HYVE autonomous driving report

Autonomous Driving
The User Perspective
Application of Innovation Mining on the Topic of Self Driving Cars
October 2015 – © HYVE Science Labs

2Autonomous Driving – The User Perspective
PREFACE
Dr. Michael Bartl
HYVE Science Labs (CEO HYVE)
Juan Rosenzweig
HYVE Science Labs
HYVE Science Labs
Institute of
Innovation Marketing
Scientific Partner
Technology Partner
Autonomous Driving has been said to be the next big disruptive innovation in
the years to come. Although considered as being predominantly technology
driven, it is supposed to have massive societal impact beyond the automotive
industry in fields such as mobility, transportation, insurance, logistics, law and
regulations. Additionally to the enormous environmental and economic effect
it has the promise of saving millions of lives worldwide.
The HYVE Science Labs in cooperation with the Technical University Hamburg-
Harburg (Institute of Innovation Marketing) and INSIUS focused on exploring the
customer view and acceptance of Autonomous Driving. Therefore we analyzed
Social Media Content in a unique international study.
Overall 106.305 posts in English language were collected and filtered through the
search for key strings and popular terms referring to Autonomous Driving.
Enjoy reading the study!

1 Introduction
2 The Method of Innovation Mining
3 Results
4 Contact
TABLE OF CONTENT

1 INTRODUCTION

INTRODUCTION
Right now Autonomous Driving (AD) is positioned at the peak
of the Hype Cycle (see figure p.6). It is noteworthy that there is
a huge gap between technological progress and end consumer
acceptance which makes self-driving cars a showcase for a tech-
nology push innovation. While scientific research is focusing on
the topic from an engineering and ICT perspective the research
community agrees that customer acceptance will be the main
driver of this new technology.
For this reason, it is important to understand what are the wants
and needs of future users and who will be the early adopters.
They will influence how technologies evolve and if they provide
enough benefits to reach the early majority.
In order to understand the customer voice, this study analyses
106.305 posts generated by users throughout the internet deno-
minated as User Generated Content (UGC). Making it the big-
gest study of its kind worldwide on Autonomous Driving .
UGC is characterized by extensive volunteering effort, lack of
central control and freedom of expression, while creating a ba-
sis for identifying and understanding opinions, desires, tastes,
needs and decision-making influences of customers in a passi-
ve non-intrusive manner. UGC is perceived as being impartial
and unbiased, while giving the chance to understand needs and
doubts of the potential customers, as well as the used language
within a certain topic.
THIS STUDY COMPRISES
106.305
POSTS ON AD
THROUGHOUT THE
INTERNET

AUTONOMOUS DRIVING
HYPE CYCLE
AUTONOMOUS DRIVING
ADOPTION CURVE
THE INNOVATION PATH OF AUTONOMOUS DRIVING
NumberofAdopters
Visibility&Expectations
Technology
Trigger
(more than
10 years)
Source: Adapted figure based on Gartner‘s Hype Cycle (Gartner, August 2015) and Rogers Diffusion Curve.
Enthusiasm
(5-10 years)
Disillusion
(2-5 years)
Stable &
Evolving
(less than
2 years)
2,5% 13,5% 16%
t
34% 34%
Early
Adopters
(visionaries)
Early
Majority
(pragmatists)
Late
Majority
(conservatives)
Laggards
(sceptics)
Innovators
INTERNET OF THINGS
3D PRINTING
BIG DATA
AUGMENTED
REALITY
THE „CHASM“
CLOUD
COMPUTING
AUTONOMOUS
DRIVING TODAY

2 THE METHOD OF
INNOVATION MINING

THE METHOD OF INNOVATION MINING
In innovation mining technology names, raw
materials, physical and chemical attributes,
cause & and effect chains etc. are the point of
origin for the search strategy.
For AD the search process was initiated
by using terms such as:
”autonomous vehicle“; ”autonomous ve-
hicles“; ”self driving car“; ”self driving cars“;
”driverless car“; ”driverless cars“;
”autonomous driving“; ”automated driving“;
”piloted driving“...
The terms were refined along the search process.
The Data Gathering process is based on the
INSIUS data gathering technology, which led to
471.000 text results (May 2015).
The Data Analysis includes the removal of edi-
torial content published by editors of news, ad-
vertisement, etc. Machine learning techniques
were applied to sort and select User Generated
Content only. 106.305 results were classified as
UGC with a Precision of 99,5% (also called posi-
tive predicted value), and a Recall of 91,5% (also
known as sensitivity).
SOCIAL MEDIA CONTENT SEARCH STRATEGY DATA ANALYSISDATA GATHERING VISUALISATION AND INTERPRETATION
A variety of visualization techniques, such as
Tag Clouds, Network Representations, Word
Frequency Distributions, Pie Charts, Bar Charts,
Line graphs, Data Series Plots, Bubble Charts,
etc., are applied to understand and dive into the
gathered data.

