This document discusses how OPEC and the G-77 coalition have undermined progress in international climate negotiations. Specifically:
1) OPEC seeks to maintain high oil prices and avoid emissions reductions that could lower prices, so it obstructs climate negotiations. However, high oil prices and climate change both hurt developing countries.
2) The G-77 sometimes tacitly supports OPEC's obstruction, despite having members with diverging interests, due to desires for unity and weaker negotiation capacity compared to OPEC.
3) OPEC's influence within the G-77 stems from its strong negotiation capabilities and shared interests with some G-77 members in maintaining oil revenues and prices. This comprom
This document provides a summary of oil price history and trends from 1986 to 2012 based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. It notes that oil prices generally increased over this period, with the exception of a dip in 2008-2009. The document also discusses factors that influence oil prices such as seasonal demand changes, geopolitical events, and increasing demand from developing countries like China and India. Overall, the document analyzes historical oil price data and identifies key economic and geopolitical drivers that have impacted prices over time.
Crude oil is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon found in rock formations underground. It is formed from the remains of ancient organisms over millions of years. Crude oil is a dark, flammable liquid that can be refined into fuels like gasoline and burned to create energy. The price of crude oil fluctuates based on global supply and demand factors. Technological advances have increased oil production in the US and Canada, leading to oversupply and a drop in prices in recent years. Lower oil prices benefit economies that import oil but hurt export-dependent countries.
OPEC is an intergovernmental organization comprised of 11 developing countries whose economies are heavily reliant on oil revenues. Within OPEC, Saudi Arabia has often played a dominant role in climate negotiations due to its large oil production and close ties to the oil industry. However, OPEC is a heterogeneous group with differing interests. While OPEC brings negotiating experience and resources to the G77, Saudi Arabia in particular has opposed emissions reductions and disrupted negotiations by linking issues in a way that frustrates other G77 countries. This report analyzes OPEC's role within the G77 in UNFCCC negotiations and its implications for other developing nations.
The document discusses OPEC's role as a monopoly in the global oil market and how it can influence prices. It outlines factors like increased winter demand, supply disruptions, and OPEC's decision to increase production by 800,000 barrels per day to lower prices. However, this small increase is unlikely to significantly impact prices given total world consumption growth. The US oil industry has consolidated since the 1970s, making companies larger and better able to compete with OPEC. Alternative energy sources may eventually replace oil but have not been fully developed yet.
The document discusses the history of petroleum politics and the formation of OPEC. It notes that the Achnacarry Agreements established price control in the 1930s in response to an oil boom. OPEC was formed in 1960 by Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to give producing countries more control over oil incomes. Through production quotas and cooperation, OPEC gained the ability to control oil prices in the 1970s. The oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 demonstrated this power and increased prices. However, OPEC lost influence in the 1980s due to new producers and internal conflicts.
- John D. Rockefeller founded Standard Oil in 1870 and by 1877 it controlled over 90% of the American oil refining industry. The invention of the combustion engine in 1895 drove increased oil demand and exploration.
- Major oil discoveries were made in the 1930s-40s in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, shifting oil production away from the US. This started America's growing reliance on foreign oil. OPEC was formed in 1960 to give oil exporting countries more leverage.
- Significant events and oil price fluctuations followed, including the 1973 Arab oil embargo against the US and price spikes in the late 1970s and 2008. The BP Gulf of Mexico oil spill in 2010 was the largest and most catastrophic oil spill in history
This document provides a summary of oil price history and trends from 1986 to 2012 based on data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. It notes that oil prices generally increased over this period, with the exception of a dip in 2008-2009. The document also discusses factors that influence oil prices such as seasonal demand changes, geopolitical events, and increasing demand from developing countries like China and India. Overall, the document analyzes historical oil price data and identifies key economic and geopolitical drivers that have impacted prices over time.
Crude oil is a naturally occurring hydrocarbon found in rock formations underground. It is formed from the remains of ancient organisms over millions of years. Crude oil is a dark, flammable liquid that can be refined into fuels like gasoline and burned to create energy. The price of crude oil fluctuates based on global supply and demand factors. Technological advances have increased oil production in the US and Canada, leading to oversupply and a drop in prices in recent years. Lower oil prices benefit economies that import oil but hurt export-dependent countries.
OPEC is an intergovernmental organization comprised of 11 developing countries whose economies are heavily reliant on oil revenues. Within OPEC, Saudi Arabia has often played a dominant role in climate negotiations due to its large oil production and close ties to the oil industry. However, OPEC is a heterogeneous group with differing interests. While OPEC brings negotiating experience and resources to the G77, Saudi Arabia in particular has opposed emissions reductions and disrupted negotiations by linking issues in a way that frustrates other G77 countries. This report analyzes OPEC's role within the G77 in UNFCCC negotiations and its implications for other developing nations.
The document discusses OPEC's role as a monopoly in the global oil market and how it can influence prices. It outlines factors like increased winter demand, supply disruptions, and OPEC's decision to increase production by 800,000 barrels per day to lower prices. However, this small increase is unlikely to significantly impact prices given total world consumption growth. The US oil industry has consolidated since the 1970s, making companies larger and better able to compete with OPEC. Alternative energy sources may eventually replace oil but have not been fully developed yet.
The document discusses the history of petroleum politics and the formation of OPEC. It notes that the Achnacarry Agreements established price control in the 1930s in response to an oil boom. OPEC was formed in 1960 by Venezuela, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to give producing countries more control over oil incomes. Through production quotas and cooperation, OPEC gained the ability to control oil prices in the 1970s. The oil shocks of 1973 and 1979 demonstrated this power and increased prices. However, OPEC lost influence in the 1980s due to new producers and internal conflicts.
- John D. Rockefeller founded Standard Oil in 1870 and by 1877 it controlled over 90% of the American oil refining industry. The invention of the combustion engine in 1895 drove increased oil demand and exploration.
- Major oil discoveries were made in the 1930s-40s in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, shifting oil production away from the US. This started America's growing reliance on foreign oil. OPEC was formed in 1960 to give oil exporting countries more leverage.
- Significant events and oil price fluctuations followed, including the 1973 Arab oil embargo against the US and price spikes in the late 1970s and 2008. The BP Gulf of Mexico oil spill in 2010 was the largest and most catastrophic oil spill in history
Oil prices falling and Their Impact on World and Indian EconomyRishabh Hurkat
The presentations is focused on Reason Behind the Fall in Global Crude Oil Prices.
It also inculcates various Charts and Data which are Up-to-date.
The Basic Reason is to understand the Effect on Global and Indian Economy.
OPEC was established in 1960 with the principal aim of coordinating petroleum policies and protecting the interests of member countries. It currently accounts for 40% of global crude oil production and 55% of internationally traded oil. Throughout its history, OPEC has shifted from having no major role in price setting before 1970 to gaining control of prices in the 1970s. It has faced challenges maintaining quotas and market share while balancing supply and demand fluctuations to keep oil prices stable.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a cartel that aims to support higher oil prices through production quotas. After operating quietly in the 1960s, OPEC was able to significantly raise oil prices in the 1970s in response to increased demand and control over half of global oil production. Individual oil-producing nations previously acted as price-takers, but by restricting competition OPEC members gained leverage over oil prices.
Impact of Oil Prices on the Economic Growth of PakistanMuhammad Sharjeel
We gathered data from different resources and then finalize our presentation. The intention to upload this file is to help those guys who need some guidelines for preparing presentation. :)
declining crude oil pricing:causes and global impactSatyam Mishra
The document discusses the recent decline in global crude oil prices, providing an overview of key causes and impacts. It notes that falling oil prices benefit oil importing countries but hurt exporters. Technological advances in extraction led to increased supply while demand weakened, contributing to the price drop. While lower prices aid consumers, they reduce revenues for exporters like Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Iran.
