Transboundary Modelling of Particulate Matter with REMOTE- Saji Varghese, NUIG

REMOTE is a regional climate model used to model particulate matter and air quality. It has high horizontal and vertical resolution and includes modules for aerosol dynamics, gas phase chemistry, and secondary organic aerosol formation. REMOTE has been used to study the effects of deposition schemes on ozone, sensitivity to horizontal resolution, and volcanic ash transport from the Eyjafyalla eruption in 2010. The model output has been evaluated against observations and other models. REMOTE is a useful tool for researchers and policymakers to study air pollution and its impacts.

Technology

Transboundary Modelling of Particulate Matter with REMOTE Saji Varghese Centre for Climate and Air Pollution Studies and School of Physics, National University of Ireland, Galway

Motivation Impact on human health Aerosols contribute to climate change Tool for researchers and policy-makers Different models ,[object Object]

Regional climate models (RCMs) coupled with aerosol dynamics and chemistry,[object Object]

Microphysical aerosol module M7 Vignati et al., JGR (2004), Stier et al., ACP (2005) - aerosol size distribution in 7 log-normal modes ,[object Object],Sulfate Black Carbon Organic Carbon Sea salt Mineral dust

RADM2 chemistry 163 reactions, 63 species (Stockwell et al., 1990) Stiff ODE’s describe the gas phase chemistry and uses operator splitting approach Model Set-up ,[object Object]

Domain - Western Europe and North East Atlantic

Emission - EMEP and organic-inorganic source function

Chlorophyll data - MODIS satellite ,[object Object]

Secondary Organic Aerosol (SOA) in the Marine Environment (Antilla et al., 2010) Isoprene source function Isoprene concentration in sea water is proportional to chlorophyll-a concentration (Meskhidze and Nenes, 2006) Isoprene flux =product of isoprene concentration and gas exchange coefficient (Palmer and Shaw, 2005) isoprene oxidation products as major SOA precursors SOA formation based on Henry’s law

SOA: Six additional components in M7 - isoprene oxidation products as SOA precursors - SOA formation based on Henry’s law

Ozone Concentration-sensitivity to deposition schemes (Coleman et al., 2010) ,[object Object],[object Object]

Eyjafyalla volcano eruption April-May 2010 disruption to air-traffic Economic losses to airlines, insurance companies, logistics operations, tourism industry Initial forecasts from VAAC – using NAME model - 4mg/m3 limit - 2mg/m3 limit - Forecasting with REMOTE – an additional tool - air-quality

Development of volcanic ash forecasting system boundary data preparation from ECMWF forecast data and analysis model development and source term parameterisation volcano source data gathering and assimilation comparison with other dispersion models continual refinement of the model for improving forecasts forecasts issued twice daily automation

Key input parameters and associated uncertainties for models Source term (key eruption parameters) Mass flux vertical distribution of mass column height particle size distribution density

Sample 4-day forecast Spatial distribution of volcanic ash (mg/m2) Horizontal resolution: 0.5o(~50 km), 81x91 grid points Vertical levels : 19 Time step: 5 min Boundary data: ECMWF forecast Emission source: Iceland Met office

Comparison of REMOTE model output with NAME results

The document analyzes the relationship between MODIS satellite measurements of aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and ground-based measurements of PM10 particulate matter concentrations in Southeastern Italy from 2006-2008. PM10 concentrations ranged from 1.6-152 μg/m3 and decreased slightly from 2006 to 2008. MODIS AOT values ranged up to 0.8 daily and 0.15-0.17 yearly. A weak linear correlation was found between daily AOT and PM10 (R=0.20-0.35), which strengthened when restricting the analysis to clear-sky MODIS measurements (R=0.34-0.57). An empirical equation was derived to estimate PM10 from clear-sky

Trial and error in determining carbon budgets at policy relevant scales

This document discusses regional and country-scale carbon budgets. It begins by outlining some issues with mesoscale models and uncertainties in regional budgets due to limited observations. It then discusses efforts to close carbon budgets at continental scales and compares bottom-up and top-down estimates, finding large discrepancies. The document presents several case studies of carbon budget modeling and inversion for the Netherlands and Germany, comparing modeled fluxes to aircraft observations. It concludes by discussing reducing uncertainties in carbon budgets by bridging scales from global to regional to local through integrated surface, aircraft and potential satellite observations.

Observing methane flux distributions using high resolution air-borne mapping

Pairing aermod concentrations with the 50th percentile monitored value

This document proposes a new method for combining modeled concentrations from AERMOD with monitored background concentrations. The current practice of adding the maximum or 98th percentile monitored concentration is overly conservative. Instead, the document suggests using the 50th percentile (median) monitored concentration. Pairing the 98th percentile modeled concentration with the 50th percentile monitored concentration results in a combined 99th percentile concentration. This provides a more conservative estimate than the form of the short-term air quality standards, while avoiding the mismatch of temporal pairing in AERMOD and the influence of exceptional events. The proposed method is presented as a simple, protective approach for demonstrating compliance with air quality standards when considering both modeled and monitored background concentrations.

Effects of Wind Direction on Trace Metal Concentration in Southeast Kansas

This study investigated the effects of wind direction on trace metal concentrations in particulate matter in southeast Kansas. Air quality monitoring was conducted from March to October 2000 at nine sites. Concentrations of six metals (beryllium, chromium, arsenic, cadmium, barium, and lead) were analyzed. The results showed that wind direction significantly impacted chromium, barium, and lead concentrations, with calm/variable winds associated with higher chromium and lead levels and north winds linked to higher barium. However, upwind/downwind comparisons found no significant differences near targeted industrial sources. Mean levels of chromium, arsenic, and cadmium exceeded EPA risk levels at some sites.

