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Corporate Commando
Chapter :7
Portfolio Management
Strategies
 Value and Growth
 Asset Allocation Strategies
Chapter:1
Investment Settings
 Measures of Return and
Risk
 Determinants of Required
Rate of Return
 Relationship Between Risk
and Return
Chapter :7
Portfolio Management Strategies
 Value vs. Growth Investing
 Integrated Allocation
Chapter:1
Investment Settings
 Measures of Return and Risk
 Determinants of Required Rate of Return
 Relationship Between Risk and Return
Chapter :7
Portfolio Management Strategies
Topic : Value vs. Growth Investing
Value vs. Growth Investing
It is now common for money management firms to define themselves as
“value stock managers” or “growth stock managers” when selling their
services to clients.
A growth investor focuses on the current and future economic “story” of a
company, with less regard to share valuation.
The value investor focuses on share price in anticipation of a market
correction and, possibly, improving company fundamentals.
The distinction between value and growth investing can be best appreciated
by considering the thought process of a representative manager for each
style.1 In previous chapter, we saw that the price/earnings ratio for any
company can be expressed as:
P/E Ratio=
𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑃𝑒𝑟 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒
𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 𝑃𝑒𝑟 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒
where the earnings per share (EPS) measure can be based on either current
or forecasted firm performance.
Value vs. Growth Investing
Value and growth managers will focus on different aspects of this equation when evaluating
stocks. Specifically, a growth-oriented investor will:
• Focus on the EPS component of the P/E ratio and its economic determinants;
• Look for companies that he or she expects to exhibit rapid EPS growth in the future; and
• Often implicitly assume that the P/E ratio will remain constant over the near term, meaning that
the stock price will rise as forecasted earnings growth is realized.
On the other hand, a value-oriented investor will:
• Focus on the price component of the P/E ratio as he or she must be convinced that the price
of the stock is “cheap” by some means of comparison;
• Not care a great deal about current earnings or the fundamental drivers of earnings growth;
and
• Often implicitly assume that the P/E ratio is below its natural level and that the market will soon
“correct” this situation by increasing the stock price with little or no change in earnings.
Chapter :7
Topic : Asset Allocation Strategies
Asset Allocation
Asset allocation is a basic decision that every investor
must make is how to distribute his or her investable
funds amongst the various asset classes available in
the marketplace, such as stocks, fixed income, cash
equivalents, real estate , etc.
The strategic allocation is the proportion of wealth the
investor decides to place in each of these asset
classes.
Asset Allocation Strategies
 Integrated asset allocation
The integrated asset allocation strategy separately examines
(1) Capital market conditions and
(2) The investor’s objectives and constraints.
 Strategic asset allocation
Strategic asset allocation is used to determine the long-term
policy asset weights in a portfolio. Typically, long-term average
asset returns, risk, and co-variances are used as estimates of
future capital market results.
Asset Allocation Strategies
 Tactical asset allocation
Unlike an investor’s strategic allocation, which is set with a long-term focus
and modified infrequently, tactical asset allocation frequently adjusts the asset
class mix in the portfolio to take advantage of changing market conditions.
With tactical asset allocation, these adjustments are driven solely by perceived
changes in the relative values of the various asset classes; the investor’s risk
tolerance and investment constraints are assumed to be constant over time
 Insured asset allocation
Insured asset allocation likewise results in continual adjustments in the
portfolio allocation, assuming that expected market returns and risks are
constant over time, while the investor’s objectives and constraints change as
his or her wealth position changes. For example, rising portfolio values
increase the investor’s wealth and consequently his or her ability to handle
risk, which means the investor can increase his or her exposure to risky
assets.
Chapter:1
Investment Settings
Topic : Measures of Return and Risk
Measures of Return and Risk
To properly evaluate any to investment, you must accurately compare their
historical rates of return. A proper measurements of the rates of return is the
purpose of this section.
HPR =
𝐸𝑁𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝐵𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
=
220
200
=1.10
Here,
HPY = HPR-1
=1.10-1
=10%
Annual HPR= 𝐻𝑃𝑅
1
𝑛
Annual HPY =HPR-1
Measures of Return and Risk
 In case of declining wealth value the computation as follows :
HPR =
𝐸𝑁𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝐵𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
And HPY =HPR - 1
 In case of multiple year loss over 2 years would be computed as follows:
HPR =
𝐸𝑁𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝐵𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
And HPY =HPR – 1
 In contrast, consider an investment of $100 held for only6 months that earned a return of
$12.
