6 3.5 3.5
Median 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.7
Low 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Consultant 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu) 2025 (US$/MMBtu) 2026 (US$/MMBtu)
High 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3
Average 4.2 3.6 3.1 3.1 3.2
Median 4.1 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.3
Low 4.0 3.4 2.1 2.1 2.1
Note: Due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, the price analysis for the years 2022 and 2023 only includes forecasts that were updated subsequent to 24 February 2022. For the-long term forecast (2024 onward), all of the estimates
released since 1 January 2022 have been considered (excluding the IEA, which was published in October 2021).
Appendix
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 14
UK NBP gas price estimates
This data is effective as of 11 March 2022.
Bank/broker 2022 (£/therm) 2023 (£/therm) 2024 (£/therm) 2025 (£/therm) 2026 (£/therm)
High 176.6 110.3 75.0 60.0
Average 150.8 87.6 64.6 60.0
Median 150.8 87.6 60.0 60.0
Low 125.0 65.0 58.7 60.0
Consultant 2022 (£/therm) 2023 (£/therm) 2024 (£/therm) 2025 (£/therm) 2026 (£/therm)
High 218.7 148.1 92.6 59.8 61.0
Average 164.9 109.7 68.7 55.7 56.2
Median 164.9 109.7 59.0 59.3 60.4
Low 111.2 71.2 54.6 48.0 47.3
Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports.
* Where brokers have reported figures in US$/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu and the broker’s forecasted foreign exchange rates.
** Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank and broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports.
Sources: Consultant websites and reports; Oxford Economics.
* Where consultants have reported figures in US$/MMBtu, we have used the particular consultant’s forecast of the foreign exchange rate for the purpose of our conversion.
Note: Due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, the price analysis for the years 2022 and 2023 only includes forecasts that were updated subsequent to 24 February 2022. For the-long term forecast (2024 onward), all of the estimates
released since 1 January 2022 have been considered.
Key contacts
Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook
Page 15
Important notice
Price outlook data included in this publication is effective as of 11 March 2022. Given the rapidly evolving nature of the
market and the views of market participants, an analysis can quickly become outdated. It should be noted that the EY
analysis is not for the purpose of providing an independent view of the outlook for oil and gas prices. Instead, we are
collating the views of market participants.
Price outlook data should not be applied mechanistically. Instead, careful consideration should be given to the purpose
of any value assessment, with price forecasts assessed in the context of other key assumptions, such as resources and
reserves classifications, production rates, discount rates and cost escalation rates, together with an appreciation of the
key sensitivities in any such analysis.
Gary Donald
EY Global Oil & Gas
Assurance Leader
+44 20 7951 7518
Derek Leith
EY Global Oil & Gas
Tax Leader
+44 1224 653 246
Andy Brogan
EY Global Oil & Gas
Leader
+44 20 7951 7009
David Johnston
Americas Strategy and
Transactions Energy Leader
+1 713 750 1527
Gaurav Ghoge
EY Global Oil & Gas
Strategy Execution Leader
+ 1 713 750 4890
Paul Bogenrieder
EY Global Lead O& Gas
Analyst
+1 813 508 1423
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How EY’s Global Oil & Gas team can help you
As changing demand and pricing volatility transform the oil and gas industry,
companies must reshape to thrive in this new energy world. But how do you
balance the immediate cost and regulatory pressures of “now” with
investment in what comes “next”? EY’s Global Oil & Gas team brings together
the breadth of experience and talent needed to approach the entire
transformation process. By considering four key pillars of change — structure
and culture, customers, technology, and skills and capabilities — we can help
you adapt for today and reap the opportunities of tomorrow. And together we
can build a better working world.
© 2022 EYGM Limited.
All Rights Reserved.
EYG no. 002911-22Gbl
ED None
This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied
upon as accounting, tax, legal or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific
advice.
