APM webinar arranged by the YNL branch. Speaker: Dr David Worsley. This webinar, held on 1 June 2021, discussed the hard to quantify (but highly important) risks that can cause projects to fail to achieve their objectives. Project risk managers tend to concentrate on cost and time from the project “cost-time-quality” triangle. Critical risks that may lead projects to fail to provide the functions which are intended can thus receive disproportionately low attention. Using examples from the transport industry, Dr Worsley described a variety of reasons why a project may not achieve its objectives. For project professionals to identify these risks will require a deeper knowledge of how their industry creates benefits and value. Fortunately, treating the creation of a project business case as a project in its own right can assist with this. Combining risk and value management processes can also help to flush out these issues. https://www.apm.org.uk/news/risks-to-project-benefits-realisation-some-lessons-from-transport-webinar/

1. Risks to Project Benefits
Realisation: Some
Lessons from Transport
Dr. David Worsley
MAPM MIVM FIRM FStratPS

2. Career (to 2020)
1990-2001
2004-2007
University of Manchester (B.A. (Econ.) & Ph.D.)
Risk & Value Analyst
2005-2007 Diploma in Statistics
2007-2012 Strategic Planner (East Coast Main Line)
2010-2012 Network Rail representative on HS2 Birmingham
to Leeds route working groups
2012-2016 Risk & Value Manager (London North Eastern)
2013
onwards
Visiting Lecturer, Centre for Railway Research,
Newcastle University
June 2015 Fellow of the Institute of Risk Management
2016-2019 Associate Director
Sept. 2016 Fellow of the Strategic Planning Society
Nov. 2019 Head of Rail Specification & Delivery

3. ◼ Source: Department for Transport (2012), The Estimation and Treatment
of Scheme Costs: TAG Unit 3.5.9, London: Department for Transport,
August 2012, p. 16 
Histograms
and ogives
(S-curves)

4. ◼ Source: Sydney Opera House (2006), 50 Fun Facts about Sydney Opera
House, Sydney, New South Wales: Sydney Opera House, Nov. 2006, p. 1 
Acoustic difficulties?
The plan:
$7 million
4 years
Multi-purpose
The reality:
$102 million
14 years
It’s complicated

5. ◼ Source: National Audit Office (2020), Lessons Learned from Major
Programmes: Report by the Comptroller and Auditor General, HC 960,
London: National Audit Office, 20th Nov. 2020, p. 8 
Government Major Projects Portfolio (GMPP)

6. Some risks to quality or function
◼Partial descoping
◼Strategic misalignment
◼Technical incompatibility
◼Demand shortfall
◼Wider impacts

7. Source: National Audit Office
(2006), The Modernisation of
the West Coast Main Line:
Report by the Comptroller and
Auditor General, HC 22
Session 2006-2007, Norwich:
The Stationery Office, 22nd Nov.
2006, p. 27 
West Coast Route
Modernisation
140 mph?

8. ◼ Source: Sir Peter Hendy (2015), Report from Sir Peter Hendy to the
Secretary of State for Transport on the Replanning of Network Rail's
Investment Programme, London: Network Rail, 25th Nov. 2015, p. 33 
The Hendy Review
CP5 Delivery Plan (2014-2019)

9. ◼ Source: National Audit Office (2016), Modernising the Great Western
Railway: Report by the Comptroller and Auditor General, HC 781, London:
NAO, 9th Nov. 2016, p. 12 
Great Western Route Modernisation

10. ◼ Source: Andrew McNaughton (2015), Released Capacity, London: HS2,
Feb. 2015, p. 9 
Mixed speed traffic (1)

11. ◼ Source: Scottish National Party (2015), Stronger for Scotland: SNP
Manifesto 2015, Edinburgh: SNP, April 2015, p. 10 
Politics?
“We will also seek
adequate transport
infrastructure investment,
with a particular aim of
improving transport and
communication links
across the north of these
isles. That includes
connecting Scotland to
HS2 as a priority, with
construction beginning in
Scotland as well as
England, and a high
speed connection
between Glasgow,
Edinburgh and the north
of England as part of any
high-speed rail network.”

12. Source: David
Hancock & Robin
Holt (2003), Tame,
Messy and Wicked
Problems in Risk
Management,
Working Paper
Series WPS054,
Manchester:
Manchester
Metropolitan
University Business
School, Sept. 2003,
p. 10 
Wicked messes

13. ◼ Bent Flyvbjerg, Nils Bruzelius & Werner Rothengatter (2003),
Megaprojects and Risk: An Anatomy of Ambition, Cambridge: C.U.P., 13th
Feb. 2003, ix + 207 pp.
Bent Flyvbjerg (b. 1952)

14. ◼ Source: Bert De Reyck, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Ioannis Fragkos,
Jeremy Harrison, Daniel Read & Mike Bartlett (2017), Optimism Bias
Study: Recommended Adjustments to Optimism Bias Uplifts, London:
Department for Transport, Jan. 2017, Final Report, p. 10, p. 26 
Refining optimism bias for rail?