3 RESULTS

HOW DO USERS REFER TO AUTONOMOUS DRIVING?
One of the most important tools to analyze the 106.305
gathered results are phrase frequency distributions,
which help to understand how often a word or a phrase
is mentioned within the data.
This proves helpful to recognize how the users refer to
the topic and which concepts are more often used. Our
research demonstrates that the most common term used
by users is “Driverless Car” with 43,5% of the AD-related
mentions followed by “Self Driving Car” with 34,4% of
the mentions.
The more formal “Autonomous Vehicle” is not that
widespreadly used with 10.2% of the mentions followed
by “Autonomous Driving” with 9.6% of the mentions.
AUTONOMOUS
VEHICLE
5.242
SELF DRIVING CAR
17.720
DRIVERLESS CAR
22.383
AUTONOMOUS
DRIVING
4.944
PILOTED DRIVING
389
DRIVERLESS VEHICLE
798
N= 51.476

WHERE DO USERS TALK ABOUT AUTONOMOUS DRIVING?
The vast majority of quotes are distributed in many
diverse sources. A high volume of discussion regarding
AD takes place in Reddit.com which is the most impact-
ful single source on the topic with around 10% of the
total discussion. Ten times more customer quotes than
the second place UGC source quora.com with nearly
1%, followed by arstechnica.com, with similar impact in
the topic as ask.fm.
Reddit is a leading Social-News-Aggregator in the internet.
Arstechnica is a technology, news and information web-
site that publishes news, reviews, and guides where the
writers are mainly postgraduates and research institu-
tions workers. Both belong to the Advance Publications
Media Group. They are both considered as technology
focused media where early adopters and most knowledge-
able users of technology can be found while also being
regarded as top technology discussion sites.
Quora on the other hand is a Question-and-answer
website where questions are asked, answered, edited
and organized by its community of users. Recently
valued with nearly 1 billion dollars, it is among the top
200 websites globally.
MISCELLANEOUS
83,5%
0,75
TECH.SLASHDOT.ORG
0,57
CITY-DATA.COM
0,98
QUORA.COM
0,57
LINKEDIN.COM
0,76
NEWS.YCOMBINATOR.COM
0,94
ARSTECHNICA.COM
0,93
ASK.FM
REDDIT.COM
9,5%

HOW THE CONSUMER CONVERSATION EVOLVED OVER TIME?
Analyzing internet sources since 2010, after the official Google
driverless-car debut, an exponential increase in the volume of
discussion can be observed, doubling the amount of comments
found every year. In a more detailed monthly view, two peaks,
the first in May 2014 and the second in March 2015, can be
found. Relating this high UGC volume to the main sources, the
most impactful singles dicussions can be identified.
The highest volume in customer discussion can be observed in
March 2015 with 6.489 posts (see figure p.13). Triggered partly
by the news of Elon Musk´s the CEO of Tesla Motors comment,
stating that non self-driving cars would someday be outlawed.
Also in this month the most impactful discussion found is when
Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault and Nissan opens a forum of
open questions regarding the topic and promotes it through
Twitter.
The second month with the highest volume of discussion is May
2014 with 4974 posts when Google revealed its prototype Google
Car for the first time. Another impactful discussion in that
month includes an article from a reporter that “took a ride in
Google‘s self-driving car” and was debated in Reddit.
THE VOLUME OF THE
AUTONOMOUS DRIVING
DISCUSSION
DOUBLES EVERY YEAR
SINCE 2010
x2
mentions
2010 2015