HPR =
𝐸𝑁𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
𝐵𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡
And HPY =HPR – 1
Measures of Return and Risk
Note that we made some implicit assumptions when converting the
six-month HPY to an annual basis. we assumed that the rate of
return earned during the first half of the year is likewise earned on
the value at the end of the first six months. The 12 percent rate of
return for the initial six months compounds to 25.44 percent for the
full year. Because of the uncertainty of being able to earn the same
return in the future six months, institutions will typically not compound
partial year results. Remember one final point: The ending value of
the investment can be the result of a positive or negative change in
price for the investment alone (for example, a stock going from $20 a
share to $22 a share), income from the investment alone, or a
combination of price change and income. Ending value includes the
value of everything related to the investment.
Measures of Return and Risk
 Computing mean historical returns.
Single Investment-
For an individual investment there are two summary measures of return
performance.
Arithmetic Mean
Geometric Mean
To find Arithmetic mean,
AM=
𝐻𝑃𝑌
𝑛
And alternative computation,
GM =[𝜋𝐻𝑃𝑅]
1
𝑛−1
Where ,
𝜋 = 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠:
(𝐻𝑃𝑅1) × (𝐻𝑃𝑅2)…………(𝐻𝑃𝑅 𝑛)
Measures of Return and Risk
Year Beginning
Value
Ending
Value
HPR HPY
1 100 115 1.15 0.15
2 115 138 1.20 0.20
3 138 110 0.80 -0.20
AM =?
GM =?
Measures of Return and Risk
Investors are typically concerned with long term
performance when comparing alternative investments.
GM is considered a superior measure of the long term
mean rate of return because it indicates the compound
annual rate of return based on the ending value of the
investment versus its beginning value. Although , the
Arithmetic Average provides a good indication of the
expected rate of return for an investment during a future
individual year , it is biased upward if you are attempting
to measure assets long term performance.
Measures of Return and Risk
Year Beginnin
g Value
Ending
Value
HPR HPY
1 50 100 2.00 1.00
2 100 50 0.50 -0.50
AM =?
GM =?
A portfolio of investments
The mean historical rate of return (HPY) for a portfolio
of investments is measured as the weighted average
of the HPY’s for the individual investment in the
portfolio, or the overall percentage in value of the
original portfolio.
Investment Number
of
Shares
Beginning
Price
Beginning
Market
Value
Ending
Price
Ending
Market
Value
HPR HPY Market
weighted
Weighted
HPY
A 100,000 10 $1,000,00
0
$12 $1,200,00
0
1.20 20% 0.05 0.01
B 200,000 20 4,000,000 21 4,200,000 1.05 5 0.20 0.01
C 500,000 30 15,000,00
0
33 16,500,00
0
1.10 10 0.75 0.075
Total $20,000,0
00
$21,900,0
00
0.095
Expected Rate of Return (ERR)
 The “Expected Return” on a financial investment is
the expected value of it’s return.
 The “Expected Rate of Return” is the expected
return per currency invested.
 Computing Expected Rate of Return (ERR)
ERR = ∑(Probability of Return)×(Possible Return)
Discussion with three situations
 Situation1
An investor is absolutely certain of a return of 5%.So
the probability of receiving the return is 1.
The ERR = (1×0.05)
=0.05 or 5%
 Situation2
An investor expects three types of return in three
economic conditions
Economic Conditions Probability Rate of Return
Strong Economy
Weak Economy
No Major Change in Economy
0.15
0.15
0.70
0.20
-0.20
0.10
–
The ERR = (0.15×0.20)+(0.15× -0.20)+(0.70×0.10)
=0.07
Discussion with three situations
 Situation3
An investor expects 10 possible outcomes ranging
from -40% to 50% , with the same probability of 0.10
for each rate of return.
ERR = (0.10× -0.40)+(0.10× -0.30)+(0.10× -
0.20)+(0.10× -
0.10)+(0.10×0.0)+(0.10×0.10)+(0.10×0.20)+(0.10×0.3
0)+(0.10×0.40)+(0.10×0.50)
=0.05or 5%
Computing The Risk of Expected Rates
of Return
 The Risk of ERR can be determined by – Variance, Standard
deviation and Coefficient of Variation.