ey.com

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EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 | April 2022

  • 1. EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Q2 | April 2022
  • 2. Q1 in review Gary Donald EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader gdonald@uk.ey.com Andy Brogan EY Global Oil & Gas Leader abrogan@uk.ey.com Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 2 After two years of oil and gas market reaction to a seemingly endless string of extraordinary events, we end the first quarter of this year facing the prospect of a complete reworking of the global supply-demand balance, trade flows and capital allocation. The possibility of escalating sanctions against the world’s largest natural gas exporter and the second-largest crude oil exporter led oil prices to levels not seen since shortly before the world financial crisis and LNG prices to levels where they have never been. Although the number of countries officially banning the import of Russian oil is relatively small, the International Energy Agency has estimated that about 2.5 million barrels per day (mbpd) of output would come off the market in the near term and the potential for reputational damage has affected its marketability. The differential between Brent and Urals crude went from US$3/bbl (where it had hovered for some time) to US$30/bbl. As always, the shape of the forward curve gives us valuable clues about how long the short run is and where the market might land. JKM LNG futures for delivery in December 2023 are trading just over US$1.50 higher than they were in early February, while April 2022 contracts have gone up over US$10 at the same time. The crude oil market reveals a similar dynamic. In mid-March, the spread between April 2022 WTI futures and January 2024 contracts was US$26. At the end of last year, that spread was US$10. Time will tell how the situation on the ground unfolds, which sanction regime eventually comes to pass and what the market impact will be. The one thing we can be sure of is that assuming a return to business as usual is not an option.
  • 3. ? Q2 theme Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 3 The theme for this quarter is rearrangement. The loss, or potential loss, of Russian oil and gas supplies is forcing producers, refiners and traders to rethink the flow of crude oil and refined products from the wellhead to the gas pump in light of sanctions, potential sanctions and the risk of reputational damage. Countries, companies and consumers will all be searching for ways to adapt, and the outcome of the race to bring alternatives to market could alter the global energy landscape for years to come. It is likely crude oil and LNG prices will remain elevated for some time. The process of diverting Russian oil through countries unwilling to sanction it will take time and there is little indication OPEC members are willing (or able) to increase production to make up for the loss of Russian crude. Spare capacity sat at 3.7 mbpd at the end of 2021, just above where it was in January 2020. Currently, sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian production (about 3 mbpd below their peak) could fill the gap, but political and commercial obstacles remain. At today’s prices, US shale production is attractive, but the fastest the industry has been able to grow is between 1mbpd and 2mbpd per year. The LNG infrastructure was already stretched before the war in Ukraine and there is little prosect of finding new supplies soon. As the largest buyer of Russian energy, Europe will be the epicenter. There is a deeply embedded bias there in favor for renewable energy, and the current crisis is certain to result in an all-out effort to accelerate the build- out of wind and solar power. The capacity to add new green energy is limited though by the project pipeline and supply chains for solar panels and wind turbines, and it is likely that much of the shortfall will be made up with the new LNG infrastructure. • Will sanctions against Russian oil and gas be relaxed, tightened or stay the same? • Are potential suppliers of replacement oil and gas ready (or willing) to ramp up production? • If oil prices remain high, will consumers respond by buying electric vehicles? • How quickly can renewable energy fill the void left if Russian gas is taken out of the European market, and how much LNG capacity will be needed?
  • 4. Q2 trends EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 4 Making up for the loss of Russian oil, gas and coal has raised questions about what will fill the gap. The speed to market and the certainty of supply may trump sustainability in the short run. Q2 | April 2022 The flow of Russia’s exports of refined products is notably different from crude oil. Product and geographic differentials will be volatile until the supply chains can be reconfigured. Fluid capital allocation Reliance on Russian gas supplies is no longer viewed as an option. The demand for gas will not go away quickly and it is certain that LNG will have an expanded role in the supply mix in Europe. Shifting product flows and margins Unprecedented supply disruption The war in Ukraine — and the official and unofficial sanctions — has thrown trade patterns into disarray. Any adjustments will take time and additional infrastructure investment. LNG markets poised to expand
