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To ensure a secure and resilient United Kingdom - by
protecting our people, economy, infrastructure, territory and
way of life from all major risks that can affect us directly
National Security Strategy- High level
objectives
To shape a stable world, by acting to reduce the likelihood of
risks affecting the UK or British interests overseas, and
applying our instruments of power and influence to shape
the global environment
2
1
UK Resilience – Delivered Together
Identifying
risks
Evaluating
Resilience
Assessing
risks
Building
Resilience
Comms
Generic Capabilities
Specific Plans
Business Continuity
Crisis Management
Horizon
scanning
Systematic risk
identification
Systematic Risk
Assessment
Performance Management
Exercises
Real-life events
Requirements&
Solutions
Assessing the Risks
 Fatalities
 Casualties
 Social disruption*
 Economic
 Psychological
1 2 3 4 5
* Social disruption:
 Disruption to Transport
 Disruption to supplies of drinking
water, fuel, gas, electricity,
communications, money
 Disruptions to schools, health
services
 Environmental damage
 Evacuation
HAZARD: ‘Likelihood’
 Historical Evidence
 Predictable events, for example weather
forecasts
 Expert advice
THREAT: ‘plausibility’
 “Plausibility”
 Intelligence about capability
 Intelligence about intent
 Intelligence about vulnerability
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
1 2 3 4 5
RISK
Likelihood/ Plausibility
Impact
5
4
3
2
1
1 2 3 4 5
=
Consequences
• What are the generic consequences?
• Reasonable worst case warning time?
• Regional variation?
• Military involvement?
• Interdependency?
National Resilience Planning Assumptions
Risks
• What risks should drive planning?
• What is the reasonable worst case,
taken across those risks
plus
Functional
Planning
Assumptions
Essential
Services
Planning
Assumptions
Building Resilience – Capability Development
5
National
Resilience Capabilities
Programme (NRCP)
Co-ordinates cross-HMG work
to build and maintain
capability against the common
consequences set out in the
NRPAS
National Risk Planning Assumptions
Hazards
Matrix
Managing Flood Risk
Rail Resilience Programme
Flood
Water Rescue Teams
Support the movement
and retrieval of people
and property
High Volume Pump
Tactical Advisors
Provide strategic
advice on deployment
of High Volume Pumps
Build flood defences
Early warning
Response
Preparedness
Flood rescue National
Asset Register
Provides a centrally managed
database of nationally
available Rescue boats and
teams for deployment to
support local response
Sector Resilience
Flood alerts
and
warnings
from the
Environment
Agency
Cold weather
Department of Health Cold Weather Plan
......the average number of
excess winter deaths in
England and Wales exceeds
25,000, and this increased to
36,700 for 2008/9..........
over 2 million tonnes of salt stored for the
winter....
Electricity margin this winter is 5%
Cold weather payments - £25 cold
weather payment for an average of 0C or
below, over 7 consecutive days
Minimal parliamentary interest significant parliamentary interest dominating party/national debate
Local Response
only
Region
Cross Force
Cross -
Region
National
Coverage
Local Response with
two way information
Channel to Central Gov
Serious – Level 1
Lead Government Dept led
central response
Significant – Level 2
Co-ordinated central
response from COBR
Catastrophic – Level 3
Central direction
from COBR
Single Scene
Minimal LGD operational interest DCLG RED Ops LGD Ops Collective response Central direction
Minimal LGD policy interest DCLG monitoring LGD actively involved Strategic challenge Overwhelming
Impact
Scale
Local response
• Occasional briefing to DCLG or Lead
dept
Serious – Level 1 Emergency
• LGD* response activated
• CCS participate LGD X Govt
Teleconf
• CO support and direction to LGD
• Cabinet Office Ad Hoc briefing to
Ministers / No 10
• CO led teleconferences where
required
Serious – Level 2 Emergency
• CO co-ordinate COBR response
• Ministerial and Official meetings
(inc teleconf where necessary)
• CO led sub groups as
appropriate
• CO engagement and support to
SAGE
• CO/No10 Co-ordination of
Comms – Meetings & Teleconf
Catastrophic -Level 3 Emergency
• Top down Response
• Enhanced CO co-ordination
drawing across units
• Additional Command and control
arrangements – provision of
national assets and resources
• Co-ordination of legal –
emergency powers provision
Central Response – Trigger Levels & Co-ordination mechanisms
• DCLG RED – participation in
Strategic Coordinating Groups (SCGs)
• National co –ordination of police,
fire mutual aid
* LGD – Lead Government Department
+
Local Response
Single Scene Point of activation
where terrorism is
suspected
+ +
e.g. Road Traffic Accident
e.g. Large Scale Fire
e.g. Flooding
e.g. Prison Riot
e.g. Animal Disease (Foot & Mouth)
e.g. July Bombings
e.g. London Riots
e.g. Pandemic Flu
e.g. Volcanic Ash
e.g. Industrial Action
Organisation
Sub-national
Co-ordination
Government
Liaison Team
COBR
Silver Command
Bronze Command Bronze Command
Wide-area Emergency
Single Scene
Operational
Control at Scene
Operational
Co-ordination
Integrated
Overall Command
(usually) led by Police
National
Strategic Level
Strategic
Co-ordination
Centre (Gold Group)
GOLD Command
Strategic
Co-ordination
Centre (Gold Group)
GOLD Command
Strategic
Co-ordination
Centre (Gold Group)
GOLD Command
Strategic
Co-ordination
Centre (Gold Group)
GOLD Command

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Peter Tallantire, UK Cabinet Office