Oil majors and traders role of opec,ocimf & intertankoKapilLamba6
The document discusses several topics related to the oil and gas industry including:
- Big Oil refers to the world's largest publicly traded oil and gas companies, also known as supermajors, which include BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, and ConocoPhillips.
- OPEC is an intergovernmental organization made up of 13 oil producing countries that aims to coordinate oil policies and ensure stability in the oil market. Major OPEC members include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Venezuela.
- INTERTANKO is an association representing independent tanker owners worldwide with over 190 members. It works on operational,
Crude oil is a naturally occurring fossil fuel that is refined into many consumer products. It is a black, thick liquid called "black gold" due to its economic importance as a non-renewable resource where demand exceeds supply, leading to price increases. An international organization called OPEC controls global oil prices. Rising prices negatively impact economies by increasing inflation, slowing growth, and reducing employment. Alternatives to petroleum such as natural gas, biodiesel, hybrids, and renewable energy can help address these issues.
Oil prices are falling due to increased global supply outpacing demand, as well as increased production from countries like the US, Libya, and OPEC members refusing to cut production. Lower oil prices benefit economies that are net oil importers, like the US, India, and parts of Europe, but hurt exporters like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. In India, falling prices reduce subsidy costs for the government, but also lower inflation and transportation costs, benefitting consumers.
1. Global supply of oil has surpassed demand, resulting in falling prices. Increased output from Libya, the US shale oil boom, and tepid Asian demand have all contributed to higher supply.
2. Factors putting downward pressure on prices include a slowdown in the Eurozone economy and infighting within OPEC as members try to maintain market share.
3. High oil prices can lead to recessions as people spend only on necessities, hurting businesses and government finances through reduced growth and tax collection. Housing prices and overall economic activity also tend to suffer.
What the drop in oil prices means for the economy and office marketsJLL
Lower oil prices will negatively impact energy companies through reduced profit margins and capital spending cuts, leading to potential job losses. However, lower gas prices provide an economic stimulus for consumers and other industries through substantial savings. While energy-focused office markets may see weaker demand from energy companies scaling back, the broader economic benefits of low oil prices and diversifying economies will help offset negative impacts on office fundamentals. The long-term impact on office markets depends on the level of mergers and acquisitions in the energy sector and whether prices remain low, increasing vacant space through consolidation.
The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, is in its deepest downturn since the 1990s, if not earlier.
Earnings are down for companies that made record profits in recent years, leading them to decommission more than two-thirds of their rigs and sharply cut investment in exploration and production. Scores of companies have gone bankrupt and an estimated 250,000 oil workers have lost their jobs.
The cause is the plunging price of a barrel of oil, which has fallen more than 70 percent since June 2014.
Prices recovered a few times last year, but a barrel of oil has already sunk this year to its lowest level since 2004. Executives think it will be years before oil returns to $90 or $100 a barrel, a price that was pretty much the norm over the last decade.
Brent crude, the main international benchmark, was trading at around $29.64 ( 21st February 2016) a barrel on Saturday.
United States production has surged in recent years as the shale boom took off. That has helped create a glut of oil as major producers like Saudi Arabia continue to pump at high levels.
Impact of crude oil prices on Pakistan economy 2015UmerMukhtarAhmed
When oil and shale boom hit the economy of oil exporting countries it also help the oil importing countries to save some money. This journal is written to show what happens with the Pakistan economy during toil boom.
The document discusses how geopolitics impacts oil and gas markets. It outlines several geopolitical factors, including conflicts in the Persian Gulf region which contains over half of global oil reserves. Military threats, domestic instability, and disputes over Caspian Basin resources all pose risks. Over 90% of Gulf oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and any closure could drastically increase prices. Wars like the Gulf War and Iraq War led to supply disruptions and price volatility. Geography also influences gas markets due to high transportation costs via pipelines.
Oil is the major
source of energy from most of the developed as well as developing countries around the world.
Therefore a change in the supply of oil will significantly affect operations in most parts of the
world. There are a number of factors that affect the demand and supply of oil in the world.
- See more at: http://www.customwritingservice.org/blog/factors-affecting-demand-and-supply-of-oil
This document discusses the oil price and its impact. It begins by outlining the importance of oil and its many uses. It then discusses the economics of oil supply and demand and how they are inelastic, leading to large price fluctuations. It outlines some major oil price benchmarks and describes key oil producing and consuming countries. The document then analyzes how volatility in oil prices impacts both global and Indian economies. It concludes by discussing India's vision for increasing energy self-sufficiency and alternative energy sources that may play a larger role in the future.
Lower crude oil prices are having widespread effects on the global economy. Prices have fallen 50% in recent months, benefitting oil importing countries but hurting exporters. Key reasons for the drop include low demand, high production from countries like Iraq and the US, and OPEC countries choosing not to cut supply. The fall in costs is leading to lower inflation and potential higher economic output in oil importing nations. However, it poses challenges for alternative energy and could delay investments to reduce dependence on oil. Share markets and some industries are also being negatively impacted by the continued decline in crude prices.
The document summarizes the key factors that caused the 2014 and 2015 oil price crashes. In 2014, high oil prices from 2010-2014 led to record investment in oil production but also a slowing of demand growth. This caused an imbalance of rising supply and slowing demand. Additionally, OPEC changed its strategy to maintain market share amid rising non-OPEC supply. In 2015, OPEC increased production further while long-lead projects also added supply, exacerbating the imbalance as inventories rose sharply. Lower prices have since spurred demand growth but supply is expected to face challenges to keep rising at the same pace due to investment cuts, meaning prices may need to rise to balance the market.
OPEC aims to stabilize oil prices and control production, but it has limited impact and prices remain volatile. While OPEC cuts have accelerated the market rebalancing, US shale growth poses a challenge and could offset OPEC's efforts. The future of prices depends on how quickly global inventories decline versus the reactivation of US supply in response to higher prices. OPEC has little ability to determine long-term prices and is more of a price-taker reacting to outside market forces.
Opec - Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Vikas C
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent, intergovernmental Organization, was established in Baghdad.
OPEC comprised 12 members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates Venezuela.
Petrodollar is a United State dollar earned by the country through the sale of petroleum.
Shale oil is an unconventional oil produced from oil shale rock fragments by pyrolysis, hydrogenation, or thermal dissolution. These processes convert the organic matter within the rock into synthetic oil & gas.
OPEC Share of World Crude Oil Reserves - According to current estimates, more than 81% of the world's proven oil reserves are located in OPEC Member Countries, with the bulk of OPEC oil reserves in the Middle East, amounting to 66% of the OPEC total.
80% of the world's oil reserves are located in just 13 countries which make up OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). Algeria, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Angola, Indonesia, Ecuador, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
This report discusses the recent decline in oil prices and the battle between OPEC and the United States for control of the oil market. Oil prices fell from over $110 per barrel in 2014 to under $50 per barrel in early 2015 due to increased production from the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries. While lower prices benefited consumers and some economies, they hurt oil-producing countries. The U.S. has significantly increased oil production in recent years through fracking and other methods. As a result, OPEC is losing its dominance over the oil market and control over prices. The oversupply of oil from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers means prices are expected to remain low
Oil prices falling and Their Impact on World and Indian EconomyRishabh Hurkat
The presentations is focused on Reason Behind the Fall in Global Crude Oil Prices.
It also inculcates various Charts and Data which are Up-to-date.
The Basic Reason is to understand the Effect on Global and Indian Economy.