HOW THE CONSUMER CONVERSATION
EVOLVED OVER TIME?
1.82 2.76 1.88 2.17
GROWTH FACTOR
ELON MUSK BELIEVES NON-SELF-DRIVING CARS
MAY ONE DAY BE OUTLAWED
IS IT SAFER FOR A „TWO-TON DEATH MACHINE“
TO BE DRIVEN BY A COMPUTER OR A HUMAN?
by Sebastian Anthony, Mar 18, 2015
mentions
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
JAN JAN
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JAN JANAPR APR APR APR APR APR APR APR APRJUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JUL JULOCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT OCT
GOOGLE’S PROTOTYPE ELECTRIC SELF-DRIVING
CAR SEATS TWO, HAS NO STEERING WHEEL
NO ACCELERATOR OR BRAKE PEDALS, EITHER;
SELF-DRIVING IS FULLY REALIZED.
by Casey Johnston, May 28, 2014
2007
6489
POSTS
4974
POSTS
REDDIT
I‘M THE CEO OF RENAULT AND NISSAN AND WE‘RE MAKING
AUTONOMOUS DRIVING VEHICLES HAPPEN BY 2020. ASK ME
ANYTHING! by CarlosGhosn, 7 months ago
REDDIT
I TOOK A RIDE IN GOOGLE‘S SELF-DRIVING CAR
– AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES ARE READY FOR THE CITY.
by RushandAPush, 1 year ago

WHAT ARE THE MAJOR BRANDS PEOPLE TALK ABOUT IN THE CONTEXT
OF AUTONOMOUS DRIVING?
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
mentions
Data clearly reflects the intense efforts of Google to be the first
to offer the technology and be successful at communicating
their advancements to the public, as well as positioning them-
selves as the key technological driver from the customer’s per-
spective.
Furthermore, it is important to notice that Apple, despite of not
having officially made any announcements regarding AD and
being supported only by rumors, comes in second place. This
makes the two biggest digital players the leading brands in the
AD discussion. With Tesla a third player out of the Silicon Valley,
is positioned in the Top 5 followed by the majority of the traditi-
onal automotive players of which only Mercedes and Audi are
positioned in the top ranks.
GOOGLE IS
MENTIONED MORE
THAN
ALL THE OTHER
BRANDS TOGETHER
33561
4476 4355 4294
3651 3428
2350 1889 1419 759
240 170
1937
1

HOW PEOPLE TALK ABOUT AUTONOMOUS DRIVING?
“Concepts” are defined as nouns which carry a polarization,
being either positive, negative or neutral, depending on the
adjectives or adverbs (sentiment carriers) with which they are
mentioned in a sentence. The most mentioned “concepts”
within the concept map (p.16) are positioned nearer to the
center while the importance decreases towards the outside.
The number in the circles represent the recurrence of each
concept in percentage.
The polarization of the “concepts” is reflected through colors.
Yellow are neutral, red are negative and green are positive
concepts. Therefore it can be observed that the most important
concepts in the AD field are discussed with a neutral position
and are without surprise “car”, which is mentioned in 76% or of
the comments, followed by “vehicle” in 20% of the comments
and “technology” in 10% of the comments.
An interesting fact to state is that positive internet discussions
occur twice as much as negative ones. This is in contrast to
many of the traditionally conducted and survey-based market
research studies, which show a much more sceptical picture of
consumer attitudes towards AD. This may be explained by the
fact that UGC is contributed by (lead) users who generally like
to deal with innovative and advanced topics. They face needs
and requirements months or even years before the bulk of the
marketplace encounters them.
THERE ARE TWICE
AS MANY POSITIVE
CONCEPTS
THAN NEGATIVE
ONES
+
−

innovation
driving
thing
people
driver
problem
car
issues
error
work
control driver
idea
vehicle
time
benefit2life
system
way
technology
cruise control
driving
people
sensor
day
automaker
step
cost
place
job
tech
computer
parking device
product
service
camera
month decade
lane
challenge
information
development
version
Google
safety
impact
week
project
numbermarket
speed
part seat
traffic
business
transit
transit1
control
question
future3
model2
world3
driver
time
year
road7
company4
driving7
way
technology
systems
thing
people
vehicle
hand
space
auto1
research1
robot2
level2
accident2
light
industry
feature
use
change
life
state
reason
amount
area
transportation
thing control AUTONOMOUS
DRIVING
75
neutral
17
positive
8
negative
WHAT ARE THE MOST MENTIONED CONCEPTS IN USER DISCUSSIONS?
2
2
2
2
1
23
3
3
3
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
2
1
2
2
2
highway
transport
1
1
datum2
22
2
1
1
1 22
2
2
2
2
3
5
city2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
5
9
9
7 20
car76
10
9
9
42
4
2
3
2
2
2
car7
1
2
1
1
2
1
2
4
3
2
2
2
1
2
1
the number in the circle
represent the % of mentions.
n
LEGEND OF CONCEPT MAP:
Nouns = Concepts
positive
neutral
negative