  • 5. 0 1 2 3 4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Trillion cubic feet EU natural gas inventories 2021 2022 Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 5 Market fundamentals Movement to oversupply Movement to undersupply Sources: US EIA; EY analysis. • Oil market balance continues to lean toward undersupply. In the first quarter, global demand declined slightly by 0.3% from previous quarter. OPEC and other oil producers outside North America increased their production, while US output marginally declined. • Going forward, supply concerns will almost certainly become the dominant narrative. Sanctions are expected to affect 4.8mbpd of oil exported from Russia and it remains to be seen what fraction of sanctioned volumes can be redirected to non-sanctioning countries. • New production and inventories will be hard pressed to provide an adequate buffer. Spare OPEC production capacity has gradually fallen to 3.7 mbpd, and while the US, Canada and Brazil are expected to produce at record levels, other incremental supplies (such as Iraq and Venezuela) are problematic. The US and its allies have committed to release 60 million barrels from their emergency reserves, but commercial inventories ended 2021 below where they were at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. • Geopolitical upheaval and central bank policies engineered to fight inflation will impact the economic growth and oil demand. All of the major agencies — IEA, EIA and OPEC — have lowered their forecasts for 2022. Supply-side concerns will dominate oil markets • Natural gas storage is the first line of defense against supply disruption, demand spikes and other market events, and the war in Ukraine has heighted Europe’s focus on inventories. Inventories have been consistently low since mid-2021 and prices reflected severe stress on the LNG capacity well before the loss of Russian supplies became a risk. Stocks reached 1.2tcf in February, 0.4tcf below last year and 0.5tcf below the five-year (2017–21) average. • Contributing factors include the decline in Europe’s natural gas production, higher demand from the power sector because of lower-than-expected output from offshore wind facilities, lower-than-normal natural gas pipeline imports from Russia and limited LNG deliveries due to strong Asian demand. • As spring approaches, the gas-injecting season is set to begin. In a normal year, demand would begin to taper and gas consumers and distributors would begin to accumulate supplies for the next heating season. This is no normal year; prices are at stratospheric levels and questions about the trade-off between supply security and cost are bound to arise. Anxiety will be a feature of the market landscape for some time and volatility is likely to continue. Gas inventories could become critical Sources: US EIA; Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE) Aggregated Gas Storage Inventory. Five-year range (2017–21)
  • 6. Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 6 Market fundamentals US shale could rebound 15.0 17.0 19.0 21.0 23.0 25.0 150 350 550 750 950 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Total production Number of rigs US rig activity vs. production in key shale plays Total number of rigs Total production Mboe/day Source: DPR EIA. • The war in Ukraine, the sanctions that have been put in place, other sanctions that might follow, and the potential for supply disruptions and elevated oil prices have producers thinking about how they might fill that gap. The economics of every resource have improved markedly and projects that had been shelved are being revived. • Unconventional oil in the US is no exception. The number of working rigs in the shale fields has increased consistently since the lows experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic, with the active rig count climbing from 220 in August 2020 to 574 in February 2022. Offshore activity has also picked up, with the number of rigs increasing from 14 to 18 in December 2021. • Notwithstanding returns that should be attractive, activity levels have lagged. Rig counts are just over half of what they were in late 2018, which is just over half of what they were in late 2014. An acceleration of activity is likely, but the extent is unclear. Majors are reluctant to expand their carbon footprint and independents are capital constrained. The shape of the forward curve and the ability to hedge will be critical. Energy transition drives M&A Sources: Enverus; EY analysis. • 2020 was a difficult year for deal activity. Pandemic-related uncertainties dominated the landscape, muddying valuations and interrupting the normal rhythm of dealmaking. The momentum built in the second half of 2020 continued into 2021, particularly in the upstream and OFS sectors. Upstream deal value increased by 66% in 2021, reaching US$139 billion, while the OFS deal value more than tripled. North America remained the most active market, with the US alone accounting for more than 40% of total deal value. • Improved market fundamentals supported deal activity in 2021 and stakeholder pressure to shrink carbon-intensive businesses led oil majors to divest assets and streamline their portfolios. In one of the largest deals of 2021, a major IOC sold its Permian assets to an independent for US$9.5 billion as part of a strategy to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. • Asset turnover may be disrupted in 2022, as momentum toward energy decarbonization builds and commodity prices remain volatile. Central bank initiatives to control inflation are on the front burner and interest rate increases are almost certain. Deal activity will clearly be affected. 0 100 200 300 400 500 0 20 40 60 80 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 Number of deals Deal value (US$b) Global oil and gas deals Upstream OFS Downstream Total volume