OPEC was established in 1960 with the principal aim of coordinating petroleum policies and protecting the interests of member countries. It currently accounts for 40% of global crude oil production and 55% of internationally traded oil. Throughout its history, OPEC has shifted from having no major role in price setting before 1970 to gaining control of prices in the 1970s. It has faced challenges maintaining quotas and market share while balancing supply and demand fluctuations to keep oil prices stable.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a cartel that aims to support higher oil prices through production quotas. After operating quietly in the 1960s, OPEC was able to significantly raise oil prices in the 1970s in response to increased demand and control over half of global oil production. Individual oil-producing nations previously acted as price-takers, but by restricting competition OPEC members gained leverage over oil prices.
Impact of Oil Prices on the Economic Growth of PakistanMuhammad Sharjeel
We gathered data from different resources and then finalize our presentation. The intention to upload this file is to help those guys who need some guidelines for preparing presentation. :)
declining crude oil pricing:causes and global impactSatyam Mishra
The document discusses the recent decline in global crude oil prices, providing an overview of key causes and impacts. It notes that falling oil prices benefit oil importing countries but hurt exporters. Technological advances in extraction led to increased supply while demand weakened, contributing to the price drop. While lower prices aid consumers, they reduce revenues for exporters like Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Iran.
Oil majors and traders role of opec,ocimf & intertankoKapilLamba6
The document discusses several topics related to the oil and gas industry including:
- Big Oil refers to the world's largest publicly traded oil and gas companies, also known as supermajors, which include BP, Chevron, Eni, ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Total, and ConocoPhillips.
- OPEC is an intergovernmental organization made up of 13 oil producing countries that aims to coordinate oil policies and ensure stability in the oil market. Major OPEC members include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Venezuela.
- INTERTANKO is an association representing independent tanker owners worldwide with over 190 members. It works on operational,
Crude oil is a naturally occurring fossil fuel that is refined into many consumer products. It is a black, thick liquid called "black gold" due to its economic importance as a non-renewable resource where demand exceeds supply, leading to price increases. An international organization called OPEC controls global oil prices. Rising prices negatively impact economies by increasing inflation, slowing growth, and reducing employment. Alternatives to petroleum such as natural gas, biodiesel, hybrids, and renewable energy can help address these issues.
Oil prices are falling due to increased global supply outpacing demand, as well as increased production from countries like the US, Libya, and OPEC members refusing to cut production. Lower oil prices benefit economies that are net oil importers, like the US, India, and parts of Europe, but hurt exporters like Russia, Iran, and Venezuela. In India, falling prices reduce subsidy costs for the government, but also lower inflation and transportation costs, benefitting consumers.
1. Global supply of oil has surpassed demand, resulting in falling prices. Increased output from Libya, the US shale oil boom, and tepid Asian demand have all contributed to higher supply.
2. Factors putting downward pressure on prices include a slowdown in the Eurozone economy and infighting within OPEC as members try to maintain market share.
3. High oil prices can lead to recessions as people spend only on necessities, hurting businesses and government finances through reduced growth and tax collection. Housing prices and overall economic activity also tend to suffer.
What the drop in oil prices means for the economy and office marketsJLL
Lower oil prices will negatively impact energy companies through reduced profit margins and capital spending cuts, leading to potential job losses. However, lower gas prices provide an economic stimulus for consumers and other industries through substantial savings. While energy-focused office markets may see weaker demand from energy companies scaling back, the broader economic benefits of low oil prices and diversifying economies will help offset negative impacts on office fundamentals. The long-term impact on office markets depends on the level of mergers and acquisitions in the energy sector and whether prices remain low, increasing vacant space through consolidation.
The oil industry, with its history of booms and busts, is in its deepest downturn since the 1990s, if not earlier.
Earnings are down for companies that made record profits in recent years, leading them to decommission more than two-thirds of their rigs and sharply cut investment in exploration and production. Scores of companies have gone bankrupt and an estimated 250,000 oil workers have lost their jobs.
The cause is the plunging price of a barrel of oil, which has fallen more than 70 percent since June 2014.
Prices recovered a few times last year, but a barrel of oil has already sunk this year to its lowest level since 2004. Executives think it will be years before oil returns to $90 or $100 a barrel, a price that was pretty much the norm over the last decade.
Brent crude, the main international benchmark, was trading at around $29.64 ( 21st February 2016) a barrel on Saturday.
United States production has surged in recent years as the shale boom took off. That has helped create a glut of oil as major producers like Saudi Arabia continue to pump at high levels.
Impact of crude oil prices on Pakistan economy 2015UmerMukhtarAhmed
When oil and shale boom hit the economy of oil exporting countries it also help the oil importing countries to save some money. This journal is written to show what happens with the Pakistan economy during toil boom.
The document discusses how geopolitics impacts oil and gas markets. It outlines several geopolitical factors, including conflicts in the Persian Gulf region which contains over half of global oil reserves. Military threats, domestic instability, and disputes over Caspian Basin resources all pose risks. Over 90% of Gulf oil exports pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and any closure could drastically increase prices. Wars like the Gulf War and Iraq War led to supply disruptions and price volatility. Geography also influences gas markets due to high transportation costs via pipelines.
Oil is the major
source of energy from most of the developed as well as developing countries around the world.
Therefore a change in the supply of oil will significantly affect operations in most parts of the
world. There are a number of factors that affect the demand and supply of oil in the world.
- See more at: http://www.customwritingservice.org/blog/factors-affecting-demand-and-supply-of-oil
This document discusses the oil price and its impact. It begins by outlining the importance of oil and its many uses. It then discusses the economics of oil supply and demand and how they are inelastic, leading to large price fluctuations. It outlines some major oil price benchmarks and describes key oil producing and consuming countries. The document then analyzes how volatility in oil prices impacts both global and Indian economies. It concludes by discussing India's vision for increasing energy self-sufficiency and alternative energy sources that may play a larger role in the future.
Lower crude oil prices are having widespread effects on the global economy. Prices have fallen 50% in recent months, benefitting oil importing countries but hurting exporters. Key reasons for the drop include low demand, high production from countries like Iraq and the US, and OPEC countries choosing not to cut supply. The fall in costs is leading to lower inflation and potential higher economic output in oil importing nations. However, it poses challenges for alternative energy and could delay investments to reduce dependence on oil. Share markets and some industries are also being negatively impacted by the continued decline in crude prices.
The document summarizes the key factors that caused the 2014 and 2015 oil price crashes. In 2014, high oil prices from 2010-2014 led to record investment in oil production but also a slowing of demand growth. This caused an imbalance of rising supply and slowing demand. Additionally, OPEC changed its strategy to maintain market share amid rising non-OPEC supply. In 2015, OPEC increased production further while long-lead projects also added supply, exacerbating the imbalance as inventories rose sharply. Lower prices have since spurred demand growth but supply is expected to face challenges to keep rising at the same pace due to investment cuts, meaning prices may need to rise to balance the market.
OPEC aims to stabilize oil prices and control production, but it has limited impact and prices remain volatile. While OPEC cuts have accelerated the market rebalancing, US shale growth poses a challenge and could offset OPEC's efforts. The future of prices depends on how quickly global inventories decline versus the reactivation of US supply in response to higher prices. OPEC has little ability to determine long-term prices and is more of a price-taker reacting to outside market forces.
Opec - Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Vikas C
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a permanent, intergovernmental Organization, was established in Baghdad.
OPEC comprised 12 members: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates Venezuela.
Petrodollar is a United State dollar earned by the country through the sale of petroleum.
Shale oil is an unconventional oil produced from oil shale rock fragments by pyrolysis, hydrogenation, or thermal dissolution. These processes convert the organic matter within the rock into synthetic oil & gas.