fully autonomous
safe
modern
classic
intelligent capable
best better
other
fully autonomous
automotive
new
connectedautonomous
automated
electric
driverless
self-driving
less
expensive
average
inevitable
controlledfatal bad
disruptive
sometimes unproven
perfect (neg.)
slowcomplex
dangerous
stolenparticular
ready (neg.)
fully autonomous (neg.)
commonplace
ready (neg.) radicalunproven
WHAT ARE THE MOST MENTIONED DRIVERS IN USER DISCUSSIONS?
These drivers act as indicators of readiness of the technology
from the user perspective. Within the top positive concepts
the main drivers that make this concept positive are “fully
autonomous”, “smart”, “safe” “modern”, etc.
On the other side the appearance of the driver “expensive”
among top negative concepts reflects the current user
perspective of the still high prices of the technology.
The main other negative drivers are “less”, “average”,
“inevitable”, and “dangerous”, etc.
The driver “electric” appears highly ranked in
the top concepts signalizing the continuous mentioning
of electric gears in the AD context.
CAR – VEHICLE – TECHNOLOGY
Adjectives or Adverbs = Drivers
ownintelligentleadadvanced
late
ready
autonomous
smart future
completely
present

TOP 5 POSITIVE TOP 5 NEGATIVE
TOP POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE CONCEPTS WITH THEIR DRIVERS
CAR6,7
FULLY AUTONOMOUS
SMART
SAFE
MODERN
CLASSIC
CAR 2,5
LESS
EXPENSIVE
AVERAGE
INEVITABLE
DANGEROUS
ISSUE 2,2
LEGAL
MAJOR
REGULATORY
MAIN
TECHNICAL
VEHICLE3,2
FULLY AUTONOMOUS
OWN
SAFE
INTELLIGENT
LEAD
ERROR 2,2
HUMAN
RESPONSIBLE
LESS
SMALL
SUCH
DRIVER 2,2
DRUNK
BAD
TERRIBLE
BLIND
AGGRESSIVE
+
+ –
-
+ -
+ -
+ -
WAY3,1
BEST
DIFFERENT
BETTER
EASY
GOOD
+ -
PROBLEM 3,5
BIG
REAL
OTHER
MAJOR
POTENTIAL
THING3,7
GOOD
GREAT
BEST
INTERESTING
RIGHT
TECHNOLOGY3,6
AUTONOMOUS
ADVANCED
FUTURE
LATE
READY
TOP 5 POSITIVE
AND NEGATIVE
CONCEPTS AND
DRIVERS
the number in the circle
represent the % of mentions.
n
LEGEND OF CONCEPT MAP:
Nouns = Concepts
Adjectives or Adverbs = Drivers positive neutral negative

WHAT WOULD USERS DO WITH THEIR NEW FREE-TIME?
The most frequently mentioned activities by users reveal the
word “Internet” which is mentioned approximately 7.000
times. The concepts “TV” and “Movie” reflect another main
category of activities the users discuss. The extensive chat
regarding blind people driving cars can be directly related to
Google’s successful campaign showing a blind man taking a
ride to a Taco Bell in a self-driving car. Surprising is the high
discussion volume on the wish of enjoying a glass of beer or
wine (“Enjoying Drinks”) and enabling elderly people to win
back some of their lost freedoms of movement. Hence, the
automated mobility seems to become an important catalyst of
future social interaction. The category of sleeping and eating
complete the more than 20.000 mentions on possible activities
in a self-driving car.
THE AVERAGE
US DRIVER SPENDS
AROUND
465 HOURS PER YEAR
DRIVING A CAR
Source: MIT Technology Review, March 2014

1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
mentions
Internet/ Email Enjoying DrinksMovie/ TV Blind Sleep Elderly Mobility Eat
0
4056
2543
2276
1602
1150
934
8315
WHAT WOULD USERS DO WITH THEIR NEW FREE-TIME?