Variance = ∑ Probability × (Possible Return-Expected Return)2
Standard Deviation = √[∑ Probability × (Possible Return-
Expected Return)2]
CV = Standard Deviation of Returns / Expected Rate of Return
The larger the variance for an expected rate of return, the greater the
dispersion of expected returns and the greater the uncertainty ,or
risk, of the investment.
Discussion with two situations
 Situation1
An investor is absolutely certain of a return of 5%.So
the probability of receiving the return is 1 and the
expected rate of return is also 5%.
Variance = 1.00(0.05-0.05)2
=1.00(0.00)
=0
Standard Deviation = √0=0
CV = 0/0.05=0
Discussion with two situations
 Situation2
An investor expects three types of return in three
economic conditions –
Economic Conditions Probability Rate of Return Expected rate of return
Strong Economy
Weak Economy
No Major Change in
Economy
0.15
0.15
0.70
0.20
-0.20
0.10
0.07
0.07
0.07
Discussion with two situations
Variance = [0.15(0.20 - 0.07)2]+[0.15(-0.20 – 0.07)2]+[0.70(0.10
– 0.07)2]
= 0.0141
Standard Deviation = √0.0141
= 0.1187 or 11.87%
CV = 0.1187 / 0.07
=1.696
Conclusion – When your investment is in a perfect certainty
than there is no variation, that means no risk.
But in situation 2 , you expect a return 7%,but the standard
deviation of your expectation is 11.87%
Chapter:1
Investment Settings
Topic : Determinants of Required
Rates of Return
Determinants of Required Rates of
Return
 There are three broad determinants of Required
Rates of Return and these are as follows:
 Time Value of Money
 Expected Rate of Inflation for a particular economy
 Involvement of Risk on Investment
Determinants of Required Rates of
Return
Time Value of Money
The present value of money
Future value of money
Expected Rate of Inflation (Decline in Purchasing Power of Money)
Higher the inflation, higher the required rates of return.
Involvement of Risk with Investment
You know, there is nothing where risk is not involved. And it is money we talk
about is more sensitive towards risk. Risk can vary from industry to industry,
company to company, person to person. But the common thing is higher the
risk higher the rates of return person expect from an investment. Although you
may find there is a variation of risk-taking behavior among the individuals
which is influenced by the personal trait of an individual. Risk can be broadly
categorized into two head; one is systematic and other is an unsystematic risk.
Determinants of Required Rates of
Return
Systematic Risk: Directly involved with the system
which arises from the macroeconomic factors and it is
not possible to minimize this type of risk through
diversification of investment.
Unsystematic Risk: Unsystematic is a type of risk
which is possible to minimize through diversification of
investment. With this risk, there is a correlation
between risk and diversification.
Determinants of Required Rates of
Return
Market change because of the following reasons
 A wide range of available investment alternatives
 Return on specific assets change dramatically
 Change in interest rate over the time period
It does not necessarily need to be the same required
rates of return for all the people. The rate will vary
according to the economic factors and the personal risk-
taking behavior of an individual. So it will be better for you
if you identify the influencing factors and then calculate
your required rates of return on investment.
Chapter:1
Investment Settings
Topic : Relationship Between Risk
and Return
Relationship Between Risk and Return
As a general rule, investments with high risk tend to
have high returns and vice versa. Another way to look
at it is that for a given level of return, it is human
nature to prefer less risk to more risk. Therefore, the
higher the risk of an investment, the higher its returns
have to be to attract investors.
Relationship Between Risk and Return
The existence of risk does not mean that you should not
invest – only that you should be aware that any
investment has some degree of risk which should be
considered when deciding whether the expected returns
of that investment are worth it. Therefore, when
considering the suitability of any investment, you must
understand both the likely returns and the risks involved.
The appropriate risk-return combination will depend on
your financial objectives. Some people prefer a low-risk,
steady income stream while others don’t mind taking on
more risk for the chance of making higher returns.
Relationship Between Risk and Return
 We can understand the expected relationship
between risk and return from the graph below
Relationship Between Risk and
Return
 It shows that investors increase their required rates of
return as perceived risk increases. The line that reflects
the combination of risk and return available on
alternative investments is referred to as the security
market line(SML).The SML reflects the risk return
combinations available for all risky assets in the capital
market at a given time. Investors would select
investments that are consistent with their risk
preferences; some would consider only low risk
investments, whereas others welcome high risk
investments.
