Pathways & Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact Species

1. SESSION 1: STRENGTHENING BORDER BIOSECURITY
Plant pest impacts:
a common set of metrics
Kylie Ireland

2. biosecurity built on science
Plant pest impacts:
a common set of metrics
Kylie Ireland
Postdoctoral Fellow
Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research Centre

3. Pierce’s disease
Sudden Oak Death
Asian Gypsy Moth
Huanglongbing
Texas root rot
Oriental Fruit Fly
Plum curculio
False codling moth
Peach X disease
Brown rot
Verticillium wilt
Asian citrus psyllid
Vegetable leaf miner
European canker
Guava rust (exotic strain)
Cotton aphid
Tomato leaf miner
Tarnished plant bug
Apple maggot
Blackline
Tomato ringspot virusJapanese beetle
Brown marmorated stink bug

4. biosecurity built on science
Predicting High Impact Pests
 What is most likely THE next big pest?
 Identify priority pathways & pest traits
 Support effective resource allocation
Pathways & Risk Assessment Framework for High-Impact
Species (PRAFHIS)
High Impact?

5. biosecurity built on science
What is Impact?
# ?
% ?
Proportion?
Ratio ?
Impacts / Consequences / Effects
Small -> Medium -> Large
Minor -> Major (5%) -> Massive
Low -> Moderate -> High
Important
Severe
Serious
Extreme
Nationally Significant / National Interest

6. biosecurity built on science
 Plant-production specific
- Socio-economic, trade & market driven
 Measurable metrics
 Independent of biological/pathway characteristics
 Cross taxa
- Pathogens & Insects +…
 Spatio-temporal variability
- Past, current & potential
 Alien & native
A common set of metrics

7. biosecurity built on science
 Flexible – in development & application
 Transparent
 Harmonising
 Easy to use
 Integration with new & existing tools
- ACERA – Prioritising Plant Pests
- DAWR – Risk-Return Resource Allocation (RRRA) model
- ABARES – NEBRA classification
End-user needs

8. biosecurity built on science
Plant protection
 Economic assessment parameters
- Cook et al.
 Risk assessment guidance
- IPPC, EPPO, DAWR, MPI….
 Policy practitioner discussions
- AU & NZ
 Score amalgamation
- Holt et al.
Integrating academic advances
Environmental Impact
 Blackburn et al. 2014
A unified classification of alien species based on
the magnitude of their environmental impacts
 Hawkins et al. 2015
Framework and guidelines for implementing the
proposed IUCN Environmental Impact
Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT)
 Class. Framework
 Uncertainty
 Score amalgamation

9. biosecurity built on science
20 Metrics – 18 “Measurable”
Primary response
Investment
Yield loss
Success
Mid to long term response
Economic injury level
Control costs
Yield reduction
*Feas. of Management
Cultivar loss
Cultivar recovery
Spatio-temporal
Distribution
Maximum area affected
Frequency
*Reversibility
Market-driven
*Host crop value
*Market access
Alternate market avai
Area freedom loss
Treatments
Price discount
Quality loss

10. biosecurity built on science
Metric
Min. Conc.
(MC = 0)
Minor
(MN = 1)
Moderate
(MO = 2)
Major
(MR = 3)
Massive
(MV = 4)
Market-driven
Host crop value (%
total plant industry)
≤ 0.01 % >0.01 - 0.1 % > 0.1 - 1 % > 1 – 10 % > 10 %
Market access
change (loss/change
of market share)
No change
Minor
< 5 %
Moderate
> 5 - 20 %
Major
> 20 - 50 %
All Major
> 50 %
e.g. Rhizoctonia sp. Karnal bunt, wheat,
AU/NZ *potential
Fruit flies, hort, AU/NZ
“Disruptor” Metrics & Classes
0
0

11. biosecurity built on science
“Disruptor” Metrics & Classes
Metric
Min. Conc.
(MC = 0)
Minor
(MN = 1)
Moderate
(MO = 2)
Major
(MR = 3)
Massive
(MV = 4)
Spatio-temporal
Reversibility Temporary,
≤ 1 year
Temporary, > 1 - 5
years
Temporary, > 5 -
15 years
Ongoing - NO
excl. alt. cropping
Ongoing - YES
excl. alt. cropping
e.g. Citrus canker,
QLD, 2004-9
Foc TR4 (Panama),
banana, global
Bacterial wilt,
hort., global
Mid to long term management
Feasibility of
management
*readily avail. &
cost-effective
Not required Rarely requires
targeted control
Existing
approaches
adequate
Barriers to uptake
and adoption
Cannot using
existing
approaches
e.g. Rhizoctonia spp.,
multiple crops,
global
Fusarium head
blight, wheat, AU
Current rust
strains, wheat, AU
Med. Fly, hort.,
WA
Myrtle rust, hort
& forestry?, AU