  • 7. Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 7 Market fundamentals Alternatives for Russian crude are scarce 0.3 2.0 0.8 0.6 4.8 Libya Iran US Venezuela Exports to sanction- backing countries* Russian crude replacement alternatives (mbpd) • Russia has been the world’s second-largest oil exporter, providing about 7.2 mbpd to the world market with 4.8 mbpd going to countries backing Russian sanctions. It is difficult to know how much sanctions will impact the output or how much oil will be taken off of the market. Many of those sanctioned barrels will be redirected to countries not participating in sanctions. Those barrels will, in turn, displace oil that could, in theory, be redirected to countries that have agreed to sanctions. All of this will require reworking trade flows and investments in infrastructure necessary to move oil in new directions. • Sources of replacement oil are fraught with limitations. OPEC’s spare capacity is in line with historic norms and higher prices will be the only thing that brings that oil to the market. Releasing Iran and Venezuela from sanctions and bringing their oil to market carries a long-term geopolitical risk, and long-standing conflict makes supplies from Libya unreliable. Short cycle times and the ability to manage market risk make increased US shale production a likely outcome, but the dismantling of the service sector means it will take time to bring enough volume to market to make a difference. Product markets will be reset • In 2020, Russia exported 106.8 million tons of petroleum products, a little less than 10% of the global inter-area trade. Trade flows for Russian refined products are markedly different from those for crude oil. Overall, Russia’s shares of the global trade in crude and products are roughly the same (12% and 10%, respectively). In contrast, 21% of Russia’s product exports found their way to the US, while only 1% of Russian crude came to the US. • Crack spreads, which had crept up from just over US$20/bbl at the beginning of January to about US$28/bbl just before the war in Ukraine, spiked to over US$40/bbl in early March before settling in the US$30 range. De-risking was the dominant theme in energy markets early in the war in Ukraine and the downstream segment was no exception. • The world has no shortage of refining capacity, but there will be adjustments to crude inputs and product mixes to accommodate the disrupted trade flows. Going forward, refineries in China, Venezuela, South Korea and the US are expected to offset Russian exports. Uncertainties remain around how operational constraints, planned turnaround activities and civil unrest in countries such as Venezuela might affect ramping up. Sources: USA EIA; Kpler; The Washington Post; Countries declared spare capacities. * Sanction-backing countries include Denmark, Estonia, Lithuania,Greece,Spain, France, Slovakia, Finland,Poland, Germany, the US, Bulgaria and the Netherlands. 53.8% 20.9% 2.8% 13.6% 9.0% Share of Russian petroleum product exports by region Europe US China APAC, excluding China Others* Source: BP Statistical Review, 2021. * Others include Africa, the Middle East, India, South America and Central America, Canada and CIS countries.
  • 8. Brent futures Q2 | April 2022 Page 8 Brent futures have increased, given the war in Ukraine. Going forward, supply concerns will be highly scrutinized, given the sanctions on Russia and the related impacts on the supply chain, as well as the sources of replacement oil. Prices may continue to stay elevated, yet volatile, and continue to experience backwardation until the market can work through the current challenges and constraints. Futures data is effective as of 11 March 2022. Source: Bloomberg. EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 US$/bbl Historical Brent Brent futures - March 2022 Brent futures - December 2021
  • 9. Q2 | April 2022 Page 9 Oil price outlook For WTI and Brent, banks and brokers (on average) forecast a wider range of oil prices throughout the forecast period. Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a long-term sustainable oil price, whereas banks and brokers balance their views on the basis of the current market conditions. Given the war in Ukraine began on 24 February 2022, EY analysis is based on the following: • For 2022 and 2023, banks and brokers and consultant estimates released since 24 February 2022. • For 2024 onward, as a result of uncertainty as to whether current dynamics will sustain beyond the near term, estimates include those released since 1 January 2022 (excluding the IEA, which was published in October 2021). Brent price estimates derived under the IEA’s Stated Policies and Sustainable Development scenarios (inflation adjusted to reflect nominal pricing) are reflected within the consultant ranges from 2024 onward. This data is effective as of 11 March 2022. EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Note: the wide range of long-term price estimates reflects the degree of uncertainty within the market. Both the lower and upper ends of the range provided are supported by the estimates of credible market participants. Given the width of the range, the average of estimates should be used as a starting point for the assessment or generation of estimates. Brent: Average price per bbl forecast in 2026 – consultants Brent Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges and averages WTI Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges and averages Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports; consultant websites and reports. US$73.0 WTI: US$70.4 Average price per bbl forecast in 2026 – consultants 45 55 65 75 85 95 105 115 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 US$ per barrel Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 US$ per barrel Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average