Thank you Everyone

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Portfolio management strategies

  • 1. Corporate Commando Chapter :7 Portfolio Management Strategies  Value and Growth  Asset Allocation Strategies Chapter:1 Investment Settings  Measures of Return and Risk  Determinants of Required Rate of Return  Relationship Between Risk and Return
  • 2. Chapter :7 Portfolio Management Strategies  Value vs. Growth Investing  Integrated Allocation
  • 3. Chapter:1 Investment Settings  Measures of Return and Risk  Determinants of Required Rate of Return  Relationship Between Risk and Return
  • 4. Chapter :7 Portfolio Management Strategies Topic : Value vs. Growth Investing
  • 5. Value vs. Growth Investing It is now common for money management firms to define themselves as “value stock managers” or “growth stock managers” when selling their services to clients. A growth investor focuses on the current and future economic “story” of a company, with less regard to share valuation. The value investor focuses on share price in anticipation of a market correction and, possibly, improving company fundamentals. The distinction between value and growth investing can be best appreciated by considering the thought process of a representative manager for each style.1 In previous chapter, we saw that the price/earnings ratio for any company can be expressed as: P/E Ratio= 𝐶𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑃𝑒𝑟 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 𝐸𝑎𝑟𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔𝑠 𝑃𝑒𝑟 𝑆ℎ𝑎𝑟𝑒 where the earnings per share (EPS) measure can be based on either current or forecasted firm performance.
  • 6. Value vs. Growth Investing Value and growth managers will focus on different aspects of this equation when evaluating stocks. Specifically, a growth-oriented investor will: • Focus on the EPS component of the P/E ratio and its economic determinants; • Look for companies that he or she expects to exhibit rapid EPS growth in the future; and • Often implicitly assume that the P/E ratio will remain constant over the near term, meaning that the stock price will rise as forecasted earnings growth is realized. On the other hand, a value-oriented investor will: • Focus on the price component of the P/E ratio as he or she must be convinced that the price of the stock is “cheap” by some means of comparison; • Not care a great deal about current earnings or the fundamental drivers of earnings growth; and • Often implicitly assume that the P/E ratio is below its natural level and that the market will soon “correct” this situation by increasing the stock price with little or no change in earnings.
  • 7. Chapter :7 Topic : Asset Allocation Strategies
  • 8. Asset Allocation Asset allocation is a basic decision that every investor must make is how to distribute his or her investable funds amongst the various asset classes available in the marketplace, such as stocks, fixed income, cash equivalents, real estate , etc. The strategic allocation is the proportion of wealth the investor decides to place in each of these asset classes.
  • 9. Asset Allocation Strategies  Integrated asset allocation The integrated asset allocation strategy separately examines (1) Capital market conditions and (2) The investor’s objectives and constraints.  Strategic asset allocation Strategic asset allocation is used to determine the long-term policy asset weights in a portfolio. Typically, long-term average asset returns, risk, and co-variances are used as estimates of future capital market results.
  • 10. Asset Allocation Strategies  Tactical asset allocation Unlike an investor’s strategic allocation, which is set with a long-term focus and modified infrequently, tactical asset allocation frequently adjusts the asset class mix in the portfolio to take advantage of changing market conditions. With tactical asset allocation, these adjustments are driven solely by perceived changes in the relative values of the various asset classes; the investor’s risk tolerance and investment constraints are assumed to be constant over time  Insured asset allocation Insured asset allocation likewise results in continual adjustments in the portfolio allocation, assuming that expected market returns and risks are constant over time, while the investor’s objectives and constraints change as his or her wealth position changes. For example, rising portfolio values increase the investor’s wealth and consequently his or her ability to handle risk, which means the investor can increase his or her exposure to risky assets.
  • 11. Chapter:1 Investment Settings Topic : Measures of Return and Risk
  • 12. Measures of Return and Risk To properly evaluate any to investment, you must accurately compare their historical rates of return. A proper measurements of the rates of return is the purpose of this section. HPR = 𝐸𝑁𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐵𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 = 220 200 =1.10 Here, HPY = HPR-1 =1.10-1 =10% Annual HPR= 𝐻𝑃𝑅 1 𝑛 Annual HPY =HPR-1
  • 13. Measures of Return and Risk  In case of declining wealth value the computation as follows : HPR = 𝐸𝑁𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐵𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 And HPY =HPR - 1  In case of multiple year loss over 2 years would be computed as follows: HPR = 𝐸𝑁𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐵𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 And HPY =HPR – 1  In contrast, consider an investment of $100 held for only6 months that earned a return of $12. HPR = 𝐸𝑁𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝐵𝑒𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑣𝑎𝑙𝑢𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝐼𝑛𝑣𝑒𝑠𝑡𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 And HPY =HPR – 1
  • 14. Measures of Return and Risk Note that we made some implicit assumptions when converting the six-month HPY to an annual basis. we assumed that the rate of return earned during the first half of the year is likewise earned on the value at the end of the first six months. The 12 percent rate of return for the initial six months compounds to 25.44 percent for the full year. Because of the uncertainty of being able to earn the same return in the future six months, institutions will typically not compound partial year results. Remember one final point: The ending value of the investment can be the result of a positive or negative change in price for the investment alone (for example, a stock going from $20 a share to $22 a share), income from the investment alone, or a combination of price change and income. Ending value includes the value of everything related to the investment.