15. ◼ Source: Steer Davies Gleave (2010), Station Usage and Demand
Forecasts for Newly Opened Railway Lines and Stations: Final Report,
London: Steer Davies Gleave, August 2010, p. 20 
Inaccuracy of demand forecasts

16. Source:
Department
for Transport
(2010), High
Speed Rail:
Presented to
Parliament
by the
Secretary of
State for
Transport by
Command of
Her Majesty,
Cm 7827,
London: DfT,
March 2010,
p. 60 
Geography
and
productivity

17. ◼ Source: Ed Cox & Katie Schmuecker (2011), On the Wrong Track: An
Analysis of the Autumn Statement Announcements on Transport
Infrastructure, Newcastle upon Tyne: IPPR North, Dec. 2011, p. 8 
Alleged regional disparities

18. Rebalancing the UK’s economic geography? (1)
◼ Source: David Theiss & Helen Kersley (2013), High Speed 2: One Track
Mind? Considering the Alternatives to HS2, London: New Economics
Foundation, Jan. 2013, p. 5 

19. ◼ Source: Department for Transport (2013), The Transport Business Cases,
London: DfT, Jan. 2013, p. 4 
The five parts of a transport
business case

20. ◼ Source: Neil Anderson (2018), Evidencing the Wider Impacts of Transport
Schemes: How I Learned to Love the Transport Business Case, Oxford:
Amey Consulting, May 2018, p. 8 
The five case model

21. Risk in the business case
Case Usually included? Suggested contents
Strategic No Misalignment risks
Stakeholder risks
Dependencies
Economic Indirectly Optimism bias
Operating cost (OpEx) risks
Macroeconomic risks
Modelling risks
Uncertainties
Commercial Partially Risk allocation (between contracting parties)
Contractual risks
Financial Yes Capital cost (CapEx) risks
Schedule risks
Political risks?
Management Yes General risks
Constraints, assumptions and issues
Showstoppers
Gamechangers
Risk management governance

22. ◼ Source: Occupational Safety & Health Branch (2009), Guide for Safety at
Work: Safe Use of Electric Plugs, Hong Kong: Labour Department, May
2009, p. 10 
Unexpected power outage

23. Source:
Institute for
Transport
Studies, Dirck
Van Vliet &
Atkins (2012),
SATURN
Manual,
Epsom:
Atkins, March
2012, Version
11.1, p. 5-27

Routes through Liverpool

24. ◼ Source: WSP (for Shropshire Council) (2017), Shrewsbury North West
Relief Road: Local Model Validation Report, TR002, Woking, Surrey:
WSP, Dec. 2017, Draft, p. 77 
Route validation (SATURN & Google)

25. ◼ Source: Siemens (2014), Traffic Simulation with PTV Vissim, Munich:
Siemens AG (Infrastructure & Cities Sector), Sept. 2014, p. 8 
Verkehr in Städten Simulieren (VISSIM)

26. ◼ Source: Ernst & Young (2012), Borders Railway Final Business Case
Final Version, London: Ernst & Young (for Transport Scotland), Nov. 2012,
Publicly Available Version, p. 9 
Isochronal
maps (2)

27. Source: Paul
Pfaffenbichler,
Günter
Embergera &
Simon Shepherd
(2010), ‘A System
Dynamics
Approach to Land
Use Transport
Interaction
Modelling: The
Strategic Model
MARS and Its
Application’,
System Dynamics
Review, Vol. 26,
No. 3, July-Sept.
2010, p. 268 
Metropolitan Activity Relocation Simulator
(MARS)

28. Definition of value
◼ Source: APM (2006), APM Body of Knowledge, High
Wycombe: APM, 2006, 5th ed. (orig. 1992), p. 22

29. Study
type
Description GRIP
stage
Tools (examples)
VM1 Output
Definition
1 or 2 FAST diagram
Value tree
Assumptions analysis
Stakeholder analysis
SWOT analysis
VM2 Option
Selection
2 or 3 Criteria weighting technique
Multi-criteria analysis
VM3 Value
Engineering
4, 5 or 6 Opportunity log
Lean thinking
VM4 Lessons
Learned
Any Root cause analysis
Nominal dots
Problem statements
Value management in Network Rail

30. Source: Network Rail
(David Worsley)
FAST
(Harrogate
to York
LSI)

31. ◼ Source: Network Rail (2013), Clienting Guidelines: A Better Railway for a
Better Britain, London: Network Rail, 1st July 2013, Version 1.0, p. 55
Definition and execution

32. Risk & Value teams

33. ◼ Source: Transport for the North (2016), The Northern Transport Strategy:
Spring 2016 Report, Manchester: TfN, March 2016, p. 25 
Aspirational outputs (TfN)

34. Source:
Transport for
the North
(2019),
Strategic
Transport
Plan,
Manchester:
TfN, Feb.
2019, p. 113 
Transpennine
Route
Upgrade &
Northern
Powerhouse
Rail

35. Source:
National
Rail
(2013),
National
Rail
Timetable
Map 2013,
London:
Network
Rail,
August
2013, p. 1

Central trans-Pennine corridor

36. ◼ Source: Transport for the North (2018), Long Term Rail Strategy, Leeds:
TfN, January 2018, draft update, p. 53 
Central trans-Pennine journey times