OPEC Share of World Crude Oil Reserves - According to current estimates, more than 81% of the world's proven oil reserves are located in OPEC Member Countries, with the bulk of OPEC oil reserves in the Middle East, amounting to 66% of the OPEC total.
80% of the world's oil reserves are located in just 13 countries which make up OPEC (the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries). Algeria, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Angola, Indonesia, Ecuador, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
This report discusses the recent decline in oil prices and the battle between OPEC and the United States for control of the oil market. Oil prices fell from over $110 per barrel in 2014 to under $50 per barrel in early 2015 due to increased production from the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries. While lower prices benefited consumers and some economies, they hurt oil-producing countries. The U.S. has significantly increased oil production in recent years through fracking and other methods. As a result, OPEC is losing its dominance over the oil market and control over prices. The oversupply of oil from both OPEC and non-OPEC producers means prices are expected to remain low
The document discusses the relationship between crude oil prices, the rupee-dollar exchange rate, and geopolitical events. It notes that India imports over 3 million barrels of crude oil per day, accounting for over 50% of its exports. When crude oil futures prices increase, it drives up imports and the demand for dollars, putting pressure on the rupee to depreciate against the dollar. Geopolitical events that disrupt global oil supply can also impact crude oil prices by creating uncertainty about future availability, leading to higher price volatility in the short term due to inelastic supply and demand.
EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlookEY
The theme for this quarter is reprieve. Crude prices rose steadily throughout 1Q19 as OPEC+ reigned in production to counteract the impact of North American production growth. What lies ahead is uncertain, but downward pressures loom over the marketplace.
The sustainability of trading profits has always been questioned. Volatility has returned to pre-crisis levels and, absent more disruption, the size of the opportunity will shrink.
See this week's edition of EY Price Point
The document discusses the oil and gas industry in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). It notes that the UAE has significant oil and natural gas reserves, accounting for one-third of the country's GDP. Abu Dhabi is the center of the UAE's oil and gas industry, home to companies like the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company. The document provides details on the UAE's historical development of its oil and gas resources, current production levels and exports, key companies involved, and outlook for future demand and prices.
This document provides an initiating coverage report on Exxon Mobil Corp by The William C. Dunkelberg Owl Fund. It recommends buying Exxon stock with a target price of $88.07, noting that Exxon is currently trading at a discount to its historical valuation relative to competitor Chevron. The report analyzes Exxon's business segments, the integrated oil and gas industry environment of low oil prices and excess supply, and catalysts like expansions that are expected to drive future earnings growth.
OPEC acts as a cartel by controlling the global supply of oil in order to influence prices. As a cartel, OPEC sets production quotas for its members with the goal of maintaining high oil prices. However, the incentive for individual members to cheat on quotas and increase production for higher profits challenges the stability of the cartel. While OPEC was able to significantly impact oil prices in the short-run when demand and supply are inelastic, the cartel has struggled to maintain high prices in the long-run as demand and supply of oil become more elastic. The rise of non-OPEC oil producers has also eroded OPEC's ability to single-handedly control global oil supply and
The document summarizes a speech given by David Greer, CEO of Regal Petroleum, about challenges facing the oil and gas industry in the coming decade. It discusses how the 2008 financial crisis impacted both "Drillers" (E&P companies) and "Dealers" (bankers), forcing them to adjust business models. It also examines uncertainties around the economic recovery, future oil and gas demand and supply, and ensuring adequate skilled labor in the industry. The outlook for Drillers and Dealers remains uncertain as they must adapt to new challenges in seeking to meet global energy needs over the long term.
Total operates in the global oil and gas business environment, facing challenges in exploration and exploitation activities. Exploration requires dealing with physical geology, geopolitical factors, and unstable political conditions in some countries like Bolivia, Libya, and Burma that have impacted Total's operations. Exploitation requires advanced offshore drilling technologies as oil reserves are in deeper waters, with Total developing fields in deep sea areas of Angola, Nigeria, and other regions. Maintaining technological capabilities is crucial for Total to remain competitive in accessing new reserves as traditional oil becomes harder to find and produce.
This document discusses how the oil and gas industry will be transformed by the COVID-19 pandemic and ongoing decarbonization efforts. It outlines four potential post-pandemic scenarios for the industry: 1) "Back to Normal" with a quick economic recovery and no climate progress; 2) "Stagnation" with weak demand and continued renewable adoption; 3) "Severe Injury" with slow recovery, demand destruction, and oversupply; and 4) "New Normal" with moderate recovery and climate policies slowing demand. It analyzes how different industry players like international oil companies, national oil companies, refiners, and oilfield services will be impacted under these scenarios.
Between 2014-2015, crude oil prices fell more than 50% due to excess supply and uncertain demand. The US has increased shale oil production, reducing imports and maintaining high stock levels. China's economic slowdown has weakened oil demand. Saudi Arabia wants to maintain market share by keeping production high to weaken shale producers' profitability. Low prices are expected to continue into 2018 as supply remains high and demand growth slows. Energy companies must optimize operations to improve efficiency in this challenging market.
This undergraduate report analyzes the effects of changes in oil supply on crude oil prices. The author conducts a literature review on how factors like oil production, market share of producers, reserves and inventories, extraction capability, and income influence prices. A regression model is developed to test the relationship between quarterly WTI and Brent oil prices from 1990 to 2016 with variables for US and OPEC production, market shares, US inventory levels, oil rig counts, and US GDP per capita. The author aims to predict future oil price movements based on supply conditions.
Special Report - Aferthoughts on the OPEC agreementAmir Khan
1. OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreed to cut oil production by 1.8 million barrels per day in an effort to boost falling oil prices. OPEC will cut around 1.2 million bpd, with the largest cuts from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, and Kuwait. Russia and other non-OPEC countries will cut around 0.6 million bpd, led by 0.3 million from Russia.
2. The agreement led to an initial spike in oil prices over 15% to $54/barrel. However, implementation risks remain from countries like Iraq and uncertainties around continued cooperation from Russia. Oil prices are expected to remain in a $50-60/
- The oil market has changed significantly in recent years due to the US shale revolution and increasing concerns about climate change.
- The growth of US shale oil production challenged the assumption that oil is an exhaustible resource, as estimates of recoverable oil reserves have increased much faster than consumption.
- Concerns about climate change mean it is unlikely that all of the world's oil reserves will be burned, removing expectations that oil prices will inevitably rise over time. Instead, prices will depend on supply and demand fundamentals.
An Investigation of Crude Oil and its Implication for Financial Markets Priesnell Warren ✔
This research paper seeks to unearth the possible repercussions of fluctuations in Crude Oil markets and how they will affect global trade and financial markets. Crude oil or Black Gold is one of the world’s most precious commodities as its change in price affects the entire economy.
Special Report - Is the OPEC Agreement a Game Changer?Amir Khan
Contrary to expectations, OPEC managed to reach an agreement at the sidelines of the Global Energy Forum held in Algiers. But it's too early to say this will be turning for the oil market.
This presentation covers factors that caused the petroleum industry to decline during the 1980s, and then leading to the recovery beginning in 2008 through some possible future development trajectories.
Oil : what price can america afford before recession ?christophemangeant
Oil prices have historically played a central role in US recessions. The document analyzes historical oil price data and identifies three rules to avoid recession: 1) oil expenditures should not exceed 4% of GDP, 2) oil prices should not increase over 50% year-over-year, and 3) annual oil demand reductions should not exceed 0.8% of GDP. The document then evaluates three policy approaches - prioritizing climate change, balancing climate and economic concerns, or prioritizing economic stability - in light of the identified rules and volatility in oil markets.
