1. Rudolf B. Husar
Washington University, St. Louis
Seminar Presented at
Environmental Protection Agency, Research Triangle Park
February 5, 2013
Exceptional Event Analysis for 2012
Smoke and Dust Events
Exceptional Events: Past, Present, Future
Data, Models, Tools: Decision Support Systems
NRL NAAPS Model: Advancement in Science
2. Mexican Smoke over the E. U, May 1998
Record Smoke Impact on PM Concentrations
Smoke Event
3. Asian Dust Cloud over N. America
On April 27, the dust cloud arrived in
North America.
Regional average PM10
concentrations increased to 65 mg/m3
In Washington State, PM10
concentrations exceeded 100 mg/m3
Asian Dust 100 mg/m3
Hourly PM10
4. Continental/Hemispheric Dust Events over the US
Gobi dust in spring
Sahara in summer
Regional-scale fine dust
events are mainly
from
intercontinental transport
Fine Dust Events, 1992-2003 - VIEWS
ug/m3
5. EE Rule Features – RH Perspective
• Not rigid, weight of evidence approach
• Not based on single FRM measurement
• Encourages use of diverse data and models
• Satellites, real-time, model etc.
• There is a role of science in AQ Management
• EE events demand science, particularly the ‘but for’ clause
6. Near-Real-Time Data for May 11, 07 GA Smoke
Displayed on DataFed Analysts Console
Pane 1,2: MODIS visible satellite images – smoke pattern
Pane 3,4: AirNOW PM2.5, Surf. Visibility – PM surface conc.
Pane 5,6: AirNOW Ozone, Surf. Wind – Ozone, transport pattern
Pane 7,8: OMI satellite Total, Tropospheric NO2 – NO2 column conc.
Pane 9,10: OMI satellite Aerosol Index, Fire P-xels – Smoke, Fire
Pane 11,12: GOCART, NAAPS Models of smoke – Smoke forecast
1
10
2 4
5 8
7
6
3
9 12
11
Console Links
May 07, 2007,
May 08, 2007
May 09, 2007
May 10, 2007
May 11, 2007
May 12, 2007
May 13, 2007
May 14, 2007
May 15, 2007
12. Trend of PM2.5 Concentration
A reason for the 2006-2010 EE flag decline is the
overall reduction in PM2.5 concentrations.
2000-2003 avg. 2009-2012 avg.
As a result of PM2.5 decline, the number of
>35ug/m3 samples has also declined dramatically.
No NAAQS exceedances-no EE flag.
>35 ug/m3 station count
13. Regional Haze Rule: Natural Aerosol
The goal is to attain natural conditions by 2064;
Baseline during 2000-2004, first Natural Cond. SIP in 2008;
SIP & Natural Condition Revisions every 10 yrs
14. PM2.5 EE Flag Decline
Expected Increase in 2012
Trend of EE flags for PM2.5between 2006 and 2012
based on the official EPA AQS database. The EE
flags declined tenfold between 2007-8 and 2010-11
However, in 2012 the average AOT from smoke
was higher than any year between 2006 and 2012,
probably due the severe drought. The EE flags for
2012 are expected to rise again in 2012.
Drought
Anomaly,
2012
15. Smoke Super-Events in 2012:
August 1- August
20 20
June 20- July 10
Average Smoke
Emission Rate
Average Smoke
Optical Depth
Average Smoke Surface
Concentration
17. Exceptional Event
Decision Support System (EE DSS)
EE_CATT Screencast
NASA Grant: 2009-2012
NASA and NAAPS Products for Air Quality Decision Making,
D. Westphal, PI, R. Husar, CoI
Washington University, McDonald Academy for Global Energy
and Environmental Partnership (MAGEEP)
21. Oklahoma Dust Plume Event over Huntsville, Alabama
October 19, 2012
NSSTC Rooftop Camera, Looking East, without and with Dust
Kevin Knupp, Michael Newchurch, Udaysankar Nair, Dustin Phillips, David Bowdle, Shih Kuang, Wesley Cantrel,
University of Alabama in Huntsville
Kathy Jones
Chattanooga-Hamilton County Air Pollution Control Bureau
Claire Aiello
WHNT TV, Huntsville, Alabama
Atmospheric Science Brown Bag Mini-Seminar, October 23, 2012
22. Fort Payne (Kim Pendergrass)
Colbert Heights Mountain
Looking East, (Carter Watkins)
Lake Guntersville
Monte Sano (Rebekah Bynum)
Donegal Drive, looking west
(Megan Hayes, WHNT)
WHNT TV photographs
Monte Sano
(Jacks Camera Network, WHNT)
Oklahoma Dust Plume Event over Huntsville, Alabama, October 19, 2012
24. Oklahoma Dust Plume Event over Huntsville, Alabama, October 19, 2012
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/mips/data/current/ceilometer/
Time-Height Cross-Section of Relative Signal Intensity from Vertically Viewing Ceilometer
Mobile Integrated Profiling System (MIPS), University of Alabama in Huntsville
Altitude in km, time in Coordinated Universal Time (CDT = UTC - 05:00), intensity in false color
Peak at ~17 UTC
(12 N EDT)
25. EE DSS Tools: Data System Architecture
• Data are accessible from the Air Quality Data Network (ADN) by the AQ Community Catalog
• ADN is facilitated by the GEO AQ Community of Practice (GEO AQ CoP), including R. Husar’s group.
