This document summarizes research aimed at improving biosecurity decision making for plant pathogens through surveillance modeling. The researchers are developing models and protocols to optimize quarantine zone setting, eradication strategies, and incursion responses. Models of Panama Tropical Race 4 spread and Queensland fruit fly population genetics inform decision processes. The research will deliver publications, conferences, software, and training to benefit state governments, surveillance providers, and horticultural industries through smarter pest detection and control.

1. biosecurity built on science
Quarantine and surveillance modelling
for horticulture biosecurity threats
Peter Baxtera & Grant Hamiltonb
[a] Postdoctoral research fellow & [b] Senior lecturer in ecology – biosecurity
Queensland University of Technology
Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research Centre

2. biosecurity built on science
What is the problem?
 Incursion detection
- rapid decisions about how to respond
- quarantine zones, surveillance
 Decisions in the face of uncertainty
- initially with limited data
- how to obtain new data
- how to adapt our response to emerging data
- when to declare a result
Briefly summarize the specific problem or issue that your research is addressing?

3. biosecurity built on science
What are we doing about it?
How will your research address the problem or issue?
Decision making for eradication and quarantine
 create applied methods that support decision makers
- surveillance, setting quarantine zones, eradications
 methods, protocols and software
- improve quarantine limits
- optimise eradication strategies
- grow capacity to make scientifically robust decisions
 gather data from incursions to inform models

4. biosecurity built on science
What are we doing about it?
Panama
Model for Panama Tropical Race 4
 pathogen spread and control
- risk networks: socio-economic, environmental, storms
 insights into successful incursion responses
- don’t over-focus around known infected sites
Baxter, Parnell & Hamilton (2015). MODSIM2015: 1261-1267.
Quarantine and surveillance strategies for plant pathogen detection and control.
 useful rules and tools
- heat-maps of priority sites; smarter strategies overall
infectionintensity
Basis for surveillance
weeks weeks
proximity E[risk]

5. biosecurity built on science
What are we doing about it?
UAV
Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveillance
 how do flight-plans perform faced with
- detection errors
- organism’s spatial ecology
 best speed/height to detect single occurrence, impact?
Best performing UAV flight plans
underlyingdetectionerror
aggregation
Infestationintensity
Baxter & Hamilton (2015). MODSIM2015: 1393-1398
Fine-tuning of unmanned aerial surveillance for ecological systems.
high
+fast

6. biosecurity built on science
What are we doing about it?
Q-fly and Canker
 Queensland fruit-fly:
- led by Susan Fuller (QUT), Bernie Dominiak (NSW-DPI)
- population genetic structure around Fruit Fly Exclusion Zone
- does a detection mean establishment or merely incidental?
 Citrus canker:
- initial workshop  key points for decision process
- how can we improve on eradication decisions?

7. biosecurity built on science
 Scientific communication
- publications; conferences; plain-English summaries
 Software development
- and train the trainers
How will this research be delivered?
0 1
priority
Detections
Surveillance:
Free movement
Less movement
Zero movement

8. biosecurity built on science
Who will benefit from this research?
End users
 state government
- smart, dynamic decisions throughout response
 surveillance providers (governmental or commercial)
Beneficiaries
 state governments and Australia
- pest free declarations etc.
 horticultural growers/industry
- bananas, citrus, many more

9. biosecurity built on science
Benefit for our horticultural industries
Improvements in:
 knowledge:
- smart decisions
 production and productivity:
- better pest detection response and control
 capacity and skills:
- better equipped responders and decision makers
 biosecurity operations and market access:
- quarantine zones tailored to risk
- confident about containment, eradication and area freedom

10. biosecurity built on science
End-User Advocate’s Perspective
“This project will create models and processes to assist with surveillance, decision
making for quarantine zones and eradication strategies.
Uncertainty is symptomatic of many biosecurity responses, and its treatment and
depiction in these model outputs could prove useful as a guide to future similar
incursions.
The model framework will be adaptable to diverse future incursions … providing insights
into how decisions are made during the response, [and] … leading to outputs and tools
that can actually be used to change future incursion responses.
Other aspects of the project … will have implications for the maintenance or restoration
of Area Freedom [and] provide insight into strategies of hierarchical surveillance.
- Mike Ashton, QDAF, End-User Advocate PBCRC-2100

11. biosecurity built on science
Future directions and opportunities
 Role of social connections
- how to get good data
- updating with tracing information
- compliance, cooperation and ethics
 Transition model results to real tools and actions
 Legacy/continuity
- ongoing expertise to run and use models

12. biosecurity built on science
Thank you
 For more information, please email:
- g.hamilton @qut.edu.au
- p3.baxter @qut.edu.au
PBCRC is established and supported under
the Australian Government Cooperative
Research Centres Programme
Project team:
 Bernie Dominiak (NSW)
 Ceri Pearce (Qld)
 John Weiss (Vic)
 Rune Rasmussen (QUT)
 Susan Fuller (QUT)