The document is an application form for joining the Eco-Warriors project, requesting personal information, education history, volunteering experience, work history, language skills, and answers to essay questions about the applicant's interest in environmental issues and their fit for the fellowship.
This document discusses the prospects for a new international climate agreement. It notes that climate negotiations are extremely complex, covering issues like development, energy, trade, and more. The current UN process involves two working groups addressing mitigation, adaptation, finance, and more. Reaching agreement has been difficult due to gaps between developed and developing countries over responsibility for emissions reductions and finance. The Cancun conference in 2010 will be important for rebuilding trust in the UN process and making progress toward a new global climate regime.
Zero Waste is a goal and philosophy that seeks to eliminate waste through redesigning production and consumption systems. It aims to achieve clean production through phasing out toxic materials and reducing environmental impacts from waste treatment. Key principles of Zero Waste include Extended Producer Responsibility, where producers are responsible for the lifecycles of their products, and the Precautionary Principle, which prohibits technologies unless their safety can be ensured. Implementing Zero Waste would help close material loops and enable more sustainable resource management.
This document discusses how waste and waste management practices like incineration contribute to climate change and greenhouse gas emissions. It provides statistics showing that incinerators emit more carbon dioxide per unit of energy than coal, oil, or natural gas. The document also notes that recycling, composting, and zero waste are more cost-effective approaches that produce fewer emissions than incineration or landfilling with gas capture. It provides examples of successful small-scale composting and recycling initiatives in various countries that are alternatives to waste incineration.
Zero Waste programs in San Francisco can dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions by decreasing upstream waste and diverting food and other compostable materials from landfills. San Francisco has adopted a goal of zero waste by 2020 and has policies and programs like pay-as-you-throw pricing and mandatory recycling and composting to support this. These programs have already helped reduce San Francisco's landfill disposal to its lowest levels in 40 years while increasing composting collection.
The document discusses different types and structures of steering committees, including working committees, strategic committees, and advisory councils. It lists the key roles of a steering committee as providing strategic direction, building positions, restructuring, fundraising, accountability, and conflict resolution. Some suggested directions are for a self-perpetuating committee based on criteria that takes a supportive role in tasks, activation, and fundraising while setting processes and making critical decisions. Potential problem points include the coordination team taking on too much work and a lack of proactive and coordinated global efforts.
The document presents an overview of the issues with waste incineration by Ann Leonard at the Zero Waste Conference in Beirut in July 2010. It argues that incinerators waste resources, emit toxic pollution, depend on continued landfill use, encourage more waste production, undermine real solutions like zero waste, drain funds from the local economy, create few jobs, waste energy, are politically unpopular, contradict UN conventions, and are outdated compared to zero waste alternatives.
1) The document discusses the key elements needed for a comprehensive, legally binding outcome from the Copenhagen climate change conference (COP15). This includes resolving substantive issues like mitigation commitments and financing, agreeing on what each party is legally obligated to do, and deciding on the legal framework.
2) The outcome must be captured in a legal text or instrument, rather than just separate COP decisions. It should not allow reopening of negotiations and must build on the Kyoto Protocol.
3) Industrialized countries must commit to ambitious emission reductions and a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol. They must also provide sufficient long-term financing to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation.
This document discusses the essential elements needed for a successful climate change agreement in Copenhagen. It argues that the agreement must commit to keeping global warming below 2 degrees Celsius by reducing greenhouse gas concentrations to 350 ppm CO2e and peaking global emissions by 2017 with an 80% reduction by 2050. Developed countries should collectively reduce emissions over 40% below 1990 levels by 2020, with targets assigned based on responsibility and capacity. The agreement should also commit $195 billion annually by 2020 from developed to developing countries for mitigation and adaptation, and make outcomes legally binding and enforceable.
A matrix for the position of each Arab country in the UN climate negotiations taken from submissions or from direct communication with delegates. This document is work in progress and will be updated regularely
This document summarizes Saudi Arabia's role as an obstructionist in climate change negotiations over many years. It analyzes how Saudi Arabia, due to its oil-dependent economy, has taken positions aimed at preventing or weakening agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While acknowledging the complexity of impacts on oil exporters, Saudi Arabia has consistently emphasized potential negative economic consequences. It has also been skeptical of climate science and critical of the IPCC's findings. Saudi Arabia's obstructionism has included explicitly weakening proposals and regularly seeking to stall negotiations or slow down progress toward agreements. It has remained a highly active obstructionist despite the climate change regime developing over many years.
The document discusses the dangers journalists face when reporting on environmental issues in various countries. It provides examples of journalists being threatened, assaulted, imprisoned or going missing for investigating or exposing issues like deforestation, pollution, and mismanagement of natural resources. The threats often come from companies, criminals, corrupt politicians or authorities trying to suppress information about environmental problems for financial gain. Reporting these issues can be dangerous work, as those profiting from environmental destruction will go to great lengths to silence journalists and activists trying to uncover their activities.
This document contains the agenda for a two-day workshop on climate change. Day 1 includes sessions on the climate impacts being witnessed locally, such as insects attacking cedars and changing snow density. There will also be presentations on climate science, carbon budgets, the history of climate policy, and the current status of international climate negotiations. Day 2 focuses on climate media work, building an action plan, and the role of Arab countries in addressing climate change. The workshop aims to raise awareness of urgent climate issues and the importance of the upcoming COP15 climate summit.
Ivanti’s Patch Tuesday breakdown goes beyond patching your applications and brings you the intelligence and guidance needed to prioritize where to focus your attention first. Catch early analysis on our Ivanti blog, then join industry expert Chris Goettl for the Patch Tuesday Webinar Event. There we’ll do a deep dive into each of the bulletins and give guidance on the risks associated with the newly-identified vulnerabilities.
Monitoring and Managing Anomaly Detection on OpenShift.pdfTosin Akinosho
Monitoring and Managing Anomaly Detection on OpenShift
Overview
Dive into the world of anomaly detection on edge devices with our comprehensive hands-on tutorial. This SlideShare presentation will guide you through the entire process, from data collection and model training to edge deployment and real-time monitoring. Perfect for those looking to implement robust anomaly detection systems on resource-constrained IoT/edge devices.
Key Topics Covered
1. Introduction to Anomaly Detection
- Understand the fundamentals of anomaly detection and its importance in identifying unusual behavior or failures in systems.
2. Understanding Edge (IoT)
- Learn about edge computing and IoT, and how they enable real-time data processing and decision-making at the source.
3. What is ArgoCD?
- Discover ArgoCD, a declarative, GitOps continuous delivery tool for Kubernetes, and its role in deploying applications on edge devices.
4. Deployment Using ArgoCD for Edge Devices
- Step-by-step guide on deploying anomaly detection models on edge devices using ArgoCD.
5. Introduction to Apache Kafka and S3
- Explore Apache Kafka for real-time data streaming and Amazon S3 for scalable storage solutions.
6. Viewing Kafka Messages in the Data Lake
- Learn how to view and analyze Kafka messages stored in a data lake for better insights.
7. What is Prometheus?
- Get to know Prometheus, an open-source monitoring and alerting toolkit, and its application in monitoring edge devices.
8. Monitoring Application Metrics with Prometheus
- Detailed instructions on setting up Prometheus to monitor the performance and health of your anomaly detection system.
9. What is Camel K?
- Introduction to Camel K, a lightweight integration framework built on Apache Camel, designed for Kubernetes.
10. Configuring Camel K Integrations for Data Pipelines
- Learn how to configure Camel K for seamless data pipeline integrations in your anomaly detection workflow.
11. What is a Jupyter Notebook?
- Overview of Jupyter Notebooks, an open-source web application for creating and sharing documents with live code, equations, visualizations, and narrative text.