The GEO initiative on Carbon and Greenhouse Gases: Integration across domains

Significance of long-term environmental and physiological records for underst...

This document discusses the importance of long-term environmental and physiological data for understanding and predicting forest ecosystem functioning. It outlines the current data and modeling paradigms in forest science, including empirical models based on long-term forestry data and process models based on eco-physiological data. The challenges of predicting climate change impacts are discussed. Long-term, high-quality monitoring data from networks like ICP Forest and ICOS are invaluable for detecting trends, testing hypotheses, parameterizing models, and data-model assimilation. The conclusions emphasize that understanding climate impacts is more difficult than expected, requiring eco-evolutionary modeling and continued long-term eco-physiological research at sites like ICOS.

INNOVATIVE DISPERSION MODELING PRACTICES TO ACHIEVE A REASONABLE LEVEL OF CON...

Presentation delivered at the Board meeting for the Upper Midwest section of the Air and Waste Management Association meeting on September 16, 2014. Innovative dispersion modeling techniques are presented including ARM2, EMVAP and the 50th percentile background concentration. Case study involves peaking engines that are used 250 hour per year. These intermittent sources are required to undergo a modeling evaluation in many states. Current modeling techniques grossly overestimate the emissions from these sporadic sources.

This document discusses innovative dispersion modeling practices to achieve reasonable conservatism in regulatory modeling demonstrations. It presents a case study evaluating the Emissions and Meteorological Variability Processor (EMVAP) and approaches to establish background concentrations. The case study models SO2 concentrations from a power plant using 1) constant emissions, 2) variable emissions, and 3) EMVAP. EMVAP provides more realistic concentrations while accounting for emission variability. Using the 50th percentile monitored background concentration when combining with modeled values provides statistical conservatism compared to using high percentile values.

AERMOD CHANGES AND UPDATES

Ma, Jin: Inverse modelling of global carbonyl sulfide budget using TM5-4DVAR ...

This document summarizes an inverse modeling study of carbonyl sulfide (COS) using the TM5-4DVAR model. The objectives were to 1) implement an inverse system for COS, carbon disulfide (CS2), and dimethyl sulfide (DMS), 2) invert COS based on closing global budgets, and 3) validate the model with independent HIPPO and aircraft profile data. The results showed missing COS emissions in the tropics and additional sinks at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Assimilating both NOAA and HIPPO data into the model improved agreement with independent validation data compared to using NOAA data alone. Future work will include assimilating satellite observations

INNOVATIVE DISPERSION MODELING PRACTICES TO ACHIEVE A REASONABLE LEVEL OF CON...

Presentation delivered at the Annual Air and Waste Management Association conference in Long beach, California on June 26, 2014. Innovative dispersion modeling techniques are presented including ARM2, EMVAP and the 50th percentile background concentration. Case study involves peaking engines that are used 250 hour per year. These intermittent sources are required to undergo a modeling evaluation in many states. Current modeling techniques grossly overestimate the emissions from these sporadic sources.

AIR DISPERSION MODELING HIGHLIGHTS FROM 2012 ACE

EFFECTS OF MET DATA PROCESSING IN AERMOD CONCENTRATIONS

This document summarizes the results of a sensitivity analysis using AERMOD to model pollutant concentrations from three hypothetical emission sources under nine different meteorological data processing scenarios. The analysis found that: 1) Changing the meteorological station location had a modest effect on modeled concentrations for short and tall stacks. 2) Surface roughness category (urban vs. rural) had the largest effect on concentrations for tall stacks. 3) Varying the anemometer height resulted in small concentration changes, while surface moisture variation did not significantly affect outcomes. 4) For tall stacks, use of AERMINUTE data to include low wind hours led to much higher modeled concentrations compared to excluding this data.

Effects of Wind Direction on VOC Concentrations in Southeast Kansas

Twenty-four-hour whole-air samples were collected in evacuated stainless steel canisters and analyzed for volatile organic compounds (VOC) at selected sites in southeast Kansas from March 1999 to October 2000. The purpose was to assess the influence on air quality of four industrial facilities that burn hazardous waste located in the communities of Coffeyville, Chanute, Independence and Fredonia. Fifteen of the VOC analytes were found at concentrations above the detection limit and above levels observed in the blanks. Data were analyzed to investigate whether sampling site and date had a significant effect on VOC concentration. Results indicate that site and/or date were significant factors for many of the VOCs. To further investigate the temporal factor, sampling days were divided into four classifications based on wind direction: predominantly north winds, predominantly south winds, calm/variable winds and other winds. Results from statistical analyses show that wind direction was a significant factor for benzene, toluene, o-xylene, naphthalene, and carbon tetrachloride. Data from upwind and downwind samples were analyzed for the four cities of interest in the study area, to investigate the effect of the four targeted sources on VOC concentrations. Results from Fredonia showed higher concentrations of toluene, ethyl benzene, styrene, methyl chloride, and trichloroethylene in the upwind samples, although none of the results were statistically significant. Chanute also showed higher concentrations of the same compounds and m,p-xylene in the upwind samples; results were significant at the 0.05 level for toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylene. These results indicate that sources other than those targeted in the sampling network may be contributing to the VOC levels. Results from Independence showed higher concentrations of ethylebenzene and styrene in the downwind samples; results were statistically significant. These results indicate that the source targeted in the sampling network may be contributing to the VOC levels at those sampling sites.

