Responsible research and innovation in a rapidly changing and increasingly telecoupled world. By Barron Joseph Orr

RRI Tools Final Conference, 21-22 November 2016, Brussels
Plenary Session: Facing the societal challenges of our time
Responsible research and innovation in a rapidly
changing and increasingly telecoupled world
Barron Joseph Orr
University of Alicante & University of Arizona

|
Acknowledgements
Michael Cherlet
EC Joint Research Center
Charles F. Hutchinson
Unviersity of Arizona
James F. Reynolds
Duke University
Facing the societal challenges of our time

|
Acknowledgements
Ramón Vallejo
Universitat de Barcelona
Susana Bautista
Universidad de Alicante
AND
Supported by the Marie Skłodowska-Curie
Actions programme of the European Union
Tools for Participatory Science wiki: http://s4s.wikidot.com/

|
Acknowledgements
United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD)
Science-Policy Interface (SPI) http://tinyurl.com/UNCCD-SPI

|
Key messages
• Stationarity is dead
• The world is not only globalized, it is telecoupled
• Those traditionally under-represented in science pay the price
• Responsible research and innovation can make a difference

|
1st Key Message: Stationarity is dead
Ideally environmental research is translated into better
management practices and policy decisions.
A large percentage of environmental research has been based on
assessments of the past to predict the future. This has been a very
powerful and largely successful approach.
Under conditions of change, what are the ramifications of this with
respect to responsible research and innovation?

| Facing the societal challenges of our time
Source:P.C.D.MillyandK.A.Dunne.2009.USGS
P.C.D.Millyetal.2008.Science
Is this approach still valid today?
We can predict how much water from rain may “run off”
(into streams) by statistically assessing past rainfall trends

|
Stationarity is dead
Where we once managed water (and many other
environmental factors) on the basis of the "100
year flood", now we must manage for change
Source:P.C.D.MillyandK.A.Dunne.2009.USGS
P.C.D.Millyetal.2008.Science
Projected Percentage Changes in Runoff, 21st Century

|
2nd Key Message: The world is not only globalized, it is
telecoupled
• Interactions between distant places are increasingly
widespread and influential, often leading to unexpected
outcomes with profound implications for sustainability.
• Most research is conducted within a place with little
attention to the impacts of distant interactions on
sustainability in multiple places.
• When distant forces are studied, they are usually treated
as exogenous variables; feedbacks are rarely considered.
Source: Jianguo Lui et al. 2013 Ecology and Society

|
Telecoupling is an umbrella concept that refers to socioeconomic
and environmental interactions over distances.
Key definitions
Source: Source: Jianguo Lui et al. 2013 Ecology and Society

Dryland systems – an aridity gradient

Source:JamesReynoldsetal.InPress&FengandFu2012Atmos.Chem.Phys
← increasing aridity increasing wetness →
55% become drier
14% become wetter
71% become drier
18% become wetter
72% become drier
18% become wetter
By mapping cities larger than 300,000 against aridity trends,
it becomes clear that many of them get drier, impacting 70% of the world’s urban population.
The world is getting drier including where many people live

|
Groundwater storage changes between 2005 and 2009 (in cm/year equivalent water height) were
estimated by subtracting water storage changes in soil, snow and surface reservoirs (obtained via the
WaterGAP Global Hydrology Model (WGHM)) from the GRACE satellite-observed terrestrial water
storage changes (TWS).
Ground water declines are significant (2005 – 2009)
Source: Jianli Chen et al. 2015 Surveys in Geophysics

Thresholds of use/misuse – sustainability/desertification
So, what should our “study area” be?

Photo: Associated Press/Christophe Ena
Source: Werrell & Femia 2013
The Arab Spring and Climate Change
What do
a) eastern China,
b) the Arab Spring, and
c) climate change
have to do with one another?
Map: Sternberg 2012 Applied Geography

|
Distant interactions as telecouplings
Trade of goods and
products, e.g., food,
timber, medicine, minerals
Development investment,
e.g., foreign direct
investment
Transnational land tenure
transfer
Conservation investment Technology transfer Knowledge transfer
Human migration Tourism Waste transfer
Species invasion Animal migration Water transfer
Species dispersal Atmospheric circulation Etc.