12. biosecurity built on science
 SNAPSHOT!
 Pest event details:
- Pest identity
- Host(s)
- Location
- Time period
- Assessor(s)
- Notes
 Data deficient
 Not applicable
Data Sheet = TRANSPARENCY
Everett et al. 2011
Australasian Plant Dis. Notes (2011) 6:67–71
Event details HIGH (0.705; DD = 0.00; MEDIUM) ^
Pest: Kiwifruit canker; Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) (Bacteria) – Exotic
Host(s): Kiwifruit
Location: New Zealand
Time
period:
2010-2015
Assessor(s): Joy Tyson, David Logan, Lisa Jamieson – Plant and Food Research New Zealand
Notes: This assessment focuses on the primary response period
Metric Class* Decision notes Score
Disruptor 0.625
Crop value MR 245 M, 2-3% 3
Management MR 3
Market access MN Immediate loss of access to all countries for
Actinidia nursery stock from New Zealand.
Psa was already present in major growing regions
of Italy, France, China and Chile
1
Reversibility MR Impact ongoing 3
Spatiotemporal 0.938
Distribution MV 4
Max. area MV 4
Frequency MV 4
Reversibility MR Disruptor 3
Market-driven 0.458
Crop value MR Disruptor 3
Market access MO Disruptor 2
Alt. market MO ? Capture initial closing markets 2
Area freedom MV 4
Treatments MO More change needed initially? 2
Price discount MC 0
Quality loss MC 0
Primary response 0.917
Investment MV Containment measures. Destruction of heavily
infected vines.
Large investment in research.
4
Yield loss
MR
? Expect more loss as gold pushed out. Likely
higher than this in those first two years
3
Success
MV
MPI and the kiwifruit industry tried to contain Psa
to the incursion site/area (Te Puke); these
containment measures failed. Spread to all
growing regions by 2012
4
Mid to long-term management 0.750
EIL N/A -
Control costs
N/A
Removal of heavily infected vines. Large amounts
of copper applied.
-
Yield reduc. N/A -
Management MR Disruptor 3

13. biosecurity built on science
 Discrimination
- Spatial
- Temporal
- High/low impact
 Future work
- Further testing
 Spatio-temporal scales
 Expand taxa/systems
- e.g. weeds, animal prod.
- Scoring
 Weighting, decision making
- DCME (Liu & Cook)
 Conditional probabilities
 Thresholds….
Event details
Pest Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae., Psa (Bacteria)
Host(s)
Actinidia deliciosa, Green kiwifruit, less susceptible;
A. chinensis ‘Hort16A’, Gold kiwifruit, highly susceptible
Location North Island, New Zealand
Time period 2010-2012 2010-2015
Impact class (score) High (0.705) High (0.674)
Uncertainty (DD) 0.00 0.05
Confidence Medium Medium
Disruptor 0.625 0.625
Crop value 3 3
Management 3 3
Market access 1 1
Reversibility 3 3
Spatiotemporal 0.938 0.938
Distribution 4 4
Max. area 4 4
Frequency 4 4
*Reversibility 3 3
Market-driven 0.458 0.396
*Crop value 3 3
*Market access 2 1
Alt. market 2 1
Area freedom 4 4
Treatments 2 1
Price discount 0 0
Quality loss 0 0
Primary response 0.917 0.750
Investment 4 3
Yield loss 3 2
Success 4 4
Mid to long-term management 0.750 0.750
EIL N/A DD
Control costs N/A 2
Yield reduction N/A 4
*Management 3 3
Cv loss 3 3
Cv recovery 3 3
Validation?
Everett et al. 2011
Australasian Plant Dis. Notes (2011) 6:67–71

14. biosecurity built on science
What next….? Please, get involved!
Petra
Kuhne
rt
 Metric system
w’shops
- Validate & improve
 PRAFHIS
- Analysis of predictors
of high impact pests
- Risk assessment
framework
 End-users engage!

15. biosecurity built on science
For more information, or to join the PRAFHIS email list,
please email kylie.ireland@csiro.au
Please, get involved! End users….Engage!