  • 10. Q2 | April 2022 Page 10 Gas price outlook For Henry Hub and UK NBP, consultants (on average) forecast a wider range of gas prices throughout the forecast period. Consultants focus primarily on the analysis of a long-term sustainable gas price, whereas banks and brokers balance their views on the basis of the current market conditions. Given the war in Ukraine began on 24 February 2022, EY analysis is based on the following: • For 2022 and 2023, banks and brokers and consultant estimates released since 24 February 2022. • For 2024 onward, as a result of uncertainty as to whether current dynamics will sustain beyond the near term, estimates include those released since 1 January 2022 (excluding the IEA, which was published in October 2021). Henry Hub price estimates derived under the IEA’s Stated Policies and Sustainable Development scenarios (inflation adjusted to reflect nominal pricing) are reflected within the consultant ranges from 2024 onward. UK NBP price estimates are scarce, with only three forecasts released by banks and brokers and consultants. This data is effective as of 11 March 2022. EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Note: the wide range of long-term price estimates reflects the degree of uncertainty within the market. Both the lower and upper ends of the range provided are supported by the estimates of credible market participants. Given the width of the range, the average of estimates should be used as a starting point for the assessment or generation of estimates. *NBP: National Balancing Point Henry Hub: Average price per MMBtu forecast in 2026 – consultants UK NBP: Average price per therm forecast in 2026 – consultants Henry Hub Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges and averages UK NBP Bank/broker and consultant price estimates, ranges and averages US$3.2 £56.2 Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports; consultant websites and reports. 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 US$ per MMBtu Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 GBp per therm Bank/broker range Consultants range Bank/broker average Consultants average
  • 11. Appendix Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 11 Brent oil price estimates This data is effective as of 11 March 2022. Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports. * Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank and broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports. Sources: Consultant websites and reports; Oxford Economics. Bank/broker 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) 2025 (US$/bbl) 2026 (US$/bbl) High 110.0 100.0 100.0 92.5 Average 91.5 83.5 78.9 73.0 Median 94.3 82.5 80.0 76.3 Low 66.0 63.0 52.1 55.2 Consultant 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) 2025 (US$/bbl) 2026 (US$/bbl) High 105.2 89.0 76.7 80.4 82.1 Average 98.6 82.6 70.9 71.8 73.0 Median 99.6 83.3 71.1 72.7 74.1 Low 93.6 78.0 62.2 62.0 62.5 Note: Due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, the price analysis for the years 2022 and 2023 only includes forecasts that were updated subsequent to 24 February 2022. For the-long term forecast (2024 onward), all of the estimates released since 1 January 2022 have been considered (excluding the IEA, which was published in October 2021).
  • 12. Appendix Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 12 WTI oil price estimates This data is effective as of 11 March 2022. Bank/broker 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) 2025 (US$/bbl) 2026 (US$/bbl) High 108.0 92.0 95.2 90.3 Average 85.4 77.0 73.3 68.5 Median 85.3 77.0 72.6 69.2 Low 62.0 60.0 53.7 55.0 Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports. *Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank and broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports. Consultant 2022 (US$/bbl) 2023 (US$/bbl) 2024 (US$/bbl) 2025 (US$/bbl) 2026 (US$/bbl) High 101.2 85.0 73.3 76.7 78.2 Average 95.2 79.7 68.8 69.5 70.4 Median 95.1 80.6 68.0 68.6 70.0 Low 89.9 75.4 65.0 63.4 60.0 Sources: Consultant websites and reports; Oxford Economics; EY analysis. Note: Due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, the price analysis for the years 2022 and 2023 only includes forecasts that were updated subsequent to 24 February 2022. For the-long term forecast (2024 onward), all of the estimates released since 1 January 2022 have been considered.
  • 13. Appendix Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 13 Henry Hub gas price estimates This data is effective as of 11 March 2022. Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports. * Where brokers have reported figures in US$/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu. ** Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank and broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports. Sources: Consultant websites and reports; Oxford Economics. Bank/broker 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu) 2025 (US$/MMBtu) 2026 (US$/MMBtu) High 4.9 4.5 4.0 4.0 Average 4.2 3.6 3.5 3.5 Median 4.1 3.7 3.5 3.7 Low 3.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 Consultant 2022 (US$/MMBtu) 2023 (US$/MMBtu) 2024 (US$/MMBtu) 2025 (US$/MMBtu) 2026 (US$/MMBtu) High 4.6 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.3 Average 4.2 3.6 3.1 3.1 3.2 Median 4.1 3.5 3.1 3.2 3.3 Low 4.0 3.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 Note: Due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, the price analysis for the years 2022 and 2023 only includes forecasts that were updated subsequent to 24 February 2022. For the-long term forecast (2024 onward), all of the estimates released since 1 January 2022 have been considered (excluding the IEA, which was published in October 2021).