  • 1. To ensure a secure and resilient United Kingdom - by protecting our people, economy, infrastructure, territory and way of life from all major risks that can affect us directly National Security Strategy- High level objectives To shape a stable world, by acting to reduce the likelihood of risks affecting the UK or British interests overseas, and applying our instruments of power and influence to shape the global environment 2 1
  • 2. UK Resilience – Delivered Together Identifying risks Evaluating Resilience Assessing risks Building Resilience Comms Generic Capabilities Specific Plans Business Continuity Crisis Management Horizon scanning Systematic risk identification Systematic Risk Assessment Performance Management Exercises Real-life events Requirements& Solutions
  • 3. Assessing the Risks  Fatalities  Casualties  Social disruption*  Economic  Psychological 1 2 3 4 5 * Social disruption:  Disruption to Transport  Disruption to supplies of drinking water, fuel, gas, electricity, communications, money  Disruptions to schools, health services  Environmental damage  Evacuation HAZARD: ‘Likelihood’  Historical Evidence  Predictable events, for example weather forecasts  Expert advice THREAT: ‘plausibility’  “Plausibility”  Intelligence about capability  Intelligence about intent  Intelligence about vulnerability 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 RISK Likelihood/ Plausibility Impact
  • 4. 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 = Consequences • What are the generic consequences? • Reasonable worst case warning time? • Regional variation? • Military involvement? • Interdependency? National Resilience Planning Assumptions Risks • What risks should drive planning? • What is the reasonable worst case, taken across those risks plus Functional Planning Assumptions Essential Services Planning Assumptions
  • 5. Building Resilience – Capability Development 5 National Resilience Capabilities Programme (NRCP) Co-ordinates cross-HMG work to build and maintain capability against the common consequences set out in the NRPAS
  • 6. National Risk Planning Assumptions Hazards Matrix
  • 7. Managing Flood Risk Rail Resilience Programme Flood Water Rescue Teams Support the movement and retrieval of people and property High Volume Pump Tactical Advisors Provide strategic advice on deployment of High Volume Pumps Build flood defences Early warning Response Preparedness Flood rescue National Asset Register Provides a centrally managed database of nationally available Rescue boats and teams for deployment to support local response Sector Resilience Flood alerts and warnings from the Environment Agency
  • 8. Cold weather Department of Health Cold Weather Plan ......the average number of excess winter deaths in England and Wales exceeds 25,000, and this increased to 36,700 for 2008/9.......... over 2 million tonnes of salt stored for the winter.... Electricity margin this winter is 5% Cold weather payments - £25 cold weather payment for an average of 0C or below, over 7 consecutive days
  • 9. Minimal parliamentary interest significant parliamentary interest dominating party/national debate Local Response only Region Cross Force Cross - Region National Coverage Local Response with two way information Channel to Central Gov Serious – Level 1 Lead Government Dept led central response Significant – Level 2 Co-ordinated central response from COBR Catastrophic – Level 3 Central direction from COBR Single Scene Minimal LGD operational interest DCLG RED Ops LGD Ops Collective response Central direction Minimal LGD policy interest DCLG monitoring LGD actively involved Strategic challenge Overwhelming Impact Scale Local response • Occasional briefing to DCLG or Lead dept Serious – Level 1 Emergency • LGD* response activated • CCS participate LGD X Govt Teleconf • CO support and direction to LGD • Cabinet Office Ad Hoc briefing to Ministers / No 10 • CO led teleconferences where required Serious – Level 2 Emergency • CO co-ordinate COBR response • Ministerial and Official meetings (inc teleconf where necessary) • CO led sub groups as appropriate • CO engagement and support to SAGE • CO/No10 Co-ordination of Comms – Meetings & Teleconf Catastrophic -Level 3 Emergency • Top down Response • Enhanced CO co-ordination drawing across units • Additional Command and control arrangements – provision of national assets and resources • Co-ordination of legal – emergency powers provision Central Response – Trigger Levels & Co-ordination mechanisms • DCLG RED – participation in Strategic Coordinating Groups (SCGs) • National co –ordination of police, fire mutual aid * LGD – Lead Government Department + Local Response Single Scene Point of activation where terrorism is suspected + + e.g. Road Traffic Accident e.g. Large Scale Fire e.g. Flooding e.g. Prison Riot e.g. Animal Disease (Foot & Mouth) e.g. July Bombings e.g. London Riots e.g. Pandemic Flu e.g. Volcanic Ash e.g. Industrial Action
  • 10. Organisation Sub-national Co-ordination Government Liaison Team COBR Silver Command Bronze Command Bronze Command Wide-area Emergency Single Scene Operational Control at Scene Operational Co-ordination Integrated Overall Command (usually) led by Police National Strategic Level Strategic Co-ordination Centre (Gold Group) GOLD Command Strategic Co-ordination Centre (Gold Group) GOLD Command Strategic Co-ordination Centre (Gold Group) GOLD Command Strategic Co-ordination Centre (Gold Group) GOLD Command