  • 15. Measures of Return and Risk  Computing mean historical returns. Single Investment- For an individual investment there are two summary measures of return performance. Arithmetic Mean Geometric Mean To find Arithmetic mean, AM= 𝐻𝑃𝑌 𝑛 And alternative computation, GM =[𝜋𝐻𝑃𝑅] 1 𝑛−1 Where , 𝜋 = 𝑇ℎ𝑒 𝑝𝑟𝑜𝑑𝑢𝑐𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑎𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 ℎ𝑜𝑙𝑑𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑 𝑟𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛𝑠 𝑎𝑠 𝑓𝑜𝑙𝑙𝑜𝑤𝑠: (𝐻𝑃𝑅1) × (𝐻𝑃𝑅2)…………(𝐻𝑃𝑅 𝑛)
  • 16. Measures of Return and Risk Year Beginning Value Ending Value HPR HPY 1 100 115 1.15 0.15 2 115 138 1.20 0.20 3 138 110 0.80 -0.20 AM =? GM =?
  • 17. Measures of Return and Risk Investors are typically concerned with long term performance when comparing alternative investments. GM is considered a superior measure of the long term mean rate of return because it indicates the compound annual rate of return based on the ending value of the investment versus its beginning value. Although , the Arithmetic Average provides a good indication of the expected rate of return for an investment during a future individual year , it is biased upward if you are attempting to measure assets long term performance.
  • 18. Measures of Return and Risk Year Beginnin g Value Ending Value HPR HPY 1 50 100 2.00 1.00 2 100 50 0.50 -0.50 AM =? GM =?
  • 19. A portfolio of investments The mean historical rate of return (HPY) for a portfolio of investments is measured as the weighted average of the HPY’s for the individual investment in the portfolio, or the overall percentage in value of the original portfolio. Investment Number of Shares Beginning Price Beginning Market Value Ending Price Ending Market Value HPR HPY Market weighted Weighted HPY A 100,000 10 $1,000,00 0 $12 $1,200,00 0 1.20 20% 0.05 0.01 B 200,000 20 4,000,000 21 4,200,000 1.05 5 0.20 0.01 C 500,000 30 15,000,00 0 33 16,500,00 0 1.10 10 0.75 0.075 Total $20,000,0 00 $21,900,0 00 0.095
  • 20. Expected Rate of Return (ERR)  The “Expected Return” on a financial investment is the expected value of it’s return.  The “Expected Rate of Return” is the expected return per currency invested.  Computing Expected Rate of Return (ERR) ERR = ∑(Probability of Return)×(Possible Return)
  • 21. Discussion with three situations  Situation1 An investor is absolutely certain of a return of 5%.So the probability of receiving the return is 1. The ERR = (1×0.05) =0.05 or 5%
  • 22.  Situation2 An investor expects three types of return in three economic conditions Economic Conditions Probability Rate of Return Strong Economy Weak Economy No Major Change in Economy 0.15 0.15 0.70 0.20 -0.20 0.10 – The ERR = (0.15×0.20)+(0.15× -0.20)+(0.70×0.10) =0.07
  • 23. Discussion with three situations  Situation3 An investor expects 10 possible outcomes ranging from -40% to 50% , with the same probability of 0.10 for each rate of return. ERR = (0.10× -0.40)+(0.10× -0.30)+(0.10× - 0.20)+(0.10× - 0.10)+(0.10×0.0)+(0.10×0.10)+(0.10×0.20)+(0.10×0.3 0)+(0.10×0.40)+(0.10×0.50) =0.05or 5%
  • 24. Computing The Risk of Expected Rates of Return  The Risk of ERR can be determined by – Variance, Standard deviation and Coefficient of Variation. Variance = ∑ Probability × (Possible Return-Expected Return)2 Standard Deviation = √[∑ Probability × (Possible Return- Expected Return)2] CV = Standard Deviation of Returns / Expected Rate of Return The larger the variance for an expected rate of return, the greater the dispersion of expected returns and the greater the uncertainty ,or risk, of the investment.