12. Jupyter Notebooks with Code Examples
- Hands-on examples and code snippets in Jupyter Notebooks to help you implement and test anomaly detection models.
Let's Integrate MuleSoft RPA, COMPOSER, APM with AWS IDP along with Slackshyamraj55
Discover the seamless integration of RPA (Robotic Process Automation), COMPOSER, and APM with AWS IDP enhanced with Slack notifications. Explore how these technologies converge to streamline workflows, optimize performance, and ensure secure access, all while leveraging the power of AWS IDP and real-time communication via Slack notifications.
Have you ever been confused by the myriad of choices offered by AWS for hosting a website or an API?
Lambda, Elastic Beanstalk, Lightsail, Amplify, S3 (and more!) can each host websites + APIs. But which one should we choose?
Which one is cheapest? Which one is fastest? Which one will scale to meet our needs?
Join me in this session as we dive into each AWS hosting service to determine which one is best for your scenario and explain why!
HCL Notes und Domino Lizenzkostenreduzierung in der Welt von DLAUpanagenda
Webinar Recording: https://www.panagenda.com/webinars/hcl-notes-und-domino-lizenzkostenreduzierung-in-der-welt-von-dlau/
DLAU und die Lizenzen nach dem CCB- und CCX-Modell sind für viele in der HCL-Community seit letztem Jahr ein heißes Thema. Als Notes- oder Domino-Kunde haben Sie vielleicht mit unerwartet hohen Benutzerzahlen und Lizenzgebühren zu kämpfen. Sie fragen sich vielleicht, wie diese neue Art der Lizenzierung funktioniert und welchen Nutzen sie Ihnen bringt. Vor allem wollen Sie sicherlich Ihr Budget einhalten und Kosten sparen, wo immer möglich. Das verstehen wir und wir möchten Ihnen dabei helfen!
Wir erklären Ihnen, wie Sie häufige Konfigurationsprobleme lösen können, die dazu führen können, dass mehr Benutzer gezählt werden als nötig, und wie Sie überflüssige oder ungenutzte Konten identifizieren und entfernen können, um Geld zu sparen. Es gibt auch einige Ansätze, die zu unnötigen Ausgaben führen können, z. B. wenn ein Personendokument anstelle eines Mail-Ins für geteilte Mailboxen verwendet wird. Wir zeigen Ihnen solche Fälle und deren Lösungen. Und natürlich erklären wir Ihnen das neue Lizenzmodell.
Nehmen Sie an diesem Webinar teil, bei dem HCL-Ambassador Marc Thomas und Gastredner Franz Walder Ihnen diese neue Welt näherbringen. Es vermittelt Ihnen die Tools und das Know-how, um den Überblick zu bewahren. Sie werden in der Lage sein, Ihre Kosten durch eine optimierte Domino-Konfiguration zu reduzieren und auch in Zukunft gering zu halten.
Diese Themen werden behandelt
- Reduzierung der Lizenzkosten durch Auffinden und Beheben von Fehlkonfigurationen und überflüssigen Konten
- Wie funktionieren CCB- und CCX-Lizenzen wirklich?
- Verstehen des DLAU-Tools und wie man es am besten nutzt
- Tipps für häufige Problembereiche, wie z. B. Team-Postfächer, Funktions-/Testbenutzer usw.
- Praxisbeispiele und Best Practices zum sofortigen Umsetzen
Freshworks Rethinks NoSQL for Rapid Scaling & Cost-EfficiencyScyllaDB
Freshworks creates AI-boosted business software that helps employees work more efficiently and effectively. Managing data across multiple RDBMS and NoSQL databases was already a challenge at their current scale. To prepare for 10X growth, they knew it was time to rethink their database strategy. Learn how they architected a solution that would simplify scaling while keeping costs under control.
Trusted Execution Environment for Decentralized Process MiningLucaBarbaro3
Presentation of the paper "Trusted Execution Environment for Decentralized Process Mining" given during the CAiSE 2024 Conference in Cyprus on June 7, 2024.
HCL Notes and Domino License Cost Reduction in the World of DLAUpanagenda
Webinar Recording: https://www.panagenda.com/webinars/hcl-notes-and-domino-license-cost-reduction-in-the-world-of-dlau/
The introduction of DLAU and the CCB & CCX licensing model caused quite a stir in the HCL community. As a Notes and Domino customer, you may have faced challenges with unexpected user counts and license costs. You probably have questions on how this new licensing approach works and how to benefit from it. Most importantly, you likely have budget constraints and want to save money where possible. Don’t worry, we can help with all of this!
We’ll show you how to fix common misconfigurations that cause higher-than-expected user counts, and how to identify accounts which you can deactivate to save money. There are also frequent patterns that can cause unnecessary cost, like using a person document instead of a mail-in for shared mailboxes. We’ll provide examples and solutions for those as well. And naturally we’ll explain the new licensing model.
Join HCL Ambassador Marc Thomas in this webinar with a special guest appearance from Franz Walder. It will give you the tools and know-how to stay on top of what is going on with Domino licensing. You will be able lower your cost through an optimized configuration and keep it low going forward.
These topics will be covered
- Reducing license cost by finding and fixing misconfigurations and superfluous accounts
- How do CCB and CCX licenses really work?
- Understanding the DLAU tool and how to best utilize it
- Tips for common problem areas, like team mailboxes, functional/test users, etc
- Practical examples and best practices to implement right away
How to Interpret Trends in the Kalyan Rajdhani Mix Chart.pdfChart Kalyan
A Mix Chart displays historical data of numbers in a graphical or tabular form. The Kalyan Rajdhani Mix Chart specifically shows the results of a sequence of numbers over different periods.
zkStudyClub - LatticeFold: A Lattice-based Folding Scheme and its Application...Alex Pruden
Folding is a recent technique for building efficient recursive SNARKs. Several elegant folding protocols have been proposed, such as Nova, Supernova, Hypernova, Protostar, and others. However, all of them rely on an additively homomorphic commitment scheme based on discrete log, and are therefore not post-quantum secure. In this work we present LatticeFold, the first lattice-based folding protocol based on the Module SIS problem. This folding protocol naturally leads to an efficient recursive lattice-based SNARK and an efficient PCD scheme. LatticeFold supports folding low-degree relations, such as R1CS, as well as high-degree relations, such as CCS. The key challenge is to construct a secure folding protocol that works with the Ajtai commitment scheme. The difficulty, is ensuring that extracted witnesses are low norm through many rounds of folding. We present a novel technique using the sumcheck protocol to ensure that extracted witnesses are always low norm no matter how many rounds of folding are used. Our evaluation of the final proof system suggests that it is as performant as Hypernova, while providing post-quantum security.
Paper Link: https://eprint.iacr.org/2024/257
Digital Banking in the Cloud: How Citizens Bank Unlocked Their MainframePrecisely
Inconsistent user experience and siloed data, high costs, and changing customer expectations – Citizens Bank was experiencing these challenges while it was attempting to deliver a superior digital banking experience for its clients. Its core banking applications run on the mainframe and Citizens was using legacy utilities to get the critical mainframe data to feed customer-facing channels, like call centers, web, and mobile. Ultimately, this led to higher operating costs (MIPS), delayed response times, and longer time to market.
Ever-changing customer expectations demand more modern digital experiences, and the bank needed to find a solution that could provide real-time data to its customer channels with low latency and operating costs. Join this session to learn how Citizens is leveraging Precisely to replicate mainframe data to its customer channels and deliver on their “modern digital bank” experiences.