Innovative Dispersion Modeling Practices to Achieve a Reasonable Level of Con...

The document discusses innovative modeling practices to achieve reasonable conservatism in AERMOD modeling demonstrations. It presents a case study evaluating three modeling techniques: EMVAP, which assigns random emission rates over iterations; ARM2, which calculates NOx to NO2 conversion based on plume entrapment; and using the 50th percentile monitored background concentration. The case study found lower modeled concentrations using EMVAP and ARM2 compared to current practices, demonstrating these techniques can provide more realistic results while still protecting air quality standards. Pairing the 98th percentile predicted concentration with the 50th percentile monitored background provided a statistically conservative but reasonable level of conservatism.

EVALUATION OF SO2 AND NOX OFFSET RATIOS TO ACCOUNT FOR SECONDARY PM2.5 FORMATION

On January 4, 2012, the EPA committed to engage in rulemaking to evaluate updates to the Guideline on Air Quality Models (AppendixWof 40 CFR 51) and, as appropriate, incorporate new analytical techniques or models for secondary PM2.5. As a result, the National Association of Clean Air Agencies (NACAA) developed a screening method involving offset ratios to account for secondary PM2.5 formation. This method can be used to evaluate total (direct and indirect) PM2.5 impacts for permitting purposes. Therefore, the evaluation of this method is important to determine its viability for widespread use.

Lauvaux, Thomas: Uncertainty-based analysis on constraining continental carbo...

1) Boundary conditions representing air flowing into North America from other regions contribute significantly to uncertainties in atmospheric CO2 mixing ratios, especially at seasonal timescales. 2) Fossil fuel emissions uncertainties are another major source of uncertainty in CO2 mixing ratios when analyzed at annual timescales. 3) Flux tower measurements of ecosystem carbon uptake and atmospheric CO2 concentration data provide consistent results on biases in biogeochemical model simulations, but concentrations cannot fully disentangle diurnal biases identified by flux towers.

Use of Probabilistic Statistical Techniques in AERMOD Modeling Evaluations

State of Utah, Salt Lake City

The advent of the short term National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) prompted modelers to reassess the common practices in dispersion modeling analyses. The probabilistic nature of the new short term standards also opens the door to alternative modeling techniques that are based on probability. One of these is the Monte Carlo technique that can be used to account for emission variability in permit modeling. Currently, it is assumed that a given emission unit is in operation at its maximum capacity every hour of the year. This assumption may be appropriate for facilities that operate at full capacity most of the time. However, in most cases, emission units operate at variable loads that produce variable emissions. Thus, assuming constant maximum emissions is overly conservative for facilities such as power plants that are not in operation all the time and which exhibit high concentrations during very short periods of time. Another element of conservatism in NAAQS demonstrations relates to combining predicted concentrations from the AMS/EPA Regulatory Model (AERMOD) with observed (monitored) background concentrations. Normally, some of the highest monitored observations are added to the AERMOD results yielding a very conservative combined concentration. A case study is presented to evaluate the use of alternative probabilistic methods to complement the shortcomings of current dispersion modeling practices. This case study includes the use of the Monte Carlo technique and the use of a reasonable background concentration to combine with the AERMOD predicted concentrations. The use of these methods is in harmony with the probabilistic nature of the NAAQS and can help demonstrate compliance through dispersion modeling analyses, while still being protective of the NAAQS.

Utah's Air quality Program

This document provides an overview of Utah's air quality program. It discusses current air quality trends and issues such as particulate matter and ozone levels. It also outlines recent actions taken to reduce emissions, upcoming issues like new federal standards, and key research areas. Air quality in Utah is generally good, exceeding federal standards on about 5% of days on average. The program focuses on reducing emissions from sources like industry, vehicles and solid fuel burning to improve air quality.

Comparison of AERMOD and CALPUFF Modeling of an SO2 Nonattainment Area in Nor...

BREEZE Software

C6.05: New ocean-colour products for the user community - Shubha Sathyendrana...

Blue Planet Symposium

The ocean-colour component of the Climate Change Initiative of the European Space Agency has generated a time series of bio-optical products from late 1997 to mid 2012. The products are based on data from SeaWiFS, MODIS-A and MERIS sensors, band shifted (to bring data to a common set of wavebands), corrected for inter-sensor bias, and then merged. Products include remote-sensing reflectances at SeaWiFS wavelengths, chlorophyll concentration, diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm, and inherent optical properties (components of absorption and back-scattering coefficients). Practically all the products have uncertainties (root-mean-square difference and bias) associated with them on a pixel-by-pixel basis, based on validation using in situ data. The first version of the products are available freely at www.oceancolour.org and at www.esa-oceancolour-cci.org. A second version is expected to be released prior to the Blue Planet Symposium in Australia in 2015. Furthermore, plans are underway to add to the product suite through a number of related ESA projects. New products envisaged include primary production, photosynthesis parameters, components of the carbon pool in the ocean and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) at the sea surface. User consultation and serving the user community are very much a part of these projects, and the Blue Planet provides a useful forum for reaching users from a variety of backgrounds. The work reported here contribute to components C2 (Sustained Ecosystems and Food Security) and C5 (Ocean Climate and Carbon) of the “Oceans and Society: Blue Planet” initiative of the Group on Earth Observations (GEO).

Using low cost particle sensors for characterisation of urban air pollution: ...

