The document discusses transitioning to a new energy system backbone in Northwest Europe. It summarizes that current energy systems rely heavily on fossil fuels like coal and natural gas, but renewable resources like solar and wind are growing. It also notes uncertainties around managing variability from renewables as coal and nuclear capacity closes. The role of natural gas in providing flexibility is discussed. Finally, it outlines how hydrogen could play an increasing role in the future, transitioning from grey hydrogen today to blue hydrogen using carbon capture and eventually green hydrogen from renewable electricity.

1. Building a new energy system backbone in NW Europe
and managing transition
29 October 2019, Geldermalsen
Coby van der Linde

2. 33000
34000
35000
36000
37000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
2014-2016
2017-2018
Graph by CIEP
Data: Carbon Atlas (2010-2017), IEA (2018)
Global CO2 emissions 2010-2018 – MtCO2

3. • Efficiency, RES, C2G are helping limit CO2 emission growth
• CO2 intensity of the economy has been consistently decreasing in the last years
• However, this has not been enough to lower total CO2 emissions
Deconstructing CO2 emission growth 2017-2018 – MtCO2

4. The spectacular rise of China CO2 emissions in 1960-2017 – MtCO2

5. Embedded CO2 emissions in trade
Top 6 carbon dioxide emitters, 2005 and
2015 CO2 in trade

6. Solar
Wind
Today
Other
Global electricity mix 1970-2018 and why energy per carbon matters
Source: BNEF
Reduction range
in the order of
50% to 65% !

7. 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Source: CIEP based on data from BP
51%
49%
% of world coal consumption in 2017
China ROW
1960 2017
33145
26516
19897
13258
6629
CO2 emissions by fuel →
The heavy contribution of Chinese coal
Mtoe
MtCO2
Coal consumption – China vs rest of the world (ROW)
China
ROW

8. Final Energy
Consumption
Conversion
- power plants
- refineries
- boilers (heat)
- etc.
Storage
- tanks (liquids)
- bulk solids (coal)
- underground gas storages
- etc.
Transport
- Pipelines
- Cables
- Maritime
- Road
- Rail
Liquids
(oil)
Gases
(natural gas)
Solids
(coal)
Energy Supplies meeting Energy Demand: TodayPrimary Energy
Production
Sectors
Fuels
Energy System Management
Private Sector
Actors
Public Sector
Actors
Hybrid
Actors
Electricity
Sector
Built-
environment
Industry
Transport
Losses

9. Source: Eurostat 2016
European Energy balance (2016 Eurostat)

11. Energy consumption in Europe
CIEP (2016) graph based on
Eurostat 2014 data
2014 Final Energy Consumption
Solar and wind
still small in
comparison
Electricity
about 20% of
total
consumption
in EU
member
states
About 75%
of energy
are
‘molecules;
liquids or
gases

12. Uncertainties about developments in the power sector in Europe
Managing uncertainties:
• Early electrification (of transportation and low
temperature heat) ahead of expansion REN capacities
translates in growth gas demand
• Coal and nuclear ‘Ausstieg’ in Germany, Belgium,
Netherlands.
• Most investments in power are in intermittent production
capacity
• Do we have a timing problem? Most countries solve their
problems (on paper) with imports from neighboring
countries. Is this realistic when they all plan the same?
• Investments in dispatchable capacity and storage are
lagging.
• Will Dutch gas plants stay open if the market does not
value them in the short term and while we do know that
we need them in later years?
• What about the (gas) infrastructure investments? And
permitting?
• How could a transition from natural gas to hydrogen or
other clean molecules materialize?
Source: Timera
energy
Announced closures of power generation
capacity

13. Electricity from Solar & wind Germany (1/2)
• Every day, solar (yellow) peaks around noon and goes back to zero in the evening
• Many days, wind energy (blue) is produced, but sometimes for days it is not
• Different seasons show different patters
• Electricity generation in Germany in the month of June and July 2019
Bron: Agora Energiewende (2019)

14. Electricity from Solar & wind Germany (2/2)
Source: Agora Energiewende (2017)
• Every day, solar (yellow) peaks around noon and goes back to zero in the evening
• Many days, wind energy (blue) is produced, but sometimes for days it is not
• Different seasons show different patterns, and as a result also different emission profiles (dark purple line)
• Electricity generation in Germany in the months of January and February 2019

15. Seasonality of Heat Demand (NL example)
GW
Source: CIEP (2016) based on GTS & ENTSO-E data
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Electricity
Heat proxy (gas @ LDC level)
Heating for buildings, vs. electricity system

16. Source: IEA 2018 adapted by CIEP
Longer term European supply and demand outlook

17. CHEMICALS REFINING
IRON AND STEEL
NON-FERROUS METALS
NON-METALLIC
MINERALS PAPER
MACHINERY
FOOD AND
BEVERAGES
OTHER
0 20 40 60 80 100
MTOE
PRIMARY METALS
EU INDUSTRIAL NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION BY INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
EU INDUSTRIAL GAS CONSUMPTION BY MEMBER STATE
Source: CIEP