Main news related to the CCS TSI 2023 (2023/1695)Jakub Marek
An English 🇬🇧 translation of a presentation to the speech I gave about the main changes brought by CCS TSI 2023 at the biggest Czech conference on Communications and signalling systems on Railways, which was held in Clarion Hotel Olomouc from 7th to 9th November 2023 (konferenceszt.cz). Attended by around 500 participants and 200 on-line followers.
The original Czech 🇨🇿 version of the presentation can be found here: https://www.slideshare.net/slideshow/hlavni-novinky-souvisejici-s-ccs-tsi-2023-2023-1695/269688092 .
The videorecording (in Czech) from the presentation is available here: https://youtu.be/WzjJWm4IyPk?si=SImb06tuXGb30BEH .
Building Production Ready Search Pipelines with Spark and MilvusZilliz
Spark is the widely used ETL tool for processing, indexing and ingesting data to serving stack for search. Milvus is the production-ready open-source vector database. In this talk we will show how to use Spark to process unstructured data to extract vector representations, and push the vectors to Milvus vector database for search serving.
TrustArc Webinar - 2024 Global Privacy SurveyTrustArc
How does your privacy program stack up against your peers? What challenges are privacy teams tackling and prioritizing in 2024?
In the fifth annual Global Privacy Benchmarks Survey, we asked over 1,800 global privacy professionals and business executives to share their perspectives on the current state of privacy inside and outside of their organizations. This year’s report focused on emerging areas of importance for privacy and compliance professionals, including considerations and implications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies, building brand trust, and different approaches for achieving higher privacy competence scores.
See how organizational priorities and strategic approaches to data security and privacy are evolving around the globe.
This webinar will review:
- The top 10 privacy insights from the fifth annual Global Privacy Benchmarks Survey
- The top challenges for privacy leaders, practitioners, and organizations in 2024
- Key themes to consider in developing and maintaining your privacy program
3. 2 • The Worst of Friends
1.3 percent in Kenya, by 1.6 percent in the Philippines, and by 2.8 percent in Ja-
maica.3 There have therefore been very signiªcant wealth transfers between oil
exporting and oil importing countries as prices have steadily risen from a (nom-
inal) US$ 10 per barrel in early 1999.
OPEC does not have complete control over oil prices (as is commonly as-
sumed). It has some inºuence over price by virtue of its ability to adjust supply,
but it has little control over other factors, such as changes in the value of curren-
cies, consumption taxes, the futures market, and distribution and reªning activ-
ities.4 Indeed, in recent times OPEC’s power to control the price of oil has
waned as control over distribution, reªning and sales has become increasingly
concentrated in the hands of four “super major” companies.5 Oil prices are criti-
cal to the proªt of these companies, and high oil prices also equate to increased
proªts for companies exporting arms into the Middle East. This has created a
largely US-based coalition of inºuential large oil and arms manufacturing com-
panies that act to gain the larger proªts that come from high oil prices, which
rise through the perceived scarcity that arises from risk of, or actual conºict in
the Middle East.6
For the Middle Eastern members of OPEC, this alliance of arms and oil
companies with a common interest in tension and conºict is ostensibly a dra-
matic challenge to their sovereignty. Yet many of the same regimes whose sover-
eignty is challenged are dependent on higher oil prices for the security of their
rule. Saudi Arabia, for example, relies on oil revenues for 70 percent of state rev-
enues, so that when the price of oil softened in 1998 the budget deªcit rose, un-
employment increased, and the stability of the regime was weakened.7 This de-
pendence on oil is the result of a failure to reinvest oil rents into other income
generating activities to diversify the economy. As a result, war or the risk of it
may be a lesser concern to oil dependent Middle Eastern governments than soft
oil prices and declining state revenues, particularly when, as in the case of Saudi
Arabia, the costs of war are largely borne by other states.8 Indeed, Saudi Arabia
is often understood to be the leader of OPEC (including in the climate regime),
and this is perhaps partly because the Saudi regime has the most to lose from
lower oil prices.9
OPEC claims that climate mitigation policies and measures that target oil
consumption will slow growth in their revenues from oil exports.10 Since the
lead up to the Kyoto Protocol they have argued that reducing emissions through
3. Bacon 2005.
4. Kaufrmann et al. 2004; and Kohl 2002.
5. Davis 2006.
6. Nitzan and Bichler 1995.
7. Kohl 2002.
8. Abir 1993; and Gause 2000.
9. Smith 2005.
10. Barnett et al. 2004.
4. Jon Barnett • 3
the imposition of carbon taxes (or equivalent measures) in developed countries
will reduce demand for oil, and because developed countries account for more
than 60 percent of world oil consumption, this may cause a decline in the
global price of oil. They also argue that carbon taxes in developed countries may
increase the rent that governments in energy importing countries have in the oil
market, which would further transfer wealth from governments in producing
countries to governments in consuming countries.11
In the climate negotiations OPEC has argued that the developed countries
must minimize these impacts, demanding compensation for their expected
losses. This is the reason why there are so many complex, time consuming, and
otherwise unnecessary negotiations around the issue of “the adverse effects of
response measures,” which to OPEC means “compensation for lost oil reve-
nue.” To pursue this ostensible goal OPEC, and in particular its Middle Eastern
members, block progress by exercising the de facto power of veto that arises be-
cause the negotiating process seeks consensus.12 A party that wants no progress
in the negotiations can object to or seek amendment to every piece of text that
comes before it, and this is the game that OPEC plays in the negotiating process,
often with de facto G-77/China support because that group does not oppose it.
However, OPEC has nothing much to fear from the effect of climate
change policies on oil prices.13 In 1999 its own model—the OPEC World Energy
Model (OWEM)—showed that revenue from oil exports will rise massively into
the future, even under the Kyoto Protocol. Nevertheless, OWEM and other
energy/economic models did suggest that the rate of growth in revenue would
be less than the business-as-usual scenario due to the Kyoto Protocol.14 OWEM
assumed that without any action on climate change the price of a barrel of oil
would rise to US$ 18 by 2010. This assumption is now clearly outdated by re-
cent high oil prices. For example, in 2007 OPEC earned four times more for a
barrel of oil than was forecast in OWEM, despite the Kyoto Protocol being in
force since early 2005. In any event, given that models such as OWEM are easy
to manipulate, its results should not be seen as information that determined
OPEC’s position in the climate regime, but rather as evidence that helped to jus-
tify OPEC’s predetermined opposition to the Kyoto Protocol.