IES / IAQM

A presentation from RTCA17, held on 24th-25th October 2017. The production of low-cost air quality sensors is a fast growing field, which is offering exciting possibilities for the expert and non-expert alike. Their low cost brings the technology into the financial reach of non-professional communities, for example, schools and interested/concerned individuals. For the research and consultant communities, they bring the possibility of high-density spatial mapping. To be useful, these devices need quality assurance and quality checking (QA/QC) to be undertaken under environmental conditions relevant to their location of deployment. In this talk, Francis will discuss findings from field campaigns conducted in Birmingham, UK and Nairobi, Kenya using the Alphasense OPC-N2 optical particle counter for measuring PM10 and PM2.5. Overall, the OPC-N2 devices were found to measure accurately ambient airborne particle mass concentration provided they were correctly calibrated. Future applications and directions will be discussed.

Using Physical Modeling to Evaluate Re-entrainment of Stack Emissions

Fume re-entry is an important concern for many types of facilities such as hospitals and laboratories that emit pathogens and toxic chemicals that may impact public health by being re-entrained into the building though nearby air intakes. Numerical methods can be used to evaluate dispersion of pollutants from stacks at sensitive receptors. However, numerical methods have limitations and simplifications that can significantly affect its predictions. An alternate way of analyzing stack re-entrainment is with physical modeling in a wind tunnel. In such a study, a scale model that accounts for buildings, topography, and vegetation is used with planned and alternate stack designs to determine the toxic emission impacts on air intakes and other sensitive locations. In a wind tunnel study different stack designs and possible mitigation options can be evaluated. This method is superior to numerical methods (e.g., dispersion models) because it accounts for the immediate structures, topography, and vegetation that is often ignored or oversimplified in numerical methods. This presentation will show a hypothetical case study evaluating a site with toxic air emissions using AERMOD and physical modeling.

New Guideline on Air Quality Models and the Electric Utility Industry

The new EPA guideline on air quality models makes several changes, including adopting AERMOD version 16216r as the new default model. It establishes a two-tiered approach for modeling ozone and secondary PM2.5 formation, using existing empirical relationships (Tier 1) or chemical transport models (Tier 2). CALPUFF is no longer preferred for long-range transport modeling beyond 50 km. The guideline also allows the use of prognostic meteorological data in some cases. While the changes aim to promote consistency, the increased flexibility may lead to legal challenges and delays.

Air pollution Assessment (GIS,RS Approach)

Ehsan Hamzei

This document summarizes several studies that used remote sensing (RS) and geographic information systems (GIS) to assess air pollution. It describes studies that used RS data from MODIS, Landsat, and other satellites combined with ground measurements to analyze correlations between land use, thermal patterns, and air pollution levels in various cities around the world. The document also provides an overview of the Terra, Aqua, and ERS-2 satellites and their instruments that have been used to monitor air pollutants like carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and aerosols from space.

100528 satellite obs_china_husar

This document discusses the challenges of characterizing air pollution using remote sensing observations over China. It describes the seven dimensions of data - spatial, height, time, particle size, composition, shape, and mixing - needed to fully characterize air pollution. While each individual observation method or data set has limitations, together they can provide consistent global-scale observations. There remain significant challenges to integrating data from multiple sensors to accurately measure air pollution. International collaboration combining global satellite data with detailed local observations in China may help advance progress in addressing this issue.

Detection of fossil fuel emission trends across the globe: Challenge of natur...

This document discusses using data from satellite instruments and carbon cycle models to attribute trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide to specific regions and sources. It describes the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) model which uses data from satellites like OCO-2 and GOSAT to constrain process models and attribute variability in the global carbon cycle to spatially resolved surface fluxes. The document examines using CMS-Flux to detect trends in net CO2 fluxes from different regions within 10 years or between two global stocktakes, though natural variability introduces uncertainty. It also explores using multiple climate models to simulate the effects of fossil fuel emissions and natural carbon cycle feedbacks on regional net CO2 trends.

Air quality 101

A-Onetech Ltd.

The document discusses three main topics: 1. The three types of air pollution: particulate matter, bioburden, and volatile organic compounds. It notes that 85% of air particles are 0.3 microns, which can be harmful. 2. A comparison of air and water quality, noting that while water can be seen, smelled, and tasted, air is invisible and must be constantly inhaled. Indoor air can contain many contaminants. 3. An explanation of HEPA filters, which are 99.97% effective at removing particles down to 0.3 microns, and the use of multi-stage portable air filtration units to clean rooms.

Energy-Saving Lamps & Health

Currently, conventional incandescent lamps are in the process of being replaced with more energy-efficient lamps, mainly compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs). Fluorescent light has been used for many years in overhead fluorescent tubes without causing any problems. Nevertheless, certain “light sensitive” citizens’ associations have voiced concerns about compact fluorescent lamps. Do these energy-saving lamps aggravate the symptoms in patients with certain diseases?

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Conference on the Environment- GUERRA presentation Nov 19, 2014

AERMOD CHANGES AND UPDATES

Ma, Jin: Inverse modelling of global carbonyl sulfide budget using TM5-4DVAR ...

INNOVATIVE DISPERSION MODELING PRACTICES TO ACHIEVE A REASONABLE LEVEL OF CON...

AIR DISPERSION MODELING HIGHLIGHTS FROM 2012 ACE

EFFECTS OF MET DATA PROCESSING IN AERMOD CONCENTRATIONS

Effects of Wind Direction on VOC Concentrations in Southeast Kansas

Innovative Dispersion Modeling Practices to Achieve a Reasonable Level of Con...

EVALUATION OF SO2 AND NOX OFFSET RATIOS TO ACCOUNT FOR SECONDARY PM2.5 FORMATION

Lauvaux, Thomas: Uncertainty-based analysis on constraining continental carbo...