USER QUOTES – SOME EXAMPLES
“If given a choice between spending 30k on a slow driverless
car, preferably with a hybrid engine, and a fast car that requires
a driver, I would buy the slow driverless car as an ONLY vehicle
and rent a fast vehicle when I need to go more than 30 miles.This
would not be practical for families that need to routinely drive
more than 30 miles to their destinations.The benefits of driverless
cars to smaller families in major metro areas is remarkable as
long as you are willing to wait a bit. Imagine a scenario with a
working couple and an elementary school child.”
“Proponents of driverless cars say these vehicles
will prevent most automobile accidents, as almost all
motor vehicle crashes are caused by human error and
are thus almost always preventable. Driverless cars
will also open up entire new worlds to people who
are blind or who suffer serious physical disabilities
that impair their ability to get around.”
“I recently heard that Elon Musk said that he
changed the conversation a bit when he was
talking to people. At first, he’d mention self-
driving cars, and people would respond a
bit negatively. It was when he started talking
about putting autopilot into cars that people
started to think it was not only a good idea,
but a really cool idea.The idea of a car driving
itself tends to be a scary notion, but the idea
of a car with autopilot on is intriguing and
awesome.”
“And yet, nobody in their right
mind would buy an autonomous
car that explicitly warns the
customer that his or her safety
is not its first priority.”“My mother had what could easily
be her last car; it is in good shape
and could easily last another
decade. Yet she would buy a
brand new au-tonomous car in a
heartbeat; or she would instantly
start using a autonomous car
service if it worked well.”

“In these cases, the parents, grandparents or siblings
have to act as “taxi driver” for the minors.This huge
driving service could be taken over by autonomous
vehicles. By using a self-driving car, the parent taking
care of the children would save a lot of time which he
could use for his own job or simply for his free time.
The benefits for the community are obvious.”
“That‘s because consumers aren‘t the only
target market for this technology at least in
terms of ownership. In the end, it doesn‘t
matter whether or not you would buy an
autonomous vehicle — it just matters if you
would pay to ride in one.”
“Yet in most countries, self-driving cars are strictly
confined to private roads. So what’s the problem? The
biggest barrier is not the technology – it’s the legal
issues. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Few of us
want poorly designed or malfunctioning cars swerving
all over our roads. So it makes sense for governments
to err on the side of caution.”
“Owning Apple has been good to me. I do not think
Google will ever make significant amounts of money
from anything but advertising.They were a company
built on one profitable idea that has allowed them
to play around in a thousand areas.That being said,
I would buy a driver-less car as soon as they‘re
available. I just don‘t have any faith in Google to be
the company that gets it to work well.”
“I have predicted that the commercial transportation
industry will be the first to widely adopt this technology
because the economic benefits are so enormous. There
is a huge qualified truck driver shortage, and the trucking
industrycanforeseeadaywhentherewillbenocatastrophic
truck accidents caused by driver error, or hours of service
rules that limit how long these trucks will be on the road.”
USER QUOTES – SOME EXAMPLES

3 CONTACT

CONTACT
Stefanie Mark
Marketing & PR HYVE
T: +49 (0) 89 / 189.081 - 440
E: Stefanie.Mark@hyve.net
HYVE Science Labs connect the academic, consumer
and business world to join forces in open value creation.
Our goal is to intertwine academic research and practical work
in the business world. In our experience, a stronger connection
between the two worlds can unlock extraordinary results and
performances. Thus, we want to foster bidirectional exchanges
to supercharge the effects of academic research and business.
HYVE –The Innovation Company
The HYVE Group offers an integrated approach to innovation,
combining competencies in the areas of market research,
engineering, industrial design, product development and soft-
ware solutions for online communities and idea management
under one roof.
© 2015 HYVE AG. All rights reserved.
HYVE AG
Schellingstraße 45
80799 München Germany
T: +49 (0) 89 / 189.081 - 100
E: info@hyve.de
www.hyve.net
www.hyvecommunity.net
www.hyvedesign.net
www.hyveresearch.net

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