18. Largest Energy Imports Europe – 2016 (Mtoe)
Source: CIEP based on Eurostat data. Numbers are in Mtoe and rounded off.
Categories are: Crude oil, Oil products (Total Petroleum Products except for crude oil), Natural gas, and Coal (Solid Fuels). Europe includes both EU and non-EU states.
USA
55
Norway
Russia
Saudi
Arabia
Nigeria
Algeria
37
70
170
452
52
95
11
64

19. Renewables, networks and
managing change
• We have been made aware of E-network
limitations by issues to connect new wind and
solar to the distribution grid and the large
investments needed to overcome the issues:
– Big plans with regard to electrification of
transportation
– Big plans with regard to electrification of low
temperature heating
– New economic activities/ Data Centres
• How do we maintain control over the stability
of our distribution grids? Who can manage
opposing developments? Smart grids? And
how stupid are we behind the metre?
• Who manages grids, production and
consumption developments? Who makes sure
that we do not have time or spatial
mismatches?

20. Role of (natural) gas(es) in transition
• Switching away from natural gas (in
low temperature heating) shifts gas
demand to power sector
– Natural Gas will play an important role in
our energy system for longer than we think
as marginal supply for NW European
power sector
– Natural gas security of supply is connected
to power security of supply is connected to
foreign supplies
– Competing for natural gas supplies with
China/Asia for LNG
– Electrification is not a sufficient mitigation
measure for worries about natural gas
security of supply as is sometimes argued

21. From the current system to a new energy system

22. Energy carriers in system roles now and later
Elke systeemrol moet vervuld worden voor een goed functionerend energiesysteem. Dragers met beperkingen in rollen maar welke
elkaar aanvullen, kunnen voor die rol samen gelijkwaardig zijn aan een enkele goed geschikte drager.

23. Current system

24. Hydrogen is already with us, for a long time
Global demand for hydrogen in pure forms has grown steadily over the past 50 years to around 70 Mt today.
More than 40 Mt is also produced in a mixture of other gases.
Global hydrogen demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2018e
Milliontonnesofhydrogen
Refining
Ammonia
Other pure
Methanol
Steelmaking (DRI)
Other mixed
Pure hydrogen
Mixed together with
other gases

25. ≈ 2020

26. Final Energy
Consumption
Sectors
Energy System Management
Private Sector
Actors
Public Sector
Actors
Hybrid
Actors
Conversion
- power plants
- refineries
- boilers (heat)
- etc.
- Incl. electrolysis (power2gas)
- Incl. power2products
- Incl. power2liquids
Storage
- Tanks
- bulk solids
- underground gas storages
- etc.
Electricity
Sector
Transport
- Pipelines
- Cables
- Maritime
- Road
- Rail
Built-
environment
Industry
Transport
Electricity
(solar, wind)
Losses
Energy Supplies meeting Energy Demand: Transition
Electricity
Primary Energy
Production
Fuels
Liquids
(oil)
Gases
(natural gas)
Solids
(coal, biomass)

27. Market introduction of ‘blue’ and ‘green’ H2
De huidige grijze waterstofvraag kan vervangen en uitgebreid worden door blauwe waterstof,
tegelijkertijd kan groene waterstof technologie opschalen en op termijn blauw aanvullen en/of
vervangen.
Vertaald uit CIEP, ‘International approaches to clean molecules’, 2019

28. System in transition

29. Integrated Energy System Transition: An open
energy trade system; with industry as enabler
to create new markets and where assets and
competences of the oil and gas industry are
needed to create a low carbon energy system

30. Now, building of blue
hydrogen with CCS (ATR),
as a trailblazer for large
scale green hydrogen
later; including market
creation beyond
traditional industrial
markets (refining,
chemicals, steel) to built
environment,
transportation
Nu 40 PJ in
Rotterdam-
Moerdijk
H-vision: +50 PJ 250 MW BP/Nouryon: 5 PJ
2GW Electrolyser Park: 40 PJ
H-vision reference case industry
Hydrogen: 2018 grey – 2020 blue – 2030 green

31. (possible) Different roles of hydrogen
Elektriciteitssector
Industrie
Internationaal perspectief

32. Primary Energy
Production
Final Energy
Consumption
Sectors
Energy System Management
Private Sector
Actors
Public Sector
Actors
Hybrid
Actors
Conversion
- Into gases, liquids, solids
- Incl. electrolysis (power2gas)
- Incl. power2products
- Incl. power2liquids
Storage
- Tanks
- bulk solids
- underground gas storages
- etc.
Electricity
Sector
Transport
- Pipelines
- Cables
- Maritime
- Road
- Rail
Built-
environment
Industry
Transport
Electricity
(solar, wind)
Losses
Energy Supplies meeting Energy Demand: Future
Electricity
Natural gas
with CCUS
Fuels

33. Potential 2050

34. Summarising: From the current energy system backbone to a
new one

35. Thank you!
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