Use of Probabilistic Statistical Techniques in AERMOD Modeling Evaluations

State of Utah, Salt Lake City

Utah's Air quality Program

Comparison of AERMOD and CALPUFF Modeling of an SO2 Nonattainment Area in Nor...

BREEZE Software

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Detection of fossil fuel emission trends across the globe: Challenge of natur...

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Conference on the Environment- GUERRA presentation Nov 19, 2014

AERMOD CHANGES AND UPDATES

Ma, Jin: Inverse modelling of global carbonyl sulfide budget using TM5-4DVAR ...

INNOVATIVE DISPERSION MODELING PRACTICES TO ACHIEVE A REASONABLE LEVEL OF CON...

AIR DISPERSION MODELING HIGHLIGHTS FROM 2012 ACE

EFFECTS OF MET DATA PROCESSING IN AERMOD CONCENTRATIONS

Effects of Wind Direction on VOC Concentrations in Southeast Kansas

Innovative Dispersion Modeling Practices to Achieve a Reasonable Level of Con...

EVALUATION OF SO2 AND NOX OFFSET RATIOS TO ACCOUNT FOR SECONDARY PM2.5 FORMATION

Lauvaux, Thomas: Uncertainty-based analysis on constraining continental carbo...

Use of Probabilistic Statistical Techniques in AERMOD Modeling Evaluations

Utah's Air quality Program

Comparison of AERMOD and CALPUFF Modeling of an SO2 Nonattainment Area in Nor...

C6.05: New ocean-colour products for the user community - Shubha Sathyendrana...

Using low cost particle sensors for characterisation of urban air pollution: ...

Using Physical Modeling to Evaluate Re-entrainment of Stack Emissions

New Guideline on Air Quality Models and the Electric Utility Industry

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This document summarizes particulate matter (PM) air pollution and associated health risks. PM comes from natural and human-made sources and varies in size. Small PM can travel deep into lungs. PM is regulated as a criteria air pollutant due to links to premature death, heart and lung disease. Factors like weather, topography and inversions affect PM concentrations. Modern epidemiological studies use monitoring and statistical methods to establish relationships between PM exposure and health outcomes. Research priorities aim to better characterize sources, exposures, health impacts and susceptible groups.

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Air_Quality_Index_Forecasting Prediction BP

AnbuShare

The document presents a new method called GA-KELM for predicting air quality index (AQI) values. It introduces extreme learning machines (ELM) and discusses their limitations. It then proposes using a genetic algorithm to optimize the number of hidden nodes, thresholds, and weights in a kernel extreme learning machine (KELM) model in order to improve prediction accuracy. Experimental results on real-world datasets show the GA-KELM method trains faster and more accurately predicts AQI values than other methods like CMAQ, SVM, and DBN-BP.

130205 epa exc_event_seminar

This document summarizes Rudolf Husar's presentation on exceptional event analysis and decision support systems. It discusses using diverse data like satellites, models, and real-time monitoring to evaluate exceptional events like wildfires, dust storms, and their impact on air quality measurements. Specific examples are presented of exceptional events from dust from Asia and Africa impacting North America, as well as wildfires in Georgia impacting ozone and PM2.5 levels. Tools like the Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System model and satellite data are highlighted for their ability to analyze the transport and impact of these aerosol plumes to support regulatory decisions. The goal of reconciliation of emissions, observations, and models is discussed to improve the evaluation of exceptional events

ONLINE SCALABLE SVM ENSEMBLE LEARNING METHOD (OSSELM) FOR SPATIO-TEMPORAL AIR...

IJDKP

Environmental air pollution studies fail to consider the fact that air pollution is a spatio-temporal problem. The volume and complexity of the data have created the need to explore various machine learning models, however, those models have advantages and disadvantages when applied to regional air pollution analysis, furthermore, most environmental problems are global distribution problems. This research addressed spatio-temporal problem using decentralized computational technique named Online Scalable SVM Ensemble Learning Method (OSSELM). Evaluation criteria for computational air pollution analysis includes: accuracy, real time & prediction, spatio-temporal and decentralised analysis, we assert that these criteria can be improved using the proposed OSSELM. Special consideration is given to distributed ensemble to resolve spatio-temporal data collection problem (i.e. the data collected from multiple monitoring stations dispersed over a geographical location). Moreover, the experimental results demonstrated that the proposed OSSELM produced impressive results compare to SVM ensemble for air pollution analysis in Auckland region.

ONLINE SCALABLE SVM ENSEMBLE LEARNING METHOD (OSSELM) FOR SPATIO-TEMPORAL AIR...

IJDKP

ONLINE SCALABLE SVM ENSEMBLE LEARNING METHOD (OSSELM) FOR SPATIO-TEMPORAL AIR...

IJDKP

130205 epa ee_presentation_subm

Rudolf B. Husar presented at the EPA on exceptional smoke and dust events. He discussed using diverse data like satellites, models, and real-time data in a decision support system to evaluate these events. The NAAPS aerosol model assimilates satellite data to provide the 3D structure of smoke, dust, and other aerosols. Long-term NAAPS data from 2006 to present show the vertical distribution of different aerosols. Satellite data help reduce biases between surface PM measurements and air quality models.

Seminar 2

ssuserbf2656

This study developed a new three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system to assimilate MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) observations. The system analyzes the 3D mass concentrations of 14 aerosol species in the WRF-Chem model as part of a one-step minimization procedure. Assimilating AOD observations from MODIS improved forecasts of AOD and surface PM10 concentrations compared to the control run without data assimilation, as shown through comparisons with AERONET and CALIPSO observations of a major dust storm over East Asia in March 2010.