|
Are developed countries actually using natural
resources at a slower rate than economic growth?
• The currently used metrics (e.g. domestic material consumption
DMC) suggest YES.
• The material footprint (MF), a consumption-based indicator of
resource use suggests NO.
• The difference? Countries’ use of nondomestic resources is, on
average, is three times larger than the physical quantity of traded
goods.
• As wealth grows, countries tend to reduce their domestic portion
of materials extraction through international trade, whereas the
overall mass of material consumption generally increases.
Source: Thomas Wiedmann et al. 2015 PNAS

|
Increasing resource productivity and decoupling are indicated by material indicator lines running
below the blue line (GDP)(i.e., when the MF or DMC has grown slower than the GDP).
Relative changes in total resource use (MF and DMC) and GDP
MF = Material footprint DMC = domestic material consumption GDP is expressed in purchasing power parity (PPP-2005)
While the more mature economies have grown (1990–2008) while keeping domestic material
consumption (DMC) at bay, their material footprint (MF) kept pace with Gross Domestic Produce (GDP)
(due primarily to a dependency on construction materials).

|
Example 1: Local consumption to global land use
• Globalization increases the interconnectedness of people
and places around the world.
• Developed countries consumption puts pressure not only
on their domestic land resources, but also displaces land
in other countries, thus displacing other uses.
• For example, 33% of total U.S. land use for consumption
purposes is displaced from other countries.
• This ratio becomes much larger for the EU (more than
50%) and Japan (92%).
Source: Yang Yu et al. 2013 Global Environmental Change

|
Domestic land consumption = land used within a country's territory
Foreign land consumption = land used outside a country's territory
Pie size = total area of a country's globally ‘consumed’ land
Background colors = net importers (red) and exporters (blue) of land
How much countries rely on land outside of their
borders for their consumption

|
The thickness of the arrows and numbers next to the arrows represent the amount
of land (in Mha) used as inputs for the production of imported and exported goods.
Total land displaced through export production

|
Forestland displaced through export production

|
Cropland displaced through export production

|
Grazing land displaced through export production

|
Balance and flows of virtual water related to trade of agricultural and industrial products
during 1996–2005. Net exporters (sending systems) are in green, and net importers (receiving
systems) are in red. Arrows indicate the relative sizes of large gross virtual water flows.
Example 2: Virtual water related to trade of
agricultural and industrial products
Source: Jianguo Lui et al. 2015 Science

|
Meeting the 2001 US ethanol mandate reduced use of petroleum but required additional
corn area, reducing area for other crops, raising world prices, leading to land conversion
elsewhere and even higher CO2 emissions.
Example 3: U.S. biofuel and CO2 emissions (Mt)

|
Australia is a sending system (in blue), the main receiving systems are in green (destinations
of the coal are Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, India, the European Union, and Brazil),
The spillover systems are in light red (all other countries and regions are affected by CO2
emissions from using the coal produced in Australia and consumed in the receiving systems).
Example 4: Australian coal and CO2 emissions (Mt) (2004)

|
3rd Key Message: Those traditionally under-represented in science
pay the price
1. Impacts of land degradation and climate change tend to be higher
in developing countries (aridity) and in poor areas of developed
countries (marginal neighborhoods, favelas, flooding areas)
2. Lower perception of the problem. Consider the lower participation
of scientists from developing countries in the IPCC scientific
committees (28 % North America, 34% Europe, 8% Africa).
3. The international sensitivity to impacts and, as a consequence, the
international response, is lower for developing countries. The
impacts on developed countries tend to have more subsequent
repercussions.

|
3rd Key Message: Those traditionally under-represented in science
pay the price
4. The self-valuation of the risks of land degradation and climate
change is lower in developing countries. People facing poverty and
violence are less in the position to think about medium/long term
risks. This contributes to a lower perception of the problem.
5. The economic, technical and social (human capital) capacity for
adaptation, mitigation and restoration is lower in developing
countries.

|
4th Key Message: Responsible research and innovation can make a
difference
Responsible research and innovation is vital because the
engagement principle can not only help remedy these
inequalities, but can also make the science more relevant and
effective in addressing these grand human-environmental
challenges.
And example:

|
“A state whereby the
amount and quality of land
resources necessary to
support ecosystem
functions and services and
enhance food security
remain stable or increase
within specified temporal
and spatial scales and
ecosystems”
Land Degradation
Neutrality (LDN)