  • 14. Appendix Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 14 UK NBP gas price estimates This data is effective as of 11 March 2022. Bank/broker 2022 (£/therm) 2023 (£/therm) 2024 (£/therm) 2025 (£/therm) 2026 (£/therm) High 176.6 110.3 75.0 60.0 Average 150.8 87.6 64.6 60.0 Median 150.8 87.6 60.0 60.0 Low 125.0 65.0 58.7 60.0 Consultant 2022 (£/therm) 2023 (£/therm) 2024 (£/therm) 2025 (£/therm) 2026 (£/therm) High 218.7 148.1 92.6 59.8 61.0 Average 164.9 109.7 68.7 55.7 56.2 Median 164.9 109.7 59.0 59.3 60.4 Low 111.2 71.2 54.6 48.0 47.3 Sources: Bloomberg; bank/broker reports. * Where brokers have reported figures in US$/mcf, we have used a conversion ratio of 1.037 for mcf conversion to MMBtu and the broker’s forecasted foreign exchange rates. ** Certain price estimates included within the summary above may reflect real vs. nominal pricing as the bank and broker assumptions are not explicitly stated within Bloomberg or the respective reports. Sources: Consultant websites and reports; Oxford Economics. * Where consultants have reported figures in US$/MMBtu, we have used the particular consultant’s forecast of the foreign exchange rate for the purpose of our conversion. Note: Due to the impact of the war in Ukraine, the price analysis for the years 2022 and 2023 only includes forecasts that were updated subsequent to 24 February 2022. For the-long term forecast (2024 onward), all of the estimates released since 1 January 2022 have been considered.
  • 15. Key contacts Q2 | April 2022 EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook Page 15 Important notice Price outlook data included in this publication is effective as of 11 March 2022. Given the rapidly evolving nature of the market and the views of market participants, an analysis can quickly become outdated. It should be noted that the EY analysis is not for the purpose of providing an independent view of the outlook for oil and gas prices. Instead, we are collating the views of market participants. Price outlook data should not be applied mechanistically. Instead, careful consideration should be given to the purpose of any value assessment, with price forecasts assessed in the context of other key assumptions, such as resources and reserves classifications, production rates, discount rates and cost escalation rates, together with an appreciation of the key sensitivities in any such analysis. Gary Donald EY Global Oil & Gas Assurance Leader +44 20 7951 7518 Derek Leith EY Global Oil & Gas Tax Leader +44 1224 653 246 Andy Brogan EY Global Oil & Gas Leader +44 20 7951 7009 David Johnston Americas Strategy and Transactions Energy Leader +1 713 750 1527 Gaurav Ghoge EY Global Oil & Gas Strategy Execution Leader + 1 713 750 4890 Paul Bogenrieder EY Global Lead O& Gas Analyst +1 813 508 1423
  • 16. EY | Building a better working world EY exists to build a better working world, helping create long-term value for clients, people and society and build trust in the capital markets. Enabled by data and technology, diverse EY teams in over 150 countries provide trust through assurance and help clients grow, transform and operate. Working across assurance, consulting, law, strategy, tax and transactions, EY teams ask better questions to find new answers for the complex issues facing our world today. EY refers to the global organization, and may refer to one or more, of the member firms of Ernst & Young Global Limited, each of which is a separate legal entity. Ernst & Young Global Limited, a UK company limited by guarantee, does not provide services to clients. Information about how EY collects and uses personal data and a description of the rights individuals have under data protection legislation are available via ey.com/privacy. EY member firms do not practice law where prohibited by local laws. For more information about our organization, please visit ey.com. How EY’s Global Oil & Gas team can help you As changing demand and pricing volatility transform the oil and gas industry, companies must reshape to thrive in this new energy world. But how do you balance the immediate cost and regulatory pressures of “now” with investment in what comes “next”? EY’s Global Oil & Gas team brings together the breadth of experience and talent needed to approach the entire transformation process. By considering four key pillars of change — structure and culture, customers, technology, and skills and capabilities — we can help you adapt for today and reap the opportunities of tomorrow. And together we can build a better working world. © 2022 EYGM Limited. All Rights Reserved. EYG no. 002911-22Gbl ED None This material has been prepared for general informational purposes only and is not intended to be relied upon as accounting, tax, legal or other professional advice. Please refer to your advisors for specific advice. ey.com