Atmospheric Pollution Research

Shannon Green

The document describes the extension of the CB05 chemical mechanism for use in global-through-urban scale atmospheric models. The extended mechanism, called CB05_GE, includes additional gas-phase reactions for stratospheric chemistry, mercury chemistry, and halogen chemistry. It also includes heterogeneous reactions and species involved in secondary organic aerosol formation. CB05_GE contains 289 reactions among 118 chemical species, compared to 177 reactions among 62 species in the original CB05 mechanism. The extensions allow CB05_GE to simulate atmospheric chemistry over a wide range of conditions from the lower troposphere to the lower stratosphere.

Moe_Mentzel_SETAC_Pittsburgh_PesticidesInStreams_20221102_2300.pptx

Jannicke Moe

We present a Northern European case study from the recent SETAC Pellston workshop on integration of global climate change (GCC) modeling into ecological risk assessment. In Northern Europe, global climate change (GCC) is expected to result in increased temperature and precipitation. The changes in weather patterns are expected to increase the occurrence of crop pests such as weeds, fungal disease and insect pests. Increased pest pressures can in turn be expected to then alter agricultural practices such as the frequency and combination of pesticide applications. Additionally, climate change may potentially have more direct effects on the environmental exposures in the transport, fate and degradation of pesticides. A Bayesian network (BN) has previously been developed as a meta-model for incorporating future climate projections and pesticide application scenarios with information from toxic effects data to support environmental risk assessment for streams in agricultural areas. This BN model was initially parameterized for a Norwegian case study with predicted environmental concentrations from a processed-based pesticide exposure model and species sensitivity distributions derived from toxicity tests data. Within the Pellston workshop, we aimed to improve the existing BN model by incorporating more recent and realistic climate change scenarios, a higher number of climate models, and better methods for regional downscaling. An exposure prediction model was run with alternative climate model that accounted for specific environmental factors linked to the study area, chemical properties of the pesticides, and more realistic pesticide application scenarios. Our experiences from this case study will aid efforts to better account for uncertainty related to climate change in exposure modeling, effect assessment, and risk characterization. The graphical display of the BN model approach can also aid communication of risk under climate change scenarios to stakeholders such as policy makers and regulators. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Wu, Mousong: Using SMOS soil moisture data combining CO2 flask samples to con...

Mauricio Zambrano-Bigiarini

This document summarizes research using soil moisture data from the SMOS satellite and CO2 flask samples to constrain carbon fluxes within a carbon cycle data assimilation system from 2010-2015. The researchers found that assimilating soil moisture data improved the model's representation of carbon cycle variability, fluxes, and correlations with climate indices compared to using CO2 data alone. Additionally, combining soil moisture and vegetation optical data helped reduce uncertainties in modeled tropical region carbon fluxes. Overall, the study demonstrates that multiple remote sensing data sources can better constrain global carbon cycle modeling than any single dataset alone.

Climate Change effect in Thailand and ASEAN region

ipcc-media

A changing climate leads to more extreme weather and climate events. This document discusses climate change projections for Thailand using downscaled global climate models. It summarizes observed temperature and rainfall trends from 1965-1989 to 1990-2006 and projects further increases in temperature and changes in rainfall patterns for Thailand through the 21st century depending on greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Time series, maps and bar charts are presented to illustrate observed trends and modeled projections at regional and local scales down to 200 meters.

Dubbs, PE, CM, Kasi, Trinity Consultants, PM2.5 Regulatory Guidance Overview ...

Kevin Perry

Application of the extreme learning machine algorithm for the

mehmet şahin

Global Sensitivity Analysis for the Calibration of a Fully-distributed Hydrol...

Computer model simulations are widely used in the investigation of complex hydrological systems. In particular, hydrological models are tools that help both to better understand hydrological processes and to predict extreme events such as floods and droughts. Usually, model parameters need to be estimated through calibration, in order to constrain model outputs to observed variables. Relevant model parameters used for calibration are usually selected based on expert knowledge of the modeller or by using a local one-at-a-time (OAT) sensitivity analysis (SA). However, in case of complex models those approaches may not result in proper identification of the most sensitive parameters for model calibration. In particular local OAT SA methods are only effective for assessing the relative importance of input factors when the model is linear, monotonic, and additive, which is rarely the case for complex environmental models. In contrast Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is a formal method for statistical evaluation of relevant parameters that contribute significantly to model performance. GSA techniques explore the entire feasible space of each model parameter, and they do not require any assumptions on the model nature (such as linearity or additivity). In this work we apply the GSA to LISFLOOD, a fully-distributed hydrological model used for flood forecasting at Pan-European scale within the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Two case studies are considered, snowmelt- and evapotranspiration-driven catchments, to identify sensitive parameters for both types of hydrological regimes. Results of the GSA will then be used for selecting parameters that need to be estimated during model calibration. Considering the large number of parameters of a fully-distributed model, a two-step GSA framework is applied. First, we implement the computationally efficient screening method of Morris. This method requires a limited number of simulations and produces a qualitative ranking and selection of important factors. As a second step, we apply the variance-based method of Sobol, only to the subset of factors determined as important during the previous screening. The method of Sobol provides quantitative estimates for first order and total order sensitivity indexes of input factors. The calibration results after the GSA will be described for both case studies and compared against those obtained by using only prior expert knowledge

Ott, Lesley: Low latency flux and concentration datasets in support of greenh...