  • 25. Discussion with two situations  Situation1 An investor is absolutely certain of a return of 5%.So the probability of receiving the return is 1 and the expected rate of return is also 5%. Variance = 1.00(0.05-0.05)2 =1.00(0.00) =0 Standard Deviation = √0=0 CV = 0/0.05=0
  • 26. Discussion with two situations  Situation2 An investor expects three types of return in three economic conditions – Economic Conditions Probability Rate of Return Expected rate of return Strong Economy Weak Economy No Major Change in Economy 0.15 0.15 0.70 0.20 -0.20 0.10 0.07 0.07 0.07
  • 27. Discussion with two situations Variance = [0.15(0.20 - 0.07)2]+[0.15(-0.20 – 0.07)2]+[0.70(0.10 – 0.07)2] = 0.0141 Standard Deviation = √0.0141 = 0.1187 or 11.87% CV = 0.1187 / 0.07 =1.696 Conclusion – When your investment is in a perfect certainty than there is no variation, that means no risk. But in situation 2 , you expect a return 7%,but the standard deviation of your expectation is 11.87%
  • 28. Chapter:1 Investment Settings Topic : Determinants of Required Rates of Return
  • 29. Determinants of Required Rates of Return  There are three broad determinants of Required Rates of Return and these are as follows:  Time Value of Money  Expected Rate of Inflation for a particular economy  Involvement of Risk on Investment
  • 30. Determinants of Required Rates of Return Time Value of Money The present value of money Future value of money Expected Rate of Inflation (Decline in Purchasing Power of Money) Higher the inflation, higher the required rates of return. Involvement of Risk with Investment You know, there is nothing where risk is not involved. And it is money we talk about is more sensitive towards risk. Risk can vary from industry to industry, company to company, person to person. But the common thing is higher the risk higher the rates of return person expect from an investment. Although you may find there is a variation of risk-taking behavior among the individuals which is influenced by the personal trait of an individual. Risk can be broadly categorized into two head; one is systematic and other is an unsystematic risk.
  • 31. Determinants of Required Rates of Return Systematic Risk: Directly involved with the system which arises from the macroeconomic factors and it is not possible to minimize this type of risk through diversification of investment. Unsystematic Risk: Unsystematic is a type of risk which is possible to minimize through diversification of investment. With this risk, there is a correlation between risk and diversification.
  • 32. Determinants of Required Rates of Return Market change because of the following reasons  A wide range of available investment alternatives  Return on specific assets change dramatically  Change in interest rate over the time period It does not necessarily need to be the same required rates of return for all the people. The rate will vary according to the economic factors and the personal risk- taking behavior of an individual. So it will be better for you if you identify the influencing factors and then calculate your required rates of return on investment.
  • 33. Chapter:1 Investment Settings Topic : Relationship Between Risk and Return
  • 34. Relationship Between Risk and Return As a general rule, investments with high risk tend to have high returns and vice versa. Another way to look at it is that for a given level of return, it is human nature to prefer less risk to more risk. Therefore, the higher the risk of an investment, the higher its returns have to be to attract investors.
  • 35. Relationship Between Risk and Return The existence of risk does not mean that you should not invest – only that you should be aware that any investment has some degree of risk which should be considered when deciding whether the expected returns of that investment are worth it. Therefore, when considering the suitability of any investment, you must understand both the likely returns and the risks involved. The appropriate risk-return combination will depend on your financial objectives. Some people prefer a low-risk, steady income stream while others don’t mind taking on more risk for the chance of making higher returns.
  • 36. Relationship Between Risk and Return  We can understand the expected relationship between risk and return from the graph below
  • 37. Relationship Between Risk and Return  It shows that investors increase their required rates of return as perceived risk increases. The line that reflects the combination of risk and return available on alternative investments is referred to as the security market line(SML).The SML reflects the risk return combinations available for all risky assets in the capital market at a given time. Investors would select investments that are consistent with their risk preferences; some would consider only low risk investments, whereas others welcome high risk investments.