At least one of OPEC’s motivations in opposing actions to reduce emis-
sions is a desire to prevent developed countries from using climate change miti-
gation policies to increase the rent that they receive through taxes on imported
fuels. Indeed, OPEC may be using the climate negotiations to claw back some of
that rent. They have argued, for example, that developed countries should both
reduce taxes on imported oil, and reduce their own production of fossil fuels.15
11. Mabey et al. 1997.
12. Oberthür and Ott 1999.
13. Barnett et al. 2004.
14. Ghanem et al. 1999.
15. Barnett and Dessai 2002.
5. 4 • The Worst of Friends
There is also speculation that there is an informal alliance between OPEC and
the coalition of interests opposing climate change mitigation in the United
States.16 Putnam’s two-level game theory would suggest that this US-based coali-
tion, which includes the government and oil companies, would seek to mini-
mize the domestic political costs of being too strongly identiªed as a cause of
problems in the climate regime by asking its allies to assist them in obstructing
the regime. This is plausible given that OPEC (and the Saudi regime in particu-
lar) shares a common interest with the United States government and its corpo-
rate allies in maintaining high oil prices, has no obvious reason to want action
to reduce emissions, and has less to worry about in terms of domestic political
backlash (in the absence of democratic elections).17
Despite evidence that the Kyoto Protocol has not had the effect on oil rev-
enues forecast in OWEM and other such models, OPEC has continued to ob-
struct progress in the climate negotiations through tactics such as outright re-
fusal to agree, insisting on linking progress on the compensation issue with
progress on other issues (including on assistance for adaptation—a key concern
of G-77), blocking discussion of ideas and issues, stressing scientiªc uncertainty
and contesting the validity of the IPCC Reports, wasting time, fomenting mis-
trust among parties, misrepresenting the G-77 position, and introducing mean-
ingless text or text that is clearly going to be unacceptable to other parties.18
In short, OPEC’s oil policies contribute to large reductions in the GDP of
developing countries, which causes increasing poverty and hunger, and its cli-
mate change policies strive to see no action on climate change, which means a
world where oil prices remain high, and where growth in developing countries
is suppressed and poverty increased due to both high oil prices and the impacts
of climate change. OPEC’s actions on energy and climate therefore undermine
sustainable development in developing countries. The paradox of this situation
is that the G-77/China group, which is the institutional face of the developing
countries in the climate change negotiations, sometimes actively and—by virtue
of its inclusion of OPEC members in its number—frequently tacitly supports
OPEC in its efforts to obstruct the climate regime.
Surprisingly little has been written about the internal dynamics of the G-
77 given that it is very heterogenous, and that the politics of the negotiations is
almost always understood as being fundamentally driven by the North-South
divide.19 What happens within the G-77 is critical for the progress or otherwise
of the climate regime, yet there is as yet no totally convincing explanation of
why the G-77 has been so uniªed for so long despite widely and increasingly di-
vergent interests among its members.20 It is disconcerting that this is probably in
no small part due to the bias towards understanding the developed countries by
16. Most clearly argued by Leggett 1999; but see also Dessai 2004.
17. Putnam 1988; and Paterson 1996.
18. Paterson 1996; Dessai 2004; Depledge 2006; Depledge, this volume; and author’s observations.
19. But see Gupta 1997; Najam 2004; Williams 2005; and Kasa et al. 2008.
20. Najam 2004; and Williams 2005.
6. Jon Barnett • 5
researchers from the developed countries.21 The lack of a satisfactory explana-
tion in turn means that there is no totally satisfying explanation as to why the
G-77 tacitly supports OPEC in its efforts to obstruct the climate regime. How-
ever, this lack of a convincing single explanation is not unique to studies of
global politics, where there are often competing explanations of a phenomenon
based on different theories of regime and state behavior informed by evidence
of different kinds.
There is an important but subtle distinction to be made between explana-
tions of G-77 unity, and explanations as to why OPEC is still part of and is in-
deed so inºuential with the G-77. G-77 unity is seen to be a function of the
shared goals of all countries, which include: a development-centered approach
to climate change; the recognition of common but differentiated responsibility
as a guiding principle; an equal voice in all aspects of international affairs; tech-
nology transfer; and additional resources for environmental programs.22 There
is also a common feeling of vulnerability to political and economic power in
the international system and to the negotiating power of developed countries,
and a high degree of internal work to negotiate and coordinate the G-77’s ef-
forts at times when the group has begun fragmenting.23 Within the G-77, unity
is often held up as value to be preserved in and of itself. In the context of differ-
ences within the group on climate change, the goal of unity seems irrational,
but it makes more sense when one appreciates that the group operates across a
range of international negotiations, so that “maintaining long-term unity can
be rationalized as being more important than the fate of any single issue.”24
These reasons partly explain why OPEC has considerable inºuence within
the G-77 on climate change. A shared sense of weakness makes countries like
Saudi Arabia that take the ªght up to developed countries seem like champions
of a sort.25 And an overriding commitment to unity may make it easier for coun-
tries to rationalize acceding to G-77 leadership and demands even while these
may conºict with their particular interests. It is also signiªcant that the Chair of
the G-77—which coordinates the group—was ªlled by a delegate from an
OPEC country for six of the eleven years spanning 1994–2004—a critical period
during the evolution of the climate regime.26 This leading role may have arisen
after the G-77 effectively ignored OPEC’s demands and argued instead for
strong targets in early negotiations over the Kyoto Protocol.27
A frequently mentioned but rarely explained reason for G-77 unity and for
the inºuence of OPEC concerns the capacity to successfully manage negotia-
tions. Almost all G-77 countries have small delegations relative to the devel-
21. But see the unique insights in the work of Joyeeta Gupta, Adil Najam, and Marc Williams. I am
not from a developing country.
22. Najam 2004; and Williams 2005.
23. Gupta 1997; Najam 2004 and 2005; and Kasa et al. 2008.
24. Najam 2005, 151.
25. Dessai 2004.
26. After Dessai 2004.
27. Kasa et al. 2008.
7. 6 • The Worst of Friends
oped countries. The logic, rules, and language of the climate negotiations are
arcane and require the kind of full-time stafªng that only the wealthiest devel-
oping countries can afford. The growing complexity of the regime only adds to
the insecurity that many small delegations feel at the prospect of having to navi-
gate the negotiations on their own. For this reason developing countries ªnd se-
curity within the G-77 bloc.28 This means that G-77 countries such as Saudi Ara-
bia, which have formidable negotiation capacity, can have signiªcant inºuence
within the bloc though their ability to inform discussions and advise others in
ways that suit their particular interests.29 Small delegations within G-77 are as
vulnerable to manipulation from within the group as they are from developed
countries. Within the G-77, OPEC is a negotiating superpower, yet one which
commands more votes than others such as Brazil, China, India, and South Af-
rica. One implication of this analysis is that if it were met, the strong demand
from G-77 for assistance to develop capacity in negotiations might confer such
conªdence to its members that G-77 solidarity becomes less necessary.
Yet for now G-77 remains a group whose ºexibility, credibility, and capac-
ity to lead the negotiating process is compromised by the demands and actions
of its OPEC members. OPEC’s actions are a key reason why there is an impasse
between G-77 and the developed countries on so many issues in the climate re-
gime. Indeed, so entrenched are the two camps that the climate change regime
is at risk of ossiªcation.30 The opportunity costs of ossiªcation are now larger
than ever given the critical need for meaningful reductions in emissions of
greenhouse gases to be achieved, ideally, through a second commitment period
under the Kyoto Protocol that includes all major emitters including those such
as a China and India. China and India, for their part, may well want to be in-
cluded in such an agreement if it can assist them to alleviate the signiªcant
problems they have with energy security and air pollution, yet their decision
will be far less easy if it involves choosing between either participation in the
new agreement or participation in G-77. Thus, for as long as the overarching
value of G-77 unity prevails, and/or for as long as OPEC has inºuence within G-
77, intra-G-77 deliberation on this issue will be restricted and deferred, devel-
oping country participation in a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol will
be obstructed, and the regime may increasingly ossify.
So, what happens within G-77 in the coming few years, and in particular
how it deals with the increasingly anachronistic demands of OPEC, will be criti-
cal for the future of the climate change regime. Of course the climate change re-
gime is not the only institution that determines action on climate change. There
are activities that occur outside its auspices,31 and this includes large developing
country emitters engaging in bilateral agreements perhaps in part as a means to
avoid choosing between the G-77 position and the beneªts of action on climate
28. Gupta 1997; and Williams 1997 and 2005.
29. Kasa et al. 2008.
30. Depledge 2006.
31. Depledge 2006.
8. Jon Barnett • 7
change.32 Nevertheless, the climate change regime is a “core” site of learning
about how to address climate change and has and can still be a key locus of ac-
tion,33 so developing new theories and producing more evidence to better un-
derstand intra-G-77 dynamics remains an important task for researchers inter-
ested in global environmental politics.
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