The LDN Scientific Conceptual Framework comes in the form
of a detailed technical report and a science-policy brief
http://tinyurl.com/LDNframework

|
Land Degradation Neutrality (LDN)
• The LDN definition was produced by an inter-governmental working
group (a political body that included scientists from all regions).
• The Scientific Conceptual Framework for LDN was developed by the
UNCCD “Science-Policy Interface”.
• The SPI worked hand-in-hand with the UNCCD Global Mechanism
who has been responsible for training countries in LDN target
setting. In this way the scientific process was informed by
stakeholders trying to put the scientific framework into practice and
visa versa.
10 independent scientists selected globally
5 independent scientists selected regionally
5 scientist delegates (the direct link to policy)
United Nations Convention
to Combat Desertification

The LDN Target Setting process has demonstrated how important
these engagement and knowledge co-creation has been: Though
LDN is voluntary, over 100 countries have already started

|
Responsible research and innovation and LDN
• RRI principles were core to how the SPI was created.
• RRI approaches were central to how the Scientific Conceptual
Framework for LDN was developed.
• RRI approaches are embedded in the guiding principles of the LDN
Conceptual Framework (e.g., focus on creating an enabling
environment, emphasis on partnerships, multi-stakeholder
platforms, gender assessment, embrace of open data encouraging
the harmonization of indicators/metrics/methodologies,
participatory assessment and monitoring, transparency land
administration systems, embrace of the Voluntary Guidelines on the
Responsible Governance of Tenure (VGGTs).
United Nations Convention
to Combat Desertification

|
Thank you!

|
Some backup slides just in case!

|
Ramifications of considering a telecoupled world in
research and innovation
• Viewing distant interactions as telecouplings can help
identify knowledge gaps and promote sustainability
research and governance.
• A telecoupling framework adds a focus on biophysical
feedbacks influencing the flows that move beyond the
local systems.
• Integrating both local couplings and telecouplings into
decision making can enhance adaptive capacity.
• The telecoupling framework can also lead to new
analytical approaches and improve existing approaches.

|
Ramifications of considering a telecoupled world in
research and innovation
• Often unforeseen challenges arise when the institutions and
mechanisms of governance acting over one system do not
account for the consequences and interactions involving the
more distant system.
• The outcomes or results of telecoupled interactions are often
indirect or emergent because different systems are governed
independently of each other.
• The rising influence of information technology and social
networks have made it possible for actors to “skip scale” and
interact, influence and create outcomes in telecoupled systems.
Sources: Eakin et al. 2014; Fris et al. 2016; Eakin et al. In Press

|
A global map of field size reveals how varied these are. Government policies can
make agriculture both productive and sustainable for the predominant field size in
a country, but telecoupling must also be fully considered for those policies
to be successful.
Croplands, field size and policy
Source: Steffen Fritz et al. 2015 Global Change Biology

|
Cropland percentage map calibrated with national and subnational cropland
statistics from FAO and IFPRI.
Croplands, field size and policy
Source: Steffen Fritz et al. 2015 Global Change Biology

|
Are developed countries actually using natural
resources at a slower rate than economic growth?
• Economy-wide material flow accounting metrics (e.g. resource
productivity, domestic material consumption) suggest YES.
• However recent analysis of the material footprint (MF), a
consumption-based indicator of resource use suggests NO.
• The difference? Countries’ use of nondomestic resources is, on
average, is three times larger than the physical quantity of traded
goods.
• As wealth grows, countries tend to reduce their domestic portion
of materials extraction through international trade, whereas the
overall mass of material consumption generally increases.

Population Pressure Resource Well-being
Well-being
Desertification Poverty Violence
Economic
viability
Environmental
Security
Resource
sustainability
(a)
Resource
(b) (c)
Conflict
(d)
Pressure
Thresholds of use/misuse – sustainability/desertification
Source: Uriel Safriel,
Hebrew University
So, what should our “study area” be?

Responsible research and innovation in a rapidly changing and increasingly telecoupled world. By Barron Joseph Orr

Recommended

Recommended

More Related Content

What's hot

What's hot (17)

Viewers also liked

Viewers also liked (16)

Similar to Responsible research and innovation in a rapidly changing and increasingly telecoupled world. By Barron Joseph Orr

Similar to Responsible research and innovation in a rapidly changing and increasingly telecoupled world. By Barron Joseph Orr (20)

More from RRI Tools

More from RRI Tools (20)

Recently uploaded

Recently uploaded (20)

Responsible research and innovation in a rapidly changing and increasingly telecoupled world. By Barron Joseph Orr

Editor's Notes