• The generic client tools (red boxes) are for processing and visualization; used in many applications
• Specialized Application Tools are dedicated to specific applications, e.g. event detection
27. EE DSS Links
CATT – General
EE_CATT
121015_Montana_Dust Event
110414_Kansas_Smoke Event
Screencast
Anomaly Map
28. Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System
NAAPS
by
D. Westphal et al, NRL
Why I luv NAAPS:
1. Assimilates satellite aerosol optical thickness and fire pixels
2. Provides 4D aerosol structure for dust, smoke, sulfate, sea salt
3. Open access to 10 years of global simulations (via DataFed)
29. Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction System
September 11, 2011
Key:
Smoke = blue
Dust = green
Sulfate = red
D. Westphal
30. NASA Data for NAAPS Initialization
Forecasting is an initial value problem:
Requires the 3-D distribution of aerosol concentration at the start of the forecast:
: Assimilation of previous forecast + information from remote sensing of aerosols
Current capabilities:
Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD; 2-D) (MODIS and MISR)
Extinction (3-D) (CALIPSO)
+ Land/Ocean MODIS
+ Land/Ocean MISR
Natural run + Ocean MODIS
+ land/Ocean MISR
Multiple aerosol sensors are critical for assimilation.
34. Goal: ‘Reconciliation’, ‘Harmonization’…’Closure’
By iterative refinement of of Emissions, Observations and Models
HTAP, 2010
Reconciling emissions, observations and models (EOMs), has been elusive
EOMs are generally autonomous and quite separate activities
Software tools are available to support EOM reconciliation
But closing the EOM loop requires “interoperability” of people and machines
35. 4D Dust, Smoke, Sulfate
Vertical Cross Section Views
Vertical dust cross sections at about 120 (surface plume) and 1000 km (elevated plume).
Knowing the vertical structure of smoke and dust plumes is critical to EE documentation
The DataFed Browser now incorporates vertical cross section views
36. Long-Term Model Data 2006-Now
A significant fraction of the dust vertical column is in the troposphere and it is ‘global’
Most of surface dust is local and highly variable in space and time
Emission
Vertical AOT
Surface Conc.
39. EPA PM2.5 – CMAQ Model PM2.5 Bias
Winter
OBSERVATION MODEL
PM2.5 BIAS
40. Tool to Iteratively Reduce the Bias
Actual closure to be worked out by the AQ community
DJF JJA SON
MAM
Nitrate
Low in DJF
Add nitrate source
Inverse modeling of
VIEWS Nitrate
Organics
Low in DJF
Improved smoke by
combined chemical,
satellite, space-time
Fine Dust
Low in MAM
Add Sahara, local dust
Dust and smoke BC for
CMAQ – e.g. NAAPS
Bio. Organics
High MAM & JJA
Reduce biogenic OC
Adjust source trem
NAAPS Dust, July
VIEWS NO3 DJF
CMAQ
EPA PM2.5 – CMAQ Model PM2.5 Bias
Winter
41. Many Thanks:
• Kari Hoijarvi
• Erin Robinson
• Rich Poirot
• Doug Westphal
• Neil Frank
Editor's Notes
The Exceptional Event that triggered the fist regulatory response by EPA was the May 1998 Mexican smoke event. The color images from the NASA SeaWiFS satellite (louched in 1997) allowed the detection and following the evolution of the smoke event.Based on the record smoke impact on the PM10 concentration over the entire Eastern US, the EPA issued a memorandum to the States, as a precursor of the Exceptional Event Rule, promulgated in 2007.------------------Since time immemorial, smoke from forest fires, wind-blown dust storms and other ‘exceptional events’ have punctuated the air quality with extreme concentrations of atmospheric particulates and gases. However, historically the spatio-temporal pattern of air quality during such events was sparse and patchy. This has changed dramatically during the sensing revolution of the 1990s, in particular through the near-real-time availability of color satellite images. Satellites the became the primary sensory inputs for event detection and spatio-temporal characterization. Satellite observations were also responsible for formally including Exceptional Events into the AQ management process. When combined with routine surface-based monitoring data …In the past, the definition and documentation of events has been subjective, dependent on the analyst, the is event type etc.The routine overall characterization of detected events is accomplished by the rich real-time data through delivered through the Analysts ConsolesObjective event definition is now possible through spatio-temporal statistical parameters derivable from routine monitoring dataand their causes is still poorly understood and largely unpredictable.
The spatial distribution of EE flags attributed to Mexican and Canadian fires (left). EE flags attributed to prescribed and wild fires within the US (right). The time series below each map shows the number of flags throughout the country for each day. The spatial distribution of EE flags attributed to African and Asian dust. (left). EE flags attributed to dust origination within the US(right).
NAAPS general description. Species are sulfate, dust, smoke, and sea salt. Aspects impacted by NASA remote sensing products are specification of sources and initialization.Each term in the equation can dominate at one time or another. At a source grid point, S is dominant. One grid point away, advection could be largest. In a cloud R is largest. etc.Image is a composite of geostationary clouds, fires from FLAMBE (pink and yellow dots), and NAAPS aerosol plume forecasts (see legend). It shows 1) production and transport of anthropogenic aerosol in northern latitudes (red), 2) Saharan dust over the Atlantic being scavenged by two tropical cyclones, and 3) smoke from thousands of African fires transported to S. America.
NAAPS initialization benefits from the current 2-D assimilation of aerosol optical depth (AOD) provided by satellite remote sensing (MODIS and MISR) and also 3-D extinction values derived from the CALIPSO CALIOP lidar. The initial conditions are thus improved by assimilating these two parameters.
The August 2012 Western US smoke is a Continental-scale event.While the NAAPS AOT column concentration stretches over much of the continent (>5000 km), the smoke impact on the surface is diminished by about 1000 km. This indicates long distance smoke transport aloft. In fact the PM2.5 concentrations reported in Airnow, do not show smoke impact except near the fires in Idaho.