(1) NASA has built a quasi-operational global modeling and data assimilation system to monitor carbon dioxide concentrations with about 3 months of latency. (2) The system assimilates observations from NASA's OCO-2 satellite to produce 3D CO2 fields and has been used to track changes from events like COVID-19 and the 2019-20 Indian Ocean Dipole. (3) NASA is working to improve accessibility of greenhouse gas data products and push toward true near real-time monitoring through initiatives like EIS-GHG and by addressing challenges around data latency and developing quasi-operational flux estimation methods.

Climate Change Impacts And Adaptation - Science Meets Policy - Dr Margaret De...

The document discusses how climate change impacts policy and decision making by providing scientific information and data, outlines how the EPA facilitates interactions between climate science and policy through research programs and reports summarizing the state of knowledge on climate impacts, and describes how Met Éireann is moving from regional to global climate modeling as part of an international consortium to provide more accurate climate projections and information.

Similar to Transboundary Modelling of Particulate Matter with REMOTE- Saji Varghese, NUIG (20)

Climate Modelling for Ireland -Dr Ray McGrath, Met Eireann

Practices and Challenges in Applying Mesoscale Data to Air Quality Analyses

Seminar 2.2

Simulation of atmospheric mercury dispersion and deposition in Tehran city

Air_Quality_Index_Forecasting Prediction BP

130205 epa exc_event_seminar

ONLINE SCALABLE SVM ENSEMBLE LEARNING METHOD (OSSELM) FOR SPATIO-TEMPORAL AIR...

130205 epa ee_presentation_subm

Seminar 2

Atmospheric Pollution Research

Moe_Mentzel_SETAC_Pittsburgh_PesticidesInStreams_20221102_2300.pptx

Wu, Mousong: Using SMOS soil moisture data combining CO2 flask samples to con...

Climate Change effect in Thailand and ASEAN region

Dubbs, PE, CM, Kasi, Trinity Consultants, PM2.5 Regulatory Guidance Overview ...

Application of the extreme learning machine algorithm for the

Global Sensitivity Analysis for the Calibration of a Fully-distributed Hydrol...

Ott, Lesley: Low latency flux and concentration datasets in support of greenh...

Climate Change Impacts And Adaptation - Science Meets Policy - Dr Margaret De...

More from Environmental Protection Agency, Ireland

Webinar for Applicants - EPA Research Call 2022

The webinar provided an overview of the EPA Research Call 2022. It covered the introduction to EPA Research 2030 and its focus on achieving environmental objectives. It then discussed the details of the 2022 research call, including the two open topics, application process and timeline, eligibility criteria, and types of funding available. The presentation concluded with guidance on the application process and financial rules, and a Q&A session to address any questions.

EPA Water Conference 2021 Posters

This document presents research on approaches to mitigate pollution from the herbicide MCPA (2-methyl-4-chloro-phenoxyacetic acid) in water catchments used as drinking water sources. The research monitored MCPA concentrations spatially and temporally in an agricultural catchment in Ireland that supplies drinking water. Key findings include: MCPA concentrations exceeded drinking water limits and persisted in the system; concentrations increased downstream; and concentrations correlated positively with improved grassland and negatively with rough grazing land use. The research demonstrates the need for enhanced monitoring and questions the sustainability of certain land uses like improved grassland near drinking water sources.

Signpost Seminar: Water quality - national problems, local solutions

This document discusses water quality issues in Ireland and solutions to address them. National water quality monitoring data shows 47% of rivers and 62% of estuaries are in unsatisfactory condition. The two most widespread problems are excess nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus), with phosphorus and sediment issues impacting 60% of waters needing measures. Maps have been created to identify critical source areas for phosphorus and nitrogen losses from agriculture to target remediation efforts. Measures proposed include riparian buffers, wetlands, and nutrient management plans to reduce nitrogen and phosphorus at their sources and intercept transport pathways.

Dr Pete Lunn, EPA, HSE and ESRI, Environment, Health and Wellbeing Conference...

This document discusses collective action problems in healthcare and environmental policy. It defines collective action problems as situations where individuals would benefit most from cooperation but fail to cooperate due to conflicting self interests. The COVID-19 response has shown remarkably high levels of public cooperation, potentially offering lessons for issues like antimicrobial resistance and climate change that require collective action. Key factors for successful collective action include clear communication of strategies that benefit all, a shared group identity against a threat, and enforcement of cooperative behaviors.

Professor Dearbhaile Morris, EPA, HSE and ESRI, Environment, Health and Wellb...

Dr Caroline Garvan, EPA, HSE and ESRI, Environment, Health and Wellbeing Conf...

This document discusses Ireland's National Action Plan to combat antimicrobial resistance (iNAP1) in the agricultural sector. It outlines the strategic objectives of iNAP1, which are to increase knowledge and awareness, enhance surveillance, reduce infection and disease spread, optimize antibiotic use, and support research and innovation. The document reviews some successes of iNAP1 including increased collaboration, awareness raising, and stakeholders taking action. It also discusses ongoing challenges like changing behaviors and maintaining consumer confidence. Learnings from iNAP1 emphasized the need for consistent messaging. Progress has included measurable outcomes like reduced antibiotic resistance in broiler chickens. The overall goal of iNAP1 and its successor iNAP2 is a reduction in the volume

Rosarie lynch, EPA, HSE and ESRI, Environment, Health and Wellbeing Conferenc...

The document summarizes progress made under Ireland's National Action Plan on Antimicrobial Resistance 2017-2020 (iNAP 1) and outlines plans for iNAP 2. It discusses successes in areas like surveillance, guidelines and awareness campaigns. It also notes challenges from COVID-19, which led to delays in developing iNAP 2. Resources have been substantially invested in 2018-2021 to support iNAP 1 goals and respond to COVID-19, including new IPC staff across healthcare settings. Stakeholder engagement for iNAP 2 will begin following scoping of ongoing activities and lessons from COVID-19.

Martin Adams, EPA, HSE and ESRI, Environment, Health and Wellbeing Conference...

Professor Michael Depledge, EPA, HSE and ESRI, Environment, Health and Wellbe...

The document discusses the challenges of achieving a non-toxic environment and proposes key actions to develop a more sustainable chemicals policy. It notes that while regulations aim to keep chemical concentrations below toxic levels, biodiversity continues to decline and human exposures are rising. It argues for intensifying efforts like minimizing chemical releases, banning persistent chemicals, increasing green chemistry and monitoring. The goal is to ultimately reduce both ecological damage and human health impacts from chemicals in the environment.

Ireland's Environment an integrated assessment 2020 - key messages

EPA River Monitoring Fact Sheet

This plain English fact sheet outlines the work done by the EPA in monitoring Ireland’s rivers. Ireland has more than 73,000 km of river channels. If placed end-to-end, they could encircle the Earth almost twice. Three-quarters of these channels are very small streams that typically flow into larger rivers. Biological monitoring has been carried out in Irish rivers since 1971. The current national river monitoring programme covers more than 13,000 km of river channel. The national monitoring programme is run by the EPA and focuses on the main river channels rather than the smaller streams. The programme includes more than 2,800 sites sampled for biology, with almost half of these being sampled for physical and chemical parameters.

EPA Marine Phytoplankton Fact Sheet

This plain English fact sheet outlines the work done by the EPA in monitoring phytoplankton in Ireland's marine environment. The EPA and the Marine Institute sample phytoplankton in estuaries and coastal waters around Ireland. They carry out sampling three times during the summer and once during winter. At each location, they take water samples just below the surface and above the seabed. They use the samples to assess how much phytoplankton is in the water and what species are present. Phytoplankton are tiny, free-floating plants found suspended in the world’s oceans. Their name comes from Greek and means ‘plant drifter’. They are carried along by ocean currents and are usually found floating near the surface of the water. Like all plants they need sunlight to grow. The main sources of nutrients around Ireland’s coast are discharges from wastewater treatment plants and run off from agricultural land. Phytoplankton in the estuaries and coastal waters around Ireland are monitored by the EnvironmentalProtection Agency (EPA) and the Marine Institute. They monitor phytoplankton to assess the quality (status) of our marine environment. They must do this as part of the requirements of the European Water Framework Directive.

EPA Marine Monitoring Fact Sheet

This plain English fact sheet outlines the work done by the EPA in monitoring Ireland’s marine environment. Ecologically healthy marine waters are a valuable natural resource. They support a rich and diverse range of ecosystems, habitats and species, and they are also a source of food – from wild fisheries and aquaculture. They are also important for recreational activities and tourism. Transitional and coastal waters are assessed under the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD). Having coordinated frameworks for water quality for all the water bodies in Ireland, and across Europe, allows us to compare our results with other countries. It allows us to see what works to help us make sure all our water bodies achieve at least ‘good’ status, and no deterioration occurs.

EPA Lake Monitoring Fact Sheet

This plain English fact sheet outlines the work done by the EPA in monitoring Ireland’s lakes. A total of 225 lakes are currently included as part of the national surface waters monitoring programme run by the EPA, this covers around 80% of the surface area of all lakes in Ireland. This includes: • all lakes greater than 50 hectares • lakes that are used for supplying drinking water • lakes that are of regional, local or scientific interest

EPA Lake Monitoring Aquatic Plants Fact Sheet

This Plain English fact sheet outlines the work done by the EPA in monitoring aquatic plants in Irish lakes. Aquatic plants are good at showing if the quality of the water is good or bad and play an important role in lake ecology by providing food and a habitat for many smaller plants, animals and birds. They also: • provide shelter for young fish • help to improve the clarity of the water • help stabilise lake shore banks • reduce the amount of sediment being suspended in the water The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) monitors these aquatic plants at more than 10,000 sites in over 200 lakes once every three years.

14. Funding communities to engage in protecting waters - Fran Igoe, LAWPRO

On 17 and 18 June 2020 the EPA held its National Water Event as an online conference. This year's theme was 'Restoring our waters'. This years event was free to attend. It was the EPA's largest water event ever, with over 1250 attending. To everyone who joined us: thanks for attending; thanks for your probing questions; thanks for your passion; thanks for caring about our waters. We can achieve more working together. Special thanks to all our presenters and the team who worked behind the scenes to make sure this years conference happened. For science and stories about water quality in Ireland, check out www.catchments.ie

13. The BRIDE project: working for multiple benefits - Donal Sheehan, BRIDE P...

12. Working with local communities to protect the Maigue - Tom Harrington, Ma...

11. CatchmentCARE: improving water quality in cross-border catchments - Con M...

On 17 and 18 June 2020 the EPA held its National Water Event as an online conference. This presentation was by Con McLaughlin, Donegal County Council and Andy Griggs, Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon District Council. This year's theme was 'Restoring our waters'. This years event was free to attend. It was the EPA's largest water event ever, with over 1250 attending. To everyone who joined us: thanks for attending; thanks for your probing questions; thanks for your passion; thanks for caring about our waters. We can achieve more working together. Special thanks to all our presenters and the team who worked behind the scenes to make sure this years conference happened. For science and stories about water quality in Ireland, check out www.catchments.ie

10. Restoring the River Camac - Mary-Liz Walshe, DCC